Syrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has renewed calls to the UN Security Council for an immediate end of the violations of The Syrian sovereignty by the Turkish Armed Forces.The Ministry also published a list of all violations that occurred since last December.  

The letter, which was addressed to the UN Secretary General and the President of the UN Security Council, mentions illegal incursions into Syrian territory, building a wall within the so-called Turkish buffer zones (which exist on the sovereign Syrian territory), destruction of the property belonging to the Syrian citizens such as uprooting of hundreds of olive trees in order to build roads for the tanks of the Turkish army (as recently seen in the village of Qljabreen in the Azaz area of Aleppo province) and illegal backing of the terrorist groups which are loyal to the regime in Ankara.

 

The letter further states that the Turkish authorities recently established a military base inside Syrian territory, more precisely in the village of Jtrar, North of the town of Tal Rifaat, located in the province of Aleppo.

The base includes the headquarters for the Turkish army personnel and their allies who are stationed on the Syrian soil and are allegedly involved in the so-called “Operation Euphrates Shield”. Ammunition depots are also being mentioned.The letter reads:

“The Syrian Government renews calls to the UN Security Council to hold to its responsibilities and act in accordance with the International Law and to pressure Turkey in order to stop the violations of the Syrian Arab Republic’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. ”

– Al Binaa – translated by Samer Hussein –
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Democrats, liberals and media pundits – in their rush to take down President Trump – are pushing a New McCarthyism aimed at Americans who have talked to Russians, risking a new witch hunt, reports Robert Parry.

In the anti-Russian frenzy sweeping American politics and media, Democrats, liberals and mainstream pundits are calling for an investigative body that could become a new kind of House Un-American Activities Committee to hunt down Americans who have communicated with Russians.

Red Square in Moscow with a winter festival to the left and the Kremlin to the right. (Photo by Robert Parry)

The proposed commission would have broad subpoena powers to investigate alleged connections between Trump’s supporters and the Russian government with the apparent goal of asking if they now have or have ever talked to a Russian who might have some tie to the Kremlin or its intelligence agencies.

Such an admission apparently would be prima facie evidence of disloyalty, a guilt-by-association “crime” on par with Sen. Joe McCarthy’s Cold War pursuit of “communists” who supposedly had infiltrated the U.S. government, the film industry and other American institutions.

Operating parallel to McCarthy’s Red Scare hearings was the House Un-American Activities Committee (or HUAC), a standing congressional panel from 1945-1975 when it was best known for investigating alleged communist subversion and propaganda. One of its top achievements was the blacklisting of the “Hollywood Ten” whose careers in the movie industry were damaged or destroyed.

Although the Cold War has long been over – and Russia has often cooperated with the U.S. government, especially on national security issues such as supplying U.S. troops in Afghanistan – Democrats and liberals seem ready to force Americans to again prove their loyalty if they engaged in conversations with Russians.

Or perhaps these “witnesses” can be entrapped into perjury charges if their recollections of conversations with Russians don’t match up with transcripts of their intercepted communications, a tactic similar to ones used by Sen. McCarthy and HUAC to trip up and imprison targets over such secondary charges.

Ousted National Security Advisor Michael Flynn has already encountered such a predicament because he couldn’t recall all the details of a phone conversation with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak on Dec. 29, 2016, after Flynn took the call while vacationing in the Dominican Republic.

When Obama administration holdovers at the Justice Department decided to gin up a legal premise to go after Flynn, they cited the Logan Act, a law enacted in 1799 to prohibit private citizens from negotiating with foreign adversaries but never used to convict anyone. The law also is of dubious constitutionality and was surely never intended to apply to a president-elect’s advisers.

However, based on that flimsy pretext, FBI agents – with a transcript of the electronic intercept of the Kislyak-Flynn phone call in hand – tested Flynn’s memory of the conversation and found his recollections incomplete. Gotcha – lying to the FBI!

Under mounting media and political pressure, President Trump fired Flynn, apparently hoping that tossing Flynn overboard to the circling sharks would somehow calm the sharks down. Instead, blood in the water added to the frenzy.

Iran-Contra Comparison

Some prominent Democrats and liberals have compared Trump-connected contacts with Russians to President Richard Nixon’s Watergate scandal or President Reagan’s Iran-Contra Affair, an issue that I know a great deal about having helped expose it as a reporter for The Associated Press in the 1980s.

President Ronald Reagan, delivering his Inaugural Address on Jan. 20, 1981.

The key difference is that Iran-Contra was an unconstitutional effort by the Reagan administration to finance an illegal war against Nicaragua’s Sandinista government in defiance of a congressional ban. The Trump-connected communications with Russians – to the degree they have occurred – appear to have been aimed at preventing a new and dangerous Cold War that could lead to a nuclear holocaust.

In other words, Iran-Contra was about enabling a paramilitary force to continue its brutal marauding inside a country that was no threat to the United States while the current “scandal” is about people trying to avoid hostilities between two nuclear superpowers, an existential threat that many mainstream and liberal pundits don’t want to recognize.

Indeed, there is a troubling denial-ism about the risks of an accidental or intentional war with Russia as the U.S. media and much of Official Washington’s establishment have lots of fun demonizing Russian President Vladimir Putin and jabbing the Russians by shoving NATO troops up to their borders and deploying anti-ballistic missiles in Eastern Europe. For some crazy reason, the Russians feel threatened.

False Narratives

This Russia-bashing and Russia-baiting have been accompanied by false narratives presented in the major U.S. newspapers, including The New York Times and The Washington Post, to justify increased tensions.

The Washington Post building in downtown Washington, D.C. (Photo credit: Washington Post)

For instance, the Post’s senior foreign affairs writer Karen DeYoung on Friday described the civil war in Ukraine this way: “That conflict began when Russia invaded and annexed Crimea in 2014, then backed separatists in eastern Ukraine in what has become a grinding war, despite a deal to end it, called the Minsk agreement, negotiated with Putin by the leaders of France and Germany.”

But DeYoung’s synopsis is simply not true. The crisis began in the fall of 2013 when Ukraine’s elected President Viktor Yanukovych backed out of what he regarded as a costly and unacceptable association agreement with the European Union, a move which prompted protests by Ukrainians in Kiev’s Maidan square.

The Obama administration’s State Department, U.S. neocon politicians such as Sen. John McCain, and various U.S.-backed “non-governmental organizations” then stoked those protests against Yanukovych, which grew violent as trained ultra-nationalist and neo-Nazi street fighters poured in from western Ukraine.

In early 2014, a coup to overthrow the democratically elected Yanukovych took shape under the guidance of U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt who were caught in a phone call in late January or early February 2014 conspiring to impose new leadership inside Ukraine.

Nuland disparaged a less extreme strategy favored by European diplomats with the pithy remark: “Fuck the E.U.” and went on to declare “Yats is the guy,” favoring Arseniy Yatsenyuk as the new leader. Nuland then pondered how to “glue this thing” while Pyatt ruminated about how to “midwife this thing.”

On Feb. 20, 2014, a mysterious sniper apparently firing from a building controlled by the ultranationalist Right Sektor killed both police and protesters, setting off a day of violence that left about 70 people dead including more than a dozen police.

The next day, three European governments struck a deal with Yanukovych in which he agreed to early elections and accepted reduced powers. But that political settlement wasn’t enough for the U.S.-backed militants who stormed government buildings on Feb. 22, forcing Yanukovych and his officials to flee for their lives.

Instead of standing by the Feb. 21 agreement, which the European nations had “guaranteed,” Nuland pushed for and got U.S. allies to accept the new post-coup regime as “legitimate,” with Yatsenyuk becoming prime minister and several top government posts given to the ultranationalists and neo-Nazis.

Spreading Violence

In the ensuing days, the right-wing violence spread beyond Kiev, prompting Crimea’s legislature to propose secession from Ukraine and readmission to Russia, whose relationship to the peninsula dated back to Catherine the Great.

Nazi symbols on helmets worn by members of Ukraine’s Azov battalion.
(As filmed by a Norwegian film crew and shown on German TV)

Crimea scheduled a referendum that was opposed by the new regime in Kiev. Russian troops did not “invade” Crimea because some 20,000 were already stationed there as part of a basing agreement at the Black Sea port of Sevastopol. The Russians did provide security for the referendum but there was no evidence of intimidation as the citizens of Crimea voted by 96 percent to leave Ukraine and rejoin Russia, a move that Putin and the Russian duma accepted.

Eastern Ukrainians tried to follow Crimea’s lead with their own referendum, but Putin and Russia rejected their appeals to secede. However, when the Kiev regime launched an “Anti-Terrorism Operation” against the so-called Donbass region – spearheaded by ultra-nationalist and neo-Nazi militias – Russia provided military assistance so these ethnic Russians would not be annihilated.

Karen DeYoung also framed the Minsk agreement as if it were imposed on Putin when he was one of its principal proponents and architects, winning its approval in early 2015 at a time when the Ukrainian military was facing battlefield reversals.

Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland during a press conference at the U.S. Embassy in Kiev, Ukraine, on Feb. 7, 2014. (U.S. State Department photo)

But Assistant Secretary Nuland, working with Prime Minister Yatsenyuk and the Ukrainian parliament, sabotaged the agreement by requiring the Donbass rebels to first surrender which they were unwilling to do, having no faith in the sincerity of the Kiev regime to live up to its commitment to grant limited autonomy to the Donbass.

In other words, Kiev inserted a poison pill to prevent a peaceful resolution, but the Western media and governments always blame the Minsk failure on Putin.

If Karen DeYoung wanted to boil all this history down to one paragraph, it might go: “The Ukraine conflict began when U.S. officials supported the violent overthrow of elected President Viktor Yanukovych, prompting Crimea to rejoin Russia and causing ethnic Russians in the east to rise up against the U.S.-backed coup regime in Kiev, which then sought to crush the rebellion. The Kiev regime later torpedoed a peace deal that had been hammered out by Russian, Ukrainian and European negotiators in Minsk.”

But such a summary would not have the desired propaganda effect on the American people. It would not present the U.S.-backed side as the “white hats” and the pro-Russia side as the “black hats.”

The simple truth is that the story of Ukraine is far more complex and multi-sided than The Washington Post, The New York Times and most mainstream U.S. news outlets want to admit. They simply start the clock at the point of Crimea’s rejection of the post-coup regime and distort those facts to present the situation simply as a “Russian invasion.”

A Whipped-Up Hysteria

The major media’s distortion is so egregious that you could call it a lie, but it is a lie that has proved very useful in whipping up the current anti-Russian hysteria that is sweeping Official Washington and that has given birth to a New Cold War, now accompanied by a New McCarthyism that deems anyone who doesn’t accept the “groupthink” a “Russian apologist” or a “Moscow stooge.”

Wintery scene at Red Square in Moscow, Dec. 6, 2016. (Photo by Robert Parry)

Since last November’s election, this New McCarthyism has merged with hatred toward Donald Trump, especially after the outgoing Obama administration lodged unproven accusations that Russia undercut Hillary Clinton’s campaign by hacking into the emails of the Democratic National Committee and those of her campaign chairman John Podesta – and slipped that information to WikiLeaks.

Those emails showed how the DNC undercut the rival campaign of Sen. Bernie Sanders and revealed the contents of Clinton’s speeches to Wall Street banks as well as pay-to-play aspects of the Clinton Foundation, information that Clinton wanted to keep from the voters.

But no one thought the emails were a major factor in the Clinton-Trump race; indeed, Clinton blamed her stunning defeat on FBI Director James Comey’s last-minute decision to reopen and then re-close his investigation into security concerns about her use of a private email server as Secretary of State.

But the script on how Clinton lost was flipped during the Trump transition as President Obama’s intelligence agencies floated the Russia-hacked-the-election scenario although presenting no public evidence to support the claims. WikiLeaks representatives also denied getting the material from Russia, suggesting instead that it was leaked by two different American insiders.

A Ministry of Truth

Still, during the post-election period, the anti-Russian hysteria continued to build. In November, The Washington Post highlighted claims by an anonymous group called PropOrNot accusing some 200 Web sites, including Consortiumnews.com and other major independent media outlets, of disseminating Russian “propaganda.”

 New York Times building in New York City. (Photo from Wikipedia)

The New York Times joined in the frenzy by calling for leading technology companies to marginalize Web sites that are deemed to be publishing “fake news,” a vague term that was applied not just to intentionally false stories but to information that questioned official narratives, no matter how dubious those narratives were. The New McCarthyism was morphing into a New Orwellianism.

The movement toward a Ministry of Truth gained further momentum in December when Congress passed and President Obama signed a military authorization bill that included a new $160 million bureaucracy to identify and counter alleged “Russian propaganda.”

The anger of Democrats and liberals toward President Trump in his first month has added more fuel to the Russia-bashing with some Democrats and liberals seeing it as a possible route toward neutralizing or impeaching Trump. Thus, the calls for a full-scale investigation with subpoena power to demand documents and compel testimony.

While the idea of getting to the full truth has a superficial appeal, it also carries dangers of launching a witch hunt that would drag American citizens before inquisitors asking about any contacts – no matter how innocuous – with Russians.

In the late 1940s and early 1950s, HUAC also claimed that all it wanted was the truth about whether some Americans were allied with or sympathetic to Moscow. Sen. Joe McCarthy offered a similar rationale when he was trying to root out “disloyal” Americans with the question, “are you now or have you ever been a communist?”

That Democrats and liberals who hold the McCarthy era in understandable disdain would now seek to rekindle something similar reeks of rank opportunism and gross hypocrisy – doing whatever it takes to “get Trump” and build an activist movement that can revive the Democratic Party’s flagging political hopes.

But this particular opportunism and hypocrisy also carries with it the prospect of blindly ramping up tensions with Russia, diverting more taxpayer money into the Military-Industrial Complex and conceivably sparking – whether planned or unplanned – a nuclear Armageddon that could eliminate life on the planet. Perhaps this anti-Trump strategy should be rethought.

Investigative reporter Robert Parry broke many of the Iran-Contra stories for The Associated Press and Newsweek in the 1980s. You can buy his latest book, America’s Stolen Narrative, either in print here or as an e-book (from Amazon and barnesandnoble.com).

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America uses banned depleted uranium (DU) weapons in all its wars, ongoing since first developed during the Vietnam era.

The 1925 Geneva Protocol and succeeding Geneva Weapons Conventions prohibited use of chemical and biological agents in any form as weapons of war.

Although no Geneva Convention or other treaty specifically bans radioactive uranium weapons, including DU ones, they’re illegal de facto and de jure under the 1907 Hague Convention, prohibiting use of any “poison or poisoned weapons.”

DU munitions are radioactive, chemically toxic and poisonous. America is a signatory to the Hague and Geneva Conventions. Using these weapons in combat is a war crime.

US Code, Title 50, Chapter 40, Section 2302 defines a WMD as “any weapon or device that is intended, or has the capability, to cause death or serious bodily injury to a significant number of people through the release, dissemination, or impact of (A) toxic or poisonous chemicals or their precursors, (B) a disease organism, or (C) radiation or radioactivity.”

Armor-piercing DU munitions enable their ability to penetrate targets, enhancing their destructive capability. On detonation, depleted uranium aerializes, contaminating land, air and water, acting as a miniature dirty bomb.

It caused an epidemic of cancer, numerous other diseases and serious birth defects in Iraq – including children born with two heads, one eye, and legs grown together.

Miscarriages are frequent. Hundreds of newborns had cleft pallets, elongated heads, overgrown or short limbs, and other malformed body parts.

Iraq remains a toxic wasteland. So do other US war theaters. The Pentagon admitted using thousands of DU rounds in Syria in 2015, falsely claiming attacks were against ISIS, imperial foot soldiers America created and supports.

Pentagon warplanes began terror-bombing Syria in September 2014, conducting thousands of airstrikes, continuing under Trump against infrastructure and government targets.

It’s unknown if DU weapons were used throughout this period, as well as against Iraq since US terror-bombing began in June 2014 – on the phony pretext of combating ISIS.

Whatever the Pentagon admitted to is likely a small fraction of what it’s done. Its high crimes are notoriously whitewashed.

In March 2015, US-led coalition spokesman John Moore lied, saying its warplanes “have not been and will not be using depleted uranium munitions in Iraq or Syria…”

Now we know part of the truth. Most of it remains hidden.

Stephen Lendman lives in Chicago. He can be reached at [email protected]

His new book as editor and contributor is titled “Flashpoint in Ukraine: How the US Drive for Hegemony Risks WW III.”

http://www.claritypress.com/LendmanIII.html

Visit his blog site at sjlendman.blogspot.com

Listen to cutting-edge discussions with distinguished guests on the Progressive Radio News Hour on the Progressive Radio Network.

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Trump’s Economic Policies Are No Answer to Our Problems

February 20th, 2017 by Marty Hart-Landsberg

President Trump has singled out unfair international trading relationships as a major cause of US worker hardship.  And he has promised to take decisive action to change those relationships by pressuring foreign governments to rework their trade agreements with the US and change their economic policies.

While international economic dynamics have indeed worked to the disadvantage of many US workers, Trump’s framing of the problem is highly misleading and his promised responses are unlikely to do much, if anything, to improve majority working and living conditions.

President Trump and his main advisers have aimed their strongest words at Mexico and China, pointing out that the US runs large trade deficits with each, leading to job losses in the US.  For example, Bloomberg News reports that Peter Navarro, the head of President Trump’s newly formed White House National Trade Council “has blamed Nafta and China’s 2001 entry into the World Trade Organization for much, if not all, of a 15-year economic slowdown in the U.S.” In other words, poor negotiating skills on the part of past US administrations has allowed Mexico and China, and their workers, to gain at the expense of the US economy and its workers.

However, this nation-state framing of the origins of contemporary US economic problems is seriously flawed. It also serves to direct attention away from the root cause of those problems: the profit-maximizing strategies of large, especially US, multinational corporations.  It is the power of these corporations that must be confronted if current trends are to be reversed.

Capitalist Globalization Dynamics

Beginning in the late 1980s large multinational corporations, including those headquartered in the US, began a concerted effort to reverse declining profits by establishing cross border production networks (or global value chains).  This process knitted together highly segmented economic processes across national borders in ways that allowed these corporations to lower their labor costs as well as reduce their tax and regulatory obligations.   Their globalization strategy succeeded; corporate profits soared.  It is also no longer helpful to think about international trade in simple nation-state terms.

As the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development explains:

Global trade and foreign direct investment have grown exponentially over the last decade as firms expanded international production networks, trading inputs and outputs between affiliates and partners in GVCs [Global Value Chains].

About 60 per cent of global trade, which today amounts to more than $20 trillion, consists of trade in intermediate goods and services that are incorporated at various stages in the production process of goods and services for final consumption. The fragmentation of production processes and the international dispersion of tasks and activities within them have led to the emergence of borderless production systems – which may be sequential chains or complex networks and which may be global, regional or span only two countries.

UNCTAD estimates (see the figure below) that some 80 percent of world trade “is linked to the international production networks of TNCs [transnational corporations], either as intra-firm trade, through NEMs [non-equity mechanisms of control] (which include, among others, contract manufacturing, licensing, and franchising), or through arm’s-length transactions involving at least one TNC.”

tnc-involvement

In other words, multinational corporations have connected and reshaped national economies along lines that best maximize their profit.  And that includes the US economy.  As we see in the figure below, taken from an article by Adam Hersh and Ethan Gurwitz, the share of all US merchandise imports that are intra-firm, meaning are sold by one unit of a multinational corporation to another unit of the same multinational, has slowly but steadily increased, reaching 50 percent in 2013.  The percentage is considerably higher for imports of manufactures, including in key sectors like electrical, machinery, transportation, and chemicals.

onea

The percentage is lower, but still significant for US exports.  As we see in the following figure, approximately one-third of all merchandise exports from the US are sold by one unit of a multinational corporation to another unit of the same company.

oneb

The percentage of intra-firm trade is far higher for services, as illustrated in the next figure.

services

As Hersh and Gurwitz comment,

The trend is clear: As offshoring practices increase, companies need to provide more wraparound services—the things needed to run a businesses besides direct production—to their offshore production and research and development activities. Rather than indicating the competitive strength of U.S. services businesses to expand abroad, the growth in services exports follows the pervasive offshoring of manufacturing and commercial research activities.

Thus, there is no simple way to change US trade patterns, and by extension domestic economic processes, without directly challenging the profit maximizing strategies of leading multinational corporations.  To demonstrate why this understanding is a direct challenge to President Trump’s claims that political pressure on major trading partners, especially Mexico and China, can succeed in boosting the fortunes of US workers, we look next at the forces shaping US trade relationships with these two countries.

The US-Mexican Trade Relationship

US corporations, taking advantage of NAFTA and the Mexican peso crisis that followed in 1994-95, poured billions of dollars into the country (see the figure below).  Their investment helped to dramatically expand a foreign-dominated export sector aimed at the US market that functions as part of a North American region-wide production system and operates independent of the stagnating domestic Mexican economy.

fdi-mexico

Some 80 percent of Mexico’s exports are sold to the US and the country runs a significant merchandise trade surplus with the US, as shown in the figure below.

trade-mexico

Leading Mexican exports to the US include motor vehicles, motor vehicle parts, computer equipment, audio and video equipment, communications equipment, and oil and gas.  However, with the exception of oil and gas, these are far from truly “Mexican” exports.  As a report from the US Congressional Research Service describes:

A significant portion of merchandise trade between the United States and Mexico occurs in the context of production sharing as manufacturers in each country work together to create goods. Trade expansion has resulted in the creation of vertical supply relationships, especially along the U.S.-Mexico border. The flow of intermediate inputs produced in the United States and exported to Mexico and the return flow of finished products greatly increased the importance of the U.S.- Mexico border region as a production site. U.S. manufacturing industries, including automotive, electronics, appliances, and machinery, all rely on the assistance of Mexican [based] manufacturers. One report estimates that 40% of the content of U.S. imports of goods from Mexico consists of U.S. value added content.

Because foreign multinationals, many of which are US owned, produce most of Mexico’s exports of “advanced” manufactures using imported components, the country’s post-Nafta export expansion has done little for the overall health of the Mexican economy or the well-being of Mexican workers. As Mark Weisbrot points out:

If we look at the most basic measure of economic progress, the growth of gross domestic product, or income per person, Mexico, which signed on to NAFTA in 1994, has performed the 15th-best out of 20 Latin American countries.

Other measures show an even sadder picture. The poverty rate in 2014 was 55.1 percent, an increase from the 52.4 percent measurement in 1994.

Wages tell a similar story: There’s been almost no growth in real inflation-adjusted wages since 1994 — just about 4.1 percent over 21 years.

Representative Sander Levin and Harley Shaiken make clear that the gains have been nonexistent even for workers in the Mexican auto industry, the country’s leading export center:

Consider the auto industry, the flagship manufacturing industry across North America. The Mexican auto industry exports 80 percent of its output of which 86 percent is destined for the U.S. and Canada. If high productivity translated into higher wages in Mexico, the result would be a virtuous cycle of more purchasing power, stronger economic growth, and more imports from the U.S.

In contrast, depressed pay has become the “comparative advantage”. Mexican autoworker compensation is 14 percent of their unionized U.S. counterparts and auto parts workers earn even less–$2.40 an hour. Automation is not the driving force; its depressed wages and working conditions.

In other words, US workers aren’t the only workers to suffer from the globalization strategies of multinational corporations.  Mexican workers are also suffering, and resisting.

In sum, it is hard to square this reality with Trump’s claim that because of the way NAFTA was negotiated Mexico “has made us look foolish.” The truth is that NAFTA, as designed, helped further a corporate driven globalization process that has greatly benefited US corporations, as well as Mexican political and business elites, at the expense of workers on both sides of the border.  Blaming Mexico serves only to distract US workers from the real story.

The US-Chinese Trade Relationship

The Chinese economy also went through a major transformation in the mid-1990s which paved the way for a massive inflow of export-oriented foreign investment targeting the United States.  The process and outcome was different from what happened in Mexico, largely because of the legacy of Mao era policies.  The Chinese Communist Party’s post-1978 state-directed reform program greatly benefited from an absence of foreign debt; the existence of a broad, largely self-sufficient state-owned industrial base; little or no foreign investment or trade; and a relatively well-educated and healthy working class.  This starting point allowed the Chinese state to retain considerable control over the country’s economic transformation even as it took steps to marketize economic activity in the 1980s and privatize state production in the 1990s.

However, faced with growing popular resistance to privatization and balance of payments problems, the Chinese state decided, in the mid-1990s, to embrace a growing role for export-oriented foreign investment.  This interest in attracting foreign capital dovetailed with the desire of multinational corporations to globalize their production.  Over the decade of the 1990s and 2000s, multinational corporations built and expanded cross border production networks throughout Asia, and once China joined the WTO, the country became the region’s primary final assembly and export center.

As a result of this development, foreign produced exports became one of the most important drivers, if not the most important, of Chinese growth.  For example, according to Yılmaz Akyüz, former Director of UNCTAD’s Division on Globalization and Development Strategies:

despite a high import content ranging between 40 and 50 percent, approximately one-third of Chinese growth before the global crisis [of 2008] was a result of exports, due to their phenomenal growth of some 25 percent per annum. This figure increases to 50 percent if spillovers to consumption and investment are allowed for. The main reason for excessive dependence on foreign markets is under consumption. This is due not so much to a high share of household savings in GDP as to a low share of household income and a high share of profits

The figure below illustrates the phenomenal growth in Chinese exports.

china-exports

The US soon became the primary target of China’s exports (see the trade figures below).   The US now imports more goods from China than from any other country, approximately $480 billion in 2015, followed by Canada and Mexico (roughly $300 billion each).  The US also runs its largest merchandise trade deficit with China, $367 billion in 2015, equal to 48 percent of the overall US merchandise trade deficit.  In second place was Germany, at only $75 billion.

china-trade-us

Adding to China’s high profile is the fact that it is the primary supplier of many high technology consumer goods, like cell phones and laptops. More specifically:

(F)or 825 products, out of a total of about 5,000, adding up to nearly $300 billion, China supplies more than all our other trade partners combined. Of these products, the most important is cell phones, where $40 billion in imports from China account for more than three-quarters of the total value imported.

There are also 83 products where 90 percent or more of US imports come from China; together these accounted for a total of $56 billion in 2015. The most important individual product in this category is laptop computers, which alone have an import value of $37 billion from China, making up 93 percent of the total imported.

Of course, China is also a major supplier of many low-technology, low-cost goods as well, including clothing, toys, and furniture.

Not surprisingly, exports from China have had a significant effect on US labor market conditions. Economists David Autor, David Dorn and Gordon Hanson “conservatively estimate that Chinese import competition explains 16 percent of the U.S. manufacturing employment decline between 1990 and 2000, 26 percent of the decline between 2000 and 2007, and 21 percent of the decline over the full period.”  They also find that Chinese import competition “significantly reduces earnings in sectors outside manufacturing.”

President Trump has accused China of engaging in an undeclared trade war against the United States.   However, while Trump’s charges conjure up visions of a massive state-run export machine out to crush the United States economy for the benefit of Chinese workers, the reality is quite different.

First, although the Chinese state retains important levers of control over economic activity, especially the state-owned banking system, the great majority of industrial production and export activity is carried out by private firms.  In 2012, state-owned enterprises accounted for only 24 percent of Chinese industrial output and 18 percent of urban employment.  As for exports, by 2013 the share of state-owned enterprises was down to 11 percent.  Foreign-owned multinationals were responsible for 47 percent of all Chinese exports.  And, most importantly in terms of their effect on the US economy, multinational corporations produce approximately 82 percent of China’s high-technology exports.

Second, although these high-tech exports come from China, for the most part they are not really “Chinese” exports.  As noted above, China now functions as the primary assembly point for the region’s cross border production networks.  Thus, the majority of the parts and components used in Chinese-based production of high-technology goods come from firms operating in other Asian countries.  In many cases China’s only contribution is its low-paid labor.

A Washington Post article uses the Apple iPhone 4, a product that shows up in trade data as a Chinese export, to illustrate the country’s limited participation in the production of its high technology exports:

In a widely cited study, researchers found that Apple created most of the product’s value through its product design, software development and marketing operations, most of which happen in the United States. Apple ended up keeping about 58 percent of the iPhone 4’s sales price. The gross profits of Korean companies LG and Samsung, which provided the phone’s display and memory chips, captured another 5 percent of the sales price. Less than 2 percent of the sales price went to pay for Chinese labor.

“We estimate that only $10 or less in direct labor wages that go into an iPhone or iPad is paid to China workers. So while each unit sold in the U.S. adds from $229 to $275 to the U.S.-China trade deficit (the estimated factory costs of an iPhone or iPad), the portion retained in China’s economy is a tiny fraction of that amount,” the researchers wrote.

The same situation exists with laptop computers, which are assembled by Chinese workers under the direction of Taiwanese companies using imported components and then exported as Chinese exports.  Economists have estimated that the US-Chinese trade balance would be reduced by some 40 percent if the value of these imported components were subtracted from Chinese exports.  Thus, it is not Chinese state enterprises, or even Chinese private enterprises, that are driving China’s exports to the US.  Rather it is foreign multinationals, many of which are headquartered in the US, including Apple, Dell, and Walmart.

And much like in Mexico, Chinese workers enjoy few if any benefits from their work producing their country’s exports.  The figure below highlights the steady fall in labor compensation as a share of China’s GDP.

china-labor

Approximately 80 percent of Chinese manufacturing workers are internal migrants with a rural household registration.  This means they are not entitled to access the free or subsidized public health care, education, or other social services available in the urban areas where they now work; the same is true for their children even if they are born in urban areas.  Moreover, most migrants receive little protection from Chinese labor laws.

For example, as the China Labor Bulletin reports:

In 2015, seven years after the implementation of the Labor Contract Law, only 36 percent of migrant workers had signed a formal employment contract with their employer, as required by law. In fact the percentage of migrant workers with formal contracts actually declined last year by 1.8 percent from 38 percent. For short-distance migrants, the proportion was even lower, standing at just 32 percent, suggesting that the enforcement of labor laws is even less rigid in China’s inland provinces and smaller cities.

According to the [2014] migrant worker survey . . . the proportion of migrant workers with a pension or any form of social security remained at a very low level, around half the national average. In 2014, only 16.4 percent of long-distance migrants had a pension and 18.2 percent had medical insurance.

Despite worker struggles, which did succeed in pushing up wages over the last 7 years, most migrant workers continue to struggle to make ends meet.   Moreover, with Chinese growth rates now slipping, and the government eager to restart the export growth machine, many local governments have decided, with central government approval, to freeze minimum wages for the next two to four years.

In short, it is not China, or its workers, that threaten US jobs and well-being.  It is the logic of capitalist globalization.  Thus, Trump’s call-to-arms against China obfuscates the real cause of current US economic problems and encourages working people to pursue a strategy of nationalism that can only prove counterproductive.

The Political Challenge Facing US Workers

The globalization process highlighted above was strongly supported by all major governments, especially by successive US administrations.  In contrast to Trump claims of a weak US governmental effort in support of US economic interests, US administrations used their considerable global power to secure the creation of the WTO and approval of a host of other multilateral and bilateral trade agreements, all of which provided an important infrastructure for capital mobility, thereby supporting the globalizing efforts of leading US multinational corporations.

President Trump has posed as a critic of existing international arrangements, claiming that they have allowed other countries, such as Mexico and China, to prosper at US expense.  He has stated that he will pursue new bilateral agreements rather than multilateral ones because they will better serve US interests and he has demanded that US multinational corporations shift their investment and production back to the US.

Such statements have led some to believe that the Trump administration is serious about challenging globalization dynamics in order to rebuild the US economy in ways that will benefit working people.  But there are strong reasons to doubt this.  Most importantly, he seems content to threaten other governments rather than challenge the profit-maximizing logic of dominant US companies, which as we have seen is what needs to happen.

One indicator: an administration serious about challenging the dynamics of globalization would have halted US participation in all ongoing negotiations for new multilateral agreements, such as the Trade in Services Agreement which is designed to encourage the privatization and deregulation of services for the benefit of multinational corporations.  This has not happened.

Such an administration would also renounce support for existing and future bilateral agreements that contain chapters that strengthen the ability of multinational corporations to dominate key sectors of foreign economies and sue their governments in supranational secret courts.  This has not happened.

Another indicator: an administration serious about creating a healthy, sustainable, and equitable domestic economy would strengthen and expand key public services and programs; rework our tax system to make it more progressive; tighten and increase enforcement of health and safety and environmental regulations; strengthen labor laws that protect the rights of workers, including to unionize; and boost the national minimum wage.  The Trump administration appears determined to do the opposite.

Such an administration would also begin to develop the state capacities necessary to redirect existing production and investment activity along lines necessary to rebuild our cities and infrastructure, modernize our public transportation system, and reduce our greenhouse gas emissions.  The Trump administration appears committed to the exact opposite.

In short, if we take Trump’s statements seriously, that he actually wants to shift trading relationships, then it appears that his primary strategy is to make domestic conditions so profitable for big business, that some of the most globally organized corporations will shift some of their production back to the United States.  However, even if he succeeds, it is very unlikely that this will contribute to an improvement in majority living and working conditions.

The main reason is that US corporations, having battered organized labor with the assistance of successive administrations, have largely stopped creating jobs that provide the basis for economic security and well-being.  Economists Lawrence F. Katz and Alan B. Krueger examined the growth  from 2005 to 2015 in “alternative work arrangements,” which they defined as temporary help agency workers, on-call workers, contract workers, and independent contractors or freelancers.

They found that the percentage of workers employed in such arrangements rose from 10.1 percent of all employed workers in February 2005 to 15.8 percent in late 2015.  But their most startling finding is the following:

A striking implication of these estimates is that all of the net employment growth in the U.S. economy from 2005 to 2015 appears to have occurred in alternative work arrangements. Total employment according to the CPS increased by 9.1 million (6.5 percent) over the decade, from 140.4 million in February 2005 to 149.4 in November 2015. The increase in the share of workers in alternative work arrangements from 10.1 percent in 2005 to 15.8 percent in 2015 implies that the number of workers employed in alternative arrangement increased by 9.4 million (66.5 percent), from 14.2 million in February 2005 to 23.6 million in November 2015. Thus, these figures imply that employment in traditional jobs (standard employment arrangements) slightly declined by 0.4 million (0.3 percent) from 126.2 million in February 2005 to 125.8 million in November 2015.

A further increase in employment in such “alternative work arrangements,” which means jobs with no benefits or security, during a period of Trump administration-directed attacks on our social services, labor laws, and health and safety and environmental standards is no answer to our problems. Despite what President Trump says, our problems are not caused by other governments or workers in other countries.  Instead, they are the result of the logic of capitalism.

The Trump administration, really no US administration, is going to willingly challenge that. That is up to us.

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A Tale of Two Realities: Donald Trump and Israel

February 20th, 2017 by Dr. Binoy Kampmark

After what came out after the meeting between Netanyahu and Trump, I am not exaggerating if I say that yesterday there was a semi-official announcement of the death of the path of negotiations. Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Feb 16, 2017

It was supremely wicked, and rapidly meandered into horse muddied waters.  US President Donald J. Trump had openly expressed what many a US politician has felt but avoided for the sake of false decency: the two-state solution regarding Israel and Palestine was “a bad idea”.  There was only one supremo in this fight, and it certainly did not entail the downtrodden in Gaza or the West Bank.

In his consistently inconsistent manner before a press corps he has come to loathe, Trump also claimed that he could, “live with two-state or one-state”: “I’m looking at two-state and one-state and I like the one both parties like. I’m very happy with the one that both parties like.”

Another comment, of the same ilk, was equally gravity defying.  “I thought for a while it looked like the two-state, looked it may be the easier of the two, but honestly if Bibi and if the Palestinians, if Israel and the Palestinians are happy, I’m happy with the one they like the best.”

Not exactly high flying wisdom, given Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s general reluctance about giving ground on the issue, or mixed Palestinian stances on the subject. The general US approach to this has been to back Israel with few qualifications and insist that both sides yield in some undefined manner.

The tone has varied at stages, be it the Clinton guidelines set out at the Camp David summit or the meaningless “road map for peace” outlined at the Annapolis conference by George W. Bush.  The Obama administration kept the circus going, with a few neat additions, and failed.  The bitter icing on these fruitless efforts came from an indignant and frustrated Secretary of State, John Kerry.

Veteran Palestinian negotiator and member of the Palestine Liberation Organisation Hanan Ashrawi was understandably baffled by this change in the air, though the air on this subject had already thickened with Trump’s election.   “Accommodating the most extreme and irresponsible elements in Israel and in the White House is no way to make responsible foreign policy.”

A livid, ashen-looking Saeb Erekat saw even darker implications.  “Those who believe that they can undermine the two-state solution and replace it with what I call one state two systems – apartheid – I don’t think in the 21st century they will get away with it. It’s impossible.”  Fine sentiments indeed, though states continue “getting away” with atrocious conduct under the cover of law, provided they receive the relevant backing, or impotent complicity.

There was a moment when a bemused Netanyahu was faced with another observation from Trump: that Israel tread carefully on its illegal settlements, that great weapon that continues to render a two-state solution nugatory.

For Trump, the aggressive policy of continued building was perhaps not such a good idea, though there was nothing stopping the state of Israel from pushing on with it in cautious fashion.  “I would like to see you pull back on settlements a little bit.”  “The Art of the Deal!” exclaimed Netanyahu.

The Israeli Prime Minister has been pursuing his own variant of the deal, though there is very little artistic about it. In his Bar-Ilan University speech in 2009, Netanyahu accepted the two-state solution.  Before the 2015 election, he changed his mind, only to repudiate that stance after he won a fourth term.  His current approach is to render any discussion about the Jewish settlement problem irrelevant to the main discussions with the Palestinians.

Such a position is also allied to another, more invidious approach: that of assuming that the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza are simply incapable of unifying on the issue of how best to pursue a two-state solution.  The comment from Abba Eben has become something of a reflex: “The Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.”

Divided, the Palestinian house has effectively fallen on the sword of a perceived Realpolitik: that a true stance to negotiate over would assume that Israel also include the occupied territories, but within a secular arrangement of equal rights. (This has a certain sinister tone of being different yet equal, though it seems to have wings in some circles.)

Even Erekat noted that vision of “one single secular and democratic state with equal rights for everyone, Christians, Muslims and Jews, on all of historic Palestine.”  That would effectively ditch the notion of Israel as the supreme Jewish state, singular and exclusive, a stance that is nigh impossible to envisage.

It remains to be seen whether that fateful press conference buried the two-state idea with few funeral rites.  If so, such a process can hardy banish the militant misery and indignation that Palestinians will continue to nurse and express.  The implacable enemy within remains the most dangerous of all.

Dr. Binoy Kampmark was a Commonwealth Scholar at Selwyn College, Cambridge.  He lectures at RMIT University, Melbourne.  Email: [email protected]

 

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New York Times Editorial, February 18, 2017: Keeping the Kremlin’s Hands Off France’s Elections

With the United States engulfed in questions about Russia’s role in the 2016 presidential election, France is determined to head off any such meddling in its coming presidential election.

Wikileaks, February 16, 2017: CIA espionage orders for the 2012 French presidential election

All major French political parties were targeted for infiltration by the CIA’s human (“HUMINT”) and electronic (“SIGINT”) spies in the seven months leading up to France’s 2012 presidential election. The revelations are contained within three CIA tasking orders published today by WikiLeaks …


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NYT:

On Monday Richard Ferrand, the director of Emmanuel Macron’s campaign, claimed that the Russians had unleashed “hundreds and even thousands” of hacking attempts against Mr. Macron, and that RT and Sputnik, government-controlled news outlets, are spreading fake news, as they were said to have done during the American election cycle. The stories about Mr. Macron range from allegations that he is engaged in a secret extramarital gay affair to accusations that he used state funds to pay for foreign travel.Marine Le Pen, the far-right National Front candidate, who has received Russian financing, is expected to win the most votes in a crowded field in the first round of voting, on April 23.

Wikileaks:

The espionage order for “Non Ruling Political Parties and Candidates Strategic Election Plans” which targeted Francois Holland, Marine Le Pen and other opposition figures requires obtaining opposition parties’ strategies for the election; information on internal party dynamics and rising leaders; efforts to influence and implement political decisions; support from local government officials, government elites or business elites; views of the United States; efforts to reach out to other countries, including Germany, U.K., Libya, Israel, Palestine, Syria & Cote d’Ivoire; as well as information about party and candidate funding.

NYT:

France is wise to take steps now, though it is too early to know whether they will have much effect. Mr. Ayrault was absolutely right, however, when he stated on Wednesday what should be obvious to all democratic governments: “After what happened in the United States, it is our responsibility to take all measures to ensure that the integrity of our democratic process is respected.” At stake, he said, is “our democracy, our sovereignty and our national independence.”

(For the record: In 2014 the National Front party of Marine Le Pen took out a regular loan from the First Czech Russian Bank registered in Moscow. This after French banks had rejected all loan requests by the party. On July 1 2016 the FCRB’s license was revoked by the Russian Central Bank over other issues.)

I agree with the NYT that “Ayrault is absolutely right” to take steps now. Those steps will hopefully prevent further U.S. interference in French elections which the NYT editors so blatantly ignore.

It should also help to dismantle the stupid assertions that some slanted reporting by Russian news outlets, in contrast to completely faked “news” by the NYT, could somehow influence voter decisions in France or anywhere else.

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China ante los riesgos de la “Ruta de la Seda”

February 20th, 2017 by Ignacio Niño Pérez

Desde los primeros indicios de la intención de China de poner en marcha su proyecto de la Ruta de la Seda (conocido como OBOR-One Belt-One Road-“Silk Road Economic Belt” y  “XXI century maritime Silk Road”), son muchos los análisis que se han publicado sobre el alcance, motivaciones e implicaciones de ese proyecto.

No es extraño el interés que el mismo ha suscitado ya que, en su esencia, está la vocación china de dar respuesta a muchas de sus actuales preocupaciones domésticas y globales. Así, una idónea puesta en marcha de esta iniciativa lograría dar solución a muchas de sus inquietudes. En lo interior, lograría “exportar” su exceso de capacidad productiva, encontraría nuevos mercados y oportunidades para sus empresas de cara a dinamizar su economía y, desde el punto de vista del desarrollo regional, supondría un fuerte impulso a las regiones del centro y oeste del país, las menos desarrolladas económicamente.

Igualmente, en una dimensión externa, el proyecto es de una importancia vital para las actuales ambiciones globales chinas: supondría un mayor dinamismo de la conflictiva zona oeste del país (Xinjiang, especialmente), integrándola económicamente en mayor medida con Asia Central en un intento de que ese mayor desarrollo rebaje las tensiones interétnicas; lograría ampliar la presencia e influencia de China en un largo número de países (especialmente en su entorno más cercano), reforzando su estrategia de una mayor presencia global; y, en una dinámica reforzada por el relativo “aislacionismo comercial e ideológico” actual de EEUU, se percibiría como el país que, en el momento actual, está liderando el esfuerzo por el aperturismo y la interconectividad global.

De alguna forma, la relevancia del proyecto OBOR se encuentra en que el mismo nos muestra, a la vez, tanto las ambiciones y aspiraciones chinas como, junto a ello, las problemáticas actuales del país a las que busca dar respuesta con su puesta en marcha. De ello la importancia de analizar y conocer bien el alcance de esta iniciativa y sus implicaciones.

La centralidad del proyecto para el futuro del país es clara y los propios dirigentes chinos han insistido en ello, identificándolo como la gran apuesta para los próximos años. Pero ello es, sin duda, el aspecto más llamativo de los que suscita el mismo ya que con esta apuesta tan evidente por un proyecto cuya puesta en marcha implica a tantos países, China pone su gran proyecto de futuro en manos de un entorno global que no controla y cuya evolución es cada vez más errática. Ello supone un cambio de orientación completo y muy evidente frente a la concepción histórica en la RPC bajo la cual el país nunca ha dejado que el entono internacional condicionara su modelo ni su futuro. El proyecto OBOR hace que, a partir del mismo, China esté cada vez más condicionada por la evolución del contexto internacional y que, por tanto, deba prestar cada vez mayor atención al mismo.

Es por ello que una gran parte del análisis que se hace del proyecto OBOR venga de la toma en consideración de los “riesgos” del mismo, ya sean estos de tipo financiero (capacidad de movilizar los recursos privados y externos necesarios); geopolíticos (estabilidad o inestabilidad de los países sobre los que se desarrollarán los proyectos); políticos (relación de China con cada uno de esos países y sensibilidad de la población local a una mayor presencia china), etc.

En los últimos años estos riegos ya han estado muy presentes y se ha visto como algunas de las apuestas más representativas del proyecto OBOR se han enfrentado a serios problemas que pueden llegar a cuestionar su rentabilidad o, incluso, su propio desarrollo. Un ejemplo muy significativo es el de la ruta que parte de Xinjiang, por zonas de la Cachemira paquistaní hasta llegar al puerto de Gwadar. La ambición del mismo está muy comprometida ante los evidentes riesgos de su implementación sobre el terreno en zonas con presencia talibán. También en una dimensión más política, recientemente hemos visto otro ejemplo de estos riesgos cuando en Europa Oriental, en la zona en la que más y mejor se han posicionado los intereses chinos (los países de Europa Central y Oriental agrupado en el CEE16), algunos dirigentes de países claves (Polonia) han manifestado sus dudas en relación a la conveniencia de una intensa apuesta por un mayor presencia china en sus países y el desarrollo del proyectos estratégicos (como la terminal de ferrocarriles de Lodz).

En todo caso, la voluntad china de desarrollar un proyecto de un tal alcance puede suponer una buena noticia en un contexto como el actual y es que, para desarrollar con éxito el mismo, es necesario que China muestre su perfil más conciliador. Lo estamos viendo con ejemplos recientes como el caso de Vietnam u otros países del área ASEAN (vitales en el proyecto OBOR), con los que China ha sido capaz de rebajar mucho la tensión. No en vano le va en ello la posibilidad de cumplir con sus objetivos. Un entorno hostil, fruto de una China más asertiva, puede suponer la imposibilidad de desarrollar los proyectos más emblemáticos de la Ruta de la Seda y con ello la inviabilidad de la misma.

En definitiva, el proyecto de la Ruta de la Seda no solo puede suponer un largo listado de proyectos de infraestructuras a lo largo de Asia, África y Europa (como se ha venido resumiendo el mismo) sino que, más aún, puede implicar una necesaria mayor voluntad de entendimiento de China con los países asociados a este proyecto, y una reducción de las tensiones.

La mayor exposición de China a los riesgos globales que le supone la puesta en marcha de esta ambiciosa iniciativa no solo indica un cambio de rumbo en relación a su tradicional baja exposición a  nivel internacional sino que, como añadido a ello, puede adelantar una mayor voluntad de cooperación y entendimiento a escala global en la medida en que esta es la condición necesaria e indispensable para que un proyecto de tamaña ambición se haga realidad.

Ignacio Niño Pérez

Ignacio Niño Pérez: Máster en Estudios chinos por el INALCO-Paris VII (París) y colaborador del Observatorio de Política China.

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Russia Now Runs the Peace Process to End Syria’s War

February 20th, 2017 by Eric Zuesse

Part One of Three Parts

Immediately prior to the resumption of the Syrian peace talks in Geneva on February 23rd, here’s a status-report on what has been achieved in these talks so far:

PRELIMINARY NOTE:

Many allegations in this report are contrary to what has been reported by virtually all Western press agencies, and so the documentation behind any such allegation here can immediately be accessed by the reader, simply by clicking onto its link, wherein the untrustworthiness of the Western press can be verified on the given matter, and the facts that haven’t been reported by the mainstream media are verified.

Russia Now Runs the Peace Process to End Syria’s War (I)

THE BACKGROUND PRIOR TO RUSSIA TAKING OVER THE PEACE NEGOTIATIONS

Russia took over the Syrian peace negotiations after U.S. President Barack Obama sabotaged them, by bombing the Syrian government’s army at Der Zor (or Deir Ezzor) in Syria on 17 September 2016 (which was a direct violation of the September 9thceasefire agreement). This sabotage terminated his own Secretary of State John Kerry’s longstanding efforts to get the U.S. government to agree to remove Al Qaeda and other jihadist groups from the negotiations, and to abandon Al Qaeda in Syria. Obama insisted that, during the peace negotiations, the ceasefire would continue to allow bombing of ISIS in Syria, but not allow any bombing of Al Qaeda in Syria. The September 9th ceasefire agreement allowed continued bombing of Al Qaeda in Syria, but did not allow continued bombing of Syria’s army — such as occurred on September 17th. The U.S. and Russia had both signed that deal. Obama’s prompt violation of the agreement terminated any remaining trust that the leaders of Syria and of Russia had in Obama. It thus terminated America’s ability to continue participating in the Syrian peace-process. Kerry’s years-long peace-negotiations suddenly turned to dust.

Al Qaeda in Syria went under the name of «Al Nusra», and had long been America’s main fighting-force in Syria to overthrow and replace Syria’s President, Bashar al-Assad. They were, furthermore, leading all of the jihadist groups there, who likewise were aiming to overthrow and replace Syria’s President — which was Obama’s main objective.

As Bill Roggio documented as early as 11 December 2012:

The Al Nusrah Front has by far taken the lead among the jihadist groups in executing suicide and other complex attacks against the Syrian military. The terror group is known to conduct joint operations with other Syrian jihadist organizations.

Furthermore, when the Obama regime formally declared — on that very same day, December 11th — that Nusra is a «terrorist» organization, Roggio reported the next day, that:

The head of the Syrian National Coalition, which was recognized yesterday by the United States as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people, is urging the US to drop its designation of the Al Nusrah Front as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. … And lest we think he is alone, 29 Syrian opposition groups have signed a petition that not only condemns the US’s designation, but says ‘we are all Al Nusrah.’

Obama knew that Nusra was his only hope for overthrowing Assad; and, so, he quietly decided to back them.

Al Qaeda in Syria has been absolutely central to America’s war-effort in Syria — it has provided not only America’s proxy ‘boots on the ground’ (which Obama backed up with American air power) but the leadership of America’s other proxy ‘boots on the ground’ in that war. (Since they were mere proxies, instead of actual U.S. troops, they also had the advantage for Obama, of the press not blaming the U.S. for their terror-acts. By quietly arming the jihadists, their mass-murders wouldn’t be blamed on Obama — especially because Obama himself condemned Nusra as being a «terrorist» organization. For American ‘news’ media, this put the necessary verbal distance between himself and what Nusra and the other jihadists did — which he quietly backed.)

Obama was so determined to oust Assad from Syria’s Presidency, that Obama in 2014 ordered Syria’s U.S. Embassy closed, and all of Syria’s diplomats to leave the U.S. America’s last Ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford, had already been withdrawn more than two years prior, during February 2012. Obama was personally committed to Assad’s overthrow even before being re-elected in 2012.

Obama’s only remaining communication with Assad after forcing out his diplomats was military: invading Syria (via air-attacks and via arming the tens of thousands of jihadists that were imported into Syria through Turkey and financed by the Sauds who own Saudi Arabia, and by the Thanis who own Qatar — this was a cooperative, multi-national, effort).

But his invasions of Syria were limited. He refused to go so far as hard-liners in his Administration, such as Hillary Clinton, were urging: America’s establishing a «no-fly zone» or «safe havens» in Syria, euphemisms for places in Syria where the U.S. would shoot down any Syrian or Russian warplanes — euphemisms for U.S. war against both Syria and Russia, over sovereign Syrian territory: a full-fledged invasion and war between the U.S. and not only Syria, but also against nuclearly armed Russia (which Syria’s government had invited into Syria, to help defend against the U.S.-Saudi-Qatari-Turkish invasion of Syria; the U.S. was an invader, but Russia was not). On the U.S. hardliners’ plan, of all-out invasion, Russia might thus be forced to respond with its nuclear weapons in order to avoid defeat in that traditional-armed conflict. Obama never went so far as Hillary Clinton and many others in his Administration constantly urged: escalation toward nuclear war. He limited his aggression, so as to avoid World War III.

Up until the agreement between Russia and the U.S. dated September 9th of 2016, Kerry, in his efforts to achieve a negotiated end to the Syrian war, hadn’t been able to get Obama to agree to allow continued bombing of Al Nusra (by Russian and Syrian forces — U.S. forces were protecting Al Nusra) during the peace talks, but the September 9thU.S.-Russian agreement finally did allow it. Kerry played down the agreement’s allowing Al Qaeda («Nusrah») to be bombed, and said:

Now, I want to be clear about one thing particularly on this, because I’ve seen reporting that somehow suggests otherwise: Going after Nusrah is not a concession to anybody. It is profoundly in the interests of the United States to target al-Qaida – to target al-Qaida’s affiliate in Syria, which is Nusrah.

That had indeed been his personal position on the matter, but, until September 9th, it was not the U.S. position on it: Obama had blocked it. Allowing the continued bombing (by Russia and by Syria) of «Nusrah» was the real breakthrough in the September 9th agreement, the element that Obama had always previously refused to accept.

Of course, the September 9th agreement prohibited any bombing of the Syrian government’s forces.

Suddenly, the U.S. government seemed finally to be committing itself against the international Saudi jihadist networks. Russia’s Sputnik News headlined on 12 September 2016, «Saudi-Backed Syrian Rebel Faction Ahrar al-Sham Rejects US-Russia Ceasefire Deal», and reported that:

Ahrar Al-Sham, the Saudi-backed militant organization, announced that it will reject the ceasefire which is to enter into force on Monday, September 12. The militant group, which has evaded being labeled a terrorist organization thanks to US veto in the UN Security council, announced that it will not comply with the ceasefire negotiated by US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

Everyone thought that Obama had now become serious about ending America’s reliance upon jihadists as foot-soldiers in its until-then-permanent war against Russia.

However, The New York Times gave Obama on Tuesday September 13th a fall-guy to take the heat for the soon-to-come violation of Obama’s new international agreement. The headline was «Details of Syria Pact Widen Rift Between John Kerry and Pentagon», and the report made clear that Obama’s Secretary of ‘Defense’, Ashton Carter, and others at the Pentagon, were passionately opposed to the deal:

On Tuesday at the Pentagon, officials would not even agree that if a cessation of violence in Syria held for seven days — the initial part of the deal — the Defense Department would put in place its part of the agreement on the eighth day… In private, he [Kerry] has conceded to aides and friends that he believes it will not work. But he has said he is determined to try, so that he and Mr. Obama do not leave office having failed to alleviate a civil war that has taken roughly half a million lives… At a time when the United States and Russia are at their most combative posture since the end of the Cold War, the American military is suddenly being told that it may, in a week, have to start sharing intelligence with one of its biggest adversaries to jointly target Islamic State and Nusra Front forces in Syria… But to Mr. Kerry’s inner team of advisers, the Pentagon approach was reflexive Cold War-era thinking.

Then, Obama’s bombing of Syria’s army at Der Zor on September 17th ended the September 9th agreement. His deception-tactic soon became clear. That bombing in blatant violation of the new agreement could not have been authorized by anyone below the Commander-in-Chief himself — or, if it had been, that person would promptly have been fired by the Commander-in-Chief. No one was fired.

Both Russia and Syria excluded the United States from any further participation in the peace-talks process.

From that moment on, Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin, and Syria’s leader Assad, knew that America’s leader Obama was entirely untrustworthy — not someone suitable to negotiate with. They knew that Obama would (and, there, did) even help ISIS take over Der Zor in order to bring about the overthrow of Assad. It wasn’t just Nusra that Obama was continuing to support — it now was even ISIS; anything to replace Assad.

Al Qaeda is funded by the aristocracies of the Arabic oil kingdoms, and is funded, above all, by the royal family of America’s chief ally in the Middle East, the Saud family who own Saudi Arabia. The Saud family insisted, and Obama accepted, that jihadists — who would be selected by the Sauds — control the negotiating team representing ‘the rebels’ at the negotiations. It would be basically the Sauds negotiating against Assad, to discuss the arrangements for a new government to replace Assad’s government, and to establish Sharia law in Syria (which is the most-secular nation in the Middle East). Syria under the Assads has been and is, the only secular nation in the Middle East, and the Sauds’ aim has always been to replace it with a fundamentalist-Sunni government, like theirs in Saudi Arabia (or like that of the Thani family who own Qatar, or any of the other Arabic royal families). The U.S. government has backed the Saud family, in this goal.

(Part Two and Three will be published by GR on Feb 21, 22)

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Who Americans Consider Their Greatest Enemies

February 19th, 2017 by Niall McCarthy

Americans have consistently identified ISIS as the biggest threat to their nation across multiple polls. Traditional foes, such as the countries making up George W. Bush’s infamous “Axis Of Evil”, have been pushed into the background by the rise of non-state actors like Al-Qaeda and ISIS. In recent years however, the threat presented by some of America’s traditional enemies has started to manifest itself once again. Russia’s annexation of Crimea came as a reality check to the Obama administration while as recently as last Saturday, North Korea conducted a ballistic missile test.

YouGov conducted a poll to find out which countries Americans perceive as their nation’s biggest enemies. North Korea has continued to make headlines even after that missile launch with news emerging earlier this week that Kim-Jong-un’s half brother was allegedly poisoned in an airport in Malaysia. Both incidents have illustrated the unpredictability of the nuclear-armed regime in Pyongyang and it comes as little surprise that 57 percent of Americans consider North Korea their enemy.

Some of the entries on the upper portion of the infographic below are surprising. Iraq and Afghanistan were considered U.S. enemies by 29 and 23 percent of respondents respectivley, despite their governments being key U.S. allies in the fight against Islamic extremism. Iran was labelled an enemy by 41 percent of Americans, even though a deal was signed last year to prevent Tehran developing nuclear weapons.

This chart shows the percentage of American adults considering these countries an enemy of the U.S.

Infographic: Who Americans Consider Their Greatest Enemies  | Statista You will find more statistics at Statista

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Who Americans Consider Their Greatest Enemies

February 19th, 2017 by Niall McCarthy

Americans have consistently identified ISIS as the biggest threat to their nation across multiple polls. Traditional foes, such as the countries making up George W. Bush’s infamous “Axis Of Evil”, have been pushed into the background by the rise of non-state actors like Al-Qaeda and ISIS. In recent years however, the threat presented by some of America’s traditional enemies has started to manifest itself once again. Russia’s annexation of Crimea came as a reality check to the Obama administration while as recently as last Saturday, North Korea conducted a ballistic missile test.

YouGov conducted a poll to find out which countries Americans perceive as their nation’s biggest enemies. North Korea has continued to make headlines even after that missile launch with news emerging earlier this week that Kim-Jong-un’s half brother was allegedly poisoned in an airport in Malaysia. Both incidents have illustrated the unpredictability of the nuclear-armed regime in Pyongyang and it comes as little surprise that 57 percent of Americans consider North Korea their enemy.

Some of the entries on the upper portion of the infographic below are surprising. Iraq and Afghanistan were considered U.S. enemies by 29 and 23 percent of respondents respectivley, despite their governments being key U.S. allies in the fight against Islamic extremism. Iran was labelled an enemy by 41 percent of Americans, even though a deal was signed last year to prevent Tehran developing nuclear weapons.

This chart shows the percentage of American adults considering these countries an enemy of the U.S.

Infographic: Who Americans Consider Their Greatest Enemies  | Statista You will find more statistics at Statista

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The Stakes for Trump and All of Us

February 19th, 2017 by Dr. Paul Craig Roberts

We need to understand, and so does President Trump, that the hoax “war on terror” was used to transform intelligence agencies, such as the NSA and CIA, and criminal investigative agencies, such as the FBI, into Gestapo secret police agencies. Trump is now threatened by these agencies, because he rejects the neoconservative’s agenda of US world hegemony that supports the gigantic military/security annual budget.

Our secret police agencies are busy at work planting “intelligence” among the presstitute media that Trump is compromised by “Russian connections” and is a security threat to the United States. The plan is to make a case in the media, as was done against President Nixon, and to force Trump from office. To openly take on a newly elected president is an act of extraordinary audacity that implies enormous confidence, or else desperation, on the part of the police state agencies.

Here you can see CNN openly cooperating with the CIA in treating wild and irresponsible speculation that Trump is under Russian influence as if it is an established fact

.http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/46476.htm 

The “evidence” provided by CNN and the CIA is a “report” by the New York Times that, with little doubt, was planted in the NYT by the CIA.

This is so obvious that it is clear that CNN and the CIA regard the American people as so gullible as to be completely stupid.

Glenn Greenwald explains to Amy Goodman that the CIA is after Trump, because Trump’s announced policy of reducing the dangerous tensions with Russia conflicts with the military/security complex’s need for a major enemy.

“The deep state, although there’s no precise or scientific definition, generally refers to the agencies in Washington that are permanent power factions. They stay and exercise power even as presidents who are elected come and go. They typically exercise their power in secret, in the dark, and so they’re barely subject to democratic accountability, if they’re subject to it at all.

It’s agencies like the CIA, the NSA and the other intelligence agencies, that are essentially designed to disseminate disinformation and deceit and propaganda, and have a long history of doing not only that, but also have a long history of the world’s worst war crimes, atrocities and death squads. This is who not just people like Bill Kristol, but lots of Democrats are placing their faith in, are trying to empower, are cheering for as they exert power separate and apart from—in fact, in opposition to—the political officials to whom they’re supposed to be subordinate.

And you go—this is not just about Russia. You go all the way back to the campaign, and what you saw was that leading members of the intelligence community, including Mike Morell, who was the acting CIA chief under President Obama, and Michael Hayden, who ran both the CIA and the NSA under George W. Bush, were very outspoken supporters of Hillary Clinton. In fact, Michael Morell went to The New York Times, and Michael Hayden went to The Washington Post, during the campaign to praise Hillary Clinton and to say that Donald Trump had become a recruit of Russia. The CIA and the intelligence community were vehemently in support of Clinton and vehemently opposed to Trump, from the beginning. And the reason was, was because they liked Hillary Clinton’s policies better than they liked Donald Trump’s. One of the main priorities of the CIA for the last five years has been a proxy war in Syria, designed to achieve regime change with the Assad regime. Hillary Clinton was not only for that, she was critical of Obama for not allowing it to go further, and wanted to impose a no-fly zone in Syria and confront the Russians. Donald Trump took exactly the opposite view. He said we shouldn’t care who rules Syria; we should allow the Russians, and even help the Russians, kill ISIS and al-Qaeda and other people in Syria. So, Trump’s agenda that he ran on was completely antithetical to what the CIA wanted. Clinton’s was exactly what the CIA wanted, and so they were behind her. And so, they’ve been trying to undermine Trump for many months throughout the election. And now that he won, they are not just undermining him with leaks, but actively subverting him. There’s claims that they’re withholding information from him, on the grounds that they don’t think he should have it and can be trusted with it. They are empowering themselves to enact policy.

Now, I happen to think that the Trump presidency is extremely dangerous. You just listed off in your news—in your newscast that led the show, many reasons. They want to dismantle the environment. They want to eliminate the safety net. They want to empower billionaires. They want to enact bigoted policies against Muslims and immigrants and so many others. And it is important to resist them. And there are lots of really great ways to resist them, such as getting courts to restrain them, citizen activism and, most important of all, having the Democratic Party engage in self-critique to ask itself how it can be a more effective political force in the United States after it has collapsed on all levels. That isn’t what this resistance is now doing. What they’re doing instead is trying to take maybe the only faction worse than Donald Trump, which is the deep state, the CIA, with its histories of atrocities, and say they ought to almost engage in like a soft coup, where they take the elected president and prevent him from enacting his policies. And I think it is extremely dangerous to do that. Even if you’re somebody who believes that both the CIA and the deep state, on the one hand, and the Trump presidency, on the other, are extremely dangerous, as I do, there’s a huge difference between the two, which is that Trump was democratically elected and is subject to democratic controls, as these courts just demonstrated and as the media is showing, as citizens are proving. But on the other hand, the CIA was elected by nobody. They’re barely subject to democratic controls at all. And so, to urge that the CIA and the intelligence community empower itself to undermine the elected branches of government is insanity. That is a prescription for destroying democracy overnight in the name of saving it. And yet that’s what so many, not just neocons, but the neocons’ allies in the Democratic Party, are now urging and cheering. And it’s incredibly warped and dangerous to watch them do that.

The United States is now in the extraordinary situation that the liberal/progressive/left is allied with the deep state against democracy. The liberal/progressive/left are lobbying for the impeachment of a president who has committed no impeachable offense. The neoconservatives have stated their preference for a deep state coup against democracy. The media obliges with a constant barrage of lies, innuendos and disinformation. The insouciant American public sits there sucking its thumb.

What can Trump do? He can clean out the intelligence agencies and terminate their license granted by Bush and Obama to conduct unconstitutional activities. He can use anti-trust to breakup the media conglomerates that Clinton allowed to form. If Bush and Obama can on their own authority subject US citizens to indefinite detention without due process and if Obama can murder suspect US citizens without due process of law, Trump can use anti-trust law to break up the media conglomerates that speak with one voice against him.

At this point Trump has no alternative but to fight. He can take down the secret police agencies and the presstitute media conglomerates, or they will take him down. Dismissing Flynn was the worse thing to do. He should have kept Flynn and fired the “leakers” who are actively using disinformation against him. The NSA would have to know who the leakers are. Trump should clean out the corrupt NSA management and install officials who will identify the leakers. Then Trump should prosecute the leakers to the full extent of the law.

No president can survive secret police agencies determined to destroy him. If Trump’s advisers don’t know this, Trump desperately needs new advisers.

Dr. Paul Craig Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy and associate editor of the Wall Street Journal. He was columnist for Business Week, Scripps Howard News Service, and Creators Syndicate. He has had many university appointments. His internet columns have attracted a worldwide following. Roberts’ latest books are The Failure of Laissez Faire Capitalism and Economic Dissolution of the WestHow America Was Lost, and The Neoconservative Threat to World Order.

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President Trump: Diplomacy and Democracy in America

February 19th, 2017 by Prof. James Petras

By the end of the first month of President Trump’s Administration we are in a better position to evaluate the policies and direction of the new President.  An examination of foreign and domestic policy, particularly from a historical and comparative perspective will provide insights about whether America is heading for a catastrophe as the mass media claim or toward greater realism and rationality. 

We will proceed by examining whether Trump pursues diplomacy over warfare.  We will evaluate the President’s efforts to reduce US foreign debt and trade burdens with Europe and Asia .  We will follow with a discussion of his immigration and protectionist policies with Mexico .  Finally we will touch on the prospects for democracy in the United States.

Foreign Policy

President Trump’s meeting with the leaders of Japan , the United Kingdom and Canada were largely successful.  The Abe-Trump meeting led to closer diplomatic ties and a promise that Japan would increase their investment in automobile manufacturing in the US .  Trump may have improved trade relations by reducing the trade imbalances.  Trump and Abe adopted a moderate position on the North Korean missile test in the Sea of Japan , rejecting a further military build-up as the liberal-neo-con media demanded.

US-UK meeting, in the post-Brexit period, promised to increase trade.

Trump moved to improve relations with China , clearly backing the ‘single China ’ policy and proceeding to re-negotiate and re-balance trade relations.

The US backed the unanimous UN Security Council vote to condemn North Korea ’s missile launch.  Trump did not consider it a military threat or rising to the level of additional sanctions.

Trump’s policy of reconciliation with Russia in order to improve the war against Islamist terrorism has been stymied.  Led by the witch-hunting left liberal Senator Elizabeth Warren, neo-conservative militarists and Democrats pronounced Russia as the primary threat to US national security!

The rabid, ceaseless mass media blitz forced the resignation of Trump’s National Security Adviser, Ret. General Michael Flynn, on the basis of an 18th century law (the Logan Act) that prohibited private citizens from discussing policy with foreign leaders.  This law has never been implemented.  If it were enforced, hundreds of thousands of American citizens, most especially the big-wigs among the 51 ‘Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations’, as well as the foreign affairs editors of all major and minor US media outlets and foreign policy academics would be on the ‘chain-gangs’ with convicted drug dealers.  Never embarrassed by absurdity or by trivializing tragedy, this recent ‘Tempest in the Teapot’ has whipped up passionate calls by the media and Democratic Party operatives for a new ‘Nine-Eleven Style Investigation’ into General Flynn talks with the Russians.

