On Wednesday, a neo-fascist party helped form a regional government in Germany for the first time since the end of Nazi rule.

Despite the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) receiving just five percent of the vote in the regional election in the state of Thuringia, Thomas Kemmerich was officially appointed to the position of Thuringia’s minister president, the equivalent of a governor in the United States.

This was made possible by an alliance between the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the neo-fascist Alternative for Germany (AfD), who joined forces to prevent the Left Party from forming a government, despite the fact that the Left Party received the highest vote in the election.

The announcement marked the first time since the end of the Nazi Third Reich that an establishment party had worked with the fascists to form a government. It represents a shattering of the pledges by the major parties not to cooperate with the neo-fascists of the AfD.

This is a historic turning point. It makes clear that the ruling class is once again relying on fascist forces to implement its policies of militarism, dictatorship and austerity.

All the attempts of leading politicians to distance themselves from the events in Thuringia, and the subsequent resignation of the new state premier, cannot hide a fundamental reality: 75 years after the end of Nazi rule in Germany, the maxim of the German bourgeoisie is no longer “Never again,” but “Onward to new wars and crimes.”

This reality was made clear in an interview that Bundestag (federal parliament) President Wolfgang Schäuble conducted last weekend with the newspapers of the Funke media group and the French newspaper Ouest-France.

This interview, in which Schäuble advocated German rearmament and participation in foreign wars, appeared just one week after German officials held public commemorations of the 75th anniversary of the liberation of the Auschwitz death camp.

Asked whether Germany must again risk soldiers’ lives in war, Schäuble replied,

“We cannot leave everything to the French and Americans. The lessons of Auschwitz cannot be an argument for not becoming involved in the long term.”

The immediate issue was the preparation of combat operations in Africa and the Middle East.

“We cannot duck away. If Europe is to play a stronger role, we must do our part,” Schäuble said.

He raised the possibility of German participation in the civil war in Mali as well as “action in Libya with German soldiers.” The recent Libya conference in Berlin, in which the European powers plotted a new scramble for Africa, had been “a great success for the chancellor,” he said, and it was “undisputed that we must continue to get involved there and, in case of doubt, also take on unpleasant tasks.”

No one should have any illusions about the far-reaching significance of such statements: 75 years after the fall of the Third Reich, the German ruling class is again willing to pursue its geostrategic and economic interests through war. When asked whether Germany was “too weak” for interventions abroad, Schäuble replied, “We cannot continuously pass on the moral costs to others.”

Schäuble had previously expressed similar sentiments in his foreign policy keynote speech on “Germany’s role in the globalized world” last October. In that speech he declared that “staying out is not an option, at least not a viable foreign policy strategy.”

“We Europeans must do more for our own security—and that also means for the security of the world around us,” he said. This included “the readiness to use military force.” This “also has a moral price,” he said, adding, “And carrying this burden is a great challenge, especially for the Germans.”

The last time Germany carried the “burden” of aggressive great power politics and enforced its interests with military might the most terrible crimes in the history of mankind followed. In the Second World War, unleashed by Nazi Germany, the “moral price” was six million murdered Jews, 27 million victims of the war of extermination against the Soviet Union and several tens of millions more dead throughout Europe and in Germany.

Schäuble’s barely concealed calls for new wars and imperialist crimes express the mood of the entire ruling class. In a recent interview with the Augsburger Allgemeine newspaper, Herfried Münkler, now emeritus professor at Humboldt University and a foreign policy adviser to the German government, rejoiced, saying, “I am delighted when, for example, the German chancellor talks about ‘strategic autonomy’ or Ms. von der Leyen [the former defence minister and current president of the European Commission] talks about the ‘language of power.’”

The professor added, in his cynical and arrogant manner, “When I started long ago to emphasize power as a factor that will play a role in the future, it was not easy to make this idea stick. It was said, how terrible and cruel. We have our values after all. Those candy suckers thought that everything would proceed by itself. Supported by a latent theological faith in God’s work in the form of humanitarian values in the world, it was somehow forgotten that these are also questions of power.”

Münkler has repeatedly made clear in the past what he means by “questions of power” and “candy sucking.” In countless interviews he has called for the acquisition and deployment of combat drones and lamented the “post-heroic society” whose population is no longer prepared to pay the price for the imperialist appetites of the ruling class. In a conversation with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Münkler went so far as to describe the poison gas used in World War I as a “humane” weapon.

Then there is the case of Münkler’s colleague, the right-wing extremist Professor Jörg Baberowski (who declared, “Hitler was not vicious”), who is publicly defended by the German government and who recently physically attacked a left-wing student at his university.

During a panel discussion at the German Historical Museum in 2014, Baberowski declared, “And if you are not prepared to take hostages, burn villages and hang people and spread fear and terror, as the terrorists do, if you are not prepared to do so, you will not win such an argument, then you should leave it alone.”

That such criminal language can be used by a German academic who enjoys the support of dominant sections of the state is a testament to the fact that German rearmament and preparations for new wars are accompanied by the legitimization of the criminal and barbarous violence for which the Nazis were notorious.

The Sozialistische Gleichheitspartei (Socialist Equality Party) and its youth and student organization, the International Youth and Students for Social Equality (IYSSE), will fight to mobilize the growing opposition among workers and youth to the danger of militarism and fascism on the basis of an international socialist program. This time, the reckoning with Nazism must occur before the German ruling class has the opportunity to instigate new crimes and catastrophies.

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US Vice President Mike Pence has been slammed by experts for peddling the “crazy conspiracy theory” that Iranian General Qassem Soleimani was behind the 9/11 attacks.

In a Twitter thread attempting to justify the assassination of Iranian Commander Qassem Soleimani, Pence tweeted that military official had “assisted in the clandestine travel of 10 of the 12 terrorists who carried out the September 11 terrorist attacks in the United States.”

However Twitter users were quick to point out that the 9/11 Commission concluded that there was no evidence of Iranian involvement or prior knowledge of the attack, with no mention of Soleimani in the 600 page official report.

CNN’s security analyst Peter Bergen said that “pretty much everything in that tweet is not correct”, and called it a “crazy conspiracy theory”.

MSNBC’sFirst Look” host Ayman Mohyeldin said: “It is a low point in American politics when you’re exploiting 9/11 to achieve a policy objective that is totally manipulated and let’s be clear, Mike Pence’s tweet is factually wrong.”

He pointed out that the hijackers travelled through Iran to exploit their policy of not stamping the passports of Saudi nationals.

He continued: “To come around now and to say Iran was somehow complicit in 9/11 is the same as saying the United Arab Emirates government or the Saudi Arabian government were also complicit in 9/11, of which this administration has categorically rejected.”

He went on to describe Pence’s claims as a “deliberate and misleading lie.”

The September 11 attacks, which destroyed the World Trade Centre in New York and saw a plane flown into the US Defence headquarters the Pentagon in 2001, were orchestrated by terror group Al-Qaeda and carried about by 19 hijackers, 15 of which were Saudi nationals.

Tensions in the region have continued to rise after US President Donald Trump claimed he has 52 Iranian sites of cultural heritage targeted and has threatened to destroy them if Iran dares to retaliate, a tactic which is considered a war crime.

Yesterday, Iraq complained to the United Nations against the attack which took place on its soil and voted to kick US troops out of the country. Trump threatened sanctions if such action is taken.

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Selected Articles: The United States: A “Destroyer Of Nations”

February 10th, 2020 by Global Research News

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Menace on the Menu in Post-EU Britain

By Colin Todhunter, February 10, 2020

PM Boris Johnson is planning to do a trade deal with the US that could see the gutting of food and environment standards. However, Johnson recently suggested that the UK will be “governed by science, not mumbo-jumbo” on food imports. He has called for an end to “hysterical” fears about US food coming to the UK as part of a post-Brexit trade deal.

Gas Wars in the Mediterranean

By Mike Whitney, February 10, 2020

The unexpected alliance between Turkey and Libya is a geopolitical earthquake that changes the balance of power in the eastern Mediterranean and across the Middle East. Turkey’s audacious move has enraged its rivals in the region and cleared the way for a dramatic escalation in the 9 year-long Libyan civil war. It has also forced leaders in Europe and Washington to decide how they will counter Turkey’s plan to defend the U.N-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA), and to extend its maritime borders from Europe to Africa basically creating “a water corridor through the eastern Mediterranean linking the coasts of Turkey and Libya.” 

The United States: A “Destroyer Of Nations”

By Daniel Kovalik, February 09, 2020

In the aftermath of the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 – an invasion which many Iraqis believe left their country in the worst condition it has been since the Mongol invasion of 1258 — there was much discussion in the media about the Bush Administration’s goal for “nation-building” in that country.   Of course, if there ever were such a goal, it was quickly abandoned, and one hardly ever hears the term “nation-building” discussed as a U.S. foreign policy objective anymore.

China – Western China Bashing – vs. Western Biowarfare?

By Peter Koenig, February 09, 2020

On 29 January WHO Director-General, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said that there was no reason to declare the outbreak of the coronavirus 2019-nCoV in China a pandemic risk. On 30 January, he declared the virus an international emergency, but made clear that there was no reason for countries to issue travel-advisories against travelling to China. Let me speculate – the ‘international emergency’ was declared at the request of Washington, and the comment against the travel-advisory was an addition by Dr. Tedros himself, as he realized that there was indeed no reason for panic, that China is doing wonders in stemming the virus from spreading and in detecting the virus early on.

By What Right Does Canada and Its Gendarmerie Invade Wet’suwet’en Territory?

By Kim Petersen, February 09, 2020

In the nineteenth century, Gilbert Sproat, a colonial official, wrote an account of his time among the Nuu Chah Nulth people on the west coast of Vancouver Island. He noted that the original inhabitants have “known every inch of the west coast for thousands of years.”1

Despite this acknowledgment of long-term habitation, the mindset of settler-colonialists toward the Original Peoples was condescending.

Mexico’s President AMLO Shows How It’s Done

By Ellen Brown, February 09, 2020

While U.S. advocates and local politicians struggle to get their first public banks chartered, Mexico’s new president has begun construction on 2,700 branches of a government-owned bank to be completed in 2021, when it will be the largest bank in the country. At a press conference on Jan. 6, he said the neoliberal model had failed; private banks were not serving the poor and people outside the cities, so the government had to step in.

Why Nancy Pelosi is “A National Disgrace”

By Prof Michel Chossudovsky, February 07, 2020

Nancy Pelosi tears up Trump’s State of the Union Address.

“I thought it was a terrible thing,” said Trump. “It’s illegal what she did. She broke the law.”

On one thing I agree with Donald Trump:

Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi is a “National Disgrace”.

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The Trump regime never tires of trumpeting the myth of American ‘energy independence’. The foreign policy establishment in Washington sees America’s emergence as the worlds largest oil exporter as giving a huge boost to the achievement of U.S. geo-political goals. In his testimony to the House Foreign Affairs Committee Kenneth Medlock, Senior Director of the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University’s James A. Baker Institute for Public Policy, stated:

“Nevertheless, the growth in US oil production is transforming the status quo and shifting the geopolitical balance. This highlights the importance of the so-called ‘shale revolution’ in achieving US geopolitical and foreign policy aims.”

In recent years we have seen how the U.S. has weaponized its huge production of oil and gas to attack its geo-political rivals.

President Trump’s abandonment of the Iran nuclear deal and reimposition of sanctions on Tehran was based on the premise that the drop in Iranian oil exports would be made up for by U.S. shale oil production. Thus keeping down any inflationary pressures on the global oil market.

Trump’s strategy may have failed to totally stop Iranian oil exports, but the sanctions are inflicting significant economic damage and great suffering on the people, triggering mass protests in Tehran and other cities.

Trump has also used America’s record gas production as a carrot and stick with which to try and undermine Russian exports to Europe. At the recent Davos summit Trump dangled the carrot of cheap American gas to his European allies:

“With an abundance of American natural gas now available, our European allies no longer have to be vulnerable to unfriendly energy suppliers either. We urge our friends in Europe to use America’s vast supply and achieve true energy security. With U.S. companies and researchers leading the way, we are on the threshold of virtually unlimited reserves of energy, including from traditional fuels, LNG [liquefied natural gas], clean coal, next-generation nuclear power, and gas hydrate technologies.”

Trump has also used the stick to force Europe away from Russian gas supplies. Under the terms of the misnamed ‘Protecting Europe’s Energy Security Act of 2019, a sanctions law ironically written by oil and gas rich Texas Senator Ted Cruz, the U.S. has threatened EU countries with sanctions if they participate in helping with the construction of Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline under the Baltic sea.

Ironically, the pipeline has almost been completed and the American sanctions are a case of too little too late.

We could go and look at other cases such as Venezuela where the U.S. has used its position as the world’s top oil producer to try and destroy that nation’s economy.

The record production of oil and gas has fuelled the hubris that underpins the manoeuvres of the American empire as it seeks to undermine and/or destroy its geo-political rivals.

This belief that the Shale Revolution will continue for decades into the future giving the American empire even greater power is based on a fundamentally flawed set of assumptions.

Shale Revolution based on fantasy thinking regarding geology

The prospect of the United States becoming a net exporter of oil or ‘energy independent’ has fuelled fantasy thinking amongst the geo-political strategists of the American empire. Both presidents Obama and Trump have enthusiastically trumpeted this belief.

The myth of American energy independence, thus ending its reliance on oil from the volatile Middle East, is based on Alice in Wonderland forecasts for shale oil and gas production from the highly influential U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA).

The EIA 2020 forecast is for shale oil production to peak in 2022 at 14 million barrels per day and continue at that level until 2050. The vast majority of this oil production is expected to come from the shale oil pays in just 3 states: Texas, New Mexico and North Dakota. The bulk of this oil production is expected to come from the world’s largest oil field in the Permian basin that runs across Texas and New Mexico.

Let us put to one side the EIA’s failure to factor in the impacts of recessions, environmental disasters and its highly unrealistic assumption that energy consumption in America will only grow by 0.3% a year until 2050.

A growing body of evidence suggests that the EIA is basing its forecasts on very unrealistic assumptions regarding the geology of American shale plays.

The highly respected Desmog news has warned since 2018 that forecasts for shale oil production were highly unrealistic, makes the humorous observation that ‘Rocks don’t care if CEOs promise oil’ and that the EIA, ‘can’t make oil appear where there isn’t any.’

More and more evidence is emerging that the shale oil plays maybe nearing peak production which will be followed by decline.

Last November IHS Markit, which has 5,000 analysts providing economic data to over 50,000 customers worldwide, produced a report that predicted that U.S. shale oil production is headed for a ‘Major Slowdown’.

According to Raoul LeBlanc, vice president for North American uncoventionals, IHS Markit, shale oil production will peak by 2020 and that by 2021 U.S. oil production growth will have halted:

“Going from nearly 2 million barrels per day annual growth in 2018, an all-time global record, to essentially no growth by 2021 makes it pretty clear that this is a new era of moderation for shale producers. This is a dramatic shift after several years where annual growth of more than one million barrels per day was the norm.”

The problem oil companies face is that the decline rate of shale oil wells are frighteningly rapid at a rate of 70% in the first year and 30% in the second year of operation. This means they have to keep pumping and drilling new wells like mad to just to keep up production levels.

The Journal of Petroleum Technology has pointed that this poses major problems for the U.S. shale industry:

“These high late-stage decline rates represent a clear challenge for current reserves and ultimate recovery estimates from wells that were expected to produce economically for 30 or more years.’’

This is in sharp contrast to conventional oil wells which have an average decline rate of 6.7% and have much longer lives. Most of the world’s giant oil fields were discovered in the first half of the 20th century yet are still producing over 50% of global oil supply.

The IHS Markit report has found that the base decline rates of more than 150,00 producing oil wells in the Permian basin rose from 34% in 2018 to 40% in 2019.

According to Raoul LeBlanc:

“Base decline is the volume that oil and gas producers need to add from new wells just to stay where they are—it is the speed of the treadmill. Because of the large increases of recent years, the base decline production rate for the Permian Basin has increased dramatically, and we expect those declines to continue to accelerate. As a result, it is going to be challenging, especially for some companies with cash constraints, just to keep production flat.”

Further cold water on the EIA’s super optimistic forecasts for American shale oil production comes from Mark Papa, a closely followed pioneer of the shale industry and CEO of independent oil and gas company Centennial Resource Development.

At a gathering of oil industry executives in 2018 Papa warned that there was a growing shortage of tier 1 acreage i.e. oil wells with the highly productive sweet spots. Papa stated that the U.S. shale industry faces a major challenge posed by the geology of shale plays:

“There are good geological spots in shale plays and weaker geological spots, and a lot of the good geological spots have already been drilled.

“My theory is that you’ve got basically resource exhaustion that is beginning to take place. It’s no secret that you’ve only got three shale oil plays in the U.S. of any consequence. The rest of them don’t amount to a hill of beans.”

Papa further warned that the American shale industry will face major changes in the 2020s as most oil plays face rapid depletion rates and that OPEC oil will become more important as the decade progresses. He believes that the second and third biggest oil plays: the Eagle Ford in Texas and Baaken in North Dakota have already peaked forcing drillers to move to far less productive acreage.

Permian Basin which contains the highest producing plays in America is flat lining

Of greater concern are the reports warning that the Permian basin, the jewel in the crown of America’s fracking industry, is approaching peak production.

In 2018 Paul Kibsgaard CEO of Schlumberger, one of the oil industry’s largest service provider, warned, “We are already starting to see a similar reduction in unit well productivity to that already seen in the Eagle Ford, suggesting that the Permian growth potential could be lower than earlier expected.”

This is supported by Javier Blas, chief energy correspondent for Bloomberg News who recently tweeted that oil production in both the Permian and Baaken are slowing down:

David Hughes, a scientist who worked for 32 years with the Canadian Geological Survey, has carried out an exhaustive analysis of the EIA claims for U.S. shale production up to 2050. His 177 page report SHALE REALITY CHECK 2019 Drilling into the U.S. Government’s Optimistic Forecasts for Shale Gas & Tight Oil Production Through 2050 concludes that EIA forecasts through 2050 are,’extremely optimistic for the most part, and are therefore highly unlikely to be realized.’

In the chapter of his report on the Permian basin Hughes notes that:

“… in Reeves County, which was the top producing county in the Permian Basin as of April 2019, well productivity appears to have flat-lined in 2018. Reeves County has seen the most horizontal wells drilled since 2011 of any county, and the flat-lining of productivity gains suggests sweet spots there may be reaching their limits and over-drilling may be taking its toll. … Over-drilling will not increase ultimate recovery, although it may allow resources to be recovered sooner.’’

Hughes examines the top 3 plays in the Permian basin (Spraberry, Wolfcamp and Bone Spring) in forensic detail. His analysis of the Spraberry play which is the highest producing play in the Permian basin reveals how the EIA forecast for shale oil production up-to 2050 is totally unrealistic and impossible to achieve.

Spraberry Play in the Permian Basin

The Spraberry play contains over 44,922 wells. To achieve the EIA forecasted levels of production it would have to achieve well densities of 8.1 per square mile which seems highly unrealistic as spacing wells too close together has the effect of lowering production.

Even worse it appears the EIA is engaging in wilful deception in its forecasts of shale oil production. How else do you explain the EIA forecasting that the Spraberry play will achieve its massive production levels up until 2050 by a 225% overshoot of its own estimates of proven resources plus unproven reserves!

