Old bear does not dance to Western tunes
-Should a “revolution” take place, the primary target of shock will be Russia itself. The worst nightmare would be the disintegration of the Russian Federation. This is the result the West most desires to see most.
-Personal trust is the reason that facilitated the strategic relations between China and Russia. However, the foundation of these ties is built upon a mutual dream of national revival which outstripped the interests that connected the West and Russia. China wants a stable Russia. The West is on the opposite side.
Will a “Russian Spring” occur? Russian police have arrested hundreds of protestors recently. But the pro-liberal protestors claimed that they will not succumb to such moves and continue to hold protests every day. This scenario is similar to the initial phrase of the Arab Spring, where the revolutionary movement was triggered by small- scale protests. It is hard to predict the outcome of the current protest on Russia’s election scandal, but everything is possible.
Vladimir Putin’s rule will face increasing scrutiny and it will become much harder for him to withstand the challenges. However, this is not a victory for the West. Putin losing authority will not automatically gain the West influence in Russia.
The future of Russia will be shaped according to its own interests. This is the principle set by its democratic environment. Putin’s own authority came because he put the country back to track. He saved Russia from the confusion and chaos when the USSR disintegrated two decades ago.
The relation between election and a candidate’s authority is complicated. However the latest State Duma elections did not suggest that Russia’s understanding of its national interests has become obscure, as during the Yeltsin era.
Ballots lost by the United Russia are now in the pocket of the Communists and the Liberal Democrats, which does not reflect the expanding of the West’s ideology.
Russian interests are dominated by a combination of geopolitics, culture and ambition. The differences and even the hostility between the West and Russia will persist if these interests contradict each other, no matter who sits in the Kremlin.
Should a “revolution” take place, the primary target of shock will be Russia itself. The worst nightmare would be the disintegration of the Russian Federation. This is the result the West most desires to see most.
Russian society does not want to undergo this nightmare again. This concern has partly resulted from Putin’s lasting authority. The unity United Russia can bring to this country is limited, but unity under democracy is not that convincing either. The painful lessons of the past will make Russians more reluctant to give up their trust in strongman politics to its democratic peers.
Personal trust is the reason that facilitated the strategic relations between China and Russia. However, the foundation of these ties is built upon a mutual dream of national revival which outstripped the interests that connected the West and Russia. China wants a stable Russia. The West is on the opposite side.
Russia has undergone many tough challenges. The “revolutions” in the Middle-East is a cakewalk compared to the movements the former communist state experienced. The country has made several twists and turns in choosing its own path.
Russia is not similar to the countries swept by the Arab Spring. It is a unique state and will remain so.
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