Trump’s setback on his National Security Adviser Flynn has put the prospects for improved, less bellicose foreign affairs in danger.  It heightens the risk for a nuclear confrontations and domestic repression.  These dangers, including a domestic anti-Russian McCarthy-style purge of foreign policy ‘realists’, are exclusively the responsibility of the ultra-militarist Democratic Party-Neo-Conservative alliance.  None of this addresses the serious domestic socioeconomic problems.

Rebalancing Foreign Spending and Trade

Trump’s public commitment about rebalancing US relations with NATO, namely reducing the US share of funding, has already started.  Currently only five NATO members meet the required contribution.  Trump’s insistence on Germany , Italy , Spain , Canada , France and 18 other members fulfilling their commitments would add over $100 billion to NATO’s budget – reducing US foreign imbalances.

Of course, it would be far better for all if NATO was disbanded and the various nations re-allocate these many hundreds of billions of dollars for social spending and domestic economic development.

Trump has announced a major effort to reduce US trade imbalances in Asia .  Contrary to the claims, often made by foreign trade ‘experts’ in the mass media, China is not the only, or even the largest, among the ‘offenders’ in exploiting unbalanced trade with the US .

China ’s current account trade surplus is 5% of its GDP, while South Korea ’s is 8%, Taiwan ’s 15% and Singapore ’s is 19%.  Trump’s target is to reduce the US trade imbalances to $20 billion dollars with each country or 3% of GDP.  Trump’s quota of $100 billion dollars stands in marked contrast to the  ‘Asian Five’s’ (Japan, China, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore) current trade imbalance of $700 billion dollars in 2015, according to the International Monetary Fund.

In sum, Trump is moving to reduce external imbalances by 85% in order to increase domestic production and create jobs for US-based industries.

Trump and Latin America

Trump’s Latin America policy is focused primarily on Mexico and to a much lesser degree on the rest of the continent.

The White House’s biggest move has been to scuttle Obama’s Trans-Pacific Trade Partnership, which favored multi-national corporations exploiting Chile , Peru and Mexico ’s work force, as well as attracting the neo-liberal regimes in Argentina and Uruguay .  Trump inherits from President Obama numerous military bases in Colombia , Guantanamo , Cuba and Argentina.  The Pentagon has continued Obama’s ‘cold war’ with Venezuela – falsely accusing the Venezuelan Vice President of drug trafficking.

Trump has promised to alter US trade and immigration policy with Mexico .  Despite the widespread opposition to Trump’s immigration policy, he lags far behind Obama’s massive expulsion of immigrants from Mexico and Central America .  America ’s deportation champion was President Barack Obama, who expelled 2.2 million immigrants and their family members in eight years, or approximately 275,000 a month.  In his first month in office, President Trump has deported just one percent of Obama’s monthly average.

President Trump promises to re-negotiate NAFTA, imposing a tax on imports and enticing US multinational corporations to return and invest in America .

There are numerous hidden advantages for Mexico if it responds to Trump’s policies with its own ‘reciprocal protectionist’ economic measures.  Under NAFTA, 2 million Mexican farmers went into bankruptcy and billions of dollars have been spent importing (subsidized) rice, corn and other staples from the US .  A ‘Mexico First’ policy could open the door for a revival of Mexican agriculture for domestic consumption and export; this would also decrease out-migration of Mexican farm workers.  Mexico could re-nationalize its oil industry and invest in domestic refineries gaining billions of dollars and reducing imports of refined petroleum products from the US .  With an obligatory import-substitution policy, local manufacturing could increase the domestic market and employment.  Jobs would increase in the formal economy and reduce the number of unemployed youth recruited by the drug cartels and other criminal gangs.  By nationalizing the banks and controlling capital flows, Mexico could block the annual outflow of about $50 billion dollars of illicit funds.  National-popular policies, via reciprocity, would strengthen the election of new leaders who could begin to purge the corrupt police, military and political leadership.

In sum, while the Trump policies may cause some short-term losses, it can lead to substantial medium and long-term advantages for the Mexican people and nation.

Democracy

President Trump’s election has provoked a virulent authoritarian campaign threatening our democratic freedoms.

Highly coordinated and endless propaganda by all the major media and the two political parties have fabricated and distorted reports and encouraged elected representatives to savage Trump’s foreign policy appointees, forcing resignations and reversals of policy.  The forced resignation of National Security Advisor Michael Flynn highlights the Democratic Party’s pro-war agenda against nuclear-armed Russia .  Liberal Senators, who once made grand speeches against ‘Wall Street’ and the ‘One Percent’, now demand Trump reject working with Russian President Putin against the real threat of ISIS while supporting the neo-Nazis in Ukraine .  Liberal icons openly push for sending more US warships in Asia to provoke China , while opposing Trump’s policy of favorably re-negotiating trade deals with Beijing .

There are many hidden dangers and advantages in this partisan political warfare.

Trump has exposed the systemic lies and distortions of the mass media, confirming the distrust held by a majority of Americans for the corporate news media.  The low opinion of the media, especially held by Americans in the economically devastated center of the country (those described by Hillary Clinton as the ‘deplorables’) is clearly matched by the media’s deep disdain for this huge portion of the electorate.  Indeed, the constant media chatter about how the evil ‘Russians’ had hacked the US presidential elections giving the victory to Donald Trump, is more likely a ‘dog whistle’ to mask their unwillingness to openly denounce the ‘poor whites’– including workers and rural Americans – who overwhelmingly voted for Trump.  This class and regional element goes a long way to explain the constant hysteria over Trump’s victory.  There is widespread fury among the elites, intellectuals and bureaucrats over the fact that Clinton’s big ‘basket of deplorables’ rejected the system and rejected its coiffured and manicured media mouthpieces.

For the first time there is a political debate over freedom of speech at the highest levels of government.   The same debate extends to the new President’s challenge from the enormous, uncontrolled police state apparatus (FBI, NSA, CIA, Homeland Security, etc..), which expanded massively under Barack Obama.

Trump’s trade and alliance policies have awakened the US Congress to debates over substantive issues rather than internal procedural quibbles.  Even Trump’s rhetorical policies have aroused mass demonstrations, some of which are bona fide, while others are bankrolled by billionaire supporters of the Democratic Party and its neo-liberal expansionist agenda, like the ‘Grand Sugar Daddy of the Color Revolutions’ George Soros.  It is a serious question whether this may provide an opening for genuine grass-roots democratic-socialist movements to organize and take advantage of the rift among the elite.

The bogus charges of ‘treasonous’ communication with the Russian Ambassador  against Trump’s National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, while still a civilian, and the convoking of the Logan Act against civilians discussing foreign policy with foreign governments, opens up the possibility of investigating legislators, like Charles Schumer and several hundred others, for discussing US strategic policy positions with Israeli officials…

Win or lose, the Trump Administration has opened a debate on the possibilities of peace with a nuclear superpower, a re-examination of the huge trade deficit and the necessity to stand-up for democracy against authoritarian threats from the so-called ‘intelligence community’ against an elected President.

Trump and the Class Struggle

The Trump socio-economic agenda has already set in motion powerful undercurrents of class conflict.  The media and political class have focused on conflicts over immigration, gender issues, and relations with Russia , NATO and Israel as well as intra-party politics.  These conflicts obscure deeper class antagonisms, which grow out of Trump’s radical economic proposals.

President Trump’s proposal to reduce the power of the federal regulatory and investigatory agencies, simplify and lower taxes, curtail spending on NATO, re-negotiate or scrap multilateral agreements and cut the budgets for research, health and education all seriously threaten the employment for millions of public sector workers and officials across the country.  Many of the hundreds of thousands of protestors at the women’s rallies and marches for immigration and education are public employees and their family members who are under economic threat.  What appears on the surface to be protests over specific cultural, identity or human rights issues are manifestations of a deeper and more extensive struggle between public sector employees and the agenda of a privatizing state, which draws its class support from small business people attracted by lower taxes and less regulatory burdens, as well as private ‘charter school’ officials and hospital administrators.

Trump’s protectionist measures, including export subsidies, pit the domestic manufacturers against multi-billion dollar importers of cheap consumer goods.

Trump’s proposals for deregulated oil, gas, timber, more agro-mineral exports and major infrastructure investments are supported by bosses and workers in those sectors.  This has provoked a sharp conflict with environmentalists, community-based workers and producers, indigenous peoples and their supporters.

Trump’s initial effort to mobilize domestic class forces opposed to continued budget-draining overseas warfare and in support of market relations-based empire building has been defeated by the combined efforts of the military-industrial complex, the intelligence apparatus and their supporters in a liberal-neo-conservative-militarist political elite coalition and their mass supporters.

The evolving class struggle has deepened and threatens to tear apart the constitutional order in two directions: The conflict can lead to an institutional crisis and toward the forceful ouster of an elected president and the installation of a hybrid regime, which will preserve the most reactionary programs of both sides of the class conflict.  Importers, investors and workers in extractive industries, supporters of privatized educations and healthcare, warmongers and members of the politicized security apparatus may take total control of the state.

On the other hand, if the class struggle can mobilize the public sector workers, workers in the commercial sector, the unemployed, the anti-war democrats and progressive IT entrepreneurs and employers dependent on skilled immigrants, as well as scientists and environmentalists into a massive movement willing to support a living wage and unify around common class interests, deep systemic change becomes possible.  In the medium term, the unification of these class movements can lead to a progressive hybrid regime.

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The “West” and its allies are not leading a “counter-terrorism” campaign in Syria.  The publicly –disclosed, previously-planned Government-change war against non-belligerent, democratic, pluralist, secular Syria, is a terrorist campaign.

Known, documented, and amply proven, the West is using organizations, including ISIS and al Qaeda, in its attempts to destroy Syria[1].

We also know that the West used – and likely continues to use — depleted uranium ordnances throughout its illegal invasion and occupation of Iraq.  Depleted uranium ordnances are weapons of mass destruction that continue to kill innocent Iraqis, and will do so for many years to come.

But the recently-disclosed story about the U.S using depleted uranium ordnances in Syria is suspect – not because there is reasonable doubt that the U.S used them – but because the story is being conflated in Western media with the notion that the weapons were used against ISIS.

While the West sometimes attacks “both sides” to prolong the destruction and warfare, and/or to create intra-Syrian conflict, the notion that the weapons were used against ISIS infrastructure is (intentionally) misleading in the sense that it creates the false perception that the West is trying to destroy ISIS (despite on-the ground evidence to the contrary). Prior to Russia’s legal intervention in Syria, ISIS territory expanded beneath the illegal western bombardments.[2]

The news story also ties in with the resignation of General Flynn, which appears to be the result of deep /dark state interventions that aim to upend President Trump and advance the causes of global war and poverty.  Consider, for example, that it was General Flynn who publicly confirmed that the West’s support for ISIS and other terrorist groups was a “willful decision”. Consider also Robert Perry’s assessment at Consortium News:

Flynn’s real “offense” appears to be that he favors détente with Russia rather than escalation of a new and dangerous Cold War. Trump’s idea of a rapprochement with Moscow – and a search for areas of cooperation and compromise – has been driving Official Washington’s foreign policy establishment crazy for months and the neocons, in particular, have been determined to block it.[3]

Time will tell, but domestic populations would do well to consider “Cui bono?”  The Military Industrial Complex “benefits” from global war and poverty, but the rest of us have literally everything to lose.

Former high school teacher Mark Taliano is an author and independent investigative reporter who recently returned from a trip to Syria with the Third International Tour of Peace to Syria. In this book, he combines years of research with on-the-ground observations to present an informed and well-documented analysis that refutes mainstream media narratives about the dirty war on Syria.

**New Book: Voices from Syria**

Author: Mark Taliano

ISBN Number: 978-0-9737147-9-1

Year: 2017

Product Type: PDF File

List Price: $6.50

Special Offer: $5.00 

Click to order

Notes

[1] Mark Taliano, Voices From Syria, 26

[2] Stephen Gowans, “Allying with ‘Political Islam’: Washington’s Tactical Alliances with Al Qaeda and ISIS in Syria”, Global Research, July 18, 2016

[3] Robert Parry, “Trump Caves on Flynn’s Resignation”, Consortium News, February 14, 2017

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El presidente de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, no ha entendido que el pueblo de México está en contra de la sucursal que el “gobierno imperial” de Washington y Nueva York le ha impuesto desde 1970 para acá.

Trump tiene claro que esa camarilla -cuya cabeza visible, ahora, es Hillary Clinton– quiere derrocarlo a través de la violencia, interna y externa.

Por ejemplo, se sabe ya que el multimillonario especulador George Soros está detrás de las manifestaciones -algunas de ellas muy violentas- en contra de Donald Trump.

También, que ese núcleo de subversivos cosmopolitas y apátridas se enriquece mediante la promoción de las guerras. Digámoslo claro: es el establishment clintoniano el que atiza la violencia letal en Crimea, en Siria y en Irak, por citar tres ejemplos.

Con base en lo anterior, es que afirmamos que Trump debe cambiar de estrategia en el caso de México, por su bien y por el nuestro. Procedamos a explicarnos:

1. La mayoría de los medios de comunicación en México opera como caja de resonancia de los que manipulan a la opinión pública mundial. Por eso, pone a Trump como violento, antimexicano y racista. Con ese “bombardeo” diario de mensajes envenenados, fabrican una reacción contraria de los mexicanos al jefe de la Casa Blanca; reacción basada sobre todo en el aspecto emocional. El golpeteo es emocional y, por ende, muy peligroso.

2. En tanto, el establishment utiliza la guerra en otras partes del mundo, con la esperanza de evitar un acuerdo tripartita: Washington, Moscú y Beijing. De concretarse, se conjuraría el riesgo de una guerra global, lo que se traduciría en grandes pérdidas para el complejo militar, industrial y financiero que se apoderó de los Estados Unidos desde 1913, cuando se formó la Reserva Federal. Sin guerra, bajaría la venta de armas y el financiamiento de las mismas.

3. Ese establishment no dudaría, por lo tanto, en provocar un conflicto armado en México, con el pretexto de respaldar a la población mexicana que está enojada con Trump. Esto provocaría dos perdedores: México y Trump. Los ganadores serían los halcones de la guerra y de la usura, a quienes sirve Hillary Clinton. En nuestra tierra operan guerrilleros y narcotraficantes. Al buen entendedor…

Lo que debe hacer Trump, por lo tanto, es cambiar de estrategia. ¿Cómo? Esbocemos algunas posibles acciones de Estado:

1. Desenmascarar a los operadores del “gobierno imperial” que operan en nuestro país, a fin de que la opinión pública de nuestro país los conozca.

2. Demostrar con palabras sencillas que al amparo del Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte (TLCAN), las empresas transnacionales establecidas en Estados Unidos se dedicaron a montar plantas maquiladoras en México, que pagan salarios de miseria y que, como lógica consecuencia, provocaron el éxodo de cientos de miles de trabajadores rurales y urbanos a tierras estadounidenses, con la esperanza de ganar allá lo que les regatean aquí.

3. Demostrar que el muro fronterizo fue ordenado por el ex presidente George Walker Bush y respaldado por su sucesor, Barack Obama.

4. Detener el flujo de armas ilegales a nuestro país y frenar el altísimo consumo de drogas en Estados Unidos. Enfrentar el tema del narcotráfico no sólo desde el punto de vista de seguridad, sino de salud pública.

A los mexicanos, en tanto, nos correspondería -nos corresponde, en realidad- organizarnos para apoyar a los micro, pequeños y medianos empresarios, comprándoles, además de promover a los genuinos líderes ciudadanos para que desplacen por la vía legal a los dueños de la sucursal del “gobierno imperial” que se enriquecen a costa del pueblo al que dicen gobernar.

Porque Peña Nieto y compañía son simples lacayos de la camarilla que ataca a Trump.

Claro que estamos en desacuerdo con los abusos de mister Donald; por eso, le decimos que reconozca sus errores y que enmiende sus faltas. Por su bien y… por el nuestro.

Jorge Santa Cruz

Jorge Santa Cruz: Periodista mexicano.

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As if the 2016 U.S. presidential election campaign hadn’t been horrendous enough, here comes another one: in France. 

The system in France is very different, with multiple candidates in two rounds, most of them highly articulate, who often even discuss real issues. Free television time reduces the influence of big money. The first round on April 23 will select the two finalists for the May 7 runoff, allowing for much greater choice than in the United States.

But monkey see, monkey do, and the mainstream political class wants to mimic the ways of the Empire, even echoing the theme that dominated the 2016 show across the Atlantic: the evil Russians are messing with our wonderful democracy.

The aping of the U.S. system began with “primaries” held by the two main governing parties which obviously aspire to establish themselves as the equivalent of American Democrats and Republicans in a two-party system.  The right-wing party of former president Nicolas Sarkozy has already renamed itself Les Républicains and the so-called Socialist Party leaders are just waiting for the proper occasion to call themselves Les Démocrates. But as things are going, neither one of them may come out ahead this time.

Given the nearly universal disaffection with the outgoing Socialist Party government of President François Hollande, the Republicans were long seen as the natural favorites to defeat Marine LePen, who is shown by all polls to top the first round. With such promising prospects, the Republican primary brought out more than twice as many volunteer voters (they must pay a small sum and claim allegiance to the party’s “values” in order to vote) as the Socialists.  Sarkozy was eliminated, but more surprising, so was the favorite, the reliable establishment team player, Bordeaux mayor Alain Juppé, who had been leading in the polls and in media editorials.

Fillon’s Family Values

In a surprise show of widespread public disenchantment with the political scene, Republican voters gave landside victory to former prime minister François Fillon, a practicing Catholic with an ultra-neoliberal domestic policy: lower taxes for corporations, drastic cuts in social welfare, even health health insurance benefits – accelerating what previous governments have been doing but more openly. Less conventionally, Fillon strongly condemns the current anti Russian policy.  Fillon also deviates from the Socialist government’s single-minded commitment to overthrowing Assad by showing sympathy for embattled Christians in Syria and their protector, which happens to be the Assad government.

Fillon has the respectable look, as the French say, of a person who could take communion without first going to confession.  As a campaign theme he credibly stressed his virtuous capacity to oppose corruption.

Oops!  On January 25, the semi-satirical weekly Le Canard Enchainé fired the opening shots of an ongoing media campaign designed to undo the image of Mister Clean, revealing that his British wife, Penelope, had been paid a generous salary for working as his assistant. As Penelope was known for staying home and raising their children in the countryside, the existence of that work is in serious doubt.  Fillon also paid his son a lawyer’s fee for unspecified tasks and his daughter for supposedly assisting him write a book.  In a sense, these allegations prove the strength of the conservative candidate’s family values.  But his ratings have fallen and he faces possible criminal charges for fraud.

The scandal is real, but the timing is suspect.  The facts are many years old, and the moment of their revelation is well calculated to ensure his defeat.  Moreover, the very day after the Canard’s revelations, prosecutors hastily opened an inquiry.  In comparison with all the undisclosed dirty work and unsolved blood crimes committed by those in control of the French State over the years, especially during its foreign wars, enriching one’s own family may seem relatively minor.  But that is not the way the public sees it.

Cui bono

It is widely assumed that despite National Front candidate Marine LePen’s constant lead in the polls, whoever comes in second will win the runoff because the established political class and the media will rally around the cry to “save the Republic!”  Fear of the National Front as “a threat to the Republic” has become a sort of protection racket for the established parties, since it stigmatizes as unacceptable a large swath of opposition to themselves.  In the past, both main parties have sneakily connived to strengthen the National Front in order to take votes away from their adversary.

Thus, bringing down Fillon increases the chances that the candidate of the now thoroughly discredited Socialist Party may find himself in the magic second position after all, as the knight to slay the LePen dragon.  But who exactly is the Socialist candidate? That is not so clear.  There is the official Socialist Party candidate, Benoît Hamon. But the independent spin-off from the Hollande administration, Emmanuel Macron, “neither right nor left”, is gathering support from the right of the Socialist Party as well as from most of the neo-liberal globalist elite.

Macron is scheduled to be the winner. But first, a glance at his opposition on the left.  With his ratings in the single digits, François Hollande very reluctantly gave into entreaties from his colleagues to avoid the humiliation of running for a second term and losing badly.  The badly attended Socialist Party primary was expected to select the fiercely pro-Israel prime minister Manuel Valls.  Or if not, on his left, Arnaud Montebourg, a sort of Warren Beatty of French politics, famous for his romantic liaisons and his advocacy of re-industrialization of France.

Again, surprise.  The winner was a colorless, little-known party hack named Benoît Hamon, who rode the wave of popular discontent to appear as a leftist critic and alternative to a Socialist government which sold out all Holland’s promises to combat “finance” and assaulted the rights of the working class instead.  Hamon spiced up his claim to be “on the left” by coming up with a gimmick that is fashionable elsewhere in Europe but a novelty in French political discourse: the “universal basic income”.  The idea of giving every citizen an equal handout can sound appealing to young people having trouble finding a job. But this idea, which originated with Milton Friedman and other apostles of unleashed financial capitalism, is actually a trap.  The project assumes that unemployment is permanent, in contrast to projects to create jobs or share work.  It would be financed by replacing a whole range of existing social allocations, in the name of “getting rid of bureaucracy” and “freedom of consumption”. The project would complete the disempowerment of the working class as a political force, destroying the shared social capital represented by public services, and splitting the dependent classes between paid workers and idle consumers.

There is scant chance that the universal income is about to become a serious item on the French political agenda.  For the moment, Hamon’s claim to radicality serves to lure voters away from the independent left-wing candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon.  Both are vying for support from greens and militants of the French Communist Party, which has lost all capacity to define its own positions.

The Divided Left

An impressive orator, Mélenchon gained prominence in 2005 as a leading opponent of the proposed European Constitution, which was decisively rejected by the French in a referendum, but was nevertheless adopted under a new name by the French national assembly.  Like so many leftists in France, Mélenchon has a Trotskyist background (the Posadists, more attuned to Third World revolutions than their rivals) before joining the Socialist Party, which he left in 2008 to found the Parti de Gauche.  He has sporadically wooed the rudderless Communist Party to join him as the Front de Gauche (the Left Front) and has declared himself its candidate for President on a new independent ticket called La France insoumise – roughly translated as “Insubordinate France”. Mélenchon is combative with France’s docile media, as he defends such unorthodox positions as praise of Chavez and rejection of France’s current Russophobic foreign policy.  Unlike the conventional Hamon, who follows the Socialist party line, Mélenchon wants France to leave both the euro and NATO.

There are only two really strong personalities in this lineup: Mélenchon on the left and his adversary of choice, Marine LePen, on the right.  In the past, their rivalry in local elections has kept both from winning even though she came out ahead.  Their positions on foreign policy are hard to distinguish from each other: criticism of the European Union, desire to leave NATO, good relations with Russia.

Since both deviate from the establishment line, both are denounced as “populists” – a term that is coming to mean anyone who pays more attention to what ordinary people want that to what the Establishment dictates.

On domestic social policy, on preservation of social services and workers’ rights, Marine is well to the left of Fillon.  But the stigma attached to the National Front as the “far right” remains, even though, with her close advisor Florian Philippot, she has ditched her father, Jean-Marie, and adjusted the party line to appeal to working class voters.  The main relic of the old National Front is her hostility to immigration, which now centers on fear of Islamic terrorists. The terrorist killings in Paris and Nice have made these positions more popular than they used to be. In her effort to overcome her father’s reputation as anti-Semitic, Marine LePen has done her best to woo the Jewish community, helped by her rejection of “ostentatious” Islam, going so far as to call for a ban on wearing an ordinary Muslim headscarf in public.

A runoff between Mélenchon and LePen would be an encounter between a revived left and a revived right, a real change from the political orthodoxy that has alienated much of the electorate. That could make politics exciting again.  At a time when popular discontent with “the system” is rising, it has been suggested (by Elizabeth Lévy’s maverick monthly Le Causeur) that the anti-system Mélenchon might actually have the best chance of winning working class votes away from the anti-system LePen.

Manufacturing Consent

But the pro-European Union, pro-NATO, neoliberal Establishment is at work to keep that from happening.  On every possible magazine cover or talk show, the media have shown their allegiance to a “New! Improved!” middle of the road candidate who is being sold to the public like a consumer product.   At his rallies, carefully coached young volunteers situated in view of the cameras greet his every vague generalization with wild cheers, waving flags, and chanting “Macron President!!!” before going off to the discotèque party offered as their reward. Macron is the closest thing to a robot ever presented as a serious candidate for President.  That is, he is an artificial creation designed by experts for a particular task.

Emmanuel Macron, 39, was a successful investment banker who earned millions working for the Rothschild bank.   Ten years ago, in 2007, age 29, the clever young economist was invited into the big time by Jacques Attali, an immensely influential guru, whose advice since the 1980s has been central in wedding the Socialist Party to pro-capitalist, neoliberal globalism.  Attali incorporated him into his private think tank, the Commission for Stimulating Economic Growth, which helped draft the  “300 Proposals to Change France” presented to President Sarkozy a year later as a blueprint for government.  Sarkozy failed to enact them all, for fear of labor revolts, but the supposedly “left” Socialists are able to get away with more drastic anti-labor measures, thanks to their softer discourse.

The soft discourse was illustrated by presidential candidate François Hollande in 2012 when he aroused enthusiasm by declaring to a rally: “My real enemy is the world of finance!”.  The left cheered and voted for him.  Meanwhile, as a precaution, Hollande secretly dispatched Macron to London to reassure the City’s financial elite that it was all just electoral talk.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/10/emmanuel-macron-france-president After his election, Hollande brought Macron onto his staff. From there he was given a newly created super-modern sounding government post as minister of Economy, Industry and Digital affairs in 2014.  With all the bland charm of a department store mannequin, Macron upstaged his irascible colleague, prime minister Manuel Valls, in the silent rivalry to succeed their boss, President Hollande.  Macron won the affection of big business by making his anti-labor reforms look young and clean and “progressive”. In fact, he pretty much followed the Attali agenda.

The theme is “competitiveness”.  In a globalized world, a country must attract investment capital in order to compete, and for that it is necessary to lower labor costs.  A classic way to do that is to encourage immigration.  With the rise of identity politics, the left is better than the right in justifying massive immigration on moral grounds, as a humanitarian measure.  That is one reason that the Democratic Party in the United States and the Socialist Party in France have become the political partners of neoliberal globalism.  Together, they have changed the outlook of the official left from structural measures promoting economic equality to moral measures promoting equality of minorities with the majority.

Just last year, Macron founded (or had founded for him) his political movement entitled “En marche!” (Let’s go!) characterized by meetings with young groupies wearing Macron t-shirts.  In three months he felt the call to lead the nation and announced his candidacy for President.

Many personalities are jumping the marooned Socialist ship and going over to Macron, whose strong political resemblance to Hillary Clinton suggests that his is the way to create a French Democratic Party on the U.S. model.  Hillary may have lost but she remains the NATOland favorite. And indeed, U.S. media coverage confirms this notion.  A glance at the ecstatic puff piece by Robert Zaretsky in Foreign Policy magazine hailing “the English-speaking, German-loving, French politician Europe has been waiting for” leaves no doubt that Macron is the darling of the trans-Atlantic globalizing elite.

At this moment, Macron is second only to Marine LePen in the polls, which also show him defeating her by a landslide in the final round.  However, his carefully manufactured appeal is vulnerable to greater public information about his close ties to the economic elite.

Blame the Russians

For that eventuality, there is a preventive strike, imported directly from the United States.  It’s the fault of the Russians!

What have the Russians done that is so terrible?  Mainly, they have made it clear that they have a preference for friends rather than enemies as heads of foreign governments.  Nothing so extraordinary about that. Russian news media criticize, or interview people who criticize, candidates hostile to Moscow.  Nothing extraordinary about that either.

As an example of this shocking interference, which allegedly threatens to undermine the French Republic and Western values, the Russian news agency Sputnik interviewed a Republican member of the French parliament, Nicolas Dhuicq, who dared say that Macron might be “an agent of the American financial system”.   That is pretty obvious.  But the resulting outcry skipped over that detail to accuse Russian state media of “starting to circulate rumors that Macron had a gay extramarital affair” (The EU Observer, February 13, 2017).  In fact this alleged “sexual slur” had been circulating primarily in gay circles in Paris, for whom the scandal, if any, is not Macron’s alleged sexual orientation but the fact that he denies it.  The former mayor of Paris, Bertrand Delanoe, was openly gay, Marine Le Pen’s second in command Florian Philippot is gay, in France being gay is no big deal.

Macron is supported by a “very wealthy gay lobby”, Dhuicq is quoted as saying.  Everyone knows who that is: Pierre Bergé, the rich and influential business manager of Yves Saint Laurent, personification of radical chic, who strongly supports surrogate gestation, which is indeed a controversial issue in France, the real controversy underlying the failed opposition to gay marriage.

The Deep State rises to the surface

The amazing adoption in France of the American anti-Russian campaign is indicative of a titanic struggle for control of the narrative – the version of international reality consumed by the masses of people who have no means to undertake their own investigations. Control of the narrative is the critical core of what Washington describes as its “soft power”.  The hard power can wage wars and overthrow governments.  The soft power explains to bystanders why that was the right thing to do.  The United States can get away with literally everything so long as it can tell the story to its own advantage, without the risk of being credibly contradicted.  Concerning sensitive points in the world, whether Iraq, or Libya, or Ukraine, control of the narrative is basically exercised by the partnership between intelligence agencies and the media.  Intelligence services write the story, and the mass corporate media tell it.

Together, the anonymous sources of the “deep state” and the mass corporate media have become accustomed to controlling the narrative told to the public.  They don’t want to give that power up.  And they certainly don’t want to see it challenged by outsiders – notably by Russian media that tell a different story.

That is one reason for the extraordinary campaign going on to denounce Russian and other alternative media as sources of “false news”, in order to discredit rival sources.  The very existence of the Russian international television news channel RT aroused immediate hostility: how dare the Russians intrude on our version of reality!  How dare they have their own point of view! Hillary Clinton warned against RT when she was Secretary of State and her successor John Kerry denounced it as a “propaganda bullhorn”.  What we say is truth, what they say can only be propaganda.

The denunciation of Russian media and alleged Russian “interference in our elections” is a major invention of the Clinton campaign, which has gone on to infect public discourse in Western Europe.  This accusation is a very obvious example of double standards, or projection, since U.S. spying on everybody, including it allies, and interference in foreign elections are notorious.

The campaign denouncing “fake news” originating in Moscow is in full swing in both France and Germany as elections approach.  It is this accusation that is the functional interference in the campaign, not Russian media.  The accusation that Marine Le Pen is “the candidate of Moscow” is not only meant to work against her, but is also preparation for the efforts to instigate some variety of “color revolution” should she happen to win the May 7 election. CIA interference in foreign elections is far from limited to contentious news reports.

In the absence of any genuine Russian threat to Europe, claims that Russian media are “interfering in our democracy” serve to brand Russia as an aggressive enemy and thereby justify the huge NATO military buildup in Northeastern Europe, which is reviving German militarism and directing national wealth into the arms industry.

In some ways, the French election is an extension of the American one, where the deep state lost its preferred candidate, but not its power.  The same forces are at work here, backing Macron as the French Hillary, but ready to stigmatize any opponent as a tool of Moscow.

What has been happening over the past months has confirmed the existence of a Deep State that is not only national but trans-Atlantic, aspiring to be global. The anti-Russian campaign is a revelation.  It reveals to many people that there really is a Deep State, a trans-Atlantic orchestra that plays the same tune without any visible conductor. The term “Deep State” is suddenly popping up even in mainstream discourse, as a reality than cannot be denied, even if it is hard to define precisely.

Instead of the Military Industrial Complex, we should perhaps call it the Military Industrial Media Intelligence Complex, or MIMIC.  Its power is enormous, but acknowledging that it exists is the first step toward working to free ourselves from its grip.

 

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What the House did today should shock the conscience of every animal lover in America.

Mother bears hibernating with their cubs and wolves raising pups in their dens may no longer be protected from a hunter’s rifle.

The lives of countless bear and wolf families are hanging in the balance today because the U.S. House of Representatives just voted to overturn a ban on cruel hunting tactics that previously protected animals on some of the most treasured wildlife refuges in America.

Grizzly bear family in Alaska

Grizzly bear family in AlaskaShutterstock

On 76 million acres of federal refuges in Alaska, hunters will be permitted to enter dens where vulnerable bear families are hibernating and kill them if the resolution becomes law. They will also be able to shoot entire wolf families raising young pups if the Senate and President agree with the vote.

“What the House did today should shock the conscience of every animal lover in America,” Wayne Pacelle, president and CEO of The Humane Society of the United States (HSUS), said on Thursday. “If the Senate and President concur, we’ll see wolf families killed in their dens, bears chased down by planes or suffering for hours in barbaric steel-jawed traps or snares.”

The overturning of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) ban would also allow hunters to lure animals with food and shoot them at point-blank range.

 

Wolf pups playing near their denShutterstock

Even people in favor of hunting applauded the ban when it was issued. “Inhumane hunting methods have caused the overkilling of native Alaskan predators; this rule takes a balanced approach allowing for traditional, permit-based hunting,” then-Representative Mike Fitzpatrick (R-PA) said last year after the cruel practices were banned.

 

Grizzly by den

Grizzly bear by a denShutterstock

 

Now it’s unclear why the push to overturn the ban was introduced in the first place, as a 2016 poll of Alaska voters showed that most agreed that those practices should be banned. Alaska’s Representative Don Young (R-AK), who has trapped animals in the past, introduced the measure, known as H.J. Resolution 69, anyway.

Congress voted 225 to 193 in favor of it on Thursday, some citing states’ rights as the reason for their vote in favor, despite the resolution being about federal lands.

Wolf pup by den

Wolf pup emerging from denShutterstock

 

“Special interest groups are quietly working at the federal and state level to lay the groundwork for federally managed lands to be handed over wholesale to state or even private ownership,” Dan Ashe, then-FWS director, wrote last year in an op-ed. “Unfortunately, without the protections of federal law and the public engagement it ensures, this heritage is incredibly vulnerable.”

 

Wolf pup watched over by mom

Shutterstock

The Dodo asked Rep. Young for a comment as to why he would push to allow these practices when so many voters oppose them. His office did not immediately respond.

There’s still time to save wolves and bears from cruelty: Contact your senators and ask them to vote against this resolution.

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The road to decommissioning Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant’s No. 2 reactor could be rockier than expected, as radiation levels on Feb. 9 were even deadlier than those recorded in late January.

Tokyo Electric Power Co. announced that day that radiation levels inside the reactor were estimated at up to 650 sieverts per hour, much higher than the record 530 sieverts per hour marked by the previous survey.

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A camera attached to the robot deployed inside Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant’s No. 2 reactor shows how it clears its path covered with debris and deposits using a pressure washer. (Captured from video provided by Tokyo Electric Power Co.)

A camera made its way inside the reactor’s containment vessel for the first time on Jan. 30 and spotted fuel rods that had melted into black lumps in the nuclear accident in the aftermath of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami disaster.

The plant operator made the latest estimate from the amount of camera noise experienced by the robot that ventured into the lion’s den that morning.


A pressure washer-equipped robot clears the path inside the containment vessel of Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant’s No. 2 reactor on Feb. 9. The black lumps are believed to be melted fuel. (Provided by Tokyo Electric Power Co.)

Equipped with a pressure washer, the machine was deployed to pave the way for the Sasori (scorpion) robot that is set to survey the reactor’s interior in greater detail.

The robot’s task was to hose down melted fuel and other substances as it traveled along a rail measuring 7 meters long and 0.6 meter wide connecting the outer wall of the containment vessel with the reactor’s core. It started operating from a point located 2 meters from the exit of the tunnel bored into the side of the vessel.

But about two hours into its journey, in which it had progressed about a meter, the camera footage started getting dark, TEPCO said. The amount of radiation emitted by the melted fuel may have taken a toll on the camera’s well-being.

As the robot could be left stranded inside the vessel if the camera broke down completely, the utility called off the operation seven hours earlier than scheduled and retrieved the device.

TEPCO analyzed the footage and concluded that the doses amounted to about 650 sieverts per hour, which is deadly enough to kill a human in less than a minute.

As the robot’s camera was designed to withstand a cumulative dosage of 1,000 sieverts per hour, the utility commented that “it’s consistent with how the camera started to break down after two hours.”

The plant operator plans to deploy the Sasori surveyor robot before the end of February.

“We will be assessing the amount of deposits and debris to decide how far Sasori can advance,” a TEPCO official said.

http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201702100035.html

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Ecuador – Puertas giratorias

February 19th, 2017 by Florencia Saintout

Este domingo dentro de una parte de la mitad del mundo, allí donde la poeta Fernanda Espinoza escribió “en la selva, la luna es más grande y más tibia, un círculo de cera con penacho de luciérnaga”, se va a elegir presidente, vicepresidente y asambleístas. Y se va a elegir algo más: si los ecuatorianos aceptan o no que los funcionarios públicos puedan tener bienes en paraísos fiscales. Pregunta necesaria en un contexto mundial de ominosa existencia de capital financiero sin límite. 

Junto a las  abigarradas singularidades de la región, en la que cada país tiene sus realidades nacionales propias, hay una pregunta que se hace común: ¿quiénes gobernarán nuestros destinos? ¿Lo hará la política -imperfecta, abierta, hecha de hombres y mujeres de corazón y hueso- o lo hará el capital que no tiene bandera, ni convicciones, ni frío, ni hambre, solamente intereses?

Las elecciones presidenciales del 19 de febrero en Ecuador no van a pasar inadvertidas para la región, tengan el resultado que tengan. Si gana el candidato de Alianza PAIS, Lenin Moreno, confirmará la hipótesis de que la historia nunca va en una sola dirección como un ren iracundo o ciego, y reforzará esperanzas allí donde este último tiempo de gobiernos antipopulares han puesto consternación. Si gana el candidato de la derecha, el banquero que jugó un papel fundamental en la crisis de 1999, aumentará la desigualdad y desaparecerán derechos tal cual ha sucedido en Argentina desde el triunfo de Mauricio Macri.

El presidente Rafael Correa denunció una campaña sucia. Ve atrás de ella el mismo poder que ha sostenido otras campañas sucias recientes: medios de comunicación que no son solamente medios y que nada tienen de neutrales. Sistemas enlazados internacionalmente. Solo para verlo en Ecuador: hasta la reforma constitucional ecuatoriana de 2008, 118 banqueros estaban vinculados a 201 medios de comunicación, por lo que la comunidad de intereses entre el poder financiero y el mediático se hace extrema en este país y no queda en sus fronteras.

Para interrumpir prematuramente a los gobiernos democráticos de América Latina, las derechas desplegaron en las últimas décadas los llamados golpes blandos o guerras de baja intensidad. Las estrategias fueron múltiples e incluyeron lockouts patronales, corridas cambiarias, entre otras. El objetivo: el desgaste. Pero cuando los gobiernos populares pudieron sortear las crisis económicas e incluso crecer muy a pesar de las oligarquías locales, la estrategia de ataque en tiempos electorales se centró básicamente en las  campañas de desprestigio, a través de cierto periodismo, de los proyectos y sus candidatos. Éstas han ido complejizando sus tramas que nada tienen ya que ver con el periodismo, al punto de que se autodefinen como “periodismo de guerra” en tiempos de paz: crean crisis; crean guerras.

Las campañas de desprestigio se replican de manera metódica –han construido métodos, siguen recetarios– a lo largo y a lo ancho del Cono Sur y las formas de dañar la imagen del referente político son múltiples. A la cabeza, están  las denuncias de corrupción. Es necesario hacer énfasis en la palabra “denuncias” en tanto la presentación de pruebas en la mayoría de los casos ha sido prácticamente nula.

Brasil ha sido testigo del peor de los desenlaces, un golpe institucional ejecutado por el tridente medios de comunicación/corporación financiera/poder judicial que a su vez  opera hoy en la Argentina para la persecución al kirchnerismo. Hace unos días, el ex presidente Lula da Silva despidió a su compañera de vida y compartió que Marisa Rocco murió triste, víctima de la injusticia de los canallas.

El sábado pasado una orquesta similar sesionó en Ecuador. El mismo tridente ha tratado de usar casos de corrupción en Petroecuador denunciados por el gobierno para desinformar y confundir a la población, tomando como voz autorizada a los prófugos de la justicia, receta muy conocida por los argentinos.

Dos canales de televisión –Ecuavisa y Teleamazonas– y el periódico Expreso se trasladaron a Miami a entrevistar al ex ministro de Hicrocarburos Carlos Pareja Yanuzelli, “Capaya”, prófugo de la Justicia ecuatoriana que lo investiga por enriquecimiento ilícito, tráfico de influencias y peculado.

El acusado involucró al candidato Jorge Gras, candidato a vicepresidente de Alianza País, en el caso de corrupción por el cual es buscado por la justicia. Como denunció Rafael Correa, “los entrevistadores le preguntan de todo… ¡menos por el dinero que robó! (…) Esta farsa pone en evidencia cómo se forjan los engaños destinados a sorprender a la opinión pública encubriendo a los involucrados en actos de corrupción”. Para ensuciar a otro hay que limpiar al testigo y dejarlo como un patriota, un perseguido político que teme por su vida.

En otra escena, el prófugo se somete a una prueba de polígrafo llevada a cabo por un presentador de Sábado Gigante, un programa de entretenimientos de Miami. El gobierno ecuatoriano mostró pruebas de que pocos días antes de que las entrevistas vieran la luz, Capaya se reunió con otros dos prófugos, los banqueros William y Roberto Isaías, quienes habrían financiado la operación. ¿Quiénes son los hermanos Isaías? Los dueños de un imperio económico que incluía TC Televisión, GamaTV, Cablevisión y el banco Filanbanco, cuya quiebra influyó en la crisis bancaria de 1999. Al año siguiente, cuando inició el proceso judicial que los involucraba por malversación de fondos públicos y de los clientes del banco, huyeron a EE.UU, donde adquirieron acciones de otros medios de comunicación como  CNN Latino y MIA TV.

También en bancos y medios invertía el empresario Fidel Egas, dueño del banco Pichincha y –hasta 2010– también del canal Teleamazonas. Aunque, según un fallo de primera instancia de mayo pasado, esta venta fue nula, en tanto Egas habría dado crédito a sus empleados condicionados a que si renunciaban tenían que devolver las acciones.

La cadena de televisión abierta Ecuavisa del empresario Xavier Alvarado Roca, socio del Grupo Pérez –propietarios de El Universo– en el sistema de televisión pago Univisa, también entrevistó al prófugo Capaya. Y por último, asistieron a la cita en Miami periodistas del Diario Expreso, cuyo dueño es Galo Martínez Merchán, ministro de gobierno antes y durante la dictadura de su amigo Velasco Ibarra, donde desaparecieron y asesinaron a varios dirigentes estudiantiles.

El entramado está lleno de nudos y el lector puede perderse en tanto nombre. Lo que sin duda no dejará de ver son las puertas giratorias entre negocios y periodismo, lo que hace muy difícil pensar que allí se juegue algo del orden de la verdad.

Florencia Saintout

Florencia Saintout: Decana de la Facultad de Periodismo y Comunicación Social de la UNLP.

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Since 2001, when then US President George Bush announced his “War on Terror,” presidents and politicians both in the United States and among America’s allies, have repeated this phrase and have done their utmost to convince the public that indeed, the West was fighting a “War on Terror.”

Yet there is something disturbingly ambiguous about what exactly the “War on Terror” consists of, who it’s being waged against and how it could ever possibly be brought to a successful conclusion.

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It is also often referred to as the “Long War,” and for good reason. America’s ongoing occupation of Afghanistan is the longest armed conflict in US history. Additionally, US troops still find themselves in Iraq, some 14 years after the initial invasion and occupation of the state in 2003.

Because of the ambiguous nature of the “War on Terror,” politicians have been given much room to maneuver their rhetoric, explaining why more wars must be waged, more liberties curtailed at home and more wealth and power channeled into fewer and fewer hands.

What’s Really Behind Terrorism? 

The fanatics, weapons, supplies, vehicles and finances that grease the wheels of global terror do not merely spring forth from the pages of the Qu’ran, as bigots across the West insist.

Just like any national army, the army raised and wielded in the name of terrorism has several basic components. Examining these components reveals a very uncomfortable but somewhat poorly hidden truth.

In reality, fanatics must be indoctrinated. And they are, in Saudi-funded madrassas and mosque networks wrapping around the globe. In the United States and across Europe, these madrassas and mosques often serve as both indoctrination centers and recruiting stations. They operate as such with the explicit knowledge, even cooperation of US and European security and intelligence agencies.

One such center can be found in Denmark at Grimhøjvej Mosque in Aarhus which openly serves as a recruiting station for militants meant to fight abroad in US-European backed wars in Libya, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. The government of Denmark openly collaborates with the mosque to integrate these individuals back into Danish society when they return.

The mosque in Aarhus is hardly an isolated example. Such mosques backed and protected by US-European-Saudi money and political influence dot the globe, feeding recruits into a global mercenary army carrying out proxy war and staging terrorist attacks whenever and wherever politically convenient.

Both Wikileaks and even the US’ own Defense Intelligence Agency have released documents exposing the role  both the West and Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar have played in the arming and funding of actual militants once they reach the battlefield.

Additionally, militants that have been indoctrinated, trained, armed, funded and battle-hardened by Western and Gulf sponsorship, return back to their respective nations where they are then cultivated for domestic operations. Terror attacks like those in Paris and BrusselsBerlin and elsewhere are carried out almost exclusively by militants US-European security and intelligence agencies have known about and even arrested but inexplicably released, allowing them to carry out their attacks.

What a Real War on Terrorism Requires

It is often said that states like Russia, Syria and Iran exist as natural allies to the United States and Europe in the fight against terrorism. And that would be true if not for the fact that said terrorism is actually a deliberate product of US-European foreign policy. Were the West to truly wage a war on terrorism, it would already be deeply cooperating with these  nations on the front line against groups like Al Qaeda and the self-proclaimed Islamic State.

However, terrorism is waged as a means of fighting the West’s proxy wars abroad, and to create divisive, paralyzing hatred, fear and hysteria at home.

Travel bans are created to intentionally stoke controversy and distract the public from the aforementioned reality driving  terrorism. As is evident in virtually all terror attacks carried out across the West, suspects are already known to security and intelligence agencies beforehand. These agencies simply need to stop them. Instead, they allow the attacks to take place, granting their respective governments political capital to channel more power into centralized hands.

While the US and Europe use terrorism as a function of foreign policy, they could not do it without their intermediaries in the Persian Gulf. Without the Saudis and Qataris serving as “handlers” for the West’s terrorist legions, it is unlikely such legions could be raised to begin with.

Targeting, rather than embracing, even protecting these state sponsors of all aspects of terrorism, from indoctrination and recruitment, to training, arming and financing terrorism on the battlefield, would be another essential step in a real “War on Terror.”

Yet from President Bush to President Obama and now during the administration of US President Donald Trump, the US and its European allies continue to coddle the regimes in Riyadh and Doha, rather than taking any measures whatsoever to disrupt this terror pipeline.

While the US remains in Afghanistan allegedly to “fight terrorism,” it refuses to take even the most basic steps to dismantle the ideological, political and financial structures in the Persian Gulf fueling that terrorism.

A final means of combating and defeating “terrorism” would be to educate the public of just how small a minority is actually involved in it, isolating those groups exploiting and perverting ideologies from the vast majority who practice these ideologies constructively.

Instead, US and European demagogues work ceaselessly to lump all of Islam into the “terror” basket, creating tension and hostility on both sides of an essentially manufactured strategy of tension. Instead of draining emotional and political resources from those seeking to recruit disillusioned individuals, the West is ensuring them an endless supply.

A real “War on Terror” is clearly not being waged. Nothing presented by President Trump before or after his campaign victory in 2016 indicates a real war is about to be waged. In fact, much of what has been done thus far, has simply been the placing of additional bricks on a very predictable path toward the infinite horizon of this “Long War.”

Ulson Gunnar, a New York-based geopolitical analyst and writer especially for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

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La semana que concluye hoy marcó un punto de inflexión en Guatemala, donde las contradicciones entre los distintos sectores sociales llegaron a extremos y dejaron en claro la polarización frente a problemas esenciales del país.

La discusión legislativa en torno a las reformas constitucionales al sector justicia, y en particular respecto al artículo 3 del proyecto que pretende modificar el 203 de la carta magna vigente, confirmó una verdad harto conocida: el racismo y la discriminación siguen vivos en esta nación, donde conviven 23 pueblos originarios.

El rechazo a reconocer el pluralismo jurídico y a las autoridades indígenas ancestrales como sujetos de derecho para impartir justicia en sus territorios motivó los debates más enconados durante cinco horas en el Congreso y hasta redundó en el abandono de la sala del plenario por decenas de diputados.

Previo a ello los representantes legales de los pueblos originarios tuvieron que esperar una contraorden para poder ingresar a la sede parlamentaria, tras ser cateados cual posibles criminales.

Mientras, empresarios, ciertos consultores y prensa reiteran prejuicios e insisten en que el análisis sobre el derecho de estas naciones no está agotado y acusan de injerencia a la Comisión Internacional Contra la Impunidad (Cicig).

El ente, establecido por la Organización de Naciones Unidas en Guatemala en 2007 y ahora bajo la dirección del abogado colombiano Iván Velásquez, es el principal artífice del azote contra la corrupción desatado hace dos años.

Asimismo se le atribuye el proceso de institucionalización progresiva del Ministerio Público, que con este respaldo logró fortalecer su credibilidad.

Ello no escapa de la ciudadanía, que reiteró su apoyo a la Cicig y a Velásquez, como antes cuestionó el mantenimiento de la figura del antejuicio, pese a su inclusión en el plan de cambios constitucionales, debatido en primera vuelta en el legislativo a finales de 2016 y ahora entrampado hasta un nuevo análisis.

Tampoco son muchos los convencidos de que los choques de esta semana en el parlamento unicameral sean fortuitos, y menos los repuntes de la violencia en ese ámbito, que dejó una decena de muertos.

El Día de San Valentín de 2017 será recordado con dolor en Guatemala, donde ocurrieron cinco ataques armados en esta capital y en el municipio metropolitano de Mixco, con cinco taxistas muertos.

Pero, además, será inolvidable para familiares y amigos de Carlos Daniel y Ã’scar Armando, de 10 y 11 años de edad, respectivamente, quienes fueron secuestrados cuando iban para la escuela y luego aparecieron hecho cadáveres en dos costales, atados de pies y manos.

El entierro de los dos niños el 14 de febrero devino movilización popular en los Ajuixes, comunidad rural de San Juan Sacatepéquez, en el departamento de Guatemala, en tanto organismos internacionales denunciaron ante el mundo el grado de vulnerabilidad que acecha a la infancia en este país centroamericano. En Guatemala ‘la violencia alcanza niveles inaceptables. Cada día mueren dos niños y niñas en promedio a causa de la violencia, 40 quedan huérfanos de alguno de sus padres, nacen seis bebés de niñas menores de 14 años producto de una violación’, alertó el Fondo de las Naciones Unidas para la Infancia.

Mas la violencia incide igual sobre quienes disienten del orden establecido bajo los cánones del esquema neoliberal, y prueba de ello fue el apresamiento del promotor social maya q´quechi´ Abelino Chub Caal, por su acompañamiento a comunidades cercanas al Lago Izabal y al Río Polochic, en la zona nororiental.

Como suele ocurrir en esos casos, los medios de prensa no se dieron por enterados de la captura del defensor de los derechos humanos, divulgada por el empeño de organizaciones civiles en denunciarla a través de las redes sociales.

Frente a ese panorama y el anuncio de la probable salida de prisión preventiva del hijo mayor y del hermano del presidente de Guatemala, Jimmy Morales, acusados de fraude, casi movió a risa a muchas personas escuchar al mandatario asegurar que le habían llegado rumores de un posible golpe de Estado.

Ello, después de que su vicepresidente Jafeth Cabrera dijera que el aumento de la violencia responde a un intento de desestabilizar al Gobierno, en una Guatemala que reclama mayor efectividad de las autoridades elegidas en una segunda vuelta, tras la ola de protestas anticorrupción en 2015.

Prensa Latina

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U.S. national security officials are reportedly ready to “go nuclear” after President Donald Trump’s latest attack on the intelligence community.

In a series of tweets on Tuesday and Wednesday, Trump insisted that the “real scandal” was not that former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn lied about his contact with Russia. Instead, the president blasted what he said were “un-American” leaks that led to Flynn’s ousting.

On Wednesday, former NSA intelligence analyst John Schindler provided some insight into the reaction of national security officials.

“Now we go nuclear,” he wrote on Twitter. “[Intelligence community] war going to new levels. Just got an senior [intelligence community] friend, it began: ‘He will die in jail.’”

“US intelligence is not the problem here,” Schindler added in another tweet. “The President’s collusion with Russian intelligence is. Many details, but the essence is simple.”

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U.S.-North Korean Relations in a Time of Change

February 19th, 2017 by Gregory Elich

The months ahead may reveal the direction that U.S.-North Korean relations will take under the Trump administration. After eight years of ‘strategic patience’ and the Rebalance to Asia, those relations now stand at their lowest point in decades. Many foreign policy elites are expressing frustration over Washington’s failure to impose its will on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), more commonly known as North Korea. There are increasing calls for a change in policy, but what kind of change do they have in mind? We may be at the point of a major transition.

President Trump has given mixed signals on North Korea, ranging from saying he is open to dialogue, to insisting that North Korea cannot be allowed to possess nuclear weapons and that he could solve the dispute with a single call to China. It is fair to say that any change in policy direction is possible, although deeply entrenched interests can be counted on to resist any positive movement.

Other than his frequently expressed hard line on China, Trump has not otherwise demonstrated much interest in Asian-Pacific affairs. That may mean an increased likelihood that he will defer to his advisors, and conventional wisdom may prevail. The more influence Trump’s advisors have on North Korea policy, the more dangerous the prospects.

CIA Director Mike Pompeo believes that Iran and North Korea cooperate in what he calls “an evil partnership.” [1] He has also called for the mobilization of economic and military powers against the DPRK. [2]

Establishment think tanks have churned out a number of policy papers, filled with recommendations for the new administration. Their advice is likely to fall on receptive ears among Trump’s advisors. How much influence they will have on Trump’s decision-making is another question, but he is hearing a single message from those around him and from the Washington establishment.

A common theme running through these think tank policy papers is the demand to punish China for its relations with the DPRK.

Here’s an overview of what the major think tanks and U.S. military officers propose for how Trump should handle North Korea:

U.S.-Korea Institute

The most moderate set of proposals offered the Trump administration is the one produced by Joel Wit for the U.S.-Korea Institute, in that it at least calls for an initial stage that Wit terms “phased coercive diplomacy.” Initial diplomatic contacts would “explore whether agreements that serve U.S. interests are possible while at the same time” the U.S. would lay the groundwork for “increasing pressure” on North Korea. A modest scaling back of the annual U.S. war games could be offered as an incentive to North Korea, along with negotiations on a peace treaty, as long as the U.S. feels it can gain more from North Korean concessions.

At the same time, Wit calls for the new administration to “communicate toughness” and implement a “long-term deterrence campaign.” This would include the rotation of B-1 and B-52 bombers into South Korea on a regular basis, along with stationing nuclear weapons-armed submarines off the Korean coast.

While negotiations are underway, Wit wants the U.S. to direct a propaganda war against the DPRK, by increasing radio broadcasts and infiltrating portable storage devices containing information designed to destabilize the government. What he does not say is that such hostile measures can only have the effect of derailing diplomacy.

If North Korea proves less than compliant to U.S. demands, or if it prepares to test an ICBM, then Wit advises Washington to impose a total “energy and non-food embargo” on North Korea. Wit argues that China must accede to U.S. demands in the UN Security Council for what amounts to economic warfare on North Korea, or else the United States should impose “crippling sanctions” on the DPRK and secondary sanctions on China. By attacking the Chinese economy in this manner, Wit says this would send a message “that the United States would be prepared to face a serious crisis with China over North Korean behavior.” The arrogance is stunning. If China does not agree to American demands in the United Nations, then it is to be punished through U.S. sanctions. [3]

This is what passes as the “moderate” approach among Washington’s foreign policy establishment.

American Enterprise Institute

Wit is not alone in his eagerness to punish China. Nicholas Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute believes that “the next round of penalties will probably have to be ones which have some sort of collateral fallout for China…Sanctions are fine, more sanctions are better,” he says. “Increasing the cost for China, I think, is the way to go.” [4]

Eberstadt argues that U.S. North Korea policy should “consist mainly, though not entirely, of military measures.” “It is time for Beijing to pay a penalty for all its support” for North Korea, he declares. “We can begin by exacting it in diplomatic venues all around the world.” [5] Displaying the presumption all too typical of Washington elites, he has nothing to say about how China might react to his hostile policy prescriptions. The assumption is that China should just take the punishment without complaint. That will not happen.

U.S. Navy Commander Skip Vincenzo

U.S. Navy Commander ‘Skip’ Vincenzo prepared a set of recommendations that proved so popular that it was jointly published by four think tanks. Vincenzo is looking ahead and planning for how the United States and South Korea could attack the DPRK without suffering great losses. He urges the Trump administration to conduct an information war to undermine North Korea from within. The aim would be “convincing regime elites that their best options” in a conflict “would be to support ROK-U.S. alliance efforts.” He adds that “easily understood themes such as ‘stay in your garrisons and you will get paid’ should target the military rank and file.” North Korean military commanders should be told they would be “financially rewarded” for avoiding combat. “The objective is to get them to act independently when the time comes with the expectation that they will benefit later.” [6]

Interesting phrase, ‘when the time comes.’ Vincenzo anticipates that military intervention in North Korea is only a matter of time. He clearly envisions a scenario like the U.S. invasion of Iraq, when many Iraqi units melted away rather than fight. The fantasy that the U.S. could repeat the Iraqi experience in the DPRK is based on a misjudgment of the Korean national character. Nor does it take into account that what followed the invasion of Iraq could hardly be construed as a peaceful development.

Brookings Institute

The Brookings Institute, despite its centrist reputation, encourages Trump to take actions that are savage and reckless. “The new president,” the Institute says, “should adopt an approach that focuses on North Korea’s main goal: regime survival…The United States and its allies and partners should make North Korea choose between nuclear weapons and survival.”

The Brookings Institute calls for all-out economic warfare on the North Korean people. “A more robust approach,” it advises, “should go after “the financial lifeblood of the North Korean regime in new ways: starving the regime of foreign currency, cutting Pyongyang off from the international financial and trading system, squeezing its trading networks, interdicting its commerce, and using covert and overt means to take advantage of the regime’s many vulnerabilities. A strong foundation of military measures must underline this approach.”

In a major understatement, the Institute admits that “such an approach carries risks.” Indeed it does, and it is the Korean people who would bear that cost, while Washington’s elites would face none of the consequences of their actions. What the Brookings Institute is calling for is the economic strangulation of North Korea, which would bring about the collapse of people’s livelihoods and mass starvation.

Like other think tanks, the Brookings Institute advocates targeting China, calling for the imposition of secondary sanctions on “Chinese firms, banks, and state-owned enterprises” that do business with North Korea. [7] The aim would be to cut North Korea off from all trade with China.

Former USFK Commander Walter Sharp

Walter Sharp, a former commander of U.S. Forces Korea, says that the United States should launch a preemptive strike if North Korea prepares to launch a satellite or test a ballistic missile. “The missile should be destroyed,” he declares. It is easy to imagine the violent response by the United States, were a foreign nation to attack one of its missiles on the launch pad. It is delusional to expect that North Korea not only wouldn’t respond in some manner but would have no right to do so. But Sharp advocates “overwhelming force” if North Korea retaliates, because, as he puts it, Kim Jong-un should know “that there is a lot more coming his way, something he will fear.” [8] If this sounds like a prescription for war, that is because it is.

It is a measure of how decades of militarized foreign policy have degraded public discourse in this country to such an extent that these lunatic notions are not only taken seriously, but advocates are sought out for advice and treated with respect.

Council on Foreign Relations

It is not surprising that Walter Sharp was invited to join the task force that produced a set of recommendations on behalf of the Council on Foreign Relations. The task force calls for the early stages of negotiations to focus on a nuclear freeze, limitations on North Korean conventional forces and missile development, and inspection of nuclear facilities. Obligations on North Korea would be front-loaded, with absolutely nothing offered in return. The promise of a peace treaty and gradual normalization of relations would be back-loaded, contingent on full disarmament, an improvement on human rights, and allowing U.S. and South Korean media to saturate the DPRK. Certainly, that last demand would be a non-starter, as it is impossible to imagine that North Korea would agree to allow its media space to be dominated by hostile foreign entities.

Such a one-sided approach has no chance of achieving a diplomatic settlement. As a solution, the Council recommends that the United States continually escalate sanctions during the negotiating process.

The Council on Foreign Relations calls for the U.S., South Korea, and Japan to build up the capability to intercept North Korean missile launches, “whether they are declared to be ballistic missile tests or civil space launch vehicles.” If negotiations falter, it advises the three allies to shoot down North Korean missiles as they are soon as they are launched. That would be an act of war. And how does the Council on Foreign Relations imagine North Korea would respond to having a satellite launch shot down? It does not say.

Further development of North Korea’s nuclear program, the Council suggests, would require “more assertive diplomatic and military steps, including some that directly threaten the regime’s nuclear and missile programs and, therefore, the regime itself.”

“The United States should support enhanced information operations” against North Korea, the Council adds, to undermine the government and “strengthen emerging market forces.” Predictably enough, it advocates “severe economic pressure” on North Korea, as well as encouraging private companies to bring legal suits against nations and companies that do business with North Korea. [9]

It is not diplomacy that the Council on Foreign Relations seeks, but regime change, and its policy paper is filled with the language of the bully.

Rand Corporation

Bruce Bennett is a senior defense analyst at the Rand Corporation. He warns that North Korea’s desire for a peace treaty is a ruse. “In reality,” he says, “by insisting on a peace treaty, North Korea is probably not seeking peace, but war.” He goes on to claim that a peace treaty might lead to the withdrawal of U.S. forces, after which the North could be counted on to invade South Korea. Calls for a peace treaty, he adds, “should be regarded as nothing but a deceitful scam that could lead to the devastation of South Korea, a U.S. ally.” [10] This is an argument that other analysts also make, and is clearly delusional. But it serves as a good illustration of how in the blinkered mindset of Washington’s policy analysts, unsupported assertion takes the place of any sense of reality.

Center for a New American Security

The Center for a New American Security has planted deep roots in the U.S. establishment. Ashton Carter, secretary of defense in the Obama administration, expressed the level of respect and influence that CNAS holds in Washington. “For almost a decade now,” Carter said, “CNAS has been an engine for the ideas and talent that have shaped American foreign policy and defense policy.” Carter added that “in meeting after meeting, on issue after issue,” he worked with CNAS members. [11] His comments reveal that this is an organization that has constant access to the halls of power.

The Center for a New American Security has produced a set of policy documents intended to influence the Trump administration. Not surprisingly, it favors the Rebalance to Asia that was initiated by President Obama, and advocates a further expansion of U.S. military forces in Asia. [12] It also wants to see greater involvement by NATO in the Asia-Pacific in support of the U.S. military. [13]

Patrick Cronin is senior director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at CNAS, and as such, he wields considerable influence on U.S. policy. Cronin asserts that “Trump will want to enact harsh sanctions and undertake a serious crackdown” on North Korean financial operations, but these steps should be of secondary importance. Trump should “double down” on the U.S. military buildup in the region, he says, and alliance strategy should send the message to Kim Jong-un that nuclear weapons would threaten his survival. There it is again: the proposal to threaten North Korea’s survival if it does not abandon its nuclear program.

Regardless of diplomatic progress, Cronin believes the U.S. and its allies should conduct an information war against North Korea “at both elite and grassroots’ levels.” [14]

China is not to be ignored, and Cronin feels Trump will need to integrate “tougher diplomacy” with economic sanctions against China. [15]

It remains to be seen to what extent Trump will heed such advice. But the entire foreign policy establishment and mainstream media are united in staunch opposition to any genuinely diplomatic resolution of the dispute. Trump has expressed a healthy skepticism concerning CIA intelligence briefings. Whether that skepticism will be extended to the advice coming from Washington think tanks is an open question.

If the aim of these proposals is to bring about denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula, then they are recipes for failure. But if the intent is to impose economic hardship on the North Korean people, while capitalizing on the nuclear issue as a pretext to dominate the region, then these think tanks know what they are doing. As always, human considerations mean nothing when it comes to serving corporate and imperial interests, and if they fully have their way, it will be no surprise if they succeed in bringing to the Korean Peninsula the same chaos and destruction that they gave to the Middle East. One can only hope that more reasonable voices will prevail during policy formulation.

Political Change in South Korea: A Potential Game-changer

What none of the policy papers address is the role that South Korea has to play. It is simply assumed that the status quo will continue, and South Korea will go along with any action the U.S. chooses to take, no matter how harsh or dangerous. In the mind of the Washington establishment, this is a master-servant relationship and nothing more.

That Koreans, north and south, may have their own goals and interests is not considered. The truly astonishing mass protests against South Korean President Park Geun-hye, which led to her impeachment, have opened up a world of possibilities. Whatever happens in the months ahead, it won’t be business as usual. U.S. policymakers are in a panic at the prospect of a more progressive and independent-minded government taking power after the next election in South Korea, and this is what lies behind plans to rush the deployment of a THAAD battery ahead of schedule. But in a sense, it may already be too late. Park Geun-hye, and by implication her policies, have been thoroughly discredited. It may well be that the harsher the measures Washington wants to impose on the DPRK, the less it can count on cooperation from South Korea. And it could be this that prevents the United States from recklessly plunging the Korean Peninsula into chaos or even war.

Let us imagine a more progressive government taking power in South Korea, engaging in dialogue with its neighbor to the north and signing agreements on economic cooperation. Were the U.S. so inclined, it could work together with such a government in South Korea to reduce tensions and develop economic ties with the DPRK. Rail and gas links could cross North Korea, connecting the south with China and Russia, and provide an economic boost to the entire region. North and South Korea could shift resources from military to civilian needs and start to dismantle national security state structures. The nuclear issue would cease to matter. All of those things could be done, but it would take a change in mentality in Washington and a willingness to defy the entire establishment.

Alas, it is far more likely that tensions will continue to be ratcheted up. Longstanding confrontation with Russia and China has been the keynote of U.S. policy, leading to the encirclement of those nations by a ring of military bases and anti-ballistic missile systems. The Rebalance to Asia aims to reinforce military power around China. North Korea, in this context, serves as a convenient justification for the U.S. military and economic domination of the Asia-Pacific.

North Korea’s Nuclear Deterrent is Not a Threat to Global Peace

Why is North Korea’s nuclear weapons program regarded as an unacceptable threat, whereas those of other nations are not? Why do we not see the United States imposing sanctions on Pakistan for its nuclear program, or conducting war games in the Indian Ocean, practicing the invasion of India? Why do we not hear calls for regime change in Israel over its nuclear program?

Instead, Pakistan is the fifth largest recipient of U.S. aid, slated to receive $742 million this year. India receives one-tenth of that amount, and the United States recently signed an agreement with it on military cooperation. [16] As for Israel, the United States has pledged to provide it with $38 billion in military aid over the next ten years. [17]

What is it about its nuclear weapons program that causes North Korea to be sanctioned and threatened, whereas the U.S. warmly embraces the others? Pakistan, India, and Israel have nuclear programs that are far more advanced than North Korea’s, with sizeable arsenals and well-tested ballistic missiles. The other major difference is that North Korea is the only one of the four nations facing an existential threat from the United States, and therefore has the greatest need of a nuclear deterrent.

There is no threat of North Korea attacking the United States. It has yet to test a re-entry vehicle, and so cannot be said to have the means of delivering a nuclear weapon. Furthermore, the nation will never have more than a small arsenal relative to the size of that owned by the U.S., so its nuclear weapons can only play a deterrent role.

The “threat” that North Korea’s nuclear program presents is twofold. Once North Korea succeeds in completing development of its program, the United States will lose any realistic possibility of attacking it. Whether the U.S. would choose to exercise that capability or not, it wants to retain that option.