Hughes points out:

“Even if … 100% of the EIA’s proven reserve plus unproven resource estimates could be recovered by 2050, 8.33 billion barrels are missing to meet the EIA production forecast. – The EIA’s reference case production forecast is not consistent with its own estimates of proven reserves plus unproven resources—6.65 billion barrels are available from its estimates, whereas its production forecast requires recovery of 14.98 billion barrels over 2017–2050.’’

This begs the question where are the 8.33 billion barrels of missing oil to come from? It would appear that they exist nowhere but in the imaginations of EIA officials.

Hughes conclusion is rather damning for the Shale Revolution narrative

The key findings of his report seriously undermine the whole energy independence narrative of the Washington establishment and should give the geo-political opponents of the U.S. some encouragement.

“Well productivity has increased in most plays through focusing on sweet spots and due to longer horizontal laterals and increased volumes of water and proppant, as well as more fracking stages. The limits of technology and exploiting sweet spots are becoming evident, however, as in some plays new wells are exhibiting lower productivities.’’

For the U.S. shale industry to meet EIA forecasts Hughes estimates that the fracking industry would have to increase production not just from the big 3 plays (Permian, Eagle Ford and Baaken) that produce 85% of American oil but also from the older plays that are already in decline. To meet the EIA forecasts, ‘1,892,854 additional wells would be needed by 2050 to meet the forecast, at an overall cost of $13 trillion.’

Hughes concludes that the:

“shale revolution” has sparked calls for “American energy dominance’’ despite the fact that the U.S. is projected to be a net oil importer through 2050, even given EIA forecasts. Although the “shale revolution” has provided a reprieve from what just 15 years ago was thought to be a terminal decline in oil and gas production in the U.S., this reprieve is temporary, and the U.S. would be well advised to plan for much-reduced shale oil and gas production in the long term based on this analysis of play fundamentals.’’

Consequences

The peak and subsequent decline of shale oil production will have an impact upon the American economy and its massive trade deficit. Once again it will become more heavily dependent on oil production from overseas increasing the costs for industry and consumers.

If American shale oil production goes into decline during the 2020s it will weaken the influence of Washington over oil markets and reduce its ability to destroy the exports of major oil producers such as Iran and Venezuela. Washington will not be able to so easily contain the inflationary pressures on oil prices from taking out the oil production of such major producers.

Oil production from countries that Washington designates as enemies, such as Russia, Iran and Venezuela, will increase in importance on the global market as U.S. shale oil production starts to decline. This will give greater power and influence to OPEC and Russia when it comes to determining oil prices through production cuts/increases.

As the shale industry declines it will add greater impetus to American efforts to control the oil producing countries of the Middle East. Nations from Iraq to Saudi Arabia are developing trade and infrastructure relations with China which the United States takes strong exception to.

Take for example, the recent bombshell admission by Iraq’s caretaker Prime Minister that Trump threatened him with assassination if Iraq proceeds with an oil for infrastructure project with China. In the first phase of this deal Iraq will send 100,00 barrels of oil to China in return for a $10 billion credit. China would finish the building of the country’s electricity grid and other major infrastructure projects including its vital oil and gas sector.

According to Al-Monitor, the Iraqi PM’s financial adviser revealed on 23 December that the, ‘’most important provision in the China-Iraq agreement is to open an account for Iraq in Chinese banks to deposit oil funds. With that, Iraq can gradually do without its US accounts, according to parliamentary blocs that want to expel US forces from the country.’’

The United States sees such economic ties as mortal threats to the entire Petro-dollar system as Iraq would be able to bypass the American control of its oil trade which is denominated in U.S. dollars which are held in account with the Federal Reserve bank in New York.

The Petro-dollar system set up by Kissinger in the 1970s underpins the American control of the global trading system and allows it to maintain a massively over bloated military the scale of which the world has not seen since World War 2.

The American empire’s policy of regime change towards oil rich countries that do no support Washington’s agenda will see no let up. Indeed, it is liable to be stepped up.

As U.S. shale oil production declines it will seek to maintain control over the regions oil production. China’s desire for growing amounts of Middle Eastern oil will intensify this clash for resources, influence and power in the region. Thus leading to greater geo-political and economic conflict.

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I have written several times about the continuing NATO preparations for an attack on Russia, a second Operation Barbarossa, the code name for the Nazi invasion of the USSR in 1941. Circumstances prompt me to write about it again, for as of the last week in January the Americans and their gang of lieutenant nations in NATO have commenced the biggest military exercises in 25 years to take place in Europe. The code name for this operation is Defender-Europe 20 but we can interpret that as Attack-Russia 20; in effect a preparation for an attack on Russia comparable to the Nazi invasion in 1941 that killed 27 million Soviet citizens, wounded countless more and destroyed everything west of the Urals and led ultimately to the crushing of the Nazis that launched the attack.

For the past several years the US has been building up bases in Eastern Europe, building up their logistics systems, prepositioning vast amounts of munitions and weapons of every type and calibre, securing convoy routes from the USA across the Atlantic and across Europe right up to Russia’s borders for the rapid movement of military equipment and formations, installing nuclear capable missile systems in key locations from Poland to Romania, increasing intelligence flights in the Baltic, particularly with regard to the Russian base at Kaliningrad and the approaches to St. Petersburg, and the Black Sea, Crimea and Ukraine as well around the Russian bases at Vladivostok, all the while, in their propaganda talking about false flag operations they could use to blame Russia and provide the pretext for their attack. Kaliningrad has been mentioned several times by US generals and officials as one possible scene for staging a false flag operation for this purpose. But the number of scenarios they could use is limited only by their imagination and capabilities.

These conventional military exercises are complemented by the withdrawal of the United States from several nuclear arms treaties to give the US a free hand to develop and deploy nuclear weapons which, according to their National Defence Strategy, they will use whenever and wherever they see fit, without limitation or restrictions, including the intention to launch a nuclear first strike. The clear targets are Russia and China. The “pivot to the Pacific” that the Americans began some years ago is a part of these preparations, and while this applies pressure against China it also threatens Russia.

But the new exercises are raising alarms in Moscow and Minsk The Belarusian Minister of Defence, Andrei Rakov, noted that:

 “NATO’s military contingent deployed in the countries neighbouring Belarus during the Atlantic Resolve and Enhanced Forward Presence has been increased by 13 times in the past six years, from 550 to more than 7,000 troops, and the number of hardware units has grown fivefold and that the Defender-Europe 20 exercises to be organized on the territories of ten states, including Poland and the Baltic republics that border Belarus involve about 37,000 troops, with 20,000 of them from the United States.”

He also said that “the number of NATO drills near the Belarusian border and the number of personnel involved in these drills had more than doubled in the past five years. Defence spending has increased as well. In the past five years, Poland’s military budget soared by 30%, that of Lithuania — by 2.5 times, and Latvia’s — threefold.”

In such conditions, he underscored,

“Belarus is forced to take response measures. We are forced to react to the scale-up of military activities in Europe, including in close proximity to our border. Our response will not necessarily be tit-for-tat. We were ready for such development of the military political situation that is why our reaction has a planned character,” he noted. “Thus, in the past three years, the Belarusian military have increased the number of exercises by more than 20% and the number of snap combat readiness checks have doubled.”

The Russian Foreign Ministry on January 17 stated that,

“NATO’s military drills on the eastern flank of NATO are increasingly more reminiscent of purposeful preparations for a large-scale military conflict” and, “NATO countries are constantly building up their military presence close to our borders, working to improve the operational efficiency of redeploying forces to the eastern flank. The intensity of the drills whose scenarios are increasingly more reminiscent of preparations for a large-scale military conflict is increasing. The systematic development of the European segment of the US/NATO missile defence system continues.”

On February 4th Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated,

“Russia will react to the US military exercise in Europe Defender 2020 due in March, but it will do so in a way that will rule out unnecessary risks. Naturally, we will react. We cannot ignore processes that arouse very great concerns. But we will react in a way that will not create unnecessary risks.”

However it is certain the United States and its armed gang in NATO will do everything they can do take risks that could kill us all. For the Defender-Europe 20 exercises are on a vast scale, involving according to a US Army fact sheet, four Army prepositioned weapons and ammunition and other logistics sites in three European countries, transport materiel four thousand kilometres across twelve convoy routes, involve nine thousand US troops already in Europe, seven thousand National Guard soldiers, use 14 major ports and airfields, major elements of the US Navy, major elements of US Air Force units from the US, Europe and Africa, the deployment of 20,000 Army and Marine US soldiers from the US to Europe, twenty thousand pieces of equipment to be moved from the US to Europe including trucks, tanks, and artillery pieces, all having the objective, the US claims of

“increase strategic readiness and interoperability by exercising the U.S. military’s ability to rapidly deploy a large combat-credible force and equipment from the United States to Europe; and alongside its allies and partners, quickly respond to a potential crisis.”

And, they add,

“The joint, multinational training exercise is scheduled to take place from April to May 2020, with personnel and equipment movements occurring from February through July 2020. The exercise supports objectives defined by NATO to build readiness within the alliance and deter potential adversaries.”

The last sentence in the US Army Europe statement reveals the strategic objective of the exercises, to build readiness for war on Russia. There is no other interpretation possible.

On February 26, 2016 the Atlantic Council, the preeminent NATO think tank, issued a report on the state of readiness of the NATO alliance to fight and win a war with Russia. The focus of the report was on the Baltic States. The report is called “Alliance at Risk.”

It has the sub-heading “Strengthening European Defense in an Age of Turbulence and Competition.” Layer upon layer of distortion, half-truths, lies and fantasies obscure the fact that it is the NATO countries that have caused the turbulence from the Middle East to Ukraine. NATO is responsible for nothing according to this report, except “protecting the peace.” Russia is the supreme aggressor state, intent on undermining the security of Europe, even intent on attacking Europe, an “existential threat” that NATO must prepare to repel.

It states a series of lies at page 6 that,

The Russian invasion of Crimea, its support for separatists, and its invasion of eastern Ukraine have effectively ripped up the post-Cold War settlement of Europe. President Vladimir Putin has shattered any thoughts of a strategic partnership with NATO; instead, Russia is now a de facto strategic adversary. Even more dangerously, the threat is potentially existential, because Putin has constructed an international dynamic that could put Russia on a collision course with NATO. At the center of this collision would be the significant Russian-speaking populations in the Baltic States, whose interests are used by the Kremlin to justify Russia’s aggressive actions in the region. Under Article 5 of NATO’s Washington Treaty, any military move by Putin on the Baltic states would trigger war, potentially on a nuclear scale, because the Russians integrate nuclear weapons into every aspect of their military thinking.”

Lies, because none of this is true and it is the NATO war alliance that threatens the peace and incorporates nuclear weapons into all their military thinking and planning.

This supports warnings made the past two years of a move by NATO in the Baltic states which will be justified by false flag hybrid war operations conducted by NATO, as I have stated several times in other essays. This is emphasized by the recommendation in the report that “to deter any Russian encroachment into the Baltic States, NATO should establish a permanent presence in the region… to prevent a Russian coup de main operation …”

The document also uses language that indicates that the NATO powers do not recognize Russian sovereignty over Kaliningrad that was established at the end of the second world war, claiming that Russia “has ripped up” the post-Cold War settlement of Europe, whatever that means to them, because as far as we know the Cold War was supposed to end with the withdrawal of the Red Army from Eastern Europe in exchange for a commitment by USA that NATO would not move east. Instead the NATO powers, with the treachery that is their custom, moved quickly into those territories and began conducting regular and expanding military exercises threatening Russia directly. 

Once again, the NATO powers are preparing the ground for an incident involving Kaliningrad, home base of their Baltic Fleet and guardian of the approaches to St. Petersburg and what the Guardian stated is “emerging as a critical square on the east European chessboard in Vladimir Putin’s efforts to push back assertively against NATO expansion.”

The situation has become so critical that the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists moved their Doomsday Clock 20 seconds closer to midnight last week citing as a primary reason the immediate danger of nuclear war between the United States and Russia. They stated, “Civilization-ending nuclear war—whether started by design, blunder, or simple miscommunication—is a genuine possibility. But even they, a US organisation, lied about the true state of affairs and blamed Russia as much as the US for the situation the US and its allies have created.

As for international law, it is nowhere to be seen. The preparations for war by NATO are a violation of the UN Charter and the fundamental principles of international law contained in it. They are war crimes under the Nuremburg Principles and the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, because they are part of the conspiracy to commit, and preparations for, a war of aggression against Russia, and, since the use of nuclear weapons is a certainty if war breaks out, genocide of the entire human population.

The UN cannot act to prevent this because the Security Council, neutered by its own structure cannot act. The ICC continues to be an irrelevancy. And since, in the absence of a world government with policing powers, international law relies on a shared sense of morality, ethics and humanity to be effective, the total negation of morality by the leadership of the United States and the NATO countries has led to a breakdown of international law. Thugs, gangsters and pirates recognise no laws, and we live in a world where these are the people that are now in power in the west.

And so Russia reacts to defend itself, preparations for war intensify, and any hope we have of the American people delivering us from the criminals they keep raising to power, of us doing the same in the other NATO countries, of calling for peace as the World Peace Council does, giving peace a chance, as Lennon said, is buried deeper and deeper under layers of lies and propaganda and we are left with little but despair unless the people, the mass of people release the power latent in them and confront those in power and replace them with leaders dedicated not only to the welfare of their people, but also dedicated to peace, peace now and peace forever. I joined the Canadian Peace Congress to try to do that. I urge all of you to wake up to the danger, join peace groups wherever you are, do whatever you can, but block the road to war.

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Christopher Black is an international criminal lawyer based in Toronto. He is known for a number of high-profile war crimes cases and recently published his novel Beneath the Clouds. He writes essays on international law, politics and world events, especially for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.”

Featured image is from NEO

The US has deployed “low-yield” nuclear missiles on submarines, saying it’s to discourage nuclear conflict with Russia. The move is based on a “Russian strategy” made up in Washington and will only bring mass annihilation closer.

In a statement released earlier this week, US Under Secretary of Defense for Policy John Rood announced that “the US Navy has fielded the W76-2 low-yield submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM) warhead.” This new operational capability, Rood declared, “demonstrates to potential adversaries that there is no advantage to limited nuclear employment because the United States can credibly and decisively respond to any threat scenario.”

The threat underpinning justification for this new US nuclear deterrent had its roots in testimony delivered to the House Armed Services Committee in June 2015 by US Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work, who declared that “Russian military doctrine includes what some have called an ‘escalate to deescalate strategy’ – a strategy that purportedly seeks to deescalate a conventional conflict through coercive threats, including limited nuclear use.”

However, any review of actual Russian nuclear doctrine would have shown this to be a false premise. Provision 27 of the 2014 edition of ‘Russian Military Doctrine’ states that Russia “shall reserve the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy. The decision to use nuclear weapons shall be taken by the President of the Russian Federation.”

Russian threat, made in America

Despite this, the concept of ‘escalate to deescalate’ as official Russian military doctrine had become ingrained in official US nuclear doctrine by 2018, with the publication of the US Defense Department’s Nuclear Posture Review (NPR). Moscow, the 2018 NPR claimed, “threatens and exercises limited nuclear first use, suggesting a mistaken expectation that coercive nuclear threats or limited first use could paralyze the United States and NATO and thereby end a conflict on terms favorable to Russia. Some in the United States refer to this as Russia’s ‘escalate to deescalate’ doctrine.”

In response to this “made in America” Russian threat, the 2018 NPR identified a requirement to modify a number of submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) with low-yield nuclear warheads to strengthen US nuclear deterrence by providing US military commanders with a weapon that addresses “the conclusion that potential adversaries, like Russia, believe that employment of low-yield nuclear weapons will give them an advantage over the United States and its allies and partners.”

As was the case with Robert Work’s 2015 congressional testimony, the 2018 NPR did not provide the source for the existence of a Russian ‘escalate to deescalate’ doctrine, except to note that it originated in the US – not Russia. Nonetheless, based upon the 2018 NPR, President Donald Trump requested that the Defense Department acquire a new low-yield nuclear warhead for the Trident SLBM, setting in motion a process which culminated in the recent announcement that this new warhead had reached operational capacity.

Voices of reason fall on deaf ears

In response to President Trump’s request, a letter, signed by a laundry list of notable American statesmen, politicians and military officers, including former Secretary of State George Schultz, former Secretary of Defense William Perry and the former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, General James Cartwright, was sent to the Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell, stating that there was no need for this new “low yield” warhead. The letter furthermore noted that the premise of this warhead — the so called ‘escalate to deescalate’ Russian doctrine — was derived from a “false narrative” combining non-existent Russian intent with an equally fictitious “deterrence gap” that could only be filled by the new nuclear weapon. This letter fell on deaf ears.

At a meeting of the Valdai Club in October 2018, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the issue of Russian nuclear doctrine, prompted by questions raised by the publication of the 2018 NPR. “There is no provision for a pre-emptive strike in our nuclear weapons doctrine,” Putin declared. “Our concept is based on a reciprocal counter strike. There is no need to explain what this is to those who understand, as for those who do not, I would like to say it again: this means that we are prepared and will use nuclear weapons only when we know for certain that some potential aggressor is attacking Russia, our territory…[o]nly when we know for certain — and this takes a few seconds to understand — that Russia is being attacked we will deliver a counter strike. This would be a reciprocal counter strike. Why do I say ‘counter’? Because we will counter missiles flying towards us by sending a missile in the direction of an aggressor.”

There’s no such thing as ‘limited’ nuke use

In a 1982 article published in Foreign Affairs entitled ‘Nuclear Weapons and the Atlantic Alliance’, four senior American statesmen (McGeorge Bundy, George F. Kennan, Robert S. McNamara and Gerard C. Smith) who had a hand in crafting US nuclear policy declared that “No one has ever succeeded in advancing any persuasive reason to believe that any use of nuclear weapons, even on the smallest scale, could reliably be expected to remain limited.”

This fact holds as true today as it did when the article was written. Perhaps there is no better voice to emphasize this point than Russian President Vladimir Putin, again addressing the 2018 Valdai Conference.

“Of course, [the decision to launch nuclear weapons in defense of Russia] amounts to a global catastrophe, but I would like to repeat that we cannot be the initiators of such a catastrophe because we have no provision for a pre-emptive strike. Yes, it looks like we are sitting on our hands and waiting until someone uses nuclear weapons against us. Well, yes, this is what it is. But then any aggressor should know that retaliation is inevitable, and they will be annihilated.”

And we as the victims of an aggression, we as martyrs would go to paradise while they will simply perish because they won’t even have time to repent their sins.

The Trump administration would do well to ponder these words as they embrace the false deterrence of the new “low yield” nuclear-armed Trident SLBM. The fact of the matter is it deters nothing, and only invites global annihilation.

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Featured image: First launch of a Trident missile on January 18, 1977 at Cape Canaveral, Florida [Credit: U.S. Navy file photo]

In the unintuitive world of nuclear weapons strategy, it’s often difficult to identify which decisions can serve to decrease the risk of a devastating nuclear conflict and which might instead increase it. Such complexity stems from the very foundation of the field: Nuclear weapons are widely seen as bombs built never to be used. Historically, granular—even seemingly mundane—decisions about force structure, research efforts, or communicated strategy have confounded planners, sometimes causing the opposite of the intended effect.

Such is the risk carried by one strategy change that has earned top billing under the Trump administration: the deployment of a new “low-yield” nuclear weapon on US submarines.

