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This is a doomed-to-fail provocation carried out purely for propaganda with the intent of lessening the crushing blow to morale from losing Artyomovsk.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed on Monday that
“The Defense Ministry, the FSB and the Border Service have reported to the Russian president – the supreme commander-in-chief – about a Ukrainian sabotage group’s attempt to break into the Belgorod Region.” He added that “We understand perfectly well that the goal of such subversive activities is to divert attention from the Bakhmut area and reduce the political impact of Ukraine’s loss of Artyomovsk.”
Reports suggest that the so-called “Freedom of Russian Legion” and “Russian Volunteer Corps”, both of which are regarded by Russia as Ukrainian military intelligence’s terrorist proxies, are behind this attack. It was predictable that something of the sort would soon be attempted in order to deflect from Russia’s victory over the weekend in the longest battle of its special operation thus far. The following four analyses touched upon precisely this scenario:
- 5 March: “Analyzing The NATO-Backed Neo-Nazi Terrorist Attack In Russia’s Bryansk Region”
- 13 May: “Ten Critical Observations At The Onset Of Kiev’s NATO-Backed Counteroffensive”
- 15 May: “Is The Anglo-American Axis Preparing Ukraine To Invade Russia’s Pre-2014 Territory?”
- 21 May: “What Comes Next After Russia’s Victory In The Battle Of Artyomovsk?”
The last piece in particular predicted that this could soon be attempted because “Zelensky urgently needs to repair his side’s morale and show his Western patrons’ people that their $165 billion worth of taxpayer-provided military aid was used for something”, which aligns with Peskov’s assessment.
Keeping in mind the Kremlin’s official conclusion that the US was involved in this month’s failed assassination attempt against President Putin, it therefore naturally follows that it had a hand in this attack too.
It’s highly unlikely that Monday’s proxy invasion of Russia will lead to any lasting gains, hence why it should be seen as nothing more than infowar copium, or a doomed-to-fail provocation carried out purely for propaganda with the intent of lessening the crushing blow to morale from losing Artyomovsk. In fact, it might even backfire if the Kremlin finally regards this latest crossing of its “red lines” as worthy of an overwhelming response, which patriots have been pleading for ever since the Crimean Bridge bombing.
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This article was originally published on Andrew Korybko’s Newsletter.