The other aspect of the “threat” is that if the DPRK succeeds in establishing an effective nuclear weapons program, other small nations facing U.S. hostility may feel emboldened to develop nuclear programs, thereby reducing the ability of the U.S. to impose its will on others.

It’s difficult to see why North Korea would ever give up its nuclear program. For one thing, according to U.S. State Department estimates, North Korea is spending anywhere from 15 to 24 percent of its GDP on the military. [18] This is unsustainable for an economy in recovery, and nuclear weapons are cheap in comparison to the expense of conventional armed forces. The DPRK is placing great emphasis on economic development, and a nuclear weapons program allows it to shift more resources to the civilian economy. [19]

Recent history has also shown that a small nation relying on conventional military forces has no chance of defending itself against attack by the United States. For a nation like North Korea, nuclear weapons present the only reliable means of defense.

Peace Treaty is Not a Guarantee of Peace

North Korea attaches great importance to the signing of a peace treaty. After more than six decades since the Korean War, a peace treaty is long overdue and a worthy goal. But if the DPRK imagines that a peace treaty would provide a measure of security, I think it is mistaken. The U.S. was officially at peace with each of the nations it attacked or undermined.

What kind of guarantees could the United States possibly give North Korea to ensure its security in exchange for disarmament? An agreement could be signed, and promises made, and mean nothing. Libya, it should be recalled, signed a nuclear disarmament agreement with one U.S. administration, only to be bombed by the next. No verbal or written promise could provide any measure of security.

The one-sided record of U.S. negotiators is hardly an encouragement for North Korea to disarm either.

For example, shortly after the United States signed the September 2005 Joint Agreement with North Korea, U.S. negotiator Christopher Hill sought to reassure Congress that the United States was not about to begin to normalize relations, even though that is precisely what the agreement obligated it to do.

Normalization of relations, he explained to Congress, would be “subject to resolution of our longstanding concerns. By this, I meant that as a necessary part of the process leading to normalization, we must discuss important issues, including human rights, biological and chemical weapons, ballistic missile programs, proliferation of conventional weapons, terrorism, and other illicit activities.” North Korea “would have to commit to international standards across the board, and then prove its intentions.” Christopher Hill’s point was clear. Even if North Korea were to denuclearize fully, relations would still not move toward normalization. North Korea would only be faced with a host of additional demands. [20]

Indeed, far from beginning to normalize relations, within days of the signing of the September 2005 agreement, the Treasury Department designated Macao-based Banco Delta Asia as a “primary money-laundering concern,” despite a lack of any evidence to back that claim. U.S. financial firms were ordered to sever relations with the bank, which led to a wave of withdrawals by panicked customers, and the bank’s closure. The aim of the Treasury Department was to shut off one of the key institutions North Korea used to conduct regular international trade. That action killed the agreement.

The Libyan Lesson

The Libyan nuclear agreement provides the model that Washington expects North Korea to follow. That agreement compelled Libya to dismantle its nuclear program as a precondition for receiving any rewards, and it was only after that process was complete that many of the sanctions on Libya were lifted. It took another two years to remove Libya from the list of sponsors of terrorism and restore diplomatic relations.

Upon closer examination, these ‘rewards’ look more like a reduction in punishment. Can it be said that a reduction in sanctions is a reward? If someone is beating you, and then promises to cut back on the number of beatings, is he rewarding you?

It did not seem so to the Libyans, who often complained that U.S. officials had not rewarded them for their compliance. [21]

What the U.S. did have to offer Libya, though, were more demands. Early on, Undersecretary of State John Bolton told Libyan officials that they had to halt military cooperation with Iran in order to complete the denuclearization agreement.[22] And on at least one occasion, a U.S. official pressured Libya to cut off military trade with North Korea, Iran, and Syria. [23]

American officials demanded that Libya recognize the unilateral independence of Kosovo, a position which Libya had consistently opposed. [24] This was followed by a U.S. diplomatic note to Libya, ordering it to vote against the Serbian government’s resolution at the United Nations, which asked for a ruling by the International Court of Justice on Kosovo independence. [25]

Under the circumstances, Libya preferred to absent itself from the vote, rather than join the United States and three other nations in opposing the measure.

The U.S. did succeed, however, in obtaining Libya’s vote for UN sanctions against Iran. [26] In response to U.S. directives, Libya repeatedly advised North Korea to follow its example and denuclearize. Under U.S. pressure, Libya also launched a privatization program and opened opportunities for U.S. businesses.

U.S. officials often urged the North Koreans to take note of the Libyan deal and learn from its example. These days, that example looks rather different, given the bombing of Libya by U.S. warplanes and missiles. Colonel Muammar Qaddafi was rewarded for his cooperation with the United States by being beaten, impaled on a bayonet, and shot several times. There is a lesson here, all right, and the North Koreans have taken due note of it.

The Real Threat to Peace

It is time to challenge the standard Western narrative.

Under international space law, every nation has the right to launch a satellite into orbit, yet North Korea alone is singled out for condemnation and denied that right. The United States, with over one thousand nuclear tests, [27] reacts with outrage to North Korea’s five.

To quote political analyst Tim Beal, “The construction of North Korea as an international pariah is an expression of American power rather than, as is usually claimed, a result of the infringement of international law. In fact, the discriminatory charges against North Korea are themselves a violation of the norms of international law and the equal sovereignty of states.” [28]

Since 1953, North Korea has never been at war.

During that same period, to list only a sampling of interventions, the U.S. overthrew the government of Guatemala, sent a proxy army to invade Cuba, and bombed and invaded Vietnam, at the cost of two million lives. It bombed Cambodia and Laos, sent troops into the Dominican Republic, backed a military coup in Indonesia, in which half a million people were killed, organized a military coup in Chile, backed Islamic extremists in their efforts to topple a secular government in Afghanistan. The U.S. invaded Grenada, mined harbors and armed anti-government forces in Nicaragua, armed right-wing guerrillas in Angola and Mozambique, armed and trained Croatian forces and supplied air cover as they expelled 200,000 people from their homes in Krajina, bombed half of Bosnia, armed and trained the Kosovo Liberation Army, attacked Yugoslavia, invaded Iraq, backed the overthrow of governments in Yugoslavia, Ukraine, Georgia, Honduras, and many other nations, bombed Libya, and armed and trained jihadists in Syria.

And yet, we are told that it is North Korea that is the threat to international peace.

2017 could be a pivotal year for the Korean Peninsula. An energized population is bringing change to South Korea. We should join them and demand change here in the United States, as well. It is time to resist continued calls for a reckless and militarized foreign policy.

Gregory Elich is on the Board of Directors of the Jasenovac Research Institute and the Advisory Board of the Korea Policy Institute. He a member of the Solidarity Committee for Democracy and Peace in Korea, a columnist for Voice of the People, and one of the co-authors of Killing Democracy: CIA and Pentagon Operations in the Post-Soviet Period, published in the Russian language. He is also a member of the Task Force to Stop THAAD in Korea and Militarism in Asia and the Pacific.

His website is https://gregoryelich.org

Notes

[1] Press Release, “Pompeo on North Korea’s Nuclear Test,” U.S. Congressman Mike Pompeo, January 16, 2016.

[2] Chang Jae-soon, “Trump’s Foreign Policy Lineup Expected to be Supportive of Alliance with Seoul, Tough on N.K.,” December 13, 2016.

[3] Joel S. Wit, “The Way Ahead: North Korea Policy Recommendations for the Trump Administration,” U.S.-Korea Institute at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), December 2016.

[4] FPI Conference Call: North Korea’s Dangerous Nuclear Escalation,” The Foreign Policy Initiative, September 15, 2016.

[5] Nicholas Eberstadt, “Wishful Thinking has Prevented Effective Threat Reduction in North Korea,” National Review, February 29, 2016.

[6] Commander Frederick ‘Skip’ Vincenzo, “An Information Based Strategy to Reduce North Korea’s Increasing Threat: Recommendations for ROK & U.S. Policy Makers,” Center for a New American Security, U.S.-Korea Institute, National Defense University, Georgetown University School of Foreign Service Center for Security Studies,” October 2016.

[7] Evans J.R. Revere, “Dealing with a Nuclear-Armed North Korea: Rising Danger, Narrowing Options, Hard Choices,” Brookings Institute, October 4, 2016.

[8] Richard Sisk, “Former US General Calls for Pre-emptive Strike on North Korea,” Defense Tech, December 1, 2016.

[9] Mike Mullen and Sam Nunn, chairs, and Adam Mount, project director, “A Sharper Choice on North Korea: Engaging China for a Stable Northeast Asia,” Independent Task Force Report No. 74, Council on Foreign Relations, 2016.

[10] Bruce W. Bennett, “Kim Jong-un is Trolling America Again,” The National Interest, May 17, 2016.

[11] Ashton Carter, “Networking Defense in the 21st Century”, Remarks at CNAS, Washington, DC, Defense.gov, June 20, 2016.

[12] Mira Rapp-Hooper, Patrick M. Cronin, Harry Krejsa, Hannah Suh, “Counterbalance: Red Teaming the Rebalance in the Asia-Pacific,” Center for a New American Security, November 2016.

[13] Julianne Smith, Erik Brattberg, and Rachel Rizzo, “Translatlantic Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific,” Center for a New American Security, October 2016.

[14] Patrick M. Cronin, “4 Ways Trump Can Avoid a North Korea Disaster,” The Diplomat, December 13, 2016.

[15] Patrick M. Cronin and Marcel Angliviel de la Beaumelle, “How the Next US President Should Handle the South China Sea,” The Diplomat. May 2, 2016.

[16] “Foreign Assistance in Pakistan,” foreignassistance.gov

Rama Lakshmi, “India and U.S. Deepen Defense Ties with Landmark Agreement,” Washington Post, August 30, 2016.

[17] “U.S. Foreign Aid to Israel,” everycrsreport.com, December 22, 2016.

[18] U.S. Department of State, “World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers 2016,” December 2016.

[19] Bradley O. Babson, “After the Party Congress: What to Make of North Korea’s Commitment to Economic Development?” 38 North, May 19, 2016.Elizabeth Shim, “Kim Jong Un’s Economic Plan Targets Foreign Investment,” UPI, May 19, 2015.

[20] “The Six-Party Talks and the North Korean Nuclear Issue: Old Wine in New Bottles?” Hearing Before the Committee on International Relations, House of Representatives, October 6, 2005.

[21] “Libya Nuclear Chronology,” Nuclear Threat Initiative, February 2011.

[22] U.S. Department of State cable, “U/S Bolton’s July 10 Meeting with Libyan Officials, August 11, 2004.

[23] William Tobey, “A Message from Tripoli, Part 4: How Libya Gave Up its WMD,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, December 7, 2014.

[24] U.S. Embassy Tripoli cable, “Libya/UNSC: 1267, Iran and Kosovo, July 1, 2008.

[25] U.S. Embassy Tripoli cable, “Kosovo ICJ Resolution at UNGA — Libya,” October 6, 2008.

[26] “Libya Nuclear Chronology,” Nuclear Threat Initiative, February 2011.

[27]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_the_United_States

[28] Tim Beal, “The Korean Peninsula within the Framework of US Global Hegemony,” The Asia-Pacific Journal, November 15, 2016.

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Trump’s new defense chief James Mattis hit the ground running, so to speak, and top on his agenda was meeting with his counterparts in South Korea and Japan. Just two weeks after being sworn in as Secretary of Defense, he was in South Korea, the initial stop on his first itinerary abroad, presumably to reassure the U.S.’ historical ally of the Pentagon’s continued commitment to the alliance between the two countries. 

What was unusual about this trip is that it broke with the now decade-long tradition of U.S. defense secretaries making the Middle East the destination of their first overseas trips. It also departs from the unspoken custom of U.S. dignitaries stopping in Tokyo before Seoul. What, then, prompted Mattis to rush to Seoul immediately after taking office?

Trump’s inauguration speech contained virtually no mention of his foreign policy goals and signaled a distinctly inward-looking and isolationist vision. “For many decades, we’ve enriched foreign industry at the expense of American industry; subsidized the armies of other countries, while allowing for the very sad depletion of our military. We’ve defended other nations’ borders while refusing to defend our own,” he said. “From this day forward, it’s going to be only America first, America first.”

North Korea: Trump’s First Foreign Policy Test in Asia

A scan of Trump’s cabinet leads one to believe U.S.’ foreign policy focus, if anything, will continue to be intervention in the Middle East and upping the ante in the so-called “war on terror.” Mattis commanded the Marines in the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq and is an outspoken critic of the U.S.’ nuclear deal with Iran. Trump’s first pick for national security advisor Mike Flynn was well known for his controversial views on Islam before he eventually resigned over his alleged Russian connections. And Trump expects, however inanely, his son-in-law Jared Kushner to “produce peace in the Middle East.”

As far as Asia is concerned, U.S.’ alliance with Japan, not South Korea, will likely be the anchor of Trump’s security policy in the region. Japan’s prime minister Shinzo Abe was the first foreign leader to meet Trump after his November election win and met him again this past weekend over a round of golf at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.

So why, again, did Mattis cross the Pacific in such a hurry to visit Seoul?

What Keeps them Up at Night

The clue may be found in the recent remarks of Robert Brown, the commander of U.S. Army Pacific, at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “The thing that keeps me up at night, the thing that worries me the most is North Korea,” he said on January 25 in a keynote address on the forecast for the Asian region in 2017.

State Secretary Rex Tillerson echoed this sentiment in a recent phone conversation with his South Korean counterpart Yun Byung-se. Referring to the North Korean nuclear program as an “immediate threat,” Tillerson reportedly said the issue will be foremost in his face-to-face talks with Yun in the near future.

From the outset of his administration, even before he’s had a chance to get his house in order, Trump is faced with a North Korea that has, for the past eight years while the previous U.S. administration refused to engage, been quietly sharpening its sword. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un warned in his new year address that his country is close to test-launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to the continental United States. And just one day before Trump took office, North Korea placed two missiles presumed to be ICBMs on mobile launchers in plain view of U.S. spy satellites.

Spooked, the Pentagon deployed its Sea-Based X-Band Radar out of Pearl Harbor 2,000 miles northwest of Hawaii to watch for a possible North Korean launch. This might also explain why, within minutes of Trump’s inauguration, the White House posted a policy position on its website announcing its intention to develop a “state of the art” missile defense system to protect against attacks from North Korea and Iran.

An incoming government official not given to following the U.S.-North Korean conflict may ask oneself, “How the heck did we get here?”

Byung-jin versus Strategic Patience

U.S.-North Korean relations during the previous Obama administration may be characterized as a contest between “byung-jin” versus strategic patience— strategic patience being the U.S.’ policy of waiting and preparing for the eventual collapse of the North Korean regime, and “byung-jin” being North Korea’s strategy of making parallel progress in economic development and its nuclear deterrence capability.

The United States has always maintained a certain level of tension on the Korean peninsula and painted North Korea as a belligerent pariah to justify U.S.’ strategic presence on the Asian continent, which it considers vital to its economic and geopolitical interests. This is all the more important now in view of China’s growing influence in the region. But a belligerent with nuclear weapons is another matter altogether. For the past twenty years, the United States has tried to stall North Korea’s nuclear development while constantly threatening to bring about the regime’s collapse through crippling sanctions and military exercises that rehearse provocative war plans including the decapitation of the North Korean leadership.

In defiance, Kim Jong-un has pursued a simultaneous “guns and butter” approach— eluding the sanctions through a combination of multi-year economic plans, a series of work speed-up campaigns that mobilize the entire population, and a boost in tourism and special economic zones to attract foreign currency; and devoting the country’s top scientists and engineers to developing an effective nuclear deterrent.  The Hyundai Research Institute, a South Korean think tank notes that despite the sanctions, North Korea’s per capital income has risen steadily since the 2000’s.

At the end of Obama’s presidency, the consensus in Washington was that strategic patience had failed. North Korea had not collapsed, and to the contrary, experts warned that the country will soon have an ICBM that can strike the continental United States. Siegfried Hecker, an American nuclear scientist at Stanford University, who visited North Koreas’s plutonium processing plant at Yongbyon in November 2010, estimates that North Korea might develop the capacity to strike the West Coast of the United States with a nuclear warhead within five years. Hecker wrote, the North is now probably able “to put nuclear weapons on target anywhere in South Korea and Japan and even on some U.S. assets in the Pacific.”

Richard N. Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, concurs— “It is only a matter of time before North Korea increases its nuclear arsenal (now estimated at 8-12 devices) and figures out how to miniaturize its weapons for delivery by missiles of increasing range and accuracy.”

Byungjin, apparently, has triumphed over strategic patience.

Limited Options for Trump 

Trump’s former advisor Michael Flynn seemed to reject the option of continuing the status quo, which would be to stick one’s head in the sand and simply ignore North Korea. According to a South Korean official who met with him back in November, Flynn had said North Korea’s nuclear program would be a high priority under the new administration.

What, then, are the options before Trump?

Some advocate military action to take out North Korea’s nuclear program. But they would be well-advised to remember that former President Bill Clinton considered this option in the early 1990’s and ultimately nixed the idea based on a Pentagon assessment that even limited action could escalate into a full-scale war and lead to the death of one million people. And that estimate was made before North Korea possessed nuclear weapons.

Global intelligence firm Stratfor outlined the challenges of a military action against North Korea in a five-part analytical series entitled “Removing the North Korean Nuclear Threat” published last year—

First, we simply do not have a comprehensive or precise picture of the North Korean nuclear program, especially when it comes to the number of weapons and delivery vehicles — we do not know for sure where they are located or how well they are protected. Second, we have no way of knowing just how good the U.S. intelligence picture really is when it comes to the North Korean nuclear program. Predicting the likelihood of a U.S. strike is difficult to do when the decision to carry out an attack would depend heavily on the degree of confidence the United States places in its intelligence.

The destruction of North Korea’s nuclear infrastructure is hardly enough to remove the deterrent. Therefore, though the United States can be reasonably certain of its ability to destroy the nuclear infrastructure in a single strike, it would require an extremely accurate intelligence picture — far beyond what is likely — for Washington to be reasonably certain of having hit and destroyed all available weapons and delivery vehicles. The longer the North Korean program evolves, the more this becomes a reality. Realistically, absent the use of nuclear weapons or the invasion and occupation of North Korea, the United States and its allies are already at a point where they cannot guarantee the complete removal of the threat of a North Korean nuclear attack.

The United States has 28,500 troops, some with families, stationed in South Korea, and North Korea is capable of striking key U.S. assets in the region, including Guam and Okinawa. Even limited surgical action could escalate to a full-scale regional confrontation with potential Chinese involvement. The United States, on the other hand, is still too bogged down in the Middle East to shift its attention effectively to another region as volatile as Northeast Asia. War, for anyone of rational mind, is clearly not an option.

The Myth of China’s Leverage over North Korea

Others advocate pressuring China to denuclearize North Korea. But how will this administration persuade China to solve a crisis that is essentially a problem between the United States and North Korea while Trump threatens a trade war with China? Also, China has made clear that if the United States wants its cooperation on North Korea, it should first reverse its controversial decision on the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system in South Korea.

(As a quick aside- the Pentagon wants to place missile interceptors and the THAAD radar in South Korea to counter North Korea’s missile threat and spy on China’s missile activity. This has been most ardently opposed by the residents of Seongju South Korea, where the THAAD system will be based, and China. Despite the political crisis that has engulfed South Korea, where the current administration has no legitimacy in the eyes of the public, the United States has been aggressively pushing forward the THAAD deployment decision and has said that it plans to complete the deployment by this summer.) All indications suggest the Trump administration will continue the same policy on the THAAD deployment, and that will make it difficult to get Chinese cooperation on North Korea.

Moreover, the strategy of pressuring China to denuclearize North Korea is based on the assumption that China has the kind of leverage, presumably economic, that can force North Korea to abandon its only deterrence capability. But it’s unclear that this is true.

In a report for the Wilson Center, James Person warns against outsourcing North Korea policy to China and says China’s leverage over North Korea “is a double-edged sword.” Cutting off North Korea’s economic lifeline would invite instability on China’s borders and precipitate a refugee crisis in Northeast China, “the last thing Bejing wants,” he writes. (Actually, what China may want even less is the prospect of a unified Korean peninsula led by a pro-U.S. South Korean government as its neighbor should North Korea collapse.) Moreover, Person argues, China’s leverage is limited, and North Korea’s relationship with China has historically been fraught with tension and mistrust. “Economic leverage does not enable the Chinese leadership to impose policy directives upon North Korea at will—precisely what North Korea most resisted throughout the Cold War,” he writes.

North Korea, furthermore, may not be as economically reliant on China as the United States believes. As it rebuilt its nearly-collapsed economy, North Korea placed strong emphasis on the principle of self-reliance. It devoted scientific and technological research to ensuring that their basic economic building blocks, such as steel, fertilizer and textile, are made with indigenous raw materials and technical know-how. “So that we don’t have to rely on exports and can be free from the volatile fluctuations of the global market,” explained the manager of a fully-automated sock factory in Pyongyang on the author’s trip to North Korea in 2011.

The Path to Peace

The only remaining and sensible option is to start talks, but what type of talks? The sole concern for the United States is to eliminate North Korea’s nuclear weapons. North Korea’s concern is to remove the threats to its sovereignty, i.e. the sanctions that prevent its full economic potential; the military exercises that constantly threaten war and simulate the collapse of its regime; the perpetual state of war since 1953 when an armistice put a temporary halt to the Korean War and the parties failed to produce a peace treaty; and the presence of 28,500 U.S. troops stationed south of the de-militarized zone.

The United States, if it were to negotiate, will most likely try to repeat what it has done in the past— impose a moratorium on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program and draw out the talks as long as possible while dangling the possibility of incentives, such as economic assistance and the removal of a limited layer of sanctions. But it may quickly realize that the negotiating table is no longer what it used to be.

For one, economic incentives are not what North Korea is primarily after. In a little-noticed statement issued in July 2016, North Korea laid out the terms for denuclearization and presented five conditions, all of which were very clearly not about economic assistance but had to do with removing the threats (either perceived or real) to its sovereignty posed by U.S. nuclear weapons. North Korea is no longer the energy-starved nation arduously toiling to survive as it was during the former Clinton and Bush administrations. And it now possesses a range of options in its nuclear arsenal. It successfully flight-tested a long-range submarine-launched ballistic missile last year and claims it successfully detonated a hydrogen bomb. Western experts dispute North Korea’s claims about its nuclear capability, but what matters at the negotiating table is that North Korea now feels confident enough in its deterrence capability to reject anything less than a fundamental resolution to its longstanding conflict with the United States.

The sheer arrogance of our policy makers in Washington may blind them, but they may gradually wake up to what former National Intelligence Director James Clapper concluded last year– that persuading North Korea to renounce nuclear weapons, “their ticket to survival,” is “probably a lost cause.” Unless the United States declares an end to the Korean War, signs a peace treaty and finally withdraws its troops from the peninsula, that is.

Upcoming War Games

Every year from late February through March, the U.S. and South Korean militaries conduct combined exercises called Key Resolve Foal Eagle, massive war games involving tens of thousands of U.S. troops, including from Guam, Okinawa and the U.S. mainland, and the deployment of strategic weapons.  And every year, North Korea stages a demonstration of protest before the war games begin. 2017 is no exception.

North Korea fired an intermediate-range ballistic missile into the East Sea last Sunday, and more missile tests may follow. In an exclusive interview with NBC on January 25, Choe Kang-il, deputy director general for North American affairs at North Korea’s foreign ministry, reiterated Kim Jong-un’s new year message that their country is ready to test-fire an ICBM “at any time, at any place.” Referring to the upcoming Key Resolve Foal Eagle exercises, he added, “As long as the U.S. conducts these joint military exercises we will increase our nuclear deterrent forces and our preemptive strike forces.”

If North Korea follows through on its notice of an ICBM test, then how Trump responds will be an early indicator of how U.S.-North Korean relations might play out during his administration. If he responds with tough talk and more sanctions, we’re in for escalation of tensions that could include North Korea test-launching an SLBM, followed by successive tests of an atom bomb and a hydrogen bomb, i.e. the whole kitten caboodle in its nuclear arsenal. In other words, the situation will likely get much bleaker before turning around for the better. If, on the other hand, Trump drastically scales down or halts the war games in preparation for talks, it would indicate that someone with a clear head regarding the Korea crisis has the ear of his administration and there’s a chance for improved relations.

What’s been reported thus far about this year’s Key Resolve Foal Eagle is confusing, to say the least. According to a Yonhap News report filed on February 8, Seoul and Washington are reportedly “in talks to deploy U.S. strategic assets,” including the Nimitz-class super-carrier USS Carl Vinson Strike Group, B-52 and B-1B bombers, to the Korean Peninsula during the exercises. The allies will, according to the same article, conduct the exercises as though the THAAD missile defense system, planned for deployment later this year, is already in operation and rehearse a preemptive strike plan called “4D,” which stands for detect, disrupt, destroy and defend. This reflects the recent comments of General Vincent Brooks, commander of U.S. Forces in Korea (USFK), who advocates the integration of offensive capabilities in the so-called U.S. missile “defense” system. “Defense is not enough. If we’re not also able to kill the archers, then we’ll never be able to catch enough arrows,” he said at an air and missile defense forum hosted by the Association of the U.S. Army on February 7. “So we have to have an offensive capability also integrated into our air and missile defense system.”

On the other hand, an earlier Yonhap report on January 30 curiously stated that South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) “will lead the upcoming exercises with the U.S. staff playing a supporting role” and suggested that the United States will play a markedly diminished role this year. It quoted an unnamed South Korean defense ministry official as saying, “During the upcoming Key Resolve exercise, Seoul’s JCS will be responsible for exercise planning and control, operation of opposing forces, and after-drill meetings.” The article also  announced that this year’s exercise command center will be in an underground bunker of South Korea’s Capital Defense Command, not the usual bunker of the South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command.

The two reports together don’t stack up. How would an exercise led by the South Korean JCS incorporate the THAAD system, which is solely operated by the United States? The confused reports about the upcoming Key Resolve Foal Eagle exercise may reflect general disorientation within the Trump administration and/or discord between the Pentagon and the South Korean Defense Ministry on how to approach North Korea. That, most likely, is the reason why newly-appointed defense chief Mattis scurried to Seoul within weeks of assuming office. And while there, he presumably surveyed the political mess that the current Park Geun-hye administration and the South Korean ruling party are in and could not possibly have come away with a clear or satisfying assessment of the near future for the U.S-South Korean alliance.

Mattis and his boss would do well to learn from the failures of their predecessors. North Korea is not collapsing, and its nuclear threat is real. The lives of 28,500 U.S. troops, not to mention the 75 million Koreans on the Korean peninsula, are at stake. The only sensible path is dialogue towards a fundamental solution— signing a peace treaty to bring closure to the Korean War and finally withdrawing U.S. troops from the Korean peninsula in exchange for a halt in North Korean nuclear weapons development and a commitment to non-proliferation. Suspending the upcoming war games and abandoning U.S.’ preemptive nuclear strike prerogative should be the first stop on that path.

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Trump’s new defense chief James Mattis hit the ground running, so to speak, and top on his agenda was meeting with his counterparts in South Korea and Japan. Just two weeks after being sworn in as Secretary of Defense, he was in South Korea, the initial stop on his first itinerary abroad, presumably to reassure the U.S.’ historical ally of the Pentagon’s continued commitment to the alliance between the two countries. 

What was unusual about this trip is that it broke with the now decade-long tradition of U.S. defense secretaries making the Middle East the destination of their first overseas trips. It also departs from the unspoken custom of U.S. dignitaries stopping in Tokyo before Seoul. What, then, prompted Mattis to rush to Seoul immediately after taking office?

Trump’s inauguration speech contained virtually no mention of his foreign policy goals and signaled a distinctly inward-looking and isolationist vision. “For many decades, we’ve enriched foreign industry at the expense of American industry; subsidized the armies of other countries, while allowing for the very sad depletion of our military. We’ve defended other nations’ borders while refusing to defend our own,” he said. “From this day forward, it’s going to be only America first, America first.”

North Korea: Trump’s First Foreign Policy Test in Asia

A scan of Trump’s cabinet leads one to believe U.S.’ foreign policy focus, if anything, will continue to be intervention in the Middle East and upping the ante in the so-called “war on terror.” Mattis commanded the Marines in the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq and is an outspoken critic of the U.S.’ nuclear deal with Iran. Trump’s first pick for national security advisor Mike Flynn was well known for his controversial views on Islam before he eventually resigned over his alleged Russian connections. And Trump expects, however inanely, his son-in-law Jared Kushner to “produce peace in the Middle East.”

As far as Asia is concerned, U.S.’ alliance with Japan, not South Korea, will likely be the anchor of Trump’s security policy in the region. Japan’s prime minister Shinzo Abe was the first foreign leader to meet Trump after his November election win and met him again this past weekend over a round of golf at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.

So why, again, did Mattis cross the Pacific in such a hurry to visit Seoul?

What Keeps them Up at Night

The clue may be found in the recent remarks of Robert Brown, the commander of U.S. Army Pacific, at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “The thing that keeps me up at night, the thing that worries me the most is North Korea,” he said on January 25 in a keynote address on the forecast for the Asian region in 2017.

State Secretary Rex Tillerson echoed this sentiment in a recent phone conversation with his South Korean counterpart Yun Byung-se. Referring to the North Korean nuclear program as an “immediate threat,” Tillerson reportedly said the issue will be foremost in his face-to-face talks with Yun in the near future.

From the outset of his administration, even before he’s had a chance to get his house in order, Trump is faced with a North Korea that has, for the past eight years while the previous U.S. administration refused to engage, been quietly sharpening its sword. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un warned in his new year address that his country is close to test-launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to the continental United States. And just one day before Trump took office, North Korea placed two missiles presumed to be ICBMs on mobile launchers in plain view of U.S. spy satellites.

Spooked, the Pentagon deployed its Sea-Based X-Band Radar out of Pearl Harbor 2,000 miles northwest of Hawaii to watch for a possible North Korean launch. This might also explain why, within minutes of Trump’s inauguration, the White House posted a policy position on its website announcing its intention to develop a “state of the art” missile defense system to protect against attacks from North Korea and Iran.

An incoming government official not given to following the U.S.-North Korean conflict may ask oneself, “How the heck did we get here?”

Byung-jin versus Strategic Patience

U.S.-North Korean relations during the previous Obama administration may be characterized as a contest between “byung-jin” versus strategic patience— strategic patience being the U.S.’ policy of waiting and preparing for the eventual collapse of the North Korean regime, and “byung-jin” being North Korea’s strategy of making parallel progress in economic development and its nuclear deterrence capability.

The United States has always maintained a certain level of tension on the Korean peninsula and painted North Korea as a belligerent pariah to justify U.S.’ strategic presence on the Asian continent, which it considers vital to its economic and geopolitical interests. This is all the more important now in view of China’s growing influence in the region. But a belligerent with nuclear weapons is another matter altogether. For the past twenty years, the United States has tried to stall North Korea’s nuclear development while constantly threatening to bring about the regime’s collapse through crippling sanctions and military exercises that rehearse provocative war plans including the decapitation of the North Korean leadership.

In defiance, Kim Jong-un has pursued a simultaneous “guns and butter” approach— eluding the sanctions through a combination of multi-year economic plans, a series of work speed-up campaigns that mobilize the entire population, and a boost in tourism and special economic zones to attract foreign currency; and devoting the country’s top scientists and engineers to developing an effective nuclear deterrent.  The Hyundai Research Institute, a South Korean think tank notes that despite the sanctions, North Korea’s per capital income has risen steadily since the 2000’s.

At the end of Obama’s presidency, the consensus in Washington was that strategic patience had failed. North Korea had not collapsed, and to the contrary, experts warned that the country will soon have an ICBM that can strike the continental United States. Siegfried Hecker, an American nuclear scientist at Stanford University, who visited North Koreas’s plutonium processing plant at Yongbyon in November 2010, estimates that North Korea might develop the capacity to strike the West Coast of the United States with a nuclear warhead within five years. Hecker wrote, the North is now probably able “to put nuclear weapons on target anywhere in South Korea and Japan and even on some U.S. assets in the Pacific.”

Richard N. Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, concurs— “It is only a matter of time before North Korea increases its nuclear arsenal (now estimated at 8-12 devices) and figures out how to miniaturize its weapons for delivery by missiles of increasing range and accuracy.”

Byungjin, apparently, has triumphed over strategic patience.

Limited Options for Trump 

Trump’s former advisor Michael Flynn seemed to reject the option of continuing the status quo, which would be to stick one’s head in the sand and simply ignore North Korea. According to a South Korean official who met with him back in November, Flynn had said North Korea’s nuclear program would be a high priority under the new administration.

What, then, are the options before Trump?

Some advocate military action to take out North Korea’s nuclear program. But they would be well-advised to remember that former President Bill Clinton considered this option in the early 1990’s and ultimately nixed the idea based on a Pentagon assessment that even limited action could escalate into a full-scale war and lead to the death of one million people. And that estimate was made before North Korea possessed nuclear weapons.

Global intelligence firm Stratfor outlined the challenges of a military action against North Korea in a five-part analytical series entitled “Removing the North Korean Nuclear Threat” published last year—

First, we simply do not have a comprehensive or precise picture of the North Korean nuclear program, especially when it comes to the number of weapons and delivery vehicles — we do not know for sure where they are located or how well they are protected. Second, we have no way of knowing just how good the U.S. intelligence picture really is when it comes to the North Korean nuclear program. Predicting the likelihood of a U.S. strike is difficult to do when the decision to carry out an attack would depend heavily on the degree of confidence the United States places in its intelligence.

The destruction of North Korea’s nuclear infrastructure is hardly enough to remove the deterrent. Therefore, though the United States can be reasonably certain of its ability to destroy the nuclear infrastructure in a single strike, it would require an extremely accurate intelligence picture — far beyond what is likely — for Washington to be reasonably certain of having hit and destroyed all available weapons and delivery vehicles. The longer the North Korean program evolves, the more this becomes a reality. Realistically, absent the use of nuclear weapons or the invasion and occupation of North Korea, the United States and its allies are already at a point where they cannot guarantee the complete removal of the threat of a North Korean nuclear attack.

The United States has 28,500 troops, some with families, stationed in South Korea, and North Korea is capable of striking key U.S. assets in the region, including Guam and Okinawa. Even limited surgical action could escalate to a full-scale regional confrontation with potential Chinese involvement. The United States, on the other hand, is still too bogged down in the Middle East to shift its attention effectively to another region as volatile as Northeast Asia. War, for anyone of rational mind, is clearly not an option.

The Myth of China’s Leverage over North Korea

Others advocate pressuring China to denuclearize North Korea. But how will this administration persuade China to solve a crisis that is essentially a problem between the United States and North Korea while Trump threatens a trade war with China? Also, China has made clear that if the United States wants its cooperation on North Korea, it should first reverse its controversial decision on the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system in South Korea.

(As a quick aside- the Pentagon wants to place missile interceptors and the THAAD radar in South Korea to counter North Korea’s missile threat and spy on China’s missile activity. This has been most ardently opposed by the residents of Seongju South Korea, where the THAAD system will be based, and China. Despite the political crisis that has engulfed South Korea, where the current administration has no legitimacy in the eyes of the public, the United States has been aggressively pushing forward the THAAD deployment decision and has said that it plans to complete the deployment by this summer.) All indications suggest the Trump administration will continue the same policy on the THAAD deployment, and that will make it difficult to get Chinese cooperation on North Korea.

Moreover, the strategy of pressuring China to denuclearize North Korea is based on the assumption that China has the kind of leverage, presumably economic, that can force North Korea to abandon its only deterrence capability. But it’s unclear that this is true.

In a report for the Wilson Center, James Person warns against outsourcing North Korea policy to China and says China’s leverage over North Korea “is a double-edged sword.” Cutting off North Korea’s economic lifeline would invite instability on China’s borders and precipitate a refugee crisis in Northeast China, “the last thing Bejing wants,” he writes. (Actually, what China may want even less is the prospect of a unified Korean peninsula led by a pro-U.S. South Korean government as its neighbor should North Korea collapse.) Moreover, Person argues, China’s leverage is limited, and North Korea’s relationship with China has historically been fraught with tension and mistrust. “Economic leverage does not enable the Chinese leadership to impose policy directives upon North Korea at will—precisely what North Korea most resisted throughout the Cold War,” he writes.

North Korea, furthermore, may not be as economically reliant on China as the United States believes. As it rebuilt its nearly-collapsed economy, North Korea placed strong emphasis on the principle of self-reliance. It devoted scientific and technological research to ensuring that their basic economic building blocks, such as steel, fertilizer and textile, are made with indigenous raw materials and technical know-how. “So that we don’t have to rely on exports and can be free from the volatile fluctuations of the global market,” explained the manager of a fully-automated sock factory in Pyongyang on the author’s trip to North Korea in 2011.

The Path to Peace

The only remaining and sensible option is to start talks, but what type of talks? The sole concern for the United States is to eliminate North Korea’s nuclear weapons. North Korea’s concern is to remove the threats to its sovereignty, i.e. the sanctions that prevent its full economic potential; the military exercises that constantly threaten war and simulate the collapse of its regime; the perpetual state of war since 1953 when an armistice put a temporary halt to the Korean War and the parties failed to produce a peace treaty; and the presence of 28,500 U.S. troops stationed south of the de-militarized zone.

The United States, if it were to negotiate, will most likely try to repeat what it has done in the past— impose a moratorium on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program and draw out the talks as long as possible while dangling the possibility of incentives, such as economic assistance and the removal of a limited layer of sanctions. But it may quickly realize that the negotiating table is no longer what it used to be.

For one, economic incentives are not what North Korea is primarily after. In a little-noticed statement issued in July 2016, North Korea laid out the terms for denuclearization and presented five conditions, all of which were very clearly not about economic assistance but had to do with removing the threats (either perceived or real) to its sovereignty posed by U.S. nuclear weapons. North Korea is no longer the energy-starved nation arduously toiling to survive as it was during the former Clinton and Bush administrations. And it now possesses a range of options in its nuclear arsenal. It successfully flight-tested a long-range submarine-launched ballistic missile last year and claims it successfully detonated a hydrogen bomb. Western experts dispute North Korea’s claims about its nuclear capability, but what matters at the negotiating table is that North Korea now feels confident enough in its deterrence capability to reject anything less than a fundamental resolution to its longstanding conflict with the United States.

The sheer arrogance of our policy makers in Washington may blind them, but they may gradually wake up to what former National Intelligence Director James Clapper concluded last year– that persuading North Korea to renounce nuclear weapons, “their ticket to survival,” is “probably a lost cause.” Unless the United States declares an end to the Korean War, signs a peace treaty and finally withdraws its troops from the peninsula, that is.

Upcoming War Games

Every year from late February through March, the U.S. and South Korean militaries conduct combined exercises called Key Resolve Foal Eagle, massive war games involving tens of thousands of U.S. troops, including from Guam, Okinawa and the U.S. mainland, and the deployment of strategic weapons.  And every year, North Korea stages a demonstration of protest before the war games begin. 2017 is no exception.

North Korea fired an intermediate-range ballistic missile into the East Sea last Sunday, and more missile tests may follow. In an exclusive interview with NBC on January 25, Choe Kang-il, deputy director general for North American affairs at North Korea’s foreign ministry, reiterated Kim Jong-un’s new year message that their country is ready to test-fire an ICBM “at any time, at any place.” Referring to the upcoming Key Resolve Foal Eagle exercises, he added, “As long as the U.S. conducts these joint military exercises we will increase our nuclear deterrent forces and our preemptive strike forces.”

If North Korea follows through on its notice of an ICBM test, then how Trump responds will be an early indicator of how U.S.-North Korean relations might play out during his administration. If he responds with tough talk and more sanctions, we’re in for escalation of tensions that could include North Korea test-launching an SLBM, followed by successive tests of an atom bomb and a hydrogen bomb, i.e. the whole kitten caboodle in its nuclear arsenal. In other words, the situation will likely get much bleaker before turning around for the better. If, on the other hand, Trump drastically scales down or halts the war games in preparation for talks, it would indicate that someone with a clear head regarding the Korea crisis has the ear of his administration and there’s a chance for improved relations.

What’s been reported thus far about this year’s Key Resolve Foal Eagle is confusing, to say the least. According to a Yonhap News report filed on February 8, Seoul and Washington are reportedly “in talks to deploy U.S. strategic assets,” including the Nimitz-class super-carrier USS Carl Vinson Strike Group, B-52 and B-1B bombers, to the Korean Peninsula during the exercises. The allies will, according to the same article, conduct the exercises as though the THAAD missile defense system, planned for deployment later this year, is already in operation and rehearse a preemptive strike plan called “4D,” which stands for detect, disrupt, destroy and defend. This reflects the recent comments of General Vincent Brooks, commander of U.S. Forces in Korea (USFK), who advocates the integration of offensive capabilities in the so-called U.S. missile “defense” system. “Defense is not enough. If we’re not also able to kill the archers, then we’ll never be able to catch enough arrows,” he said at an air and missile defense forum hosted by the Association of the U.S. Army on February 7. “So we have to have an offensive capability also integrated into our air and missile defense system.”

On the other hand, an earlier Yonhap report on January 30 curiously stated that South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) “will lead the upcoming exercises with the U.S. staff playing a supporting role” and suggested that the United States will play a markedly diminished role this year. It quoted an unnamed South Korean defense ministry official as saying, “During the upcoming Key Resolve exercise, Seoul’s JCS will be responsible for exercise planning and control, operation of opposing forces, and after-drill meetings.” The article also  announced that this year’s exercise command center will be in an underground bunker of South Korea’s Capital Defense Command, not the usual bunker of the South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command.

The two reports together don’t stack up. How would an exercise led by the South Korean JCS incorporate the THAAD system, which is solely operated by the United States? The confused reports about the upcoming Key Resolve Foal Eagle exercise may reflect general disorientation within the Trump administration and/or discord between the Pentagon and the South Korean Defense Ministry on how to approach North Korea. That, most likely, is the reason why newly-appointed defense chief Mattis scurried to Seoul within weeks of assuming office. And while there, he presumably surveyed the political mess that the current Park Geun-hye administration and the South Korean ruling party are in and could not possibly have come away with a clear or satisfying assessment of the near future for the U.S-South Korean alliance.

Mattis and his boss would do well to learn from the failures of their predecessors. North Korea is not collapsing, and its nuclear threat is real. The lives of 28,500 U.S. troops, not to mention the 75 million Koreans on the Korean peninsula, are at stake. The only sensible path is dialogue towards a fundamental solution— signing a peace treaty to bring closure to the Korean War and finally withdrawing U.S. troops from the Korean peninsula in exchange for a halt in North Korean nuclear weapons development and a commitment to non-proliferation. Suspending the upcoming war games and abandoning U.S.’ preemptive nuclear strike prerogative should be the first stop on that path.

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The Trump Administration has just accused Venezuela’s newly appointed Vice-President, Tareck El Aissami, of being involved in drug trafficking, thereby dishing out the usual criminal spiel – illegal sanctions against a foreign dignitary with travel bans and asset seizures. This is Washington’s abject behavior at its best, as are so many others around the world of similar nature.

Therefore, let me say upfront: We can protest as much as we want. The Anglo-American  empire in Washington and its European vassals do not care one bit. To the contrary, the more hapless protests there are, the more they laugh to themselves – ‘Bingo! We did it again. – Case closed. And sanctions stay. New ones are invented at will, wherever and whenever it pleases the empire. Because nothing happens from the opponents – other than hot air.

Sanctions – economic sanctions, as most of them are, can only stand and ‘succeed’, as long as countries, who oppose Washington’s dictate remain bound into the western, dollar-based, fraudulent monetary scheme. The system is entirely privatized by a small Zionist-led elite. FED, Wall Street, Bank for International Settlement (BIS), are all private institutions, largely controlled by the Rothschild, Rockefeller, Morgan et al clans. They are also supported by the Breton Woods Organizations, IMF and World Bank, conveniently created under the Charter of the UN.

Few progressive economists understand how this debt-based pyramid scam is manipulating the entire western economic system. When in a just world, it should be just the contrary, the economy that shapes, designs and decides the functioning of the monetary system and policy.

Even Russia, with Atlantists still largely commanding the central bank and much of the financial system, isn’t fully detached from the dollar dominion – yet.

‘Renegades’ of the US-globalized Deep State must de-dollarize and migrate towards the eastern SCO-based economy (SCO = Shanghai Cooperation Organization, including Russia, China, most of Central Asia, Pakistan, Iran; – and India for good or for bad, is a contender), where the future is, where huge and honest prospects of future economic development are emerging, especially the Chinese initiated New Silk Road, or OBOR – One Belt-One Road – that foresees an infrastructure, industrial and technological boom, connecting Vladivostok with Lisbon and Shanghai with Hamburg – and everything in between. China’s President Xi Jinping has opened the door for everyone to join – no force, sheer invitation.

This also means breaking loose from the IMF’s and World Bank’s debt tentacles and the rest of the western monetary gangsters. It doesn’t happen overnight, but steps towards regaining sovereignty should be initiated rather sooner than later – to reduce, speak withstand and eliminate sanction imposed damages. For Russia, despite the Atlantists, sanctions were a blessing. They are the best that could have happened to our economy, Mr. Putin said. They pushed us to promote an economy of self-reliance, especially in agriculture and industrial development. In 2015, Russia was the world’s first wheat exporter.

—–

Back to drugs and fighting drug lords. The Plan Colombia which started in 2000 and has since cost about US$ 20 billion, was officially designed precisely to fight the drug mafia’s coca plantations and drug cartels. Yet, since the Plan begun, the surface of coca plantations has more than doubled in Colombia; and output efficiency today is almost three times what it was in 2000.

Washington’s fake accusations and outrageous slandering of Venezuela’s Vice President, Mr. Tareck El Aissami, are totally absurd. They are aiming in a first instance at further bad-mouthing Venezuela among the uneducated MSM-brainwashed international public. It’s ‘false news’ propaganda, attempting to pull Venezuela into the drug ‘war’ playing out between Colombia, Mexico and Peru – all fomented by Washington.

Up to his recent assignment as Vice-President, Mr. El Aissami was Interior Minister, successfully fighting drug mafias, covertly promoted by the DEA and the CIA. Clamping down on the new Vice-President might be a punishment for his unwavering fight against the US backed drug lords, while he was Interior Minister. In fact, during his ministerial tenure, Tareck Al Aissami, a man of full integrity, has hit hard the cartels of international drug dealers, capturing 102 drug lords, of whom 21 were extradited to the United States. To make things even more ridiculous, apparently Tareck Al Aissimi does not even hold a US visa neither has he any assets in the USA that could be frozen as claimed.

The bigger and larger scale agenda behind this latest defamation scheme maybe a monstrous attempt to bring NATO to South America. Yes, you read right – Pentagon’s European military branch, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. They have absolutely nothing to do in Latin America, but as long as nobody screams murder and acts against it – the impunity of the empire is almost bottomless.

The little publicized fact is that President Manuel Santos of Colombia has recently invited NATO to come to Colombia to help him ‘fight organized crime’ –  meaning, most likely a new FARC war, easily revived with a few false flags – as already happened recently

(http://thesaker.is/colombia-inviting-nato-to-fight-organized-crime-a-menace-for-latin-america/ ).

This move has been under preparation since 2012 / 2013, right from the beginning of Peace Negotiations between the Santos Government and FARC. It started with a so-called ‘best practice technical assistance agreement’ between NATO and Colombia – extendable to real troops and armory movements into Colombia – meaning automatically NATO spreading all throughout Latin America. The Natoization of LATAM! – What a prospect!

Venezuela with Hugo Chavez was the only country protesting already during Colombia’s initial negotiations with Brussels / NATO. Today, except for Venezuela, I don’t know of any other Latin American country that shouted out in protest. Not that it mattered, as nothing matters to the exceptional nation. But it would help spread awareness about what Washington has in store as its latest oppressing atrocity for Latin America.

Might this be one of the chief purposes of this intimidating defamation launched against Venezuela and her Vice President, whose ethical integrity is proven beyond doubt?

Peter Koenig is an economist and geopolitical analyst. He is also a former World Bank staff and worked extensively around the world in the fields of environment and water resources. He lectures at universities in the US, Europe and South America. He writes regularly for Global Research, ICH, RT, Sputnik, PressTV, The 4th Media, TeleSUR, TruePublica, The Vineyard of The Saker Blog, and other internet sites. He is the author of Implosion – An Economic Thriller about War, Environmental Destruction and Corporate Greed – fiction based on facts and on 30 years of World Bank experience around the globe. He is also a co-author of The World Order and Revolution! – Essays from the Resistance

 

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Trump and the Deep State

February 19th, 2017 by Michael Welch

You have to go back to Nixon to find a president with as strong negative views about the agency. But the agency did not get this kind of public disparagement from Nixon.” –Paul Pillar, a former senior CIA official, in an interview with AlterNet. [1]

Discussion of ‘Trump and the Deep State’ is resonating across the independent media spectrum in the wake of the resignation of President Trump’s pick for National Security Advisor Michael Flynn. 

Flynn was a significant ally in any effort to reform the national security state and fend off a Cold War showdown with Russia. Trump’s dismissal of Flynn has been portrayed as comparable to the sacrifice of a pawn to protect more important assets in a much larger chess game with a faction of the Deep State. 

A more comprehensive discussion of these developments will be featured in a future installment of the Global Research News Hour. In the meantime, this January 20th broadcast, suggested as a substitute for the February 17th show, provides some context and outlines much of the fundamentals in this emerging constitutional crisis striking the heart of U.S. democracy. – MAW ] 

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Donald Trump has finally taken his oath of office and assumed the role of President of theUnited States of America.

His inauguration on Friday, January 20th coincided with numerous protests both in Washington and in cities across the US and around the world.

Trump’s rise to power and his cabinet picks have provoked numerous questions. Will he indeed build a wall between Mexico and the US? Will he register Muslims? What will become of the Free trade agreements like NAFTA which he has vowed to scrap or renegotiate? If he is mending relations withRussia, what will that mean for current hot-spots Syria and Ukraine, and for foreign policy generally?

On this week’s Global Research News Hour we take a look behind the scenes to determine how political events such as the recent election, are being manipulated to achieve elite ends, and the consequences for US democracy, and perhaps the future of Humanity.

Dr. Jack Rasmus is a progressive journalist, radio host, former union organizer and local president, and author. Hs upcoming book, ‘Central Bankers on the Ropes: Monetary Policy and the Next Depression’ will be released in April.

Professor Michel Chossudovsky is an award-winning author, Professor of Economics (emeritus) at the University of Ottawa, Founder and Director of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), Montreal, and Editor of Global Research.

Mark Robinowitz is a writer, political activist, ecological campaigner and permaculture practitioner and publisher of oilempire dot us, a political map to connect the dots. campaigner and permaculture practitioner for over three decades.

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The Global Research News Hour airs every Friday at 1pm CT on CKUW 95.9FM in Winnipeg. The programme is also podcast at globalresearch.ca . The show can be heard on the Progressive Radio Network at prn.fm. Listen in every Thursday at 6pm ET.

Community Radio Stations carrying the Global Research News Hour:

CHLY 101.7fm in Nanaimo, B.C – Thursdays at 1pm PT

Boston College Radio WZBC 90.3FM NEWTONS  during the Truth and Justice Radio Programming slot -Sundays at 7am ET.

Port Perry Radio in Port Perry, Ontario –1  Thursdays at 1pm ET

Burnaby Radio Station CJSF out of Simon Fraser University. 90.1FM to most of Greater Vancouver, from Langley to Point Grey and from the North Shore to the US Border.

It is also available on 93.9 FM cable in the communities of SFU, Burnaby, New Westminister, Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Surrey and Delta, in British Columbia, Canada. – Tune in  at its new time – Wednesdays at 4pm PT.

Radio station CFUV 101.9FM based at the University of Victoria airs the Global Research News Hour every Sunday from 7 to 8am PT.

CORTES COMMUNITY RADIO CKTZ  89.5 out of Manson’s Landing, B.C airs the show Tuesday mornings at 10am Pacific time.

Cowichan Valley Community Radio CICV 98.7 FM serving the Cowichan Lake area of Vancouver Island, BC airs the program Thursdays at 6am pacific time.

Campus and community radio CFMH 107.3fm in  Saint John, N.B. airs the Global Research News Hour Fridays at 10am.

Caper Radio CJBU 107.3FM in Sydney, Cape Breton, Nova Scotia airs the Global Research News Hour starting Wednesday Morning from 8:00 to 9:00am. Find more details at www.caperradio.ca 

The February 17th edition of the Global Research News Hour was a live fund-raiser for host radio station CKUW 95.9fm in Winnipeg, and is not available for broadcast by our partner stations.

Notes:

1) http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/trump-cia-war

Analyzing the Emerging World Order: The Future of Globalism

February 19th, 2017 by Levaughn Duran

The global community today is clearly in a state of flux. This is not an aberration – we are in the midst of a normal and periodic global reordering. We shall briefly take a “big picture” look at this phenomenon and attempt to glean an understanding as to the direction that we are heading as citizens of a global society. It is my hope that these observations can foster a more in depth discussion between reasonable people; leading to the development of ideas which can then be implemented to improve the human condition.

Current Paradigm:

We live in a world subdivided by societies: nations and their respective subdivisions. As a matter of fact, there are over 200 nations recognized by the United Nations (UN). We are taught that a society must conform to a binary label such as “free” or “unfree”, “democratic” or “non-democratic” and so on. This is done principally for two reasons – to provide a tautological definition, also for easier control of the masses via manipulation.

The current overarching narrative provides that we are divided between the “western” and “eastern” worlds. What does this really mean? We can distill this down to one principal root: economics. What do we mean by economics? We can say that in it’s purest form, it is simply the structured allocation of finite resources.

Today we are observing the transition from a so called unipolar world, one in which a single nation (or group of allied nations) dictates the terms of life for all global citizens, to a more balanced and natural multipolar world.

The current dominating group, the “western” bloc of nations, is led by the United States along with numerous vassal states; this order has persisted since the end of the Second World War. This construct is held together using a combination of supranational organizations (UN,WTO,World Bank, IMF, et cetera), propaganda (mainstream media complex), armed might (MIC,NATO, private mercenary forces) and chiefly economics (central banks, corporations).

The true “rulers” of this bloc are a cabal of very wealthy and powerful oligarchs that work in the background (shadow banking, dark pool finance, shadow governments, think tanks, NGO’s) to subvert the various sovereignties to their advantage. These oligarchs are the principal owners of, not just the industries and corporations that front for them, but the governments that rule over the masses. Most importantly this cabal owns the means by which real wealth extraction is carried out: fiat currency, chiefly the “worlds reserve currency”- the United States dollar and it’s derivatives. These currencies are backed not by equitable assets; such as natural resources, precious metals or productive capacities; instead they are backed by the creation of debt. Debt that represents a claim on real assets that virtually all participants in global commerce must pay.

How did this cabal come into power? This is a complex question that is subject to many possible answers and interpretations. Briefly, we know from historical fact that a global empire is a central part of this construct, today the United States empire holds that role (previously British, French so on…). This provides the controlling force behind such a cabal. The privately owned quasi-governmental western central banks are at the heart of this operation. They form the crucial nexus between sovereign governments and the financial world in which they derive their revenue stream, and by extension, their power. The current seat of this construct (United States) was founded as a Constitutional Republic. Unfortunately, the United States Constitution is quite amorphous. Using many acts of legislative, executive and even judicial fiat, this cabal has been able to effectively take over the reigns of the nation. With that feat accomplished, near world domination was made possible. A complex web of regulations, laws, and rules; coupled with a financial system few fully comprehend has been put into place across the west. This became the mechanism by which this “new world order” has been enforced.

The unsolvable problem here is that this debt based system is really just an elaborate pyramid scheme predicated on ever increasing amounts of debt in a world where sources of real wealth are finite. At present, the growth rate and the total amount of debt issuance, is outpacing the extraction rate and amount of available reserves of resources on the planet.

A Path Forward?…..

A new bloc of nations has been pushed toward an alliance. This bloc of nations consists of principally China, Russia and Iran (“eastern bloc”). These nations are led by various actors who seem to comprehend the likely nature of the end game inherent to the current financial construction. They are out of necessity seeking a path toward a different and more balanced and hopefully sustainable economic and global governance paradigm.

Not individually formidable, these nations collectively are quite powerful. Lets take a look at the derivation of that power. Firstly we examine a crucial metric: energy, it is well documented that these nations collectively possess enough energy resources to adequately power their economies for a long time. They also possess much of the worlds’ known stores of natural commercial use resources (metals, minerals, rare earth elements).

Additionally, owing in part to technological advances and also to long term changes in the earth’s climate, they possess the means to adequately feed their populations. They are also taking advantage of the fact that scientific knowledge and technological innovation (the key to a sustainable and competitive economy) are geographical location independent, as scientific axioms are immutable and provable anywhere on the planet. Lastly, the differences between these nations is paradoxically what makes them a powerful bloc. As example: China has become the world’s workshop and an innovation leader whilst Russia proper contains large deposits of natural resources, carries very low external debt levels and possesses a very technologically advanced war machine.

Initiatives led by China such as the OBOR (One Belt One Road) infrastructure project, the AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank) and the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) are aimed at providing distinct alternatives to western backed organizations such as the World Bank, IMF, UN, et cetera. The key piece of this strategy seems to be the use of the fiat system itself to fund the accumulation of tangible assets (businesses, technologies, resources, PM’s).

These assets can be then be utilized as a hedge against probable future turbulence with the current western based fiat regime. Why are these nations not publicly clamoring for this system to be dismantled sooner rather then later? First of all, this is a dangerous proposition, as they would likely be economically punished (Greece, Brazil) or worse, suffer an armed attack/invasion (Iraq, Libya). One just needs to observe the large amount of vitriol directed toward these nations in the western mainstream press to connect theses dots – these nations surely get the message. Secondly, they are slowly dissolving this system on their own terms (direct bilateral trade agreements via own currencies, accumulation of PM’s as a potential partial backing to their respective currencies). As of now, these nations are taking advantage of the current system to build up their economies and national infrastructures for the long term. As an example, Russia and China have begun co-developing a wide body passenger aircraft using their respective indigenous technologies and knowledge bases. These activities are made possible by their embedment into the current monetary system.

Conclusion:

For the human condition to improve, the following possible actions should be taken under serious consideration.

The western fiat currency regime should be dissolved, most outstanding debts should be extinguished (debt jubilee, massive write offs, large scale revaluations), and national sovereignty must regain prominence across the entire globe.

A balanced financial system based principally on equitable assets must take the place of the current debt based system. Sovereign governments should look to take on the crucial role as their own primary issuer of currency; this of course would require much more honest and transparent governments’ than we currently have in place.

A new system of loose decentralized global governance should be constructed to act as an impartial arbiter in geopolitical and economic affairs. These are but a few of the possible reforms that could be made to affect a more intelligent paradigm of globalism. Whether the alternative system(s) being pursued by the emergent eastern bloc will fulfill these objectives still remains to be seen, as big challenges remain, e.g. environmental degradation.

The best outcome for the world at large is a general reset of sorts. A new paradigm in which malinvestments are discouraged and cleared away, success and effort are rewarded, and opportunity for all is sought as a societal virtue, should be pursued. Worse case is a long term continuation of the current system. This outcome is likely to lead to increasing levels of civil and political unrest, and possible widespread conflict as the planet’s capacity to support the growth rates demanded by a debt based system is diminished by a declining real ROI.

L. Duran,  Originally trained in STEM field, seeking to gain a deeper understanding and foster further knowledge of the world at large beyond the mainstream media narrative. This article is an academic oriented overview of the current and possible future paradigm vis a vis the balance of power on the planet, includes some possible reforms to improve the human condition for all citizens.

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The Syrian army and the National Defense Forces (NDF) continued an assault against ISIS in the province of Homs, recapturing Eastern Bayarat and further advancing on Jabal Hayyal and Jabhal Thaniyat near the ISIS-held city of Palmyra. If government troops are able to take control over these hills, they will be able to set a fire control over the western outskirts of Palmyra.

Separately, government troops attacked ISIS terrorists in the area if the Jihar field northeast of the Tiyas Airbase, but were not able to make gains there yet.

The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), predominantly Kurdish YPG units, resized the villages of Siadun and Hasan Zayd from ISIS.

The northern Syrian town of al-Bab has been liberated from ISIS terrorists and Turkish troops are now working to clear the area from mines and explosives, the Turkish daily “Daily Sabah” reported, citing Chief of General Staff General Hulusi Akar. Probably, the Turkish chief of general staff forgot that pro-Turksih militant groups, backed up by the Turkish army, had retreated almost from all areas seized in the ISIS stronghold of al-Bab. Thus, the only side controlling al-Bab is ISIS.

Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani has allegedly visited Moscow to meet with high-ranking Russian officials, Fox News reported on Wednesday, citing sources in intelligence. Soleimani is a commander of the Quds Force, a Special Forces’ unit of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards responsible for their extraterritorial operations. The Kremlin declined to comment on media reports about the visit of the Iranian Major General.

If Soleimani’s visit to Russia is confirmed, it would be an obvious move by the Iranian political-military leadership. The likely agenda was the involvement of the US and Turkey in the conflict, as well as combating ISIS and other terrorist groups in Syria across the Middle East.

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JFK’s Murder: A “Coup d’état in America”

February 19th, 2017 by WhoWhatWhy

On November 22, 1963, President John F. Kennedy was gunned down in the streets of Dallas in broad daylight. According to the Warren Commission (1964), the government’s first official investigative panel into the president’s death, JFK was shot by lone gunman Lee Harvey Oswald from the 6th floor window of the Texas School Book Depository Building with an Italian Mannlicher-Carcano rifle. The Commission concluded that Oswald fired three shots: one that missed (the Commission said it was inconclusive which of the shots missed), one that hit both Kennedy and Governor John Connally (the “magic bullet”), and the final shot that hit Kennedy in the head.

The “magic bullet” is so named because it followed what seems to be an extraordinary trajectory: it penetrated JFK’s back, exited the throat, then proceeded to hit Connally (who was sitting in front of Kennedy), passing through his back, hitting a rib, exiting his chest, hitting his right wrist, and finally hitting his left thigh, leaving behind a small fragment seven millimeters beneath the skin. What was presumably this same bullet was later found on a stretcher in nearly undamaged condition.

Cyril H. Wecht

Cyril H. Wecht, author. Photo credit: Adapted by WhoWhatWhy from WhoWhatWhy Org / YouTube,
 Prometheus Books, Penguin and Planet Ann Rule.

The later House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) contradicted the Warren Commission by concluding that JFK’s death was probably the result of a conspiracy involving two shooters. Today, however, most newsmedia and government figures publicly accept the findings of the Warren Commission, even though polling consistently shows that the vast majority of Americans have serious doubts about its conclusions.

Dr. Cyril Wecht, for two decades the elected coroner of Allegheny County, Pennsylvania (including Pittsburgh), is a nationally acclaimed forensic pathologist, and holds both a medical degree from the University of Pittsburgh (1956), and a law degree from the University of Maryland (1962). Forensic pathologists specialize in medically determining how and why someone died. In criminal murder cases this function is absolutely vital in helping to determine the guilt or innocence of a suspect — in no case more so than in the assassination of John F. Kennedy.

Dr. Wecht, a very early critic of the Warren Commission, testified at the HSCA. At the annual JFK Lancer assassination research conference in Dallas, held in November, Dr. Wecht summarized the medical evidence against the lone-gunman hypothesis.

At the center of Dr. Wecht’s examination is what has become known as the “single-bullet theory” — or the “magic bullet,” as it is known to its detractors: the theory that one bullet can account for the multiple wounds (besides the headshot) of both JFK and Governor Connally. According to Dr. Wecht, the conclusions of the Warren Commission rest entirely on the single-bullet theory. If that theory fails, then there had to be more than one gunman. This, in turn, leads to questions about the history of the United States since 1963 that many people would rather not pursue.

With both passion and meticulous attention to detail, Wecht dissects the Warren Commission’s conclusions. Moving beyond the medical evidence, he then utters words unexpected from any former American elected official, and particularly powerful coming from a person with his credentials:  “What we witnessed…my friends, in plain, plain English — was [a] coup d’état in America. The overthrow of the government. That’s what this case was all about.”

At a time when America again faces extraordinary political turbulence, what happened more than half a century ago takes on renewed significance.

As a service to our readers, we provide transcripts with our podcasts. We try to ensure that these transcripts do not include errors. However, due to a constraint of resources, we are not always able to proofread them as closely as we would like and hope that you will excuse any errors that slipped through.

Full Text Transcript:

Under the single bullet theory, approximately a second to a second and a half, has elapsed, and Governor Connally under the definition of the single bullet theory, has been hit through the chest, through the wrist, the bone has been shattered, the radial nerve that permits the thumb to hold things in apposition has been almost completely severed. The bullet’s gone into the left thigh, and there he sits, continuing to hold the hat and to look forward. A remarkable accomplishment, one of the most incomplete,  superficial, inadequate, inept, forensic pathologically incompetent medical legal autopsies I’ve ever seen.

Debra Conway: I want to honor you, Cyril. We all want to honor you. And It is a privilege to have you here. Thank you for coming so much in joining us. I tell you what. You want to get high? Go on YouTube and find Cyril Wecht talking about the single bullet theory. It is a high. I will Google him and show people, and we have a clip of him actually demonstrating that, at a trial. And I wish it would work, but anyway. My husband is probably Cyril’s biggest fan though they only met tonight, but he’s watched Concussion probably 758 times, and every time he’ll tell people, “My wife knows him.” But you know when you talk about bravery, this is a cliché, but you know what, you look in the dictionary and you’re going to see this man right here. And not just about the Kennedy assassination. He’s fought for life for people. He’s explained death for juries.

He’s shown us, more than anybody else that I can think of, that there is a truth in death, that there is a truth in how you die. That’s pretty comforting that your body is evidence in a way that we never understood before. Now it’s in every movie. Crime scene evidence. My own sister is a crime scene expert. But guess who was the pioneer? Our pioneer. And you know, he could have run screaming from the Kennedy assassination. He didn’t need this, but I think he recognized kindred spirits, and this is what I’m telling you, is that you have power as a community, as a group, you have power. And this guy is the accelerator. You push on that accelerator and your power is exposed. He is an accelerator for us. Cyril, I just can’t even tell you. I wish Mary was here. This award is in her name. I appreciate you honoring her by accepting the award and I absolutely don’t even know what else to say. So let’s just let him have the microphone.

Cyril Wecht: It’s a pleasure to be here and I am humbled by this award. I want to thank Debra Conway for the magnificent job that she has done in organizing this group that she designated as Lancer, bringing people together in these annual conferences with ongoing programs in between, to holding people together and to constantly keeping our minds and eyes and attention on the distant horizon and to helping us to keep our faith that one day we shall bring this matter to full disclosure and ultimate veracity and fruition. Debra has done a fantastic job and I thank her very much and for her gracious invitation to be here with you folks, and of course for this wonderful award which I did not know about.

Somehow Debra, it makes it more wonderful. I got a note from Debra’s co-editor. Debra, I’ll talk about this in a moment briefly, Debra’s co-editor of our CAPA newsletter with Bill Kelly, and Bill wrote me some stuff just about our next newsletter, having nothing to do with the conferences here but, and he said something about an award. And I was going through the material he sent me, making some changes and corrections and so on, and I wrote in parentheses, “Are you sure about this?” And then I heard more earlier today from my colleagues in CAPA. Well anyway, however it happened, it made it that much more magnificent. I just want to briefly say that this new organization, Citizens Against Political Assassinations, CAPA, the acronym of course, has been founded I think in this year toward the end of last year, and we are looking for people to join.

This is not in competition with any existing organization; rather we are looking to existing organizations such as Lancer and all the other groups that are dedicated and to achieving this ultimate goal for which we have fought so valiantly over the decades. But it is an organization which will be focusing on the political assassinations, but for right now JFK. In 1992, the United States Congress passed the JFK Records Act calling for the release of all the sequestered JFK materials in the tens of thousands, possibly hundreds of thousands of pages. I don’t think anybody really knows what is all there, for those to be released in 25 years. That will be October 2017. We are focused on that. So we need your input. We have the membership forms out there and we invite you to join to become active members, and to tell us what committee you might like to be on, and give us your expertise, your knowledge, your courage, your strength, and your hard work, your productivity.

