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The US has gained the initiative over China in the Taiwan question.
Officially, defense secretary Austin at the Shangri-la meeting commits to the “one-China principle”. But everybody knows that this is a US lie.
Biden has already verbally committed the US to defend Taiwan’s independence. The reality is that the US is stepwise increasing the pressure on China all the time.
- Building up Taiwan militarily.
- Gradually moving Taiwan towards independence.
- Sanctioning technologies against China and hindering tech-cooperation with China and blocking Chinese scientists and Ph.D. researchers in the USA.
- Banning more and more types of investments in China. And so on.
Chinese defense minister Li’s response at the Shangri-la meeting gave a weak impression, warning that any conflict between the two nations would bring “unbearable disaster for the world”. Frankly, this only exhibits that a confrontation with the US would be catastrophic – for China. And the comments in Global Times were weak as well. The Chinese are verbally moving back and forth and getting nowhere.
While the US increases pressure over China on Taiwan, the US also increases pressure on China by drawing Japan, S.Korea, the Philippines, Australia, New Zeland, and Germany, France and the EU into the Taiwan question. With a new agreement, the US has even managed to draw Papua New Guinea over to the US side. Papua New Guina has a strategic forward location on the Second Island Chain between Australia and China.
Moreover, the US is actively courting India to join NATO+, something which definitely will bring sweat on the foreheads of the Chinese leadership. And should the Modi government resist US temptations of arms supplies and training, the US is for the sake of good order courting Modi’s opposition, Rahul Gandhi, who recently got a warm welcome by George Soros and US-Indian liberals on a tour to the USA.
Soros and the US NED will have millions of dollars to donate secretly through various Indian diaspora channels in the US to support Rahul Gandhi and smear Modi, if Modi doesn’t follow the US line. And if Rahul Gandhi declares something “nasty” about Modi, it will be followed up by US media and “NGOs”. India shouldn’t believe it is impenetrable to the normal US modus-vivendi of “color revolution”.
In the mid-term, things look even more bleak for China. The US is right now executing a disruptive AI revolution, which will strengthen the West immensely over China in all areas – economics, military, research, diplomacy, media, and global public manipulation. The US is already moving to the next disruption, superiority over China in Quantum Computing. This will enable the US to break all Chinese codes and do extreme damage to China militarily and in civilian life. Third, the US is about to gain complete dominance in Space with SpaceX.
The US is losing Ukraine bitterly
The strategy of the US is now reversed. At first, the US perceived Russia as the “weaker part”. The US wanted to destroy Russia first in order to take on China next. But the US has found out the painful way, that Russia was granite, too hard to bite.
The US has therefore reversed strategic priorities. The US has not given up on taking down Russia, but the US has given up on taking Russia in a quick direct move. Instead, the US now concentrates on taking on China with an increasing strangulation of both China and Russia.
“Derisking” China is just a name for gradual decoupling and preparation of sanctions.
On top, the US is successfully turning Taiwan into a double tool of
(1) arming an “unsinkable aircraft carrier” right off China’s coast,
(2) using the case of Taiwan as clarion-signal to gather US friends and allies and tighten US control over them.
Strategy is much about initiative. China is successful in the Middle East and expanding BRICS. But it is the US which alone controls the pace of events dictating China’s immediate strategic environment.
Biden, Blinken, and Sullivan have managed to gain the initiative over China.
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Karsten Riise is a Master of Science (Econ) from Copenhagen Business School and has a university degree in Spanish Culture and Languages from Copenhagen University. He is the former Senior Vice President Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of Mercedes-Benz in Denmark and Sweden.
He is a regular contributor to Global Research.
Featured image is from the author
