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In Ukraine, Russia is advancing on nearly all fronts, the West’s armament deliveries have fallen 87% in 2023 compared to 2022, with a fall in the supply of artillery shells of 30% as the USA diverted supplies to Israel. In Congress, Biden’s Democrat party cannot get a $61bn package for Ukraine passed since the Republicans demand, as part of the total, sums for the existential crisis on the USA’s southern border (where some 2m migrants are crossing yearly) and because Biden cannot say what the war aim in Ukraine is.

The Ukrainian losses now amount to about 400,000 troops killed or missing while some independent estimates put Russian losses at up to 50,000. The Ukrainian “counteroffensive” has been a disaster with Russia gaining more ground than Ukraine since it began.   

The extent of the sudden realisation that the West has foolishly believed its own propaganda but must now recognise impending defeat is clear from the hopelessly naive Daniel Hannan in the Sunday Telegraph: On 15th July 2023 he wrote: 

“Take away Russia’s nuclear weapons – for  Putin is finished and his country may soon collapse.”

But on 9th December 2023 he was forced to admit: 

“Putin’s Russia is closing in on a devastating victory. Europe’s foundations are trembling”

Even where (in the Kherson area and around Rabotino) Ukraine has made ground their troops are either being decimated in Krynki on the East bank of the Dniepr or retreating again around Rabotino. 

The Odessa publication “Dumskaya” writes that: 

The operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to maintain a bridgehead on the left bank of the Dniepr is meaningless and only leads to large losses. Marines cross the river and most are killed as they approach the shore. Those who survived and crossed over will be ironed with everything that is in the Russian arsenal. People are just constantly being thrown across the river – wave after wave. There is no talk of any further breakthrough; now the forces are being wasted simply on staying there. For what?

In this regard, the ongoing attempts to throw the Marines onto the left bank are something beyond good and evil,”

Following the pattern of hopeless resistance in other battles (Mariupol, Bakhmut) Zelensky refuses the advice of his generals to retreat and consolidate and instead throws decreasingly effective troops to their deaths for the sake of “heroic” media headlines.

No wonder so many have died and Zelensky is at loggerheads with the Chief of the Armed Forces Valerii Zaluzhnyi with whom he no longer communicates directly. Increasingly other Ukrainian leaders like former President Poroshenko and the Mayor of Kiev, Klitschko are taking Zaluzhnyi’s side and the massive losses at the front have led to demonstrations in Kiev and elsewhere by the relatives of the dead and missing. 

Zelensky Replacement

Following Zelensky’s failed trip to Washington and the frosty reception he got, he is now threatened both by insurrection at home and lack of both military and political support from his western allies.

The former CIA Intelligence Officer Larry Johnson, still with evident contacts within the Agency, says Zelensky  has asked for security guarantees for his escape from Ukraine. The Italian publication Antidiplomatico writes that the Ukrainian leader was found a “safe” successor in the person of his head of administration Andrey Yermak.

So desperate is the Biden administration to finance and arm Ukraine for the further slaughter of its citizens that the Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin actually threatened congressmen in a closed committee session that if they did not authorise more funds for Ukraine “we will send your uncles cousins and sons to fight in Ukraine”. Needless to say this disgraceful threat further turned Congressmen and women against the government.

In Ukraine there are already 62,000 women in the Ukraine Armed Forces and women are now working down mines, replacing the men conscripted into the army!

The desperation of the Kiev Government can be seen not just in the recruitment of men up to the age of 70 and the vicious pressgangs dragging men off the streets but in this Ministerial Order which states that

“In order to avoid suicide attempts in combat positions, new arrivals do not issue ammunition to mobilised (ie conscripts) military personnel”

Zelensky’s former spokesman Arestovich has admitted that there are some 100 deserters per day by troops in the field.

“Our problem is that, let me give you some figures – 100 people who have arbitrarily left military units per day in Ukraine. 100 people per day – that’s a brigade per month.”

UK Will Return Ukrainian Refugees to Fight

There are 650 thousand Ukrainians of conscription age living in the European Union who fled from mobilisation after Russian troops entered Ukraine, with 190,000 in Germany and also thousands in the UK.

Following my correspondence with my MP and the UK Home Office it is now clear that the UK Government is prepared to extradite Ukrainian refugees to fight. In the text of the letter from the Security Minister to my MP about extradition;

“A requested person will not be extradited if doing so would breach their human rights, if the request issued politically motivated or if they would be at risk of facing the death penalty. The dual criminality test also applies meaning that the criminal offence for which an individual is ought must be an offence in both the requesting State and the UK”

What is clear from this letter and in particular the above paragraph, is:

1. there is no policy not to extradite.

2. since all Ukrainian refugees would not be subject to the death penalty, extradition to a country the UK is aiding in war would not breach their human rights and draft dodging is a common misdemeanour to both the UK and Ukraine therefore they would be extradited.

We know that Kiev is sending to the front lines new recruits with only a few weeks training and we know from Ukrainian commanders that this is not sufficient. But the almost hysterical Ukraine supporting British government is prepared to extradite Ukrainians whom it has granted refugee status to fight on the murderous font lines in Eastern Ukraine.

USA Begins to Recognise a Futile War

The Council on Foreign Relations is the most influential organization in the US when it comes to US foreign policy and its president until June 2023, Richard Haas, has pointed to the futility of Ukraine’s sacrifices in this war:

“Even if we give everything we need to give to Ukraine it still won’t lead to success… Therefore the U.S. needs to have some very direct conversations with Ukraine and talk about reducing their emphasis on liberating land, increasingly put their emphasis on holding onto what they’ve got… The idea that 1 or 2 or 3 more years of this is going to result in success, I simply don’t see it… Anytime in life there’s a big gap between what you’re trying to do and your ability to do it, you either need to increase your means or lower your goals: here the only realistic option is to lower our goals.”

Were it not for the USA’s perceived threats from Iran, Hezbollah, Yemen, Gaza and China the Biden administration would blindly ignore this advice but times are a changing and the weakness of Biden in an election year, the precarious state of Zelensky in Kiev, the massive Ukrainian losses and growing opposition to the war in Europe mean that Washington will soon be forcing Kiev to negotiate with Russia. Since Zelensky has legislated against any such negotiations he will have to be replaced. Russia will not agree to pause the war during any such negotiations.

I remind our readers of this post on the most credible of the peace proposals.

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