As I said, Debra has been working very hard on this, and we’re delighted that she is now the co-editor of our newsletter. I’m sorry that we somehow got messed up on not bringing the first newsletter but we can make those available directly or through Debra. That’s not a big problem, but we’ll be in touch on that. But do keep that in mind, CAPA. And I want to stress the fact this is not in any way a competing organization. It is all of us together, focused specifically on right now the release of those records. We’re going to deal with Robert Kennedy. We’re going to deal with Martin Luther King. We’re going to deal with other matters, but this is our primary attention.

So let’s talk about JFK. I do have it, okay. I wanted to give you a chance to see all those other books too. By the way, and I’m not here to hustle books, but if any of you, I did want to remind anyone interested in the JonBenet Ramsey case, I published, I published… I wrote that book that was published with Charles Bosworth, who’s now become a good friend, he’s an excellent professional writer and a very professional person in his own field of… He was a former newspaper reporter for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and now with a major industrial company handling the PR. So Charlie and I wrote that book in 1998, Who Killed JonBenet Ramsey. And I was delighted earlier this year ­­­­–­­- so what is that, 1998? 18 years later ­-–­ to see this plethora of TV programs. I think there were four hours on CBS. Dr. Phil had a couple of our programs and so on. So anyone who’s interested, the book is being republished. It’s already out in e-form. We’re told it’s Amazon Kindle number two. It’s in audio form and in one week it will be in printed form. Who Killed JonBenet Ramsey. So anyone who’s interested in that, and while this is not a political conspiracy, it does involve political shenanigans. And not at the level of what we are addressing, but it shows you how politics get involved in this kind of case. In Elvis Presley, and Chandra Levy, and so many others. It’s fascinating just to think about that.

When I talk generally about all my cases touching upon all of them, I didn’t set out this way and I came to realize after a while that there was in most, not necessarily all, but in most a political common denominator. Ron Brown, Secretary of Commerce. Vincent Foster, White House legal counsel. And then these other cases too, and how they get manipulated by the politicians, by some governmental agency. Again, I’m not equating this with what we are dealing with here tonight, but I want to, the thought just came to me right now.

I don’t even know if I’ve mentioned this before, but the point I wish to make is, you know we’re very smug. We’re very chauvinistic. We’re very arrogant as Americans. It’s one thing to be proud of who we are. It’s another thing not to recognize that we have in our government, and it’s not Republican, Democrat, Liberal, Conservative. We have in our government many of the same things that go on in other countries of the world. They’re not as blatant. They’re not as vile and vicious. They’re not as obvious. They’re not picking people up off the street and throwing them in the concentration camps, or just killing them and so on. But in terms of what the government can do, in terms of the manipulation, in terms of the lies, the deceit, the cover-ups, they’re there and they’re not necessarily limited to major political assassinations at the national level. Just something to keep in mind.

My wife and I just came back from China. I’ve been to China three times before. My very dear friend and personal professional colleague, Dr. Henry C. Lee, he was honored by the Dr. Henry C. Lee Museum of Forensic Science, the first forensic science museum in the world. It’s established in Rugao, China, a city, small Chinese city, just about a million or so, about three hours north of Shanghai, and that’s where Henry was born and raised in the first few years. And I was invited to be one of the speakers there and I was highly honored and we had a magnificent time with top level officials there. And seeing the Chinese government and the people in the way they work, and the changes that have occurred since 1980, and had the opportunity to be in Russia, many other countries and so on, I can’t help but think that we have to be very much aware of what’s going on.

And nowhere is this more important; nowhere is it more identifiable than in the JFK assassination.

Our president gunned down right here in the streets of this great American city in broad daylight. And to this day, 53 years later, the government is still covering up. Yes, Gary correctly identified our opponents. Ah, nothing to be worried about, just The New York TimesThe Wall Street Journal, and all the other major news media. Just the federal government across the board. And then of course all of the, what did you call them, Gary? Debunkers? Was that your word? Um, a formidable array indeed.

Just give you a recent example. David Talbot, one of us, a major scholar, author, esteemed respected individual, wrote a magnificent book, if you haven’t read it, The Devil’s Chessboard, David Talbot. And The New York Times, when his publisher, when his agent called in to The New York Times, they told him boldly, blatantly, unabashedly, “We are not going to review this book! It’s that goddamn simple!” I stopped writing letters to the editor when they’ll have some article on JFK. There’ll be no coverage. There’ve been great conferences here over the years. We’ve had two major conferences in Pittsburgh, the Cyril Wecht Institute of Forensics and Law at Duquesne University, 2003 and 2013. No coverage at all whatsoever from The New York Times. This indeed is a formidable enemy, but Gary made one error, or a reference which is not quite correct in talking about wrong and right, black and white, and up and down and the other metaphors that he used. He referred to the majority. My friends, we are the majority! We are the majority. Not because I say this to make myself feel good and to seek obsequiously your solicitation and support, and applause, but I want you to know the hard facts. And you do know them. But remind yourselves of that and don’t hesitate the next time somebody comes up, the debunker or whatever the hell he is, the Warren Commission sycophant defender, self-appointed person, and gives you that business, “Oh you’re one of those conspiratorialists.” Screw you, buddy! 65 to 85% of the American public in one poll after another does not accept the Warren Commission report. Who is the majority?

I ask you this. You name me, think about this, and when you go home and you go the rest of the weekend doing whatever, you think of what other major concept, endeavor, entity, philosophical, political, governmental, you think of something out there which has had the support of 2/3 to 3/4 of the American public on a continuous basis, now, for four into five decades, which has not been ultimately accepted, which has not been moved into the place of primacy in whatever that particular field may be, whatever the particular subject may be. It is only this. It is only this, JFK, which they dare not touch. They are in a very difficult position, extremely difficult. And we are in an even more difficult position. Not precarious, not dangerous, but difficult because of the formidable odds we face.

So let’s just talk about the JFK assassination and refresh ourselves a little bit. You all know of course the background, and JFK coming to Dallas in 1963, political barnstorming. He was asked, he was advised, he was warned, he was urged not to go. Adlai Stevenson, twice Democratic nominee for the presidency of the United States of America, a magnificent individual, whether you voted or liked him or not, but I mean highly respected in every way, our UN ambassador, he was physically spat upon and jostled in the streets of this city, just a couple of weeks or so before Kennedy came. Kennedy’s people were fearful. I don’t think that they were thinking about assassination. I have no reason to suggest that. But they didn’t want an ugly scene.

Well, as it turned out, it was going to be a beautiful setting and scene. As the plane landed coming over from Fort Worth to Love Field, and the motorcade lined up and they moved into the city toward Dealey Plaza, the sun began to shine. The flags were flying. The crowds were cheering. The sun was shining. It was beautiful. And the last words that were ever directly and personally spoken to President Kennedy, Nellie Connally, sitting in front of Jackie Kennedy with her husband to her right, and Jackie Kennedy behind her, and the president behind the governor. Nellie Connally turned, as I’m turning now and said, “Mr. President, you can’t say that the people of Texas don’t love you.” Those were the last words that were spoken to John Kennedy. At 12:30 your time, as the cars then turned from Houston onto Elm, shots rang out, the president is hit, then Connally is hit, then Kennedy is hit again.

So here you have the layout. You know all that by memory. You’ve traversed it I’m sure many times in the past as I did again today with my colleague, Andrew Kreig, and walked around there in the parking area, and the picket fence, and the whole scene, and the huge crowds. I did an hour and a half interview, by the way, with the museum, and it’s now in the archives. The new archivist, new curator, Steve Fagan, whom I met for the first time, he invited me. Very nice gentleman, and it was a pleasure to meet him and to have this done, and to see him in place of the person who preceded him, who had once been one of us and who turned out to be a Benedict Arnold, the traitor, to put it mildly. So anybody has time, you can go there and watch it.

So, we see that, and you know the whole pergola, the whole layout. Okay, another shot, the 6th floor southeast corner window. Another close-up of that. And then here is some pieces from the Zapruder film. Watch it, watch it, watch it carefully. Just keep your eyes focused as the cars go behind and then come out from behind the Stemmons Freeway sign.

Here it is in slow motion. I want you to pay special attention to the relationship, physically of the president and the governor. Is that coming through? Look. And then I want you to see, the president was hit, moving violently backward and to the left.

There is a shot showing you how they sat and how they looked. And make note nothing different. You’ve seen political parades. I have, since I was a little boy in Pittsburgh. And Veterans Day, they used to have, they still do have, parades. Used to be called Armistice Day. And other major parades. And the local politicians. And just as here, the national politicians, you’re looking and waving at the crowd. Keep that in mind and I’ll touch upon that later. Okay, now here you see some shots and they come out from behind the Stemmons Freeway sign. And what I want to show you here is as we get closer and closer, I want you to see and pay special attention please, look at this shot. Notice…

Do I have a pointer here? Top button? Very good.

Notice the position of John Connally’s white Stetson hat. Please notice that, and look at his face. One more? No. Okay, look at his face. At this point in time under the single bullet theory, which Mark Lane and I and many others dubbed a long time ago, the magic bullet theory, this man has been shot through the chest, the lung has been pierced, 4 inches of the right fifth rib have been destroyed, the radius just above wrist level has been shattered, a comminuted fracture. Not a linear nondisplaced fracture. Comminuted, which means fragmented fracture. Bullet has reentered into his left thigh. Pretty tough guy. Pretty goddamn tough Texan, okay. I’m sorry I didn’t vote for him for president. Well, I couldn’t. I’m a Democrat and he was running in the Republican primary. But you keep that in mind.

Audience: Delayed reaction, sir.

Cyril: Delayed reaction… All right. Here, I want you to see this now. Here, now watch. We’re going into frame three, there’s a crimson burst, literally the explosion of the president’s head. And I want you to watch in the subsequent frames the movement of the president’s body. Backward, leftward, backward, leftward, backward. So much so that the motorcycle officer riding behind the president’s left rear wheel was certain for several seconds that he had been shot. He was covered with blood and brain tissue and other pieces of calvarium parts of the skull that struck him, all hitting in that direction.

Now what you’re looking at is the official diagram of the president, made by the pathologist at Bethesda. But let’s step back before we get to Bethesda. The cars are sped quickly to Parkland Hospital, the major trauma center. Some 18 physicians came there in a matter of minutes, many already assembled. Others drifting in as quickly as possible. And you should know this then, that 18 physicians included among whom was the chairman of the Department of Neurosurgery, Kemp Clark, a renowned neurosurgeon. How many brains he had operated on? In the thousands, undoubtedly. When the surgeons said to him, “Dr. Clark.” They probably called him Kemp. “Please assess this man.” His words, immortalized, were, “There is nothing that can be done to save this man.” And what did Clark see? And what did the other physicians see? Trauma surgeons who had seen people with head injuries, who were medical people, who had studied the brain.

But let’s talk about Clark and focus on him as a neurosurgeon and at that time, and his chief resident, Robert Grossman, who went on to become chief at Baylor, where my son, my second oldest son, trained for six years as a neurosurgeon some years ago. What did these two men see and say, and the others also? Every one of them! The rear part of the calvarium, the top part of your skull, the bony part called calvarium, the rear part of the occipital area, this is frontal forehead, temporal around the ears, occipital in the back and parietal on the top in between the others, okay. They talked about and described fractures of the occipital part of the calvarium. They talked about destructive damage blowing out of the cerebellum. The cerebellum, that part of the brain separate from the two cerebral hemispheres located posteriorly and inferiorly, as back and down at the bottom of your brain handling coordination and balance normally for us, they all described that, okay. Those are the descriptions made by those doctors.

Now at that point in time nobody knew Oswald, nobody knew Russia, nobody knew a goddamn thing. They were just doctors dealing with an injured person. Yes, he was the president, but nobody had any reason to do anything other than note that which was present. That’s all. Their innocence, they are people untarnished, uninfluenced at that point in time. What did they see? In Parkland here in Dallas, they saw a wound in front of the neck, and they saw then a big defect on the skull as I have described to you. There then ensued a very ugly situation. The local medical examiner, Dr. Earl Rose, who was a contemporary of mine, I had met Dr. Rose when I was in the Air Force and he was stationed elsewhere. And we were at the Armed Forces Institute for Forensic Pathology seminar. They used to have these seminars, symposiums, and I met Dr. Rose, and he was there to assume jurisdiction which is exactly what was supposed to have been done. Earl Rose was slammed up against the wall by the Feds, hands on guns, profanity threatened, and they took the body of the president illegally out of the city in violation of the laws of the city and county, and those of the state of Texas.

Well, here is the retrospective irony. That illegal act, as vile as it was, should have been used to the benefit of the government and all of us. Why? It gave them seven hours to put into place the number one team of forensic pathologists to do this autopsy, and all the time there’s no rush, there’s no hurry. Dr. Milton Helpern, the chief medical examiner of New York City, who was the dean of forensic pathologists in America at that time, he was packing his bag. I know this from Milton, we talked about this. He was packing his bag, not because he was an arrogant, conceited man, but he knew, he was head honcho, and he called two or three other forensic pathologists and asked them if they would be available to go and assist him. Just was no question that he would be called in to do this autopsy. Our president, right? Not you, not me, not your neighbor. Our president, multiple gunshot wounds. You’ve got to determine angle, range, trajectory, sequence, and then you’ve got to correlate with the wounds in Governor Connally.  This is, this is a real bitch. This is tough, baby, I want to tell you. When you get a multiple gunshot wound case and bullets are still inside the body, let alone trying to match it up with other things, animate and inanimate, this is a tough, tough conundrum.

Well, who did they call to do the autopsy at Bethesda that evening? Two career naval pathologists, Humes and Boswell. And you listen to this carefully because I want you to repeat this the next time you talk with somebody who tells you that the Warren Commission report is right. I want you to jam this down his throat and you let him know what he begins with was an evidentiary burden. What he is assuming, you let him know, that Humes and Boswell had never done a single gunshot wound autopsy in their entire careers. Not a single gunshot wound autopsy. I frequently like to toss out a hypothetical analogy, an analogous situation. Let us say that the president that day, when getting out of the shower, slipped and fell, and struck his head. And he obviously had a concussion. He was dazed and they had to determine whether or not there was anything there of a significant nature and so on. Under my hypothetical, hypothetical, how would you have felt as non-medical people if they had called in an obstetrician, a dermatologist, and a plastic surgeon to evaluate the president? Huh, okay?

I want to tell you something. I had four long good years of residency in pathology, two at the VA hospital in Pittsburgh under a top guy, two in the Air Force at the largest Air Force Base in the country. Four years. And when I finished four years, I didn’t know a goddamn thing about forensic pathology. I had never seen a single traumatic case except one airplane crash over Gunter Air Force Base, on the other side of Montgomery, Alabama. But I knew nothing about it. I had never seen a motor-vehicular accident. I had never seen a suicide. I had never seen a homicide. You don’t see these things when you are in pathology, in hospitals, you don’t see these. Those cases go to coroners and medical examiners. These guys had never even seen a single gunshot wound autopsy in their entire careers. What did they see that night?

Am I just being professionally demeaning because I’m offended as a forensic pathologist? Well, let’s see what they did and you decide for yourselves. They claim to have seen and found a separate smaller hole in the back of the head, and then a large blowout on the right side. And they then took off the corselet garment that Kennedy wore because of his World War II back injury, and they found a bullet hole several inches down, about five inches, five and half inches below the mastoid process. And they probed that wound in the back with their finger, a man’s index finger. Felt nothing. They took a metal probe, probed in, felt nothing, heard no metallic sound. Took x-rays, saw nothing. Did the autopsy, took out the lungs, looked in the thoracic cavity and found nothing. Now, I wasn’t there. You weren’t there. But just picture, picture you’re doing an autopsy on the President of the United States of America, and we came to learn, documented, some 33 people were in and out of that autopsy room that night, including four-star admirals and generals, FBI, and Secret Service, and you are there doing an autopsy, and you got a bullet hole, and you can’t find the goddamn bullet.

Well, as they were thinking about changing their underwear, some information came in from the FBI to the FBI here, from Dallas to DC, transmitted to them in Bethesda, that a maintenance man back in Parkland Hospital had to go to the bathroom. He had to urinate. Thank God, because as he was going by the ER and there were stretchers blocking the corridor, he bent down to move the stretcher and lo and behold there was a bullet. Whether it was on the stretcher and fell off, whether it was under the stretcher, you get different stories, but the point is there was this bullet, 6.5 mm copper jacketed lead core, 1 1/4 inch in length, ¼ of an inch in diameter, and there lay this bullet that nobody had seen before.

I’ve often wondered. It’s funny in a way if it weren’t such a serious matter. And I don’t know what would’ve happened if he didn’t have to take a piss then. I don’t know. I don’t know. I don’t know where. Well, I tell you, I do know. You can bet your ass that bullet was going to be found somewhere, that somebody… it was going to be found, okay. Well, that information given to the clowns at Bethesda that evening, while the body’s there, they seized upon it like a drowning man would seize upon a raft and said, “Ah, we know the answer. When the president lay supine on his back and the doctors applied pressure to the front of his chest for cardiac massage, they forced the bullet back out through the same channel and it fell out from his back.”

Well, it doesn’t work that way. See, if you were in Pittsburgh, we have these three large tunnels, I always do this, I don’t know of any tunnels down here. We have three large, long tunnels: Fort Pitt, Liberty and Squirrel Hill tunnels. I love to tell my audiences around there when I’m talking about JFK, which I did as recently as last night. I say, just picture yourself, folks, going into the Liberty tunnels and you decide when you’re in there, that you’re going in the wrong direction. So you put your car in reverse and you back out. Well, bullets don’t work that way. When the bullet slams into you, it produces hemorrhage, it produces immediate swelling of the tissues, edema, it becomes encased, engorged and held in place by fibrous tissue, whatever the tissue may be. They don’t move around and they sure as hell don’t go in and come back out through an open channel. It doesn’t work that way. But this is what they decided. This was a report that they turned in to the President and Hoover that night, Friday, November 22, 1963.

The next morning, they finally got around to speaking with the chief surgeon in Dallas and what did they learn? What did I tell you a few minutes ago? I know, it’s late in the evening, you’ve been here all day, you’re tired. How about the bullet hole in the front of the neck? Did I mention anything about that having been noted by the pathologists at Bethesda? Take a look at the person sitting next to you. Do you think that you would have to go four years of college, pre-med, four years of medical school and six years of pathology to see that the guy or the woman sitting next to you has blood coming out of an open hole in the front of his neck? What do you think? What do you think? You think you want to spend fourteen years to learn how to recognize that? Well, how could they have missed it?

Because the doctors at Parkland, in looking at the bullet wound that they saw, noted immediately that it had ripped through the trachea. When you have brain injury from stroke or hemorrhage, whatever and trauma and the brain’s not functioning, the brain is the boss. Ladies, forget Valentine’s Day and the heart in February, that’s sheer nonsense, okay. The brain is the boss. You got to take over the brain’s function. You got to take out CO2, you got to put in oxygen, you got to suction out blood and mucus in order to try to work on the wounds. In this case, it wouldn’t have made any difference, but that’s what you got to try to do. And so the doctors at Dallas had quite appropriately and correctly expanded that because the hole was too small to attach the cuff from the respirator machine, so they enlarged upon it.

These guys that did the autopsy that night, as totally inexperienced as they were and having failed to talk with the surgeons, which you always do as a coroner medical examiner forensic pathologist. When you have somebody who’s been shot or stabbed and been operated upon, you want to talk to the surgeons if at all possible, if time permits and they are available and they sure as hell would have been available and time permitted, in this case to ask them what they did. Because invariably, the surgeons will go through a gunshot wound or a stab wound. They want to get to the seat, to the etiology of the hemorrhage of the damage, of the trauma to the internal organs and tissues. And so you want to find out from them what they did, but they failed to do that. Now it’s Saturday morning and they learned about this tracheostomy and they learned that they missed a bullet hole. How do you handle that? What do you do?

I’ll tell you what you do. If you’re Asian, you commit suicide. You do, you do, believe me, believe me, I know, I know. And if you’re European, you resign and you go into seclusion. If you’re American, you just bullshit your way out of it. That’s the way. Everything’s in place. Oswald has been conveniently dispatched by Jack Ruby and we’re told in the Warren Commission by the way, that Jack Ruby just happened to be in the area sending some money to a former stripper of his through Western Union. Jack Ruby was this wonderful, gracious, generous human being. Of course it turns out he was Mafia from the age of 17, little Jacob Rubenstein in Chicago. Mafia.

Now, it is a matter of documented record. He was led into the basement by a high ranking police official. So, Oswald is gone and Monday, November 25, J. Edgar Hoover is already announcing to the world that the case is over. Lee Harvey Oswald is the sole assassin. He knows! I would be willing to wager you that the next time there is a murder in your community, wherever you are from, wherever city unless it’s something that is done in the open and there’s no question, people saw it but if there’s any murder in which they have to look around and question people, and so on and so forth, I’ll make a wager with any of you that you will not get a pronouncement from your local law enforcement agency whether you’re from East Podunkville or West Overshoe, I don’t care where you’re from. You will not get a public statement from them in 48 hours… in 72 hours saying that the case is over.

But J. Edgar Hoover, he already knew by Monday that nobody else was involved but Oswald. How the hell can you know that? You got a man that you have quickly ascertained, has spent two and a half years in Russia, has married the niece of a KGB colonel and that background and everything, but you know that nobody else was involved? No matter what we believe today, no matter what we know, no matter even the people who believe in the Warren Commission report, is there anybody here, anybody that you know who would be willing to say “Hey man, there’s no question that they were able to arrive at that conclusion by Monday”? How in the world? Goes to show you, my friends, what was involved here. How the game was being played and keep these things in mind.

Okay, so this is the sketch of the President; their official drawing at Bethesda. There’s the famous death stare. That’s just showing a fragment, I want to move on. This is the diagram of Connally. Now, look please, look. There is the original entrance, right posterior axillary, which means in simple terms, behind the right armpit. Here is the exit wound, here is the re-entrance wound in the wrist, here is the re-exit wound on the front of the wrist and here’s the final resting place in the thigh.

So, what is the single bullet theory given to us by Arlen Specter, then junior legal counsel, later to become senior US Senator in the commonwealth of Pennsylvania? I don’t say this to dump posthumously on Specter, as a matter of fact, we became quite good friends. I even came out for him in 2004, he asked me if I would support him. He, a Republican, I had been very active in Democratic politics and I did come out for Arlen Specter in 2004 and had a big press conference and I helped him undoubtedly, I think, in his reelection. I did the same thing in 2010, but he lost in the Democratic primary, he had switched parties, so I’m not doing this to dump on Specter, but Specter was the creator of the single bullet theory.

Here’s the setting. They have gotten the murder weapon, a Mannlicher-Carcano, considered by every long gun expert I’ve ever spoken to as the most inferior weapon of its genre developed anywhere in the world. In 1971 or ’72, we had done a medical legal program I put together with the Institute of Legal Medicine in Rome in ’65 and we got along so very well, they invited me to come back and do it again, I think in ’72. They asked me at that time then to speak on the Kennedy assassination because by that time, I had spoken out quite a bit on it. I spoke to this distinguished group, they were all older than I, distinguished professors whom I had met before, these wonderful gentlemen and ladies and when I spoke about the single bullet theory and I spoke about the Mannlicher-Carcano, I saw some of them giggling and looking at each other and so on, I felt so bad. I felt my God, what the hell did you say?

So when it was over, I went to the new director Silvio Merli and I said, “Silvio…”  – he spoke good English – I said, “I felt so bad, did I say something that was wrong or insulting in any way?” He says, “No, no you don’t understand. The Mannlicher-Carcano, which had been developed in Italy going into World War II, the Mannlicher-Carcano is considered,” said he, “as an instrument of love, not a weapon of war.” They got the best marksman they could find to see how long it took to shoot this weapon. You shoot, you unload, you reload without allowing for re-aiming and repositioning, without allowing for accuracy, shooting from a platform built in an open field. How long did it take, the best marksman they could find to shoot? 2.3 seconds, okay. Fine, that’s what it is.

But along came something known as the Zapruder film. Abraham Zapruder, a woman’s clothing merchant here in Dallas, he bought a brand new 8mm Bell & Howell camera and he went that day to Dealey Plaza and he stood on the parapet coming down from the pergola, his secretary braced this elderly gentleman’s leg and he started his camera rolling as the cars turned from Houston to come down Elm Street. And that Zapruder film, you all know of course how valuable it is as a piece of evidence, invaluable as it was to the Zapruder family. The FBI and the Bell Howell people examined that film and they all agreed that 18.3 frames move through the camera per second. Now, most of you are old enough but there are some younger people here that don’t know about the old-fashioned films. But those of us who are over 50 remember in high school, you took the film and you threaded it on the metal things, so each one of those things is called a frame, and then turns into a picture. In fact, when you go to an amusement park, I know you must have it here as we do in Pittsburgh and you want to see the old-fashioned films back in the 1910s and early ‘20s, Buster Keaton and Charlie Chaplin, who knows what, and you put in your coin or whatever it is and you begin to turn the crank, you’re looking at picture after picture. When you go real fast, you begin to make a movie and that’s of course, how movies are made – the frames.

And they blew these up into large pictures and now knowing that 18.3 frames per second, and you’re studying the assassination of the president. The murder of a human being killed by multiple gunshot wounds and the wounding of another person and you are moving as I did a year and a half later at Life Magazine headquarters with Dr. Josiah “Tink” Thompson, who invited me to come with him to Life Magazine headquarters; that they had purchased the Zapruder film from Abraham Zapruder and there I was doing it as they had done a year and half earlier in a room almost the size of this room, in large x-ray view boxes turned up this way and you go from frame to frame, picture to picture and you move 1/18th of a second from frame to frame.

There’s not a word you can utter, there’s not a thought you can entertain, there’s not a movement you can make 18 times in one second, but you can study the assassination of John F. Kennedy at 1/18th second intervals. Now, when they did that, they had one hell of a problem because it’s clear that John Connally was struck 1.5 seconds after Kennedy was hit the first time and there’s no disagreement on that. 1.5 seconds, how could that be? How could that be? If it takes the best marksman they could find and Oswald was not known to be such an outstanding marksman by any means, having flunked his test the first time in the US Marines, barely passing score the second time around, his colleagues and friends with whom he hunted a little bit in Russia and elsewhere said that he was nothing at all when it came to shooting, how could he have done it in 1.5 seconds? And that is what gave birth to the single bullet theory.

There, close your eyes, picture yourself at the table, none of us was there. How do you deal with this seemingly impossible, not only formidable, but seemingly impossible physical incongruity between the timing of the shooting of the Mannlicher-Carcano and the Zapruder film? How do you put them together? And that’s when Arlen Specter said: “Aha, what if one bullet caused all of these wounds? Not the head wounds, forget about the head wounds. What if one bullet went into Kennedy, came out of Kennedy, went into Connally’s chest, out his chest, into Connally’s wrist, out his wrist and into his left thigh?” And that is the single bullet theory, okay.

Here, I’m going to do this. Larry, bring your chair up here. No, we’ll do it right here. Sir, bring your chair over here and sit in front of Mr. Schnapf.  Larry Schnapf, by the way, is one of the board of the directors of our CAPA organization, okay. Mr. President and Mr. Governor, two and a half feet, thirty inches between chest and back, here is the single bullet theory. Fired from up there, see that sixth floor, there it is, look at that, up there towards the exit sign. It’s coming from back to front, it’s going from right to left and it’s going from up downward. It comes in, hits Kennedy down here, down below the shoulder about five inches and exits from the front of his neck; it’s an eleven-and-a-half-degree upward angle!

You know how my colleagues in the Forensic Pathology Panel of the House Select Committee on Assassinations handled that? They said, well what if Kennedy were bent over like this? I said yeah, you know what, look at the Zapruder film and you will not find the President tying his shoelace or scratching his groin. That’s not what he was doing! So you got an upward angle of eleven and a half degrees to begin with – no, turn around Mr. Governor – the bullet continues to come downward, forward and leftward. If it had cut Connally over here, maybe we wouldn’t be talking that well, you know… The bullet comes in mid-air, turns about 18 inches and slams into him over here in the right posterior axillary area. Then, it proceeds through his chest, perforates the lung, destroys four inches of the right fifth rib, exits below the nipple level – you saw the diagram.

The Governor, this is your wife’s destiny, governor. This is where the Stetson hat is in the Zapruder film. Don’t do what I tell you. You got eyes. Go and study it yourself! This is where the Stetson hat was. The bullet comes out below nipple level, it comes back up and around and hits him behind the back of the wrist, produces a comminuted fracture of the radius, which by the way is a broad bone. The radius broadens just before it meets the small eight bones of the wrist – it broadens. You’re talking about a six foot four, big boned Texan, John Connally. It produces a comminuted fracture, exits from the front of the wrist, goes down into the left thigh. You like that? That’s the single bullet theory. Thank you, Governor, thank you.

So you see why Mark Lane and I and others call it the magic bullet, because it readily and happily obliges you anything you want. On Friday night of the autopsy, the bullet is from Kennedy’s back. On Saturday morning of November 23, the bullet is from Kennedy’s neck. It saw the starched white color, got frightened to death and just plopped down into his shirt. And then five months later with the Warren Commission, under the single bullet theory, the bullet is now from Connally’s left thigh. You’re with me? That’s 399, that’s the magic bullet.

Understand this my friends; the single bullet theory is a sine qua non of the Warren Commission’s Report conclusion vis-à-vis the sole assassin. Without the single bullet theory, you’ve got two people shooting. You cannot have one shooter. Not that all the other things that many of you here today and the other conferences that have taken place over the years and all the people who’ve done splendid work in investigating every aspect of this case from beginning to end, they are to be praised. I do not denigrate or diminish their work at all. But what I’m saying is you don’t reach that point. Who is Oswald, CIA? You don’t reach that! If you don’t have the single bullet theory, you got two shooters! You got two shooters, you got a conspiracy! Under the laws of every state and the federal government, two of us planning together. I may be the one rapes the girl, but you knew about it and you drove me there and waited for me. You and I, maybe I went in and robbed the bank and you just waited for me. You are a conspirator. When you got conspirators, then you got to open up that door. And once you open up door one, baby, what does it lead to? How many other doors does it open? That is the government’s problem! Do you understand that?

I was asked when I spoke last night in a community outside Pittsburgh by some intelligent people, why can’t they say that there was another shooter? You can’t. You’re pregnant or you’re not pregnant. You got a single bullet theory, and then you can go on. Oh, we can blow up the Warren Commission Report as far as I’m concerned in many other ways but what I’m saying to you is that you don’t even get there unless you have a single bullet theory.

This is a bullet being held up. This is an actual fragment of the bullet. This bullet, in store bought condition weighted 161 grains as it was found to weigh 158.6 grains. A loss of 2.4 grains, mathematically believe me, it is exactly 1.5%. So what we’re told is that the fragments that Connally took to the grave with him, we tried to get those to Attorney General Janet Reno who did try, contacted FBI, not only Connally refused. I spoke with the chief OR nurse, Audrey Bell many years ago. I called her up and she was very nice and gracious and I forget exactly how I got to the questions and she told me that there were several fragments of metal given to her by the surgeons who operated on John Connally, which she turned over to the FBI. So those fragments,  and the fragments that he took to the grave in three anatomical locations, we’re told that all of them collectively weighed only 1.5% of the bullet. No way in the world! And then we were told that one of the fragments matched the single bullet 399 to the exclusion of all of the bullets. That has been totally, totally repudiated in this marvelous paper by Dr. Randlich [Editor: J. Forensic Sci. Vol.51 No.4] and others, won’t dwell on that, just take my word for it. This is the trajectory, up and down, okay? Here it is.

[Trying to show something here, slides, but doesn’t work]

Alright, here is the bullet. The bullet, completely pristine. The only deformity: at the base of the bullet from the impact of the firing mechanism. Look at the cone, the nose of the bullet after having struck two large bones, completely intact. This slight indentation is where the FBI took a piece of metal, properly for spectrographic analysis. Completely intact!  And I’ve talked to you about the weight of the bullet. Now there was somebody on the Warren Commission, I don’t know who, who said “Hey, let’s do a scientific experiment. Isn’t that what you’re supposed to do? Let’s see what would happen”, and they got three sets of targets. The first set were cotton wadding. You shoot the bullet in the cotton wadding striking nothing, so there’s nothing to impact and deform the bullet. What will the bullet look like just having been fired from the gun? Then they got goat carcasses and they lined them up to break a rib of a goat to simulate Connally’s rib fracture. And then they got human cadavers and lined them up to shoot through the radius to simulate Connally’s radial fracture.

This is their experiment. If God or whoever is in charge of the universe said to me, you got to give up everything you own Wecht on the Kennedy assassination, I mean every everything; I mean every letter, I mean every memo, I don’t care. Every article, every book, everything in the world, no matter where it came from, when you got it, everything! I’m going to allow you to keep one thing and one thing only, not a set of things, but one thing. This is what I keep. And it’s not mine! I didn’t create it, I had nothing to with it. This is the government’s! And so, as I like to say to audiences: ladies and gentlemen of the jury, I am the prosecutor. You’ve been sitting here patiently for six, seven weeks listening to this case. I don’t want to keep you any longer than necessary.

His Honor will give you instructions, but I do want to just recapitulate some of the highlights. I’ve sat here, as my learned colleague defending the defendant, that guy Oswald over there, and my learned colleague has in deprecating, denigrating fashion made comments about, what he smugly referred to as the magic bullet theory, which we have presented to you of course, and which is very critical to our case. And so I just want to refresh your memories and your minds because you’ve been here so long and let me show you this vital piece of evidence which we the government produced!

And look! If a bullet that goes through cotton  ­­­­­­­­­­­­– what the he­ll is going on here? Goddamn government will stop at nothing –­­­­ alright, I’m not going to use the pointer. If a bullet that goes in the cotton wadding can look like this; look at the base, little deformity, right? And a bullet that breaks a rib can look like this, almost looks like a different caliber, it’s the same…deformity, and a bullet that breaks a radius can look like this, is there anybody amongst you, ladies and gentlemen of the jury, does anybody have a doubt for one moment? Is there any basis for any hesitation whatsoever that if a bullet that breaks both a rib and a rib can look like this? This is 399, this is the bullet, this is the government’s slide, this is what they got to live with, they go to trial. This is 399! This your goddamn evidence, you did the experiments! This is your rib fracture; this is your radius fracture! You’re telling us that the two of them together somehow got back in order to look like this, huh?

Alright, so I’m going to close by telling you how I got started in this very, very quickly. In 1964, I was assistant district attorney medical advisor to the district attorney and I would spend most of my time in the crime lab. Charlie McAnarney became a good friend, head of the crime lab and he said to me one day, he was in the program committee of the American Academy of Forensic Scientists, the largest and most prestigious group of forensic scientists in the world – he said: “Cyril, how would you like to represent the academy in the pathology section? The academy meets every year, the third week of February and each of the sections, pathology, toxicology, psychiatry, criminalistics, odontology, entomology, anthropology, nursing, they all meet separately and then they all have one big plenary session and they try to pick a subject that will be of interest to as many of the groups as possible. As so understandably, going into February of ’65, you’re the program chair, what would you select? The Warren Commission just came out, later September, October of ’64, there’s no question about that. So I said: “Sure Charlie.”

So I went to the Carnegie Library. We have this magnificent library in Pittsburgh and there were the 26 volumes to show you what the government had in mind from the very beginning – 26 volumes, okay? I pick up the books to look at the index, I want to get to the autopsy and the medical stuff, there ain’t no index, baby, there ain’t no index. 26 volumes. Sylvia Meagher, a magnificent woman who wrote this wonderful book Accessories After the Fact, on her own, a single woman living in an apartment in downtown Manhattan working at the UN before computers were ever even dreamed of. Sylvia Meagher put together an index which is still used today, but the federal government, no, no, no index, okay?

So what I want to tell you, friends, as we conclude, is that this is the story, this is the background, you’ve heard from all of these wonderful people, you’ve heard the poignant words that Debra has given to you and others of the challenge that lies ahead. We got to keep fighting this battle. We got to keep in mind what it’s about because, as they quickly ascertained, it wasn’t the Russians, it wasn’t the Chinese, it wasn’t the Cubans. We have met the enemy and he is us.

They quickly realized, they knew what they were dealing with and we have to keep that in mind and people sometimes ask, you know, what does it mean, what is the importance, what is the significance, why should we continue in this very turbulent, controversial battle? Because we are Americans who believe in justice, who believe that governments should not be overthrown because some people in position of authority and power decide to get rid of the ruler and everywhere in the world where this kind of thing has happened, where a prime minister, a king, a premier has been killed, has been assassinated, we in our American arrogance do not hesitate for one moment to label it for what it was. We recognize it as a political assassination, we recognize it as the overthrow of the government and that is what the Kennedy assassination was in this country.

They were looking at five more years of Jacky, followed by eight years of Bobby – thirteen years is a lifetime in the political evolution of a country. This is not  where we get into the last quarter of the basketball game or the third period of the hockey game or the ninth inning of the baseball game. Thirteen years, you can make a country move in any goddamn direction that you want to and that is exactly what happened.

Kennedy, in their eyes, doing what he was doing, human rights, civil rights, voting rights, getting out of Vietnam, angered about the Bay of Pigs fiasco, claiming that he would destroy the CIA, ripping up a piece of paper, throwing it into the air when he was meeting with Senator Mike Mansfield and saying “this is what I intend to do to the CIA.” It was running amuck. Its own government, get rid of  Arbenz in Guatemala, get rid of Allende in Chile, get rid of the Diem brothers in Vietnam, anything that they wanted, they made the decision what was good for America because those people believe that when they see the flag flying and they hear the Star Spangled Banner, they see and hear something that we average, normal Americans, as loyal as we may be, we just fail to fully understand, to fully recognize what is necessary for America.

That is the arrogance of these people and that is why we must fight to make sure that it never happens again because what we witnessed in what was the assassination of President Kennedy, my friends, in plain, plain English was coup d’état in America, the overthrow of the government. That’s what this case was all about. Thank you.

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The Flynn Conundrum

February 19th, 2017 by Renee Parsons

By now, much of the American public is aware that President Trump’s National Security Advisor (ret) Lt. General Michael Flynn resigned and/or was fired because of conversations held with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak on December 29th  and following Flynn’s admissions had he had “inadvertently briefed” Vice President Mike Pence with “incomplete information.”  

The supposition is that Flynn “discussed” sanctions against Russia with the Ambassador during those conversations and then neglected to inform Pence that the subject had been “discussed”.

One question right off the top is if the President fired Flynn, why did the General submit a letter of resignation on February 13th?

Coincidentally, the Flynn-Kislyak telephone calls occurred on the same day the Obama administration announced new sanctions against Russia and the day after President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a lengthy telephone conversation.

The fact is that reaching out to the international community is standard diplomatic procedure for any incoming administration to initiate and came while Barack Obama was still President with John Brennan and James Clapper still in charge of the administration’s intel programs.

What is not standard procedure, however, is that the ‘leak’ of those intercepted  classified conversations to the Washington Post’s David Ignatius, long believed to be a favored CIA reporter, was  in violation of the US code that protects classified information and its participant (CRS).  Ignatius broke the story on January 12th in the WaPo, and sometime after the Inauguration on January 20th  and before Jeff Sessions was approved as Attorney General, the FBI interviewed Flynn.

On January 26th, Acting Attorney General Sally Yates, a holdover from the Obama Administration, informed WH counsel Donald McGahn that sanctions had been ‘discussed” and that Flynn might be a target of blackmail by the Russians.

However, until the text (or a portion thereof) of the offending conversation is publicly released, we do not have the facts to indicate that Flynn lied or did anything improper or illegal.  It is difficult to believe that Flynn, who had decades worth of intelligence experience  with the routine handling of top secret, highly classified documents was not aware that he was being monitored and that he would not have watched every word he uttered.

As Eli Lake summed up in a Bloomberg article:

One White House official with knowledge of the conversations told me that the Russian Ambassador raised the sanctions to Flynn and that Flynn responded that the Trump team would be taking office in a few weeks and would review Russian policy and sanctions.  That’s neither illegal nor improper.

All of which leads one to wonder about the definition of ‘discussion.”   If the word ‘sanction’ was mentioned as Lake’s source indicates, does that constitute a discussion – or is discussion more of a give-and-take conversation or colloquy that ultimately constitutes a dialogue?

In an act that President Trump may already have come to regret by accepting  Flynn’s resignation, the President signaled, contrary to his publicly brash persona,  what an easy roll he can be, similar to the effete Barack Obama.   With a White House short on dealing with hard-ball, bare-knuckles, big league politics, the President has opened the door for continued illegal “leaks” as he can expect his closest aides to be picked off.

At Thursdays press conference, the President indicated he had been told there was no wrong doing other than not being straight with the Vice President.  We do not yet have enough details to understand who, what, why, when and where that only a reading of the transcript (which would need to be declassified) might satisfy.  Clearly, there is a piece missing; the story still does not quite mesh into a logical unfolding of events.

The fact that Flynn, while a strident opponent of Iran, was the President’s point man on re-engagement with Russia as well as redefining the country’s foreign policy goals makes his dismissal somewhat of a mixed bag.   Nevertheless, whatever baggage Flynn may have brought to the White House was far superior to the assorted corruptions of HRC and, as we know see, the unscrupulous Democratic Party.

According to reports, the confidential conversation was monitored and taped by the NSA which then shared the classified information widely with high level government officials; from there it was illegally ‘leaked’ to the Washington Post and other media outlets for public dissemination; thereby creating a felonious criminal matter.

As details of Flynn’s dismissal continue to evolve, it is not surprising that the corporate and CIA-tainted MSM joined forces with a group of dissident Obama staffers led by Ben Rhodes as well as enfeebled Congressional Democrats in plotting Flynn’s demise even before the Inauguration.   Despite the Democrats on- going hysteria about Russian involvement in the 2016 election and Flynn’s Russian liaison, a main objection to Flynn was to stop him from revealing secret elements of the Obama Administration Iran deal that would embarrass the former President whose thin legacy depends on maintaining the agreement intact.

In response to the public revelation of illegal ‘leaks’ of classified data leading up to Flynn’s resignation, two House Committee Chairs have requested the Department of Justice to conduct a formal investigation including whether the status of  a formal FISA court intercept application.   The question is wheether the Republicans will pursue an inquiry into the source of the leaks with the same fervor they pursued Benghazi.

In citing this was not a time for petty partisanship, former Rep Dennis Kucinich  indicated that “the White House is under attack from rogue elements within the US intel community” and that the President must act forthrightly to identify what may be treasonous sources of repeated leaks within intelligence that have occurred since January 20th.

At Thursday’s press conference, the President indicated he had requested the Department of Justice to conduct a criminal investigation into the leaks and identity of the leakers.

As Flynn’s conversation came to light and pressure began to mount on whether he had assured the Russians that American sanctions would be lifted, it was reported that both White House Senior Advisors Kellyanne Conway and Steven Bannon recommended that Flynn continue as NSA while Republican establishmentarians Chief of Staff Reince Preibus reportedly push for Flynn’s ouster was joined by Vice President Mike Pence who was “very angry’ with Flynn after having  misinformed the Sunday morning news based on Flynn’s earlier assurances..

As the vanquished Democrats, desperate to find an advantage, focus on investigating Flynn’s ties with Russia, there is nary a mention of  Israel’s influence on US foreign policy even though a ‘requirement’ of any new member of Congress is to sign AIPAC’s Loyalty Pledge to Israel as well as to participate in a free trip to Israel.

Despite what expects to be a series of continuous frantic attempts by assorted Deep State players to derail the Trump administration from opening the way for rapprochement with Russia, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met for the first time at the G20 meeting in Germany.  Topics discussed included the wars in Afghanistan, Syria, the Ukraine as both diplomats ‘reaffirmed their common interest against terrorism’ and described their conversation as ‘productive’.

While observing the Trump administration’s first tumultuous month in office, Lavrov (and  his boss) are both shrewd enough to keep their cards close.

As if in response to widespread concerns about the intel community sabotaging a duly democratically President, Wikileaks released a series of CIA Espionage Orders revealing the agency’s efforts to interfere and influence the 2012 French Presidential election.

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Palestine: Our Response to Trump Regarding Israel’s Illegal Settlements

February 19th, 2017 by Palestine Solidarity Campaign

This week Donald Trump appeared to abandon US support for a 2 state solution during an incoherent and ambiguous press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Yet the intentions of Netanyahu and his coalition partners are perfectly clear. Since the UN passed Resolution 2334, which called upon Israel to cease settlement building, Israel has responded by announcing the building of 6000 more settlement units and passing the so-called “Regularization Bill”, legalising settlements built on privately owned Palestinian land.

These actions, and Netanyahu’s comments at the press conference, make clear that Israel intends to proceed at pace with settler-colonialism and intends to deny all claims to Palestinian self determination. 

Israeli Education Minister Naftali Bennett put it concisely in his tweeted response to Trump’s press conference: “the Palestinian flag has been taken off the flagpole and was replaced with the Israeli flag”.

So how do we respond to these developments?

Firstly, we reaffirm that it is for Palestinians to decide how they wish their right to self determination to be enacted.

Secondly we reaffirm that a respect for human rights and equality under the law demands a recognition that no democratic state can privilege the rights of one group of citizens over another based on ethnicity, culture or religion. If there is to be one state then the choice is clear- apartheid, or equal rights in a single democratic state.

Thirdly that it is only pressure from outside in the form of the Boycott Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement that will shift decision-making inside Israel.

On Feb 11th, I spoke at a rally of over 40000 people rallying in opposition to Donald Trump and the plans for him to have a state visit to the UK. My message was clear. Those rallying against Trump’s misogyny, against his ban on Muslims travelling to the UK and his racist rhetoric towards Mexicans and other minorities share common cause with us in our campaign against the racism which underpins Israel’s treatment of the Palestinian people.

As the day’s most popular chant had it: “from Palestine to Mexico, racist walls have to go”.

Netanyahu believes the advent of the Trump administration means he can expect the world to stand idly by whilst Palestinian rights are trampled and an apartheid state is entrenched. Our task, day-by-day, week-by-week, is to prove him wrong.

Israeli Apartheid Week

The above are messages that students across the UK – supported by PSC, War on Want and other organisations – will take to their campuses, in scores of events being organised as part of Israeli Apartheid Week (IAW). Please see the IAW website for an event near you. If you are in a student group and are planning events for IAW, please contact us for free materials.

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Trump said he wants to cooperate with Russia in combating terrorism in Syria. Defense Secretary Mattis rejects the idea.

In Brussels at NATO headquarters, he claimed “(w)e are not in a position right now to collaborate on a military level, but our political leaders will engage and try to find common ground or a way forward so that Russia, living up to its commitment, can return to a partnership of sorts here with NATO.”

Russia’s aggressive actions have violated international law and are destabilizing. (It has) to prove itself first. The point about Russia is they have to live by international law just like we expect all nations on this planet to do.

Separately, Rex Tillerson said “we expect Russia to honor its commitments to the Minsk agreements and work to de-escalate violence in Ukraine. Where we do not see eye-to-eye, the United States will stand up for the interests and values of America and her allies.”

These type comments aren’t encouraging, sounding like Carter Ashton and John Kerry never left.

Wars raging in multiple theaters are Washington’s doing, not Russia’s, going all-out to resolve them in Syria and Ukraine diplomatically.

Actions by America, NATO, Israel and other regional rogue states flagrantly violate international law. Russia is the world’s preeminent peacemaker.

Hostile comments by Mattis and Tillerson run counter to Trump’s rhetoric. Is he saying one thing while pursuing another?

Is Washington’s imperial agenda safe in his hands? Will endless US wars continue unabated? Will new ones be launched?

Will adversarial relations toward Russia, China and all other sovereign independent nations remain official US policy?

Will the horrors of the last 24 years continue at home and abroad? Is Trump the latest in a long line of US warrior presidents?

Is catastrophic nuclear war on his watch possible? Humanity holds its breath.

A Final Comment

Russia hope two rounds of Syria peace talks in Astana, Kazakhstan boost chances for significant progress toward conflict resolution when all parties involved meet in Geneva on February 23.

Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov called Astana a “platform” for continuing dialogue next week.

Three previous Geneva rounds failed because Washington undermined them. It remains to be seen if Trump wants war or peace.

It’s unclear where Turkey stands. It illegally occupies part of northern Syria. On Thursday, Syria’s chief peace talks negotiator Bashar al-Jaafari accused Ankara and opposition representatives of “disrupt(ing) the Astana meetings.”

They prevented adoption of a final communique, he said, showing an “irresponsible attitude” toward the proceedings.

Turkey sent a low-level delegation to Astana, arriving late, calling into question its commitment to conflict resolution.

Jaafari also demanded Erdogan withdraw Turkish troops operating illegally in Syrian territory, saying his regime “cannot simultaneously start fires and then act like a firefighter.”

Conflict resolution in Syria is nowhere near being achieved. Much depends on Trump’s intentions as they become better known. Early signs aren’t encouraging.

Stephen Lendman lives in Chicago. He can be reached at [email protected]

His new book as editor and contributor is titled “Flashpoint in Ukraine: How the US Drive for Hegemony Risks WW III.”

http://www.claritypress.com/LendmanIII.html

Visit his blog site at sjlendman.blogspot.com

Listen to cutting-edge discussions with distinguished guests on the Progressive Radio News Hour on the Progressive Radio Network.

 

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The Flynn fiasco is not about national security advisor Michael Flynn’s conversations with the Russian ambassador. It’s much deeper than that. It’s about Russia. It’s about Putin. It’s about the explosive rise of China and the world’s biggest free trade zone that will eventually stretch from Lisbon to Vladivostok.  It’s about the one country in the world that is obstructing Washington’s plan for global domination. (Russia) And, it’s about the future; which country will be the key player in the world’s most prosperous and populous region, Asia.

That’s what’s at stake, and that’s what the Flynn controversy is really all about.

Many readers are familiar with the expression “pivot to Asia”, but do they know what it means?

It means the United States has embarked on an ambitious plan to extend its military grip and market power over the Eurasian landmass thus securing its position as the world’s only superpower into the next century. The pivot is Washington’s top strategic priority. As Hillary Clinton said in 2011:

“Harnessing Asia’s growth and dynamism is central to American economic and strategic interests… Open markets in Asia provide the United States with unprecedented opportunities for investment, trade, and access to cutting-edge technology…..American firms (need) to tap into the vast and growing consumer base of Asia…

The region already generates more than half of global output and nearly half of global trade…. we are looking for opportunities to do even more business in Asia…and our investment opportunities in Asia’s dynamic markets.”(“America’s Pacific Century”, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton”, Foreign Policy Magazine, 2011)

In other words, it’s pivot or bust. Those are the only two options. Naturally, ruling elites in the US have chosen the former over the latter, which means they are committed to a strategy that will inevitably pit the US against a nuclear-armed adversary, Russia.

Trump’s National Security Advisor, Michael Flynn, wanted to normalize relations with Russia. He rejected the flagrantly hostile approach of the US foreign policy establishment. That’s why he had to be removed. And, that’s why he’s been so viciously attacked in the media and why the threadbare story about his contacts with the Russian ambassador were used to force his resignation.

This isn’t about the law and it isn’t about the truth. It’s about bare-knuckle geopolitics and global hegemony. Flynn got in the way of the pivot, so Flynn had to be eliminated. End of story. Here’s a clip from an article by Robert Parry:

“Flynn’s real “offense” appears to be that he favors détente with Russia rather than escalation of a new and dangerous Cold War. Trump’s idea of a rapprochement with Moscow – and a search for areas of cooperation and compromise – has been driving Official Washington’s foreign policy establishment crazy for months and the neocons, in particular, have been determined to block it.

Though Flynn has pandered to elements of the neocon movement with his own hysterical denunciations of Iran and Islam in general, he emerged as a key architect for Trump’s plans to seek a constructive relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Meanwhile, the neocons and their liberal-interventionist sidekicks have invested heavily in making Putin the all-purpose bête noire to justify a major investment in new military hardware and in pricy propaganda operations.” (“Trump Caves on Flynn’s resignation“, Consortium News)

US foreign policy is not developed willy-nilly. It emerges as the consensus view of various competing factions within the permanent national security state.  And, although there are notable differences between the rival factions (either hardline or dovish) there appears to be unanimity on the question of Russia. There is virtually no constituency within the political leadership of either of the two major parties (or their puppetmaster supporters in the deep state) for improving relations with Russia. None. Russia is blocking Washington’s eastward expansion, therefore, Russia must be defeated. Here’s more from the World Socialist Web Site:

“US imperialism seeks to counter its declining world economic position by exploiting its unchallenged global military dominance. It sees as the principal roadblocks to its hegemonic aims the growing economic and military power of China and the still-considerable strength of Russia, possessor of the world’s second-largest nuclear arsenal, the largest reserves of oil and gas, and a critical geographical position at the center of the Eurasian land mass.

Trump’s opponents within the ruling class insist that US foreign policy must target Russia with the aim of weakening the Putin regime or overthrowing it. This is deemed a prerequisite for taking on the challenge posed by China.

Numerous Washington think tanks have developed scenarios for military conflicts with Russian forces in the Middle East, in Ukraine, in the Baltic States and in cyberspace. The national security elite is not prepared to accept a shift in orientation away from the policy of direct confrontation with Russia along the lines proposed by Trump, who would like for the present to lower tensions with Russia in order to focus first on China.” (“Behind the Flynn resignation and Trump crisis: A bitter conflict over imperialist policy“, WSWS)

Foreign policy elites believe the US and its NATO allies can engage Russia in a shooting war without it expanding into a regional conflict and without an escalation into a nuclear conflagration. It’s a risky calculation but, nevertheless, it is the rationale behind the persistent build up of troops and weaponry on Russia’s western perimeter. Take a look at this from the Independent:

Thousands of Nato troops have amassed close to the border with Russia as part of the largest build-up of Western troops neighbouring Moscow’s sphere of influence since the Cold War…Tanks and heavy armoured vehicles, plus Bradley fighting vehicles and Paladin howitzers, are also in situ and British Typhoon jets from RAF Conningsby will be deployed to Romania this summer to contribute to Nato’s Southern Air Policing mission…

Kremlin officials claim the build-up is the largest since the Second World War. (“The map that shows how many Nato troops are deployed along Russia’s border“, The Independent)

Saber-rattling and belligerence have cleared the way for another world war. Washington thinks the conflict can be contained, but we’re nor so sure.

The inexperienced Trump– who naively believed that the president sets his own foreign policy–has now learned that that’s not the case. The Flynn slap-down,  followed by blistering attacks in the media and threats of impeachment, have left Trump shaken to the core. As a result, he has done a speedy about-face and swung into damage control-mode. On Tuesday, he tried to extend the olive branch by tweeting that “Crimea was taken by Russia” and by offering to replace Flynn with a trusted insider who will not veer from the script  prepared by the foreign policy establishment. Check out this blurb on the Foreign Policy magazine website on Wednesday:

President Donald Trump offered the job of national security advisor to retired Vice Adm. Robert Harward on Monday night…If, as expected, Harward accepts the job today, he is likely to bring in his own team, from deputy on down, with a focus on national security types with some experience under their belts…

Harward also would work well with Defense Secretary James Mattis. When Mattis was chief of Central Command, Harward was his deputy. Mattis trusted him enough to put him in charge of planning for war with Iran. Mattis has urged Harward to take the NSA job.

If Harward becomes NSA, Mattis would emerge from the Flynn mess in a uniquely powerful position: He would have two of his former deputies at the table in some meetings. The other one is John Kelly, now secretary for Homeland Security, who was his number two when Mattis commanded a Marine division early in the invasion of Iraq in 2003. (“A Mattis protégé poised to take the helm of Trump’s NSC,” Foreign Policy)

In other words, Trump is relinquishing control over foreign policy and returning it to trusted insiders who will comply with pre-set elitist guidelines. Trump’s sudden metamorphosis was apparent in another story that appeared in Wednesday’s news, this time related to Rex Tillerson and General Joseph Dunford. Here’s a clip from CNN:

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph Dunford meet face to face with their Russian counterparts Thursday, as the Trump administration evaluates the future direction of US-Russian relations….But even as Tillerson’s plane was taking off in Washington, the Pentagon announced the meeting between Dunford and his Russian counterpart Valeriy Gerasimov, which will take place Thursday in Baku, Azerbaijan….

The military leaders will discuss a variety of issues including the current state of U.S.-Russian military relations …Trump’s envoys have been expressing positions more keeping with previous US policies. …

Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, indicated the US would maintain sanctions on Russia for annexing Crimea in 2014. She condemned what she called the “Russian occupation” of the Ukrainian territory…

The US has deployed thousands of troops and tanks to Poland and Romania in recent weeks, while other NATO allies have sent troops to Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.

“There is a common message from the President, from his security team, the secretary of state, the secretary of defense, that they stay strongly committed to NATO,” he added.

Let’s summarize: The sanctions will remain, the tanks are on the border, the commitment to NATO has been reinforced, and Dunford is going to explain Washington’s strategic objectives to his Russian counterpart in clear, unambiguous language. There will be no room for Tillerson, who is on friendly terms with Putin, to change the existing policy or to normalize relations; Dunford, Haley, and Defense Secretary James Mattis will make sure of that.

As for Trump, it’s clear by the Crimea tweet, the sacking of Flynn and the (prospective) appointment of Harward, that he’s running scared and is doing everything in his power to get out of the hole he’s dug for himself.  There’s no way of knowing whether he’ll be allowed to carry on as before or if he’ll be forced to throw other allies, like Bannon or Conway, under the bus. I would expect the purge to continue and to eventually include Trump himself. But that’s just a guess.

The hope that Trump would bring an element of sanity to US foreign policy has now been extinguished. The so called “Trump Revolution” has fizzled out before it ever began.

In contrast, the military buildup along Russia’s western flank continues apace.

Mike Whitney lives in Washington state. He is a contributor to Hopeless: Barack Obama and the Politics of Illusion (AK Press). Hopeless is also available in a Kindle edition. He can be reached at [email protected].

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If you thought yesterday’s press conference was “ranting and raving”, it appears President Trump just turned the anti-‘Fake news’-media amplifier up to ’11’, declaring  CNN, NBC, ABC, CBS , The New York Times (yet not The Washington Post) as “enemies of the American people”.

 

 

 

Incidentally, this was the second tweet, after Trump removed the first version one, which some thought was deleted as it was just a little too “aggressive” but as it turned out, simply ommitted ABC and CBS.

Which begs the question, if the “media” is the enemy, what does that make its corporate owners?

As a reminder, Trump and chief White House strategist Steve Bannon have both referred to the media as the “opposition party.”

“The mainstream media has not fired or terminated anyone associated with following our campaign,” Mr. Bannon said. “Look at the Twitter feeds of those people: they were outright activists of the Clinton campaign.” (He did not name specific reporters or editors.) “That’s why you have no power,” Mr. Bannon added. “You were humiliated.”

“You’re the opposition party,” Mr. Bannon said. “Not the Democratic Party. You’re the opposition party. The media’s the opposition party.”

And here was Trump yesterday.

 

The media – which according to the president is now America’s enemy – had reactions, ranging from the shocked, to the defensive, to the conciliatory, to the bemused.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Who Rules the United States?

February 19th, 2017 by Matthew Continetti

Column: How bureaucrats are fighting the voters for control of our country

Donald Trump was elected president last November by winning 306 electoral votes. He pledged to “drain the swamp” in Washington, D.C., to overturn the system of politics that had left the nation’s capital and major financial and tech centers flourishing but large swaths of the country mired in stagnation and decay. “What truly matters,” he said in his Inaugural Address, “is not which party controls our government, but whether our government is controlled by the people.”

Is it? By any historical and constitutional standard, “the people” elected Donald Trump and endorsed his program of nation-state populist reform. Yet over the last few weeks America has been in the throes of an unprecedented revolt. Not of the people against the government—that happened last year—but of the government against the people. What this says about the state of American democracy, and what it portends for the future, is incredibly disturbing.

President Donald Trump pauses while speaking during a news conference, Thursday, Feb. 16, 2017, in the East Room of the White House in Washington. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

President Donald Trump pauses while speaking during a news conference, Thursday, Feb. 16, 2017, in the East Room of the White House in Washington. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

There is, of course, the case of Michael Flynn. He made a lot of enemies inside the government during his career, suffice it to say. And when he exposed himself as vulnerable those enemies pounced. But consider the means: anonymous and possibly illegal leaks of private conversations. Yes, the conversation in question was with a foreign national. And no one doubts we spy on ambassadors. But we aren’t supposed to spy on Americans without probable cause. And we most certainly are not supposed to disclose the results of our spying in the pages of the Washington Post because it suits a partisan or personal agenda.

Here was a case of current and former national security officials using their position, their sources, and their methods to crush a political enemy. And no one but supporters of the president seems to be disturbed. Why? Because we are meant to believe that the mysterious, elusive, nefarious, and to date unproven connection between Donald Trump and the Kremlin is more important than the norms of intelligence and the decisions of the voters.

But why should we believe that? And who elected these officials to make this judgment for us?

Nor is Flynn the only example of nameless bureaucrats working to undermine and ultimately overturn the results of last year’s election. According to the New York Times, civil servants at the EPA are lobbying Congress to reject Donald Trump’s nominee to run the agency. Is it because Scott Pruitt lacks qualifications? No. Is it because he is ethically compromised? Sorry. The reason for the opposition is that Pruitt is a critic of the way the EPA was run during the presidency of Barack Obama. He has a policy difference with the men and women who are soon to be his employees. Up until, oh, this month, the normal course of action was for civil servants to follow the direction of the political appointees who serve as proxies for the elected president.

How quaint. These days an architect of the overreaching and antidemocratic Waters of the U.S. regulation worries that her work will be overturned so she undertakes extraordinary means to defeat her potential boss. But a change in policy is a risk of democratic politics. Nowhere does it say in the Constitution that the decisions of government employees are to be unquestioned and preserved forever. Yet that is precisely the implication of this unprecedented protest. “I can’t think of any other time when people in the bureaucracy have done this,” a professor of government tells the paper. That sentence does not leave me feeling reassured.

Opposition to this president takes many forms. Senate Democrats have slowed confirmations to the most sluggish pace since George Washington. Much of the New York and Beltway media does really function as a sort of opposition party, to the degree that reporters celebrated the sacking of Flynn as a partisan victory for journalism. Discontent manifests itself in direct actions such as the Women’s March.

But here’s the difference. Legislative roadblocks, adversarial journalists, and public marches are typical of a constitutional democracy. They are spelled out in our founding documents: the Senate and its rules, and the rights to speech, a free press, and assembly. Where in those documents is it written that regulators have the right not to be questioned, opposed, overturned, or indeed fired, that intelligence analysts can just call up David Ignatius and spill the beans whenever they feel like it?

The last few weeks have confirmed that there are two systems of government in the United States. The first is the system of government outlined in the U.S. Constitution—its checks, its balances, its dispersion of power, its protection of individual rights. Donald Trump was elected to serve four years as the chief executive of this system. Whether you like it or not.

The second system is comprised of those elements not expressly addressed by the Founders. This is the permanent government, the so-called administrative state of bureaucracies, agencies, quasi-public organizations, and regulatory bodies and commissions, of rule-writers and the byzantine network of administrative law courts. This is the government of unelected judges with lifetime appointments who, far from comprising the “least dangerous branch,” now presume to think they know more about America’s national security interests than the man elected as commander in chief.

For some time, especially during Democratic presidencies, the second system of government was able to live with the first one. But that time has ended. The two systems are now in competition. And the contest is all the more vicious and frightening because more than offices are at stake. This fight is not about policy. It is about wealth, status, the privileges of an exclusive class.

“In our time, as in [Andrew] Jackson’s, the ruling classes claim a monopoly not just on the economy and society but also on the legitimate authority to regulate and restrain it, and even on the language in which such matters are discussed,” writes Christopher Caldwell in a brilliant essay in the Winter 2016/17 Claremont Review of Books.

Elites have full-spectrum dominance of a whole semiotic system. What has just happened in American politics is outside the system of meanings elites usually rely upon. Mike Pence’s neighbors on Tennyson street not only cannot accept their election loss; they cannot fathom it. They are reaching for their old prerogatives in much the way that recent amputees are said to feel an urge to scratch itches on limbs that are no longer there. Their instincts tell them to disbelieve what they rationally know. Their arguments have focused not on the new administration’s policies or its competence but on its very legitimacy.

Donald Trump did not cause the divergence between government of, by, and for the people and government, of, by, and for the residents of Cleveland Park and Arlington and Montgomery and Fairfax counties. But he did exacerbate it. He forced the winners of the global economy and the members of the D.C. establishment to reckon with the fact that they are resented, envied, opposed, and despised by about half the country. But this recognition did not humble the entrenched incumbents of the administrative state. It radicalized them to the point where they are readily accepting, even cheering on, the existence of a “deep state” beyond the control of the people and elected officials.

Who rules the United States? The simple and terrible answer is we do not know. But we are about to find out.

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Two weeks ago heavy machines began to clear the banks of the Mur in the south of Graz, which was for long time one of the most important recreational zones in our city. Because of the wide ranging civil resistance against the project the construction firms have great fear that sabotage in any possible way may happen. Fortunately all protests until now remained peaceful.

Dozens of police buses are parked in the vicinity of the excavators. Police and private security services build a human shield to protect the workers from being harassed by angry citizens.

What is a sad example how security forces are abused to protect the interests of a little, influential group against the sake of the people while it is supposed to be the other way around.

I ask myself how it must be for a good, dutiful policeman who feels with us and would therefore prefer to stand on the other side of the fence.

High fences and many security guards are needed to shield the building site from upset people. Sadly even the biggest rally with more then 4.000 protesters could not prevent the things that happen now.

Different environmental groups joined the protests. The banks of the Mur are an important habitat for some protectec animals like certain kinds of bats, the dice snake and the Huchen. which will most likely disappear when the Mur-barrage in the south of Graz is completed.

Although there is already a lot of destruction, activists still hope to stop the project and prevent at least the remainining natural part of the Mur in the inner city from being destroyed.

Despite the icy temperatures a brave group of people are determined to resist. They have therefore set up a protest camp near the bank of the green river. Men and women spend nearly all of their spare time, eating, and sleeping under the open sky even the in the harsh weather conditions which typically prevail in Graz in February.

A fire bowl stands in the middle. People sit in a circle around the fire and warm their legs at the sound of a guitar. Protest songs and poems are written and rehearsed together for the next big rally.

One touching thing is to see how local residents support the protesters by hanging out flags with the Lettering „Rettet die Mur“ (Save the Mur).  Supporters from the sorrounding residental blocks bring warm clothings, wood for the firebowl, food and – the most important thing – good Words of encouragement and assist the gruop physically and morally in every possible way.

Despite rumors that the camp may be violently cleared by security forces in the near future the majority of the people in the camp keep a positive attitude and believe in their ability to change the course of things

Daniel Vidic, born and living in Graz, Austria

Prepress technician (gravure) for food packaging

Hobbies: Canoeing, Hanggliding (flight instructor), climbing, mountaineering

Notes:

Website “Save the Mur”

www.rettetdiemur.at

Supporters:

WWF

http://wwf.at/de/murkraftwerk-graz-protest-gerechtfertigt-wenn-recht-missachtet-wird/

River Watch

http://riverwatch.eu/mur/verbund-beteiligt-sich-an-grazer-denkmal-der-zerstorung

Environmental society Styria

http://www.naturschutzbundsteiermark.at/murkraftwerk.html

Green party https://graz.gruene.at/murkraftwerk

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This week the Turkish President Erdogan visited the Gulf states. He asked for bigger investment in Turkey and for cash for his project to occupy more parts of Syria. A week ago Erodgan had claimed:

“Al-Bab is about to be captured. Manbij and Raqqah are next,” Erdogan said, adding their number one priority was to form a safe zone in the country.