Low-yield, high risk. The Trump administration first announced its plans for a new low-yield nuclear warhead in its February 2018 Nuclear Posture Review, a public report meant to communicate and clarify various American nuclear weapons policies. The Nuclear Posture Review presented the lower-strength warhead as necessary for the “preservation of credible deterrence against regional aggression.” In other words, the United States was seeking a new, intermediate option for an imagined scenario in which Russia, after starting a conventional war in Europe, might be tempted to use smaller nuclear weapons first in order to win the conflict. In such a scenario, US thinking goes, the threat of US retaliation with full-strength bombs would not be believable and would not be enough to deter Russia from pursuing such a course in the first place. The way to deter a limited nuclear strike by Russia was for the United States to have a readily available option for retaliating with a limited, proportional strike of its own.

The new weapon proposed in the Nuclear Posture Review is actually a modification of an existing warhead that sits atop the Navy’s submarine-launched ballistic missiles. The W76-2, as the low-yield variant will be called, has an explosive yield of about six kilotons of TNT, compared to approximately 100 kilotons for its unmodified original. The difference in power between the versions is striking, but it’s worth noting that a six-kiloton weapon is still 500 times more powerful than the most powerful conventional explosive in the American arsenal.

But proponents of the low-yield warhead overlook or dismiss a few key concerns that make the W76-2 an unrealistic military option.

First, the imagined target for such a weapon is yet unclear. For most military units and installations, conventional weapons would be a more viable option. For more “strategic” targets like cities or hardened bases, anything but a full-sized nuclear attack would risk failure. What value does a low-yield warhead have if its primary mission is poorly defined? Further, even if an ideal target did present itself, the value and urgency in striking would need to be such that crossing the nuclear barrier would be well worth the precedent it sets.

Second, launching low-yield missiles would create a so-called “discrimination problem.” Since US nuclear submarines will carry both the low-yield and the full-size options, it would be impossible for a potential adversary to determine which kind of warhead a ballistic missile would be carrying until it impacted, leaving no reasonable room to recognize the comparative nuance of a low-yield strike. With a very short window to decide where and how to retaliate, an enemy may just as well assume the worst, and choose a full-sized response.

Third, launching a ballistic missile from a submarine risks revealing that submarine’s location instantly, making it an extremely high value target for a rapid enemy response. Since American ballistic missile submarines are primarily tasked with a “survivable second strike” deterrence role, divulging the whereabouts of any of them at the beginning of a nuclear war would be foolish.

Such tactical circumstances not only invite a huge degree of risk when it comes to mission success, but also provide a likely avenue for rapid enemy escalation—the very opposite of the low-yield warhead’s declared mission. Without confidence and clarity in each of these areas, the use of a low-yield nuclear weapon may in fact produce a much greater amount of destruction, even before the warhead has reached its target.

Finally, critics worry that military planners will be tempted to use the low-yield warhead not for deterrence, but for a first strike. Such concerns were initially dismissed out of hand, but recent news coverage gives them more credibility.

Reporting by Newsweek in January 2020 revealed that in 2016 the United States held a wargame featuring the Air Force’s B61 nuclear bomb—another weapon with a low-yield option—in an imagined battlefield situation against Iran. Despite signing a landmark nonproliferation agreement with Iran the previous year, the Obama administration saw fit to train its command and control systems for a nuclear attack against a non-nuclear state. Officers speaking on the record to Newsweek about the exercise even identified the W76-2 as an imagined first-strike option for such a scenario, suggesting that its deployment is “explicitly intended to make the threat of such an attack more credible.”

These and other techno-strategic concerns have been well covered since the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review, and a wide array of nuclear experts have voiced dissent for the W76-2 program. Nonetheless, by January 2019 the warhead was reportedly in production, and despite early vows to block the program, House Democrats passed a defense budget in December that allocated funds for its continuation. The low-yield option, with all its advantages and problems, will be here for US submarines for the foreseeable future. But the wider landscape of risk goes well beyond the low-yield warhead and highlights a troubling lack of imagination when it comes to modern American nuclear thinking.

An imagination problem. Washington’s decision to add a more “useful” nuclear warhead to its arsenal is, regrettably, just the latest in a string of policies that have served to raise the profile of nuclear weapons around the world. Even before last year’s low-yield announcement, several American initiatives have touched off a series of international responses, each moving the world ever closer to the nuclear brink.

One clear example comes as early as 2002, when the George W. Bush administration pulled out of the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and established the Missile Defense Agency. In doing so, it signaled, at least from the perspective of its adversaries, a return to a nuclear warfighting approach within the Pentagon: Plans (and capabilities) would move away from the deterrence status quo, and instead allow for more aggressive risk-taking.

Ostensibly meant to counter a North Korea-sized nuclear threat, Washington’s massive investment in missile defense irked planners in Moscow and Beijing, who soon announced their own investment into new missile technologies to overcome missile defense and reestablish their offensive capability.

Those emerging Chinese and Russian missile systems are now being used to justify new American missile projects, with no clarity on the eventual end game. In this, policy makers have imagined the utility of various aggressive weapons systems on a case-by-case basis, with little to no thought given to the long-term consequences of such decisions.

But beyond the well-documented risks of an arms race, the tenor of any given declared policy has an important role in shaping the imagination of the professional strategists tasked with planning for every contingency. When combined with such chalkboard tools as nuclear weapons, an aggressive shift in policy can serve to reinforce itself in time, as military planners draw up new scenarios that make liberal use of available technologies—as exhibited by the 2016 wargame featuring a nuclear first strike.

It’s reasonable to assume the experience with wargames built an internal interest in a low-yield option, a concept that soon came to fruition under an impressionable Trump administration. Without a clear longer-range vision on arms control and the overall role of nuclear weapons, leaders risk feeding into the continual demands of short-sighted technological procurement.

The value of thought. The regrettable reality is that, when it comes to nuclear weapons, clear strategy has always followed capability. The Cold War offers many examples in which a hasty deployment or a misinterpreted exerciseresulted in miscalculation and crisis. In recent years, the US government’s handling of nuclear strategy has begun to resemble the most dangerous years of the 1950s, where new technologies were fielded faster than plans and guidance could be properly articulated.

Fortunately, it isn’t too late to curb these trends. The debate over the low-yield warhead and other such proposals matters not just for the sake of crafting responsible policy, but for making sure appropriate intellectual thinking is in place for the many decisions yet to come.

What’s needed most today is not a just technological rebuke of the low-yield nuclear warhead, but a fresh line of thinking about nuclear weapons broadly, and an entirely new set of proscriptive rules for the Pentagon to build around for the coming decades. For that, the field needs new voices, ideas, and perspectives.

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Andrew Facini is Publishing Manager at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.

Featured image: Workers at the Pantex Plant in Texas handle a W76 nuclear warhead as part of a program to extend its life. Image credit: Pantex Plant via YouTube.

Hassan Diab Files Civil Claim Regarding His Extradition

February 10th, 2020 by Hassan Diab Support Committee

On Friday February 7, Hassan Diab’s civil lawyer filed a statement of claim in the Ontario Superior Court of Justice regarding Hassan’s extradition in 2014. At a press conference that day, Hassan stated:

“Since my release in 2018, we have called for a public inquiry into the case – the government has said No. We’ve called for reforms to Canada’s extradition law – the government has taken no meaningful action. Now, we are left with no choice but to seek justice through the courts. The reality is that my ordeal could have been prevented. And I am here to ensure that no Canadian ever has to go through the same experience again.”

It’s important that we continue to hold government officials accountable so that no one in Canada would have to suffer through the ordeal that Hassan and his family had to endure for over 10 years.

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Featured image is from The Canadian Press

The Truth About Julian Assange

February 10th, 2020 by Nils Melzer

A made-up rape allegation and fabricated evidence in Sweden, pressure from the UK not to drop the case, a biased judge, detention in a maximum security prison, psychological torture – and soon extradition to the U.S., where he could face up to 175 years in prison for exposing war crimes. For the first time, the UN Special Rapporteur on Torture, Nils Melzer, speaks in detail about the explosive findings of his investigation into the case of Wikileaks founder Julian Assange.

An interview was conducted by Swiss Journalist Daniel RyserYves Bachmann (Photos) and Charles Hawley (Translation), 31.01.2020

1. The Swedish Police constructed a story of rape

Nils Melzer, why is the UN Special Rapporteur on Torture interested in Julian Assange?

N.M. That is something that the German Foreign Ministry recently asked me as well: Is that really your core mandate? Is Assange the victim of torture?

What was your response?

N. M. The case falls into my mandate in three different ways: First, Assange published proof of systematic torture. But instead of those responsible for the torture, it is Assange who is being persecuted. Second, he himself has been ill-treated to the point that he is now exhibiting symptoms of psychological torture. And third, he is to be extradited to a country that holds people like him in prison conditions that Amnesty International has described as torture. In summary: Julian Assange uncovered torture, has been tortured himself and could be tortured to death in the United States. And a case like that isn’t supposed to be part of my area of responsibility? Beyond that, the case is of symbolic importance and affects every citizen of a democratic country.

Why didn’t you take up the case much earlier?

Imagine a dark room. Suddenly, someone shines a light on the elephant in the room – on war criminals, on corruption. Assange is the man with the spotlight. The governments are briefly in shock, but then they turn the spotlight around with accusations of rape. It is a classic maneuver when it comes to manipulating public opinion. The elephant once again disappears into the darkness, behind the spotlight. And Assange becomes the focus of attention instead, and we start talking about whether Assange is skateboarding in the embassy or whether he is feeding his cat correctly. Suddenly, we all know that he is a rapist, a hacker, a spy and a narcissist. But the abuses and war crimes he uncovered fade into the darkness. I also lost my focus, despite my professional experience, which should have led me to be more vigilant.

Let’s start at the beginning: What led you to take up the case?

In December 2018, I was asked by his lawyers to intervene. I initially declined. I was overloaded with other petitions and wasn’t really familiar with the case. My impression, largely influenced by the media, was also colored by the prejudice that Julian Assange was somehow guilty and that he wanted to manipulate me. In March 2019, his lawyers approached me for a second time because indications were mounting that Assange would soon be expelled from the Ecuadorian Embassy. They sent me a few key documents and a summary of the case and I figured that my professional integrity demanded that I at least take a look at the material.

And then?

It quickly became clear to me that something was wrong. That there was a contradiction that made no sense to me with my extensive legal experience: Why would a person be subject to nine years of a preliminary investigation for rape without charges ever having been filed?

Is that unusual?

I have never seen a comparable case. Anyone can trigger a preliminary investigation against anyone else by simply going to the police and accusing the other person of a crime. The Swedish authorities, though, were never interested in testimony from Assange. They intentionally left him in limbo. Just imagine being accused of rape for nine-and-a-half years by an entire state apparatus and by the media without ever being given the chance to defend yourself because no charges had ever been filed.

You say that the Swedish authorities were never interested in testimony from Assange. But the media and government agencies have painted a completely different picture over the years: Julian Assange, they say, fled the Swedish judiciary in order to avoid being held accountable.

That’s what I always thought, until I started investigating. The opposite is true. Assange reported to the Swedish authorities on several occasions because he wanted to respond to the accusations. But the authorities stonewalled.

What do you mean by that: “The authorities stonewalled?”

Allow me to start at the beginning. I speak fluent Swedish and was thus able to read all of the original documents. I could hardly believe my eyes: According to the testimony of the woman in question, a rape had never even taken place at all. And not only that: The woman’s testimony was later changed by the Stockholm police without her involvement in order to somehow make it sound like a possible rape. I have all the documents in my possession, the emails, the text messages.

“The woman’s testimony was later changed by the police” – how exactly?

On Aug. 20, 2010, a woman named S. W. entered a Stockholm police station together with a second woman named A. A. The first woman, S. W. said she had had consensual sex with Julian Assange, but he had not been wearing a condom. She said she was now concerned that she could be infected with HIV and wanted to know if she could force Assange to take an HIV test. She said she was really worried. The police wrote down her statement and immediately informed public prosecutors. Even before questioning could be completed, S. W. was informed that Assange would be arrested on suspicion of rape. S. W. was shocked and refused to continue with questioning. While still in the police station, she wrote a text message to a friend saying that she didn’t want to incriminate Assange, that she just wanted him to take an HIV test, but the police were apparently interested in «getting their hands on him.»

What does that mean?

S.W. never accused Julian Assange of rape. She declined to participate in further questioning and went home. Nevertheless, two hours later, a headline appeared on the front page of Expressen, a Swedish tabloid, saying that Julian Assange was suspected of having committed two rapes.

Two rapes?

Yes, because there was the second woman, A. A. She didn’t want to press charges either; she had merely accompanied S. W. to the police station. She wasn’t even questioned that day. She later said that Assange had sexually harassed her. I can’t say, of course, whether that is true or not. I can only point to the order of events: A woman walks into a police station. She doesn’t want to file a complaint but wants to demand an HIV test. The police then decide that this could be a case of rape and a matter for public prosecutors. The woman refuses to go along with that version of events and then goes home and writes a friend that it wasn’t her intention, but the police want to «get their hands on» Assange. Two hours later, the case is in the newspaper. As we know today, public prosecutors leaked it to the press – and they did so without even inviting Assange to make a statement. And the second woman, who had allegedly been raped according to the Aug. 20 headline, was only questioned on Aug. 21.

What did the second woman say when she was questioned?

She said that she had made her apartment available to Assange, who was in Sweden for a conference. A small, one-room apartment. When Assange was in the apartment, she came home earlier than planned, but told him it was no problem and that the two of them could sleep in the same bed. That night, they had consensual sex, with a condom. But she said that during sex, Assange had intentionally broken the condom. If that is true, then it is, of course, a sexual offense – so-called «stealthing». But the woman also said that she only later noticed that the condom was broken. That is a contradiction that should absolutely have been clarified. If I don’t notice it, then I cannot know if the other intentionally broke it. Not a single trace of DNA from Assange or A. A. could be detected in the condom that was submitted as evidence.

How did the two women know each other?

They didn’t really know each other. A. A., who was hosting Assange and was serving as his press secretary, had met S. W. at an event where S. W. was wearing a pink cashmere sweater. She apparently knew from Assange that he was interested in a sexual encounter with S. W., because one evening, she received a text message from an acquaintance saying that he knew Assange was staying with her and that he, the acquaintance, would like to contact Assange. A. A. answered: Assange is apparently sleeping at the moment with the “cashmere girl.” The next morning, S. W. spoke with A. A. on the phone and said that she, too, had slept with Assange and was now concerned about having become infected with HIV. This concern was apparently a real one, because S.W. even went to a clinic for consultation. A. A. then suggested: Let’s go to the police – they can force Assange to get an HIV test. The two women, though, didn’t go to the closest police station, but to one quite far away where a friend of A. A.’s works as a policewoman – who then questioned S. W., initially in the presence of A. A., which isn’t proper practice. Up to this point, though, the only problem was at most a lack of professionalism. The willful malevolence of the authorities only became apparent when they immediately disseminated the suspicion of rape via the tabloid press, and did so without questioning A. A. and in contradiction to the statement given by S. W. It also violated a clear ban in Swedish law against releasing the names of alleged victims or perpetrators in sexual offense cases. The case now came to the attention of the chief public prosecutor in the capital city and she suspended the rape investigation some days later with the assessment that while the statements from S. W. were credible, there was no evidence that a crime had been committed.

But then the case really took off. Why?

Now the supervisor of the policewoman who had conducted the questioning wrote her an email telling her to rewrite the statement from S. W.

What did the policewoman change?

We don’t know, because the first statement was directly written over in the computer program and no longer exists. We only know that the original statement, according to the chief public prosecutor, apparently did not contain any indication that a crime had been committed. In the edited form it says that the two had had sex several times – consensual and with a condom. But in the morning, according to the revised statement, the woman woke up because he tried to penetrate her without a condom. She asks: «Are you wearing a condom?» He says: «No.» Then she says: «You better not have HIV» and allows him to continue. The statement was edited without the involvement of the woman in question and it wasn’t signed by her. It is a manipulated piece of evidence out of which the Swedish authorities then constructed a story of rape.

Why would the Swedish authorities do something like that?

The timing is decisive: In late July, Wikileaks – in cooperation with the «New York Times», the «Guardian» and «Der Spiegel» – published the «Afghan War Diary». It was one of the largest leaks in the history of the U.S. military. The U.S. immediately demanded that its allies inundate Assange with criminal cases. We aren’t familiar with all of the correspondence, but Stratfor, a security consultancy that works for the U.S. government, advised American officials apparently to deluge Assange with all kinds of criminal cases for the next 25 years.

2. Assange contacts the Swedish judiciary several times to make a statement – but he is turned down

Why didn’t Assange turn himself into the police at the time?

He did. I mentioned that earlier.

Then please elaborate.

Assange learned about the rape allegations from the press. He established contact with the police so he could make a statement. Despite the scandal having reached the public, he was only allowed to do so nine days later, after the accusation that he had raped S. W. was no longer being pursued. But proceedings related to the sexual harassment of A. A. were ongoing. On Aug. 30, 2010, Assange appeared at the police station to make a statement. He was questioned by the same policeman who had since ordered that revision of the statement had been given by S. W. At the beginning of the conversation, Assange said he was ready to make a statement, but added that he didn’t want to read about his statement again in the press. That is his right, and he was given assurances it would be granted. But that same evening, everything was in the newspapers again. It could only have come from the authorities because nobody else was present during his questioning. The intention was very clearly that of besmirching his name.

Where did the story come from that Assange was seeking to avoid Swedish justice officials?

This version was manufactured, but it is not consistent with the facts. Had he been trying to hide, he would not have appeared at the police station of his own free will. On the basis of the revised statement from S.W., an appeal was filed against the public prosecutor’s attempt to suspend the investigation, and on Sept. 2, 2010, the rape proceedings were resumed. A legal representative by the name of Claes Borgström was appointed to the two women at public cost. The man was a law firm partner to the previous justice minister, Thomas Bodström, under whose supervision Swedish security personnel had seized two men who the U.S. found suspicious in the middle of Stockholm. The men were seized without any kind of legal proceedings and then handed over to the CIA, who proceeded to torture them. That shows the trans-Atlantic backdrop to this affair more clearly. After the resumption of the rape investigation, Assange repeatedly indicated through his lawyer that he wished to respond to the accusations. The public prosecutor responsible kept delaying. On one occasion, it didn’t fit with the public prosecutor’s schedule, on another, the police official responsible was sick. Three weeks later, his lawyer finally wrote that Assange really had to go to Berlin for a conference and asked if he was allowed to leave the country. The public prosecutor’s office gave him written permission to leave Sweden for short periods of time.

And then?

The point is: On the day that Julian Assange left Sweden, at a point in time when it wasn’t clear if he was leaving for a short time or a long time, a warrant was issued for his arrest. He flew with Scandinavian Airlines from Stockholm to Berlin. During the flight, his laptops disappeared from his checked baggage. When he arrived in Berlin, Lufthansa requested an investigation from SAS, but the airline apparently declined to provide any information at all.

Why?

That is exactly the problem. In this case, things are constantly happening that shouldn’t actually be possible unless you look at them from a different angle. Assange, in any case, continued onward to London, but did not seek to hide from the judiciary. Via his Swedish lawyer, he offered public prosecutors several possible dates for questioning in Sweden – this correspondence exists. Then, the following happened: Assange caught wind of the fact that a secret criminal case had been opened against him in the U.S. At the time, it was not confirmed by the U.S., but today we know that it was true. As of that moment, Assange’s lawyer began saying that his client was prepared to testify in Sweden, but he demanded diplomatic assurance that Sweden would not extradite him to the U.S.

