Dangerous Crossroads: The World on the Brink of War. The New Cold War Goes Hot?
Without truthfulness towards history there can be no sustainable peace
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We bring to the attention of Global Research this important article (translated from German, minor edits by GR) by renowned author and geopolitical analyst Wolfgang Effenberger
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On Friday 3rd December 2021, the seventh round of the mentioned talks over the ongoing talks between Iran and the group 4+1 (Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China) in Vienna has ended after five days of continued negotiations including two days for “sanctions removal working group” and “nuclear working group”.
Based on reports, Iran has delivered two documents to the group 4+1 containing Tehran’s conditions to pave the ground for further cooperation to settle both sides’ concerns. In response, representatives of the group 4+1 nations have preferred to go back to their capitals for more consultations.
History
On July 14, 2015, after years of persistent negotiations, the E3 (Germany, France, UK) +3 (US, Russia, China) and Iran were able to resolve the dangerous conflict over Iran’s nuclear program through negotiations with the Vienna Nuclear Agreement (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPoA) – apparently a stellar moment for diplomacy (German foreign ministry ).
But only a few months later, in October 2014, the U.S. issued its long-term strategy paper entitled:
“TRADOC 525-3-1 Win in a Complex World 2020-2040”
This important document highlighted so-called emerging threats from China, Russia the DPRK and Iran:
“While the United States must assess new and emerging threats, many current operational challenges will exist into the future. Harbingers of future conflict include competing powers (e.g., China and Russia), regional powers (e.g., Iran and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK)), transnational terrorist networks (e.g., al Qaida, its affiliates, and transnational criminals), and cyber threats. The following are examples only and illustrate a limited number of threats for which future Army forces must prepare.
China
China’s goal over time is to expand its influence to establish stability along its periphery.While China prefers to avoid direct confrontation with the U.S., it uses civilian assets to challenge actions such as U.S. surveillance flights. Moreover, China’s behavior has created friction with regional neighbors including U.S. allies and partners
Russia
Russian annexation of the Crimean Peninsula and use of conventional and unconventional land forces in Ukraine suggest that Russia is determined to expand its territory and assert its power on the Eurasian landmass. Russia deployed and integrated a range of diplomatic, information, military, and economic means to conduct what some analysts have described as “non-linear” operations. Russia conducted operations to pursue its war aims below the threshold that would elicit a concerted North Atlantic Treaty Organization response. In addition, Russia used cyberspace capabilities and social media to influence perceptions at home and abroad and provide cover for large-scale military operations. While the long-term results of the incursion into Ukraine are not yet certain, Russia demonstrated the centrality of land forces in its effort to assert power and advance its interests in former Soviet states. Without a viable land force capable of opposing the Russian army and its irregular proxies, such adventurism is likely to continue undeterred.
Iran
Iran’s management of its nuclear aspirations will shape its role as a rising power in the Middle East. Iran, empowered by expanding sectarian conflicts in the greater Middle East, poses a hybrid threat to U.S. interests and allies in the region. As it continues to apply pressure on the region to erode and supplant U.S. power, Iran uses combinations of economic and diplomatic overtures with irregular forces to advance its interests. Iran develops partnerships with disenfranchised populations, religious factions, and criminal elements to create disorder focused on subverting the influence of the U.S. and partner nations. Iran avoids direct military confrontations while developing advanced capabilities and pursuing comprehensive military modernization. Iran’s modernization efforts include the use of automated systems on land, sea, and air; ballistic missiles; and the development of nuclear capability.“
In the meantime, the dangers arising from the rearmament and confrontation between the “West” (USA, NATO, EU) and Russia-China, are becoming increasingly evident.
Recent Developments: New Cold War Goes Hot
On November 8, 2021, for the first time since the end of the Cold War, the 56th U.S. Artillery Command was reactivated – a major United States Army unit based in the Mainz-Kastel district of the city of Wiesbaden, reporting to a two-star general.