This week he brought his Army Chief of Staff Arak to the Gulf to declare victory. Several Erdogan friendly media outlets in Turkey (any other left?) reported:

Operation Euphrates Shield has entered a new phase in al-Bab, as the offensive stage is over now that the town has largely been recaptured from Daesh.“The operation in al-Bab is over,” Chief of General Staff Hulusi Akar said at a press conference in Qatar on Wednesday during President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s trip to Gulf countries.

Silence now dominates the area that was once scene to heavy clashes. Turkish tanks patrol al-Bab’s streets and the Syrian opposition has pressed a major advance.

That claim was a huge lie. While Turkish forces had earlier taken some outskirts of Al-Bab and claimed to own 40% of the city they were by then stuck and later in full retreat.

Yesterday the Turkish forces lost the Al-Hikma hospital and the automatic bakery they had earlier captured and retreated from all inner districts of Al-Bab. At least 90% of Al-Bab is still in Islamic State hands.

Geolocated video by the Islamic State and Turkish supported forces show that the Turks are back at their starting points at the outer city limits.


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As many as 430 Syrian civilians have been killed by Turkish forces and their auxiliaries. Just last week the MI-6 sponsored Syrian Observatory said that Turkish bombing killed more than 60 in Al-Bab. It confirmed videos posted by the Islamic State which showed killed children and destroyed houses. Unlike with every death cause by fighting between Takfiris and the Syrian Army no “western” main-stream media picked up on that.

Turkey started to invade Syria between Aleppo and Euphrates exactly six month ago. The aim was to prevent the Syrian Kurds from taking an east-to-west corridor along the Turkish border. Such would have closed off Turkey from further influence in Syria. The Turks had hired some of the Syrian “rebels” they had earlier supported to fight the Syrian government to now fight the Islamic State and the Kurds. The Takfiris of Ahrar al-Sham are their storm troopers.

The first three month showed some rapid progress. The Islamic State was bribed to move out of the northern Syrian areas without a fight and the Turks moved in. But in December they reached Al-Bab, a city east of Aleppo with originally some 60,000 inhabitants. There resistance from the Islamic State picked up and the Turkish progress stopped. Turkish armor, often placed without cover in sight of the front line, was destroyed in mass by Islamic State anti-tank missiles. Casualties climbed and the mercenaries of the FSA refused to continue the fight.

As of Thursday casualties number so far were at least 64 Turkish soldiers killed and 386 wounded. Of the FSA auxiliaries at least 469 were killed and 1,712 wounded. A dozen main battle tanks were confirmed as lost. Unofficial sources claim that more than 30 Turkish tanks were destroyed as well as 20+ armored infantry carriers – nearly two battalions wasted for no significant gain.

The Free Syrian Army mercenaries Erdogan hired to take on the Kurds and the Islamic State are now mostly useless. They do not fight efficiently but profusely waste ammunition for spray-and-pray show offs (vid).

To compensate for that Turkey injected its own special Forces and now has some 3,000 soldiers involved in the operation. But that did not help either –  losses continued and no progress was made. Another 5,000 Turkish soldiers were now send (Tur) to join the operation. It was also announced that Turkey plans to erect three garrisons in Syria. On top of the eluding Al-Bab Erdogan now also wants to take the Islamic State held Raqqa and the Kurdish held Manbij.

His plan of a Raqqa operation is ludicrous. It would require to fight for and hold a corridor through Kurdish-Syrian areas:

Ankara’s preferred plan of action envisages Turkish and U.S. special forces, backed by commandoes and Turkey-backed Syrian rebels entering Syria through the border town of Tel Abyad, currently held by Kurdish YPG militia, the newspaper said.The forces would effectively cut through YPG territory, before pushing on to Raqqa, which lies about 100 kilometers (60 miles) south.

Such a plan would require the United States to convince the Kurdish militia to grant the Turkey-backed forces a 20-kilometre (12-mile)-wide strip through YPG territory in order to push south, ..

The U.S. would not (and could not) hold back Kurdish forces from attacking such a long Turkish supply line.

But who takes such announcements serious anyway? After the alleged coup against him Erdogan kicked out every officer who was not, in his view, sufficiently loyal to him. His air-force was hurt the most. Allegedly only 0.4 qualified pilots per plane are available now instead of the regular 2-3. It takes up to a decade to train new pilots.

The ground army may be in slightly better shape but NATO’s second biggest military is no longer the serious force it once was. The whole Turkish operation is in disarray. Moreover – there is no plan for the day after or any exit strategy. Decisions and announcements change from day to day.

The current Turkish plans contradict the Astana agreements concluded with Russia, Syria and Iran. Only a short, temporary role for Turkish forces was agreed upon. Al-Bab was supposed to be taken by Syrian forces. Syria has officially protested at the UN against the Turkish invasion. But neither Syria nor Russia or Iran have started to fight the Turkish forces. “Just let the Turks bleed,” seems to be their current slogan.

Erdogan set the date for a referendum in Turkey over a new constitution. The vote in April would legalize his quasi dictatorial powers. But the quagmire in Syria and the stalemate at Al-Bab will cost him. Why choose a dictator prone to lose his fights? Unconfirmed rumors are swiveling around claiming that Erdogan is trying to bribe the Islamic State to leave Al-Bab. Such a move would fit Erdogan’s motives. He needs the victory and does not shy away from otherwise illegitimate methods.

South of Al-Bab the Syrian army is moving towards the Euphrates. It will cut off the Turkish forces path to Raqqa and Manbij. In north-east Syria formerly Turkish sponsored Takfiris fight each other. Jund al-Aqsa, allied with Islamic State, is mass killing “moderate rebels” allied with Al-Qaeda. Hundreds of “rebel” fighters and prisoners have lost their lives in such infighting.

In the south “moderate rebels” and al-Qaeda try to attack the city of Daraa, held by regular Syrian forces. The attacks failed. Jordan closed its borders and no longer takes care of wounded “rebels”. The Military Operations Room in Jordan has stopped all supplies and payments to anti-Syrian forces. Only Israel is still secretly helping them.

Syrian government forces mop up isolated rebel strongholds near Damascus. Some Syrian army forces are moving to retake Palmyra. The east-Syrian garrison in Deir Ezzor, isolated and attacked by the Islamic State, is still holding out. Bigger operations against the Takfiris in the south and north-west are planned but the smart move now is to just sit tight and let the enemies, Takfiris as well as Turks, continue in their self destruction.

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Fears at Munich Security Conference: The Mattis Pitch on NATO

February 19th, 2017 by Dr. Binoy Kampmark

Ladies and gentlemen, the Transatlantic bond remains our strongest bulwark against instability and Russia.

US Defence Secretary Jim Mattis, Feb 17, 2017

While the US commander-in-chief finds the North Atlantic Treaty Alliance something of an obsolete joke, and a costly one at that, his own appointment as Defence Secretary James M. Mattis was singing a different tune in Munich.

The occasion was that of the Munich Security Conference, the 53rd no less, advertised as “a key annual gathering for the international ‘strategic community’” and founded as the “Internationale Wehrkunde-Begegnung.”[1]

After being introduced by German Defence Minister Ursula Von der Leyden, Mattis reiterated a line he seems he can stick with: Trump “too espouses NATO’s need to adapt to today’s strategic situation for it to remain credible, capable and relevant.” The interpretation there was elementary: European states had to engage in more convincing acts of binge spending on defence.

Moving onto the lingo of watered down geopolitics, Mattis then claimed that, “We all see our community of nations under threat on multiple fronts as the arc of instability builds on NATO’s periphery and beyond.”  Nothing like a good jolt of fear to beef military budgets.

MSC chairman Wolfgang Ischinger had set the tone on the sentiment ahead of the receptions, the panels and the strategic love-in.  “Instead of waiting in fear of the next Trump tweet, we Europeans should lay the foundations for a Europe that is strong, capable of taking action and committed to Western values.”[2]

Gazing through Trump’s tweets has made officials in European capitals tremble.  There is a fear of equivalence: the Trump administration treating German Chancellor Angela Merkel as he would Russian President Vladimir Putin.  For the business mind, this is hardly surprising.  For the ideologue, this is terrifying.

Ischinger engages in a bit of America gazing himself, trying to decode, then debunk, “America First” as dangerously anti-internationalist.  That said, he cautions against writing off the United States as a continuing valuable partner.  The US is still the place of more good eggs rather than broken ones. The “majority,” he reminds us, did not vote for The Donald.

Self-deception is a dangerous quality at any security conference, and to speak of Europe in terms of a bloc of clear headed, coherent thinkers acting as one, is comfortingly superficial.  Estrangement is in the air across the continent, and not all see the threats in quite the same way.

Well as it is that a majority of voters thought differently about Trump, but within Europe, fractures have appeared that threaten giddy reassessments and an unravelling. (A nice theme for the conference might have been “Global Exit: Prospects and Promise.”)

Pondering Mattis’ propitiating words were both the antidote and an anti-Trump version of a policy.  No one, claimed Mattis, could go it alone on security – a hearty snub to Trimpist unilateralism.  “Security is always best when provided by a team.” He praised the German defence minister for the “in-depth” talks held in Washington, where the “security situation facing not only our nations and the alliance, but the broader global community” were chewed over.

There was little doubting the Mattis slant on this: a traditional defender of an alliance moralised in a manner almost anachronistic.  (The Russians are coming!)  NATO was nothing less than fetish and protector, preserving “the rules-based international order, serving to keep the peace and to defend shared values that grew out of the Enlightenment.”

Similar sentiments were echoed by Senator John McCain, Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee. There was urgency, even emergency in the air.  “In the four decades I have attended this conference, I cannot recall a year where its purpose was more necessary or more important.”[3] There were panels considering the demise, if not terminal nature of the West.

This, claimed McCain, required delegates to reconsider the very idea of “the West,” troubled offspring of “the most awful calamity in human history”. This child born free saw a “better kind of world order… one based not on blood-and-soil nationalism, or spheres of influence, or conquest of the weak by the strong, but rather on universal values, rule of law, open commerce, and respect for national sovereignty and independence.”

McCain’s heavily abridged variant is hardly credible textbook history, ignoring the nastier aspects of what happened during the Cold War, where Manichean beasts and values went head to head in torture chambers, over proxy governments and, as a matter of fact, spheres of influence.

President Recep Erdoğan of Turkey, a vital and dangerous NATO member, would have found such particular comments testily amusing, given how busy he has been working against such shared values.  “Under Erdoğan’s leadership,” scribbled an irritated Stanley Weiss, founder of the Washington-based Business Executives for National Security, “our NATO ally has arrested more allies than China, jailed thousands of students for the crime of free speech, and replaced secular schools with Islamic-focused madrassas.”[4]  Enlightenment values indeed.

Dr. Binoy Kampmark was a Commonwealth Scholar at Selwyn College, Cambridge.  He lectures at RMIT University, Melbourne.  Email: [email protected]

Notes

[1] https://www.securityconference.de/en/news/article/munich-security-conference-2017-kicks-off-full-agenda-and-list-of-participants-now-available/

[2] https://www.securityconference.de/en/discussion/monthly-mind/single-view/article/monthly-mind-february-2017-how-europe-should-deal-with-trump/

[3] http://www.mccain.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/speeches?ID=32A7E7DD-8D76-4431-B1E7-8644FD71C49F

[4] http://www.huffingtonpost.com/stanley-weiss/its-time-to-kick-erdogans_b_9300670.html

 

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Crimea: Time for the US Administration to Read the Truth

February 19th, 2017 by Timothy Bancroft-Hinchey

The approach towards the Crimea by the United States of America is as unfounded, unjust and illegal as the transfer of the Crimea by  Khrushchev from the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic to the Ukraine Soviet Socialist Republic in 1954, meaning that calls for the return of this part of Russian territory are based on ignorance.

There appears to be a great deal of confusion among the new US Administration headed by President Trump as to the Crimea question. Let us once and for all address the history and the legality of the issue and we shall conclude that Crimea is Russia, Crimea belongs to Russia and should according to international law remain so.

The decision by the Presidium of the Supreme Council of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics decided on February 19, 1954 to transfer the Province of Crimea from the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, in secret, without informing the population. The decree appeared only a week later on February 27 on the front page of Pravda newspaper, as follows:

“Decree of the Presidium of the USSR Supreme Soviet transferring the Crimea Province from the Russian SFSR to the Ukrainian SSR.

Taking into account the integral character of the economy, the territorial proximity and the close economic and cultural ties between the Crimea Province and the Ukrainian SSR, the Presidium of the USSR Supreme Soviet decrees:

To approve the joint presentation of the Presidium of the Russian SFSR Supreme Soviet and the Presidium of the Ukrainian SSR Supreme Soviet on the transfer of the Crimea Province from the Russian SFSR to the Ukrainian SSR.”

The decision was illegal

The decision was illegal, firstly because the Presidium of the Supreme Council did not have the quorum necessary, seating only 13 of 27 members, so fewer that 50 per cent. Secondly, the decision violated the Constitution of the Russian SFSR and the Constitution of the USSR. According to the text signed on June 27 2015, Russian Deputy Prosecutor General Sabir Kehlerova Mironov of the Office of the Prosecutor General of the Russian Federation 

“Neither the Constitution of the RSFSR or the USSR Constitution … provide powers of the Presidium Supreme Soviet of the USSR and for the consideration of the changes in the constitutional legal status of the Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic, members of the union republics. In view of the above, the decision adopted in 1954 by the Presidium of the Supreme Soviets of the RSFSR and the Soviet Union on the transfer of the Crimean region of the RSFSR to the Ukraine SSR, did not correspond to the Constitution (Fundamental Law) of the RSFSR and the Constitution (Fundamental Law) of the USSR.”

The decision was made before a constitutional change granted the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet (Advisory) Council under Articles 22 and 23 to carry out transfers of territories.

The legality of the current question

Let us imagine for a moment that the 1954 decision had been legal (which is was not). What happened in 2013 was that an illegal coup d’état removed the democratically elected President of Ukraine (Viktor Yanukovich). In the absence of the supreme representative of justice, according to the Constitution of the Republic of Crimea, its Legislative Assembly now passed to be the body exercising legal force. It was this body which decided to hold a free and fair referendum, internationally observed and approved, on the status of the population of Crimea, which voted overwhelmingly to return to its rightful place, inside the Russian Federation.

There is no possible doubt on the issue, which is crystal clear. Crimea is Russia, end of story. Move on and move forward, or keep pressing the same key and cause a damaging stalemate in international relations.

And more: isn’t it about time the United States of America ceased sticking its nose into everyone’s business? There are better claims for Lakota and Aztlan to change their status than the Crimea. Suppose someone decided to start stirring up trouble over there and see how Washington likes it?

 


Crimea and Russian history

*Timothy Bancroft-Hinchey has worked as a correspondent, journalist, deputy editor,  in Angola, Brazil, Cape Verde, East Timor, Guinea-Bissau, Portugal, Mozambique and São Tomé and Principe Isles; the Russian Foreign Ministry publication Dialog and the Cuban Foreign Ministry Official Publications. 

He has spent the last two decades in humanitarian projects, connecting communities, working to document and catalog disappearing languages, cultures, traditions, working to network with the LGBT communities helping to set up shelters for abused or frightened victims and as Media Partner with UN Women, working to foster the UN Women project to fight against gender violence and to strive for an end to sexism, racism and homophobia. A Vegan, he is also a Media Partner of Humane Society International, fighting for animal rights. He is Director and Chief Editor of the Portuguese version of Pravda.Ru.

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Petróleos Mexicanos, la gallina desplumada

February 18th, 2017 by Mouris Salloum George

Dentro de un mes -79 Aniversario de la Expropiación Petrolera-, ante los mexicanos se exhibirá, no el águila imperial que en tiempos remotos simbolizó la soberanía nacional. Presidirá la fecha, una gallina desplumada.

De la vieja, gorda y ponedora gallina de los huevos de oro, a los compatriotas no les quedaron ni las plumas.

En 2008, como gancho para lograr la aprobación de su Reforma Energética, Felipe Calderón se aventó la gran burla de anunciarLos bonos ciudadanos con valor de 100 pesos. Una emisión inicial, se dijo entonces, sería de cinco millones de pesos.

Se trataría de convencer a los compatriotas de que el petróleo seguiría siendo de su patrimonio.

Ya para 2014; esto es, seis años después, el director corporativo de la Empresa Productiva del Estado, Alberto Beauregard dio por abandonada aquella iniciativa: Pemex sigue siendo atractiva para los inversionistas extranjeros. Obviamente, en dólares y euros, y no en devaluados pesos mexicanos.

Pemex, del tercer al octavo sitio en el ranking mundial

En el periodo de 2000 a 2012 (el de La docena trágica), Pemex generó ingresos por siete billones 753 mil millones de pesos. Para el periodo de 2004 a 2015, Pemex había caído en elranking mundial, del tercer al octavo sitio.

En el recorrido, las refinerías de Pemex en territorio nacional bajaron su producción de un millón 78 mil barriles diarios, a 779 mil barriles.

En 2009, Pemex tenía deuda por un monto de 625 mil millones de pesos. En el más reciente reporte entregado al Senado (noviembre) se da cuenta que la deuda de Pemex se disparó hasta un billón 797 mil millones de pesos. Es decir, 187 por ciento más.

(El titular de la PGR, Raúl Cervantes, viaja a Brasil a enterarse de cómo anda la corrupción allá).

Tan decreciente y sombrío cuadro explica el por qué de los temidos e irritantes gasolinazos.

Pemex no tiene llenadera: Emite más papeles de deuda

Pero hay cosas buenas que merecen contarse, y ésta en una de ellas: Esta semana se dio a conocer que Pemex colocó papeles de deuda por cuatro mil 250 millones de euros. Sólo por esta colocación en “tres tramos”, los que vengan tendrán que arriar hasta 2028. Si bien les va.

Otra buena noticia que hay que contar, es que ayer don Juan Pablo Castañón fue reelecto para un periodo más como jefe de la burocracia privada representada por el Consejo Coordinador Empresarial (CCE).

Estaba tan emocionado por su reelección, que don Juan Pablo anunció inversiones productivas por la friolera de tres y mediobillones de pesos.

El compromiso, sin dar un cronograma y los sectores a los van esos recursos, se anunció en el XL aniversario de la fundación del CCE.

Que se recuerde, desde el último año del sexenio de Ernesto Zedillo Ponce de León, los hombres de negocios, en cada aniversario del CCE, anuncian colosales inversiones privadas, sin precisar para cuándo.

Hoy, con sólo la mitad de los recursos prometidos por Castañón, se pagaría el total de la deuda de Pemex. Por poner un ejemplo. Y habría remantes para activar las Zonas Económicas Especiales, cuya gestión está en manos casualmente del ex presidente del CCE, Gerardo Gutiérrez Candiani.

Repitiendo lo dicho sobre Calderón en 2008, hay quienes siguen creyendo que con grandes burlas se puede domar el “el humor social”. Eso parece ser tentación de suicidio.

Mouris Salloum George

Mouris Salloum George: Director del Club de Periodistas de México A.C.

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Pakistán en pie de guerra tras ataques terroristas

February 18th, 2017 by Roberto Castellanos Fernandez

Las Fuerzas Armadas pakistaníes desarrollan hoy una masiva operación antiterrorista en todo el territorio nacional, donde murieron más de un centenar de extremistas y una docena de uniformados en las últimas horas.

La ofensiva castrense es una respuesta a una serie de atentados ejecutados por grupos armados de corte islámico que desde principios de mes ensangrentaron a ese país.

El miércoles, tres atacantes suicidas causaron la muerte de siete personas en la provincia de Khyber Pakhtunkhwa en incidentes separados. Dos días antes una operación similar en la ciudad de Lahore dejó 14 víctimas mortales.

Pero el más cruento ocurrió el jueves cuando un suicida detonó ocho kilogramos de explosivos en un templo sufí de la sureña provincia de Sindh, causando al menos 88 muertos y 343 heridos.

Reivindicado por el Estado Islámico (EI), el ataque ocurrió en el santuario de Lal Shahbaz Qalandar en la ciudad de Sehwan, a unos 200 kilómetros al noreste de Karachi, la urbe más populosa de la nación.

Al momento de la explosión el templo estaba abarrotado de fieles, que cada jueves se congregan allí para orar y ejecutar un dhamaal, una danza folclórica tradicional de los sufíes.

Los sunitas radicales consideran esa práctica como una herejía, lo cual convierte a sus practicantes en blanco de los grupos terroristas como el EI.

En respuesta, los militares iniciaron operaciones de búsqueda y captura por todo el territorio nacional y anunciaron el lanzamiento de dos números telefónicos para denunciar cualquier acción sospechosa.

‘No dejaremos que la agenda hostil se imponga cueste lo que cueste’, advirtió el jefe del Ejército, general Qamar Javed Bajwa, quien afirmó que la sangre derramada no quedará impune.

Según el Servicio de Relaciones Públicas castrense (ISPR) en poco más de 24 horas fueron abatidos más de 100 insurgentes mientras otras 90 personas fueron arrestadas en las ciudades de Islamabad y Rawalpindi.

En la capital, los cuerpos de seguridad inspeccionaron más de 350 viviendas y detuvieron a 42 personas, 10 de ellas de nacionalidad afgana.

Por su parte, el Departamento Antiterrorista de la nororiental provincia de Punjab ordenó restringir el movimiento de mil 450 ciudadanos presuntamente vinculados con grupos extremistas.

Otra consecuencia del atentado suicida contra el templo sufí fue la paralización del tibio acercamiento entre Pakistán y Afganistán.

El gobierno de Islamabad exigió a Kabul aplicar medidas contra lass formaciones armadas que supuestamente utilizan el territorio afgano para ejecutar ataques contra Pakistán.

El asesor de Relaciones Exteriores del primer ministro pakistaní, Sartaj Aziz, telefoneó al titular de seguridad nacional afgano, Hanif Atmar, para demandar acciones drásticas contra los extremistas.

La mayoría de los ataques en Pakistán son reivindicados por organizaciones terroristas cuyo liderazgo se esconde en Afganistán, afirmó ayer Bajwa en una conversación telefónica con el general John Nicholson, comandante de las tropas estadounidenses desplegadas allí.

Mientras, el jefe del ISPR, Asif Ghafoor, llamó a las autoridades de Kabul a entregar a 76 extremistas que presuntamente se esconden en su nación.

El militar reveló que funcionarios de la embajada afgana fueron convocados a la sede del Ejército pakistaní para recibir la lista.

Existen pruebas que demuestran el respaldo desde el otro lado de la frontera a organizaciones terroristas, estimó un comunicado del ISPR, por lo cual anunció el cierre indefinido de la línea de demarcación.

Desde junio de 2014 el Ejército desarrolla una campaña contra los reductos de los grupos radicales en especial en las zonas limítrofes con Afganistán.

Aunque diversas ONG y el gobierno confirman que el número de ataques y de muertos disminuyó considerablemente desde esa fecha, las formaciones terroristas están lejos de ser derrotadas, como lo demuestran sus recientes atentados.

Roberto Castellanos Fernandez

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Caricom: Unidad ante desafíos e incertidumbre

February 18th, 2017 by Jorge Luna

La vulnerabilidad de los países caribeños ante amenazas de la naturaleza y desafíos económicos y políticos quedó de manifiesto en la recién concluida Cumbre de la Comunidad Caribeña (Caricom), que llamó al urgente fortalecimiento de la unidad regional.

El presidente de Guyana y de la agrupación integracionista de 15 países, David Granger, señaló las dificultades de los miembros de Caricom para impulsar el desarrollo económico, entre otras razones, por ser decenas de territorios diseminados en 2,4 millones de kilómetros cuadrados.

Puso como ejemplo las dificultades del transporte para el traslado de personas y mercancías dentro de la región, problemas de infraestructura para el turismo y frecuentes desastres naturales, pero insistió en el carácter único de la región y subrayó su orgullo de ser caribeño.

Más allá de estos retos, resaltó la incierta relación de Caricom con el resto del mundo, especialmente sus lazos comerciales y económicos con Estados Unidos y Reino Unido, potencias que acaban de dar nuevo rumbo a sus políticas internacionales.

Granger, en nombre de los ocho primeros ministros y varios cancilleres y funcionarios de alto nivel que asistieron a la cumbre, recordó que los países de Caricom tradicionalmente tuvieron una relación de respeto y cordialidad con Estdos Unidos y esperan que así continue con la actual administración.

El primer ministro de Granada, Keith Mitchell, quien asumirá la presidencia rotativa de Caricom en julio próximo, precisó que persiste la incertidumbre ante las medidas migratorias anunciadas por Washington, puesto que en Estados Unidos radican millones de caribeños.

Tenemos que esperar y ver, comentó, respecto al impacto que tendrá esa política en el Caribe.

Ralph Gonzalves, primer ministro de San Vicente y las Granadinas, por su parte, dijo a Prensa Latina desconocer con precisión la nueva política migratoria, pero apuntó que ‘tiene potencial para un impacto negativo. Dependerá de cuán grande sea la red cuando caiga. Pero, sin duda, no es algo que instintivamente nos inspire a inclinarnos a apoyarla’.

Otros mandatarios definieron el actual escenario internacional como un ‘hostil paisaje global’.

Aparte de las relaciones internacionales, la conferencia priorizó el debate de temas económicos y de seguridad. Al respecto, indicaron que el auge de la criminalidad no es un problema solo nacional sino regional.

En lo económico, la cumbre resaltó la necesidad de seguir avanzando en el establecimiento pleno del llamado Mercado y Economía Únicos de Caricom (CSME, por sus siglas en inglés) para garantizar el camino del desarrollo en la región. Los líderes caribeños coincidieron en que ese proyecto tiene aún varios aspectos pendientes de concreción.

Vinculado con ese tema, los mandatarios indicaron que Caricom tomará prontas medidas para rechazar las prácticas de ciertos bancos corresponsales internacionales, que perciben al Caribe como una zona de riesgo, lo cual afecta su comercio, inversiones, turismo y remesas.

Jorge Luna

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Crecen inestabilidad e incertidumbre en la Casa Blanca

February 18th, 2017 by Roberto García Hernández

La decisión del vicealmirante retirado Robert Harward de rechazar la propuesta del presidente Donald Trump para ocupar el cargo de asesor de Seguridad Nacional, constituye hoy un nuevo elemento de inestabilidad e incertidumbre en la Casa Blanca.

Harward, quien sirvió durante cuatro décadas en la Marina, argumentó anoche razones personales para esquivar la designación del mandatario, lo que tiene lugar poco después de la renuncia -a solicitud de Trump- del exgeneral Michael Flynn, ante alegaciones de que informó de manera imprecisa sobre sus contactos con la embajada de Rusia en Washington.

Expertos señalan que la negativa de Harward a aceptar el puesto -que no necesita aprobación del Senado- añade otro revés al mandatario, cuyas primeras tres semanas en el poder algunos califican de tumultuosas y que la más reciente edición de la revista Time asegura es un verdadero caos.

Keith Kellogg, también general retirado, quien ocupó provisionalmente el puesto que dejó Flynn, es uno de los posibles aspirantes a permanecer en esa posición de forma definitiva, aunque también se menciona a David Petraeus, quien renunció como director de la CIA en 2012, en medio de un escándalo por mantener una relación extramarital, cuya designación, en lugar de resolver el problema, pudiera complicarlo.

Entretanto, un editorial del diario The New York Times pidió hoy el nombramiento de un fiscal especial que investigue de manera profunda e inmediata los supuestos nexos de consejeros del jefe de la Casa Blanca con las autoridades rusas.

El periódico señala que no se puede confiar en el director del FBI, James Comey, como un investigador neutral, debido a que su ‘interferencia en las presidenciales de noviembre de 2016 comprometió la integridad de esa agencia y dañó la imagen de la candidata demócrata Hillary Clinton’ en los días finales de la contienda.

Según el rotativo neoyorquino, Comey se subordina directamente al Fiscal General, Jeff Sessions, quien a su vez no solo es el más ardiente defensor de Trump en la Cámara alta, sino también fungió como jefe del comité asesor de seguridad nacional en la campaña del magnate inmobiliario por el partido rojo.

Niall Stanage, especialista en asuntos de la actual Administración, señala este viernes en el diario The Hill, que la sorpresiva conferencia de prensa de Trump ayer en la Casa Blanca fue un intento fallido por pasar la página de lo que hasta ahora fue un ‘tumultuoso comienzo’ de su mandato.

Según Stanage, las dificultades del actual gobernante van más allá de la renuncia de Flynn, de las dudas sobre la competencia de la Administración y de las persistentes filtraciones de datos y rumores acerca de luchas internas entre el personal que acompaña al gobernante.

Durante el intercambio de Trump con los medios ayer, calificado de salvaje por algún que otro comentarista, los reporteros increparon al magnate inmobiliario sobre su verdadero compromiso con el respeto a la libertad de expresión.

En dicho encuentro, el jefe de la oficina oval prometió que la semana próxima emitirá una nueva orden ejecutiva sobre inmigración, por lo que no habrá apelación contra el veto reciente de la Corte del Noveno Circuito a su anterior decreto en esa materia.

En ese sentido, el Departamento de Justicia envió la víspera a ese tribunal un documento de 47 páginas en el que explica las razones por las cuales, en lugar de seguir el actual litigio, el Presidente intenta en el futuro cercano emitir otra moción, tras una revisión sustancial de la anterior, pero que según expertos tendrá los mismos objetivos.

En medio de esta situación compleja, el Senado y la Cámara de Representantes recesan sus labores la semana próxima, con motivo del Día del Presidente que se celebra el lunes 20 de febrero.

Esto implica que cualquier gestión sobre el tema en el Capitolio tendrá que esperar por el regreso de los legisladores de sus respectivos territorios, pero su ausencia de Washington al parecer no restará fuerza al debate sobre este escándalo que ya empieza a rememorar los días tumultuosos de Watergate.

Roberto García Hernández

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O presidente da Venezuela Nicolás Maduro, afirmou nesta quarta-feira, 15, que a CNN en español e o Departamento de Estado dos Estados Unidos impõem ao presidente norte-americano Donald Trump uma política de agressão massiva em relação à Venezuela. “A CNN e o Departamento de Estado estão impondo ao senhor uma política equivocada”, disse o líder da Revolução Bolivariana durante a inauguração da Gran Misión Justicia Socialista na capital Caracas.
“Digo isso claramente, a Venezuela quer relações de respeito nos termos de igualdade com os EUA”, tuitou também o presidente venezuelano. Enquanto isso, a Comisión Nacional de Telecomunicaciones de Venezuela (Conatel) afirmou que dará início a um processo judicial contra a rede de notícias norte-americana, e às consequentes medidas cautelares.

Através de comunicado por escrito, a Conatel ordenou como medida preventiva a suspensão e a retirada imediata das transmissões da CNN en español no país, por considerar que a emissora “vem difundindo, de forma sistemática e reiterada no decorrer de sua programação diária, de forma clara e perceptível conteúdos que constituem agressões diretas que atentam contra a paz e a estabilidade democrática do nosso povo venezolano, já que os mesmos geram um clima de intolerância”.

A nota insta os meios de comunicação, jornalistas e correspondentes a oferecer informação veraz e oportuna, e acrescenta em referência à CNN: “Sem argumento probatório e de maneira inadequada, difamam e distorcem a verdade”.

O Porquê da Guerra Midiática contra a Venezuela
Ao se conversar com cidadãos venezuelanos sobre a Revolução Bolivariana, é muito comum escutar em todos os cantos do país caribenho: “Hugo Chávez abriu os olhos do povo”, referindo-se à história de saques imperialistas apoiados nas elites locais. Uma das cenas mais comuns na Venezuela hoje, de norte a sul, leste a oeste, é crianças indo e retornando de suas escolas com a Constituição nas mãos – aprovada através de referendo popular em 1999, é a mais democrática do mundo.

A Revolução Bolivariana devolveu identidade à sociedade local, tornou o povo protagonista de sua história além de ter colocado as riquezas naturais do país, historicamente nas mãos das classes dominantes que as repassavam aos Estados Unidos, à sociedade.

Como essa recuperação da riqueza material e moral tem sido feito pode ser resumido da seguinte maneira, deixando bem claro o porquê da guerra midiática global contra a Venezuela: Hugo Chávez rompeu, assim que assumiu o poder em 1999, com os ditames do Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) abrindo mão, desta maneira, do Consenso de Washington que impõe abertura das economias nacionais em favor de empresas estrangeiras; medidas econômicas contrárias aos investimentos sociais por incentivar a desregulamentação do mercado de trabalho e a privatização de longo alcance, inclusive da produção e comercialização do petróleo, de cujo produto a Venezuela possui as maiores reservas do planeta.

É da comercialização do petróleo que o governo bolivariano aparece no topo da lista mundial de investimentos sociais, com 73,6% do orçamento previsto para o ano fiscal de 2017. É desnecessário dizer (?) que exatamente o “outro negro” é o grande motivo de obsessão de Tio Sam, levando-o a promover invasões, assassinatos, golpes e guerra indiscriminadamente nos quatro cantos do planeta.

Tais medidas não significam que o Estado venezuelano tem declarado que os Estados Unidos são um país inimigo, pelo contrário: nos anos de Chávez, a PDVSA, estatal petrolífera da Venezuela, chegou a distribuir óleo de calefação a baixo custo a milhares de famílias pobres de Massachusetts, depois de um acordo entre Caracas e Washington.

A questão bolivariana tem sido uma só: soberania e conversão das riquezas nacionais em favor da sociedade como um todo, o suficiente para gerar crises de histeria nas elites locais (historicamente ligadas aos norte-americanos) e internacionais.

Dado que os grandes meios de comunicação pertencem a essas mesmas elites, tal contexto deixa bem claro o jogo sujo da mídia a fim de deslegitimar o governo venezuelano e jogar no descrédito o Socialismo do Século XXI idealizado por Chávez e fielmente seguido por Maduro hoje, que tem dado muito certo a que pesem todos os boicotes comunicacionais, econômicos (inflação artificial, armazenamento e contrabando de produtos básicos etc) e sociais através das tentativas de golpe suave.

Pior que Ignorar, É Querer Continuar Ignorando

Pois a lavagem cerebral com forte dose de agressividade que não aceita verdades diferentes das suas (isto sim, matéria-prima de regimes fascistas e totalitários) é tão eficazmente aplicada às massas, mesmo em pleno século XXI da revolução da informação da Internet através de inúmeros meios alternativos, que cada vez que se publica artigos como este o rebate não se dá através de contra-argumentação, mas de manifestações como esta (são centenas e centenas para cada autor que se atreve a citar fatos como os desta reportagem):

Ah vão tomar no c+ seus vermelhos de m++da com esse argumento esdruxulo… postem a verdade .. lulistas do ca++lho…

estão na contra mão… digam essas merdas em público aqui em maringá e verão o que sobra de voces pra voltarem pra casa…

A postagem não falava absolutamente nada de lulismo nem sequer do Brasil, mas uma leitora ousou compartilhar no Fez-se Buque artigo bem semelhante a este sobre a democracia e as conquistas sociais na Venezuela, deste mesmo autor. O mais doentio é que esses mesmos seres que primam pela irracionalidade verborrágica encontram cara-de-pau suficiente para condenar a Venezuela pelo que julgam excesso de… intolerância e violência!

Exatamente assim se deram os golpes militares na América Latina do século XX, de cuja história as sociedades mais incautas do continente sul-americano não tiraram lição absolutamente nenhuma.

Venezuela: Não a Democracia que o Pentágono Midiático Quer

Sobre isso tudo, observou o jornalista britânico Mark Weisbrot em 2012 no jornal The Guardian: “Em Washington, democracia tem uma simples definição: um governo faz o que o Departamento de Estado norte-americano quer que seja feito?”. Do contrário, é considerado governo tirânico.

Pois essa definição de democracia por parte dos lords do bem-dizer, estendida pateticamente aos seus catadores de migalhas dos países subdesenvolvidos, é confirmada por cabos secretos liberados aos milhares por WikiLeaks – e pela própria história.

Pois dentro da República Bolivariana da Venezuela, o que tem mantido Maduro no poder, e junto a Revolução ano a ano premiada por Unicef, FAO e os mais respeitados órgãos internacionais por avanços sociais que incluem ampla garantia dos direitos humanos, é exatamente a alta politização e a consciência cidadã: as massas colorem as ruas com bandeiras, faixas, a Constituição nas mãos e apresentações culturais para, pacifica e bravamente, defender a democracia cada vez que ela é ameaçada – e isso se dá praticamente toda semana de maneira contagiante em um país que respira revolução. É o que tem garantido a permanência de Maduro no Palácio de Miraflores, com todas as agressivas tentativas de golpe.

Conforme disse o jornalista colombiano William Ospina: “A Venezuela é um país ímpar, único no mundo onde os ricos protestam e os pobres celebram”.

Edu Montesanti

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A detailed and unabridged version of the 14 lies with supporting scientific and medical analysis can be consulted at the foot of this article scroll down.

Lie # 1:

“The FDA (US Food and Drug Administration) tests all new psychiatric drugs”

Lie # 2: 

“FDA approval means that a psychotropic drug is effective long-term”

Lie # 3:

“FDA approval means that a psychotropic drug is safe long-term” .

Lie # 4:

“Mental ‘illnesses’ are caused by ‘brain chemistry imbalances’”

In actuality, brain chemical/neurotransmitter imbalances have never been proven to exist (except for cases of neurotransmitter depletions that can be caused by psych drugs) despite repeated examinations of lab animal or autopsied human brains and brain slices by neuroscientists. Knowing that there are over 100 known neurotransmitter systems in the human brain, proposing a theoretical chemical ”imbalance” is laughable and flies in the face of science. Not only that, but even if a theoretical imbalance between any two of the 100 potential systems did exist a drug could never be expected to re-balance it!

Such simplistic theories have been perpetrated by Big Pharma upon a gullible public and a gullible psychiatric industry…

Lie # 5:

“Antidepressant drugs work like insulin for diabetics”

Lie # 6:

“SSRI ‘discontinuation syndromes’ are different than ‘withdrawal syndromes’”

The so-called “antidepressant” drugs of the SSRI class are indeed dependency-inducing/addictive, and the neurological and psychological symptoms that occur when these drugs are stopped or tapered down are not “relapses” into a previous ”mental disorder” but are actually new drug withdrawal symptoms that are different from those that prompted the original diagnosis….

Lie # 7:

“Ritalin is safe for children (or adults)”

In actuality, methylphenidate (= Ritalin, Concerta, Daytrana, Metadate and Methylin; aka “kiddie cocaine”) is a dopamine reuptake inhibitor drug and, it works exactly like cocaine on dopamine synapses, except that orally-dosed methylphenidate reaches the brain more slowly than snortable or smoked cocaine does. Therefore the oral form has far less of an orgasmic “high” than cocaine. Cocaine addicts actually prefer Ritalin if they can get it in a relatively pure powder form. When snorted, both the synthetic Ritalin has the same onset of action as the natural cocaine, but it has a longer lasting “high” and is thus actually preferred among addicted individuals. The molecular structures of Ritalin and cocaine both have amphetamine base structures with ring-shaped side chains which, when examined side by side, are remarkably similar. The dopamine synaptic organelles in the brain (and heart, blood vessels, lungs and guts) are unlikely to sense any difference between the two drugs….

Lie # 8:

“Psychoactive drugs are totally safe for humans”

Actually all five classes of psychotropic drugs have been found to be neurotoxic (ie, known to destroy or otherwise alter the physiology, chemistry, anatomy and viability of the vital energy-producing mitochondria that is in every brain cell). They are therefore all capable of contributing to dementia when used long-term.

Any synthetic chemical that is capable of crossing the blood-brain barrier from the capillary circulation into the brain can alter the brain. Synthetic drugs are NOT capable of healing brain dysfunction or reversing brain damage. Rather than curing anything, psychiatric drugs are only capable of temporarily masking symptoms while the abnormal emotional, neurological or mal-nutritional processes that mimic “mental illnesses” continue unabated….

Lie # 9:

“Mental ‘illnesses’ have no known cause

The root causes of my patient’s understandable emotional distress were typically multiple, but the vast majority of them had experienced acute and chronic sexual, physical, psychological, emotional and/or spiritual traumas as root causes – often accompanied by hopelessness, sleep deprivation, serious emotional/physical neglect and brain nutrient deficiencies as well….

Lie # 10: 

“Psychotropic drugs have nothing to do with the huge increase in disabled and unemployable American psychiatric patients”

Many commonly-prescribed drugs are fully capable of causing brain-damage and dementia long-term, especially the anti-psychotics (aka, “major tranquilizers”) like Thorazine, Haldol, Prolixin, Clozapine, Abilify, Clozapine, Fanapt, Geodon, Invega, Risperdal, Saphris, Seroquel and Zyprexa, all of which can cause brain shrinkage….

Lie # 11:

So-called bipolar disorder can mysteriously ‘emerge’ in patients who have been taking stimulating antidepressants like the SSRIs”

In actuality, crazy-making behaviors like mania, agitation and aggression are commonly caused by the SSRIs (Prozac [fluoxetine], Paxil [paroxetine], Zoloft [sertraline], Celexa [citalopram] and Lexapro [escitalopram).

An important point to make is that SSRI-induced mania, agitation, akathisia and aggression is NOT bipolar disorder, and SSRI-induced psychosis is NOT schizophrenia! (Google ssristories.net  to read over 5000 documented stories about SSRI drug-induced aberrant behaviors, including 48 school shootings/incidents, 52 road rage tragedies, 12 air rage incidents, 44 postpartum depression cases, over 600 murders (homicides), over 180 murder-suicides and other acts of violence including workplace violence. These cases only represent a tiny fraction of the possible cases, since medication use is rarely reported in the media.)….

Lie # 12: 

“Antidepressant drugs can prevent suicides”

In actuality, there is no psychiatric drug that is FDA-approved for the prevention of suicidality because these drugs, especially the so-called antidepressants, actually INCREASE the incidence of suicidal thinking, suicide attempts and completed suicides….

Lie # 13:

America’s school shooters and other mass shooters are ‘untreated’ schizophrenics who should have been taking psych drugs”

Lie # 14:

“If your patient hears voices it means he’s a schizophrenic”

The very sobering information revealed above should cause any thinking person, patient, thought-leader or politician to wonder: “how many otherwise normal or potentially curable people over the last half century of Big Pharma propaganda  have actually been mis-labeled as mentally ill (and then mis-treated as mentally ill) and sent down the convoluted path of therapeutic misadventures – heading toward oblivion?”

In my mental health care practice, I personally treated hundreds of patients who had been given a series of confusing and contradictory mental illness labels, many of which had been one of the new “diseases of the month” for which there was a new psych “drug of the month” that was being heavily marketed on TV or by the drug company sales staffs.

Many of my patients had simply been victims of unpredictable and un-forseeable drug-drug interactions (far too often drug-drug-drug-drug interactions) or simply adverse reactions to psych drugs which had been erroneously diagnosed as a new mental illness. Extrapolating from my 1200 patient experience (in my little isolated section of the world) to what surely must be happening all over America boggles my mind. There has been a massive iatrogenic (doctor- or drug-caused) epidemic going on right under our noses that has affected tens of millions of suffering victims who could have been cured if not for the drugs.

The time to act on this knowledge is long overdue.

Note that the article above is abbreviated

Complete unabbreviated version below

Detailed and unabridged

Lie # 1:

“The FDA (US Food and Drug Administration) tests all new psychiatric drugs”

False. Actually the FDA only reviews studies that were designed, administered, secretly performed and paid for by the multinational profit-driven drug companies. The studies are frequently farmed out by the pharmaceutical companies to be done by well-paid research firms, in whose interest it is to find positive results for their corporate employers. Unsurprisingly, such research policies virtually guarantee fraudulent results.

Lie # 2: 

“FDA approval means that a psychotropic drug is effective long-term”

False. Actually, FDA approval doesn’t even mean that psychiatric drugs have been proven to be safe – either short-term or long-term! The notion that FDA approval means that a psych drug has been proven to be effective is also a false one, for most such drugs are never tested – prior to marketing – for longer than a few months (and most psych patients take their drugs for years). The pharmaceutical industry pays many psychiatric “researchers” – often academic psychiatrists (with east access to compliant, chronic, already drugged-up patients) who have financial or professional conflicts of interest – some of them even sitting on FDA advisory committees who attempt to “fast track” psych drugs through the approval process. For each new drug application, the FDA only receives 1 or 2 of the “best” studies (out of many) that purport to show short-term effectiveness. The negative studies are shelved and not revealed to the FDA. In the case of the SSRI drugs, animal lab studies typically lasted only hours, days or weeks and the human clinical studies only lasted, on average, 4- 6 weeks, far too short to draw any valid conclusions about long-term effectiveness or safety!

Hence the FDA, prescribing physicians and patient-victims should not have been “surprised” by the resulting epidemic of SSRI drug-induced adverse reactions that are silently plaguing the nation. Indeed, many SSRI trials have shown that those drugs are barely more effective than placebo (albeit statistically significant!) with unaffordable economic costs and serious health risks, some of which are life-threatening and known to be capable of causing brain damage.

Lie # 3:

 “FDA approval means that a psychotropic drug is safe long-term”

False. Actually, the SSRIs and the “anti-psychotic” drugs are usually tested in human trials for only a couple of months before being granted marketing approval by the FDA. And the drug companies are only required to report 1 or 2 studies (even if many other studies on the same drug showed negative, even disastrous,  results). Drug companies obviously prefer that the black box and fine print warnings associated with their drugs are ignored by both consumers and prescribers. One only has to note how small the print is on the commercials.

In our fast-paced shop-until-you-drop consumer society, we super-busy prescribing physicians and physician assistants have never been fully aware of the multitude of dangerous, potentially fatal adverse psych drug effects that include addiction, mania, psychosis, suicidality, worsening depression, worsening anxiety, insomnia, akathisia, brain damage, dementia, homicidality, violence, etc, etc.

But when was the last time anybody heard the FDA or Big Pharma apologize for the damage they did in the past? And when was the last time there were significant punishments (other than writs slaps and “chump change” multimillion dollar fines) or prison time for the CEOs of the guilty multibillion dollar drug companies?

Lie # 4:

 “Mental ‘illnesses’ are caused by ‘brain chemistry imbalances’”

False. In actuality, brain chemical/neurotransmitter imbalances have never been proven to exist (except for cases of neurotransmitter depletions caused by psych drugs) despite vigorous examinations of lab animal or autopsied human brains and brain slices by neuroscientist s who were employed by well-funded drug companies. Knowing that there are over 100 known neurotransmitter systems in the human brain, proposing a theoretical chemical ”imbalance” is laughable and flies in the face of science. Not only that, but if there was an imbalance between any two of the 100 potential systems (impossible to prove), a drug – that has never been tested on more than a handful of them – could never be expected to re-balance it!

Such simplistic theories have been perpetrated by Big Pharma upon a gullible public and a gullible psychiatric industry because corporations that want to sell the public on their unnecessary products know that they have to resort to 20 second sound bite-type propaganda to convince patients and prescribing practitioners why they should be taking or prescribing synthetic, brain-altering drugs that haven’t been adequately tested.

Lie # 5:

“Antidepressant drugs work like insulin for diabetics”

False. This laughingly simplistic – and very anti-scientific – explanation for the use of dangerous and addictive synthetic drugs is patently absurd and physicians and patients who believe it should be ashamed of themselves for falling for it. There is such a thing as an insulin deficiency (but only in type 1 diabetes) but there is no such thing as a Prozac deficiency. SSRIs (so-called Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitors – an intentional mis-representation because those drugs are NOT selective!) do not raise total brain serotonin. Rather, SSRIs actually deplete serotonin long-term while only “goosing” serotonin release at the synapse level while at the same time interfere with the storage, reuse and re-cycling of serotonin (by its “serotonin reuptake inhibition” function).

(Parenthetically, the distorted “illogic” of the insulin/diabetes comparison above could legitimately be made in the case of the amino acid brain nutrient tryptophan, which is the precursor molecule of the important natural neurotransmitter serotonin.  If a serotonin deficiency or “imbalance” could be proven, the only logical treatment approach would be to supplement the diet with the serotonin precursor tryptophan rather than inflict upon the brain a brain-altering synthetic chemical that actually depletes serotonin long-term!

Lie # 6:

“SSRI ‘discontinuation syndromes’ are different than ‘withdrawal syndromes’”

False. The SSRI “antidepressant” drugs are indeed dependency-inducing/addictive and the neurological and psychological symptoms that occur when these drugs are stopped or tapered down are not “relapses” into a previous ”mental disorder” – as has been commonly asserted – but are actually new drug withdrawal symptoms that are different from those that prompted the original diagnosis

The term “discontinuation syndrome” is part of a cunningly-designed conspiracy that was plotted in secret by members of the psychopharmaceutical industry  in order to deceive physicians into thinking that these drugs are not addictive.  The deception has been shamelessly promoted to distract attention from the proven fact that most psych drugs are dependency-inducing and are therefore likely to cause “discontinuation/withdrawal symptoms” when they are stopped. The drug industry knows that most people do not want to swallow dependency-inducing drugs that are likely to cause painful, even lethal withdrawal symptoms when they cut down the dose of the drug.

Lie # 7:

“Ritalin is safe for children (or adults)”

False. In actuality, methylphenidate (= Ritalin, Concerta, Daytrana, Metadate and Methylin; aka “kiddie cocaine”), a dopamine reuptake inhibitor drug, works exactly like cocaine on dopamine synapses, except that orally-dosed methylphenidate reaches the brain more slowly than snortable or smoked cocaine does. Therefore the oral form has less of an orgasmic “high” than cocaine. Cocaine addicts actually prefer Ritalin if they can get it in a relatively pure powder form. When snorted, the synthetic Ritalin (as opposed to the naturally-occurring, and therefore more easily metabolically-degraded cocaine) has the same onset of action but, predictably, has a longer lasting “high” and is thus preferred among addicted individuals. The molecular structures of Ritalin and cocaine both have amphetamine base structures with ring-shaped side chains which, when examined side by side, are remarkably similar. The dopamine synaptic organelles in the brain (and heart, blood vessels, lungs and guts) are unlikely to sense any difference between the two drugs.

Lie # 8:

“Psychoactive drugs are totally safe for humans”

False. See Myth # 3 above. Actually all five classes of psychotropic drugs have, with long-term use, been found to be neurotoxic (ie, known to destroy or otherwise alter the physiology, chemistry, anatomy and viability of vital energy-producing mitochondria in every brain cell and nerve). They are therefore all capable of contributing to dementia when used long-term.

Any synthetic chemical that is capable of crossing the blood-brain barrier into the brain can alter and disable the brain. Synthetic chemical drugs are NOT capable of healing brain dysfunction, curing malnutrition or reversing brain damage. Rather than curing anything, psychiatric drugs are only capable of masking symptoms while the abnormal emotional, neurological or malnutritional processes that mimic “mental illnesses” continue unabated.

Lie # 9:

“Mental ‘illnesses’ have no known cause”

False. The root causes of my patient’s understandable emotional distress were typically multiple, but the vast majority of my patients had experienced easily identifiable chronic sexual, physical, psychological, emotional and/or spiritual traumas as root causes – often accompanied by hopelessness, sleep deprivation, serious emotional or physical neglect and brain nutrient deficiencies as well…

My practice consisted mostly of patients who knew for certain that they were being sickened by months or years of swallowing one or more brain-altering, addictive prescription drugs that they couldn’t get off of by themselves. I discovered that many of them could have been cured early on in their lives if they only had access – and could afford – compassionate psychoeducational psychotherapy, proper brain nutrition and help with addressing issues of deprivation, parental neglect/abuse, poverty and other destructive psychosocial situations. I came to the sobering realization that many of my patients could have been cured years earlier if it hadn’t been for the disabling effects of psychiatric drug regimens, isolation, loneliness, punitive incarcerations, solitary confinement, discrimination, malnutrition, and/or electroshock. The neurotoxic and brain-disabling drugs, vaccines and frankenfoods that most of my patients had been given early on had started them on the road to chronicity and disability.

Lie # 10: 

“Psychotropic drugs have nothing to do with the huge increase in disabled and unemployable American psychiatric patients”

False. Many commonly-prescribed drugs are fully capable of causing brain-damage long-term, especially the anti-psychotics (aka, “major tranquilizers”) like Thorazine, Haldol, Prolixin, Clozapine, Abilify, Clozapine, Fanapt, Geodon, Invega, Risperdal, Saphris, Seroquel and Zyprexa, all of which can cause brain shrinkage…

Of course, highly addictive “minor” tranquilizers like the benzodiazepines (Valium, Ativan, Klonopin, Librium, Tranxene, Xanax) can cause the same withdrawal syndromes. They are all dangerous and very difficult to withdraw from (withdrawal results in difficult-to-treat rebound insomnia, panic attacks, and seriously increased anxiety), and, when used long-term, they can all cause memory loss/dementia, the loss of IQ points and the high likelihood of being mis-diagnosed as Alzheimer’s disease (of unknown etiology).

Lie # 11:

So-called bipolar disorder can mysteriously ‘emerge’ in patients who have been taking stimulating antidepressants like the SSRIs”

False. In actuality, crazy-making behaviors like mania, agitation and aggression are commonly caused by the SSRIs (Prozac [fluoxetine], Paxil [paroxetine], Zoloft [sertraline], Celexa [citalopram] and Lexapro [escitalopram). That list of adverse drug effects includes a syndrome called akathisia, a severe, sometimes suicide-inducing internal restlessness – like having restless legs syndrome over one’s entire body and brain. Akathisia was once understood to only occur as a long-term adverse effect of antipsychotic drugs (See Myth # 10). So it was a shock to many psychiatrists (after Prozac came to market in 1987) to have to admit that SSRIs could also cause that deadly problem. It has long been my considered opinion that SSRIs should more accurately be called “agitation-inducing” drugs rather than “anti-depressant” drugs.

The important point to make is that SSRI-induced mania, agitation, akathisia and aggression is NOT bipolar disorder, and SSRI-induced psychosis is NOT schizophrenia! (Go to www.ssristories.net, to read over 5000 documented stories about SSRI-induced aberrant behaviors, including 48 school shootings/incidents, 52 road rage tragedies, 12 air rage incidents, 44 postpartum depression cases, over 600 murders (homicides), over 180 murder-suicides and other acts of violence including workplace violence. These cases only represent a tiny fraction of the possible cases, since medication use is rarely reported in the media.)

Lie # 12: 

“Antidepressant drugs can prevent suicides”

False. In actuality, there is no psychiatric drug that is FDA-approved for the prevention of suicidality because these drugs, especially the so-called antidepressants, actually INCREASE the incidence of suicidal thinking, suicide attempts and completed suicides. Drug companies have spent billions of dollars futilely trying to prove the effectiveness of various psychiatric drugs in suicide prevention. Even the most corrupted drug company trials have failed! The fact remains that all the so-called “antidepressants” actually increase the incidence of suicidality.

The FDA has required black box warning labels about drug-induced suicidality on all SSRI marketing materials, but that was only accomplished after over-coming vigorous opposition from the drug-makers and marketers of the offending drugs, who feared that such truth-telling would hurt their profits (it hasn’t). What can and does avert suicidality, of course, are not drugs, but rather interventions by caring, compassionate and thorough teams of care-givers that include family, faith communities and friends as well as psychologists, counselors, social workers, relatives (especially wise grandmas!), and, obviously, the limited involvement of drug prescribers.

Lie # 13:

America’s school shooters and other mass shooters are ‘untreated’ schizophrenics who should have been taking psych drugs”

False. In actuality, 90% or more of the infamous homicidal –  and usually suicidal – school shooters have already been under the “care” of psychiatrists (or other psych drug prescribers) and therefore have typically been taking (or withdrawing from) one or more psychiatric drugs.  SSRIs (such as Prozac) and psychostimulants (such as Ritalin) have been the most common classes of drugs involved. Antipsychotics are too sedating, although an angry teen who is withdrawing from antipsychotics could easily become a school shooter if given access to lethal weapons.

The 10% of school shooters whose drug history is not known, have typically had their medical files sealed by the authorities – probably to protect authorities such as the drug companies and/or the medical professionals who supplied the drugs. The powerful drug industry and psychiatry lobby, with the willing help of the media that profits from their advertising revenues, repeatedly show us the photos of the shooters that look like zombies. They have successfully gotten the viewing public to buy the notion that these  adolescent, white male school shooters were mentally ill rather than under the influence of their crazy-making, brain-altering drugs – or going through withdrawal.

Contrary to the claims of a recent 60 Minutes program segment about “untreated schizophrenics” being responsible for half of the mass shootings in America, the four mentioned in the segment were, in fact, almost certainly already being “treated” with psych drugs – prior to the massacres – by psychiatrists who obviously are being protected from public identification and/or interrogation by the authorities as accomplices (or at least witnesses) to the crimes.

Because of this secrecy, the public is being kept in the dark about exactly what crazy-making, homicidality-inducing psychotropic drugs could have been involved. The names of the drugs and the multinational corporations that have falsely marketed them as safe are also being actively protected from scrutiny, and thus the chance of prevention of future drug-related shootings or suicides is being squandered. Such decisions by America’s ruling elites represent public health policy at its worst and is a disservice to past and future shooting victims and their loved ones.

The four most notorious mass shooters that were highlighted in the aforementioned 60 Minutes segment included the Virginia Tech shooter, the Tucson shooter, the Aurora shooter and the Sandy Hook shooter whose wild-eyed (actually “drugged-up”) photos had been carefully chosen for their dramatic “zombie-look” effect, so that most frightened, paranoid Americans are convinced that it was a crazy “schizophrenic”, rather than a victim of psychoactive, brain-altering, crazy-making drugs that may have made them do the evil deeds.

Parenthetically, it needs to be emphasized that many media outlets profit handsomely from the drug and medical industries. Therefore those outlets have an incentive to protect the names of the drugs, the names of the drug companies, the names of the prescribing MDs and the names of the clinics and hospitals that could, in a truly just and democratic world, otherwise be linked to the crimes. Certainly if a methamphetamine-intoxicated person shot someone, the person who supplied the intoxicating drug would be considered an accomplice to the crime, just like the bartender who supplied the liquor to someone who later killed someone in a car accident could be held accountable. A double standard obviously exists when it comes to powerful, respected and highly profitable corporations.

A thorough study of the scores of American school shooters, starting with the University of Texas tower shooter in 1966 and (temporarily) stopping at Sandy Hook, reveals that the overwhelming majority of them (if not all of them) were taking brain-altering, mesmerizing, impulse-destroying, “don’t give a damn” drugs that had been prescribed to them by well-meaning but too-busy psychiatrists, family physicians or physician assistants who somehow were unaware of or were misinformed about the homicidal and suicidal risks to their equally unsuspecting patients (and therefore they had failed to warn the patient and/or the patient’s loved ones about the potentially dire consequences).

Most practitioners who wrote the prescriptions for the mass shooters or for a patient who later suicided while under the influence of the drug, will probably defend themselves against the charge of being an accomplice to mass murder or suicide by saying that they were ignorant about the dangers of these cavalierly prescribed psych drugs because they had been deceived by the drug companies that had convinced them of their benign nature.

Lie # 14:

“If your patient hears voices it means he’s a schizophrenic”

False. Auditory hallucinations are known to occur in up to 10% of normal people; and up to 75% of normal people have had the experience of someone that isn’t there calling their name. (http://www.hearing-voices.org/voices-visions/). It doesn’t mean you are crazy.

Nighttime dreams, nightmares and flashbacks probably have similar origins to daytime visual, auditory and olfactory hallucinations, but many psychiatrists don’t necessarily think that they represent mental illnesses. Indeed, hallucinations are listed in the pharmaceutical literature as potential side effects or withdrawal symptoms of many drugs, especially psychiatric drugs. These syndromes are called substance-induced psychotic disorders which are, by definition, neither mental illnesses nor schizophrenia. Rather, substance-induced or withdrawal-induced psychotic disorders are temporary and directly caused by the intoxicating effects of malnutrition or brain-altering drugs such as alcohol, medications, hallucinogenic drugs and other toxins.

Psychotic symptoms, including hallucinations and delusions, can be caused by substances such as alcohol, marijuana, hallucinogens, sedatives, hypnotics, and anxiolytics, inhalants, opioids, PCP, and the many of the amphetamine-like drugs (like Phen-Fen, [fenfluramine]), cocaine, methamphetamine, Ecstasy, and, of course, agitation-inducing, psycho-stimulating drugs like the SSRIs).

Psychotic symptoms can also result from sleep deprivation, sensory deprivation and the withdrawal from certain drugs like alcohol, sedatives, hypnotics, anxiolytics and especially the many dopamine-suppressing, dependency-inducing, sedating, and zombifying anti-psychotic drugs.

Examples of other medications that may induce hallucinations and delusions include anesthetics, analgesics, anticholinergic agents, anticonvulsants, antihistamines, antihypertensive and cardiovascular medications, some antimicrobial medications, anti-parkinsonian drugs, some chemotherapeutic agents, corticosteroids, some gastrointestinal medications, muscle relaxants, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory medications, and Antabuse.

The very sobering information revealed above should cause any thinking person, patient, thought-leader or politician to wonder: “how many otherwise normal or potentially curable people over the last half century of psych drug propaganda  have actually been mis-labeled as mentally ill (and then mis-treated as mentally ill) and sent down the convoluted path of therapeutic misadventures – heading toward oblivion?”

Bibliography

(Authors and books that were used as background for the assertions in the above article)

Toxic PsychiatryYour Drug May Be Your ProblemTalking Back to ProzacMedication Madness: by Peter Breggin; 

Prozac Backlash; and The Antidepressant Solution: A Step-by-Step Guide to Safely Overcoming Antidepressant Withdrawal, Dependence, and “Addiction”: by Joseph Glenmullen; 

Mad In America: Bad Science, Bad Medicine, and the Enduring Mistreatment of the Mentally Ill; and Anatomy of an Epidemic: Magic Bullets, Psychiatric Drugs, and the Astonishing Rise of Mental Illness in America:  by Robert Whitaker; 

Soteria: Through Madness To Deliverance: by Loren Mosher and Voyce Hendrix; Deadly Medicines and Organised Crime: How Big Pharma has Corrupted Healthcare: by Peter Goetzsche; 

Rethinking Psychiatric Drugs: A Guide for Informed Consent; and Drug-Induced Dementia: A Perfect Crime: by Grace Jackson; 

The Truth About the Drug Companies: How They Deceive Us and What to Do About It: by Marcia Angell; 

Let Them Eat Prozac: The Unhealthy Relationship Between the Pharmaceutical  Industry and Depression; and The Antidepressant Era: by David Healy; 

Blaming the Brain: The TRUTH About Drugs and Mental Health; by Elliot Valenstein; 

Selling Sickness; How the World’s Biggest Pharmaceutical Companies Are Turning Us All Into Patients: by Ray Moynihan and Alan Cassels; 

Our Daily Meds: How the Pharmaceutical Companies Transformed Themselves into Slick Marketing Machines and Hooked the Nation on Prescription Drugs: by Melody Petersen; 

Excitotoxins: by Russell Blaylock;

The Crazy Makers: How the Food Industry is Destroying our Brains and Harming our Children: Carol Simontacchi. 

Dr Gary Kohls is a retired physician from Duluth, MN, USA. In the decade prior to his retirement, he practiced what could best be described as “holistic (non-drug) and preventive mental health care”. Since his retirement, he has written a weekly column for the Duluth Reader, an alternative newsweekly magazine.

His columns mostly deal with the dangers of American imperialism, friendly fascism, corporatism, militarism, racism, and the dangers of Big Pharma, psychiatric drugging, the over-vaccinating of children and other movements that threaten American democracy, civility, health and longevity and the future of the planet. 

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The day after the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers gave the owners of the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) the final permit it neededto build its line across Lake Oahe, which connects to the Missouri River, a natural gas liquids pipeline owned by one of the DAPLco-owners exploded and erupted in flames in Paradis, Louisiana.  Paradis is located 22 miles away from New Orleans.

That line, the VP Pipeline/EP Pipeline, was purchased from Chevron in August 2016 by DAPL co-owner Phillips 66. One employee of Phillips 66 is presumed dead as a result of the explosion and two were injured.

In a press release published by Phillips 66 announcing its purchase of VP/EP, the company stated that “approximately 200 miles of regulated pipelines that carry raw NGLs from a third-party natural gas processing plant.” A DeSmog investigation shows that the “third-party natural gas processing plant” is owned by the company Targa Resources, and that plant is fed in part by a gas pipeline owned by Enbridge, another co-owner of Dakota Access.

Merchant of Venice

The Targa Resources plant is also known as the VESCO facility, with VESCO shorthand for the Venice Energy Services Company, located in Venice, Louisiana.

“Through the Partnership’s 76.8% ownership interest in Venice Energy Services Company, L.L.C., [Targa] operates the Venice gas plant…and the Venice Gathering System (‘VGS’) that is approximately 150 miles in length,” explains Targa’s 2016 U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Annual Report.

“VESCO receives unprocessed gas directly or indirectly from seven offshore pipelines and gas gathering systems including the VGS system. VGS gathers natural gas from the shallow waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico and supplies the VESCO gas plant.”

Enterprise Product Partners and ONEOK serve as co-owners of VESCO. Among the seven pipelines connected to VESCO, one is owned by Enbridge, the Mississippi Canyon Gas Line. That Line feeds gas extracted from the Gulf of Mexico via two offshore wells owned by Shell, as well as other companies, according to Enbridge’s website.

Targa’s Venice Gathering System is fed by Gulf of Mexico offshore gas drilled by ChevronApache Corporation and other companies, according to the Venice Gathering System website. VP Pipeline/EP Pipeline is part of what is known as the Texaco Expanded NGL Distribution System (TENDS), which Phillips 66 has acquired and renamed the River Parish NGL System.

“The $70 million TENDS project is an important element in TNGI’s South Louisiana strategy embracing growth and development of new business,” Texaco, since purchased by Chevron, said in a 1997 press release. “TENDS consists of a network of pipelines capable of transporting a combined maximum of 230,000 barrels of product each day to numerous refineries and petrochemical complexes across South Louisiana.”

According to Reuters, VP Pipeline/EP Pipeline carries a natural gas liquid mix known as “y-grade.”

“After being extracted in the field, mixed NGLs, sometimes referred to as ‘Y-grade’ or ‘raw NGL mix,’ are typically transported to a centralized facility for fractionation where the mixed NGLs are separated into discrete NGL products: ethane, ethane-propane mix, propane, normal butane, iso-butane and natural gasoline,” states Targa’s website of the mix.

Aging Pipelines

The New Orleans Advocate reported that VP Pipeline/EP Pipeline opened for business originally as a pipeline in 1958. Like the line that connects to Dakota Access, the Energy Transfer Crude Oil Pipeline (ETCOP), it is decades old.

Built in 1947, ETCOP will carry the oil obtained from hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) via North Dakota’s Bakken Shale basin from Patoka, Illinois to Nederland, Texas. ETCOP was formerly known as the Trunkline Pipeline, which carried gas from south to north.

Aging pipelines are seen as a major issue that could create catastrophes like those seen in Paradis, where the fire lasted for days until officials finally got it under control. The 2013 ExxonMobil-owned Pegasus Pipeline spill in Mayflower, Arkansas, which saw 3,190 barrels (134,000 gallons) spew out of the line, ensued on an aging pipeline constructed between 1947-1948.

“About 55% of the 135,000 miles of oil and gasoline pipelines in the U.S. was installed in 1969 or earlier, according to government data,” reported CNN in September. “That’s before current safety regulations were in effect, Many are still cast iron pipes.”

The BlueGreen Alliance, a collaborative of U.S. labor unions and environmental organizations, has pushed for aging pipelines to be repaired as part of a broad employment program. They called the effort the Repairing Our Cities’ Aging Pipelines initiative, or RECAP.

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Terrorism: A History of Violence

February 18th, 2017 by Peter Oborne

Few concepts are as muddled as terrorism but David Anderson, the UK’s outgoing terrorism legislation watchdog, has brought insight and scrutiny to bear on one of the defining issues of our age, writes Peter Oborne

Politicians of all parties and many countries have sought to persuade their societies that terrorism is a unique and special form of crime.

