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US military aid to Ukraine may be close to drying up. According to a recent report by an important American media outlet, until July, Washington will be unable to continue sending large amounts of military aid to Kiev, thus risking the supply necessary for Kiev to continue fighting in the proxy war with Russia. It remains to be seen whether the absence of new aid packages will be enough to put an end to the conflict or whether the regime’s military will be forced to remain in the trenches, even without proper supplies.
The report circulating in the media was based on information provided by anonymous sources familiar with Pentagon’s affairs. They claim that “it won’t be easy” to recover the tens of billions of dollars already spent on Ukraine, which is why severe cuts are expected in the near future. It is alleged that only 6 billion of the 48 billion reserved for the assistance program would be left. With the depletion of this value, it will be difficult to allocate new resources in the program – at least on a scale as significant as it has been until now.
July is expected to be the deadline for this depletion. In about two months the money to send more military resources will end and then there is a risk of an abrupt interruption of the supply, which tends to severely damage the regime’s forces on the battlefield. So, if no effective results are achieved by the Ukrainian armed forces in the so-called “spring counteroffensive”, surely the situation will become even worse during the summer.
“Reupping [the money] won’t be easy (…) [US] has about $6 billion left (…) based on the rate of announcements, the money to draw down existing US stockpiles will expire in July. That would mean the flow of equipment could be disrupted if Kiev has to wait an extended period for a new tranche of funding”, source said.
It was added by the informants that the White House is already discussing a new aid package for Kiev, which, depending on the allocated amount, could further accelerate the depletion of military assistance reserves. It also must be remembered that in early May, Washington announced its plan to create a “modest” 1.2 billion fund to send long-term aid to Ukraine, which would focus on anti-aircraft equipment. It seems that, in the current American situation, the more aid is announced, the closer assistance to Ukraine seems to be coming to an end.
These discussions and forecasts are still taking place in the midst of the country’s serious financial crisis. Republicans and Democrats seem less and less in deal about their attempts to find solutions to national problems. So far, a final project on the country’s debt ceiling has not been presented, which could result in a default. Insiders also added that the “Congress will spend the next several months debating the [US] fiscal 2024 defense budget, a wrinkle that could complicate Ukraine funding”.
In fact, the conflict in Ukraine only keeps going because of Western help. Without the constant supply of weapons, money and mercenaries, Kiev would have been forced to surrender long ago. Maintaining the conflict no longer seems pragmatically interesting for either the Ukrainian regime or its sponsors. As much as the American military-industrial complex is profiting from the massive flow of arms production and exports, the strategic interests of the US are already beginning to be affected, since exorbitant expenses are being used with Ukraine instead of being used to solve the country’s financial and social problems.
However, for the US and NATO, this no longer seems to be a matter of strategic calculation, but of an existential decision. Allowing the rapid defeat of Ukraine will mean consolidating the process of geopolitical transition towards Multipolarity. Furthermore, a quick victory for the Russian forces would allow Moscow to alleviate its troops and prepare them appropriately for future efforts on other possible frontlines. And this is precisely one of the biggest fears of NATO, since the organization plans to keep the Russians distracted and busy, while fomenting conflicts that could “save” the unipolar order.
The Atlantic alliance is trying to promote the creation of new frontlines across Eurasia. Tensions are worsening between Moldova and Transnistria, between Georgia and the secessionist regions, and between Armenia and Azerbaijan. But so far these measures have failed, and no new flanks have emerged in the war with Russia. It seems that for Washington keeping Moscow in combat and attrition is a priority, so until eventually new flanks emerge, aid to Kiev is unlikely to cease despite possibly reducing. And even if it ceases, there will be no “carte blanche” for the puppet state to accept negotiating or surrendering.
In other words, even if Washington’s help “dries up”, certainly the Ukrainian troops will continue to be forced to fight in a precarious situation, without adequate supplies – fulfilling the promise to fight “to the last Ukrainian”.
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Lucas Leiroz is a journalist, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, geopolitical consultant. You can follow Lucas on Twitter and Telegram.
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