The commander, Major General Stephen Maranian, stated on November 3, 2021:
“The reactivation of the 56th Artillery Command will provide U.S. forces in Europe and Africa with significant capabilities for multidomain operations… It will also enable synchronization of joint and multinational fires and effects, as well as the employment of future ground-to-ground long-range fires.”
On November 10, 2021, under the headline “Dark Eagle has landed,” the British newspaper The Sun reported on a U.S. nuclear force reactivated with hypersonic long-range Dark Eagle missiles in Germany for the first time since the Cold War.
The U.S. activates a nuclear unit in Germany. (Screenshot via The Sun)
According to the U.S. Army, Multi-Domain Operations (MDO) are intended to ensure that joint forces [Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines, and Space Force] can
“meet and defeat a near-equal adversary capable of attacking the United States in all domains [air, land, sea, space, and cyberspace], both competitively and in armed conflict.”
The concept also describes how U.S. ground forces will be able to meet and defeat adversaries in the future. The concept goes on to describe how U.S. ground forces, as part of the joint and multinational team, can deter and defeat highly capable, peer adversaries in the 2025-2050 timeframe. To that end, multi-domain operations are intended to provide commanders with numerous options:
“for conducting simultaneous and sequential operations using surprise effects and the rapid and continuous integration of capabilities across domains to plunge the adversary into multiple dilemmas to gain physical and psychological advantage as well as influence and control over the operational environment.”
The Sun reportet on 4. August 2021:
Today, we are witnessing a throwback to one of the most dangerous periods of the Cold War, when in the early 1980s the rearmament resolution was rushed through and the obsolete Pershing I missiles were replaced by the Pershing II.
The increase in range from 800 to 1200 kilometers was not dramatic for the layman, but it was for the experts in the Kremlin.
Because now the bunkered command posts around Moscow could be taken out in just a few minutes.
Reagan’s dream of a decapitation strike had become reality. In Washington, the vision “Victory is possible” haunted the halls of the Capitol.
The reactivation of the 56th U.S. Artillery Command is logical and the threat to Russia posed by Germany is compelling.
The consequences of a Third World War for Germany and Russia will far exceed all the suffering and misery of the 20th century.
It is time to finally form a community of nations born of the will for peace.
This will only be possible, when people stop being frightened, when they start questioning the harmless mask of “defense“ policy and say goodbye to a one-sided culture of remembrance, which in reality is the cloak of forgetting and a hotbed of appeasement.(10)
At this point I would like to remind you of [former Foreign Minister] Joseph Fischer, who justified the war of aggression against Serbia, which was contrary to international law, with “Never again Auschwitz“.
Without truthfulness towards history there can be no sustainable peace.
For a Peaceful Coexistence of the European states in the Council of Europe, the imperial plans of a small plutocratic US/UK elite must be stopped.
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Global Research Editor’s Note
It is worth noting that in December 2018, the US Military published a followup TRADOC document entitled
The U.S Army in Multi-Domain Operations 2028 in which it describes
“how US Army forces, as part of the Joint Force, will militarily compete, penetrate, dis-integrate, and exploit our adversaries in the future”
Strategic competitors like Russia and China are synthesizing emerging technologies with their analysis of military doctrine and operations. They are deploying capabilities to fight the US through multiple layers of stand-off in all domains – space, cyber, air, sea, and land. The military problem we face is defeating multiple layers of stand-off in all domains in order to maintain the coherence of our operations.
Therefore, the American way of war must evolve and adapt. The U.S. Army in Multi-Domain Operations, 2028 is the first step in our doctrinal evolution. It describes how US Army forces, as part of the Joint Force, will militarily compete, penetrate, dis-integrate, and exploit our adversaries in the future.
we will ensure America’s Army is ready, lethal, and prepared to destroy its enemies now and in the future, in any domain, anytime, anywhere.
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