They place terrorists in a category of psychopathic evil, marked out by their capacity for inhuman violence. They place terrorists beyond the pale of civilised society and, therefore, beyond the reach of negotiation and settlement. They say that terrorism is the most dangerous and gravest problem of our time.

Most of this political narrative is self-seeking nonsense. It allows politicians to strike resolute poses. It allows them to seek and obtain special powers and to expend huge sums on combatting terrorist threats, to the great benefit of defence and security interests, both public and private.

Few concepts are more widely discussed than terrorism, and few as poorly understood

Few concepts are more widely discussed than terrorism, and few as poorly understood. The idea is constantly reinvented, reshaped and distorted to fit transient political agendas.

As a result it has become muddled. There is no accepted definition. Many authoritarian regimes use the term to disparage legitimate opponents. Saudi ArabiaEgypt and most of the Gulf States describe political parties which advocate peaceful democratic change as ‘terrorist’.

Meanwhile in Britain the concept has been reshaped so that it does not apply only to acts of violence, but also to a range of activities which fall well short of violence. Terrorists are defined not only as men of violence, but also those whose views can be depicted as threats to the British state or the values and way of life of the majority of its people. In this way the concept has become part of the apparatus of state harassment.

The terror of a government

The word “terrorism” was invented after the French Revolution. Following the fall of the Bourbon dynasty in 1793, the government of the new French Republic fell into more and more radical and extreme hands, each with an increasingly shallow political base. The last of these, headed by Robespierre, applied a special regime of executions of its opponents, based on denunciation without trial. They described this themselves as the “Terror” and their policy entered the dictionary as “Terrorism”.

 

The execution of Robespierre and his supporters in Paris on 28 July 1794 (Bibliotheque Nationale de France)

 

Significantly, the word began its life with a capital T as a proper noun  – and it described a policy adopted by an organised government, not an insurrectionary group.

The Oxford English Dictionary recognised this when it defined terrorism as “government by intimidation as directed and carried out by the party in power” [my italics]. If that usage had survived, most of the governments in the world today would be defined as terrorist.

Instead it fell into disuse, only reappearing again in the mid 19th-century. This time, it was a way of getting to grips with anarchist violence, particularly that directed against the Tsarist regime in Russia. The term “terrorism”, without a capital letter, gained currency in the 50 years before World War One as the result of high-profile attacks on ruling dynasties and government ministers in Europe and on American presidents James A Garfield and William McKinley.

Joseph Conrad’s novel, The Secret Agent, concerns one such group, while Fyodor Dostoyevsky’s Devils places terrorism in a Russian context. The term covered a wide variety of perpetrators of violence, some isolated and self-directed assassins, others in well-organised movements with clear political objectives, such as the Irish Fenians.

It is worth noting that many terrorist movements of that period, particularly in Russia, were thoroughly infiltrated, and even sponsored, by governments.

The word almost vanished again after the outbreak of World War One for around half a century.

The disappearance is instructive. World war and totalitarianism changed the perspective. The years 1914-45 saw bloodshed and horror on a scale that makes the assassinations and other outrages committed by anarchists and nationalists in the west before 1914 – or for that matter Islamic terrorists after 2001 – inconsequential.

What makes a terrorist?

But we should notice something else. Terrorism in its original sense – the use of violence by a government for political purposes against its internal enemies – describes a great deal of what happened after 1914 with stunning accuracy. The assaults on the Russian population by Stalin, the atrocities of Mao’s communists, the assaults by Hitler’s armies on the civilian populations of Europe (though not the Holocaust, which was genocide) all fit into the original Oxford English Dictionary definition.

But these governments were rarely described as terrorist.

The King David Hotel in Jerusalem, bombed by the Irgun in 1946, while under the British mandate (Jerusalem Post)

 

George Orwell, that attentive student of political language, went to Spain in the late 1930s and described the atrocities carried out by Franco’s army and its communist opponents during the Spanish civil war. Not once, as far as I can discover, did he use the word “terrorism”.

Yet a great deal of what he reported would today be regarded as exactly that. Indeed, Orwell himself could have been classified as a terrorist under contemporary British law as a consequence of fighting with an anarchist militia in the civil war.

Immediately following the Second World War, Britain faced violent uprisings in Kenya, Aden, Malaysia, Palestine and elsewhere. There is no doubt that these would have been labelled terrorist movements today.

However, the British rarely used this term – largely because these uprisings took place in distant colonies which they intended ultimately to abandon. Moreover, there was widespread international sympathy, especially in the United States, for the anti-colonial movements against the British.

Other imperial powers, particularly the French in Algeria, were more determined to hold on to their possessions and identified them as part of their state. They characterised their opponents as terrorists and often used terrorist methods (in the original sense) against them.

How 9/11 changed the definition

Terrorism came back into extensive use in the late 1960s and 1970s. This time it was largely associated with nationalist groups, above all the IRA, PLO and ETA, as well as the urban guerrilla movements which briefly gained traction in Europe and South America, the most notorious of which was Baader Meinhof. All of these movements were identified as threats to the security, even existence, of the host state.

Fear of terror has recast the way we live together as society, causing us repeatedly to change the law

In Britain the IRA’s activities differed from the anti-colonial uprisings the British had faced after the war because the IRA demanded a transfer of territory from the state of the United Kingdom, and even more because they caused civilian deaths on the British mainland. They inspired a range of measures previously thought unthinkable in peacetime (such as preventive arrest and internment), all based on the premise that the IRA’s crimes were in the special category of “terrorism.” Significantly, the British government had regular difficulty enlisting the support of the United States, where the IRA attracted a wide measure of sympathy.

Moreover, even at the height of the IRA offensives, the British governments concerned never closed the door to negotiation.

Aftermath of an IRA bomb attack on a street near Whitehall, London on 8 March 1973 (AFP)

 

Only since the al-Qaeda attack on America on 11 September 2001 have western leaders identified terrorism as the most serious problem of our time. George W Bush launched his “war on terror” while Tony Blair, in 2004, thought that Islamic terror was an “existential” problem which would take a “generation” to solve.

Fear of terror has recast the way we live together as society, causing us repeatedly to change the law. In Britain new anti-terrorism laws have awarded fresh powers to the state. They include the Anti-Terrorism Crime and Security Act 2001, which was put on the statute book immediately after 9/11; the Criminal Justice (International Cooperation ) Act 2003; the Prevention of Terrorism Act 2005; the Terrorism Act 2006; the Counter-Terrorism Act 2008, the Terrorist Asset-Freezing Act 2010; the Terrorism Prevention and Investigation Measures Act 2011; and the Protection of Freedoms Act 2012.

A voice of reason on terror

David Anderson, Independent Reviewer of Terrorism Legislation

Such was the environment inherited by David Anderson when he was appointed Independent Reviewer of Terrorism Legislation in February 2011. Anderson was a successful commercial barrister. He had no pre-conceived ideas or even experience in the field, although his clients included members of the Bin Laden family business. He had no known political allegiances.

Nevertheless, he has redefined the job of Terrorism Reviewer. His predecessor Alex Carlile, a former Lib Dem MP, had won the trust of the security services. However, Carlile is thought to have had less success at engaging with Muslim communities, which were most viscerally affected by the new terrorism legislation.

Anderson set out on a mission of open-minded enquiry. He made it known that he was keen to meet not just the intelligence services but everyone. He listened to Cage, the controversial advocacy group which describes its mission as “working to empower communities impacted by the War on Terror”, and the former Guantanamo detainee Moazzam Begg. He also dealt with the government-sponsored Quilliam Foundation, viewed with suspicion by many Muslims.

He soon wondered whether the word “terrorism” was an obstacle. Anderson wrote in 2013:

Many advanced countries managed until recently without special terrorism laws of any kind. The terror label – evocative as it is – risks distorting a thing to which it is attached by its sheer emotional power. Terrorism stands for everything that is extreme, dangerous, frightening and secret – qualities which render it glamorous to all who associate with it.

Seasoned criminals in Northern Ireland, chiefly concerned with enriching themselves by the smuggling of tobacco or of diesel, may profit from the status of terrorist to improve their standing in the sub-communities of sympathisers – thankfully now small and local ones – to which they belong. British Muslims travel to lawless parts of the world, seduced as young men have always been by the certainties of strong belief and the romance of hardship, comradeship and conflict.

The terror label – evocative as it is – risks distorting a thing to which it is attached by its sheer emotional power

– David Anderson, Independent Reviewer of Terrorism Legislation

Terrorism can make the careers of political leaders, prosecutors, journalists, lawyers and activists. It swells the budgets of military and intelligence services, publishers, universities and film studios. The police officer transferred to a counter-terrorism unit walks that bit taller. The provider of security fences or CCTV profits from the stardust that comes from appearing with 400 other exhibitors and 8,000 delegates at ‘an operationally critical two day event’.

All these people are, by the mere use of the T-word, taken out of the normal vocabulary of crime, government, commerce or academe into a mental space that is inhabited by Robespierre, Irish dynamiters, Russian anarchists, Olympic hostage-takers, mujahideen, desert emirs and, on the other side of the fence, Special Branch, undercover agents, Navy seals and drones. All have a shared interest in the problem being a serious and frightening one.

The very word has such magnetic qualities that ordinary compasses are not to be trusted anywhere near it. It might have been preferable if it had never found its way into the law. For our more sober juridical purposes, something more prosaic – politically motivated violent crime, perhaps – might have been more suitable.

But it is too late for that. The concept is now considered to be a legal one, for better or worse. We need to shield our compasses and try to work out how (if at all) these special laws are to be justified.

Anderson then went further. He questioned whether terrorism was such a big deal. He poured cold water on the idea that terrorism presents a “uniquely great threat to our lives and well-being”. He noted that “the shadow of the 9/11 attacks, with their 2,800 dead, is inescapable.”

The cockpit of Pan Am 103 after it exploded and crashed over Lockerbie,
Scotland in December 1988, killing all 270 people on board (AFP)

However he added: “It is no disrespect to those victims to point out that 180,000 Americans have been murdered other than by terrorists in the years since 9/11 and that the 7/7 victims [of the 7 July 2005 London bombings] remained, at least until May 2013, the only people ever to have been killed by al-Qaeda on United Kingdom soil.”

He soon challenged the fallacy that the only kind of terrorism is Islamic. He reported that there had been 15 acts of terrorism in Northern Ireland in 2015 (22 the year before) – but no Islamic terrorism attacks in Britain at all.

Suppressing free speech

Anderson retained – and this is rare – a historical perspective. It was not long before he rubbished the idea that al-Qaeda’s international networks marked the emergence of a new form of terrorism. He pointed out that Fenian bombing campaigns in London during the 1880s depended on foreign training camps in New York, that the Gunpowder Plotters of 1605 were educated by foreign Jesuits, that explosive expert Guy Fawkes was recruited in Flanders.

He noted that there was nothing new about suicide bombings: “They have a long history in warfare, have accounted for many world leaders in the past, including Alexander II of Russia in 1881, the Tsar who freed the serfs, and [suicide attacks] were much practised during the late 20th century in the Lebanese Civil War and by the Tamil Tigers [in Sri Lanka]”.

The aftermath of a suicide car bomb attack in Shayyah, Beirut in June 2014 (AFP)

 

He further observed that al-Qaeda were “certainly not the first to aim for mass civilian casualties, as the Air India bombing of 1985 and the Lockerbie bombing of 1988 bear witness”.

Most heretical of all, Anderson questioned the need for terrorist laws, at any event as a means of expressing special public revulsion, pointing out that the common law was often enough:

James McArdle, the Canary Wharf bomber, was charged with murder and convicted of conspiracy to cause explosion. The four men whose rucksacks failed to explode in London two weeks after the 7/7 bomb were convicted of conspiracy to murder, as were the eight men accused of the airline liquid bomb plot of 2006. That plot was described by one of the trial judges as the ‘most grave and wicked conspiracy ever proved within the jurisdiction’. It is the origin of the continuing requirement to empty water bottles before getting on a plane. In none of those cases was it suggested that a specialist terrorist offence would more effectively have marked the public mood.

As terrorism reviewer, Anderson has consistently highlighted the danger of using the spectre of terrorism in order to suppress social protest. The classic case concerns David Miranda, detained at Heathrow under Section 7 of the Terrorism Act 2000 in 2013 for carrying files related to information obtained by the whistleblower Edward Snowden. Anderson wrote:

By holding (with faultless logic) that the politically motivated publication of material endangering life or seriously endangering our lives, health or safety can constitute terrorism, the court admitted the possibility that journalists, bloggers and those associated with them could, as a consequence of their writing, be branded as terrorists and subjected to a wide range of penal and executive constraints. The consequences for free speech were very grave.

Anderson is a withering critic of the idea of non-violent extremism (a core part of Theresa May’s Prevent Duty Guidance, which decrees that “being drawn into terrorism includes not just violent extremism, but also non-violent extremism, which can create an atmosphere conducive to terrorism and can popularise views which terrorists exploit”.)

Anderson rubbished the idea that al-Qaeda’s international networks marked the emergence of a new form of terrorism

He warned this means that people who are “miles away” from terror, risk being investigated simply because of their religion, rather than any intent or desire to commit a violent offence.

He has stopped short of calling for Prevent to be scrapped, but he has urged a review of the Prevent strategy and suggested there should be an assessment of Prevent comparable in some ways to his own role as terrorism reviewer.

Armed British police officers patrol central London in September 2010 (AFP)

But Anderson is not a reliable Guardian-reading leftie. He sided with the government on the Investigative Powers Act. To the despair of libertarians, he declared that he had not the “slightest doubt that bulk interception, as it is currently practised, has a valuable role to play in protecting national security”.

His recommendation that this practice should continue subject to “additional safeguards” was denounced by Liberty as “unlawful, unnecessary and disproportionate“.

The need for moral courage

The post of intelligence reviewer dates back more than 40 years, ever since the Prevention of Terrorism (Temporary Provisions) Act became law in the wake of the Birmingham pub bombings of 1974. Mervyn Rees, the home secretary at the time, also announced the creation of an independent reviewer of legislation.

The Prevent strategy sails on, despite Anderson’s criticisms, and the government seems to be on course to press forward with counter-extremism legislation

The first reviewer was Lord Shackleton, son of the famous Antarctic explorer, while the second, Lord Jellicoe, was the son of a World War One admiral. Anderson was approached in the old Whitehall fashion.

“I was offered the part time post of Independent Reviewer by three strangers,” he recalls. “They gained access to my Chambers by subterfuge, having told my clerks that their employer, the Home Office, sought my legal advice. Once in the conference room, they revealed their identities and conveyed the wish of the Home Secretary – to whom I had no connection or political affiliation – that I should accept the job”.

One of Anderson’s achievements has been to update the method of appointment. The next reviewer has come through a formal appointment process, rather than a quiet tap on the shoulders behind the scenes.

Anderson is due to step down shortly. He will leave office in some ways a disappointed man. His recommendations to reduce the scope of the terrorism acts have been systematically ignored by ministers. The Prevent strategy sails on, despite Anderson’s criticisms, and the government seems to be on course to press forward with counter-extremism legislation.

Terrorism remains an offence which governments, however many innocent civilians they slaughter in pursuit of political ends, are unable to commit.

Nevertheless, for six years, David Anderson has been a voice of sanity and a force for good. He has brought intellectual clarity, moral courage, a sense of perspective and, perhaps above all, earned the trust of all sides.

Peter Oborne was named freelancer of the year 2016 by the Online Media Awards for an article he wrote for Middle East Eye. He was British Press Awards Columnist of the Year 2013. He resigned as chief political columnist of the Daily Telegraph in 2015. His books include The Triumph of the Political Class, The Rise of Political Lying, and Why the West is Wrong about Nuclear Iran.

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The massive artillery bombardment of the peoples of the Donbass, that has been raining down shells and fire on them since Christmas, is a war crime of horrific proportions designed to terrorise the people and bring their refusal to be subject to the NATO-installed regime in Kiev to an end. It is also becoming clear that it has a political purpose, which is to increase anti-Russian, pro-NATO propaganda among the Ukrainian people to influence them to vote to join NATO in a referendum, the consequences of which will be dramatic because a vote for NATO will be a vote for war.

On Thursday, February 9, the Frankfurter Allgemeine, of the Funke Mediengruppe newspaper chain, reported that the claimed president of Ukraine, Mr. Poroshenko, intends to hold a referendum on NATO membership. Poroshenko referred to recent opinion polls that indicate 54 per cent of Ukrainians now want to join NATO as opposed to 16 per cent before the NATO-backed coup put his puppet regime in power. This change in opinion is a direct result of the aggression of the Kiev regime against the peoples of eastern Ukraine that refuse to accept the legitimacy or anti-Russian policies of that regime and its fascist allies, which resistance is turned upside down by the western propagandists and described as Russian aggression against Ukraine.

The continuous violations of the Minsk ceasefire accords and the refusal by Kiev to adhere to the steps to be taken to grant the Donbass republics autonomy and protect the rights of their peoples as stipulated in the Minsk agreements, including the right not to be attacked, are shrugged off as irrelevant in the face of the supposed aggression from the east.

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In line with this propaganda, the NATO powers lay all the blame on Russia and portray Ukraine as a helpless victim. The minds of Ukrainians are manipulated to induce them to vote to join NATO; create the circumstances of war, falsely identify the attacked as the attackers, raise fears of “aggression” from Russia, drive the people into seeking the protection of the NATO war alliance.

Poroshenko stated,

As President, I am guided by the views of my people and I will hold a referendum on the issue of NATO membership.

What he really meant to say of course is that “I and my NATO masters have successfully frightened the Ukrainian people with this war, suppressed the opposition, turned Russia into the bogey-man and made the people prisoners of the scenario we created.”

The consequences of such a vote, and of Ukraine being accepted into NATO, would be immediate and disastrous for the Donbass republics and for Russia. For once Ukraine is a member of the NATO alliance logic dictates that the alleged ‘Russian aggression” against Ukraine and the “rebellion” of the Donbass republics will lead to a final offensive to crush the republics once and for all. NATO will not tolerate one of its members facing such an internal war on NATO borders or tolerate an “aggressor” state which it accuses of instigating the “rebellion.” Once Ukraine is part of NATO, Russian “aggression” against Ukraine will be deemed to be “aggression against NATO.”

An offensive will follow and the Donbass republics will either face the fight alone and be crushed by the combined forces of NATO in Ukraine, or they will be supported by Russia leading to a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia. If Russia stays out of the fight, as it has tried to do since 2014, the defeat of the republics and the establishment of large NATO military formations in Ukraine will then constitute a direct and immediate threat against Russia itself that could not be tolerated.

Of course the people of Ukraine will not be informed that this is the logical outcome of a pro-NATO vote, that it will be a vote not for peace but for war. They will be bombarded with cheap American slogans now being used against the American people by the new Trump regime in Washington, that “peace comes through strength,” and will be led like lemmings to their doom.

In line with this strategy we can expect the military pressure on the Donbass republics to increase as spring approaches. We can expect more assassinations of its leadership as we have seen take place with the recent assassination of Mikhail Tolstykh, known as Givi, leader of the Somali battalion of the Donetsk Republic forces, the assassination of the chief of staff of the People’s Army of Lugansk, Colonel Oleg Anaschenko, and the assassination of Colonel Arsen Pavlov of the Donetsk forces, on October 16 of 2016.

And this is exactly what the Kiev minister responsible for the “temporarily occupied territories stated,” Yuri Grymchak,

We believe that in the near future, a year and a half, we will return this territory when its maintenance becomes too expensive for the Russian Federation.

In Washington the Trump administration continues to apply the same strategies as the administrations before it, to threaten retaliation against any nation that refuses to kowtow and Russia is no exception. Despite Trump’s words of supposed moderation towards Russia it is clear from the statements of his ambassador at the UN that the illegal “sanctions” against Russia will continue indefinitely since the American position under Trump remains the same as under Obama; no lifting of “sanctions” unless Crimea is retuned to Ukraine. This will never happen and the Americans know it will never happen. So, essentially the Americans are stating that Crimea is just an excuse to inflict economic damage on Russia until Russia agrees to become just another one of America’s satellite states.

One has only to take note of the flurry of phone calls made by the new American minster of defence, General “Mad Dog” Mattis to a series of flunkies around the world to see what the situation really is. In quick succession General Mattis called, on January 26, the Israeli Defence Minister, then the German minister of Defence and the French Minister of Defence, on January 30th met with King Abdullah of Jordan, called the Korean minister of defence and the Italian minister of defence, on the 31st called the minister of defence of Saudi Arabia, on February 3nd, called the Korean national security adviser and met with the Japanese prime minister in Tokyo, on February 6th called the Canadian minister of defence, on the 7th the President of Afghanistan, and the minister of defence of Mexico, on the 8th the ministers of defence of India and Iraq, on the 9th the minister of defence of Pakistan, and on the 10th met with the German minister of defence at the Pentagon; a very busy agenda.

In every call and meeting, echoing the sycophantic visit by British Prime Minister May to the US earlier, the theme was the same, the NATO alliance is strong, cooperation will continue. In the case of Germany and Japan, Mattis, as the Americans like to do from time to time, reminded the Germans and Japanese of their status as occupied countries by thanking them for “hosting” the American occupation forces.

These calls follow the biggest deployment of US troops in Europe since the end of the so-called Cold War. Russia has branded these forces, which are arriving now arrived in Poland, Ukraine and Romania, a threat to its national security. President Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated,

We perceive it as a threat. These actions threaten our interests, our security especially as it concerns a third party building up its military presence near our borders. The US is not a European state.

A few days later snap air force drills were conducted in Russia and new anti-aircraft and antimissile defence systems were deployed around Moscow.

On the 9th of February Poroshenko signed the document permitting large-scale manoeuvres in Ukraine. On social media a video taken by a Slovak citizen shows a long train transporting NATO armoured personnel carries, tanks, and transport vehicles near the town of Sabinov 100 kilometres west of the Ukraine border heading towards Ukraine, and the Slovaks report that they have seen many of these trains transporting armoured vehicles over the past days, as well as military truck convoys. The local government stated that 6 military trains and 22 military truck convoys will have passed through that one location by Saturday 12 February and that they are to be used in large scale manoeuvres by the Ukrainian army, the Americans and other NATO forces including German, British and Canadian elements.

These are part of larger elements that have been fanning out from the Baltic to Romania threatening Russia along its entire western flank the past few months. If I were the Russian General Staff I would be very edgy. But they have cooler heads than mine and in the lead President Putin. There lies a hope.

Meanwhile, in the west, the anti-war movement is lost in the swamp of the anti-Trump movement that has adopted the anti-Russian rhetoric of the NATO war machine and seems not to notice that Trump is proving just as aggressive as their alternative candidate for power, or worse, does all it can to push him further down the road to war, and seems to be unaware that Trump, who has adopted Reagan’s “peace through strength” rhetoric, does not need pushing.

Christopher Black is an international criminal lawyer based in Toronto. He is known for a number of high-profile war crimes cases and recently published his novel “Beneath the Clouds. He writes essays on international law, politics and world events, especially for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.”

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Hybrid Wars: Is Southern Africa about to Be Shaken Up?

February 18th, 2017 by Andrew Korybko

Commonly thought of as a bastion of peace and stability in the continent ever since the turn of the century, the southern part of Africa is once more returning to the spotlight of global attention. Zimbabwean officials have alleged that the American and French embassies are behind the latest Color Revolution commotion in the country, stating that their ambassadors even met with the movement’s newest leader, Pastor Evan Mawarire, before he began his campaign.

This accusation is echoed by regional leader South Africa, which described the latest tumult as “sponsored elements seeking regime change”. If the US succeeds in its latest Color Revolution plot, then the collapse of Resistant & Defiant Zimbabwe could be the tripwire for automatically setting into motion a preplanned sequence of other destabilizations that might rapidly spread throughout the neighboring countries, thereby returning Southern Africa back to its Cold War-era of conflict and unexpectedly turning it into the New Cold War’s latest battleground.

An Irresistible Target

Harare has always been very close to Moscow and especially Beijing, and this trilateral relationship has only intensified in the past couple of years. China openly stated that Africa is a priority area of its foreign policy and that its relationship with the continent is integral to the country’s sustainable 21st-century economic growth. The $4 billion that President Xi promised Zimbabwe during his December 2015 visit there is expected to form the cornerstone of their future relations and yield tangible market benefits for China, all in accordance with its African grand strategy. Russia, just like China, also has many investments in the centrally positioned Southern African state, though they focus more on minerals and military equipment than on the real-sector economy. Still, when taken together in the complementary context of the Russian-Chinese Strategic Partnership, Moscow and Beijing’s combined interests in Zimbabwe have made it an irresistible target for Washington’s covert campaign.

More broadly speaking, the region of Southern Africa is internationally known for having the most developed infrastructure networks – a key component of China’s One Belt One Road global vision of connectivity – and a relatively skilled labor force in comparison to the rest of Africa, thus also explaining why many companies rely on this part of the continent as their access point to the rest of it. The high level of physical connectivity between the Southern African states means that people and products can move throughout the lower half of the Southern African Development Community with ease, and while this might be a boon for business, it also inherently carries with it very serious security risks if something goes dangerously wrong in one of these states and insurgent and weapons start moving cross-border instead. Because of the economic importance that many global players attach to Southern Africa – China first and foremost among them – and the real risk that they could all be adversely impacted by the American-directed regime change operation in Zimbabwe, it’s relevant to analyze the situation in depth and prognosticate some of its most likely consequences.

New Year, Same Strategy

Zimbabwe’s economic and political woes aren’t anything new, and their present manifestation is actually the evolution of a years-long policy of hostility that the US has been practicing against it. From the implementation of sanctions in the early 2000s to the first Color Revolution attempt in 2008, the US has been persistently trying to undermine President Mugabe for both for the sake of unseating a multipolar leader and because of the regional contagion effect of instability that the Zimbabwean state’s collapse could trigger. Economic warfare against the country was responsible for historic hyperinflation rates of 231 million percent in late-2008, the timing of which was by no means a coincidence. Inflation had been exponentially multiplying in the run-up to the general election in March of that year and the second round that was eventually held in June, and the economic difficulties that Zimbabweans were forced to experience were manufactured by the US in a bid to break the population’s support for the government.

“Opposition” rival Morgan Tsvangirai was ultimately unsuccessful in toppling the government, though Mugabe eventually had to concede to a form of ‘Regime Tweaking’ in appointing him as his Prime Minister. This post was specifically created in order to deal with the Color Revolution crisis and was abolished immediately after the American proxy’s term was up, but during that four-year time, the US hoped to use Tsvangirai to weaken the government from within and subvert its sovereignty-exercising plans to integrate Zimbabwe within the emerging multipolar world order.  It’s clear that the US has been waging asymmetrical warfare on Zimbabwe for years already, and in fact, many of the lessons that it learned throughout this drawn-out operation have presently been applied to Venezuela as well. Furthermore, the riotous disturbances that are rocking the South American country right now have correspondingly proved to be invaluable lessons for the Color Revolutionaries in Zimbabwe, further demonstrating yet another example of interlinked continuity in the US’ indirect adaptive approach to regime change, or Hybrid War.

Perfecting Timing

The latest outbreak of Color Revolution violence was obviously being prepared for a while, but the dual events that prompted its commencement are the signs of an internal power struggle within the ruling ZANU-PF party and Mugabe’s elderly age, with the latter inevitably leading to the former. The President himself has had to address these rumors several times over the past year, chiding his supposed ‘allies’ for already conniving about what they will do once he eventually dies. The popular chatter is that his wife Grace will pick up the reins and carry on her husband’s legacy, but Tsvangirai has already come out against her possible candidacy and is rallying his supporters to oppose her if she chooses to run. With so much political uncertainty in the air, and the economy still in dire straits, the US saw the perfect structural opportunity for asymmetrically striking against the Zimbabwean state and thus revved up its Color Revolutionaries for the coming battle.

Coordinating The Color Revolution

Religion:

As it has been wont to do over the past couple of years in undermining targeted governments, the US is employing a syncretic approach in assembling as diverse of a crowd as possible to partake in the Zimbabwean Color Revolution. The figurehead who the US has designed to publicly lead this campaign is Pastor Evan Mawarire, and they purposely chose a religious representative in order to capitalize off of the piousness that pervades the country’s population. Mawarire was just arrested by the authorities for inciting violence, but the US likely foresaw this event and has plenty of backup plans to exploit its proxy’s ‘official’ ‘religious’ position in order to turn him into a Color Revolution  martyr behind whom the anti-government crowds and their Western government backers can rally.

Economy:

Relatedly, most of the people who are organizing against the government aren’t doing so for explicitly regime change purposes, but rather to allegedly protest against the country’s deteriorating economic conditions and alleged police violence. Truth be told, they’re likely well aware of how their participation feeds into this scenario, but because they’re not publicly announcing it, they’re able to hide behind a thin veneer of ‘plausible deniability’ when they’re accused of being the US’ “useful idiots’. Admittedly, the government itself is responsible for mismanaging part of the country’s economy in response to the US’ disruptive aggression against it, and Mugabe made a major mistake in his 2000 “land reform” package that ultimately ended up destroying Zimbabwe’s agricultural sector, but these incidents in and of themselves should not normally be grounds for launching a violent ‘protest’ movement years after they first occurred.

What’s plausibly occurring then isn’t that some Zimbabweans had a years-long delayed reaction to what has happened to their country, but that these ‘protests’ are engineered by the US as the final form of economic warfare against the country designed to push the fragile system past the tipping point and into a tailspin of collapse. “Stay-away day”, as the first themed protest was called at the beginning of the campaign, was more of a nationwide strike than a protest, and it was meant to instantly exacerbate the country’s economic turmoil and grind society to a halt, which would thereby – as the reasoning suggests – attract more dissatisfied people to the street in joining the burgeoning anti-government movement that the Western media would allege had ‘organically’ sprung up in response. Additionally, this sly form of externally triggered economic civil war (the US’ strategic organization of foreign labor strikers against their own targeted economy) also had the unstated ulterior motive of provoking the authorities into a physical response that could then be used to generate intentionally misleading media reports that in turn induceeven more anti-government hostility among the masses and feed the Color Revolution movement.

Military:

The icing on the cake and the real power multiplier in this entire operation isn’t the Color Revolution figurehead’s religious affiliation or the economic civil war that the US has tried to provoke, but the fact that some respected war veterans from the country’s independence struggle have withdrawn their support for Mugabe and are actively campaigning for his overthrow. They began signaling their discontent earlier this year during a series of government meetings and public statements, but in timed coordination with the Color Revolution that has now broken out, Secretary General of the Zimbabwe National Liberation War Veterans Association (ZNLWVA) Victor Matemadanda proclaimed that “Tsvangirai can be a better enemy because a defined enemy is an enemy you know, but a pretender is much serious, dangerous and can destroy anyone.” He was speaking about the influential G40 faction within the ruling ZANU-PF party that some commentators believe will ascend to power in the wake of Mugabe’s passing, but the salience of his statement is that he is openly plotting to work together with the pro-American ‘opposition’ agent in maneuvering his forces in a post-Mugabe reality. This was preceded by an organizational spokesman voicing support for the Color Revolution, and earlier this year, it’s notable that the veterans were very loud in their opposition to Grace Mugabe and her political allies, obviously positioning themselves as some form of incipient ‘nationalist opposition’ to the government and its leader’s assumed successor.

The involvement of the ZNLWVA is very important and shouldn’t be overlooked by any observers. This constituency, however patriotic it may be, essentially represents an informal ally of the US in weakening popular support for the Mugabe Administration. There’s no objection being raised to the organic development of a patriotic opposition to the government, but it’s just that the ZNLWVA appears to be inadvertently furthering the exact same objective as the US at this moment, which is the diminishment of civil trust in the government and the promotion of a regime change agenda. There’s likely no contact between American intelligence agencies and this group, and they’d probably immediately reject any outreaches that could be or might have already been made, but the case of ZNLWVA proves that even presumably well intentioned patriotic organizations could unwittingly function as “useful idiots” in lending ‘legitimacy’ to the US’ preplanned scheme, mostly in the pursuit of their own narrow self-interests but possibly also out of the conspiratorial actions of some of its co-opted members. ZNLWVA’s partisanship on the side of the Color Revolutionaries is also meant to exert influence on the military and security forces who might understandably be reluctant to forcibly respond to “their own” if the government orders them to disband the riotous disturbances. The underlying purpose of the veterans’ group is to form the core of a “patriotic-nationalist” opposition against Mugabe that could attract current servicemen and trigger defections, thus weakening the make-or-break powerbrokers that could hold the most control during the uncertain post-Mugabe transitional period (whether he dies or is overthrown).

The Hybrid War In Practice

Connecting The Three Pieces:

Each of the three forces described above have their own specific uses in the US’ destabilization template against Zimbabwe, but on their own, they’re insufficient to produce the desired result. Therefore, the US has consolidated them together via the Color Revolution coordination mechanism and is indirectly multi-managing their activities for maximum effect. Mawarire is the media-friendly face of the Color Revolution and the ‘bait’ for attracting faith-based individuals out into the street. His predictable arrest means that he’ll become a global “democracy” icon in the coming weeks and be exploited by hostile Western governments as part of their information warfare operations against Mugabe. The more successful that Mawarire’s ‘martyrdom’ and the corresponding Western media aggression around it are, the more probable it is that masses of people will flood into the streets and join his Color Revolution, thus intensifying the economic civil war by grinding the capital’s commerce to a halt.

In response to expected provocations on the side of the “opposition”, the military and related security forces will probably be ordered to disband the anti-government manifestations, but they might be hesitant to do so if this means that they must clash with the respected ZNLWVA veterans. Even if they faithfully carry out their duties, the Western media-manipulated and decontextualized image of young soldiers/police arresting independence-era veterans or forcible defending themselves from their attacks (“an unprovoked assault on democratic protesters”, in Western parlance) could be enough to push segments of society over the edge and into violent insurgency against the government. Some servicemen might join them out of ‘solidarity’ with their ‘fellow soldiers’, which could damage the military’s unity and significantly increase the capacities of the anti-government guerrillas in any forthcoming Unconventional War, whether waged in the urban areas, the rural ones, or both.

Tsvangirai The Placeholder:

Even though it seems like Color Revolution veteran and “opposition” leader Tsvangirai is the man who the US intends to replace Mugabe, chances are that his only real purpose would be to serve as a temporary placeholder until someone more suitable is chosen, whether out of the ‘opposition’ ranks or as a co-opted politician from the ruling party. This forecast isn’t just speculation, though, because it’s already been confirmed by the politician himself that he’s suffering from colon cancer, which caused his intra-party rivals to right away demand that he resign due to his health concerns. He probably won’t do that until the Color Revolution ends, whether with him sitting in power or in a jail cell, because the US understands that the misled portions of the Zimbabwean citizenry which are actively supporting him need a familiar and “trusted” face to rely on during this time. Mawarire the pastor is only useful for being a symbol of resistance and for his potentially magnetic pull among the religious community, whereas it’s Tsvangirai whom the agitated masses and their ZNLWVA allies expect to lead them after Mugabe’s possible fall.

There’s of course a chance that this politician would remain in office if he and his covert American backers are successful in overthrowing the Zimbabwe’s President, but the cloak-and-dagger nature of the country’s politics (whether among the ruling party or the ‘opposition’) means that it can’t fully be discounted that he’ll be pushed out by his own allies with time. The fact that intra-organizational pressure was already building on the cusp of the Color Revolution’s commencement proves just how disunited the US’ main proxy network in the country really is, but if Tsvangirai finds a way to fend them off or reach some sort of secret agreement for a future power transfer once he’s in office, they might end up rallying behind him with increased passion and effectiveness. For now, though, one shouldn’t dismiss the theory that Tsvangirai is just a placeholder for an unnamed (and possibly yet-to-be-designated) politician who could end up replacing him (whether voluntarily, through intra-party manipulation, or by force) shortly after he seizes power.

Unzipping Zimbabwe’s Unity:

Zimbabwe might come off as a unified country with a strong sense of patriotism, but beneath the surface hangs the disturbing prospect of ethnic tensions exploding between its two largest identity groups, the Shona and the Ndebele. The Shona represent the vast bulk of Zimbabwe’s population at around 80%, while the Ndebele constitute most of the remaining 20%. Mugabe is a Shona, and his pro-Soviet Zimbabwean African National Union (ZANU) was composed mostly of his fellow tribesmen who largely operated out of their northern homeland during the Independence War, while his rival revolutionaries, the pro-Chinese Zimbabwean African People’s Union (ZAPU) led by Joshua Nkomo, had a large Ndebele component and were mostly active in their own western homeland.

After the end of white minority rule and Mugabe’s election in 1980, ZANU cracked down on their ZAPU competitors, accusing them of orchestrating a counter-revolution and behaving as subversive elements. The campaign that followed was termed “Gukurahundi” and it was inevitably heavy with the ethnic overtones of the Shona-led ZANU government militarily responding to members of the Ndebele ZAPU opposition. The two sides reconciled in 1987 after ZAPU agreed to disarm and integrate into ZANU, thus forming the Zimbabwean African National Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) that has gone on to rule to this day.

The possible scenario of a united Zimbabwe torn apart by Hybrid War dates back to these identity divisions, and there’s a chance that they could return to the fore of the national dialogue, whether this occurs ‘organically’ or through external guidance (potentially with the US utilizing friendly information outlets and/or NGOs). Increasing the attractiveness that foreign actors might have in promoting this plan of civil conflict is the fact that there’s a clear-cut geographical distinction between the two groups. Even though the Ndebele are only about 20% of the population, their traditional homeland of Matabeleland and common area of present habitation accounts for about 33% of the country’s total territory in the western regions. Likewise, the Shona, who are estimated to be nearly 80% of the population, have a traditional homeland of Mashonaland that takes up around 30% of the northern corner of Zimbabwe (though many also live outside of it).

Red: Bulawayo and the provinces of Matabeleland North and South (Ndebele)
Blue: Harare and the provinces of Mashonaland North, East, and Central (Shona)

Even though there’s an intermingling of these two populations all across the country, the political-administrative divisions expressed above are typically taken as expressing each group’s respective home territory. The most sparsely and least settled parts of Zimbabwe are in Matabeleland, with the bulk of the country’s citizens living in the central, northern, and eastern reaches of the state. Still, Zimbabwe’s second-largest city of Bulawayo is located in the historically Ndebele-inhabited area of the country, thus proving that this region is certainly relevant to the state’s social framework despite its comparatively smaller total population.

Taking into consideration these geo-demographic factors, it’s not unforeseeable that a militant autonomy or secessionist movement might take root in Matabeleland amidst any chaotic circumstances that arise from a Zimbabwean Color Revolution. The outbreak of Hybrid War in the country could unleash the same sort of ethnic tensions between the Shona and Ndebele as the civil war in South Sudan did with the Dinka and Nuer, all to the benefit of an external actor that either prods this scenario on in the first place or craftily exploits it to its own geostrategic advantage. The promulgation of Identity Federalism in Zimbabwe as a “solution” to this scenario would make the erstwhile unified whole much more easier to control, while an independent Matabeleland could become a pro-American regional base, bearing in mind how the US’ often uses minority populations and newly created weak separatist states as its geostrategic proxies.

Shaking Up Southern Africa

Zimbabwe’s descent into a bloody Hybrid War, complete with anti-government insurgency and ethnic killings, would have serious implications for stability all across the Southern African region. All four of the country’s neighbors would be directly affected by the Weapons of Mass Migration that would be unleashed in the aftermath, as well as by the presence of a failed state adjacent to their borders.

Zambia:

This historically anti-colonial Southern African state is at risk of experiencing its own Hybrid War even without the destabilizing push that a state collapse in Zimbabwe could give it. A general election will be held on 11 August, and incumbent President Lungu is already facing Color Revolution pressure. Recent clashes and the death of an opposition supporter prompted him to suspend the country’s election campaigning for 10 days, and the violence that broke out coincidentally came on the heels of sharp American criticism against his government. The authorities shut down “The Post”, the largest opposition newspaper, late last month on charges that it had run up $6 million in unpaid taxes. The US saw this as an ‘attack on free speech’ and harshly condemned Lungu for ‘silencing the opposition’, demanding that he allow the tax-evading outlet to reopen as soon as possible. Not only did he refuse to do so, but he even cancelled a meeting with the US Assistant Secretary for African affairs. This ‘audacious’ act of independence couldn’t have gone unpunished for long, and it was only just a week later that the ‘opposition’ stoked pre-election violence all across the country in their desperate bid to stir up anti-government unrest.

Lungu isn’t being targeted solely because of his refusal to bow down before the US’ unipolar dictates, though that’s certainly a large part of why Washington is so angry at him. His country, Zambia, is a decades-long mineral-rich partner of China, and Beijing actually built the TAZARA railway through neighboringTanzania in the 1970s as a means of linking together the three partnered states. This close strategic relationship continued in the post-Cold War era, and one could even make the case that the success of TAZARA laid the foundation for China’s future One Belt One Road worldwide policy of infrastructure connectivity, seeing as how it was the first prominent such project that Beijing ever commenced. Nowadays, the Zambian portion of TAZARA is an irreplaceably valuable investment in completing China’s African Silk Road vision of bridging the continent’s Indian and Atlantic coasts. TAZARA is planned to be expanded westward through the North West Railway project that will bring it to the Angolan border, from where it will join up with the recently Chinese-refurbished Benguela Railway and eventually reach the Atlantic Ocean.

In this manner, the Tanzanian Indian Ocean Coast and the Angolan Atlantic one would be connected via their commonly adjacent landlocked Zambian neighbor. Even though there’s a chance of an alternative route going through Zambia to the southern Democratic Republic of the Congo’s region of Katanga, the trilateral Tanzania-Zambia-Angola path seems to be much more reliable due to the serious Hybrid War pressures afflicting Africa’s second-largest country, which was also the scene of the continent’s deadliest war that claimed at least 5 million lives in the 1990s and which still hasn’t been internally resolved in full. Even so, the Zambian route isn’t exactly problem-free either, with the western part of the country being the scene of “Barotseland” disturbances. This scarcely populated territory through which the North West Railway must pass en route to Angola has a complex history with the state, but the general idea is that it was promised some sort of federal-autonomous arrangement around the time of Zambia’s independence, but which was shortly thereafter controversially revoked by Lusaka.

“Barotseland” protesters have pulled off their mission to once more make this issue a nationwide topic of discussion, and some are even trying to pair it with the government’s 2013 decentralization policy in order to suggest a federalized “solution” to this re-emerging problem. Just like with Zimbabwe or any other country that implements any form of Identity Federalism, Zambia’s federal future would be rife with internal discord driven by external manipulation. In accordance with the Law Of Hybrid War, the end goal of this would be to disrupt, influence, or control China’s multipolar transnational connective infrastructure project of the Southern Transcontinental African Route (TAZARA + North West Railway + Benguela) by making its essential middle component hostage to the developing American-influenced political situation in the country. Whether it’s a Color Revolution in the capital, an Unconventional War in “Barotseland”, or a composite Hybrid War throughout all of the country, Zambia is certainly vulnerable to a range of destabilizations, and it might just take the US-orchestrated collapse of Zimbabwe and the resultant inflow of Weapons of Mass Migration to push the country over the edge and catalyze these dark scenarios.

Botswana and Mozambique:

These two neighboring countries are expected to be less directly impacted by any successful Hybrid War in Zimbabwe, though they’ll nevertheless still have their domestic stabilities offset to a certain degree. It’s unclear at this point just how much Botswana would be affected, but it’s a fair to say that it would be compelled to set up emergency refugee facilities along its extended eastern border with its neighbor. It should be reminded that Botswana only has slightly over 2 million people, a quarter of which are estimated to be concentrated around the capital of Gaborone in the southeast. Around 150,000 people also live in the Zimbabwean-bordering town and second-largest settlement of Francistown, so because of its proximity to the area of projected conflict, it’s expected that this city would become the country’s frontline defense in guarding against and responding to Weapons of Mass Migration. Depending on the scale of inflow, Botswana might not be able to fully control its borders, in which case anti-government insurgents might capitalize off of the situation in order to infiltrate the country and set up a network of safe havens. Even though this possibility presently seems remote, in analyzing the residual effects of a Zimbabwean Hybrid War on the region, it can’t responsibly be discounted by any strategist. On a related note, if this happens, then it could be used to ‘justify’ the US’ reported plans to open up an AFRICOM airbase in the southern part of the country, and these prospective regional crises might even be engineered partially on the motive of doing so.

Mozambique stands to be even more drastically impacted than Botswana, mostly because of the simmering conflict that’s re-emerged in that country ever since it discovered some of the world’s largest LNG deposits a few years ago. RENAMO, the Cold War-era rebel group that the US supported in the post-independence Mozambican Civil War, returned to low-scale militancy in 2013. Referred to as the country’s “invisible civil war” ever since, the conflict has persistently remained a challenge that just won’t abate. While there’s no direct evidence to prove it yet, if one understands the US’ global energy imperatives of controlling or denying various resources to others, as well as the CIA’s decades-long documented connection with RENAMO, it’s not at all unreasonable to suggest that the latest violence is being provoked by Washington as a means of interfering with Maputo’s LNG future. It’s predictable that this conflict will eventually intensify the closer that Mozambique comes to exporting its LNG on the global market, but in the meantime, any Weapons of Mass Migration streaming in from a Hybrid War-afflicted Zimbabwe (whether refugees or insurgents) could create a serious domestic crisis in RENAMO’s traditional western borderland area of operations. The government’s response to this prospective set of problems could either ‘naturally’ aggravate the conflict with RENAMO or be manipulated in such a way by self-interested internal actors and/or their external handlers for this end.

South Africa:

Washington ideally hoped that South African President Zuma would have already been deposed by a ‘constitutional coup’ by now and that his country could be the ‘Lead From Behind’ springboard for guaranteeing that the anti-Mugabe mission succeeded, but since he defied the odds and survived the plot earlier this year (unlike his BRICS counterpart Dilma Rousseff), it’s likely that the US intends to target him once again almost immediately after toppling Mugabe. In fact, South Africa has always been the regional crown jewel for American regime change planners, and it’s not unlikely that everything that’s going on in Zimbabwe right now is purposely aimed at eventually destabilizing its southern BRICS neighbor. For the moment at least, South Africa is still in a position to render supportive assistance to its anti-apartheid ally (however limited and/or symbolic it may be), but this could abruptly stop if the liberal Soros-funded “Democratic Alliance” ‘opposition’ pulls off an impressive showing during the 3 August nationwide local elections and expands their power over the rest of the remaining major cities that are still outside of their control, which is what some observers are expecting.

A ruling ANC party spokesman accused the US of fomenting regime change earlier this year, and even though Zuma ‘dodged a bullet’ with his impeachment case, it doesn’t mean that there isn’t a ‘Plan B’ for the US to fall back on and that a Zimbabwean Hybrid War concurrent with the upcoming local elections isn’t part of it. The political future of the President and his ANC party are in doubt because of some serious economic and domestic mishandlings, so it’s entirely possible that the pro-American ‘opposition’ will gain some extra support in the next electoral round and gradually strengthen their influence in the country, much to Zuma and his multipolar BRICS partners’ expected expense. With the ‘opposition’ gaining ground and working hand-in-hand with the US’ allied information outlets to craft the perception that they’re on the inevitable ascent to full power, the “Democratic Alliance” can be in a much better position to popularize the concept of Identity Federalism if an out-of-control Zimbabwean Hybrid War destructively spills across the border and produces the conditions for its advancement.

The BRICS stalwart of South Africa is existentially threatened by the danger that Weapons of Mass Migration could spark the unitary republic’s dissolution into a collection of quasi-independent tribal/ethnic-based federal statelets. Not only are visible segments of South African society violentlyxenophobic against the influx of African migrant workers that have flooded into the economically promising state over the past two decades, but there are even deep undercurrents of extremely polarized tension among its native peoples. Zulu nationalism was blamed for the xenophobic riots of early 2015, and the failure of South Africa to transcend identity-centric politics poses a very real threat to all other ethnicities within the country such as the Xhosa and Basotho, for example, whether they’re killing one another or fighting within their own groups.

Without the shared enemy of apartheid to unite the country’s disparate range of ethnic-tribal identities, it regretfully looks like some of these groups are at a serious risk of “self-segregating” and dividing the country along their identity lines. Tribalism has always been a civilizational vulnerability for the sub-Saharan African peoples just as sectarianism has been for the Muslim ones, and the rich spectrum of South Africa’s countless diverse identities could be violently divided against one another by external manipulation even easier than the binary Sunni-Shia split was savagely masterminded over recent years. All that it might take to produce this American-anticipated reaction is the large-scale introduction of Weapons of Mass Migration to set off an uncontrollable spate of deadly xenophobic purges that quickly spiral to the point of all-out civil war between the native ethnicities, eventually resulting in the de-facto re-institutionalization of “Bantustans” via the ‘politically correct’ and ‘domestically asked-for’ ‘black-led’ ‘solution’ of Identity Federalism.

Concluding Thoughts

Zimbabwe is at its most vulnerable and weakest point since independence, having been financially ravaged into economic destitution by the US and now on the cusp of descending into a dangerous spiral of Hybrid War violence. The government still has the chance to restore order and prevent the regime change riots from spreading, but it persuasively looks as though it’s at its closest that it’s ever been to state failure. The economy is in doldrums, unemployment is rampant, and people are upset at the authorities for a host of reasons, many of which are actually legitimate and in one way or another directly attributable to the actions of the ruling ZANU-PF party. Nevertheless, the timing of the most recent disturbances coincides with a rumored successionist struggle and the political technologies involved in the ‘protests’ almost exactly replicate those of previous Color Revolutions, so it’s a fair to analytically conclude that the US is launching yet another regime change plot against President Mugabe in order to unbalance Zimbabwe at its most uncertain moment and capitalize off of the strategic run-up to its leader’s inevitable passing. If the US even moderately succeeds in the latest iteration of its Hybrid War campaign, then it could have disastrous consequences for the rest of the Southern African region, spewing Weapons of Mass Migration and other destabilizations at all its fragile neighbors and possibly returning this part of the continent back to its Cold War-ear roots as a frontline geopolitical battlefield.

To be continued…

Andrew Korybko is the American political commentator currently residing in Moscow. Thew views expressed are his own. He is the author of the monograph “Hybrid Wars: The Indirect Adaptive Approach To Regime Change” (2015). This text will be included into his forthcoming book on the theory of Hybrid Warfare.

PREVIOUS CHAPTERS

Hybrid Wars 1. The Law Of Hybrid Warfare

Hybrid Wars 2. Testing the Theory – Syria & Ukraine

Hybrid Wars 3. Predicting Next Hybrid Wars

Hybrid Wars 4. In the Greater Heartland

Hybrid Wars 5. Breaking the Balkans

Hybrid Wars 6. Trick To Containing China

Hybrid Wars 7. How The US Could Manufacture A Mess In Myanmar

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Mainstream U.S. media only wants stories of Russian perfidy, so when German intelligence cleared Moscow of suspected subversion of German democracy, the silence was deafening, says ex-CIA analyst Ray McGovern.

After a multi-month, politically charged investigation, German intelligence agencies could find no good evidence of Moscow-directed cyber-attacks or a disinformation campaign aimed at subverting the democratic process in Germany. Undaunted, Chancellor Angela Merkel has commissioned a new investigation.

President Barack Obama talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the G7 Summit at Schloss Elmau in Bavaria, Germany, June 8, 2015. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

Last year, Berlin’s two main intelligence agencies, the BND and BfV (counterparts of the CIA and FBI) launched a joint investigation to substantiate allegations that Russia was meddling in German political affairs and attempting to shape the outcome of Germany’s elections next September.

Like the vast majority of Americans malnourished on “mainstream media,” most Germans have been led to believe that, by hacking and “propaganda,” the Kremlin interfered in the recent U.S. election and helped Donald Trump become president.

German intelligence agencies rarely bite the hand that feeds them and realize that the most bountiful part of the trough is at the CIA station in Berlin with ultimate guidance coming from CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia. But this time, in an unusual departure from past practice, analysts at the BND and BfV decided to act like responsible adults.

Whereas former CIA Director John Brennan prevailed on his analysts to resort to anemic, evidence-light reasoning “assessing” that Russia tried to tip the U.S. election to Donald Trump, Berlin’s intelligence agencies found the evidence lacking and have now completed their investigation.

Better still, the conclusions have been reported in a mainstream German newspaper, Sueddeutsche Zeitung, apparently because a patriotic insider thought the German people should also know.

Lemmings No Longer?

If BND President Bruno Kahl thought that his own analysts could be depended upon to follow their American counterparts lemming-like and find evidence – Curveball-style – to support the U.S. allegations, he now has had a rude awakening.

CIA Director John Brennan at a White House meeting during his time as President Barack Obama’s counterterrorism adviser.

When the joint investigation was under way with his analysts doing their best to come up with reliable evidence of Russian perfidy, Kahl had behaved like his BND predecessors, parroting the charges made by his CIA counterpart, that the Russians were fomenting uncertainty and instability in Germany and elsewhere in Europe.

In a rare interview with the mainstream newspaper, Sueddeutsche Zeitung, on Nov. 28, 2016, Kahl went out on what he probably thought was a safe limb, denouncing subversive “interference” by the Russians (“as they did in the U.S.”). He was just a few months into his job and may have been naïve enough to consider what John Brennan said as gospel truth. (If he really is that gullible, Kahl is in the wrong profession.)

In the interview, Kahl played the puppet-doll Charlie McCarthy with Brennan in the role of Charlie’s ventriloquist Edgar Bergen. Kahl told the Sueddeutsche that he agreed with the U.S. intelligence “assessment” that the Kremlin was behind the cyber attacks aimed at influencing the U.S. election.

He added: “We know that cyber attacks are taking place and that they have no purpose other than to produce political instability. … Not only that. The perpetrators are interested in delegitimizing the democratic process itself. … I have the impression that the outcome of the American election has evoked no sadness in Russia so far. …

“Europe is [now] the focus of these disruption experiments, and Germany especially. … The pressure on the public discourse and on democracy is unacceptable.” Sound familiar?

Still, one might excuse the novice BND president for assuming his analysts would remember which side their bread is buttered on and follow past precedent in coming up with conclusions known to be desired by their masters in Berlin and the CIA.

So it must have come as an unwelcome surprise to Kahl when he found out that, this time, BND analysts would stand on principle and refuse to be as malleable as their Washington counterparts. His analysts could find no proof that the Kremlin was working hard to undermine the democratic process in Germany, and said so.

Worse still from the U.S. point of view, the two German intelligence agencies resisted the usual pressure from some senior leaders in Berlin (perhaps including Kahl himself) to jam whatever innocuous information they could find into the anti-Russian mosaic that Washington was constructing, a kind of Cubist version of distorted reality.

And So, a Do-Over

So, what do powerful officials do when the bureaucracy comes up with “incorrect” conclusions? They send the analysts and investigators back to work until they come up with “correct” answers. This turned out to be no exception. Absent evidence of hacking directed by the Kremlin, the Germans now have opted for an approach by which information can be fudged more easily.

CIA seal in lobby of the spy agency’s headquarters. (U.S. government photo)

According to the Sueddeutsche, “Chancellor Merkel’s office has now ordered a new inquiry. Notably, a ‘psychological operations group’ jointly run by the BND and BfV will specifically look at Russian news agencies’ coverage in Germany.” We can expect that any articles that don’t portray Vladimir Putin in a devil’s costume will be judged “Russian propaganda.”

For guidance, Merkel may well give the new “investigators” a copy of the evidence-free CIA/FBI/NSA “Assessment: Russia’s Influence Campaign Targeting the 2016 US Presidential Election.” Released on Jan. 6, the report was an eyesore and embarrassment to serious intelligence professionals. The lame “evidence” presented, together with all the “assessing” indulged in by U.S. analysts, was unable to fill five pages; filler was needed – preferably filler that could be made to look like analysis.

And so, seven more pages were tacked onto the CIA/FBI/NSA Assessment, even though the information presented in them had nothing to do with the cause celebre of Russian hacking. No problem: The additional seven pages bore the ominous title: “Annex A: Russia – Kremlin’s TV Seeks To Influence Politics, Fuel Discontent in US.”

The extra pages, in turn, were then used to support the following indictment: “Russia’s state-run propaganda machine contributed to the influence campaign by serving as a platform for Kremlin messaging to Russian and international audiences.”

Did an Insider Leak?

It is not clear how the German daily Sueddeutsche acquired the conclusions of the joint investigation or even whether it has the full 50-page copy of the final report. The newspaper did make it clear, though, that it now realizes it was played by Kahl with his unsupported accusations last November.

Russian President Vladimir Putin answering questions from Russian citizens at his annual Q&A event on April 14, 2016. (Russian government photo)

From what the newspaper was told, the analysts seemed willing to give the boss what he had already declared to be his desired conclusion, but the evidence simply wasn’t there. The article quotes one security expert saying, “We would have been happy to give Russia a yellow card,” a soccer metaphor referring to improper conduct. A cabinet source lamented, “We found no smoking gun.”

Initially, the BND and BfV planned to release excerpts of their still classified inquiry, the Sueddeutsche reported, but it’s now not clear when, if ever, the full report will be released.

The day after the Sueddeutsche story appeared, some other media outlets reported on it – briefly. Newsweek and Politico gave the scoop all of three sentences each. Not fitting with the preferred “Russia-is-guilty-of-everything” narrative, it then died a quick death. I have been unable to find the story mentioned at all in major U.S. “mainstream media” outlets.

If Americans became aware of the story, it was probably via RT – the bête noire of the abovementioned CIA/FBI/NSA report condemning Russian “propaganda.” Can it become any clearer why RT America and RT International are despised by the U.S. government and the “mainstream media?” Many Americans are slowly realizing they cannot count on American network and cable TV for accurate news and are tuning in to RT at least for the other side of these important stories.

It was from a early morning call from RT International that I first learned of the Feb. 7 Sueddeutsche Zeitung report on Germany’s failed hunt for evidence of Russian electoral interference.

Ray McGovern works with Tell the Word, a publishing arm of the ecumenical Church of the Saviour in inner-city Washington. An intelligence analyst for 30 years, McGovern was CIA’s senior representative to the Analysis Department of the BND during the late 1970s.

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The firing of General Michael Flynn, Donald Trump’s former national security adviser, for ties to Russian intelligence has precipitated a certain chaos in the White House and Washington that could determine whether there will be more revelations that result in firings or whether we will see unparalleled control of intelligence agencies by the so-called President of the United States.

In an effort to battle the fallout from campaign advisors Paul Manafort, Roger Stone and Carter Page having been caught by the CIA and NSA for collusion with Russian intelligence officers, Trump has announced his intention to have billionaire Stephen Feinberg, co-founder of Cerberus Capital Management, oversee a broad review of this nation’s intelligence agencies. (Cerberus, appropriately, was in Greek mythology the multi-headed dog that guarded the gates of the Underworld to prevent the dead from leaving.)

Trump hopes to avoid further scrutiny regarding both his business dealings with Russia and connections to Vladimir Putin’s intelligence agents, using Feinberg, who has no national security background. He is a crony of chief strategist Steve Bannon, formerly of Breitbart News and Jared Kushner, whose expertise is being the son-in-law of Trump. This is a crucial moment in US history, as Trump attempts to stop leaks from the intel gatherers he has frequently criticized.

One irony in the midst of what is clearly looming as a constitutional crisis is the public perception of the role of the Central Intelligence Agency. Steeped in a history of assassination, destabilization and infiltration of other governments, including working democracies, the Agency is now being counted upon by opponents of Trump’s intel totalitariansism to be some kind of whistleblowing knight in shining armor.

To understand how unexpected the above scenario is, one needs to consider author Douglas Valentine’s recent book The CIA As Organized Crime: How Illegal Operations Corrupt America and the World. In it, he has laid out not only some of the most egregious acts of the Agency but also how it now dominates branches like the Drug Enforcement Agency and State Department.

Valentine’s expansive, penetrating knowledge of the Central Intelligence Agency began with his book The Phoenix Program, the definitive work on the CIA-directed murder of between 25-40,000 civilians during the Vietnam War, suspected of affiliation with the Viet Cong, but without any kind of legal redress. These suspects, referred to as VCI or Viet Cong infrastructure, often accused via hearsay, could only be released by bribing local Vietnamese officials. As Valentine reports, CIA officer Lucien Conein called the Phoenix Program “the greatest blackmail scheme ever invented. If you don’t do what I want, you’re a VC.”

In addition to summarizing the Phoenix Program in his book, Valentine takes us through a horrifying history of Agency abuses in the name of democracy. From Southeast Asia, where the CIA funneled money to Laotian Hmong leader Vang Pao to fight North Vietnam, with opium as a financial benefit to the Agency, Valentine moves on to the CIA in the 80s. Here, he illuminates how the Agency “coerced law enforcement agencies into ‘looking away’ in regard to both cocaine smuggling by the Nicaraguan Contra terrorists and heroin trafficking by the Northern Alliance warlords fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan.”

Valentine contemporizes the moral relativity of CIA operations, the lesser-of-two-evils paradigm that historically morphs into the creation of newer and more potent enemies of the US. After the CIA used an early al-Qaeda to fight in Chechnya, Bosnia, Kosovo and other locations, our support of Hamid Karzai and his trafficking in opium led to an al-Qaeda committed to American destruction. “This same scenario,” Valentine writes, “has been playing out in Afghanistan for the last 15 years, largely through the DEA’s Special Operations Division (SOD), whose sole purpose is to provide cover for CIA operations worldwide.”

And connecting the CIA’s geopolitical relativism to even more current affairs, Valentine explores the recent failed support of the rebels in Bashar al-Assad’s Syria. Valentine emphasizes that “Iran publicly backs Assad, as does Russia, and that Iran seeks to help Assad defeat the rebels, many of whom are foreign mercenaries trained and financed by the CIA, Israel, Jordan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.” Never have CIA loyalties been more confused and counterintuitive, Valentine asserts, than in a world where factions of our sworn enemies al-Qaeda and ISIS aid us in our failed attempt to depose Assad.

Now, FBI and Congressional investigations probe Trump’s connections to Russia, which must include the previous oil and gas business dealings of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. Yet there is serious doubt about how deeply they will dig. The FBI’s James Comey was willing to sit on evidence about Michael Flynn presented by then acting Attorney General Sally Yates. The Republican controlled Congress and current Attorney General Jeff Sessions, who worked on the Trump campaign, have no commitment to actual revelations that would embarrass their own party, even if those facts revealed treasonous actions.

Thus, the CIA of old, who Douglas Valentine rightfully excoriates for its illegalities in the name of American national interests, has an unexpected and rare opportunity to remake its own image at this point in history. Whether it is done in the name of preserving CIA independence from Trump and people like Stephen Feinberg or in the name of preserving democracy, it seems the CIA, NSA and our intelligence partners around the world are now the only source of enlightenment about Trump’s true relationship to Putin’s Russia.

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What was the Cold War? Cold War Crucible: The Korean Conflict and the Postwar World (Harvard University Press, 2015) is an inquiry into the very nature and meanings of the conflict. It traces the Cold War’s metamorphosis during the Korean War from a diplomatic stand-off among policymakers to an ordinary people’s war at home through examining not only centers of policymaking, but seeming aftereffects of Cold War politics during the Korean War: The Red Purge in Japan, the White Terror in Taiwan, Suppression of counterrevolutionaries in China, the crackdown on “un-Filipino” activities in the Philippines, and McCarthyism in the United States. Why did such similar patterns of domestic repression occur simultaneously around the world? Were there any similarities among these repressions? What would happen if we were to remove the Cold War lens? What were the implications of such a worldwide phenomenon?

While these events have usually been examined separately and are commonly considered after-effects of the global Cold War, the book re-defines these events as parts of a global phenomenon of nativist backlashes—a sort of social conservative suppression—that operated to silence various local conflicts that surfaced in the aftermath of World War II. It shows how ordinary people throughout the world strove to silence disagreements and restore social order under the mantle of the global confrontation, revealing that the actual divides of the Cold War existed not necessarily between the Eastern and Western blocs but within each society, with each, in turn, requiring the perpetuation of such an imagined reality to maintain order and harmony at home. Exploring such social functions and popular participation, Cold War Crucible suggests that the Cold War was more than an international and geopolitical confrontation between the Western and Eastern blocs. It was also a social mechanism for purity and order, which functioned in many parts of the world to tranquilize chaotic postwar and postcolonial situations through containing a multitude of social conflicts and culture wars at home. This article draws on and extends parts of Chapter 8 and 9 concerning Japan’s Red Purge and China’s Suppression of counterrevolutionaries.

Reconsidering the Red Purge in Japan

At 3 p.m. on July 28, 1950, thirty-one workers at Mainichi Shinbun in Tokyo were called to their bosses’ offices, most of them individually, and told that they were fired, on the spot. The only reason that they were given was that the news media had an important responsibility in driving out communists and communist sympathizers from the company. Similar notifications were conveyed simultaneously at other major newspapers, such as Asahi Shinbun and Yomiuri Shinbun. This was the beginning of the waves of mass dismissals, conducted first through General Douglas MacArthur’s directive to remove communists from the newspaper industry.1 Based on this directive, fifty newspaper companies nationwide unilaterally notified a total of 704 employees that they were being terminated. These ranged from major newspapers like Asahi Shinbun (104 dismissed out of 5,200 staff), Mainichi Shinbun (49 of 5,000), and Yomiuri Shinbun (34 of 2,200) to small local newspapers such as Nihonkai Shinbun (9 of 90) in Tottori, as well as Shinyo Shinbun (1 of 50) in Matsumoto.2

This wave of mass dismissals in the newspaper industry then spread to other companies on a much larger scale. In the fall of 1950, roughly 13,000 people were fired from industries including coal, steel, shipbuilding, chemistry, railways, and mining—a phenomenon commonly known in Japan as the “Red Purge.”3 As the name suggests, these waves of mass dismissals have conventionally been viewed through a Cold War lens. The traditional understanding is that this was a purge of communists, conducted primarily under orders from the U.S. occupation forces. Under such a presumption, there has not been much discussion of who actually planned and conducted this so-called Red Purge. In the existing literature, the answer has almost been taken for granted.4 It was the Americans. It was the GHQ and Washington. Their reason for the Red Purge was, it is commonly argued, to make Japan a fortress against the threat of Soviet expansion in East Asia. By the same token, not much attention has been paid to who the actual victims were; that they were communists and communist sympathizers or innocent victims dismissed due to false charges has also been taken for granted. In short, the Red Purge has been commonly understood as an aftereffect of the Cold War—an inevitable result of the global confrontation.

However, this grand narrative has prevented us from inquiring further into the meaning of the Red Purge and the Cold War. Once we raise questions about the Cold War framework itself, the mass firings of 1950 seem more than just a Red Purge. Rather, they look more like part of a global phenomenon of domestic purges that raged in many places during the Korean War. To begin with, we need to make a distinction between the mass firings in the newspaper industry and those that followed in other industries on a much larger scale. The first wave was based on MacArthur’s statement, developed in the context of the Korean War and aimed at picking off “communists,” however vague the meaning of that term might have been—involved a series of mass dismissals which can be justifiably called the Red Purge. By contrast, the following and larger waves of mass firings, all of which were lumped together as the Red Purge, were carried out based on the judgments of each company, targeting not just communists but anyone deemed “destructive.”5 There was no single order issued by the GHQ. William Murcutt, chief of the Economic and Scientific Section, in fact, told Robert Amis, chief of the Labor Division in August 1950, that the “GHQ must not be involved in dismissals.”6 Recalling the situations surrounding the Red Purge, Amis told an interviewer years later:

It is a mistake to believe a criticism that I directed the Red Purge. I did not begin it. I believe that it came out from the inside of Japan’s labor unions … for they wanted to exclude communist factions. It came neither from the Government Section (in the GHQ) nor MacArthur; it came from the Japanese themselves. … I got embroiled by leaders of the management and labor. They often invited me to dinner, took pictures, and used it to show that they were close to me and that I was hoping to implement the Red Purge.7

Many historians of the Red Purge have been skeptical of Amis’s remarks, seeing him as feigning ignorance, because scholars have firmly believed in the absolute rule of U.S. occupation power in Japan.8 This view, of course, has a certain merit; after all, the GHQ intervened at various critical moments, such as the dismissal of “communists” at newspapers. Nonetheless, Amis’s recollection does not seem like a mere fraud, considering that this was when the GHQ gradually lost its special aura in the occupation of Japan. Over the course of the Red Purge, American officers experienced being ignored and used by Japanese actors, and many realized, as Valery Burati, a GHQ official in the Labor Division, wrote in a personal letter, that “the Occupation [had] gone to seed.”9 Japanese politicians and labor leaders likewise had been learning about this tendency and realized that they could negotiate, or even flatly reject, GHQ “orders.”10 In sum, the large portion of mass dismissal cases which are commonly considered part of the Red Purge was, in essence, planned, conducted, and maintained through judgments by each company, with each using its own reasoning and criteria for who should be let go and why.