Was that even a realistic scenario?

Absolutely. Some years previously, as I already mentioned, Swedish security personnel had handed over two asylum applicants, both of whom were registered in Sweden, to the CIA without any legal proceedings. The abuse already started at the Stockholm airport, where they were mistreated, drugged and flown to Egypt, where they were tortured. We don’t know if they were the only such cases. But we are aware of these cases because the men survived. Both later filed complaints with UN human rights agencies and won their case. Sweden was forced to pay each of them half a million dollars in damages.

Did Sweden agree to the demands submitted by Assange?

The lawyers say that during the nearly seven years in which Assange lived in the Ecuadorian Embassy, they made over 30 offers to arrange for Assange to visit Sweden – in exchange for a guarantee that he would not be extradited to the U.S. The Swedes declined to provide such a guarantee by arguing that the U.S. had not made a formal request for extradition.

What is your view of the demand made by Assange’s lawyers?

Such diplomatic assurances are a routine international practice. People request assurances that they won’t be extradited to places where there is a danger of serious human rights violations, completely irrespective of whether an extradition request has been filed by the country in question or not. It is a political procedure, not a legal one. Here’s an example: Say France demands that Switzerland extradite a Kazakh businessman who lives in Switzerland but who is wanted by both France and Kazakhstan on tax fraud allegations. Switzerland sees no danger of torture in France, but does believe such a danger exists in Kazakhstan. So, Switzerland tells France: We’ll extradite the man to you, but we want a diplomatic assurance that he won’t be extradited onward to Kazakhstan. The French response is not: «Kazakhstan hasn’t even filed a request!» Rather, they would, of course, grant such an assurance. The arguments coming from Sweden were tenuous at best. That is one part of it. The other, and I say this on the strength of all of my experience behind the scenes of standard international practice: If a country refuses to provide such a diplomatic assurance, then all doubts about the good intentions of the country in question are justified. Why shouldn’t Sweden provide such assurances? From a legal perspective, after all, the U.S. has absolutely nothing to do with Swedish sex offense proceedings.

Why didn’t Sweden want to offer such an assurance?

You just have to look at how the case was run: For Sweden, it was never about the interests of the two women. Even after his request for assurances that he would not be extradited, Assange still wanted to testify. He said: If you cannot guarantee that I won’t be extradited, then I am willing to be questioned in London or via video link.

But is it normal, or even legally acceptable, for Swedish authorities to travel to a different country for such an interrogation?

That is a further indication that Sweden was never interested in finding the truth. For exactly these kinds of judiciary issues, there is a cooperation treaty between the United Kingdom and Sweden, which foresees that Swedish officials can travel to the UK, or vice versa, to conduct interrogations or that such questioning can take place via video link. During the period of time in question, such questioning between Sweden and England took place in 44 other cases. It was only in Julian Assange’s case that Sweden insisted that it was essential for him to appear in person.

3. When the highest Swedish court finally forced public prosecutors in Stockholm to either file charges or suspend the case, the British authorities demanded: “Don’t get cold feet!!”

Why was that?

There is only a single explanation for everything – for the refusal to grant diplomatic assurances, for the refusal to question him in London: They wanted to apprehend him so they could extradite him to the U.S. The number of breaches of law that accumulated in Sweden within just a few weeks during the preliminary criminal investigation is simply grotesque. The state assigned a legal adviser to the women who told them that the criminal interpretation of what they experienced was up to the state, and no longer up to them. When their legal adviser was asked about contradictions between the women’s testimony and the narrative adhered to by public officials, the legal adviser said, in reference to the women: «ah, but they’re not lawyers.» But for five long years the Swedish prosecution avoids questioning Assange regarding the purported rape, until his lawyers finally petitioned Sweden’s Supreme Court to force the public prosecution to either press charges or close the case. When the Swedes told the UK that they may be forced to abandon the case, the British wrote back, worriedly: «Don’t you dare get cold feet!!»

Are you serious?

Yes, the British, or more specifically the Crown Prosecution Service, wanted to prevent Sweden from abandoning the case at all costs. Though really, the English should have been happy that they would no longer have to spend millions in taxpayer money to keep the Ecuadorian Embassy under constant surveillance to prevent Assange’s escape.

Why were the British so eager to prevent the Swedes from closing the case?

We have to stop believing that there was really an interest in leading an investigation into a sexual offense. What Wikileaks did is a threat to the political elite in the U.S., Britain, France and Russia in equal measure. Wikileaks publishes secret state information – they are opposed to classification. And in a world, even in so-called mature democracies, where secrecy has become rampant, that is seen as a fundamental threat. Assange made it clear that countries are no longer interested today in legitimate confidentiality, but in the suppression of important information about corruption and crimes. Take the archetypal Wikileaks case from the leaks supplied by Chelsea Manning: The so-called «Collateral Murder» video. (Eds. Note: On April 5, 2010, Wikileaks published a classified video from the U.S. military which showed the murder of several people in Baghdad by U.S. soldiers, including two employees of the news agency Reuters.) As a long-time legal adviser to the International Committee of the Red Cross and delegate in war zones, I can tell you: The video undoubtedly documents a war crime. A helicopter crew simply mowed down a bunch of people. It could even be that one or two of these people was carrying a weapon, but injured people were intentionally targeted. That is a war crime. «He’s wounded,» you can hear one American saying. «I’m firing.» And then they laugh. Then a van drives up to save the wounded. The driver has two children with him. You can hear the soldiers say: Well it’s their fault for bringing their kids into a battle. And then they open fire. The father and the wounded are immediately killed, though the children survive with serious injuries. Through the publication of the video, we became direct witnesses to a criminal, unconscionable massacre.

What should a constitutional democracy do in such a situation?

A constitutional democracy would probably investigate Chelsea Manning for violating official secrecy because she passed the video along to Assange. But it certainly wouldn’t go after Assange, because he published the video in the public interest, consistent with the practices of classic investigative journalism. More than anything, though, a constitutional democracy would investigate and punish the war criminals. These soldiers belong behind bars. But no criminal investigation was launched into a single one of them. Instead, the man who informed the public is locked away in pre-extradition detention in London and is facing a possible sentence in the U.S. of up to 175 years in prison. That is a completely absurd sentence. By comparison: The main war criminals in the Yugoslavia tribunal received sentences of 45 years. One-hundred-seventy-five years in prison in conditions that have been found to be inhumane by the UN Special Rapporteur and by Amnesty International. But the really horrifying thing about this case is the lawlessness that has developed: The powerful can kill without fear of punishment and journalism is transformed into espionage. It is becoming a crime to tell the truth.

What awaits Assange once he is extradited?

He will not receive a trial consistent with the rule of law. That’s another reason why his extradition shouldn’t be allowed. Assange will receive a trial-by-jury in Alexandria, Virginia – the notorious «Espionage Court» where the U.S. tries all national security cases. The choice of location is not by coincidence, because the jury members must be chosen in proportion to the local population, and 85 percent of Alexandria residents work in the national security community – at the CIA, the NSA, the Defense Department and the State Department. When people are tried for harming national security in front of a jury like that, the verdict is clear from the very beginning. The cases are always tried in front of the same judge behind closed doors and on the strength of classified evidence. Nobody has ever been acquitted there in a case like that. The result being that most defendants reach a settlement, in which they admit to partial guilt so as to receive a milder sentence.

You are saying that Julian Assange won’t receive a fair trial in the United States?

Without doubt. For as long as employees of the American government obey the orders of their superiors, they can participate in wars of aggression, war crimes and torture knowing full well that they will never have to answer to their actions. What happened to the lessons learned in the Nuremberg Trials? I have worked long enough in conflict zones to know that mistakes happen in war. It’s not always unscrupulous criminal acts. A lot of it is the result of stress, exhaustion and panic. That’s why I can absolutely understand when a government says: We’ll bring the truth to light and we, as a state, take full responsibility for the harm caused, but if blame cannot be directly assigned to individuals, we will not be imposing draconian punishments. But it is extremely dangerous when the truth is suppressed and criminals are not brought to justice. In the 1930s, Germany and Japan left the League of Nations. Fifteen years later, the world lay in ruins. Today, the U.S. has withdrawn from the UN Human Rights Council, and neither the «Collateral Murder» massacre nor the CIA torture following 9/11 nor the war of aggression against Iraq have led to criminal investigations. Now, the United Kingdom is following that example. The Security and Intelligence Committee in the country’s own parliament published two extensive reports in 2018 showing that Britain was much more deeply involved in the secret CIA torture program than previously believed. The committee recommended a formal investigation. The first thing that Boris Johnson did after he became prime minister was to annul that investigation.

4. In the UK, violations of bail conditions are generally only punished with monetary fines or, at most, a couple of days behind bars. But Assange was given 50 weeks in a maximum-security prison without the ability to prepare his own defense

In April, Julian Assange was dragged out of the Ecuadorian Embassy by British police. What is your view of these events?

In 2017, a new government was elected in Ecuador. In response, the U.S. wrote a letter indicating they were eager to cooperate with Ecuador. There was, of course, a lot of money at stake, but there was one hurdle in the way: Julian Assange. The message was that the U.S. was prepared to cooperate if Ecuador handed Assange over to the U.S. At that point, the Ecuadorian Embassy began ratcheting up the pressure on Assange. They made his life difficult. But he stayed. Then Ecuador voided his amnesty and gave Britain a green light to arrest him. Because the previous government had granted him Ecuadorian citizenship, Assange’s passport also had to be revoked, because the Ecuadorian constitution forbids the extradition of its own citizens. All that took place overnight and without any legal proceedings. Assange had no opportunity to make a statement or have recourse to legal remedy. He was arrested by the British and taken before a British judge that same day, who convicted him of violating his bail.

What do you make of this accelerated verdict?

Assange only had 15 minutes to prepare with his lawyer. The trial itself also lasted just 15 minutes. Assange’s lawyer plopped a thick file down on the table and made a formal objection to one of the judges for conflict of interest because her husband had been the subject of Wikileaks exposures in 35 instances. But the lead judge brushed aside the concerns without examining them further. He said accusing his colleague of a conflict of interest was an affront. Assange himself only uttered one sentence during the entire proceedings: «I plead not guilty.» The judge turned to him and said: «You are a narcissist who cannot get beyond his own self-interest. I convict you for bail violation.»

If I understand you correctly: Julian Assange never had a chance from the very beginning?

That’s the point. I’m not saying Julian Assange is an angel or a hero. But he doesn’t have to be. We are talking about human rights and not about the rights of heroes or angels. Assange is a person, and he has the right to defend himself and to be treated in a humane manner. Regardless of what he is accused of, Assange has the right to a fair trial. But he has been deliberately denied that right – in Sweden, the U.S., Britain and Ecuador. Instead, he was left to rot for nearly seven years in limbo in a room. Then, he was suddenly dragged out and convicted within hours and without any preparation for a bail violation that consisted of him having received diplomatic asylum from another UN member state on the basis of political persecution, just as international law intends and just as countless Chinese, Russian and other dissidents have done in Western embassies. It is obvious that what we are dealing with here is political persecution. In Britain, bail violations seldom lead to prison sentences – they are generally subject only to fines. Assange, by contrast, was sentenced in summary proceedings to 50 weeks in a maximum-security prison – clearly a disproportionate penalty that had only a single purpose: Holding Assange long enough for the U.S. to prepare their espionage case against him.

As the UN Special Rapporteur on Torture, what do you have to say about his current conditions of imprisonment?

Britain has denied Julian Assange contact with his lawyers in the U.S., where he is the subject of secret proceedings. His British lawyer has also complained that she hasn’t even had sufficient access to her client to go over court documents and evidence with him. Into October, he was not allowed to have a single document from his case file with him in his cell. He was denied his fundamental right to prepare his own defense, as guaranteed by the European Convention on Human Rights. On top of that is the almost total solitary confinement and the totally disproportionate punishment for a bail violation. As soon as he would leave his cell, the corridors were emptied to prevent him from having contact with any other inmates.

And all that because of a simple bail violation? At what point does imprisonment become torture?

Julian Assange has been intentionally psychologically tortured by Sweden, Britain, Ecuador and the U.S. First through the highly arbitrary handling of proceedings against him. The way Sweden pursued the case, with active assistance from Britain, was aimed at putting him under pressure and trapping him in the embassy. Sweden was never interested in finding the truth and helping these women, but in pushing Assange into a corner. It has been an abuse of judicial processes aimed at pushing a person into a position where he is unable to defend himself. On top of that come the surveillance measures, the insults, the indignities and the attacks by politicians from these countries, up to and including death threats. This constant abuse of state power has triggered serious stress and anxiety in Assange and has resulted in measurable cognitive and neurological harm. I visited Assange in his cell in London in May 2019 together with two experienced, widely respected doctors who are specialized in the forensic and psychological examination of torture victims. The diagnosis arrived at by the two doctors was clear: Julian Assange displays the typical symptoms of psychological torture. If he doesn’t receive protection soon, a rapid deterioration of his health is likely, and death could be one outcome.

Half a year after Assange was placed in pre-extradition detention in Britain, Sweden quietly abandoned the case against him in November 2019, after nine long years. Why then?

The Swedish state spent almost a decade intentionally presenting Julian Assange to the public as a sex offender. Then, they suddenly abandoned the case against him on the strength of the same argument that the first Stockholm prosecutor used in 2010, when she initially suspended the investigation after just five days: While the woman’s statement was credible, there was no proof that a crime had been committed. It is an unbelievable scandal. But the timing was no accident. On Nov. 11, an official document that I had sent to the Swedish government two months before was made public. In the document, I made a request to the Swedish government to provide explanations for around 50 points pertaining to the human rights implications of the way they were handling the case. How is it possible that the press was immediately informed despite the prohibition against doing so? How is it possible that a suspicion was made public even though the questioning hadn’t yet taken place? How is it possible for you to say that a rape occurred even though the woman involved contests that version of events? On the day the document was made public, I received a paltry response from Sweden: The government has no further comment on this case.

What does that answer mean?

It is an admission of guilt.

How so?

As UN Special Rapporteur, I have been tasked by the international community of nations with looking into complaints lodged by victims of torture and, if necessary, with requesting explanations or investigations from governments. That is the daily work I do with all UN member states. From my experience, I can say that countries that act in good faith are almost always interested in supplying me with the answers I need to highlight the legality of their behavior. When a country like Sweden declines to answer questions submitted by the UN Special Rapporteur on Torture, it shows that the government is aware of the illegality of its behavior and wants to take no responsibility for its behavior. They pulled the plug and abandoned the case a week later because they knew I would not back down. When countries like Sweden allow themselves to be manipulated like that, then our democracies and our human rights face a fundamental threat.

You believe that Sweden was fully aware of what it was doing?

Yes. From my perspective, Sweden very clearly acted in bad faith. Had they acted in good faith, there would have been no reason to refuse to answer my questions. The same holds true for the British: Following my visit to Assange in May 2019, they took six months to answer me – in a single-page letter, which was primarily limited to rejecting all accusations of torture and all inconsistencies in the legal proceedings. If you’re going to play games like that, then what’s the point of my mandate? I am the Special Rapporteur on Torture for the United Nations. I have a mandate to ask clear questions and to demand answers. What is the legal basis for denying someone their fundamental right to defend themselves? Why is a man who is neither dangerous nor violent held in solitary confinement for several months when UN standards legally prohibit solitary confinement for periods extending beyond 15 days? None of these UN member states launched an investigation, nor did they answer my questions or even demonstrate an interest in dialogue.

5. A prison sentence of 175 years for investigative journalism: The precedent the USA vs. Julian Assange case could set

What does it mean when UN member states refuse to provide information to their own Special Rapporteur on Torture?

That it is a prearranged affair. A show trial is to be used to make an example of Julian Assange. The point is to intimidate other journalists. Intimidation, by the way, is one of the primary purposes for the use of torture around the world. The message to all of us is: This is what will happen to you if you emulate the Wikileaks model. It is a model that is so dangerous because it is so simple: People who obtain sensitive information from their governments or companies transfer that information to Wikileaks, but the whistleblower remains anonymous. The reaction shows how great the threat is perceived to be: Four democratic countries joined forces – the U.S., Ecuador, Sweden and the UK – to leverage their power to portray one man as a monster so that he could later be burned at the stake without any outcry. The case is a huge scandal and represents the failure of Western rule of law. If Julian Assange is convicted, it will be a death sentence for freedom of the press.

What would this possible precedent mean for the future of journalism?

On a practical level, it means that you, as a journalist, must now defend yourself. Because if investigative journalism is classified as espionage and can be incriminated around the world, then censorship and tyranny will follow. A murderous system is being created before our very eyes. War crimes and torture are not being prosecuted. YouTube videos are circulating in which American soldiers brag about driving Iraqi women to suicide with systematic rape. Nobody is investigating it. At the same time, a person who exposes such things is being threatened with 175 years in prison. For an entire decade, he has been inundated with accusations that cannot be proven and are breaking him. And nobody is being held accountable. Nobody is taking responsibility. It marks an erosion of the social contract. We give countries power and delegate it to governments – but in return, they must be held accountable for how they exercise that power. If we don’t demand that they be held accountable, we will lose our rights sooner or later. Humans are not democratic by their nature. Power corrupts if it is not monitored. Corruption is the result if we do not insist that power be monitored.

You’re saying that the targeting of Assange threatens the very core of press freedoms.

Let’s see where we will be in 20 years if Assange is convicted – what you will still be able to write then as a journalist. I am convinced that we are in serious danger of losing press freedoms. It’s already happening: Suddenly, the headquarters of ABC News in Australia was raided in connection with the «Afghan War Diary». The reason? Once again, the press uncovered misconduct by representatives of the state. In order for the division of powers to work, the state must be monitored by the press as the fourth estate. WikiLeaks is a the logical consequence of an ongoing process of expanded secrecy: If the truth can no longer be examined because everything is kept secret, if investigation reports on the U.S. government’s torture policy are kept secret and when even large sections of the published summary are redacted, leaks are at some point inevitably the result. WikiLeaks is the consequence of rampant secrecy and reflects the lack of transparency in our modern political system. There are, of course, areas where secrecy can be vital. But if we no longer know what our governments are doing and the criteria they are following, if crimes are no longer being investigated, then it represents a grave danger to societal integrity.

What are the consequences?

As the UN Special Rapporteur on Torture and, before that, as a Red Cross delegate, I have seen lots of horrors and violence and have seen how quickly peaceful countries like Yugoslavia or Rwanda can transform into infernos. At the roots of such developments are always a lack of transparency and unbridled political or economic power combined with the naivete, indifference and malleability of the population. Suddenly, that which always happened to the other – unpunished torture, rape, expulsion and murder – can just as easily happen to us or our children. And nobody will care. I can promise you that.

18’826 Menschen machen die Republik heute schon möglich. Wollen auch Sie, dass die noch junge Republik weiterhin unabhängigen, transparenten Journalismus betreiben kann? Dann kommen Sie als Mitglied oder Abonnentin an Bord!

In early March, an estimated 7,500 American combat troops will travel to Norway to join thousands of soldiers from other NATO countries in a massive mock battle with imagined invading forces from Russia. In this futuristic simulated engagement — it goes by the name of Exercise Cold Response 2020 — allied forces will “conduct multinational joint exercises with a high-intensity combat scenario in demanding winter conditions,” or so claims the Norwegian military anyway. At first glance, this may look like any other NATO training exercise, but think again. There’s nothing ordinary about Cold Response 2020. As a start, it’s being staged above the Arctic Circle, far from any previous traditional NATO battlefield, and it raises to a new level the possibility of a great-power conflict that might end in a nuclear exchange and mutual annihilation. Welcome, in other words, to World War III’s newest battlefield.

