Just as LEAP/E2020 has been anticipating since November 2010 (GEAB N°49), the Socialist candidate (1), in this case François Hollande, will win the 2012 French presidential election (2). There is still the question relating to the first round of this election: will Nicolas Sarkozy, the outgoing president, come out ahead or behind Marine Le Pen (it was also part of our November 2010 anticipation) (3)? Therefore, it’s time to anticipate the consequences of this election for France, Euroland and the EU as well as at world level (NATO, G20, Euro-BRICS) because de facto it’s much more important for the current world’s progress, in full transition because of the world crisis, than the next American election which will see Barack Obama and Mitt Romney clash head-to-head (two candidates financed massively by Wall Street) against a backdrop of the US political system’s general paralysis (4).
In this issue, in addition to the important national, European and international consequences this major republican earthquake which will strike France, our team is introducing a detailed anticipation on the upcoming fall of the Canadian residential property market. In addition, we reveal a very useful methodological instrument for political anticipation to decipher the attempts at taking control of the public opinion. And this month our recommendations relate to the progress of the Australian and New Zealand Dollars, the expansion of the major tax attack against financial centres, developments in the world stock markets and the next far-reaching development of Euroland’s reactions in the face of speculative attacks.
In this communiqué, we have chosen to present an extract dealing with the world geopolitical consequences of the change of power in France.
A 2012 French election much more important geopolitically than the 2012 US election
Indeed, for our team, François Hollande’s victory will start a series of strategic upheavals which will greatly affect Europe and will significantly accelerate the geopolitical changes in progress on a world level since the beginning of the global crisis in 2008. Therein, the results and consequences of the French presidential election (5) have much more importance than those of the next American presidential election in November 2012. In fact, France, although being a much less powerful country than the United States, occupies a strategic position both in Europe and on a world level (in particular via its intra-European role) which will make it a key-player in the emergence of the “world after the crisis” to paraphrase the title of Franck Biancheri’s book. And François Hollande’s election, who has clear ideas on Europe and France’s role in Europe and has clearly stated his intention to actively explore partnership possibilities with the new emerging powers (BRICS), will establish a major break with the absence of vision and European strategy of Nicolas Sarkozy’s five years’ presidency, mainly marked by an unprecedented allegiance in the country’s recent history to the dominant US power (6) and its unconditional integration in a Washington/Tel Aviv axis on the major geopolitical problems’ fundamentals (7). France had disappeared in the world these last five years (8); it’s on the point of making a sensational return (9), even beyond the future president’s personality (10).
The impact of François Hollande’s election on global geopolitical transition (2012-2015)
In global terms, LEAP/E2020 makes a point of underlining two outstanding trends which will characterize the first two years of the new French government:
. France’s assertion of a European-Gaullist policy (or Mitterand- Gaullist), i.e., making independent European foreign policy a strategic priority.
. the exploration of conceivable relationships with the BRICS at top speed, in particular in a context of a future Euro-BRICS partnership.
François Hollande has remained very discreet as regards foreign policy because, first, it’s not at the centre of French concerns in this election; and because, second, one doesn’t announce material changes in this field in advance.
There are a plethora of arguments for such changes and their implementation isn’t likely to create difficulties in public opinion which, generally, felt betrayed by the Americanist allegiance of the Sarkozy period, in effect there is no reason to hurry. As he announced on the question of France’s reintegration in NATO’s joint military organization (11), it will be based on an objective evaluation of the advantages and disadvantages of this decision.
The result is known in advance since the outgoing president didn’t negotiate anything (and thus got nothing) in exchange for France’s return. There will thus be a two-speed action: a counterparty requirement in terms of key military positions for France within NATO and the installation, by 2015 at the latest, of a pillar of European defence outside, but connected to, NATO. France will be able to count on the support of the majority of the continental European countries, definitively convinced by the Libyan and Afghan adventures of the need for radical changes within the Atlantic Alliance. With the help of an increased budget on the part of Europeans for assuming responsibility for the costs of their own defence; the United States, facing drastic reductions in their military budget, will accept it like it or not. And only the United Kingdom will be opposed to this development before joining in, since it doesn’t have the financial, military and diplomatic resources for its policies any more.