Local Dynamics of the Red Purge

Let us take a look at one long list of criteria, compiled by the largest mining company in Japan, the Mitsui Miike Coal Mine, to examine how diverse the targets of their “Red Purge” were. This list, comprising twenty-two itemized categories, targeted not only communists, communist party members, and those who had left or been removed from the party, but also various “sympathizers” who, for example, had tried to help those who were fired. It targeted even those who might behave in such a way or might hinder the company’s operations.11 With criteria so broad and vague, how did this second wave of mass dismissals function on the ground? Observing the expansion of the Red Purge, the Labor Division of the GHQ warned that it must not be mixed up with the rationalizations of companies.12 Various archival documents show that the actual practice of this Red Purge was not limited to the termination of “communists”; more often, it was used in various local situations, as an excuse to dismiss certain kinds of people.

Take one case as an example: that of Nippon Kokan (Nippon Steel Tube Company), which fired 190 workers in the fall of 1950. The dispute began with an announcement by company president Kawata Shige, on October 23, that he was compelled to discharge workers “who hindered the smooth operation of the company’s business or refused to cooperate with the company.”13 Even GHQ officials, often considered operators of the Red Purge, were alarmed; one staff member in the Labor Division, for example, described this mass firing as an “abuse of the Red Purge.”14 As the chief of the division, Amis warned the Nippon Kokan management:

What I have said before is not being followed by the management. It seems to me that the management is taking advantage. Concrete reasons for dismissal should be given. If reasons for dismissal cannot be cited correctly, defer the discharge. When a dismissed employee does not fall under the reason, he should be returned to his post, and wages during his dismissal should be paid.15

The company simply ignored this warning.

Meanwhile, Ishijima Seiichi, a 27-year-old worker at the company’s Tsurumi Plant, wrote a lengthy petition to Amis, asking for help and explaining that, although he was an active union member at his plant, he had never been a communist or a communist sympathizer. He argued that the company disliked him because, as a union member, he had “found many defects in the way the management of the company [was] carried out” and because he “submitted his opinion about the improvement of the management.”16 Ishijima’s letter, which contained a detailed counterargument to the company’s charges, was translated and taken seriously. Amis then examined the letter’s legitimacy with the help of Japan’s Labor Ministry, whose officials interviewed Ishijima and concluded that he was not a communist. Based on this information, Amis met with company officers and urged them to give Ishijima his job back.

This time, the company reacted. It invited Ishijima to a dinner and told him that the company admitted he was not a communist. Yet it still refused to re-employ him and proposed a deal, offering him a sum of 250,000 yen—more than the average yearly income at that time—on condition that he not challenge the management again before the GHQ or the public.17 Ishijima was in a tough spot. Having a wife and children, and without any possibility of returning to the company, he apparently accepted this offer. We do not have any further records involving him. GHQ officials were confused and disturbed by the company’s refusal to rehire Ishijima, in spite of GHQ’s repeated warnings. One Japanese official at the Labor Ministry explained to them that, even though he was not a communist, he might be considered some kind of a “troublemaker” at the company because as one of the founding organizers of a union at his factory in Tsurumi he had actively criticized the management.18

In fact, it was Japan’s Labor Ministry, not the GHQ, who, in early October 1950, presented a “guideline” for the Red Purge at companies and accepted the dismissal of not only members of the communist party and fellow-travelers but also “those inveterate active trouble makers, taking leadership roles in activities, inciting others, or being original planners of incitation, thus causing real injury to the safety and peace of the enterprise.”19 Relying on this vague definition of “troublemakers,” numerous companies took advantage. One such case is that of Niigata Tekkosho, a small ironworks in Niigata Prefecture, where three dozen workers, mostly active union members, were fired as “troublemakers” for being “uncooperative,” “disturbing,” and “undesirable” elements at the company. One worker noticed that dismissals of workers were especially numerous where labor-management negotiations had been contentious.20

Similar conduct can be seen in the case of Japan’s major transport company, Nittsu, where 800 “reds” were fired. Many were, actually, guilty only of participating in wildcat strikes earlier in the summer of 1950. In the case of Dai Nippon Boseki (Dai Nippon Spinning Company), this tendency was so conspicuous that a GHQ official, Burati, described the company as “one of the worst offenders in the field of textiles in taking advantage of [the] ‘red purge’ to dismiss anti-communists who were, in fact, aggressive union officers.”21As this comment shows, the implementation of the Red Purge went far beyond the control of the GHQ and, in practice, covered up what were, in reality, labor and social disputes.

Nevertheless, it is still simplistic to describe the Red Purge simply as a phenomenon in which management took advantage of the anti-communist climate to solve labor disputes. This is because struggles were waged not only between management and labor but also within labor unions. In the case of Densan (All-Japan Electrical Workers Union), for example, a dispute between “communist” and “non-communist” factions had been developing since 1947. This internal dispute culminated at the union’s annual conference in Nara in May 1950, which was eventually canceled due to a violent clash between the two factions. Following this incident, the mainstream “noncommunist” faction of the union circulated a communiqué, requiring the full membership of approximately 130,000 to reregister, which was approved by 110,000 members and rejected by 20,000. When the management announced the dismissal of 2,137 “key figures” among those who had refused to reregister under the climate of the Red Purge in late August, the labor union acquiesced, because those dismissed were no longer “union members.”22

In other words, behind the image of ideological struggle between “communist” and “non-communist” factions, the point of contention was less over ideology than a sense of belonging within the company. As we have seen, the Nippon Kokan president’s criticism was about “uncooperative” attitudes by a “few” workers, who allegedly were acting according to “directions given by outsiders.”23 Likewise, as for the labor activists, what became the battle line was a sense of solidarity, not between workers across companies or nations but among employees of a specific company. One labor leader, in fact, recalled “strong attachment to the company” as a common tendency among mainstream union members, while not even trying to hide his dislike of those who did not have such feelings of intimacy for their company.24 In other words, the actual battle line was more about whether members “loved” their companies.

Similar tendencies were observed outside of private enterprise, such as at schools and universities. At an elementary school in Gunma Prefecture, for example, several teachers were fired for diverse, basically non-ideological reasons, such as “uncooperative attitudes,” “discord with colleagues,” and “criticism of local and national politics.” As is apparent in these examples, many cases of the so-called Red Purge actually involved a screening of nonconformists, dissenters, and malcontents at workplaces. In other words, the actual dynamics of the mass firings around 1950 were not necessarily about ideology but about a desirable style of order and harmony at workplaces and in society.

Many, of course, refused to accept sudden terminations and continued to fight. Some simply went to their workplace but were forcefully removed by security guards and plainclothes police. Others sought help from the union at their companies but, in many cases, were almost completely ignored. Still others took the matter to court, but many of their cases were refused as most courts concluded that they lacked jurisdiction over MacArthur’s orders during the occupation.25 But what most severely and effectively discouraged those who had been discharged, according to many people’s recollections, was the abrupt change in the attitude of their colleagues, union members, and personal friends. “I felt as if I had suddenly become a person with an infectious disease. Everyone stopped talking to me,” recalled Kuboi Mitsuko, a female employee at Asahi Shinbun, about the period after she was dismissed. She recalled that her colleagues literally turned their faces away when she happened to run into them.26

As seen in these examples, with the solidification of the Cold War framework, the Red Scare climate not only began functioning within companies and unions, but began affecting ordinary individuals’ ways of thinking and daily behavior. This climate further spread to employment in the fall of 1950, and many companies, particularly banks and department stores, concerned about image and reputation, began systematically using private investigators to check applicants’ backgrounds and political attitudes. This climate reminded some people of wartime Japan under the tight control of the Public Security Preservation Law of 1925, which provided a legal basis for the imprisonment of communists and socialists, as well as liberals and Christians, and later laid the groundwork for the repression of any kind of opposition to Japan’s war effort. It was this sense of a return to wartime values that precipitated the anti–Red Purge agitation among high school and college students.

Student Activism and Grassroots Conservatism

Although student movements had been growing from the early days of the postwar, the period between 1950 and 1953, in particular, marked their full zenith.27 On September 29, 1950, for instance, 1,500 students gathered at Waseda University in opposition to the firing of “red” professors at Waseda, Hosei, and Tokyo Universities.28 Anti–Red Purge movements spread quickly among students, and, a week later, in October 1950, about 3,000 students rallied at Tokyo University.29 The student movements became widely known to the general public on October 17, when a riot erupted at Waseda, during which police arrested 143 students in the first such mass arrest of students in Japanese history.30

Student demonstration opposing the Red Purge at the University of Tokyo, Japan (1950)

Kobe Mitsuo, one of eighty-nine students eventually suspended from the school for an indefinite period, wrote: “I am not a member of the Japanese Communist Party, nor am I a communist. Needless to say not a ‘tool’ of it. I am just an everyday sort of student. I just feel extremely angry about a powerful force that suppresses freedom. I am sure all of us remember the ravages of war.”31 This statement indicates that his opposition to the Red Purge was less based on his party affiliation or political belief than his experiences during World War II. This feeling was shared widely among many participants in student movements. The evolution of such student activism is worthy of study, but our interest here is not so much student movements as social reactions to these movements.

In brief, the general reaction toward anti–Red Purge movements was one of disinterest. The general public was less concerned with the “Red Purge” than with the seeming threat to social order. For instance, major newspapers remained critical of the student movements. Describing them as an “unprecedented scandal,” an editorial in Mainichi Shinbun asserted: “College students should not behave like spoiled children.” The newspaper went on to say that the “scandal” was taking place under the “guidance of a small and peculiar group of students,” that student activism was nothing more than a “kind of sport among certain happy people,” and that the youth and women were particularly vulnerable to communist propaganda.32 Asahi Shinbun, similarly, warned that such “extreme actions” should be stopped to ensure social order.33

Even college newspapers, like Waseda Daigaku Shinbun (Waseda University Newspaper), which had supported student political activity, changed their tone, stating, “Students must not be rioters at any time. The incident was by no means orderly behavior.”34 From their perspective, the anti–Red Purge movement was bad not because of its point of view but its violation of social order. For many, whatever the content of their arguments, the students needed to be punished because they violated public order and security. In order to restore order—and to pacify the students—two measures were taken: first, a number of the leading figures of the student demonstrations were detained, and, second, the Cold War logic, which effectively provided a context for marginalizing disagreements and restoring order at home, was even more widely disseminated.35

Such a desire for conventional order clearly played a part in the 1952 national election—the first following the end of the U.S. occupation, which returned a conservative party to national leadership. Observing the election results, the literary scholar Togawa Yukio wrote:

The fact that the Liberal Party obtained a majority after all demonstrates the popular will. It suggests the wish of the voiceless people, which seems to be: “No more reform.” People are finally able to live like decent human beings seven years after being defeated in the war. Of course, they have grievances and anxiety, but for now people want to preserve the status quo. After drastic reforms, one after another, people usually feel, for better or worse, “It’s all right as it is. Don’t change anything more.” I think now is the time for such a period.36

Togawa’s observation was, perhaps, too restrained, because the victory of the conservatives did not mean the maintenance of the status quo of the postwar period. Their victory clearly supported the restoration of the traditional, accustomed order in Japan, which was disrupted, from the conservatives’ perspective, only during the wartime and occupation period.37 However, Togawa had a sharp eye in pointing out that society had come to dislike dramatic social change.38

To get a feeling for the social atmosphere, one can read hundreds of letters and postcards in the National Diet Library in Tokyo, written by ordinary people and sent to various local and national politicians from the fall of 1950 through 1951. One is from an anonymous resident in Kyoto, sent to a local politician in 1951. This letter is interesting because it expressed an aversion to social change in the postwar period and because it advocated limiting such change in the name of national defense. It read:

I believe the course of action we have taken since the defeat in the war in every field, particularly politics and education, must lead to the destruction of our nation. Such a way simply won’t work to fight communism at all. … I don’t want to turn our country into a battlefield. I don’t want to turn our country into the Balkans in East Asia, or another Korea. I want to save our country by our hands, and, no matter what, to protect it from foreign invasion.39

At the end of this long letter, the author got to the crux of his concern over the lack of chushin (center) in postwar Japan:

We, the people of this nation, wish to have a center. The solidarity of the nation is of vital importance. Nobody in our country will accept lines of argument such as “for freedom,” “for peace,” or “for the improvement of the standard of living.” Most importantly, we don’t want to throw away our long tradition. Nor do we want to give up our history. Only in this manner will we be able to achieve independence and to cooperate with the anti-communist front on the Western side.40

In stressing the “threat” of communism, what this anonymous writer longed for was to reassemble a shattered social order—or, broadly, a conventional and desirable national identity. For this author, however biased his interpretation, foreign events and the war in Korea provided a chance to effectively address his concerns on domestic issues.

Indeed, like other societies, Japanese society had changed a great deal during and after the war. The center seemed to be “lost,” and traditional order seemed “disturbed.” Students were rioting, women were increasingly working outside the home, and workers also were expanding their influence. The rise of new actors in postwar Japan made a large portion of the conservative population of Japan anxious, even resentful. One of the angriest men might have been a 58-year-old doctor, named Hidaka Hiroshi, in the small city of Yonago, Shimane Prefecture. He was worried about the postwar emergence of women, who, he believed, were “ignorant and uncomprehending.” He wrote in April 1951:

I feel gloomy about the superficiality of Japan’s national character and its society today when I see such women, jumping on the bandwagon of the current of the times, getting positions in important posts such as mayor or congressman. Women who put forth practically impossible arguments against rearmament are virtually traitors to our country. It is no exaggeration to say so in view of today’s world situation.41

This letter is interesting because of the writer’s use of the “real world situation” to express his disgust about the rising status of women in postwar Japan. He continued:

From old times, the saying “There are women behind history” always means tragedy and collapse. Women’s participation in politics rarely produced positive results, and, whether in the East or the West, there are many examples of the saying “A woman who shows her cleverness fails to sell the cow.” While we cannot take legal measures to ban women’s political involvement, we should seriously question the appointment of women to important posts in politics. The anti-rearmament argument is, after all, a purely empty theory that ignores the real situation in the world.42

At the end of his long letter, he expressed opposition to conducting a referendum on amending the constitution on the grounds that the majority of “ignorant” women might cause an unfavorable result. This letter is interesting because of its clear expression of grassroots conservatism opposing social change in the postwar period, and because of its use of the East-West confrontation in an attempt to contain such social conflict. Of course, this letter was not written as a representative voice of a particular group, but it conveys the feeling of people who quietly supported the social purges of 1950 and who supported silencing anti–Red Purge movements. It was such people who directly and indirectly repressed various “troublemakers” under the name of the Red Purge. Indeed, the legacy of this social suppression and punishment lasted for years and even decades. According to memoirs, many who were purged experienced difficulty in getting jobs and were ostracized in their hometowns for years, which resulted, in extreme cases, in family estrangement, divorce, and suicide.43

A large majority of the literature on the Red Purge suggests that it was the GHQ and Washington that ordered the purge of communists and communist sympathizers in order to create an anti-communist country in East Asia. However, what we have seen here does not fit neatly into such a Washington-directed model. First and foremost, many dismissals at ordinary companies actually resulted from ordinary employers’ own decisions, and factional disputes in labor unions facilitated the mass dismissals of certain groups of people. Second, most of those expelled were not necessarily communists or fifth columnists. Third, in some cases, the Labor Division of the GHQ even tried to stop “abuse of the Red Purge,” and many were, nevertheless, fired for disturbing the conventional order and harmony of their workplaces. Finally, opposition to the Red Purge was muted among the majority in society, who chose to say: “No more reform.” Therefore, it is reasonable to suggest that the Red Purge was carried out not so much by the GHQ and Washington as by tens of thousands of local people in Japan.

This re-examination of agency leads us to reconsider the nature of events. In some cases, events fit well with the conventional Red Purge model, but a large majority of other cases are better understood broadly as social repression conducted by nameless and numberless local people in attempts to restrain social disagreements that came surfaced following Japan’s defeat in the war. Viewed in this way, the Red Purge does not seem like a mere end result of the Cold War; rather it was part of a conservative backlash among a large portion of the population that silenced disagreements and created domestic tranquility, for which the imagined reality of the Cold War was a vehicle.

*****

Interestingly, such a situation was not unique to postwar Japan. Similar suppressions and purges simultaneously swept over many parts of the world: the suppression of counterrevolutionaries in China, the White Terror in Taiwan, the crackdown on “un-Filipino” activity in the Philippines, and anti-communist and anti-leftist movements in Western societies, such as anti-labor agitation in the United Kingdom and McCarthyism in the United States. Conventionally, these events have been viewed through a Cold War lens, and thus treated as end results of the global Cold War confrontation on the ground. Removing this lens allows us to identify a different pattern of commonalities: a global phenomenon of purification and ordering in a chaotic postwar world. Before discussing the meaning of this wave of social repressions during the Korean War, let us explore another example that is usually treated as a typical case of Cold War ideological suppression: the large-scale purge of “counterrevolutionaries” in China in the fall of 1950.

Reconsidering the “Campaign to Suppress Counterrevolutionaries”

On the morning of April 28, 1951, the atmosphere was heated at Shanghai’s famous Canidrome, a once fashionable and dazzling greyhound-racing stadium, originally built in 1928. Squeezed against the oval of the immense greensward was a crowd of 10,000 people. A stage was set up in front of the central platform at the center of the sea of humanity, and on stage were the accused, bound by ropes or chains, with heads down, awaiting judgment, and listening to speeches by Party officials, witnesses, students, and peasants. According to a reporter for the British newspaper Manchester Guardian, the masses of people sang songs, waved red flags bearing the slogans of the regime, and howled imprecations against the accused. It was one of countless mass accusation meetings in Shanghai, conducted as part of the Zhenya fan geming, or Zhenfan (Campaign to Suppress Counterrevolutionaries), a wave that swept Shanghai and numerous other cities nationwide from the late fall of 1950 throughout the summer of 1951. Such a mass meeting was reportedly preceded by a series of accusations and confessions, in each case followed by a customary question and answer between official prosecutors and the crowd. “Shall we shoot them?” asked a prosecutor, in one instance. “Death to them! Death to them!” answered the crowd, “Take them back to the scene of their crime and kill them.”44

On that day at the Canidrome in Shanghai, the crowd sentenced to death more than 200 with such shouts, which local newspapers described as “a unanimous roar.” These sentences were reviewed and confirmed the next day by the Shanghai Military Control Commission. According to court documents, Zhang Wanjin, a 31-year-old former police officer, who retained his position following the change of regime, was sentenced to prison for the crime of spreading a rumor in 1950, allegedly saying, “Chiang Kai-shek will counterattack this year, and the U.S. forces will land at ports nearby, attacking Shanghai from three directions—land, sea, and air.”45 Likewise, Lian Zhenan, a 33-year-old former military doctor, was sentenced to prison, charged with allegedly having disrupted a fanMeifuRi (Oppose U.S. support Japan) demonstration in Shanghai on March 4, 1951, by shouting “reactionary” slogans.46 Cheng Wei, a 39-year-old man, was sentenced to death, charged with allegedly having spread “reactionary” rumors, such as “The Nationalist Party is coming back.” According to a judgment, available at the Shanghai Municipal Archives, he retorted, “Now everyone shouts Chairman Mao. But in the era of Chiang Kai-shek, everyone shouted Generalissimo Chiang, Generalissimo Chiang. Why did nobody say Chairman Mao at that time? We don’t need to be honest!”47

Mass accusation meeting in land reform, Yangsi district of Pudong, Shanghai, PRC (1951)”

As soon as their sentences were confirmed, such “criminals” were transported to public execution sites. Let us take a look at an example of a public execution, observed by Norimura Kaneko, a Japanese girl who witnessed a mass execution in the small city of Haicheng, near Shenyang, in the late summer of 1951. Norimura’s family continued to live in the area after Japan’s surrender in World War II because her father was a doctor who had worked for the CCP during the civil war. Norimura was a student at a local middle school. On a sweltering day. Norimura and her schoolmates walked to the beach along the Haicheng River to attend the event without knowing what kind of event would be held. When they arrived in the late afternoon, a crowd of people had already assembled. Children were playing nearby. Many students from other schools arrived at the site, and there was a joyful mood in the air. As usual at this sort of gathering, the crowd began singing, and Norimura and her classmates joined in. Within an hour, a chorus of people began yelling: “Crush the invasion of American imperialism!” and “We will never allow spies’ subversive activities!” Innumerable fists were raised in the air as the slogans were repeated. “What on earth is going to happen?” Norimura wondered.48

Before long, a progression of men appeared, hands tied behind their backs. The first was a thin, middle-aged man; he looked poor, his hair a mess. The second was a fair-skinned young man, in tears, nose running, chin dripping with slobber. The next one surprised Norimura, because his loose-fitting trousers slipped down to his ankles, exposing his body below the waist, as he was dragged along by soldiers, walking awkwardly. The children laughed at him as he passed by. The rest of the crowd—men and women, young and old—likewise laughed derisively and convulsively, pointing, booing, and heaping ridicule and scorn on the man. These “counterrevolutionary” prisoners passed by Norimura’s eyes one by one and soon came to a stop about 100 feet from her, where they knelt as if bowing to the sun. Norimura suddenly noticed that there was a hole in the ground in front of them. “Shh! . . . Shh! . . . Quiet!” people said to one another. Soon the sound of a rifle being cocked could be heard, and, then, a soldier held the muzzle of the rifle against a prisoner’s head.49

Bang!

With a crack, the man who had been crying fell silent and disappeared from Norimura’s sight. The executions continued, one by one. Even after they were finished, the crowd remained excited. Some people tried to look into the hole, where the bodies of the prisoners had piled up.50

In this way, scenes of denunciation and execution were repeated in numerous locations all over China between the fall of 1950 and the summer of 1951. In Beijing and Tianjin, mass meetings were reportedly carried out, 29,629 and 21,400 times, respectively, and, in Shanghai alone, more than 33,000 people were denounced and nearly 29,000 were charged with being “counterrevolutionaries.”51 It is not surprising that, in this period, reporting the number of executions week after week became routine for foreign diplomats.52In addition to reporting the number of deaths, some British diplomats in Shanghai stated that their domestic servants had suddenly disappeared or had been arrested for being “running dog[s] of the imperialists.”53 Although we still do not know the precise number of those executed and imprisoned during this period, the historian Yang Kuisong indicates that it was officially claimed that roughly 712,000 people had been executed nationwide, 1,290,000 were imprisoned, and 1.2 million were at some point under house arrest.54

The Campaign to Suppress Counterrevolutionaries has generally been considered, with good reason, a top-down, coercive, political cleansing campaign by the CCP, aimed at repression of former members of the Nationalist Party and party sympathizers.55 Scholars have paid great attention to the role of the CCP—in particular Mao Zedong—in the movement. While disagreements surely exist in terms of political stances and evaluation of the phenomenon, most scholars approach this subject through the lens of traditional political history, that is, looking at a political event (the “Zhenfan movement”) largely as a result of the intentions of policymakers. To be sure, this approach has a certain merit. The campaign initially developed as a result of Mao’s directive issued on October 10, 1950, the so-called “double-ten directive,” and further escalated in late January 1951 under his instruction, and, thus, it makes sense to emphasize Mao’s responsibility.56 Nonetheless, this approach has tended to confirm our traditional understanding of the movement, describing it as if the Beijing leadership had a consistent intention and policy, as if the CCP controlled the expansion and contraction of the phenomenon from above, as if ordinary people were merely passive followers—or victims— and as if the campaign followed a communist path peculiar to post-1949 China. These points need to be further examined, as they contain quite a few myths.

People’s War at Home

First of all, Beijing did not necessarily have consistent intentions or beliefs in supervising the Zhenfan movement from beginning to end. As Yang Kuisong traces in detail, Beijing’s policy followed a zigzag course even in this short period. For example, within just two months of the announcement of the double-ten directive, Liu Shaoqi sought to slow the escalation of the Zhenfan movement, and Mao agreed, suggesting that an “excessively nervous atmosphere” must not be created. A month later, in mid-January 1951, however, Mao endorsed a number of large-scale executions in western Hunan as a “completely necessary step,” an example that, he then urged, should be followed by all other provinces, in both urban and rural areas.57

In addition, although the Zhenfan movement surely evolved under the direction of the central authorities, the CCP center did not necessarily control the course of the phenomenon. When Beijing sought a comprehensive retrenchment of the campaign after May 1951, for instance, the waves of arrests and executions did not actually diminish in many parts of China. On the contrary, they continued to grow, despite the change in Beijing’s policy. In East China, for instance, an additional 110,000 people were arrested and nearly 40,000 were executed after Beijing tried to limit large-scale and unofficially sanctioned arrests and executions.58 A similar pattern in which Beijing sought to scale down aggressive local sentiments appeared in dealing with foreigners living in Chinese cities. Beijing was criticized as cowardly when it set a policy of deporting foreigners who committed “counterrevolutionary” acts; according to one local official’s observation, some even accused the government of being weak-kneed and incompetent toward foreigners and foreign countries.59

Why did Beijing not have a consistent policy, and why did it not exercise greater control over the campaign? In the first place, the direction of the Zhenfan campaign was always linked with the war situation in Korea. For Beijing, the progress of the Korean War was an uncertain variable that could harm the CCP’s domestic programs. For instance, a report from a regional CCP office argued that a lukewarm attitude toward the Zhenfan campaign would be blamed if the war situation turned against China, since such an attitude might place the CCP on the defensive and create difficulties if the advantage was lost.60 As is clear in this report, the Zhenfan campaign was seen as being of a piece with progress in the Korean War. In fact, policy changes in the movement coincided with changes in the war situation.

Related to this, another uncertain, arguably more fundamental variable for CCP officials was the state of popular attitudes at home, which could easily shift as a result of a change in the war situation. As a matter of fact, the question of how the masses would react was raised frequently at moments of policy change in the campaign. For example, when Beijing sought to lower the temperature of the Zhenfan movement in December 1950, it was reasoned that “indiscriminate and multi-directional strikes [should] be avoided lest the overall situation become too tense and we ourselves become isolated.” Mao supported this view, emphasizing: “If our cadres do not have a clear idea … and do not stick strictly to it, … the people will not support us.”61 Then, when Beijing decided to implement a more aggressive and harsh policy in late January 1951, Mao justified it as follows: “If we are irresolute and tolerant to this evil [of counterrevolutionaries], we will alienate the people.”62 As we can see in these comments, consideration of popular attitudes constituted an important part of Beijing’s policy-making logic.

Put simply, the course of the Zhenfan movement was often swayed by circumstances and Beijing’s day-to day observations concerning them, rather than by the CCP’s ideological preferences or Mao’s personality. The spread of the Zhenfan movement further suggests that the phenomenon was not simply a result of CCP political repression but was perpetuated because of its own dynamics—that is, the Campaign to Suppress Counterrevolutionaries as social repression and punishment.

Social Suppression in Communities

Let us briefly look at how the Zhenfan movement functioned at the local level. Beyond ideological slogans and dramatic spectacles at mass meetings, ordinary practices in the movement were less concerned with ideology and political struggles. For example, when members of the Association of Street Vendors in Beijing implemented the campaign in their markets, they used it for their own purposes to tighten morals and order among the membership. Their slogans in this anti-counterrevolutionary campaign were:

No delay in making tax payments.

No cheating of customers.

Always issue receipts.

Use standardized measuring instruments.

Do not charge an artificially raised price.

Keep street stalls clean 63

In addition, “Do not pee or shit by the roadside or inside stalls” was a slogan that the Vendors’ Association advanced in its campaign against “counterrevolutionaries.”64 Many of these topics had no apparent connection to the CCP’s struggles against “counterrevolutionaries,” but, interestingly, this campaign was framed and conducted in the name of “Suppression of Counterrevolutionaries.” It was claimed that street vendors were fighting a different kind of war against counterrevolutionaries on the home front, that cooperation among vendors could stabilize the Chinese economy and public order, and that their tax payments would support the fight against American imperialism on the front lines.65 In short, local people utilized the foreign war and adopted the banner of the Campaign to Suppress Counterrevolutionaries for their own purposes.

Such local use of East-West confrontation was ubiquitous. As in other places, those living in the neighborhood of the Dong’an Market in Beijing adopted a guilt-by-association system during the campaign; under this system, five households formed a group, in which each household would monitor another, and, if one member of a group committed a violation, all members would be punished.66 Such a mutual surveillance system functioned quite efficiently. In one instance, when a street vendor tried to cheat a customer, it was reported that the other vendors all informed on him.67 In another case, local residents in Beijing participated in the Zhenfan movement by forming district patrol groups, though, in addition to searching for “subversive” activities, their primary aim was to prevent fires and thefts.68

In another case, a neighbors’ group interceded in the case of a husband’s engaging in domestic violence, accusing him at a community meeting, at which the man in question offered a self-criticism and promised not to commit domestic violence again.69 A resident of this district described the spirit of the neighborhood as radically improved after the establishment of the neighbors’ group; the area became cleaner, thefts were eliminated, bumpy roads were repaired, and residents’ disputes were settled by the neighbors’ group.70Clearly, as in the case of the Street Vendors’ Association, the Dong’an Market campaigns had almost nothing to do with ideological and political struggles against “counterrevolutionaries.” Rather, when it came to daily practice, locals adopted and developed the campaign in a much more commonplace manner, which functioned not merely as political cleansing but as a mechanism of “social cleansing” in order to restore and maintain order in communities.

These local campaigns on the ground show historical continuity with the past. What local people aimed to achieve was a set of norms, such as cleanliness as opposed to filthiness, unity as opposed to disorder, precision as opposed to laxity—or even corruption—and so on, which, actually, had all been familiar concerns in Chinese history since the late nineteenth century. Therefore, seen from a social point of view, the Zhenfan campaign was not particularly unique to the post-revolutionary period. It even had some similarities to the Nationalist Party’s failed campaign, “Xin Shenghuo Yundong (the New Life Movement),” in the prewar period. According to the historian Arif Dirlik, from the viewpoint of Chiang Kai-shek and GMD leaders in the 1930s, traditional life for the Chinese could be summed up in a few words: filthiness, hedonism, laziness, self-indulgence, and so on. That is why the GMD’s New Life Movement specifically delineated eight criteria to be pursued: orderliness, cleanliness, simplicity, frugality, promptness, precision, harmony, and dignity—some of which were identical to what was sought in local practices of the Zhenfan movement in the communist era.71 The crux of these values was, in sum, an effort to achieve modernity, or even blatant Westernization, in a way that rejected the traditional way of Chinese life, which tended to be described only in negative terms. Viewed in this way, the GMD’s and CCP’s movements did not seem fundamentally different. Although, of course, the terminology was different, both aimed at achieving modernity—a long-standing task, which had been a goal for decades—through mobilizing and uniting the scattered and disorganized people, whom Sun Yat-sen (Sun Wen) once bitterly described as “a heap of loose sand.”72

The fundamental differences between the two were in terms of agency rather than content. In the Zhenfan campaign, informants and investigators were not necessarily official or secret police, as in the GMD era, but largely ordinary people. In fact, various “counterrevolutionary” acts were identified and reported less through official investigations than unofficially through rumors and private accusations among individuals at workplaces, at schools, in communities, in neighborhoods, and in families. Many, to be sure, remained skeptical or critical of the campaigns, particularly the mass executions. “It was too lenient before, but now it is too harsh,” some reportedly said. Others likewise lamented, “It is pitiful to execute the old, and regrettable to kill the young.” Still others were more sympathetic to those accused: “They committed their accused acts perhaps due to the pressure from their livelihood; everyone would do the same if their living became strained.” Some even expressed doubts: “There have been too many executions. There must be some false charges.” Nevertheless, these skeptical and critical views remained the minority, and these opinions were quickly responded to in retorts by others around them: “Well, do you really know how they murdered the people before? Those who were killed by these persons died in much more miserable ways.”73

Clearly, the campaigns could not be fully implemented without the participation of a great number of people. In Shanghai alone, the authorities received more than 70,000 written denunciations.74 Young people in particular were extremely active as informers; a box set up at Fudan University in Shanghai, for instance, received more than 700 reports in a few months in the spring of 1951.75 Reportedly quite a few cases involved children and wives informing on their fathers and husbands, and vice versa.76 An official in Shanghai stated:

During the Campaign to Suppress Counterrevolutionaries, a lot of young people actively joined in the movement, often exposing their own fathers, sisters-in-law, and even close friends as counterrevolutionaries. A multitude of people cooperated with the Public Security Bureau to collect information, participate in surveillance, and arrest counterrevolutionaries.77

Surveillance among the people, among students and workers, and among neighbors and family members, was so intense that many individuals internalized the campaign, restricting their own behavior. Some who came under suspicion voluntarily appeared at public security bureaus, describing their acts and associations, while others simply shut themselves up in their houses, stopped going out, and became isolated from society. In addition, some who possessed small weapons quietly left them at the doors of public security bureaus at night.78

More tellingly, a massive number of people decided to end their lives. Statistical data collected in the summer of 1951 shows that the ages of those who had committed suicide ranged from the early twenties to the early sixties, with those in their thirties the most numerous, and that quite a few wives of those executed as “counterrevolutionaries” also felt compelled to kill themselves.79 Those who committed suicide comprised a diverse group of people—not only landlords and former members of the Nationalist Party but also those categorized as drifters, local rebels, collaborators, and members of secret societies and religious sects, as well as those deemed “feudalistic” and “uncooperative.”80 Such heterogeneity suggests that we reconsider the nature of the Zhenfan movement.

Exactly the same point can be made concerning those who were executed during this period. If the Campaign to Suppress Counterrevolutionaries was purely a movement of political repression carried out by the CCP aimed at the elimination of adversaries, those who were executed and committed suicide should have been mostly political and ideological enemies, such as landlords and businessmen, as well as former GMD members and sympathizers. Yet, to the contrary, a large number, particularly those who had worked for the GMD, such as bureaucrats, police, teachers, and lower-ranking officials, retained their positions and continued to work. Those actually condemned and eliminated during this campaign involved a much broader and diverse group, comprising those who fit more neatly into the category of “social enemies” than that of “political enemies.” They included, for example, members of religious sects such as Yiguandao (Persistent Way), powerful gangs such as Huangniu Bang (Yellow Ox Gang), and secret societies such as Sanhehui (Triads), Qing Bang (Green Gang), and Gelaohui (Elder Brothers), as well as common criminals and those involved in what were considered social evils, such as bandits, murderers, thieves, local bullies, low-level hoodlums, brothel keepers, and prostitutes.81 A British official in Beijing observed that many of those executed were not really “counterrevolutionaries” but “little more than common criminals.”82

Apparently, what these diverse people shared was not a single ideology. They were, rather, symptomatic of the dramatic social confusion and disorder that evolved in the midst of social chaos in the turbulent years of the 1930s and 1940s. These were years in which battles among warlords, the War against Japan, and the Chinese Civil War were fought, and in which social and moral standards seriously deteriorated, if not collapsed, causing massive increases in crime. This was also the time when various kinds of religious sects and secret societies wielded strong presences, though surely they all had their own long histories.83Viewed in this way, the Zhenfan movement in part was a movement of “social purification”—a backlash against social disorder.

A similar point can be observed in regard to the Sanfan wufan (Three-Anti and Five-Anti) movements, which developed in 1951–1953, following the Campaign to Suppress Counterrevolutionaries. Originally, the three antis referred to the CCP’s fight against three “evils”—corruption, extravagance, and bureaucratism—which supposedly represented the evils of capitalism. When actions in the name of this ideological slogan were carried out, however, actual conduct criticized was less ideological and more related to personal characteristics and social behavior, such as going to a dance hall, owning a private car, or engaging in a sexual affair outside marriage.84 One document included a lengthy explanation of typical targets of this movement:

Pursuing personal and selfish pleasure, disliking cotton cloth, buying new leather shoes to replace [ordinary] low-cut shoes, dining out on [costly] noodles instead of having breakfast in a factory, avoiding sitting around a one-pot meal together and preferring a sumptuous meal, accompanying dishes with rice, smoking a cigarette, wishing to live in a Western-style house, envying American bedclothes as comfortable, shunning a train as crowded and desiring to use a car or, at least, a pedicab, ride a pedicab just to go one kilometer, never negotiating price, avoiding cheap articles, and hoping to get things with high quality even though they are expensive.85

The items in this list were not primarily concerned about individuals’ ideological tendencies so much as attitudes and behaviors on a daily basis. What they shared was, rather, an antipathy to things considered non-Chinese or, simply, overly Westernized attitudes and tastes—a sort of a nativist backlash against conspicuous foreign influence, most notably in large cities such as Shanghai and Tianjin.

Simply put, the CCP’s mass movements, such as the Zhenfan and Sanfan movements, were not merely political campaigns under the aegis of the Party. Rather, as they spread and escalated, they seemed to attain other dimensions—that is, first, they were parts of a long-standing goal of modernization, and, second, they were parts of a contingent, large-scale, nativist backlash, whose goal was the creation of a “harmonious” society through the elimination of tens of thousands of nonconformists and various elements of social disorder, including those deemed to have been overly influenced by Western cultures.

Security and Peace

In October 1951, Luo Ruiqing, the minister for public security, praised the Campaign to Suppress Counterrevolutionaries, saying that it “brought a stable situation nationwide that China has never had before in its history.”86 Solely in terms of the level of social stability, unprecedented “peace” and “harmony” had come to China. In Nanning, for instance, the number of criminal cases declined from 4,314 in 1950 to 1,318 in 1951 and 455 in 1954.87 Likewise, in Jiangxi Province, which was known for a low level of public safety and where even CCP officials had to travel with large numbers of heavily armed guards, public security was greatly improved, making it possible for them to travel with only a few guards.88Purely in terms of the number of crimes, Chinese society, indeed, became more secure and peaceful, whatever that meant.

Observing this situation, the Manchester Guardian, which, of course, remained critical of the Zhenfan movement and its purges of nonconformists, accepted the “improvement” in public spirit in Chinese society, writing that “the country as whole is more unified and peaceful than at any time since 1911.”89What the newspaper noted were, for example, a change in attitude of public officials, claiming that one no longer saw the old familiar sight of a police officer slapping and kicking rickshaw coolies and that public-spiritedness was taking the place of excessive individualism.90

In a sense, even if it entailed the killing of tens of thousands of people, and however cruel it was, the Zhenfan movement did provide a sort of “order” through the purification of society and settlement of social confusion and conflicts that developed over the decades of wars in the 1930s and 1940s. The CCP’s propaganda, to be sure, was significant, but far more fundamental was an environment in which this propaganda could be effective—that is, first, the outbreak and development of the Korean War; second, the existence and escalation of domestic conflicts at the same time as the war; and, third, more than anything else, countless ordinary people’s observations, judgments, and behaviors related to both of these.

The Korean War played a significant role, creating a wartime atmosphere and forcing many people—in particular, young people—to connect a foreign war with social problems and to rethink their behavior. Against the background of the war, many shopkeepers competed to make donations, many shoemakers declared their intention to repair soldiers’ shoes for free, many rickshaw pullers signed their names on the Patriotic Pledge or gave their names for it in case they could not write their names, and many students and workers participated in mobilization campaigns or volunteered to be soldiers.91 These were the people at the grassroots level who informed on various acts of “counterrevolution” at workplaces, at schools, in neighborhoods, and in families. These were the people who sought to solve existing social and local problems under the logic of the war and under the banner of the Campaign to Suppress Counterrevolutionaries. These were the people who, as a result, cooperated in the CCP’s modernization and state-making projects against the backdrop of the Korean War. Liu Shaoqi recognized that the CCP’s domestic programs, particularly land reform and the repression of counterrevolutionaries, would have been difficult to maintain without the Korean War.92

We have examined Chinese society and politics during the Korean War by tracing the development and transformation of the Campaign to Suppress Counterrevolutionaries, in which millions of people were killed and sent to prison as “reactionaries.” With the opening of Chinese archives in the past decade, the literature on this topic has grown, but most recent studies have tended to share a set of assumptions, viewing the phenomenon as political and ideological repression conducted by the CCP—with an emphasis on Mao’s role—and, thus, describing it as following a communist path peculiar to post-1949 China. Tracing the multifaceted development of the campaign, however, complicates conventional understandings of the nature, agency, and function of the phenomenon, showing that, in essence, it was not simply the CCP’s ideologically driven one-man show but also involved grassroots social punishment and repression aimed at the purification of society, with the active involvement of everyday people. Viewed in this manner, the campaign was not necessarily unique to China. Rather, using a social perspective, this campaign can be seen as part of the process of social pacification under the logic of East-West confrontation, aimed at creating a harmonious society by eliminating tens of thousands of nonconformists and social minorities, who came to be particularly conspicuous in the chaotic years during and after World War II.

Conclusion

This study of domestic purges circa 1950–1952 in Japan and China sheds light not only on each variation, but their simultaneity, along with similar suppressions in other parts of the world, such as the White Terror in Taiwan, the crackdown on “un-Filipino” activities in the Philippines, and McCarthyism in the United States. Most existing literature has examined these events separately and characterized them as local manifestations of the global Cold War—consequential events but aftereffects of the global confrontation. As a result, the literature has tended to confirm rather than question conventional notions of the Cold War. Such a conventional view, however, appears plausible only when we accept the “reality” of the Cold War and approach each situation using that particular lens.

If we deconstruct Cold War fantasy and look into local and social disputes, however, the situations appear different. The primary focus here is a reassessment of the meaning of these repressions through tracing what happened within societies, rather than limiting investigations to the centers of political power. This is because, if we view a social phenomenon through an examination of political elites, we are apt not to consider the meaning of that phenomenon itself, because it is often considered self-explanatorily a result of those elites’ intentions. Rather, what we have tried to do is to treat the center of power not as the origin, but as a part of social and cultural events. Therefore, although the intentions of those in power have been discussed, the focus has not been on how they led events but how they reacted to them. Instead of beginning with the search for power holders’ intentions, we have delved into each society, paying particular attention to the social mechanisms of repression.

One might raise doubts about the method of treating, for instance, the Red Purge in Japan, the Campaign to Suppress Counterrevolutionaries in China, and McCarthyism in the United States equally, because they were different in many ways. However, the notion that they were utterly and inherently distinct is exactly what we wish to challenge. Even in light of many important differences among and between these incidences of repression, certain similarities are revealed through examining their social and local functions. We have seen that the domestic purges in this period were not so much characteristic of a particular ideology, political regime, or regional culture as related to a simultaneous and shared worldwide phenomenon. The simple questions we have explored are: Who purged whom for what purpose? Why did such similar patterns of domestic repression occur simultaneously around the world? Were there any similarities among these repressions? What were the implications of such a worldwide phenomenon?

A group of women in New York City protesting against the Soviet regime (1951)

First and foremost, all of these societies experienced World War II and various kinds of fundamental social change, which unleashed diverse social, cultural, and political conflicts at home. Put simply, in the aftermath of foreign wars, each society entered a period of “social warfare.” The outbreak of the Korean War evoked many people’s memories of World War II, producing fear of World War III, which, in turn, provided a wartime atmosphere that justified and escalated the purification of society for the security of the public. Such purification campaigns evolved within each national and local context, functioning more or less as mechanisms for resolving emerging social conflicts, pacifying chaotic postwar situations and creating a harmonious social order in each society.

It is important to note that all of these repressive purification campaigns developed at intersections of state mobilization and people’s participation, to protect, or, in some cases, create unity using a binary distinction between “us” and “them.” In each instance, the Cold War logic proved its utility in tamping down social and cultural conflicts in the name of the nation and perpetual security. Taken together, the wave of social purges during the Korean War can be characterized as nativist backlashes—conservative movements, but in terms of social, rather than political, conservatism—each a local phenomenon observed worldwide, aimed at the restoration of “normal” social order and relationships, through purging thousands of nonconformists at home.

Viewed in this way, what becomes clearer is the actuality of local struggles and the imagined nature of the Cold War, as well as the social need in such an imagined reality to overcome “war” at home. In this sense, the actual divide of the Cold War existed less between East and West than within each society, and each, in turn, required the continuation of the Cold War to maintain harmonious order and life at home. From this angle, each instance of local repression was not so much an end result of the Cold War but part of the engine, a component contributing to the creation and maintenance of a gigantic imagined reality in the postwar world. The architects of and participants in this world were, thus, not only power holders in the metropoles of each society but millions of ordinary people in cities and villages all over the world, who consciously and unconsciously engaged in creating security and order at home. It was such an ascent of people’s participation in and the social need of the imagined reality of the Cold War that turned a particular discourse into the actuality of the postwar period, internally functioning to sustain and perpetuate the real global Cold War for decades to follow.

Adapted from Cold War Crucible: The Korean Conflict and the Postwar World by Masuda Hajimu. Copyright (c) 2015 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College. Used by permission. All rights reserved.

Notes

1Sodei Rinjiro, ed., Yoshida Shigeru—Makkasa ofuku shokanshu 1945–1951 The Collection of Correspondence between Yoshida Shigeru and MacArthur 1945–1951] (Tokyo: Hosei Daigaku Shuppankyoku, 2000), 205–206.

2Asahi Shinbunsha Reddo Paji Shogenroku Kanko Iinkai, ed., 1950-nen 7-gatsu 28-nichi: Asahi Shinbunsha no reddo paji shogenroku July 28, 1950: The Collection of Testimonies about the Red Purge at the Asahi Newspaper] (Tokyo: Banseisha, 1981), 28–29; Hirata Tetsuo, Reddo paji no shiteki kyumei [Historical Inquiry into the Red Purge] (Tokyo: Shin Nihon Shuppansha, 2002), 214.

3We still do not know the exact number of dismissals because small businesses and companies were, from the beginning, excluded from statistics. The number given is based on statistics published in “Shakai undo tsushin [Newsletters for Social Movements],” 1 November 1950, Collections of Journals, Ohara Shakai Mondai Kenkyujo [Ohara Institute for Social Studies] (OISS), Hosei University (HU), Tokyo, Japan; see also, for instance, Miyake Akimasa, Reddo paji to wa nani ka [What Was the Red Purge?] (Tokyo: Otsuki Shoten, 1994), 7–10.

4Hans Martin Kramer, “Just Who Reversed the Course? The Red Purge in Higher Education during the Occupation of Japan,” Social Science Japan Journal 8:1 (November 2004), 1–18.

5“Redo paji kanshi [Brief History of Red Purge],” Collections of Documents Related to the Red Purge, No. 17–4, OISS-HU.

6Letter, Burati to Sullivan, 6 September 1950, File 12, Box 1, VBP, WPRL-WSU.

7Robert Amis, interview in Takemae Eiji, Shogen Nihon senryoshi: GHQ Rodoka no gunzo [Oral Testimonies of the Occupation of Japan: The Figures in the Labor Division in the GHQ] (Tokyo: Iwanami, 1983), 324–325.

8See, for instance, Takemae, Shogen Nihon senryoshi, and Miyake, Reddo paji to wa nani ka .

9Letter, Burati to Sullivan, 22 August 1950, File 12, Box 1, VBP, WPRL-WSU.

10Sasaki Ryosuke, interview in Kawanishi, Kikigaki, 56.

11“Shakei undo tsushin [Newsletters for Social Movements],” 25 October 1950, Collections of Journals, OISS-HU; see also Miyake, Reddo paji to wa nani ka, 87–88.

12“Mr. Kaite’s Comments on the ‘Red Expulsion,’” 23 September 1950, File 11, Box 5, Valery Burati Papers (VBP), Walter P. Reuther Library (WPRL), Wayne State University (WSU), Detroit, MI.

13“The Announcement of the President,” 23 October 1950, File 12, Box 5, VBP, WPRL-WSU.

14Letter, Valery Burati to Philip B. Sullivan, 10 May 1951, File 13, Box 1, VBP, WPRL-WSU.

15“Mr. Amis Gives Warning to the Management,” 26 October 1950, File 13, Box 5, VBP, WPRL-WSU.

16“Memo for Mr. Amis,” 24 January 1951, File 15, Box 5, VBP, WPRL-WSU.

17Memorandum, “To Mr. Amis,” n.d., File 15 Box 5, VBP; and “Memo for Mr. Amis,” 8 February 1951, File 15 Box 5, VBP, WPRL-WSU.

18“Memo for Mr. Amis,” 24 January 1951, File 15, Box 5, VBP, WPRL-WSU.

19“Exclusion of Communistic Destructive Elements in Enterprise,” n. d., File 13, Box 5, VBP; and “Nikkan rodo tsushin” [Daily Labor Bulletin], 18 October 1950, File 13, Box 5, VBP, WPRL-WSU.

20“Niigata Tekkosho File,” No. 20–11, Collection of Documents Related to the Red Purge, OISS-HU.

21 Letter, Val Burati to Greechhalgh? International Federation of Textile Workers’ Association, UK, 23 May 1951, File 13, Box 1, VBP, WPRL-WSU.

22 Kawanishi, Kikigaki, 169, 239–240, 263, 303, and 373.

23 Similar remarks can be found in various statements of Densan [All-Japan Electricity Union] and Kawasaki Seitetsu [Kawasaki Steel Company] in this period.

24 Sasaki Ryosaku, interview in Kawanishi, Kikigaki, 77.

25 Documentation of similar experiences can be found in various court records, such as in charge sheets, which are kept in the Collection of Red Purge Documents in the OISS. A group of discharged persons at Yomiuri, Mainichi, and Asashi Shinbun, for instance, sued their companies, and their statements described these struggles; for these companies, see Files No. 20–5. See also various testimonies in 1950-nen 7-gatsu 28-nichi [July 28, 1950.

26 See, for example, court documents in the Collection of Red Purge Documents in the OISS; see also 1950 nen 7 gatsu 28 nichi July 28, 1950], 66 and 132.

27 Shiryo sengo gakusei undo Source Book for Postwar Student Movements], vol. 2 (1950–1951) and vol. 3 (1952–1955) (Tokyo: Sanichi Shobo, 1969).

28 Waseda daigaku shinbun, 1 October 1950 NRR-NDL.

29 Todai gakusei shinbun, 5 October 1950, NRR-NDL; Todai toso nyusu, 11 October 1950 and 24 October 1950, Student Movement File, OISS-HU.

30 “Sodai de kuzen no gakusei fushoji [Unprecedented Student Scandal at Waseda],” Mainichi Shinbun, 18 October 1950; Asahi Shinbun, 18 October 1950. For more detailed discussion of student and peace movements in postwar Japan, see, for example, Masuda Hajimu, “Fear of World War III: Social Politics of Japan’s Rearmament and Peace Movements, 1950–53,” Journal of Contemporary History 47: 3 (Summer 2012), 551–571.

31 Waseda daigaku shinbun, 1 December 1950.

32 “Sodai de kuzen no gakusei fushoji.”

33 Asahi Shinbun, 18 October 1950.

34 Waseda daigaku shinbun, 21 October 1950, NRR-NDL.

35 Asahi shinbun, 9 December 1950; Mainichi shinbun, 19 December 1950.

36 Togawa Yukio, Waseda gakusei shinbun, 7 October 1952. NRR-NDL.

37 For the perspective of the conservatives, such as Yoshida Shigeru, see, for instance, John W. Dower, Empire and Aftermath: Yoshida Shigeru and the Japanese Experience, 1878–1954 (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1979).

38 See, also, Ronald Dore’s earlier fieldwork, such as Land Reform in Japan (New York: Oxford University Press, 1959) and City Life in Japan: A Study of a Tokyo Ward (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1958).

39Letter, anonymous Kyoto resident to Ashida Hitoshi, Correspondence File, No. 284–3, AHP, MJPHMR-NDL.

40 Ibid.

41 Letter, Hidaka Hiroshi to Ashida Hitoshi, Correspondence File, No. 272, AHP, MJPHMR-NDL.

42 Ibid.

43 Takekura Kin’ichiro, Kirarera batten: Shiryo reddo paji [Got Fired: Documents on the Red Purge] (Fukuoka: Densan Kyushu Futo Kaiko Hantai Domei, 1980); see also various memoirs and local history books, such as Tokyo Hachi-ni-roku kai, ed., 1950-nen 8-gatsu 26-nichi: Densan reddo paji 30-shunen kinen bunshu [August 26, 1950: The Thirty-Year Anniversary Collection of the Densan Red Purge] (Tokyo: Tokyo Hachinirokukai, 1983); 1950-nen 7-gatsu 28-nichi; Amagasaki reddo paji mondai kondankai, ed., Kaiso Amagasaki no reddo paji [Recollections: Red Purge in Amagasaki] (Osaka: Kobunsha, 2002); and Fukushima-ken minshushi kenkyukai, ed., Hatsudensho no reddo paji: Densan Inawashiro bunkai [The Red Purge in Power Plant: Densan’s Inawashiro Branch] (Tokyo: Koyoshuppansha, 2001).

44 “Public ‘Confession’ and Execution,” Manchester Guardian, 14 November 1951; “China: Mass Slaughter,” Time, 30 April 1951; “China: Justice on the Radio,” Time, 7 May 1951; “China: Kill Mice!” Time, 21 May 1951; and a report of the Shanghai Military Control Commission, Xinwen Ribao, 25 July 1951. Also, see memorandum, Tientsin [Tianjin] to Foreign Office, UK, 13 July 1951, in “Reports, Comments and Information from Many Sources Showing the Extension of Power of the Ruling Chinese Communists over the Political, Social and Economic Life of the Whole of China …” FO371/92204, TNA. See, also, Yang Kuisong, “Reconsidering the Campaign to Suppress Counterrevolutionaries,” China Quarterly, no. 193 (March 2008), 111; and Julia Strauss, “Morality, Coercion, and State Building by Campaign in the Early PRC: Regime Consolidation and After, 1949–1956,” in Julia Strauss ed., The History of the PRC, 1949–1976: The China Quarterly Special Issues New Series No. 7 (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007), 52–53.

45 “Shanghaishi junshi guanzhi weiyuanhui panchu fangeming anfan de juedingshu [Shanghai Military Control Commission’s Written Verdicts on the Cases of Counterrevolutionaries],” 12 May 1951, B1–2–1050–45, SMA.

46 Ibid., 18 April 1951, B1–2–1050–62, SMA.

47 Ibid., 28 May 1951, B1–2–1063–12, SMA.

48 Norimura Kaneko, Zanryu shoujo no mita chousen sensou no koro [The Time of the Korean War through the Eyes of a War-Displaced Japanese Girl] (Tokyo: Shakai shisosha, 1992), 96–98.

49 Ibid., 98–102.

50 Ibid., 102–105.

51 Luo Ruiqing, “Weida de zhenya fangeming yundong [The Great Campaign to Suppress Counterrevolutionaries],” Renmin ribao, 1 October 1951.

52 See telegrams, memorandums, and reports sent from Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Wuhan, Nanjing, and other places to the Foreign Office, U.K. between March and July 1951. These documents can be found in a series of files, called “Extension of Power of the Chinese Communists,” from FO371/92192 to FO371/92206, TNA.

53 Telegram, Beijing to Foreign Office, 6 April 1951, in “Extension of Power of the Chinese Communists,” FO371/92196, TNA.

54 These numbers were based on Deputy Public Security Minister Xu Zirong’s report in 1954, which was recounted in Yang, “Reconsidering the Campaign to Suppress Counterrevolutionaries,” 120–121. Frank Dikötter estimates the scale of terror much larger, with an estimate of total death at “close to 2 million people.” See Frank Dikötter, The Tragedy of Liberation: A History of the Chinese Revolution, 1945-57 (New York: Bloomsbury Press, 2013), x, 99-100. In fact, a British diplomat who was in Shanghai at that time reported that, in his opinion, actual figures of death toll would far exceed those acknowledged officially. See a telegram from Shanghai to Foreign Office, 8 June 1951, in “Extension of Power of the Chinese Communists,” FO371/92198, TNA.

55 Yang, “Reconsidering the Campaign to Suppress Counterrevolutionaries,” 102–121; idem, “Xin Zhongguo zhenfan yundong shimo [The Story of the Suppression of Counterrevolutionaries in New China]” and “Shanghai zhenfan yundong de lishi kaocha [Historical Examination of the Campaign to Suppress Counterrevolutionaries in Shanghai],” in Yang Kuisong, Zhonghua renmin gongheguo jianguo shi yanjiu [A Study of the History of the Establishment of the People’s Republic of China], vol. 1 (Nanchang: Jiangxi renmin chubanshe, 2009), 168–217 and 218–259; Strauss, “Morality, Coercion, and State Building by Campaign in the Early PRC,” 37–58; Julia Strauss, “Paternalist Terror: The Campaign to Suppress Counterrevolutionaries and Regime Consolidation in the People’s Republic of China, 1950–1953,” Comparative Studies in Society and History, 44:1 (January 2002), 80–105; Frederic Wakeman Jr., “‘Cleanup’: The New Order in Shanghai,” in Jeremy Brown and Paul Pickowicz, eds., Dilemmas of Victory: The Early Years of the People’s Republic of China (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2007), 21–58; Konno Jun, Chugoku shakai to taishu doin: Mo takuto jidai no seiji kenryoku to minshu [Chinese Society and Mass Mobilization: Political Power and People in the Era of Mao Zedong] (Tokyo: Ochanomizu shobou, 2008); and Izutani Yoko, Chugoku kenkoku shoki no seiji to keizai: Taishu undo to shakai shugi taisei [Politics and Economy in the Early Period of the People’s Republic of China: Mass Movements and Socialist Regime] (Tokyo: Ochanomizu shobou, 2007).

56 Yang, “Reconsidering the Campaign to Suppress Counterrevolutionaries,” 104–105, 107–108.

57 Ibid., 106.

58 Ibid., 117–119.

59 “Gong’anbu guanyu qunzhong dui chuli waiji fan geming fenzi de fanying [Memorandum from the Ministry of Public Security Concerning Popular Responses Toward Dealing with Foreign Counterrevolutionaries],” June 25, 1951, No. 118–00306–15, FMA. For the official policy of the Foreign Affairs Ministry, see, e.g., “Zhongyang guanyu waiguo fangeming de chuli wenti dao gedi de zhishi dian [Directive from the Central Government to Various Regions Concerning the Issue of Dealing with Foreign Counterrevolutionaries],” 2 August 1951, No. 118–00306–01, FMA. In this telegram, Beijing declared that, in general, foreigners who were considered counterrevolutionaries would be deported from the country, and basically would not be executed.

60“Zhongnanqu guanyu zhenya fangeming de zhishi de dianbao [Telegram of the Mid-South Regional Bureau Concerning the Directive of Suppression of Counterrevolutionaries],” 30 November 1950, No. 118–00306–16, FMA.

61 Yang, “Reconsidering the Campaign to Suppress Counterrevolutionaries,” 106.

62Ibid., 107.

63 “Beijing shi tanshang Kang-Mei Yuan-Chao jingsai yundong youguan wenjian [Documents Related to Beijing Street Vendors’ Movements to Resist America and Aid Korea],” No. 022–012–00497, pp.25, 142, 185–187, and 194, BMA.

64 Ibid., 194.

65 Ibid., 196.

66 “Dong’an shichang Kang-Mei Yuan-Chao aiguo yundong [Kang-Mei Yuan-Chao Patriotic Movements in the Dong’an Market],” 14 May 1951, in “Beijing shi tanfan Kang-Mei Yuan-Chao gongzuo jihua zongjie [Planning and Summing-Up of Beijing Street Vendors’ Work of Resisting American and Aiding Korea]” (hereafter “Beijing Street Vendors’ Work of Kang-Mei Yuan-Chao”), 42–43, No. 022–010–00314, BMA.

67 Ibid., 15 May 1951, 96, No. 022–010–00314, BMA.

68 Ibid., 132–134, No. 022–012–00497, BMA.

69 Izutani Yoko, Chugoku kenkoku shoki no seiji to keizai: Taishu undo to shakai shugi taisei [Politics and Economy in the Early Period of the People’s Republic of China: Mass Movements and the Socialist Regime] (Tokyo: Ochanomizu shobou, 2007), 224–225.

70 Ibid., 225.

71 Arif Dirlik, “The Ideological Foundations of the New Life Movements: A Study of Counterrevolution,” Journal of Asian Studies, 34: 4 (August 1974), 954–958.

72 “A New Pattern of Life,” Manchester Guardian, 20 November 1950.

73 “Beijing qunzhong dui zhenya fangeming de fanying [Popular Reactions in Beijing toward the Suppression of Counterrevolutionaries],” 9 April 1951, Neibu Cankao, CUHK; “Lanzhou zhenya fangeming fenzi hou de shehui fanying [Social Reactions after the Suppression of Counterrevolutionaries in Lanzhou],” 9 April 1951, Neibu Cankao, CUHK; and Strauss, “Morality, Coercion, and State Building by Campaign in the Early PRC,” 51.

74 Konno, Chugoku shakai to taishu doin, 119–120.

75 “1951 nian shangbannian yilai jinxing Kang-Mei Yuan-Chao aiguo zhuyi jiaoyu de qingkuang baogao [A Report on Situations Concerning the Ongoing Patriotism Education to Resist America and Aid Korea in the First Half of 1951],” 21 September 1951, C21–1–108–13, SMA.

76 “Jiaoqu funü Kang-Mei Yuan-Chao aiguo yundong 4 yue zongjie [The Summary of Women’s Activities of the Resist America and Aid Korea Patriotic Movements on the Outskirts of Beijing in April],” April 1951, No. 084–003–00008, BMA; and “China: Mass Slaughter,” Time, 30 April 1951.

77 “Qingnian tuan Shanghai shiwei guanyu zai Kang-Mei Yuan-Chao, zhenya fangeming yu tudi gaige yundong zhong dui shehui qingnian gongzuo de zongjie [The Youth Group in the Shanghai City Committee’s Final Report Concerning The Activities Toward the Youth During The Movements of Resisting-America and Assisting Korea, Suppression of Counterrevolutionaries, and Land Reform],” 17 October 1951, No. C21–1–143, SMA.

78 Jingshi fangeming fenzi luxu tanbai dengji jiaochu wuqi [Counterrevolutionaries in Beijing Are Confessing, Registering, and Surrendering Their Weapons One After Another, But There Are Some Special Agents and Bandits Who Still Refuse to Realise Their Errors and Continues Their Activities],” 13 April 1951, Neibu cankao, CUHK.

79 “Shanghai Shijiao quwei guanyu zhenya fangeming de qingkuang tongjibiao; fangeming fenzi zisha dengji biao [Statistical Tables Concerning the Situation of Suppression of Counterrevolutionaries on the Outskirts of Shanghai; Tables Registering the Suicides of Counterrevolutionaries],” 25 July 1951, No. 71–2–94, SMA.

80 Ibid.

81 Memorandum, Beijing to Foreign Office “A Final Report on China,” October 1951, in “Extension of Power of the Chinese Communists,” FO371/92206; telegram, Beijing to Foreign Office, 19 January 1951, ibid., FO371/92192; telegrams, Beijing to Foreign Office 3 and 6 March 1951, ibid., FO371/92194; as well as telegram, Foreign Office to Embassies, 11 May 1951, “China: Political Situation,” DO133/27; and Telegram, Beijing to Foreign Office, 7 April 1952, ibid, DO133/28, all at TNA. Also, see Strauss, “Morality, Coercion, and State Building by Campaign in the Early PRC,” 46–48.

82 Telegram, Beijing to Foreign Office, 3 March 1951, “Extension of Power of the Chinese Communists,” FO371/92194, TNA.

83 Fukumoto Katsukiyo, Chugoku kakumei o kake nuketa autorotachi: dohi to ryubo no sekai [Outlaws in the Chinese Revolution: The World of Local Rebels and Rogues] (Tokyo: Chuo koronsha, 1998).

84 Konno, Chugoku shakai to taishu doin, 102.

85 “‘Gongchang sanfan yundong tongbao’ 1951 nian di 2 hao [‘Bulletin of Sanfan movements in Factories’ Vol. 2, 1951],” 12 February 1952, in “‘Gongchang sanfan yundong tongbao’ ji gongchang sanfan zonghe qingkuang [‘Bulletins of Sanfan movements in Factories’ and the comprehensive situation of the Sanfan movements in factories],” cited in Konno, Chugoku shakai to taishu doin, 127.

86 Luo Ruiqing, “Weida de zhenya fangeming yundong [The great campaign to suppress counterrevolutionaries],” Renmin Ribao, 1 October 1951,; Konno, Chugoku shakai to taishu doin, 92–93.

87 Yang, “Xin Zhongguo zhenfan yundong shimo,” 203–204.

88 Ibid., 204.

89 “The Credit in the Balance-Sheet,” Manchester Guardian, 17 November 1950.

90 Ibid.

91 “Beijing Street Vendors’ Workings of Kang-Mei Yuan-Chao,” 23–25, No. 022–010–00314, BMA.

92 Yang, “Reconsidering the Campaign to Suppress Counterrevolutionaries,” 105.

Masuda Hajimu‘s research focuses on the modern history of Japan and East Asia, the history of U.S. foreign relations, and the social and global history of the Cold War. A former journalist for Mainichi Shinbun and the author of articles in Foreign Policy, Diplomatic History, Journal of Contemporary History, and the Journal of Cold War Studies, he has analyzed the evolving power of the people in the modern world, regardless of any political spectrum, with particular attention to intersections between war and society and politics and culture in the mid-20th century. His first book, Cold War Crucible: The Korean Conflict and the Postwar World, published by Harvard University Press in 2015, has been reviewed in 20 publications. Masuda received his Ph.D. from Cornell University in 2012, and currently is an Assistant Professor in the Department of History at the National University of Singapore.

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Dating back to the 1972 rapprochement between President Richard Nixon and Chairman Mao Zedong, the complexities of the US-China relationship have been in a league of their own. Brought together by their shared grand strategy of addressing the threat of the former Soviet Union, the two leaders sowed the seeds of what could well be the most important economic relationship of the 21st century.

But the trajectory of this relationship, which has hardly evolved in a straight line, is now very much in question. As a candidate for president, Donald Trump was strident in his expression of politically charged anti-China rhetoric on a wide range of issues. At the top of his list was trade – and its alleged deleterious impact on jobs, wages, and America’s once preeminent manufacturing sector.

But that was just campaign rhetoric. The hope was that the most strident rhetoric would be tempered, as is normally the case in the aftermath of a tough election. Yet that has not been the case in the early days of Donald Trump’s presidency. As America’s 45th president now turns to governance, early indications suggest that he had done little to move away from his campaign agenda. Therein lies the risk.

21 February 1972, from left: Zhou, interpreter Nancy Tang, Mao, Nixon, and Kissinger

The Trump Administration has left little doubt that it will be going after China. Its initial pronouncements point to a wide range of economic and political sanctions – from imposing punitive tariffs and designating China as a “currency manipulator” to denouncing Chinese territorial claims in the South China Seas to embracing Taiwan and establishing the long sacrosanct “One-China” policy as a bargaining chip.

This approach suffers from one critical strategic flaw: It is based on the mistaken belief that a newly muscular United States has all the leverage in dealing with its presumed adversary – or that any Chinese response is hardly worth considering. Nothing could be further from the truth – especially when it comes to economic and financial considerations.

A Two-Way Relationship

Contrary to conventional wisdom, the US and Chinese economies actually are both heavily dependent on each other. Shifts in the support of either nation for the other have played an important role in shaping the growth experience of both economies over the past several decades. This two-way relationship is likely to have equally profound implications for what may now lie ahead.