For the soldiers participating in the exercise, the potentially thermonuclear dimensions of Cold Response 2020 may not be obvious. At its start, Marines from the United States and the United Kingdom will practice massive amphibious landings along Norway’s coastline, much as they do in similar exercises elsewhere in the world. Once ashore, however, the scenario becomes ever more distinctive. After collecting tanks and other heavy weaponry “prepositioned” in caves in Norway’s interior, the Marines will proceed toward the country’s far-northern Finnmark region to help Norwegian forces stave off Russian forces supposedly pouring across the border. From then on, the two sides will engage in — to use current Pentagon terminology — high-intensity combat operations under Arctic conditions (a type of warfare not seen on such a scale since World War II).

And that’s just the beginning. Unbeknownst to most Americans, the Finnmark region of Norway and adjacent Russian territory have become one of the most likely battlegrounds for the first use of nuclear weapons in any future NATO-Russian conflict. Because Moscow has concentrated a significant part of its nuclear retaliatory capability on the Kola Peninsula, a remote stretch of land abutting northern Norway — any U.S.-NATO success in actual combat with Russian forces near that territory would endanger a significant part of Russia’s nuclear arsenal and so might precipitate the early use of such munitions. Even a simulated victory — the predictable result of Cold Response 2020 — will undoubtedly set Russia’s nuclear controllers on edge.

To appreciate just how risky any NATO-Russian clash in Norway’s far north would be, consider the region’s geography and the strategic factors that have led Russia to concentrate so much military power there. And all of this, by the way, will be playing out in the context of another existential danger: climate change. The melting of the Arctic ice cap and the accelerated exploitation of Arctic resources are lending this area ever greater strategic significance.

Energy Extraction in the Far North

Look at any map of Europe and you’ll note that Scandinavia widens as it heads southward into the most heavily populated parts of Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. As you head north, however, it narrows and becomes ever less populated. At its extreme northern reaches, only a thin band of Norway juts east to touch Russia’s Kola Peninsula. To the north, the Barents Sea, an offshoot of the Arctic Ocean, bounds them both. This remote region — approximately 800 miles from Oslo and 900 miles from Moscow — has, in recent years, become a vortex of economic and military activity.

Once prized as a source of vital minerals, especially nickel, iron ore, and phosphates, this remote area is now the center of extensive oil and natural gas extraction. With temperatures rising in the Arctic twice as fast as anywhere else on the planet and sea ice retreating ever farther north every year, offshore fossil-fuel exploration has become increasingly viable. As a result, large reserves of oil and natural gas — the very fuels whose combustion is responsible for those rising temperatures — have been discovered beneath the Barents Sea and both countries are seeking to exploit those deposits. Norway has taken the lead, establishing at Hammerfest in Finnmark the world’s first plant above the Arctic Circle to export liquified natural gas. In a similar fashion, Russia has initiated efforts to exploit the mammoth Shtokman gas field in its sector of the Barents Sea, though it has yet to bring such plans to fruition.

For Russia, even more significant oil and gas prospects lie further east in the Kara and Pechora Seas and on the Yamal Peninsula, a slender extension of Siberia. Its energy companies have, in fact, already begunproducing oil at the Prirazlomnoye field in the Pechora Sea and the Novoportovskoye field on that peninsula (and natural gas there as well). Such fields hold great promise for Russia, which exhibits all the characteristics of a petro-state, but there’s one huge problem: the only practical way to get that output to market is via specially-designed icebreaker-tankers sent through the Barents Sea past northern Norway.

The exploitation of Arctic oil and gas resources and their transport to markets in Europe and Asia has become a major economic priority for Moscow as its hydrocarbon reserves below the Arctic Circle begin to dry up. Despite calls at home for greater economic diversity, President Vladimir Putin’s regime continues to insist on the centrality of hydrocarbon production to the country’s economic future. In that context, production in the Arctic has become an essential national objective, which, in turn, requires assured access to the Atlantic Ocean via the Barents Sea and Norway’s offshore waters. Think of that waterway as vital to Russia’s energy economy in the way the Strait of Hormuz, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean, is to the Saudis and other regional fossil-fuel producers.

The Military Dimension

No less than Russia’s giant energy firms, its navy must be able to enter the Atlantic via the Barents Sea and northern Norway. Aside from its Baltic and Black Sea ports, accessible to the Atlantic only via passageways easily obstructed by NATO, the sole Russian harbor with unfettered access to the Atlantic Ocean is at Murmansk on the Kola Peninsula. Not surprisingly then, that port is also the headquarters for Russia’s Northern Fleet — its most powerful — and the site of numerous air, infantry, missile, and radar bases along with naval shipyards and nuclear reactors. In other words, it’s among the most sensitive military regions in Russia today.

Given all this, President Putin has substantially rebuilt that very fleet, which fell into disrepair after the collapse of the Soviet Union, equipping it with some of the country’s most advanced warships. In 2018, according to The Military Balance, a publication of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, it already possessed the largest number of modern cruisers and destroyers (10) of any Russian fleet, along with 22 attack submarines and numerous support vessels. Also in the Murmansk area are dozens of advanced MiG fighter planes and a wide assortment of anti-aircraft defense systems. Finally, as 2019 ended, Russian military officials indicated for the first time that they had deployed to the Arctic the Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile, a weapon capable of hypersonic velocities (more than five times the speed of sound), again presumably to a base in the Murmansk region just 125 miles from Norway’s Finnmark, the site of the upcoming NATO exercise.

More significant yet is the way Moscow has been strengthening its nuclear forces in the region. Like the United States, Russia maintains a “triad” of nuclear delivery systems, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), long-range “heavy” bombers, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). Under the terms of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), signed by the two countries in 2010, the Russians can deploy no more than 700 delivery systems capable of carrying no more than 1,550 warheads. (That pact will, however, expire in February 2021 unless the two sides agree to an extension, which appears increasingly unlikely in the age of Trump.) According to the Arms Control Association, the Russians are currently believed to be deploying the warheads they are allowed under New START on 66 heavy bombers, 286 ICBMs, and 12 submarines with 160 SLBMs. Eight of those nuclear-armed subs are, in fact, assigned to the Northern Fleet, which means about 110 missiles with as many as 500 warheads — the exact numbers remain shrouded in secrecy — are deployed in the Murmansk area.

For Russian nuclear strategists, such nuclear-armed submarines are considered the most “survivable” of the country’s retaliatory systems. In the event of a nuclear exchange with the United States, the country’s heavy bombers and ICBMs could prove relatively vulnerable to pre-emptive strikes as their locations are known and can be targeted by American bombs and missiles with near-pinpoint accuracy. Those subs, however, can leave Murmansk and disappear into the wide Atlantic Ocean at the onset of any crisis and so presumably remain hidden from U.S. spying eyes. To do so, however, requires that they pass through the Barents Sea, avoiding the NATO forces lurking nearby. For Moscow, in other words, the very possibility of deterring a U.S. nuclear strike hinges on its ability to defend its naval stronghold in Murmansk, while maneuvering its submarines past Norway’s Finnmark region. No wonder, then, that this area has assumed enormous strategic importance for Russian military planners — and the upcoming Cold Response 2020 is sure to prove challenging to them.

Washington’s Arctic Buildup

During the Cold War era, Washington viewed the Arctic as a significant strategic arena and constructed a string of military bases across the region. Their main aim: to intercept Soviet bombers and missiles crossing the North Pole on their way to targets in North America. After the Soviet Union imploded in 1991, Washington abandoned many of those bases. Now, however, with the Pentagon once again identifying “great power competition” with Russia and China as the defining characteristic of the present strategic environment, many of those bases are being reoccupied and new ones established. Once again, the Arctic is being viewed as a potential site of conflict with Russia and, as a result, U.S. forces are being readied for possible combat there.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was the first official to explain this new strategic outlook at the Arctic Forum in Finland last May. In his address, a kind of “Pompeo Doctrine,” he indicated that the United States was shifting from benign neglect of the region to aggressive involvement and militarization. “We’re entering a new age of strategic engagement in the Arctic,” he insisted, “complete with new threats to the Arctic and its real estate, and to all of our interests in that region.” To better protect those interests against Russia’s military buildup there, “we are fortifying America’s security and diplomatic presence in the area… hosting military exercises, strengthening our force presence, rebuilding our icebreaker fleet, expanding Coast Guard funding, and creating a new senior military post for Arctic Affairs inside of our own military.”

The Pentagon has been unwilling to provide many details, but a close reading of the military press suggests that this activity has been particularly focused on northern Norway and adjacent waters. To begin with, the Marine Corps has established a permanent presence in that country, the first time foreign forces have been stationed there since German troops occupied it during World War II. A detachment of about 330 Marines were initially deployednear the port of Trondheim in 2017, presumably to help guard nearby caves that contain hundreds of U.S. tanks and combat vehicles. Two years later, a similarly sized group was then dispatched to the Troms region above the Arctic Circle and far closer to the Russian border.

From the Russian perspective, even more threatening is the construction of a U.S. radar station on the Norwegian island of Vardø about 40 miles from the Kola Peninsula. To be operated in conjunction with the Norwegian intelligence service, the focus of the facility will evidently be to snoop on those Russian missile-carrying submarines, assumedly in order to target them and take them out in the earliest stages of any conflict. That Moscow fears just such an outcome is evident from the mock attack it staged on the Vardø facility in 2018, sending 11 Su-24 supersonic bombers on a direct path toward the island. (They turned aside at the last moment.) It has also moved a surface-to-surface missile battery to a spot just 40 miles from Vardø.

In addition, in August 2018, the U.S. Navy decided to reactivate the previously decommissioned Second Fleet in the North Atlantic. “A new Second Fleet increases our strategic flexibility to respond — from the Eastern Seaboard to the Barents Sea,” said Chief of Naval Operations John Richardson at the time. As last year ended, that fleet was declared fully operational.

Deciphering Cold Response 2020

Exercise Cold Response 2020 must be viewed in the context of all these developments. Few details about the thinking behind the upcoming war games have been made public, but it’s not hard to imagine what at least part of the scenario might be like: a U.S.-Russian clash of some sort leading to Russian attacks aimed at seizing that radar station at Vardø and Norway’s defense headquarters at Bodø on the country’s northwestern coast. The invading troops will be slowed but not stopped by Norwegian forces (and those U.S. Marines stationed in the area), while thousands of reinforcements from NATO bases elsewhere in Europe begin to pour in. Eventually, of course, the tide will turn and the Russians will be forced back.

No matter what the official scenario is like, however, for Pentagon planners the situation will go far beyond this. Any Russian assault on critical Norwegian military facilities would presumably be preceded by intense air and missile bombardment and the forward deployment of major naval vessels. This, in turn, would prompt comparable moves by the U.S. and NATO, probably resulting in violent encounters and the loss of major assets on all sides. In the process, Russia’s key nuclear retaliatory forces would be at risk and quickly placed on high alert with senior officers operating in hair-trigger mode. Any misstep might then lead to what humanity has feared since August 1945: a nuclear apocalypse on Planet Earth.

There is no way to know to what degree such considerations are incorporated into the classified versions of the Cold Response 2020 scenario, but it’s unlikely that they’re missing. Indeed, a 2016 version of the exercise involved the participation of three B-52 nuclear bombers from the U.S. Strategic Air Command, indicating that the American military is keenly aware of the escalatory risks of any large-scale U.S.-Russian encounter in the Arctic.

In short, what might otherwise seem like a routine training exercise in a distant part of the world is actually part of an emerging U.S. strategy to overpower Russia in a critical defensive zone, an approach that could easily result in nuclear war. The Russians are, of course, well aware of this and so will undoubtedly be watching Cold Response 2020 with genuine trepidation. Their fears are understandable — but we should all be concerned about a strategy that seemingly embodies such a high risk of future escalation.

Ever since the Soviets acquired nuclear weapons of their own in 1949, strategists have wondered how and where an all-out nuclear war — World War III — would break out. At one time, that incendiary scenario was believed most likely to involve a clash over the divided city of Berlin or along the East-West border in Germany. After the Cold War, however, fears of such a deadly encounter evaporated and few gave much thought to such possibilities. Looking forward today, however, the prospect of a catastrophic World War III is again becoming all too imaginable and this time, it appears, an incident in the Arctic could prove the spark for Armageddon.

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Michael T. Klare, a TomDispatch regular, is the five-college professor emeritus of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College and a senior visiting fellow at the Arms Control Association. He is the author of 15 books, including the just-published All Hell Breaking Loose: The Pentagon’s Perspective on Climate Change (Metropolitan Books), on which this article is based.

Being a Democrat—Ugh

February 10th, 2020 by Barbara Nimri Aziz

 Notwithstanding the impotent Senate Minority. Not those ill-fated bills championed as victories by House Democrats only to be spurned by the upper chamber; not smug, elitist party fundraisers; not funding strategists and millionaire celebrity donors; not even bumbling Iowa Democratic party officials.

I mean this forlorn orphaned democrat—me. A registered party member who every two years pens as few op-eds, who sends a check to a favorite candidate, who puts in volunteer hours to GOTV (Get Out The Vote), and wholeheartedly campaigns for any Democratic candidate whom she believes is honest and competent.

I don’t need to add to today’s punditry and partisan analyses spinning through media, much of it self-serving. And I eschewed the wondrous humor of SLN or Stephen Colbert following last week’s dizzying post-impeachment-trial-post-State-of-the-Union-post-Iowa-caucus.

Put aside the shortsightedness of our overrated “founding fathers” and the ugliness of America’s current president. Put aside the deepening cultural war.

I have a simple personal question: What am I, voter and local activist, to do now? By June, county committees and ad hoc citizen groups will begin training to prepare for the canvassing and fundraising that’s precedes every November election. A lot is at stake; even at county and state levels, enthusiasm and commitment are essential.

For the first time in decades I’m not sure I want to continue. How can I go to college events to urge our young voters to engage in American democracy by embracing this party? How can I solicit funds for a candidate? How can I try to persuade the “undecided”– that burgeoning population of marginalized and disenchanted voters– to commit to a Democratic candidate? These unaffiliated citizens, we are told, are critical to  an election’s outcome. One friend, who when I shared my dismay over last week’s events, replied simply: “In this era, democracy requires repose.”

Oh dear. If repose is the answer, democracy’s not working.

Forget about the disgusting, shamelessly victorious Trump and his gloating Republican party for a moment. Don’t mollify us by theorizing who’ll be on history’s side. (Let history take care of that.) What are we going to do about a corrupt mealy-mouthed Democratic party? Why did Mrs. Pelosi extend her hand to Trump before his address to the nation? Would you have? And tearing up the speech after she’d applauded Trump’s statements several times? Better to walk out. Decorum be damned– Trump’s words themselves demonstrate that.

What about our other congressional leader, the Senate Democratic minority guy? Where was Charles Schumer’s wisdom, daring and political acumen during that flawed and pompous process of impeachment? I hear not a whisper about his ineptness. Surely his failings contribute to Mitch McConnell’s brilliance and victory.

While the gross incompetence of our so-called progressive (left, moderate or center) party is in the spotlight, on the sidelines we have  newly exposed corruption within the DNC:– its attempts to delegitimize (as it did in 2016) the formidable old Socialist from Vermont; its shifting rules for who may and may not participate in the once-proud American process of public political debates; its shady business interests and ineptitude exposed in the recent Iowa caucus-election.

America’s Democratic Party is not the place for anyone who calls herself progressive today. It was easier to blame it on Russian hackers, wasn’t it?

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Barbara Nimri Aziz is a New York based anthropologist and journalist. In addition to books on Tibet and Nepal, she is author of “Swimming Up the Tigris: Real Life Encounters with Iraq” based on her work in Iraq and the Arab Homelands. For many years a producer at Pacifica-WBAI Radio in NY, her productions and current articles can be found at www.RadioTahrir.org  

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“Epidemic outbreaks must not be used as an excuse for discrimination and xenophobia, and press freedom must not become a reason for creating a racist opinion in German society,” said the Chinese embassy in Germany in a statement.

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The Chinese embassy in Germany on Wednesday slammed reports by a German magazine over the outbreak of the new coronavirus in China, saying they are racist and xenophobic.

The Chinese embassy in Germany denounced in a statement media outlets in Germany “that are self-claimed to objectivity and rationality, are not afraid of publishing racist remarks, instigating and inciting xenophobic ideas, especially the discrimination against China.”

“Epidemic outbreaks must not be used as an excuse for discrimination and xenophobia, and press freedom must not become a reason for creating a racist opinion in German society,” said the statement.

The Chinese embassy’s statement came after German magazine Der Spiegel ran a front-page report over the weekend featuring a man wearing red protective clothing, goggles and earphones, with the headline “Made in China.”

The Spiegel Online went further on Monday, publishing a commentary by Stefan Kuzmany, head Der Spiegel’s opinion and debate section, in which he described China and the Chinese people using discriminative language, saying that “a little racism is fine.”

However, the reports have been heavily criticized by several German readers commenting on Der Spiegel’s front-page story on the website.

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Featured image: Anti-racist campaign launched by Attorney Antonio Liu Yang in Spain to combat misinformation about coronavirus. | Photo: @antonioliuyang

Brazilian Government Wants to Destroy the Culture of Native Peoples

February 10th, 2020 by Lucas Leiroz de Almeida

Recently, Brazilian government appointed Ricardo Lopes Dias to the position of coordinator of isolated peoples at the National Indian Foundation (Fundação Nacional do Índio – FUNAI). The act was made possible by a small but substantial change in the Foundation’s bylaws, which created the possibility for people who are not career servants to assume commissioned positions of command. The change came shortly before the appointment, indicating that Ricardo Dias’ specific appointment was the reason for the reform.

The biggest problem involving Ricardo Dias, however, is another: the new coordinator is a former evangelical missionary, having already worked for more than a decade in the evangelization of indigenous peoples, when he was then a member of the New Tribes of Brazil Mission, an organization born in the USA whose objective is to spread Protestantism among Brazilian indigenous peoples.

Ricardo Dias is an PhD anthropologist and Protestant theologian. The controversies surrounding his appointment – in addition to the administrative issue – revolve around a central point: the possibility, ignited by his past, of the coordinator to use his position to promote the forced “evangelization” of isolated peoples, reviving a policy towards the indigenous peoples that Brazil has sought to abandon for decades.

Hundreds of women from several indigenous tribes march during their second day of protests, in Brasilia, Brazil, 13 August 2019, to demand Jair Bolosnaro’s far-right Government to set further health care providers at their territories, which they consider ‘threatened’ under his policies. The women, who have arrived from several territories of the country, will join the traditional farmers march tomorrow.  EPA/JOEDSON ALVES

Since the end of the military dictatorship, Brazil has tried to overcome the notion of “social integration” of isolated peoples, aiming to protect them in their traditional customs and respecting their space in the national territory. Brazil is one of the few countries in the world where it is still possible to find entire villages that have never had any contact with modern civilization, or have had it on a small scale. During the military regime, state policies aimed at these peoples sought precisely to integrate them into modernity and the consumer society. This is a concept that, after 30 years of democracy, is returning and gaining strength with the new neoliberal wave that marks the Bolsonaro’s government.

