Will the Ultra-orthodox Haredim be Netanyahu’s Black Swan?
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The Haredim represent only 14% of Israeli society but would be a state within the state that tries to take over all sensitive areas of power of the Jewish state (Interior, Housing, Mossad and the commands of the Tzahal or Jewish army) to impose Halakha or Jewish law on more than 43% of the population who declare themselves secular, which would be paradigmatic in the fact that the Israeli state does not allow civil marriage.
The ultra-orthodox Jews would be an idle caste (6 out of 10 do not work and study the Torah) that would enjoy prebendas and privileges and would have the secular population as servants to pay their maintenance, health and education as well as the defense of Israel’s borders by being exempted from military service under the Ben Gurion Law in 1948, an exemption that was overturned in 2012 by the Israeli Supreme Court due to its lack of equity. However, Netanyahu, under pressure from the two major ultra-orthodox parties, Shass and United Torah Judaism, proceeded to freeze a series of reforms undertaken by Lapid on economic cuts among the ultra-orthodox community, amend the reforms in the conversion laws and universal enrolment law.
The law forced nearly 66,000 ultra-orthodox youth aged 18 to 26 into the army, due to a wave of social protest from an Israeli middle class who complained about the exaggerated privileges they received despite not contributing neither the public coffers nor the “weight” of national security, since ultra-orthodox would be exempted from military service.
Thus, according to a recent poll, 70 per cent of the Jewish population believes that ultra-Orthodox should contribute to the country’s security and perform military service during Israel’s war in Gaza. Thus, following the entry into force of this Law on compulsory enlistment and the active resistance of the main Jewish rabbis and the two major ultra-orthodox parties, Shass and United Judaism of the Torah, would not be out of place their exit from the Coalition Government and the calling of new elections.
Given the growing disaffection of Israeli society towards Netanyahu due to its disastrous management of the crisis with Hamas and its lack of interest in rescuing Jewish hostages alive, according to the latest polls Netanyahu’s Likud is out of power. The formation of a Salvation Government between Gantz, Lapid and the Arab parties whose primary task would be to rewrite the Oslo Accords that make possible the peaceful coexistence of two peoples in two states.
This would mean that Netanyahu, a nefarious politician who attempted an autocratic coup d’état to subsequently establish a presidential regime, could face a criminal trial in which he will be accused of negligence and crimes against human rights. Such a trial could result in a harsh criminal sentence for Netanyahu and his final exit from the Israeli political scene, Not being excluded that the interregnum be used by the opportunist Bibi to declare open war against Lebanon to avoid the call of elections and suspend the judicial process in which he is accused of bribery, fraud and breach of trust.
Thus, Joe Biden, in an interview published by Time magazine, admitted that
“Netanyahu would be prolonging the war for political reasons and to stay in power at the head of a complex coalition government”.
Consequently, after the end of the Gaza campaign, it would have decided to invade South Lebanon to displace the 400,000 inhabitants of South Lebanon across the Litani River, hoping to gain time until the foreseeable victory in November of Donald Trump, In the certainty that he will be able to count on his blessings to exonerate him from all guilt before the International Criminal Court.
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Germán Gorraiz López is an analyst. He is a regular contributor to Global Research.
Featured image: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a message on Israel’s war with Hamas, January 10, 2024. (Video screenshot)