Yes, the US has long been one of China’s largest and most lucrative export markets – and thus a central pillar of its spectacular 35-year development trajectory. Exports went from 5% of Chinese GDP in 1979 to 36% in pre-crisis 2007 – by far the sharpest increase of any major sector in the Chinese economy over that same period. Since 2000, the United States has accounted for an average of 19% of total Chinese exports – easily the largest country-specific market for Chinese exports, albeit slightly below the multi-country pan-European share beginning in 2006. Needless to say, closing off the US market, as the Trump Administration appears to be threatening, would certainly crimp Chinese economic growth – a threat that China hardly takes lightly.

But there is another side to this coin: The US has also become heavily dependent on China, which is now America’s third largest export market (behind Canada and Mexico) and its fastest growing source of foreign demand for American-made products over the past decade. Moreover, with China long the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries and other dollar-based assets – albeit slipping slightly below Japan in late 2016 – its hoard of over $1.25 trillion of Treasuries and other dollar-based assets has played a vital role in funding America’s chronic budget deficits.

In other words, China has not only been providing US consumers cheap and increasingly high quality products and American exporters with an increasingly important source of foreign demand, but it has also been lending much of its surplus saving to a United States that has been woefully derelict in saving enough to support its own economy. Moreover, in America’s zero interest rate environment of recent years, these loans have been the functional equivalent of Chinese donations – driven less by rate-of-return considerations and more by China’s tactics of currency management aimed at keeping the renminbi (or the yuan) in relatively close alignment with the US dollar.

All in all, an interruption of Chinese capital inflows or a disruption of bilateral trade between the two nations would hardly be inconsequential for the United States. Like China in the event of a curtailment of US demand for its products, in the face of diminished Chinese support, the US economy would also be in trouble.

Deep Roots

The roots of this two-way dependency – the economic equivalent of what psychologists call codependency – can be traced back to the initial engagement of Nixon and Mao. But it took challenging economic developments in both nations to create a sense of need that ultimately cemented this relationship. That need is an important part of the recent history of both nations.

Back in the early 1980s, in the wake of the Cultural Revolution, which left its economy in shambles, China was desperate for a new source of economic growth. Coming out of a destructive bout of “stagflation” of the late 1970s and early 1980s, the US also needed a new economic recipe. The hard-pressed American consumer solved both problems, by becoming a powerful source of external support for Chinese growth and by benefiting from the lower prices of products made in China.

The two countries thus entered into an awkward marriage of convenience that served each other’s needs. China built an increasingly powerful export-driven economy as the Ultimate Producer while the US embraced the ethos of Ultimate Consumer.

As mirror images of each other, interactions between the two economies became increasingly comfortable and ultimately addictive – so much so that these codependent partners were keen to enable each other’s economic identities. The US opened the door to China’s accession to the World Trade Organization in late 2001 – a milestone in China’s ascendancy as the Ultimate Producer. And China’s voracious appetite for Treasuries in the early 2000s helped keep US interest rates low, sustaining the froth in asset markets that allowed the Ultimate Consumer to live well beyond its means – until, of course, the music stopped in 2008.

At the same time, the marriage of convenience has had its rough edges for both the US and China. Both economies took their stylized growth models to excess and unmistakable imbalances emerged. Fixated on production, the private consumption share of the Chinese economy started to plunge – ultimately falling to 35% of its GDP by 2010, about half that of the United States. Meanwhile, fixated on consumption, job creation in the US manufacturing sector continued its long descent – falling from a modern peak of 32% of total nonfarm employment in 1952 to just 8.5% in late 2016. Needless to say, this latter trend – traceable in large part to technological change, international specialization, and globalization – largely predates the rise of modern China; in fact, more than 80% of the decline in the manufacturing share of US employment had occurred prior to China’s WTO accession in late 2001. This point seems all but lost on a Trump Administration that wants to blame America’s secular decline in manufacturing jobs on the more recent rise of China.

11 November 2001

Of course, the United States and China are hardly unique in their economic codependency. Indeed, some elements of mutual reliance are evident in most of the world’s major trade and economic relationships. Trade in general, and China-US trade in particular, has certainly been growing steadily over time – at least, until recently. Trade has surged as a share of world output – with exports rising from 17% of world GDP in 1986 to a record 31.5% in 2008 before flattening out in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008-09.

Moreover, codependency is not just an economic phenomenon. Cross-border trade in goods and services has also been tied to important defense and security linkages around the world. That is certainly the case with relationships that the United States has with its major allies in the Asia Pacific, especially Japan, South Korea, and Australia. In each of these instances, the balancing act between trade and geostrategic security – especially, the hosting of US military bases – is an important aspect of the glue that binds these nations together. Needless to say, mounting tensions in the South China Sea can only complicate this delicate balance.

A Precarious Codependency

While both the United States and China have been largely successful thus far in maintaining stability in their codependent relationship, there are no guarantees this will continue. Indeed, as in the case of humans, economic codependency has the potential to turn into a very destructive relationship. Blinded by the gratification phase of their codependency, partners can eventually lose their way – becoming so caught up in their role of serving the other that they ultimately lose sight of their economic sense of self. Therein lies the ultimate twist of codependency: one partner invariably looks inward and turns on the other, in order to recapture that missing piece of its identity. That, in fact, is now a growing risk for the United States and China.

Indeed, that is precisely where Donald Trump enters the relationship. By targeting China as the villain that purportedly prevents America from being great, the recent and prospective escalation of US-Sino tensions is worrisome, to say the least. Trump has assembled a team of like-minded senior trade advisers to plan the attack. From Peter Navarro as Director of the National Trade Council and author of the highly inflammatory book, Death by China, to Wilbur Ross as Commerce Secretary, Robert Lighthizer as US Trade Representative, and Rex Tillerson as Secretary of State, the new administration’s anti-China credentials are without modern precedent.

Yet their battle plan overlooks a critical risk: Codependency is a highly reactive relationship. When one partner changes the terms of engagement, the other, feeling scorned, usually responds in kind. And that, in fact, is exactly what is occurring, as the early efforts of the Trump Administration risk destabilizing the US-Sino relationship.

In the aftermath of a highly provocative December 2 phone call between Donald Trump and Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen that seemingly elevated Taiwan’s status from “renegade province” to sovereign nation, stunned Chinese officials said little at first. But as Trump’s China-bashing strategy started to crystalize around the advisers he appointed and the issues he raised – especially his subsequent challenge to the long sacrosanct “One-China policy” – China’s official media finally warned that “big sticks” would be used in defense, if need be. A February 9 telephone exchange between Presidents Xi and Trump seems to have defused this issue for the time being, with the US President backing down from his earlier bellicose threats regarding Taiwan and the One-China framework. But volatility apparently is the norm for the new Trump Administration and there is no telling if and when there will be another twist on this key issue. At a minimum, President Trump has put Beijing on notice that nothing is off the table when it comes to dealing with China.

Team Trump has moved quickly to destabilize other aspects of the relationship, as well. In his Senate confirmation hearing, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson upped the ante on the possibility of US military action in the South China Sea. Moreover, the new president has threatened to abrogate America’s carbon reduction pledges, a step that would undermine previously negotiated joint US-China commitments to climate change and ultimately threaten the global Paris Accord. And Trump’s suggestions that Japan and South Korea should be responsible for their own nuclear weapons capability could have far reaching implications for China’s posture in pan-Asian security matters.

All of this suggests that we now could be moving into the reactive phase of a destabilized codependency. Rhetorical tit for tat is only the start. If US threats are converted into action – or just appear to be moving in that direction – the scorned partner, China, would be quick to hit back. And if that occurs, America will then have to face the consequences of the Chinese response.

A Risky Endgame

Smugly confident that the US has nothing to fear when it comes to China, the Trump administration risks a major miscalculation. America could quickly feel the full wrath of Chinese economic and financial retaliation – the big sticks, in China’s words. If President Trump follows through with his long telegraphed threats, expect China to reciprocate with sanctions on US companies operating there, and ultimately with tariffs on US imports – hardly trivial considerations for a growth-starved US economy.

Also expect China to be far less interested in buying Treasury debt – a potentially serious problem, given the expanded federal budget deficits that are likely under Trumponomics in light of the new administration’s pledge of large tax cuts for individuals and businesses, together with massive commitments to rebuilding American infrastructure. Without Chinese demand for Treasuries, the US risks having to make concessions on the terms by which it has been able to attract foreign capital – in effect, putting upward pressure on interest rates and/ or downward pressure on the value of the US dollar, reversing the greenback’s recent strengthening. And, of course, in the event of a further escalation of sanctions by the US, China could tighten the screws even further by outright sales from its massive portfolio of dollar-denominated assets.

But the greatest tragedy for the US may well be the toll all of this takes on the American consumer. “America first” – whether it comes at the expense of China or via the so-called border-tax equalization (basically taxing imports but not exports) that appears to be a central feature of proposed corporate tax reforms – will unwind many of the efficiencies of global supply chains that hold down prices of a broad range of consumer goods in the US.

In the absence of low-cost global production platforms, or in the face of tax-related dilution of their impacts, the so-called Wal-Mart value proposition will be drawn into serious question. By now, American consumers have gotten used to low-price imports. They count on them to make ends meet in an era of anemic wage and income growth. If Trump’s China policy causes those prices to rise, middle-class workers, Trump’s core constituency, will be the biggest losers.

The Unraveling of America’s Social Compact?

Largely for those reasons, the pitfalls of codependency raise profound questions about America’s social compact – and the role that globalization and trade play in supporting that compact. The income generating capacity of the US economy has, in fact, been under extraordinary pressure since the 1970s. Yet that hasn’t stopped America from consuming beyond its means and drawing down domestic saving in order to make ends meet.

US politicians and policymakers have been put under enormous pressure to respond to those forces. And they have taken great risk in doing so by borrowing heavily from surplus savers from abroad – in effect, condoning chronic current account and multilateral trade deficits as a price for sustaining US economic growth. And that’s, of course, where China fits into the story, with its outsize supply of cheap goods and surplus saving.

China, with its own set of powerful aspirations, has been more than willing to step into that role. In other words, US-China codependency is an outgrowth of the strategy America has embraced in order to finesse what otherwise might have been a far more tenuous prosperity. If the Trump Administration wants to reduce China’s role in the implementation of that strategy, then the United States will have to find another partner(s) to fill the void – and in doing so probably pay a steeper price in terms of interest rates and/ or the dollar in order to attract surplus saving.

Unwittingly or not, all of this has left the US economy in a precarious state – vulnerable to sharp downdrafts in asset markets or to withdrawals of surplus saving from abroad. And this can only intensify the debate over the political economy of prosperity. Unable to deliver on the social compact of the American Dream – a progressive state of prosperity with each generation doing better than its parents – Washington needs foreign lenders such as China in order to close the gap. They have not only loaned us their surplus savings but by doing so they have helped keep interest rates low, asset markets frothy, and an asset-dependent US economy growing.

Like it or not, putting pressure on China – saving-short America’s low cost provider of foreign goods and external capital – could force the United States to face one of its most formidable challenges: To the extent that China has enabled the US to avoid otherwise tough economic and financial pressures, codependency has worked to our advantage. Tearing up the rules of engagement between the two nations could well unmask the tenuous equilibrium in this grand bargain. In the end, it all boils down to the political economy of prosperity – in effect, bringing into focus the geopolitical compromises nations are willing to make in order to sustain economic prosperity.

In this vein, the search for new sources of funding could prove especially daunting for a Trump Administration that has also taken aim at Germany and Japan, the second and third largest pools of surplus saving in the world, respectively. Without a new source of external capital, the United States will then have no choice other than finally to face up to the need to boost domestic saving by cutting federal budget deficits – as noted above, not exactly a realistic assessment of the fiscal trajectory of Trumponomics. Failing to do that, US investment, the seed corn of future growth and prosperity, could then be at risk.

In the end, Sino-American codependency not only poses a formidable challenge to Trump’s strategy of China bashing but it raises even deeper questions about what truly needs to be done to “Make America Great Again.” In his inaugural address, Donald Trump insisted that, “Protectionism will lead to great prosperity and strength.” If actions against China turn out to be the means toward this end, the pitfalls of codependency frame the ominous prospect of a rupture in the world’s most important economic relationship, with potentially devastating spillovers on the rest of the world. Those same pitfalls underscore China’s role in America’s growth equation and pose the related tough question of how that equation gets solved without China.

Stephen S. Roach, a faculty member at Yale University and former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, is the author of Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China (2014).

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Former liberal congressman and presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich said Tuesday:

What’s at the core of this is an effort by some in the intelligence community to upend any positive relationship between the U.S. and Russia. And I tell you there’s a marching band and Chowder Society out there. There’s gold in them there hills. There are people trying to separate the U.S. and Russia so that this military industrial intel axis can cash in.

***

The American people have to know that there’s a game going on inside the intelligence community… at the bottom of all this is the fact that there are those that seek to separate US from Russia to reignite the cold war… that’s what’s at the bottom of all this …. Wake up America!!

***

What’s going on in the intelligence community with this new president is unprecedented. They’re making every effort trying to upend him.

***

It’s not just this administration. I want to remind the views and all those who are on the panel that in the closing months of the Obama administration, they put together a deal with Russia to create peace in Syria. A few days later, a military strike in Syria killed a hundred Syrian soldiers and that ended the agreement. What happened is inside the intelligence and the Pentagon there was a deliberate effort to sabotage an agreement the White House made.

Similarly, Pulitzer prize winning journalist Glenn Greenwald said today:

The deep state, although there’s no precise or scientific definition, generally refers to the agencies in Washington that are permanent power factions. They stay and exercise power even as presidents who are elected come and go. They typically exercise their power in secret, in the dark, and so they’re barely subject to democratic accountability, if they’re subject to it at all. It’s agencies like the CIA, the NSA and the other intelligence agencies, that are essentially designed to disseminate disinformation and deceit and propaganda, and have a long history of doing not only that, but also have a long history of the world’s worst war crimes, atrocities and death squads. This is who not just people like Bill Kristol, but lots of Democrats are placing their faith in, are trying to empower, are cheering for as they exert power separate and apart from—in fact, in opposition to—the political officials to whom they’re supposed to be subordinate.

And you go—this is not just about Russia. You go all the way back to the campaign, and what you saw was that leading members of the intelligence community, including Mike Morell, who was the acting CIA chief under President Obama, and Michael Hayden, who ran both the CIA and the NSA under George W. Bush, were very outspoken supporters of Hillary Clinton. In fact, Michael Morell went to The New York Times, and Michael Hayden went to The Washington Post, during the campaign to praise Hillary Clinton and to say that Donald Trump had become a recruit of Russia. The CIA and the intelligence community were vehemently in support of Clinton and vehemently opposed to Trump, from the beginning. And the reason was, was because they liked Hillary Clinton’s policies better than they liked Donald Trump’s. One of the main priorities of the CIA for the last five years has been a proxy war in Syria, designed to achieve regime change with the Assad regime. Hillary Clinton was not only for that, she was critical of Obama for not allowing it to go further, and wanted to impose a no-fly zone in Syria and confront the Russians. Donald Trump took exactly the opposite view. He said we shouldn’t care who rules Syria; we should allow the Russians, and even help the Russians, kill ISIS and al-Qaeda and other people in Syria. So, Trump’s agenda that he ran on was completely antithetical to what the CIA wanted. Clinton’s was exactly what the CIA wanted, and so they were behind her. And so, they’ve been trying to undermine Trump for many months throughout the election. And now that he won, they are not just undermining him with leaks, but actively subverting him. There’s claims that they’re withholding information from him, on the grounds that they don’t think he should have it and can be trusted with it. They are empowering themselves to enact policy.

Now, I happen to think that the Trump presidency is extremely dangerous.

***

And it is important to resist them. And there are lots of really great ways to resist them, such as getting courts to restrain them, citizen activism and, most important of all, having the Democratic Party engage in self-critique to ask itself how it can be a more effective political force in the United States after it has collapsed on all levels. That isn’t what this resistance is now doing. What they’re doing instead is trying to take maybe the only faction worse than Donald Trump, which is the deep state, the CIA, with its histories of atrocities, and say they ought to almost engage in like a soft coup, where they take the elected president and prevent him from enacting his policies. And I think it is extremely dangerous to do that. Even if you’re somebody who believes that both the CIA and the deep state, on the one hand, and the Trump presidency, on the other, are extremely dangerous, as I do, there’s a huge difference between the two, which is that Trump was democratically elected and is subject to democratic controls, as these courts just demonstrated and as the media is showing, as citizens are proving. But on the other hand, the CIA was elected by nobody. They’re barely subject to democratic controls at all. And so, to urge that the CIA and the intelligence community empower itself to undermine the elected branches of government is insanity. That is a prescription for destroying democracy overnight in the name of saving it. And yet that’s what so many, not just neocons, but the neocons’ allies in the Democratic Party, are now urging and cheering. And it’s incredibly warped and dangerous to watch them do that.

***

The idea that Donald Trump is some kind of an agent or a spy of Russia, or that he is being blackmailed by Russia and is going to pass secret information to the Kremlin and endanger American agents on purpose, is an incredibly crazy claim that has been nowhere proven to be true. It reminds me of the kind of things Glenn Beck used to say about Obama while he stood at his chalkboard and drew those—those unstable charts that he drew, these wild conspiracy theories that are without evidence.

We ought to have a serious, sober, structured investigation of the claims that Russia hacked the DNC and John Podesta’s emails and that there were improper ties between Donald Trump and the Russians, and that ought to be made public so that we can see the information. But this constant media obsession of leaking whatever someone whispers to them about Donald Trump and Russia, because they know it will get their reporters huge numbers of retweets on Twitter and tons of traffic by people who are being fed what they want to hear, is really feeding into the worst kind of hysteria and even fake news that the media says they’re trying to combat. These are really serious claims that merit serious investigation, and that’s exactly what we’re not getting.

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Writing about Cuban economy in Cubadebate, Jose Luis Rodriguez (ex Minister of Economy in Cuba, current Advisor, Centre for Research on the World Economy) explains Cuban economic performance in a challenging period while he highlights concerns Cuba faces, economic areas such as export of goods and services, imports, national oil production and the national external debt.

Yet, among his serious challenges Rodriguez includes the impact the passing of Fidel Castro, has had on Cuba and its people. It was a bad year but one that included a particular bad thing, the passing of Fidel.  It is clear for us to see the loss of their “commander in chief,” the historic leader of the Cuban Revolution, who Rodriguez describes as “the most brilliant disciple of Jose Marti” (Marti himself being a Latin American hero), has been painful to Cubans.

Thus, Cuban perspective continues to be capable of including human pain and heart aches among the challenges in their economic reports. Good for them. It is interesting though that for most economic models human pain, heart ache, loss, does not count for much. Imagine how different our economic reports would be if the heart aches of the unemployed or underemployed, the pain of the homeless or those who have lost their homes because of financial woes were included. And what about the personal pain of women, of men, and children with no access to health care, free education and basics in the world?  We manage to present rosy pictures of ugly times by leaving human suffering and pain mostly outside economic reports, evaluations and discussions.

Thus, we can accept a criminal economic model and call it euphemistically “neoliberal” –nothing new about it, nothing particularly liberal either, or capitalism with a human face, a true oxymoron. Even our focus on growth and increased wealth for the top layer of society goes without question. We allow, unfortunately, similar perspectives to dominate our understanding of the world, nature and our lives, causing heart ache, loss and destruction. But, heart ache and loss is difficult to measure, and growth per growth sake is our motto. A lot of good will happens when heart ache and loss are in, making visible the invisible, hopefully propelling us towards healthier directions –for us, other species, the environment, the world, and nature.

Cubans loss their historic leader and we may or may not understand the value of leadership as we are used to live without it.

Leadership used to be a positive thing, even a must, but lately whenever leaders emerge our masters move fast to suppress them, ending their lives or vanishing them, leadership not being allowed any longer in the political scene. Such are the forces behind our economies, they are powerful, relentless, and mean, and even though deep inside we all know we follow a crazy model we follow it anyway, and keep moving forward, taking our world with us.

We move fast surrounded by a hurricane of uninspiring actions and inactions, while inspiring visions are deemed without value, and worthwhile projects are turned into dust -by reason or by force; we are left alone to live lives in poverty or overconsumption.

No balance, we consume everything in sight when feasible, food, fuel, clothes, goods and services, and irreplaceable amounts of energy.

Consuming may fail to make us happy and we have little to show for our way of life, except a lot of waste. We can blame the powers that are as they truly are domineering, mean, criminal but we still choose to live the way we live. At times we can even think that others envy us and can be almost sure that those complaining would live exactly as we live having a chance. In a way we consider ourselves “lucky” and when awareness bothers us we turn to false solutions, like if recycling could deal with the amount of damage our consumption causes. It is our way to deflate guilt knowing as we know that after us there will be little left to others.

I like that Cubans seem to know why they live lives different from ours; and if at times they are tempted by stuff or tired of facing challenges to ensure survival, they are still generally happy living as they live. They have created a society rich in social relationships where nobody feels left out or afraid others would envy them, as they all have pretty much the same. After every challenge, I believe, Cubans return to the rhythm of their lives, which reflects their economy and struggles but it is also more than that.

Beyond their pain and loss, Cubans faced in 2016-2017 additional challenges, some old, some new. Among the old, we have of course the blockade, imposed by the US, Cuba’s main barrier to development. The blockade is still very much in place despite talks with the Obama administration and the focus today for Cubans is to move beyond that conversation in the face of a new administration.

The cost of the blockade for Cuba has been estimated in 125,873 million dollars –only Cuba could have survived such hit. Then, among new challenges, we find the world economic recession and its effects on Cuban economic partners; which, in order of importance are: Venezuela (down in a 9.7% in 2016 and probably in a 4.7% this year), China (decreased 6.5%), Spain (decreased between 2-3%), Canada (increased GDP 1-2%) and Brazil (decreased 3.5% in 2016 but expected to grow 0.2% this year). Then, it was hurricane season and hurricane Mathew hit Cuba in October 2016; it affected Guantanamo severely, causing the destruction of about 38,000 dwellings and serious damages to the infrastructure of roads, communication and energy (electricity mainly).

The mentioned challenges have an effect on Cuban exports of goods and services, which decreased in a 30% during this period, with a fall in the prices of exported goods and services as well as reduced volumes exported. This situation particularly applied to a group of goods including nickel and sugar and to services offered, in particular, to the supply of qualified labor force to countries such as Venezuela and Brazil.

  • Nickel’s price, for example, had increased a 10% for this period (to 10,679 USD per MT) but is still well below the price for 2013-2015 (14,596 USD per MT). Production volume is below expectations (actually 56,000 MT) due to problems with one of their production plants.
  • Sugar also faced increases in price (18.20 cents per pound) that went beyond sugar prices in 2015 (12.98 cents per pound). However, Cuban sugar production this year was only 80% of expected levels; this was mainly due to climatic challenges (excessive rain followed by drought) affecting the entire country. Thus the levels of 2015 (1,924,000 MT) were not reached in 2016, with 1,500,000 MT of sugar produced.

A different challenge affected oil-derivate products; in this case the levels of exportation actually increased (to 558 million MT) but the products were sold for a value of 228 million USD.  Here the challenge was not actual volume of export but the value of the good in the market. For example, in 2015 similar amounts of products (532 million MT) were sold for almost three-times the value of the period (734 million USD).  Thus, the price in the market affected the total value which decreased in a 68.9% for similar volumes.

Tourism was a positive sector overall; that is, there was an increase in the number of visitors to the island (13% increase) which reached the record of more than 4 million visitors, and a reported increase in the value of the services of 15%, or approximately 3 million USD. Tourism was the sector that worked best in terms of both market value and volume, which had a positive impact in the economy in 2016.

Export of services overall includes tourism and export of qualified labor force, so together the sector suffered a decreased relative to 2015 (1,170 million USD). The decrease due to the contraction of export of qualified labor force to Venezuela, in connection to challenges the Venezuelan economy is still facing. Further decreases are expected in this sector in the future because it is now facing decreases due to changes in the government of Brazil (now under Mr. Temer) –Brazil faces now both, economic challenges and unfavorable governmental views in Brazil on the import of qualified Cuban labor force.

Looking at imports there has been a decrease of a 10% in 2015 and while an increase of 7% in imports was planned for 2016 this actually did not take place, there was an additional decrease of between 3-9% in this area. The decrease was mainly in fuel imports; food imports where maintained because market food prices went down and allowed Cuba to comply with food imports need.

  • Food imports benefited from falling prices allowing Cuba to import food products not produced in the country for a total 14% lower than expected.
  • Fuel imports although lower in prices were also affected for a decreased ability of delivery by PDVSA –connected to mentioned challenges to the Venezuelan economy. Cuba managed, however, to lower consumption of fuel in a 4.4% (369,530 MT) and to reduce electricity production in a 6%.

National oil production:

The production of oil in Cuba continued to decrease, mainly due to a reduction in the number of active oil wells. Cuba has signed agreements with a Russian company (Rosneft) to focus on well recovery and to increase levels of production in the oil fields of Varadero.

National External Debt:

Cuba paid 5,299 million USD in 2016 on external debt as planned. Payment of debt obligations is crucial to Cuba because of its focus on increased access to new credit lines and better conditions of credit.  Cuba also wants to facilitate, and increase when possible, Direct Foreign Investment (DFI); this has shown a modest increase in 2016; 83 new deals were signed -14 of which are repeated investments and 15 are investments specific to the area of Mariel while the rest are investments throughout the country.

The total amount of these investments is 1,300 million USD -which comes to about 488 million USD each year (or per 12 months period). Cuban need for this type of investment has been established in between 2,000-2,500 million USD allowing much room for improvement. The International Fair of Havana presented a portfolio including 395 investment projects (120 of them totally new) for an estimated value of 9,500 million USD, with a focus on foreign investment. Remittances from outside have increased and they are estimated to be between 2,000-2,500 million USD for 2016.

Plans for the future: 2017

The goal for 2017 is to focus on economic growth while favoring the following strategies: (1) guaranteeing Cuban exports while ensuring payment within the year, (2) intensifying national production, (3) substituting imports with Cuban products, and (4) reducing expenses.

Cuban expectations by sector are as follows: hotels and restaurants are expected to grow 8%, the aggregate value of the sugar industry is expected to grow as sugar production grows a 12%, an increase of 2-5% is expected in aggregate value in agriculture, industry, transport, communications, generation of electricity, gas and water, construction and commerce.  A 3.3% increase is expected in retail trade and 2.7% growth is expected in other activities. Salaries are to increase 3.5% while productivity is expected to grow 6.6%.

Cuban government strategy to offset economic slowdown is to increase government investment; According to Rodriguez an increase of 49% in government funds in support of investment and of 26% in efforts to substituting imports is part of the plan. Government investment implies an increase in fiscal deficit (from 7% in 2016 to close to 12% of GDP in 2017); such deficit will be financed with emission of public bonds.

Facilitating foreign investment in Cuba has been a challenge mainly because of the US blockade and high risk assessment of Cuba by credit rating agencies – such as the Big Three controlling 95% of the credit rating markets –Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s, both American, controlling 80% of the credit rating market and Fitch, with offices in NYC and London, controlling the other 15%.

Foreign investors also express issues with Cuban Law of Foreign Investment (2014) in that there are possibilities of expropriation. They also disagree with having to contract all their labor force (as by Law) through public employment agencies. The process of approval of projects is also slow and it has had a negative impact in the capture of foreign investment; Raul Castro has openly expressed unhappiness regarding the excessive delays in the process of negotiations and promised to change this.

An increase in exports is discussed and includes new exports of high aggregate value such as additional products from sugar, steel of special quality in connection with their nickel and cobalt production, processed food products, quality clothes and shoes, as well as on creative industries, competitive in Cuba, and including art and art related products. An increased focus in further developing tourism with options beyond hotels –like medical and nature tourism, and including the promotion of tourist attractions such as entertainment parks, marinas, golf, theatre, dance and nocturnal centers.

Notes: 

José Luis Rodríguez (Cubadebate), La Economía cubana 2016-2017: Valoración Preliminar (I, II, III).

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Historical Comparisons, Understanding Donald Trump

February 17th, 2017 by Dr. Binoy Kampmark

History may not be as useless as art, but it certainly performs a function that is almost without utility. George Santayana may well have crowed about the warnings of repeating historical mistakes if not learnt – the errant pupil ill-read would simply re-invent the same wheel of folly – but the point was not entirely accurate.

What tends to happen is that history is abused, rather than ignored, to serve current purposes. The Holocaust is used as a cudgel against Palestinian self-determination and Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The Munich Analogy is somehow used to suggest that not standing up to an authoritarian figure will, eventually, lead to legitimised land snatching, property theft and butcheries.

Which brings us, rather appropriately, to the meaningless chitchat that has been preoccupying the terrified and the discombobulated in this supposed age of chilling darkness. A central book club theme: is Donald J. Trump a turmeric variant of Adolf Hitler, the US version in search of a Reichstag fire? Discuss.

This somewhat nauseating, if meaningless comparison, has kept circles of commentary busy, when the far better question to ask is how an existing system (let us call it the US Republican model) can withstand a nepotistic, wealthy individual who has essentially never done work outside his family.

With the Trump train gaining momentum last year, comparisons with Hitler started filling the scrap book compendium. Sebastian Schutte was resigned to suggest that Godwin’s Law “tells us that any sufficiently long discussion will produce a Hitler analogy”.

Schutte did recommend a close look at what Trump will do with, for instance, efforts to consolidate power, be it through media co-optation (Gleichschaltung); professional and fanatical scapegoating culminating in an imagined yet gripping global conspiracy (the Jüdisch-Bolschewistische Weltverschwörung); the use of paramilitary organisations (the Sturmabteilung); and that old favourite, the enacting of emergency laws.[1]

A few of those points suggest that need for an inventive mind in pushing Trump into a Hitler orbit. There are too many structural handicaps on organisation, vision, and application. Democracy, or, in the US case, a Republic, is an untidy affair with inbuilt, sacralised impediments.

None of these prevented the regime of unwarranted surveillance or the use of extra-legal measures on torture or rendition (think Bush, and then elements of the Obama administration) which flowered in the aftermath of September 11, 2001, but their presence suggests that Trump will be left frustrated in certain areas of policy.

A person whose brains have been picked over on the subject is Sir Richard Evans, who has ridden the back of Hitlermania for decades. The diet for the Austrian’s record seems undimmed in the corridors of Cambridge, where students remain enchanted and forced, in equal measure, to study the rise, rule and fall of industrialised fanaticism, varnished with more than a good share of providential mysticism.

Evans does the merry jig about those comparisons, and as any historian has to be careful to treat history as it is: a letter of the past existing in another country rather than a fully comprehensible living document of the present. Signs of mimicry can be deceptive. This leads to necessary exercises of qualification: Germany in the ailing days of the Weimar Republic was not the United States in 2016. (A far better parallel would be the populist movement of the 1890s.)

That said, Evans claims to seeing “echoes” which are alarming. Take the “stigmatization of minorities”. The point strikes Evans as notable because at no point were Jews mentioned in the context of Holocaust Remembrance Day. The omission ignored the “special quality” of the genocide against the Jews, who were deemed a supreme threat to the German polity.

Other minority groups, while eliminated as nuisances, were not seen as direct existential monsters in need of slaying. Similarly, for Evans, Trump has targeted “extremist jihadis” in the same way. “They are an existential threat to America. They will defeat, dominate, and destroy America.”[2]

Assaults on the judiciary and the very idea of a credible factual record are also deemed to have Hitlerian overtones. Hitler’s propaganda chief, Joseph Goebbles, was a great believer in inventing the news, though he also believed propaganda should be rationed.

Hitler also succeeded, in large part, because established authorities, after initial opposition, were either taken over, banned or abolished. The Reichstag fire claim was essentially rubbished by judicial fiat, a point that encouraged Hitler to “set up a parallel system of justice, the so-called special courts and the people’s courts.” The Reichstag Fire Decree of 1933 paved the way for a total police state.

Trump is cantankerous about the courts; he is indifferent to the separation of powers, if not oblivious to it. The art of the deal hardly makes for philosophically fine politics. But he lacks one fundamental aspect Hitler tended to breathe and feast upon: ideology. Occasional outbursts of misanthropy do not qualify for a political programme, and primitive notions of the infidel are only set pieces of hideous populist entertainment.

What matters is whether that entertainment is digestible for the US populace. There is Trump, shocking an entire system, and providing one of its finer tests. There will be little need for the smoky conspiracy of a Reichstag fire in all of this.

Dr. Binoy Kampmark was a Commonwealth Scholar at Selwyn College, Cambridge. He lectures at RMIT University, Melbourne. Email: [email protected]

Notes

[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/11/22/trumphitler-comparisons-are-overstated-but-here-are-4-warning-signs/?utm_term=.b9a31dc7a162
[2] http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/interrogation/2017/02/historian_richard_evans_says_trump_s_america_isn_t_exactly_like_the_third.html

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Cancer as Demonology and Defeat

February 17th, 2017 by Dr. Binoy Kampmark

“No one needs to be told what their attitude to illness should be – least of all by advertising agencies.”— Margaret McCartney, BMJ, Aug 15, 2014

Penning words today as the sweet smells of rain come through the worn mosquito netting, a crisp waft to break a cursed humidity in a north Queensland town. The Great Bower Bird finds himself outside with a bossy squawk; the dull yet beautiful brown honey eater makes a dash for the torn banana on the bird feeder. And there is cancer in the air, a plumed serpent, slithering. Who will you bite next?

There is nothing quite like that most sinister and remarkable of creations. It is supreme in its killing capacity; it rents and empties gradually or immediately. Prisoners are only held captive for the duration needed to inflict the desirable damage. Humans have managed to come up with a term that sounds, in itself, less than triumphant: remission.

Cancer is a mighty force of nature, an architecture that springs around the body with seemingly committed enthusiasm. Like a distraught and eager lover, it moves in on your mind, cloaking and stifling the body. It occupies your being with battalions, annexes your soul with the might of an entire occupation force. It steals life from you through stealthy nips, meaty snaps and, at times, enormous bites. It encourages paralysis of will, entropy, the evacuation of living sentiment. Cancer be you, hybrid remarkable beast, execution mercilessly effective.

The remarkably varied and sophisticated disease has spawned what can only be described as an industrial complex in search of miracles. There are the worker ants who scurry to homes to cart away victims to oncology wards; there are the researchers who mine the mysteries of cellular structures in the hope that a Holy Grail replete with salvation will be found. Deep in the psyche of the medical soul is a faith-mad creature waiting to come out.

The metaphor of war resounds in this trillion dollar quest, and it is hard not being swayed by it. Fight, or be doomed; take up arms or relinquish your credentials as a suitable member of Homo sapiens. The disease is either coming for you with dedication or has struck a person dear to you. Insatiable, the battle ensues that torment the living, and the long run dead.

The sense that a person afflicted becomes not so much a patient but an insurgent in need of resistance suggests the magic, and the deception, of that metaphor. Morality begins to lurk in the background, and with that, a sense of judgment about disease and patient. Mobilise, goes the call, or perish. Even friends and family members diminish before your shallow judgment: Do not collaborate with the disease!

“Metaphors,” note several authors in a study “Cancer as Metaphor” for The Oncologist (Nov 2004), “illuminate complex issues and can paint a thousand words.” The laboured clichés still permit the authors to observe how the “imperative for patients to have a fighting spirit” should be balanced “with words of healing and acceptance”.[1]

In 2014, Margaret McCartney, a general practitioner from Glasgow, would go so far as to claim that military metaphors might actually harm, less than cure, patients.[2] (So much for the weak notion that words cannot hurt me – they gnaw and deprive, reprove and condemn.)

Everywhere, bodies dedicated to battling cancer have insisted, as Cancer Research UK did, that people “show us your fight face”. The language of the CRUK was positively, and aggressively, militaristic. Cancer was to be beaten; a “war chest” would fund the campaign; cancer was the target – “Cancer! We’re coming to get you!”

Like war and judgment, none of that is particularly new. Susan Sontag, in 1978, was already lashing out against the victim-blaming culture of the disease eradicators. In Illness as Metaphor, she saw links between attitudes to cancer and tuberculosis. “With the modern diseases (once TB, now cancer), the romantic idea that the disease expresses the character is invariably extended to assert that the character causes the disease – because it has not expressed itself.”

The language suggests, loudly, that we must all muck in for the battle, and no shirkers will be allowed in the frontline. Tenacity will be rewarded; there are medals and iron crosses to be provided for the brave and those willing to add to the quest.

For John Diamond, writing in 1999, this was the true hallmark of a cruel and garbled delusion, that “only those who fight hard against their cancer survive it or deserve to survive it – the corollary being that those who lose the fight deserve to do so.”

The disease remains abstract, a bookish medical term clothed in distant terminology, till your father needs help off the toilet, assistance up the stairs, his clammy body soaked in desperation, writhing in pain, his joints aflame, and speaking about West German President Richard von Weizäcker’s controversial remarks about Germany’s defeat in the Second World war in his May 1985 address. To paraphrase, “We lost the war, and were liberated.” To be defeated, yet be free.

Controversial indeed for those who felt that foreign forces could hardly have emancipated citizens of the Third Reich, but not as controversial as the disease itself, this most remarkable of deft killers that provides its own ministry of liberation – of a very different sort. For cancer, and its innumerable sufferers, cannot be moralised.

Dr. Binoy Kampmark was a Commonwealth Scholar at Selwyn College, Cambridge. He lectures at RMIT University, Melbourne. Email: [email protected]

Notes

[1] http://theoncologist.alphamedpress.org/content/9/6/708.short

[2] http://www.bmj.com/content/349/bmj.g5155

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Nuclear Power Is Not “Green Energy”

February 17th, 2017 by Washington's Blog

Nuclear lobbyists and some scientists are under the mistaken impression that nuclear power is virtually carbon-free, and thus must be pushed to prevent runaway global warming (if you don’t believe in global warming, please forward this to your friends, family and colleagues who do so).

But this is a complete and total myth …

Former Commissioner for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Peter Bradford explains that building nuclear plants to fight global warming is like trying to fight global hunger by serving everyone caviar.

Dr. Mark Jacobson – the head of Stanford University’s Atmosphere and Energy Program, who has written numerous books and hundreds of scientific papers on climate and energy, and testified before Congress numerous times on those issues – notes that nuclear puts out much more pollution (including much more CO2) than windpower, and 1.5% of all the nuclear plants built have melted down.  Jacobson also points out that it takes at least 11 years to permit and build a nuclear plant, whereas it takes less than half that time to fire up a wind or solar farm. Between the application for a nuclear plant and flipping the switch, power is provided by conventional energy sources … 55-65% of which is coal.

Keith Barnham – Emeritus Professor at the Faculty of Natural Sciences, Imperial College London – notes that claims that nuclear power is a ‘low carbon’ energy source fall apart under scrutiny.

Mark Diesendorf – Associate Professor and Deputy Director, Institute of Environmental Studies, UNSW – writes:

Unfortunately, the notion that nuclear energy is a low-emission technology doesn’t really stack up when the whole nuclear fuel life cycle is considered. In reality, the only CO2-free link in the chain is the reactor’s operation. All of the other steps – mining, milling, fuel fabrication, enrichment, reactor construction, decommissioning and waste management – use fossil fuels and hence emit carbon dioxide.

Amory Lovins is perhaps America’s top expert on energy, and a dedicated environmentalist for close to 50 years.  His credentials as an energy expert and environmentalist are sterling.  Lovins is a former Oxford don, who taught at nine universities, most recently Stanford.  He has briefed 19 heads of state, provided expert testimony in eight countries, and published 31 books and several hundred papers.  Lovins’ clients have included the Pentagon,  OECD, United Nations, Resources for the Future, many national governments, and 13 US states, as well as many Fortune 500 companies, major real-estate developers, and utilities.  Lovins served in 1980-81 on the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Research Advisory Board, and in 1999-2001 and 2006-2008 on Defense Science Board task forces on military energy efficiency and strategy.

Lovins says nuclear is not the answer:

Nuclear plants are so slow and costly to build that they reduce and retard  climate protection.

Here’s how. Each dollar spent on a new reactor buys about 2-10 times less carbon savings, 20-40 times slower, than spending that dollar on the cheaper, faster, safer solutions that make nuclear power unnecessary and uneconomic: efficient use of electricity, making heat and power together in factories or buildings (“cogeneration”), and renewable energy. The last two made 18% of the world’s 2009 electricity, nuclear 13%, reversing their 2000 shares–and made over 90% of the world’s additional electricity in 2008.

Those smarter choices are sweeping the global energy market. Half the world’s new generating capacity in 2008 and 2009 was renewable. In 2010, renewables except big hydro dams won $151 billion of private investment and added over 50 billion watts (70% the total capacity of all 23 Fukushima-style U.S. reactors) while nuclear got zero private investment and kept losing capacity. Supposedly unreliable windpower made 43-52% of four German states’ total 2010 electricity. Non-nuclear Denmark, 21% wind-powered, plans to get entirely off fossil fuels. Hawai’i plans 70% renewables by 2025.

In contrast, of the 66 nuclear units worldwide officially listed as “under construction” at the end of 2010, 12 had been so listed for over 20 years, 45 had no official startup date, half were late, all 66 were in centrally planned power systems–50 of those in just four (China, India, Russia, South Korea)–and zero were free-market purchases. Since 2007, nuclear growth has added less annual output than just the costliest renewable–solar power –and will probably never catch up. While inherently safe renewable competitors are walloping both nuclear and coal plants in the marketplace and keep getting dramatically cheaper, nuclear costs keep soaring, and with greater safety precautions would go even higher. Tokyo Electric Co., just recovering from $10-20 billion in 2007 earthquake costs at its other big nuclear complex, now faces an even more ruinous Fukushima bill.

Since 2005, new U.S. reactors (if any) have been 100+% subsidized–yet they couldn’t raise a cent of private capital, because they have no business case. They cost 2-3 times as much as new windpower, and by the time you could build a reactor, it couldn’t even beat solar power. Competitive renewables, cogeneration, and efficient use can displace all U.S. coal power more than 23 times over–leaving ample room to replace nuclear power’s half-as-big-as-coal contribution too–but we need to do it just once.

(Read Lovins’ technical papers on the issue here.)

Nuclear engineer and former nuclear industry executive Arnie Gundersen noted last year:

Does the nuclear industry’s latest claim that it is the world’s salvation from increasing levels of CO2 hold up under scrutiny? No! The evidence clearly shows that building new nukes will make global warming worse.

***

Nuclear power lobbyists and their marketing firms want us to believe that humankind’s current CO2 atmospheric releases would have been much worse were it not for those 438 nukes now operating. How much worse? The World Nuclear Association industry trade group estimates that an additional 1.1 GT of CO2 would have been created in 2015 if natural gas plants supplied the electricity instead of those 438 nukes[17].

Do the math! 1.1 additional GT out of 36 GT emitted is only a 3% difference. This 3% value is not a typographical error. Worldwide, all those nukes made only a 3% dent in yearly CO2 production. Put another way, each of the 438 individual nuclear plants contribute less than seven thousandths of one percent to CO2 reduction[18]. That’s hardly enough to justify claims that keeping your old local nuke running is necessary to prevent the sea from rising.

Let’s fast forward to 2050. Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) estimates that even if the 2015 Paris CO2 accords (COP 21) are implemented and 1,000 new nukes are constructed, global CO2 emissions will still increase to a minimum of 64 GT[19]. While this increase appears counterintuitive given the Paris agreement, it is on target because pent up energy demands from large populations in India, China, Southeast Asia, and Africa who want to achieve the standard of living in western developed countries.[20]

Can new nukes really help cut CO2 by 2050? Unfortunately, what is past is prologue. To do so, the World Nuclear Association claims 1,000 new nukes will be needed by 2050 to combat CO2 buildup and climate change[21]. The MIT estimate also assumes 1,000 nukes must be in operation by 2050. Using the nuclear trade association’s own calculations shows that these new nukes will offset only 3.9 GT of CO2 in 2050. Do the math again! 3.9 GT out of 64 GT is only 6.1% of the total CO2 released to the atmosphere in 2050, hardly enough for the salvation of the polar bears!

If those 1,000 nuclear power plants were cheap and could be built quickly, investing in nukes might still make sense. However, Lazard Financial Advisory and Asset Management[22], with no dog in the fight, has developed a rubric that estimates that the construction cost of those new nukes will be $8,200,000,000,000. Yes, that’s $8.2 TRILLION to reduce CO2 by only 6%![23]

Surely that huge amount of money can be better spent on less expensive alternatives to get more bang for the buck! Lazard also estimates that solar or wind would be 80% less expensive[24] for the equivalent amount of peak electric output.

Atmospheric CO2 releases are not going to go on vacation while waiting for those 1,000 nukes to be built. According to the World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016[25], the mean [average] construction time for 46 nuclear plants that began operation between 2006 and 2016 was 10.4 years, not including engineering, licensing and site selection. Contrast that with a two year design and construction schedule for a typical industrial scale solar power plant.[26],[27] Atmospheric CO2 levels will increase by almost 70 PPM during the 35 years it will take to construct those 1,000 new nukes, an increase that these new nuclear plants will never eliminate – if they ever operate.

***

Global climate change is a now problem that requires now solutions[28]. Governments will make the CO2 problem worse by allocating precious resources for alleged atomic power solutions to reduce CO2 when the cost of such proposals is unknown and when implementation only begins in 2030. Fortunately, lower cost renewable solutions are readily available and can be implemented on the necessary time scale needed to reverse the rapidly increasing atmospheric CO2.

Building new nukes applies a 20th century technology to a 21st century problem. Moreover, building nuclear reactors in a tradeoff for CO2 reduction creates a toxic legacy of atomic waste throughout the world. Proponents of nuclear power would have us believe that humankind is smart enough to store nuclear waste for a quarter of a million years, but at the same time humankind is so dumb that we can’t figure out how to store solar electricity overnight. I disagree.

Let’s not recreate the follies of the 20th century by recycling this atomic technology into the 21st century. The evidence proves that new nukes will make global climate change worse due to huge costs and delayed implementation periods. Lift the CO2 Smoke Screenand implement the alternative solutions that are available now – faster to implement and much less expensive.

Alternet points out:

Mark Cooper, senior fellow for economic analysis at the Vermont Law School … found that the states that invested heavily in nuclear power had worse track records on efficiency and developing renewables than those that did not have large nuclear programs. In other words, investing in nuclear technology crowded out developing clean energy.

BBC notes:

Building the [nuclear] power station produces a lot of CO2 ….

Greenpeace points out:

When it comes to nuclear power, the industry wants you to think of electricity generation in isolation …..  And yet the production of nuclear fuel is a hugely intensive process. Uranium must be mined, milled, converted, enriched, converted again and then manufactured into fuel. You’ll notice the [the nuclear industry] doesn’t mention the carbon footprint of all steps in the nuclear chain prior to electricity generation. Fossil fuels have to be used and that means CO2 emissions.

An International Forum on Globalization report – written by environmental luminaries Ernest Callenback, Gar Smith and Jerry Mander – have slammed nuclear power as catastrophic for the environment:

Nuclear energy is not the “clean” energy its backers proclaim. For more than 50 years, nuclear energy has been quietly polluting our air, land, water and bodies—while also contributing to Global Warming through the CO2 emissions from its construction, mining, and manufacturing operationsEvery aspect of the nuclear fuel cycle—mining, milling, shipping, processing, power generation, waste disposal and storage—releases greenhouse gases, radioactive particles and toxic materials that poison the air, water and land. Nuclear power plants routinely expel low-level radionuclides into the air in the course of daily operations. While exposure to high levels of radiation can kill within a matter of days or weeks, exposure to low levels on a prolonged basis can damage bones and tissue and result in genetic damage, crippling long-term injuries, disease and death.

See this excellent photographic depiction of the huge amounts of fossil fuel which goes into building and operating a nuclear power plant.

Nature reported in 2008:

You’re better off pursuing renewables like wind and solar if you want to get more bang for your buck.”

***

Evaluating the total carbon output of the nuclear industry involves calculating those emissions and dividing them by the electricity produced over the entire lifetime of the plant. Benjamin K. Sovacool, a research fellow at the National University of Singapore, recently analyzed more than one hundred lifecycle studies of nuclear plants around the world, his results published in August in Energy Policy. From the 19 most reliable assessments, Sovacool found that estimates of total lifecycle carbon emissions ranged from 1.4 grammes of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour (gCO2e/kWh) of electricity produced up to 288 gCO2e/kWh. Sovacool believes the mean of 66 gCO2e/kWh to be a reasonable approximation.

The large variation in emissions estimated from the collection of studies arises from the different methodologies used – those on the low end, says Sovacool, tended to leave parts of the lifecycle out of their analyses, while those on the high end often made unrealistic assumptions about the amount of energy used in some parts of the lifecycle. The largest source of carbon emissions, accounting for 38 per cent of the average total, is the “frontend” of the fuel cycle, which includes mining and milling uranium ore, and the relatively energy-intensive conversion and enrichment process, which boosts the level of uranium-235 in the fuel to useable levels. Construction (12 per cent), operation (17 per cent largely because of backup generators using fossil fuels during downtime), fuel processing and waste disposal (14 per cent) and decommissioning (18 per cent) make up the total mean emissions.

According to Sovacool’s analysis, nuclear power, at 66 gCO2e/kWh emissions is well below scrubbed coal-fired plants, which emit 960 gCO2e/kWh, and natural gas-fired plants, at 443 gCO2e/kWh. However, nuclear emits twice as much carbon as solar photovoltaic, at 32 gCO2e/kWh, and six times as much as onshore wind farms, at 10 gCO2e/kWh. “A number in the 60s puts it well below natural gas, oil, coal and even clean-coal technologies. On the other hand, things like energy efficiency, and some of the cheaper renewables are a factor of six better. So for every dollar you spend on nuclear, you could have saved five or six times as much carbon with efficiency, or wind farms,” Sovacool says. Add to that the high costs and long lead times for building a nuclear plant about $3 billion for a 1,000 megawatt plant, with planning, licensing and construction times of about 10 years and nuclear power is even less appealing.

***

Money spent on energy efficiency, however, is equivalent to increasing baseload power, since it reduces the overall power that needs to be generated, says Sovacool. And innovative energy-storage solutions, such as compressed air storage, could provide ways for renewables to provide baseload power.

Thomas Cochran, a nuclear physicist and senior scientist at the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), an environmental group in Washington DC … argues that the expense and risk of building nuclear plants makes them uneconomic without large government subsidies, and that similar investment in wind and solar photovoltaic power would pay off sooner.

***

Another question has to do with the sustainability of the uranium supply itself. According to researchers in Australia at Monash University, Melbourne, and the University of New South Wales, Sydney, good-quality uranium ore is hard to come by. The deposits of rich ores with the highest uranium content are depleting leaving only lower-quality deposits to be exploited. As ore quality degrades, more energy is required to mine and mill it, and greenhouse gas emissions rise. “It is clear that there is a strong sensitivity of … greenhouse gas emissions to ore grade, and that ore grades are likely to continue to decline gradually in the medium- to long-term,” conclude the researchers.  [And see this.]

Beyond Nuclear notes:

The energy consulting firm Ecofys produced a report detailing how we can meet nearly 100% of global energy needs with renewable sources by 2050. Approximately half of the goal is met through increased energy efficiency to first reduce energy demands, and the other half is achieved by switching to renewable energy sources for electricity production. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change agrees and predicts close to 80% of the world’s energy supply could be met by renewables by mid‐century.

***

Since nuclear power plants are reliant upon the electrical grid for 100% of their safety systems’ long‐term power, and are shut down during grid failure and perturbations, it is “guaranteed” only as long as the electrical grid is reliable. When the Tsunami and earthquake hit and power was lost in the Fukushima Prefecture, nuclear energy wasn’t so “guaranteed.” Instead, it became a liability, adding to what was now a triple threat to the region and worsening an already catastrophic situation.

***

[The claim that] Nuclear power is “low‐carbon electricity” … is the propaganda line commonly used by the nuclear industry which conveniently leaves out every phase of the nuclear fuel chain other than electricity generation. It ignores the significant carbon emissions caused by uranium mining, milling, processing and enrichment; the transport of fuel; the construction of nuclear plants; and the still inadequate permanent management of waste. It also ignores the release ‐ by nuclear power plants and reprocessing facilities ‐ of radioactive carbon dioxide, or carbon‐14, to the air, considered to be the most toxic of all radioactive isotopes over the long‐term.

In fact, studies show that extending the operating licenses of old nuclear power plants emits orders of magnitude more carbon and greenhouse gases per kilowatt hour from just the uranium fuel chain compared to building and operating new wind farms.

***

Nuclear might begin to address global carbon emissions if a reactor is built somewhere in the world every two weeks. But this is an economically unrealistic, in fact impossible, proposition, with the estimated construction tab beginning at $12 billion apiece and current new reactors under construction already falling years behind schedule.

According to a 2003 MIT study, “The Future of Nuclear Power,” such an unprecedented industrial ramping up would also mean opening a new Yucca Mountain‐size nuclear waste dump somewhere in the world “every three to four years,” a task still unaccomplished even once in the 70 years of the industry’s existence. Further, such a massive scale expansion of nuclear energy would fuel proliferation risks and multiply anxieties about nuclear weapons development, exemplified by the current concern over Iran. As Al Gore stated while Vice President: “For eight years in the White House, every weapons-proliferation problem we dealt with was connected to a civilian reactor program.”

Many experts also say that the “energy return on investment” from nuclear power is lower than many other forms of energy. In other words, non-nuclear energy sources produce more energy for a given input.

David Swanson summarizes one of the key findings of the International Forum on Globalization report:

The energy put into mining, processing, and shipping uranium, plant construction, operation, and decommissioning is roughly equal to the energy a nuclear plant can produce in its lifetime. In other words, nuclear energy does not add any net energy.

Not counted in that calculation is the energy needed to store nuclear waste for hundreds of thousands of years.

Also not counted is any mitigation of the relatively routine damage done to the environment, including human health, at each stage of the process.

***

Nuclear energy is not an alternative to energies that increase global warming, because nuclear increases global warming. When high-grade uranium runs out, nuclear will be worse for CO2 emissions than burning fossil fuels. And as global warming advances, nuclear becomes even less efficient as reactors must shut down to avoid overheating.

Also not counted in most discussions is the fact that nuclear reactors discharge tremendous amounts of heat directly into the environment.  After all – as any nuclear engineer will tell you – a nuclear reactor is really just a fancy way to boil water.

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists noted in 1971:

In terms of thermal efficiency, current nuclear reactors are even worse off than the coal plants.  Against the 50 per cent loss of heat in the newest coal plants, as much as 70 per cent of the heat is lost from nuclear plants.  This means that thermal pollution can be even more severe ….

1971 was a long time ago, but some nuclear plants are older.  For example, Oyster Creek was launched in 1969, and many other reactors were built in the early 1970s.   Most American nuclear reactors are old (and they are aging very poorly).

Indeed, the Nuclear Information and Resource Service claims:

It has been estimated that every nuclear reactor daily releases thermal energy –heat– that is in excess of the heat released by the detonation of a 15 kiloton nuclear bomb blast.

It doesn’t make too much sense to dump massive amounts of heat into the environment … in the name of fighting global warming.

The bottom line – as discussed above – is that scientists pushing nuclear to combat global warming are misinformed.  (True, nuclear industry lobbyists may be largely responsible for the claim that nuclear fights climate change. Indeed, Dick Cheney – whose Halliburton company builds nuclear power plants, and which sold nuclear secrets to Iran – falsely claimed that nuclear power is carbon-free in a 2004 appearance on C-Span. But there are also sincere environmental scientists who are pushing nuclear because they have only studied a small part of the picture, and don’t understand that there are better alternatives.)

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Tanzania Demands Reparations for German Colonial Atrocities

February 17th, 2017 by Abayomi Azikiwe

Germany’s colonial role in Africa has been highlighted again as the Tanzania government placed the European state on notice that it will file an official complaint over the atrocities committed during the early 20th century.

This report comes in the aftermath of a similar effort by representatives of the Herero and Nama peoples of the Republic of Namibia, formerly known as South-West Africa under imperialism. Approximately 80 percent of the population of these two groups died as a result of a German extermination order issued by General Lothar von Trotha during the anti-colonial revolt of 1904-1907.

In the East African state of Tanzania, the government informed the National Assembly on February 9 that it would pursue an apology along with monetary damages for the crimes carried out in the years of 1905-1907 when an uprising occurred in the southern region of the country. Dr. Hussein Mwinyi, who serves as Minister for Defense and National Service, informed the Parliament of its intentions to work with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to develop the proper approach to the issues involved.

The Maji Maji War (1905-1907)

Colonial authorities under the direction of Karl Peters, the founder of the German East Africa Company, imposed a draconian system of land theft, forced labor, economic exploitation and unjust taxation. Africans were forced from their traditional societies in order to make way for the European military and administrative apparatus.

Africans were mandated to leave their villages to produce wealth for export to other European nations. The levying of a tax on the people was designed to compel men to work for the colonial firms in the sectors of agricultural commodities, mining and railway construction.

Resentment quickly grew and an uprising erupted in July 1905. It was led by Kinjikitile Ngwale, also known as Bokero. The first wave of Africans attacked German garrisons as well as cotton fields from the Matumbi Hills utilizing traditional weapons and a formula composed of water, castor oil and millet.

Bokero believed that the formula spread over the bodies of the warriors would protect them from the high-powered German weaponry. The uprising was not just limited to the Matumbi and in a matter of weeks other ethnic groups including the Mbunga, Kichi, Ngoni, Ngindo and Pogoro joined in the campaign to eliminate European rule. This anti-colonial movement represented a significant development in that it transcended sectional divisions embarking upon a Pan-African approach to the national liberation struggles that would reach fruition decades later in the mid-to-late 20th century.

According to an entry published by the Black Past website: “The apex of the rebellion came at Mahenge in August 1905 where several thousand Maji Maji warriors attacked but failed to overrun a German stronghold. On October 21, 1905 the Germans retaliated with an attack on the camp of the unsuspecting Ngoni people who had recently joined the rebellion. The Germans killed hundreds of men, women, and children. This attack marked the beginning of a brutal counteroffensive that left an estimated 75,000 Maji Maji warriors dead by 1907. The Germans also adopted famine as a weapon, purposely destroying the crops of suspected Maji Maji supporters.” (blackpast.com)

Bokero, the spirit medium whose propaganda inspired the war, was captured and executed for treason on August 4, 1905. Nonetheless, the struggle continued for another two years under the renewed and expanded leadership.

Superior military weapons and reinforcements by the German government crushed the uprising by August 1907. Not satisfied with this military defeat of the Africans, the colonial authorities deliberating withheld food from the people leading to widespread deaths from starvation, thirst and disease.

German Colonialism in Africa

With the failure of German imperial ambitions at the conclusion of World War I, the role of this European nation in the rise of colonialism on the continent became obscured. Other imperialist states such as Britain, France, Portugal, Belgium, Spain, the United States and Italy would continue their economic plunder of Africa past the conclusion of the War in 1918 earning enormous wealth for the multi-national corporations and international finance capital.

However, it was in Germany under Chancellor Otto von Bismarck that the gathering known as the Berlin West Africa Conference was held from November 15, 1884 to February 26, 1885. The aim of the meeting, called for by Portugal, was to bring together the leading European colonial powers and the U.S. to divide the continent in order to facilitate greater cooperation and consequent profit-making for the imperialists.

An article by Elizabeth Heath published in Oxford Reference notes: “Rivalry between Great Britain and France led Bismarck to intervene, and in late 1884 he called a meeting of European powers in Berlin. In the subsequent meetings, Great Britain, France, Germany, Portugal, and King Leopold II (Belgium) negotiated their claims to African territory, which were then formalized and mapped. During the conference the leaders also agreed to allow free trade among the colonies and established a framework for negotiating future European claims in Africa. Neither the Berlin Conference itself nor the framework for future negotiations provided any say for the peoples of Africa over the partitioning of their homelands.”

Resulting from the imperialist consultations was the German Act of the Berlin Conference. The document sought to guide the Europeans away from conflict in order to guarantee a workable process of super-exploitation of African resources and labor.

Germany was awarded colonial territories not only in East Africa which encompassed modern-day Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania but also Togo and Cameroon in West Africa and Namibia in the sub-continent. Additional settlements in Guinea and the area around Ondo state in Nigeria were attempted without success. Other locations within contemporary Chad, Gabon, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, the Central African Republic and the Republic of the Congo were also under the control of German imperialism during various periods between the late 19th and early 20th centuries.

The collapse of the German imperial state in the years of 1915-1918 prompted the invasion and occupation of their colonies by the military units of the so-called Allied Powers during World War I. By 1919 these territories had been wrested from German colonial domination at the aegis of the League of Nations and soon parceled over to Belgium, France, Portugal, South Africa and Britain.

Reparations Needed to Renew African Development and Unity

African Union (AU) member states are more than justified in demanding official apologies and compensation for the enormous damage done by imperialism in the 19th and 20th centuries. In fact it was the Atlantic Slave Trade beginning in the 1400s and extending into the 1800s that created the conditions for the rise of colonialism in Africa.

Even today the economic dependency of independent states is rooted in the colonial period of relations with Europe. Although African nations won formal national independence over a period of decades between the 1950s and the 1990s, with the exception of the Western Sahara still under Moroccan occupation inherited from Spain four decades ago, these post-colonial governments are limited by the develop model based upon supplying raw materials, agricultural crops and cheap labor to the industrialized countries.

Consequently, the debt owed to the capitalist financial institutions including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank remains an impediment to both national reconstruction and continental unification. If the African continent speaks with one voice on this question it will serve as a mechanism for acquiring the necessary resources to break with the imperialist system of resource extraction and labor brokerage.

Africa must build its own internal industries and economic system which serves the interests of the majority of workers, farmers and youth. The enormous wealth of the continent should be harnessed for the benefit of the people.

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Only one month into his administration, and two days after the ouster of his National Security Advisor, Michael Flynn, President Donald Trump faces the growing prospect of congressional investigations into alleged ties to Moscow. Powerful sections of the American ruling class are seeking to put the US on a war footing against Russia in a campaign orchestrated by the major intelligence agencies, acting through their preferred media conduits, the New York Times and the Washington Post.

The crisis deepened on Wednesday, with the Post and Times claiming new revelations based on unnamed current and former intelligence sources, and leading Senate Republicans joining Democrats in calling for a congressional investigation into Trump’s alleged connections to Russian intelligence agencies, both prior to and after the November election.

Meanwhile, figures in and around the Democratic Party began to allude to impeachment, drawing comparisons to the Watergate scandal—the 1972 break-in at the Democratic National Committee—that led to the resignation of Richard Nixon.

Trump responded Wednesday by publicly attacking the intelligence agencies he nominally directs, declaring the leaks to the Times and Post “illegal” and “criminal” at a joint press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He made similar comments earlier in the day in a Twitter post, raising the prospect that the White House could attempt to organize a purge of the CIA, FBI, and National Security Agency (NSA).

“From intelligence, papers are being leaked, things are being leaked,” Trump said at the White House appearance with Netanyahu. “It’s a criminal action, criminal act, and it’s been going on for a long time before me, but now it’s really going on.”

The litany of unsubstantiated allegations of Russian control over Trump continued. The lead Times report Wednesday cited “four current and former American officials” in claiming “that Trump associates had repeated contacts with senior Russian intelligence officials in the year before the election,” while Wednesday’s lead Post article cited a seemingly endless list of unnamed sources, including officials “who spoke on the condition of anonymity;” “current and former US officials;” “officials inside the National Security Council;” “several… senior officials… who discussed the sensitive matter on the condition of anonymity;” as well as unnamed “Senior Obama administration officials.”

In neither the Times nor the Post is a single source named. No statement is independently corroborated. No further evidence is presented beyond the anonymous statements themselves—along with broad accusations over “Russian interference” in the US elections, which are presented as fact.

It is now well established that Flynn’s December 29 phone call with Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak—in which the incoming national security adviser reportedly indicated that sanctions targeting Russia would be reviewed by the Trump administration—was secretly recorded by the NSA.

There would be nothing illegal in such a discussion, and numerous historical precedents exist, some of them far more egregious than the claims being made about Flynn’s call—including the notorious instance of Reagan campaign officials intervening to prevent the release of US hostages in Iran until after the November 1980 election.

Instead, the intelligence agencies seized on the conversation to drive out Flynn, who advocated a temporary understanding with Russia so that the US could quickly move against Iran, and potentially China.

The NSA shared the transcript of the Flynn call with the FBI. At some point, multiple unnamed intelligence agents then shared the transcript with the media, as well as politicians and government officials. By last weekend, the transcript, which the White House refused to allow Flynn to review, was circulating widely in Washington. Flynn tendered his resignation on Monday evening. A concession from the Trump administration to the anti-Russia campaign, Flynn’s ouster only emboldened it.

The intervention of the intelligence apparatus against Trump has become so heavy-handed that on Wednesday it brought a warning from conservative writer Eli Lake, who supported Hillary Clinton in the general election.

“Normally intercepts of US officials and citizens are some of the most tightly held government secrets,” Lake wrote on Bloomberg. “This is for good reason. Selectively disclosing details of private conversations monitored by the FBI or NSA gives the permanent state the power to destroy reputations from the cloak of anonymity. This is what police states do.”

The warfare within the ruling class is being waged along a front that extends from the intelligence agencies through the Republican Party and into the Trump White House itself—as evidenced by the number of leaks coming from “current administration officials.” It is notable that Vice President Mike Pence, who would assume the presidency if Trump were to be impeached or resign, has been kept above the fray by all sides in the conflict.

Tuesday brought an ominous signal that the military brass may become involved. In a breach of democratic norms, Army Gen. Raymond Thomas, commander of US Special Operations forces—including the Navy SEALs and Army Green Berets—commented on the controversy that day.

“Our government continues to be in unbelievable turmoil,” said Thomas, in evident reference to the departure of Flynn, while speaking at a public event in Maryland. “I hope they sort it out soon because we’re a nation at war.” Later when given an opportunity to clarify his comment, Thomas instead reiterated it. “As a commander, I’m concerned our government be as stable as possible,” he said.

Two leading Republican senators, John McCain of Arizona and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, have indicated support for the formation of a special committee to investigate the alleged ties between the Trump campaign and the Russian government.

In an appearance on Good Morning America, Graham announced his support for a full investigation into the Trump administration, carried out by an extraordinary “joint select committee.”

“If it is true, it is very, very disturbing to me, and Russia needs to pay a price when it comes to interfering in our democracy and other democracies,” Graham said. “And any Trump person who was working with the Russians in an unacceptable way also needs to pay a price.”

Graham came to the political essence of the controversy when host George Stephanopoulos, quoting Thomas Friedman of the Times, asked the senator, “What is going on between Donald Trump and the Republicans?”

“Trump is an outlier when it comes to the Russians,” Graham responded. “I do not know one Republican senator who believes Russia is anything but an enemy… I can’t explain Donald Trump’s view of Russia.”

Graham’s views were echoed by Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, who told MSNBC’s Morning Joe program, “Let’s get everything out as quickly as possible on this Russia issue … maybe there’s a problem that obviously goes much deeper than what we now suspect.” Corker also questioned whether or not “the White House [is] going to have the ability to stabilize itself.”

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and House of Representatives Speaker Paul Ryan have both accepted as fact alleged Russian “interference” in the US election. They have called for investigations by the regular congressional committees, while stopping short of acceding to demands for the formation of a special investigative committee.

Democrats, meanwhile, have begun to raise the possibility of impeachment.

“This is already bigger than Watergate,” said Democratic National Committee senior adviser Zac Petkanas, in a statement. “The sanctity of our democracy demands an immediate, independent, transparent investigation into the connections between Donald Trump, his staff, and the Russian government.”

There are many problems with this fallacious comparison. But there is one fundamental difference. In 1972 Richard Nixon used illegal methods to harass and discredit political opponents, at a moment when leading sections of the Democratic Party, adapting to mass popular anger, had presented themselves as opponents of the war in Vietnam. Responding to this mood, the Washington Post and the New York Times investigated Nixon’s abuses, uncovering the Watergate scandal that lead to the resignation of Nixon, and ultimately, the end of the Vietnam War.

Forty-five years later, the Times and the Post, serving as mouthpieces of the CIA, are leading the charge against Trump from the right, not to accommodate mass popular antiwar sentiment, but for the opposite purpose, to help prepare the political conditions for war with Russia.

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