The organization of which Dias was a member is also the target of the most diverse controversies involving its activities in isolated regions of Brazil. The most controversial case involving the group concerns an epidemic that hit an isolated people in the Amazon Rainforest due to local contact with evangelical missionaries, killing several people. Although Dias currently denies involvement with the organization, the group congratulated his nomination and celebrated it with enthusiasm.

In fact, there is no problem with the evangelization of the native peoples itself. However, contact between missionary groups and indigenous ethnicities in the Amazon region has occurred throughout Brazilian history, often in a violent and proselytized way, generating the imposition of one culture on another, instead of the voluntary conversion of a people to a new faith. These isolated peoples, totaling 107 ethnic groups, voluntarily chose their situation of isolation, indicating a desire to preserve their traditions by the absence of contact with the world outside the Amazonic forest. The Brazilian Constitution safeguards this right, which has been precariously preserved over the past three decades. However, the advancement of neoliberalism and the power struggle by the evangelicals, the military and the rural entrepreneurs has rekindled the persecution and exclusion of indigenous people, increasing the number of assassinations and modernizing attacks against these peoples.

The objective then seems clear: it is not the Gospel that neo-Pentecostal missionaries want to take to the indigenous native Brazilian peoples, but money, modernity, poverty, misery, precariousness, capitalism and consumption. And the National Indian Foundation is adhering to this neoliberal campaign and changing its own internal rules to serve the interests of capitalist elites, in detriment of the peoples it must protect.

Indigenous groups, academics and the Public Defender’s Office have already pronounced condemnation against Ricardo Dias, but the appointment had already been consummated in an official act. Now, it is a matter of time before the National Indian Foundation becomes, in practice, a neo-Pentecostal missionary organization under the tutelage of the Brazilian State, which aims to completely destroy the culture of the original peoples, integrating them with capitalism and the American way of life.

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This article was originally published on InfoBrics.

Lucas Leiroz is a research fellow in International Law at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro

Featured image: Hundreds of women from several indigenous tribes march during their second day of protests, in Brasilia, Brazil, 13 August 2019, to demand Jair Bolosnaro’s far-right Government to set further health care providers at their territories, which they consider ‘threatened’ under his policies. The women, who have arrived from several territories of the country, will join the traditional farmers march tomorrow.  EPA/JOEDSON ALVES

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Menace on the Menu in Post-EU Britain

February 10th, 2020 by Colin Todhunter

Environmentalist Dr Rosemary Mason has just written the report ‘Bayer Crop Science rules Britain after Brexit – the public and the press are being poisoned by pesticides’. It has been sent to editors of major media outlets in the UK. In it, she outlines her concerns for pesticide regulation, health and the environment in a post-Brexit landscape. This article presents some of the report’s key points.

PM Boris Johnson is planning to do a trade deal with the US that could see the gutting of food and environment standards. However, Johnson recently suggested that the UK will be “governed by science, not mumbo-jumbo” on food imports. He has called for an end to “hysterical” fears about US food coming to the UK as part of a post-Brexit trade deal.

In a speech setting out his goals for trade after Brexit, he talked up the prospect of an agreement with Washington and downplayed the need for one with Brussels – if the EU insists the UK must stick to its regulatory regime. In other words, he wants to ditch EU regulations.

Just as concerning is who has the ear of government. Rosemary Mason notes that, in February 2019, at a Brexit meeting on the UK chemicals sector, UK regulators and senior officials from government departments listened to the priorities of the Bayer Crop Science Division. During the meeting (Westminster Energy, Environment & Transport Forum Keynote Seminar: Priorities for UK chemicals sector – challenges, opportunities and the future for regulation post-Brexit), Janet Williams, head of regulatory science at Bayer Crop Science Division, made her priorities for agricultural chemical manufacturers known.

Dave Bench was also a speaker. Bench is a senior scientist at the UK Chemicals, Health and Safety Executive and director of the agency’s EU exit plan and has previously stated that the regulatory system for pesticides is robust and balances the risks of pesticides against the benefits to society.

In a recent open letter to Bench, Mason states:

“That statement is rubbish. It is for the benefit of the agrochemical industry. The industry (for it is the industry that does the testing, on behalf of regulators) only tests one pesticide at a time, whereas farmers spray a cocktail of pesticides, including over children and babies, without warning.”

Furthermore, Mason has presented to him and other officials statistics on the spiralling rates of disease and illness among the UK public which correlate with the increasing use of agrochemicals, especially glyphosate.

While the UK was officially no longer part of the EU as of 1 February 2020, it will continue to follow EU rules on pesticide authorisations during a transition period lasting at least until 31 December 2020. But when the transition period ends, the UK could choose to go its own way, with major implications for several significant pesticides, including glyphosate and neonicotinoids.

In her new report, Mason discusses the health dangers of glyphosate, the world’s most widely used herbicide and an active ingredient in Monsanto’s Roundup and numerous other products. These dangers (along with corrupt practices that have kept it on the market) have been documented many times in Mason’s various open letters to officials.

Glyphosate is authorised in the EU until 2022. Reauthorisation will therefore be considered after the end of the Brexit transition period. Luxembourg is now phasing out its use and will become the first EU country to permanently ban glyphosate. EU countries only narrowly approved its reauthorisation in 2017. The exit of the UK from the soon to be 27-country bloc could tip the voting scales against the substance in 2022.

On the other hand, however, Mason concludes that it is highly likely that the UK will authorise the continued use of glyphosate given the influence of industry.

As for neonicotinoids – seed-coating insecticides that have been linked to harming to bees – Mason concludes that it is difficult to say whether the UK would stick to its most recent position in favour of a ban on clothianidin, imidacloprid and thiamethoxam. She advises officials to take notice of Dr Henk Tennekes’ toxicological studies on systemic neonicotinoid insecticides from 2010. Tennekes says that unwarranted product defence by Bayer and Syngenta may have had catastrophic consequences for the environment.

Human health and glyphosate

Boris Johnson said on 3 February 2020:

“I look at the Americans, they look pretty well nourished to me. And I don’t hear any of these critics of American food coming back from the United States and complaining… So, let’s take some of the paranoia out of this argument.”

Mason’s response is that to judge the health of a nation by claiming “they look well nourished to me” is pure nonsense: the US has the most obese citizens in the world and Britain has the second. In her numerous reports over the past 10 years, she has been consistently documenting a major public health crisis which is affecting both countries as a result of the chemical contamination of food and crops.

Of course, with a US trade deal in the pipeline, there are major concerns about GMOs, chlorinated chickens and the lowering of food standards across the board. But for Mason, glyphosate is a big concern.

US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) tests found glyphosate on 63 percent of corn samples and 67 percent of soybean samples. But the FDA did not test any oats and wheat, the two main crops where glyphosate is used as a pre-harvest drying agent, resulting in glyphosate contamination of foods such as Cheerios and some brands of granola.

Olga Naidenko, senior science advisor for children’s health at the Environment Working Group (EWG) has responded by saying:

“FDA’s failure to test for glyphosate in the foods where it’s most likely to be found is inexcusable.”

In August, tests commissioned by EWG found glyphosate residues on popular oat cereals, oatmeal, granola and snack bars. Almost three-fourths of the 45 samples tested had glyphosate levels higher than what EWG scientists consider protective of children’s health with an adequate margin of safety.

Mason says that glyphosate causes epigenetic changes in humans and animals: diseases skip a generation. Washington State University researchers have found a variety of diseases and other health problems in the second- and third-generation offspring of rats exposed to glyphosate. In the first study of its kind, the researchers saw descendants of exposed rats developing prostate, kidney and ovarian diseases, obesity and birth abnormalities.

Writing in the journal Scientific Reports, the researchers say they saw “dramatic increases” in several pathologies affecting the second and third generations. The second generation had “significant increases” in testis, ovary and mammary gland diseases, as well as obesity. In third-generation males, the researchers saw a 30 percent incidence of prostate disease — three times the rate of a control population. The third generation of females had a 40 percent incidence of kidney disease, or four times the rate of the controls.

More than one-third of the second-generation mothers had unsuccessful pregnancies, with most of those affected dying. Two out of five males and females in the third generation were obese.

Mason notes that researchers call this phenomenon “generational toxicology” and they’ve seen it over the years in fungicides, pesticides, jet fuel, the plastics compound bisphenol A, the insect repellent DEET and the herbicide atrazine. At work are epigenetic changes that turn genes on and off, often because of environmental influences.

Glyphosate has been the subject of numerous studies about its health effects. This recent study is the third in the past few months out of Washington alone. A study published in February found the chemical increased the risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma by as much as 41 percent. A Washington State University study published in December found state residents living close to areas subject to treatments with the herbicide are one-third more likely to die an early death from Parkinson’s disease.

This research adds to long-held health-related concerns about glyphosate.

Robert F Kennedy Jr, one of the attorney’s fighting Bayer (which has bought Monsanto) in the US courts, has explained thatfor four decades Monsanto manoeuvred to conceal Roundup’s carcinogenicity by capturing regulatory agencies, corrupting public officials, bribing scientists and engaging in scientific fraud to delay its day of reckoning. He says that Monsanto also faces cascading scientific evidence linking glyphosate to a constellation of other injuries that have become prevalent since its introduction, including obesity, depression, Alzheimer’s, ADHD, autism, multiple sclerosis, Parkinson’s, kidney disease, inflammatory bowel disease, brain, breast and prostate cancer, miscarriage, birth defects and declining sperm counts.

Moreover, strong science suggests glyphosate is the culprit in the exploding epidemics of celiac disease, colitis, gluten sensitivities, diabetes and non-alcoholic liver cancer which, for the first time, is attacking children as young as 10.

Nevertheless, Mason notes, senior officials in the UK trot out platitudes about glyphosate being harmless and refer to flawed procedures and biased assessments that overlooked key studies.

With these health issues in mind, we should remind ourselves of Boris Johnson’s first speech to parliament as PM. In it, he said:

“Let’s start now to liberate the UK’s extraordinary bioscience sector from anti-genetic modification rules…”

This could mean the irresponsible introduction of genetically modified Roundup Ready food crops to the UK, which would see the amount of glyphosate in British food reaching new levels (levels which are already disturbing).

In finishing, it is worth mentioning that Mason makes some very pertinent points about the Conservative government in the UK, accusing it of working hand in glove with Monsanto and now Bayer. Yet, as IG Farben, Bayer collaborated with the Nazis and had a factory and prisoner of war camp at Auschwitz. For Mason, the fact that the UK media remain silent on this and has run smear campaigns about Labour and Jeremy Corbyn being anti-semitic is as disgraceful as it is hypocritical.

The UK media do not mention the US lawsuits against Monsanto-Bayer and all the diseases that Roundup brings. The media also ignore every report Mason sends to them in the hope mainstream journalists will inform the public of the dangers of pesticides and pressurise the government to act.

In the meantime, Boris Johnson is attempting to soften up the public on behalf of the corporate interests he represents. Based on no science (or scruples) whatsoever, Johnson says US citizens are fit and healthy and dismisses valid science-based concerns about the food system as “mumbo jumbo” and hysteria. He hopes the public will fall for his knockabout schtick and will remain blissfully ignorant of the reality. With the media’s compliance, the majority of people may well do.

Readers are urged to read Rosemary Mason’s new report, which contains all relevant references and additional information to that which has been outlined in this article. It can be accessed on the academia.edu website along with dozens of her previous reports

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The Bad Blood of Brexit Coursing Through Our Veins

February 10th, 2020 by True Publica

Brexit is not just tearing the union apart, it is further souring an already strained relationship with both the European Union and with America. The economy has flatlined, inward investment has collapsed and the government are now so desperate that it is even attempting to change the language it uses to rewrite the history of Brexit. This is a one-way trajectory – a spiral.

Three polls in Scotland in the past five days had put the yes vote at 50% or higher. If there was a vote today, Scotland would leave the Union. Sinn Fein, the political mouthpiece of Northern Ireland’s IRA is leading in the Irish polls. Who would have thought that? It won’t gain power because it isn’t fielding enough MP’s, but it shows the strength of public opinion has massively shifted in just a couple of years. And don’t forget, that the current political party in power has been there for nearly a hundred years.

If Scotland left the Union, 40 per cent of Britains landmass leaves with it and if it joined the EU, which it has already confirmed, a border crossing would appear. Scotland’s fishing area is six times the size of its own landmass and it contains 90 per cent of Britain’s surface freshwater (Source: gov.scot). It has 5 million people in an economy is worth £170bn. No matter what you think, its overall loss to the UK would be devastating.

The Conservative party and the Brexiteers would be blamed and the wedge, already driven deeply through society would simply be plunged even deeper. The route to the reunification of Ireland would add to the depth of that division.

Bad blood tactics

It’s only been a few days since Britain formally entered phase one of the withdrawal process of exiting the EU. The governments’ propaganda machine is back in high gear again spewing out all sorts of lies and confusing nonsense. It’s becoming clear that they don’t have a credible plan other than to tread water and then blame everyone else for their failures. It is lying about its own withdrawal agreement and blaming the EU for their (fictitious) intransigence. It’s so frustrating to witness. It’s like having a useless line manager attempting to explain to everyone in the office why he’s the best line manager ever.

Boris Johnson has gone from guaranteeing that the UK will get a great deal with the EU because they will be desperate to do one, to a Canada Super ++ deal and finally arrived at the Australia deal. Australia doesn’t have a trade deal with the EU. So was that double-speak for a hard Brexit? Or not? Clarification was confirmed by EU trade chief Phil Hogan, who pointed out the obvious: “We do not have an agreement with Australia,” he said.  “I think that’s code for no deal.

And that spat just about confirmed Britain’s true position. It doesn’t actually have one. Or does it?

Meanwhile

Out of the blue – U.K. Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab then accused the EU of “trying to shift the goalposts” ahead of trade talks and started blabbing nonsense about the Withdrawal Agreement. Raab is either clueless or just plain lying. Probably both.

Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar called U.K. plans for its diplomats to sit apart from EU counterparts in international forums “a little bit petty.” Varadka is right of course, as seating arrangements for political and economic forums aren’t about cliques.

Then, recently departed European Council President Donald Tusk told a television interviewer that Brussels would be “enthusiastic” about an independent Scotland one day joining the EU in a clear jibe at Brexit causing the Union to disintegrate, which it probably will.

Before you know it, Boris Johnson joined in and said in a speech last Monday, that the Canada-style free trade agreement they seek does not require full alignment with EU rules, which the EU insists is a central core to its negotiating position and the Withdrawal Agreement. Like Raab, Johnson just changed the lie. This is Britain on the world stage today, it exercises yah-boo politics in place of professional negotiation and diplomatic strategy.

The bitter truth

Rudolf G. Adam was a German Diplomat and most recently led the German Embassy in London. In a recent article he wrote some home truths about the real situation Britain is facing:

“Brexit has pushed the country into a pre-revolutionary constitutional crisis. The bond of four nations under one monarchy is tottering and the biggest changes will be faced by England itself. The relationship between the four power centres in the state – Crown, Government, Parliament and People – has been knocked off balance. Brexit was supposed to have re-established the absolute sovereignty of Parliament. But between populist direct democracy, royal prerogative and the claim of the Supreme Court to decide on constitutional questions, it threatened to be shredded. Brexit will be done neither on 31 January or on 31 December 2020. It will pre-occupy the country for years, if not for decades. Boris Johnson has ‘UKIPised’ the Conservative Party and turned it into a radical party of English nationalists. The hard Brexit that is now gradually coming into view is scarcely what the majority of British electors voted for on 23 June 2016.”

There are very few people in Britain who do not take a position on Brexit. Far from strengthening us – it has weakened us. Far from unifying us, it has divided us. Far from the promises of a bright new era of prosperity, the country faces a period of constitutional, political and probably an economic crisis. Far from taking back control – we are wrestling with ourselves and our partners. The governments’ top advisors are now warning of the calamity facing Britain.

We have history

The English Civil War was a battle over a political ideolog, principally over the manner of governance. It pitted one side against the other and battles took place in Scotland and Ireland and was known at the time as the Wars of Three kingdoms. It was 300 years later that the term the ‘great civil war’ entered the lexicon of British history. In its aftermath, many in society were politically and/or economically sidelined and unity finally dissolved into factions. However, the final result was that a new system of governance was created, the Kingdom of Great Britain was formed in 1707 under the Acts of Union.  And whilst civil war is unlikely, the risk of aggressively reversing out of that history has never been as close as it is today. One only has to imagine Westminster refusing Scotland’s demand for a vote for independence to imagine extreme factions emerging as they did with the IRA over its claim for unity.

Never in our lifetimes have we heard of a collective crowd baying at each other’s downfall over the constitutional crisis we see today. The young blame the old. The well-off blame the poor, the educated blame the uneducated. There is bad blood coursing through the veins of everyone over this crisis. We have not been this divided since the 1640s. This is a dangerous moment in our long history – and there will be consequences.

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Deported to Death: US Sent 138 Salvadorans Home to be Killed

February 10th, 2020 by Prof. Mneesha Gellman

At least 138 people deported from the United States to El Salvador since 2013 have been killed, according to a new report by Human Rights Watch, which investigates human rights abuses worldwide.

The 117-page report also says researchers identified at least 70 deportees who were sexually assaulted, tortured or kidnapped. Many victims were asylum-seekers attacked or killed by the gangs they originally fled.

The findings show that “the U.S. is repeatedly violating its obligations to protect Salvadorans from return to serious risk of harm,” Human Rights Watch says.

The group used court records, police reports, interviews with victims and their families and news articles to document the fates of deportees. It is the first systematic effort to find out what happened to Salvadorans whose asylum claims were rejected in U.S. immigration courts because they failed to demonstrate “credible fear” of violence in El Salvador.

International asylum laws created after the Holocaust require countries to take in people who are persecuted for their race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion.

El Salvador has one of the world’s highest homicide rates. It is one of the main sources of migration to the U.S.

As part of its immigration crackdown, the Trump administration in September signed an agreement with El Salvador requiring the Central American country to keep asylum seekers there while they await the results of their asylum claims.

But the murders of 138 deportees belie any notion that El Salvador can protect citizens who are under threat.

Roots of impunity

Roughly the size of New Jersey, El Salvador is densely populated and highly connected by cellphone service and social media. The vulnerable groups protected under international asylum law cannot easily go under the radar or relocate if targeted by gangs, corrupt police or domestic abusers.

Hundreds of Salvadorans are killed every month. Murders, disappearances and tortures almost always go unsolved in El Salvador. Criminals, especially those with access to power, are rarely punished for their wrongdoing.

I have documented this culture of impunity across Central America and Mexico, focusing on the indigenous people, women and political dissidents who are so often victims of political violence.

This violence dates back centuries, to Spain’s bloody conquest of the Americas. As in the U.S., colonial-era brutality has lasting impacts on the region’s race, class and gender divisions.

In 1932, the massacre of indigenous Salvadorans and leftists who rebelled against dictator Maximiliano Hernández Martínez left between 10,000 and 30,000 dead.

Communist Party member Farabundo Martí, who led Salvadoran peasant farmers in their revolt against political corruption and unjust resource allocation, was assassinated after the massacre. But the struggle continued.

By the 1970s, dissident factions again organized against state oppression. United as the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front, these groups eventually waged war on the ruling ARENA party, which they blamed for oppressing the Salvadoran working class.

The subsequent Salvadoran civil war killed 75,000 people. In 1992, with intensive military support from the United States, ARENA defeated the rebels.