Net oil imports (EU, USA, China, Japan) (in orange : 2000-2010 average in USD billions / in red : 2012 projection in USD billions / in blue : % of GDP) – Source : IEA / FT, 03/2012
In global terms, following Germany which is already well committed to the process of diplomatic co-operation with the BRICS, France will adopt a more strategic approach, with a European (Eurolander) common reasoning, which will aim at drawing up common points for Euro-BRICS action (12) at international organization level (IMF reforms (13), UN Security Council …) and especially a fundamental reform of the international monetary system (the issue of replacing the US Dollar as the system’s pillar). The G20 Moscow summit in the first half of 2013 will mark the first achievement of this development.
While stimulating only these two changes (and one can suppose that there will be more of them), the new French government, with an exemplary European approach, will have thus decisively contributed to the development of world post-crisis governance.
Notes:
(1) LEAP/E2020’s November 2010 anticipation was generated in the light of the strong trends (massive grassroots rejection of Nicolas Sarkozy personally, the UMP electorate’s discouragement and a strong thrust by the National Front), all independent the socialist candidate as an individual, unknown at the time.
(2) With second round polls which have never placed Nicolas Sarkozy in front and an established lead month after month (around 8%/10%), even widening (a 13% gap in a recent CSA poll) in favour of François Hollande, only a tragic accident could now prevent the socialist candidate’s victory on the evening of the 6th May.
(3) We continue to think that the pollsters are strongly underestimating the National Front candidate’s share and, on the contrary, are overestimating that of the outgoing president. The feeling, now widespread and reinforced by all the polls without exception, that the UMP candidate cannot win the second round considerably weakens the strategy of the “helpful vote” for Sarkozy from the first round vis-a-vis the “wasted vote” for Le Pen. In fact, we consider that the last days ahead of the first round will even see this strategy overturned to the detriment of the Sarkozy vote which de facto has became a useless vote, in the absence of it being unable to win the second round.
(4) See our anticipation on the US future on this subject (GEAB N°60 ) of which four extracts have just made available to the public.
(5) And of the legislative election which will follow next June
(6) As we have already emphasized in the past, the only period which can match the comparison of the abandonment of sovereignty as regards international politics is that of the Vichy regime and its unconditional allegiance to the Nazi regime.
(7) And even on the training of the future French elite on the « World University Inc » model, a model without a future however. Source : NewropMag, 12/04/2012
(8) Even one of the middlemen in the Karachi affair, Zaid Takieddine, asserts the priority given to wheeling and dealing which governed the country’s strategic decisions for the last five years. As regards wheeling and dealing, it’s an expert speaking. Source : Le Point, 26/03/2012
(9) That said, those who, at the instigation of the City and Wall Street, want “to read” Euroland’s future into the Greek crisis, are welcome. LEAP/E2020 estimates that from now on it’s rather from the change in French policy that the rest of Euroland’s history will be written and beyond the post-crisis geopolitical transition.
(10) Because after France’s twelve years of quasi-absence on European issues for which Jacques Chirac had no affinity and even less strategic vision, these last five years marked France’s de facto disappearance from the international and European scene, except as a minion of the United States and publicity tool for Nicolas Sarkozy’s bragging never followed up (suppression of tax havens, taxes on financial transactions, etc…). The country, its players, operators, citizens, found themselves cut off from any capacity to project on a European and international scale. This situation will come to an end in less than a month and generate a strong bubbling up of many initiatives, like a “pressure-cooker” under pressure for years! That also explains why this election doesn’t reflect a classic right-left divide but really a republican divide with a strong sense of “res publica”.
(11) Decided by Nicolas Sarkozy without any declaration prior to his election and without any democratic debate.
(12) For example, Russia has just replaced the United States on the spot, which had abandoned the ExoMars project, controlled by Europeans, due to lack of funds. Source : RiaNovosti, 14/04/2012
(13) A burning topic, where the BRICS are waiting for the Europeans. Source : CNBC, 14/04/2012
