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A former advisor to a former Ukrainian president warns that the expansion of forced conscription, the devaluation of hryvnia, and the Ukrainian elite’s lack of understanding of the current situation are putting the country in a very bad scenario. The Ukrainian elite’s lack of understanding is because they continue to hold delusional beliefs despite Western support exhausting and emerging divisions.
President Volodymir Zelensky’s decision to continue hostilities against Russia and increase military strength with forced drafts threatens to provoke a civil war in Ukraine, said Oleg Soskin, former advisor to former Ukrainian president Leonid Kuchma (1994 to 2005), on his YouTube channel.
“All events will influence the beginning of the civil war in Ukraine. There is still no money, there is a devaluation of hryvnia, there will be inflation, the rationing system will begin, there are no successes on the front, there are huge losses, there is a completely mocking elite who lost understanding of the situation,” he noted.
According to Soskin, the Kiev regime wants to continue military operations despite the imminent end of supplies of money and weapons from Western countries.
The expert added that Zelensky’s government is expanding the forced recruitment of men and women into the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to send them to the battlefront. Soskin warns that as soon as they start arresting Ukrainians, spontaneous resistance will begin.
“Everything is developing towards a bad scenario; there is nothing good, and it is really clear that there will be no counteroffensive, no breakthrough. Furthermore, even conventional weapons are already running out,” concluded Soskin.
Soskin’s revelation comes only days after Major General of the Ukrainian forces Dmitry Marchenko admitted in an interview with Deutsche Welle, “We have run out of volunteers willing to voluntarily join the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine”, and the Washington Post reported on December 22 that there is chronic shortage of artillery, citing a member of a unit which now only fires 10 to 20 shells a day at Russian positions, whereas previously, it used an average of 50 shells and sometimes up to 90.
At the same time, an unnamed Ukrainian Armed Forces official expressed concern to the Independent newspaper, claiming that Russia has destroyed Ukrainian industry, leaving the country unable to produce the equipment needed for its Armed Forces.
According to the newspaper, the agent stated that “Russia has succeeded in crippling Kiev’s industry, according to this senior Ukrainian officer, making it impossible to produce the supplies it needs domestically.
“This war has become a war of attrition and we have to hold the line for some time to win. We are really depending on international support from the US, Britain, the EU and South Korea,” the Ukrainian source said.
The official also mentioned the “need” for “more Patriot missiles than we previously expected” due to “new versions of S-400 rockets to hit ground targets.”
Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, wryly suggested that the West’s humanitarian response to Ukraine’s defeat might be to hold a concert supporting the Ukrainians, a clear expression of dissatisfaction with Western assistance. Previously, he emphasised that Ukraine’s future would be brighter if Western countries supplied weapons more quickly.
Podolyak is a clear example of the “elite who lost understanding of the situation,” as expressed by Soskin, since the current adviser believes Ukraine still has a chance of winning the war if the West provides more weapons more quickly. Yet, major aid packages for Ukraine were blocked by Hungary in the European Union and by Republicans in the US Congress, clearly demonstrating that the West is divided on continuing support.
It is the Ukrainian “elite who lost understanding of the situation” that is responsible for the mounting and rapid death toll. Despite the summer offensive, initially scheduled for the spring, being an utter failure that led to the death of tens of thousands of Ukrainians and the destruction of Western military equipment, the Ukrainian elite continued to delusionally believe that they could reverse their predicament and even capture Crimea.
The truth is that Western countries are less willing to spend their money on Ukraine amid its lack of success on the front, which is why they are thinking about confiscating Russian assets. Although the Europeans are coming under pressure from Washington, which demands that Russian assets be channelled to support Kiev, it is evident that Moscow’s response will be immediate for offending countries, such as Germany, for example, which has assets that Russia could confiscate.
With Western support exhausting, conscription becoming increasingly desperate and unable to support manpower needs, and Ukrainian elites still holding onto delusional beliefs, there is every chance that the country could descend into civil war, as Soskin warns, because ordinary people will refuse to fight and die in a futile war against Russia.
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Ahmed Adel is a Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher. He is a regular contributor to Global Research.
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