The 1992 El Salvador peace accords, overseen by the United Nations, were meant to bring national reconciliation. A truth commission documented widespread human rights abuses committed by state and paramilitary forces during the war. But days after the report was released, in 1993, El Salvador’s ARENA-controlled congress passed an amnesty law that excused most government and military officials.

As a result, the root causes of El Salvador’s conflict – particularly, unequal access to insufficient resources – still plague society. So does the very weak rule of law that allowed civil war criminals to go unpunished.

Neither the rightist or leftist governments that have held power since have managed to change this.

El Salvador’s defense minister recently assessed that there are more gang members than soldiers in his country. Police in El Salvador are extremely aggressive in pursuing them, and civilians can get caught in the crossfire, Human Rights Watch finds.

The resulting dangerous disarray sent 46,800 residents to seek asylum in the U.S. last year. Risking the unknown violence of migration over guaranteed violence at home is, for many Salvadorans, a logical decision.

Human security

Crime and violence in El Salvador has declined since President Nayib Bukele took office in June 2019, according to the government.

The president credits his tough-on-gangs policing with improving security in the country. But some crime analysts say the apparent drop in homicides is actually a manipulation of crime data. The government recently changed how it counts murders, eliminating deaths that result from confrontation with security forces – police killings – from the homicide category.

In any case, levels of violence in El Salvador are still among the world’s highest.

Police regularly turn a blind eye to violence by gang members, including both MS-13 and Barrio 18 gangs, either due to corruption or concern for their own safety. As a result, Salvadoran police frequently fail to meaningfully protect people from gang violence.

In these circumstances, deporting Salvadoran asylum-seekers may violate an international law called “non-refoulement.”

According to the 1954 United Nations Convention on the Status of Refugees, which both the U.S. and El Salvador signed, states cannot expel refugees to a territory “where his life or freedom would be threatened.”

Migrants know El Salvador can’t protect them. That, of course, is why they flee. Now the United States government has to know that, too.

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This story has been modified to more accurately characterize the methodology used by Human Rights Watch. It is an updated version of an article originally published Oct. 10, 2019.

 is a Associate Professor of Political Science, Emerson College.

Gas Wars in the Mediterranean

February 10th, 2020 by Mike Whitney

The unexpected alliance between Turkey and Libya is a geopolitical earthquake that changes the balance of power in the eastern Mediterranean and across the Middle East. Turkey’s audacious move has enraged its rivals in the region and cleared the way for a dramatic escalation in the 9 year-long Libyan civil war. It has also forced leaders in Europe and Washington to decide how they will counter Turkey’s plan to defend the U.N-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA), and to extend its maritime borders from Europe to Africa basically creating “a water corridor through the eastern Mediterranean linking the coasts of Turkey and Libya.” Leaders in Ankara believe that the agreement “is a major coup in energy geopolitics” that helps defend Turkey’s “sovereign rights against the gatekeepers of the regional status quo.” But Turkey’s rivals strongly disagree. They see the deal as a naked power grab that undermines their ability to transport natural gas from the East Mediterranean to Europe without crossing Turkish waters. In any event, the Turkey-Libya agreement has set the stage for a broader conflict that will unavoidably involve Egypt, Israel, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Europe, Russia and the United States. All parties appear to have abandoned diplomatic channels altogether and are, instead, preparing for war.

On November 27, Turkey and Libya signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that commits Turkey to providing military assistance to Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA). The MoU also redraws Turkey’s maritime boundaries in a way that dramatically impacts the transport of gas from the East Mediterranean to Europe. Israel is particularly worried that this new deal will undermine its plans for a 1,900-kilometer EastMed pipeline connecting the Leviathan gas field, off the coast of Israel, to the EU. YNET News summarized Israel’s concerns in an ominously titled article: “Turkey’s maneuver could block Israel’s access to the sea”. Here’s an excerpt:

“Two of Israel’s wars (1956 Sinai campaign and 1967 Six-Day War) broke out over navigation rights. Israel must take note of a new reality taking hold in the Mediterranean. It must regard Turkey’s actions as a substantial strategic threat and consider what it may do to respond to it…

This EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zones) designation essentially carved up much of the energy-rich Eastern Mediterranean between Turkey and Libya, prompting a wave of international condemnations first and foremost from Greece, Egypt, and Cyprus, who may be directly or indirectly affected…..Turkey’s disregard for the economic waters of Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt.

Ankara is in effect annexing those areas pending an appeal to international tribunals, which can take many years to resolve. In practical terms, Turkey created a sea border the width of the entire Mediterranean.” (“Turkey’s maneuver could block Israel’s access to the sea”, ynet news)

The analysis from America’s premier Foreign Policy magazine was no less foreboding. Check it out:

“Turkey is meshing together two Mediterranean crises in a desperate bid to reshape the region in its own favor, with potentially nasty implications both for the ongoing civil war in Libya and future energy development in the eastern Mediterranean.

This month, Turkey’s unusual outreach to the internationally recognized government of Libya has resulted in a formal agreement for Ankara to provide military support, including arms and possibly troops, in its bid to hold off an offensive from Russian-backed rebels in the eastern part of the country. The military agreement came just weeks after Turkey and that same Government of National Accord reached an unusual agreement to essentially carve up much of the energy-rich eastern Mediterranean between them—threatening to cut out Greece and Cyprus from the coming bonanza….” (“Newly Aggressive Turkey Forges Alliance With Libya”, Foreign Policy)

While these new developments are likely to intensify the fighting on the ground in Libya, they also portend a deepening of divisions within the region itself where new coalitions are forming and battle-lines are being drawn. On the one side is the Turkey-Libya Axis, while on the other is Greece, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Israel, France, Germany, UK and probably the United States although the Trump administration has not yet clarified its position. In any event, the war between Libya’s internationally-recognized government and Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) is just a small part of a much larger struggle over vital hydrocarbons in a strategically-located area of the Mediterranean. Here’s a clip from an article at War On The Rocks that helps to underscore the stakes involved:

“The discovery of significant deposits of natural gas in the Eastern Mediterranean beginning in 2009 was a game-changer that upended regional geopolitics. It prompted new and unexpected alliances between Israel, Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt to maximize their chances of energy self-sufficiency. The bulk of the gas lies in Egypt’s Zohr field, the Leviathan and Tamar fields in Israeli waters, and the Aphrodite near the island of Cyprus. With recoverable natural gas reserves in the region estimated at upward of 120 trillion cubic feet, the strategic implications could not be bigger. This is about the same amount as the proven gas in the whole of Iraq, the 12th largest reserve globally….(Israel’s gas field) Leviathan is estimated to hold 22 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas, and a potential half a million barrels of oil.” (“Hydrocarbon Diplomacy: Turkey’s Gambit Might Yet Pay a Peace Dividend”, warontherocks.com)

Turkey’s ambitious gambit makes it more likely that its rivals will increase their support for the Libyan warlord, Haftar, who is, by-most-accounts, a CIA asset that was sent to Libya in 2014 to topple the government in Tripoli and unify the country under a US puppet. Haftar’s forces currently control more than 70% of the Libyan territory while almost 60% of the population is under the control of the GNA led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. According to Turkish news: “More than half of Haftar’s troops are mercenaries from Russia and Sudan, who are mainly paid by the Gulf states.”

In April, 2019, Haftar launched an offensive on the government in Tripoli but was easily repelled. In recent days, however, Haftar has resumed his attacks on the city of Misrata and on the Tripoli airport in clear violation of the Berlin ceasefire agreement. He has also received shipments of weapons from the UAE despite an arms embargo that was unanimously approved two weeks ago at the same Berlin Conference. We expect that support for Haftar will continue to grow in the months ahead as Berlin, Paris and particularly Washington settle on a plan for reinforcing proxies to prosecute the ground war and for blunting Turkey’s power projection in the Mediterranean.

The Turkey-Libya agreement is a clumsy attempt to impose Turkey’s preferred maritime boundaries on the other countries bordering the Mediterranean. Naturally, Washington will not allow this unilateral assertion of power to go unchallenged.

And while Washington’s strategy has not yet been announced, that merely indicates that the foreign policy establishment was caught off-guard by Turkey’s November 27 announcement. It does not mean that Washington will accept the status quo. To the contrary, US war-planners are undoubtedly putting the finishing touches on a new strategy aimed at achieving their objectives in Libya while at the same time dealing a stinging blow to a NATO ally that has grown closer to Russia, caused endless headaches in Syria, and is now disrupting Washington’s plans for controlling vital resources in the East Mediterranean.

Washington sees Turkey’s assertive foreign policy as a sign of “defiance” which requires a iron-fisted response. But any attack on Turkey or Turkish interests will only intensify the bad blood between Ankara and Washington, it will only put more pressure on the threadbare NATO alliance, and it will only push Turkish president Erdogan further into Moscow’s corner. Indeed, the Trump team should realize that an overreaction on their part could trigger a fateful realignment that could reshape the region while hastening the emergence of a new order.

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First published by Global Research on September 8, 2015

In fact, the ICC has attempted to exercise such jurisdiction in at least two other occasions: both Omar al-Bashir of Sudan and Uhuru Kenyatta of Kenya, sitting heads of state, have been formally charged by that court (the Kenyatta charges has since been withdrawn).

ICC member countries are obligated to cooperate with the ICC in bringing wanted individuals to the court. And the ICC is currently looking at allegations of war crimes committed in Gaza last year.

Surprisingly, sitting heads of state may also lack a guaranteed immunity in a United States court.

In United States v. Noriega, 117 F.3d 1206 (11th Cir. 1997) the United States Court of Appeal for the Eleventh Circuit rejected Manuel Noriega’s claims of head-of-state immunity on the basis that federal law gives the Executive Branch the ultimate say in whether or not a sitting foreign leader is entitled to immunity in a United States court.

Because the Executive Branch declined to provide such an immunity, the court could exercise jurisdiction and hear the criminal complaint against Noriega. Id. at 1212.

In theory, then, a sitting head-of-state like Prime Minister Netanyahu could be prosecuted under United States law — assuming that the Executive Branch permitted such a prosecution.

Once an individual leaves office, the chances of a successful prosecution increase dramatically.

There are several famous examples of this in the previous decades. The prosecution of Adolf Eichmann, the successful arrest warrant against Augusto Pinochet (effectively suspended when Home Secretary Jack Straw permitted Pinochet to leave the United Kingdom for health reasons) and the extradition of Miguel Cavallo to Spain, testify to the growing importance of “universal jurisdiction” over heinous crimes committed by former government officials.

Eichmann is a particularly important example, as the State of Israel did not even exist when Eichmann committed his crimes – yet this was no bar to Israeli jurisdiction and criminal prosecution.

The international tribunals at Nuremberg, Tokyo, Yugoslavia and Rwanda all established as part of their charters the legal principle that acts committed while acting in a government capacity are not a grounds for immunity.

The Nuremberg Charter expressly noted that, “The fact that a person who committed an act which constitutes a crime under international law acted as Head of State or responsible government official does not relieve him from responsibility under international law.”

Nuremberg Trials

It is certainly arguable that these principles are part of international customary law, meaning, that a court of competent jurisdiction could deny an immunity to a former head of state because international customary law has rejected such an immunity for certain crimes.

It is thus foreseeable that a judge in Europe or Latin America may be the first to decide that crimes against Palestinians are worthy of redress in his or her courtroom at a future time, when Netanyahu is no longer in power.

For centuries, jurists and scholars have spoken of the concept of hostis humani generis — so-called “enemies of civilization.”

The law states that such enemies of civilization can be prosecuted in any competent court, because their crimes are a threat to a decent and humane society.

Pirates are hostis humani generis, even under United States law.

Arguably, those who commit torture, genocide, war crimes and aggression belong in this category as well.

Accountability for these crimes is an integral part of the Western liberal democratic tradition. John Locke, in his Second Treatise on Government, labeled illegal warmakers “robbers and pirates.” “The injury and the crime is equal, whether committed by the wearer of a crown, or some petty villain,” he wrote.

Centuries later, countries (even, or particularly, Western countries) still bend the rule of law to defer prosecution of their preferred government leaders, even when such accountability is the promise of a just liberal democratic order.

But history shows that such immunities are beginning to weaken.

It may not be today or tomorrow but eventually, accountability for international crimes by any leader — German, Chilean, Sudanese, Russian, Israeli or American — will be the standard in a more enlightened and civilized time.

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First published and posted in GR in December 2019

Fatty liver disease and death of liver tissue were also confirmed in rats fed regulatory permitted and thus presumed safe doses of the weedkiller

The primary mechanism of how glyphosate herbicides kill plants is by inhibiting an enzyme called EPSPS, which is part of a biochemical pathway known as the shikimate pathway. The shikimate pathway is responsible for the synthesis of certain aromatic amino acids that are vital for the production of proteins, the building blocks of life. Thus when the synthesis of the aromatic amino acids is blocked by glyphosate inhibition of EPSPS, the plant dies.

Humans and animals do not have the shikimate pathway, so industry and regulators have claimed that glyphosate is nontoxic to humans.[1] However, some strains of gut bacteria do have the shikimate pathway, leading to much debate about whether Roundup and glyphosate could affect the gut microbiome (bacterial populations). Imbalances in gut bacteria have been found to be linked with many diseases, including cancer, type 2 diabetes, obesity, and depression.

As many species of gut bacteria do have the shikimate pathway, scientists have hypothesised that glyphosate herbicides could inhibit the EPSPS enzyme of the shikimate pathway in these organisms, leading to imbalance in the microbiome, with potentially negative health consequences. Some have proposed that if glyphosate herbicides do disrupt the gut microbiome, EPSPS inhibition will be the primary mechanism through which this occurs.

However, proof that glyphosate herbicides can inhibit the EPSPS enzyme and the shikimate pathway in gut bacteria has been lacking. But a new study has proven beyond doubt that this does indeed happen.

The study in rats by an international team of scientists based in London, France, Italy, and the Netherlands, led by Dr Michael Antoniou of King’s College London and posted on the pre-peer-review site BioRxiv, has found that Roundup herbicide and its active ingredient glyphosate cause a dramatic increase in the levels of two substances, shikimic acid and 3-dehydroshikimic acid, in the gut, which are a direct indication that the EPSPS enzyme of the shikimic acid pathway has been severely inhibited.

In addition, the researchers found that both Roundup and glyphosate affected the microbiome at all dose levels tested, causing shifts in bacterial populations.

Levels tested were previously assumed to have no adverse effect

For the study, female rats (12 per group) were fed a daily dose of either glyphosate or a Roundup formulation approved in Europe, called MON 52276. Glyphosate and Roundup were administered via drinking water to give a glyphosate daily intake of 0.5 mg, 50 mg and 175 mg/kg body weight per day (mg/kg bw/day), which respectively represent the EU acceptable daily intake (ADI), the EU no-observed adverse effect level (NOAEL), and the US NOAEL.

The study found certain adverse effects at all doses tested, disproving regulators’ assumptions that these levels have no adverse effect.

Some previous studies have also reported changes in the gut microbiome of laboratory animals exposed to glyphosate and/or Roundup. However, as they did not use the more in-depth molecular profiling techniques (multi-omics) used in the latest investigation, they failed to observe the inhibition of the shikimate pathway.

Unique comprehensive analysis

The unique aspect of the new study is that a more comprehensive analysis than ever before was carried out to see if the gut microbiome changes could affect the rats’ health.

The researchers applied two levels of analysis to investigate the changes:

1) a metagenomics analysis, which looked at the totality of DNA in the gut and thus identified all organisms present.

2) a metabolomics analysis, which looked at alterations in biochemistry of the gut microbiome environment.

Dr Antoniou commented,

“We are the first to use this combination of profiling by metagenomics and metabolomics to look for effects of glyphosate herbicides on the gut microbiome. Through this comprehensive multi-omics analysis, we obtained definitive results demonstrating glyphosate and Roundup impact on both the bacterial population and biochemistry of the gut microbiome.”

The metagenomics analysis found that both Roundup and glyphosate affected the microbiome at all dose levels, causing shifts in bacterial populations. Metabolomics revealed that the levels of two substances, shikimic acid and 3-dehydroshikimic acid, were dramatically increased at the two higher doses in the gut of the rats fed both glyphosate and Roundup. These two acids were undetectable in the gut of control animals. This is a clear indication that the EPSPS enzyme of the shikimate acid pathway was inhibited by the glyphosate and Roundup, since if it were active, it would rapidly convert the shikimic acid to the next substance in the pathway – but that didn’t happen.

Dr Antoniou said that this effect had been previously hypothesised but not proven:

“Our study provides the first proof that glyphosate and Roundup at these regulatory permitted and thus presumed safe doses inhibit the shikimic acid pathway in gut bacteria.”

Oxidative stress

The researchers also saw other changes in the gut metabolome that were indicative of oxidative stress, a type of imbalance that can lead to mutations in DNA, damage to cells and tissues, and diseases such as cancer. Gut bacteria respond to oxidative stress by producing certain substances that combat it.[2]

Biomarkers of glyphosate exposure

Dr Antoniou said that the study has broken new ground in identifying the first ever biomarker of glyphosate exposure, which could be relevant to humans:

“Our findings suggest that surveys of human populations should be undertaken as a matter of urgency to show if there is a correlation between levels of glyphosate and shikimate. If such a correlation is found, then shikimate levels could be used as a measure of the biological effects of glyphosate exposure.”

This means it is possible to see if a certain disease in a person is associated with glyphosate exposure by looking at their faecal microbiome, though a causative link between the disease and glyphosate could not be drawn.

Furthermore, the results showed distinct changes in the profile of gut bacterial populations. Glyphosate and MON 52276 increased the levels of Eggerthella spp. and Homeothermacea spp, whilst MON 52276 also increased the levels of Shinella zoogleoides. These shifts in bacterial species, if confirmed by further studies, could also act as additional biomarkers of glyphosate and Roundup exposure.

Dr Antoniou said,

“We see definitive and consistent changes at all doses of MON 52276 and glyphosate. So even at the ADI (Acceptable Daily Intake, the level regulators believe can be ingested on a daily basis over the long term with no adverse effect) level we see these changes in bacterial populations. In the long term there may be health implications. Currently science does not understand enough about what the biological and health consequences of these changes might be, but the alterations are in themselves a cause for concern.”

Liver damage in rats fed Roundup and glyphosate

The study also revealed that Roundup, and to a lesser extent glyphosate, damaged the liver and kidneys of the rats, even over the relatively short study period of 90 days. Histopathological (microscopic) examination of the liver showed that the two higher doses of Roundup caused a statistically significant and dose-dependent increase in lesions, fatty liver disease changes, and necrosis (death of tissue).

In the new study, in the glyphosate treatment group, there was also an increase in the incidence of this liver damage but it was not at a statistically significant level. In contrast, none of the control animals showed the same liver effects, so the changes in the glyphosate-fed animals may be biologically significant. As the authors state, it’s possible that they didn’t reach statistical significance because the numbers of animals were too low and the exposure duration too short. Another month or two added to the study duration could have resulted in statistical significance for the glyphosate as well as the Roundup effects.

The fatty liver disease findings confirm and extend the observations of an earlier study from Dr Antoniou’s team. In this previous study, rats were given a dose of Roundup that was a staggering 125,000 times lower, based on the dose of glyphosate, than the lowest dose group in the new investigation. However, they were fed this dose over a longer-term period of two years. This lower dose also caused fatty liver disease.

“We now know that a lower dose of Roundup over a longer time or a higher dose over a shorter time produce the same outcome,” said Dr Antoniou.

Kidney dysfunction

There were clear increases in kidney dysfunction – lesions, mineralisation and necrosis – in the Roundup and glyphosate groups, but they were mostly not statistically significant. This again may be because there were too few animals or the study was too short. Anyone wishing to replicate these effects in other studies should extend the length of the study and use larger numbers of animals to see if serious harm to the kidneys occurs over the long term.

Blood biochemistry

The researchers expected the signs of damage to liver and kidney function in the Roundup groups and to a lesser extent in the glyphosate groups to be reflected in the blood biochemistry. Surprisingly, however, they saw little change on this level. Dr Antoniou commented,

“While blood biochemical measurements are routinely used to assess liver or kidney dysfunction in humans, they are relatively crude methods which could miss effects from pesticides. And so it proved in our study.

“But by using ‘omics’ that analyse hundreds of measurements, we did see liver toxicity from glyphosate and Roundup. We saw all these changes after just 90 days of feeding at levels that regulators say produce no adverse effect.

“Our study shows that more superficial physiological and biochemical measurements do not go deep enough. We must use cutting edge multi-omics methods of analysis as part of the risk assessment process, to ensure that we don’t miss anything of significance for public health.”

Thus far, regulators have not incorporated these methods into the risk assessment process.

New mechanism for glyphosate-cancer link?

In 2015 glyphosate was classified as a probable carcinogen by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). The agency’s experts identified oxidative stress and genotoxicity (damage to DNA) as possible mechanisms.

The new study proposes a new mechanism through which exposure to glyphosate-based herbicides can cause cancer. Animals fed Roundup and glyphosate showed elevated levels of shikimic acid in their gut. Shikimic acid can have many different biological effects, including protecting the body from oxidative stress. But it has also been proposed as a cancer promoter, and a recent study found that shikimate can stimulate proliferation of human breast cancer cells. The authors state in their paper,

“The novel mechanism of action of glyphosate on the gut microbiome we describe in the study presented here might be of relevance in the debate on glyphosate’s ability to act as a carcinogen.”

Power of multi-omics

In their paper, the authors explain that their study “demonstrates the power of using multi-omics molecular profiling to reveal changes in the gut microbiome following exposure to chemical pollutants that would otherwise be missed using more standard, less comprehensive analytical methods”.

The researchers identified the first biomarker of glyphosate effects on the rat gut microbiome, namely a marked increase in shikimate and 3-dehydroshikimate, which indicates inhibition of the EPSPS enzyme of the shikimate pathway. In addition, they found increased levels of certain substances suggestive of a response to oxidative stress. They also showed that Roundup and glyphosate caused distinct changes in the profile of the gut bacterial populations, which could also act as additional biomarkers of glyphosate and Roundup exposure.

The researchers concluded,

“Although more studies are needed to understand the health implications of glyphosate inhibition of the shikimate pathway in the gut microbiome, our findings can be used in environmental epidemiological studies to understand if glyphosate can have biological effects in human populations.”

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Notes

1. In the Final addendum to the Renewal Assessment Report on glyphosate (October 2015), p23, rapporteur Member State Germany and co-rapporteur Member State Slovakia state, based on industry claims, “Action at the shikimic acid pathway is unique to glyphosate and the absence of this pathway in animals is an important factor of its low vertebrate toxicity.”

2. Increased levels of γ-glutamylglutamine, cysteinylglycine and valylglycine were found in the gut.

Featured image is from Mike Mozart (CC BY 2.0)

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Video: The U.S. Attempted 2018 Coup against Nicaragua

February 9th, 2020 by Daniel Kovalik

Watch this full length documentary by Dan Kovalik

Daniel Kovalik is an American lawyer and Human Rights advocate who’s followed Nicaragua’s politics for the last four decades.

20 months after what was called the “April Crisis” he goes to Nicaragua to understand what really happened.

“Kovalik helps cut through the Orwellian lies and dissembling which make so-called ‘humanitarian intervention possible.” Oliver Stone

VIDEO

 

 

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The United States: A “Destroyer Of Nations”

February 9th, 2020 by Daniel Kovalik

First published by Counterpunch and Global Research in October 2016

In the aftermath of the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 – an invasion which many Iraqis believe left their country in the worst condition it has been since the Mongol invasion of 1258 — there was much discussion in the media about the Bush Administration’s goal for “nation-building” in that country.   Of course, if there ever were such a goal, it was quickly abandoned, and one hardly ever hears the term “nation-building” discussed as a U.S. foreign policy objective anymore.

The stark truth is that the U.S. really has no intentions of helping to build strong states in the Middle East or elsewhere. Rather, as we see time and again – e.g., in Yugoslavia, Sudan, Libya, Yemen, Syria, Somalia, Ukraine – the goal of U.S. foreign policy, whether stated or not, is increasingly and more aggressively the destruction and balkanization of independent states. However, it is important to recognize that this goal is not new.

Indeed, South Korean human rights scholar Dong Choon Kim, writing of the U.S. war in Korea (1950 – 1953) – a war which he opines was at least arguably genocidal – explains that even back then, the nation-building of Third World peoples was viewed as an act of subversion which had to be snuffed out.   As he explained, “[t]he American government interpreted the aspiration for building an independent nation as an exclusive ‘communist conspiracy,’ and thus took responsibility for killing innocent people, as in the case of [the] My Lai incident in Vietnam.” [1]

Thanks to the U.S. war on Korea, Korea to this day remains a country divided in half, with no prospects for unification anytime soon. Kim explains that the Korean War

“was a bridge to connect the old type of massacres under colonialism and the new types of state terrorism and political massacre during the Cold War. . . .   And the mass killings committed by US soldiers in the Korean War marked the inception of military interventions by the US in the Third World at the cost of enormous civilian deaths.”

Pyongyang totally destroyed

Similarly, the U.S. objective in Vietnam was the destruction of any prospect of an intact, independent state from being created. As Jean-Paul Sartre wrote as part of the International War Crimes Tribunal that he and Bertrand Russell chaired after the war, the U.S. gave the Vietnamese a stark choice: either accept capitulation in which the country would be severed in half, with one half run by a U.S. client, or be subjected to near total annihilation. [2] Sartre wrote that, even in the former case, in which there would be a “cutting in two of a sovereign state . . . [t]he national unit of ‘Vietnam’ would not be physically eliminated, but it would no longer exist economically, politically or culturally.”

Of course, in the latter case, Vietnam would suffer physical elimination; bombed “’back to the Stone Age’” as the U.S. threatened. As we know, the Vietnamese did not capitulate, and therefore suffered near-total destruction of their country at the hands of the United States. Meanwhile, for good measure, the U.S. simultaneously bombed both Cambodia and Laos back to the Stone Age as well.

To understand the purpose behind such violent and destructive actions, we need look no farther than the U.S.’s own post-WWII policy statements, as well articulated by George Kennan image right) serving as the State Department’s Director of Policy Planning in 1948:

We must be very careful when we speak of exercising “leadership” in Asia. We are deceiving ourselves and others when we pretend to have answers to the problems, which agitate many of these Asiatic peoples. Furthermore, we have about 50% of the world’s wealth but only 6.3 of its population. This disparity is particularly great as between ourselves and the peoples of Asia. In this situation, we cannot fail to be the object of envy and resentment. Our real task in the coming period is to devise a pattern of relationships, which will permit us to maintain this position of disparity without positive detriment to our national security. To do so we will have to dispense with all sentimentality and daydreaming; and our attention will have to be concentrated everywhere on our immediate national objectives.

We need not deceive ourselves that we can afford today the luxury of altruism and world benefaction…In the face of this situation we would be better off to dispense now with a number of the concepts which have underlined our thinking with regard to the Far East. We should dispense with the aspiration to ‘be liked’ or to be regarded as the repository of a high-minded international altruism. We should stop putting ourselves in the position of being our brothers’ keeper and refrain from offering moral and ideological advice. We should cease to talk about vague — and for the Far East — unreal objectives such as human rights, the raising of the living standards, and democratization. The day is not far off when we are going to have to deal in straight power concepts. The less we are hampered by idealistic slogans, the better.

While it would have been impossible for the U.S. to continue to monopolize a full half of the world’s wealth after Europe, Japan, China and the USSR inevitably got up upon their feet after WWII, the U.S. has nonetheless done an amazing job of controlling an unjustifiable and disproportionate amount of the world’s resources.

Thus, currently, the U.S. has about 5% of the world’s population, and consumes about 25% of its resources. An article in Scientific American, citing the Sierra Club’s Dave Tilford, explains that,

“‘[w]ith less than 5 percent of world population, the U.S. uses one-third of the world’s paper, a quarter of the world’s oil, 23 percent of the coal, 27 percent of the aluminum, and 19 percent of the copper . . . .   Our per capita use of energy, metals, minerals, forest products, fish, grains, meat, and even fresh water dwarfs that of people living in the developing world.’” [3]

The only way the U.S. has been able to achieve this impressive, though morally reprehensible, feat has been to undermine, many times fatally, the ability of independent states to exist, defend themselves and to protect their own resources from foreign plunder. This is why the U.S. has teamed up with the world’s most deplorable forces in destroying independent states around the globe.

Just to name a few examples, since 1996, the U.S. has supported Rwandan and Ugandan forces in invading the Democratic Republic of Congo, making that country ungovernable and plundering its incredible natural resources.   The fact that around 6 million innocents have been murdered in the process is of no matter, and certainly not to the main stream press which rarely mentions the DRC. In Colombia, the U.S. has backed a repressive military and right-wing paramilitaries for decades in destabilizing whole swaths of the Colombian countryside, and in assisting multinational corporations, and especially extractive industries, in displacing around 7 million people from their homes and land, all in order to exploit Colombia’s vast oil, coal and gold reserves. Again, this receives barely a word in the mainstream press.

Of course, in the Middle East, Northern Africa and Afghanistan, the U.S. has been teaming up with Saudi Arabia and radical Islamist forces – forces the U.S. itself has dubbed “terrorist” – in undermining and destroying secular states.

As far back as the 1970’s, the U.S. began supporting the mujahidin in attacking the secular, Marxist state of Afghanistan in order to destroy that state and also to fatally weaken the Soviet state by, in the words of Zbigniew Brzezinski, “drawing the Russians into the Afghan trap . . . [and] giving to the USSR its Vietnam war.” Afghanistan may never recover from the devastation wrought by that fateful decision of the U.S. and its subsequent intervention which is now into its 15th year and counting. As we know full well, the USSR never recovered either, and the U.S. is trying mightily to prevent post-Soviet Russia from becoming a strong rival state again.

Meanwhile, in Libya, the U.S. again partnered with jihadists in 2011 in overthrowing and indeed smashing a state which used its oil wealth to guarantee the best living standards of any country in Africa while assisting independence struggles around the world. In this way, Libya, which under Qaddafi also happened to be one of the staunchest enemies of Al-Qaeda in the world, presented a double threat to U.S. foreign policy aims. Post-intervention Libya is now a failed state with little prospects of being able to secure its oil wealth for its own people again, much less for any other peoples in the Third World. And so, mission accomplished!

In addition, as we learned from Seymour Hersh back in 2007, the U.S. began at that time to try to weaken Iran and Syria by supporting Sunni extremist groups to subvert those countries. [4] As Hersh explained:

To undermine Iran, which is predominantly Shiite, the Bush Administration has decided, in effect, to reconfigure its priorities in the Middle East. In Lebanon, the Administration has cooperated with Saudi Arabia’s government, which is Sunni, in clandestine operations that are intended to weaken Hezbollah, the Shiite organization that is backed by Iran. The U.S. has also taken part in clandestine operations aimed at Iran and its ally Syria. A by-product of these activities has been the bolstering of Sunni extremist groups that espouse a militant vision of Islam and are hostile to America and sympathetic to Al Qaeda.One contradictory aspect of the new strategy is that, in Iraq, most of the insurgent violence directed at the American military has come from Sunni forces, and not from Shiites.

The U.S. continues to intervene in Syria in a way which prevents the Syrian state from achieving a decisive victory against the various militant groups it is fighting – some of which the U.S. itself admits are terrorists – while at the same time targeting some of these same militant groups themselves, thereby preventing either side of the conflict from coming out on top. Indeed, as we have learned, the CIA and the Pentagon have even been backing opposing militant groups that are fighting each other! [5] The result is a drawn-out war which threatens to leave Syria in chaos and ruins for the foreseeable future.

This would seem to be an insane course of action for the U.S. to take, and indeed it is, but there is method to the madness. The U.S. appears to be intentionally spreading chaos throughout strategic portions of the world; leaving virtually no independent state standing to protect their resources, especially oil, from Western exploitation. And, this goal is being achieved with resounding success, while also achieving the subsidiary goal of enriching the behemoth industrial-military complex.

Jose Marti once said, “there are two kinds of people in the world: those who love and create, and those who hate and destroy.” There is no doubt that the U.S. has proven itself to be of the latter kind; indeed, the very nature of U.S. foreign policy is destruction. Given this, it is at best foolish and naïve for people of any political stripe, but particularly self-defined leftists, to put any stock in the notion that the U.S. is acting in the defense of human rights, democracy or any such lofty goals in intervening militarily abroad.

There is only one proper goal, then, of people of good will – to oppose U.S. military intervention with every fiber of our being.

Notes.

[1] https://www.academia.edu/6417696/Forgotten_war_forgotten_massacres–the_Korean_War_1950-1953_as_licensed_mass_killings

[2] http://raetowest.org/vietnam-war-crimes/russell-vietnam-war-crimes-tribunal-1967.html#v1217-Sartre-on-genocide

[3] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/american-consumption-habits/

[4] http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2007/03/05/the-redirection

[5] http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-cia-pentagon-isis-20160327-story.html

Daniel Kovalik teaches International Human Rights at the University of Pittsburgh School of Law.

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First posted on Global Research in December 2019

November 2019, thousands of short-tailed shearwaters birds migrating from Alaska were washing up dead on Sydney’s iconic beaches.

Extremely low cod numbers have lead feds to close the Gulf of Alaska fishery for the first time ever. In an unprecedented response to historically low numbers of Pacific cod, the federal cod fishery in the Gulf of Alaska is closing for the 2020 season. It’s a decision that came as little surprise, but it’s the first time the fishery was closed due to concerns of low stock. “We’re on the knife’s edge of this over-fished status,” North Pacific Fisheries Management Council member Nicole Kimball said during talks in Anchorage Friday afternoon. It’s not over-fishing to blame for the die-off, but rather, climate change. Warming ocean temperatures linked to climate change are wreaking havoc on a number of Alaska’s fisheries, worrying biologists, locals and fishermen with low returns that jeopardize fishing livelihoods. A stock assessment this fall put Gulf cod populations at a historic low, with “next to no” new eggs, according to NOAA research biologist Steve Barbeaux, who authored the report.

Up until the emergence of a marine heatwave known as “the blob” in 2014, Gulf cod was doing well. But the heatwave caused ocean temperatures to rise 4-5 degrees. Young cod started dying off, scientists said. “A lot of the impact on the population was due to that first heatwave that we haven’t recovered from,” Barbeaux said during an interview last month. Following the first heatwave, cod numbers crashed by more than half, from 113,830 metric tons in 2014 to 46,080 (a loss of almost 68,000) metric tons in 2017. The decline was steady from there.

Last month The Big Wobble reported more misery for Alaskan pink salmon fisheries. Prince William Sound Science Center field season was marked by a low flow and high pre-spawn mortality. This year, virtually no rain led to extremely low flows and field crews observed unprecedented pre-spawning die-offs and unusually late migration into the streams. According to the Prince William Sound Science Center, the fish finally started, what was for many, an ill-fated journey into the streams after some rain in early September. The rain stopped and the rivers dried up again. Soon thousands of fish were restricted to tide pools without enough water to return to the bays. They all suffocated. “During the first 10 days of September, our dead fish count in one of our streams rose from virtually none to nearly 30,000 dead pink salmon, all dying prior to spawning”. “Our field crews estimated 10,000 died over a single night. We have never documented anything like that in the past.”

In November 2019, thousands of short-tailed shearwaters birds migrating from Alaska were washing up dead on Sydney’s iconic beaches and the bird deaths had nothing to do with the massive wildfires in the area, thousands more, short-tailed shearwaters were dying out at sea, in what was confirmation of the incredible fish shortages in the Pacific Ocean. The corpses had been spotted at several shorelines including Bondi, Manly and Cronulla. The birds were migrating back to southern Australia to breed after spending the summer in Alaska. But, according to experts, a higher number than usual are dying on the way due to a lack of food. The birds need to be at full strength to make the 14,000km trip over the Pacific but the krill and other fish they feed on have apparently dwindled due to sea temperatures rising.

BirdLife Australia has rendered the problem a ‘crisis’. In a statement on its website, the group says: ‘For the fifth consecutive year, the sea surface temperatures off Alaska have been unusually warm, which has led to a dire shortage of the shearwaters’ marine prey, resulting in thousands of dead shearwaters being washed ashore along Alaska’s beaches. ‘According to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, they died of starvation. ‘It wasn’t a single event, though; instead, it was a series of catastrophic die-offs. ‘Starting in late June, these die-offs continued along different sections of the Alaskan coast, occurring progressively further south, through into August. ‘Numerous shearwaters also washed up on Russia’s Chukotka Peninsula as well. ‘Although many thousands of birds were found dead and dying on the beach, this is likely the tip of the iceberg.’

Credit NOAA. The Pacific Blob has returned and is causing havoc for marine life.

It is the tip of the iceberg!

2019 Alaska Seabird Die-off

In May 2019, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and the National Park Service (NPS) began receiving reports of dead and dying seabirds from the northern Bering and Chukchi seas, including near Bering Land Bridge National Preserve.

From late June to early August, thousands of Short-tailed Shearwaters were reported dead and washing up on beaches in the Bristol Bay region, or observed weak and attempting to feed on salmon gillnets in inland waters (TBW Quote: most of the salmon had died prior to spawning). By mid-August, the shearwater die-off had extended north, in smaller numbers but widespread locations, into the northern Bering and Chukchi seas along the coasts of Alaska and the Chukotka Peninsula of Russia. Puffins, murres, and auklets were also being reported, but at much lower numbers than shearwaters. Additionally, live Short-tailed Shearwaters have been observed in large numbers this August in the Gulf of Alaska, along the coasts of Glacier Bay and Kenai Fjords national parks, and bays of Kodiak Island. It is unusual to see this species in high abundance in these areas, as it is typically offshore and comes from the southern hemisphere to forage in the Bering and Chukchi seas during the summer and fall.

Historically, seabird die-offs have occurred occasionally in Alaska; however, large die-off events are now occurring each year since 2015. (TBW Quote: millions of small sea birds have been reported dead since 2015, this year it’s Short-tailed Shearwaters but recent years have seen puffins, murres, and auklets dying thought to be due to starvation).  

Consistently, dead birds examined from the Bering and Chukchi seas during these recent die-offs were determined to have died due to starvation. Seabird carcasses from the 2019 die-off events were collected from multiple locations and sent to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Wildlife Health Center for examination and testing. Initial results indicate starvation as the cause of death for most locations. However, in southeast Alaska, exposure to saxitoxin (a biotoxin associated with paralytic shellfish poisoning) was linked in June to a localized die-off of breeding Arctic Terns.

The Big Wobble has been reporting an unprecedented seabird die-off in Alaska and Canada since 2015. Climate change is considered by scientists as a significant contributor to seabird declines with reports of British species such as terns and kittiwakes facing an uncertain future as sea temperatures rise. Puffins, in particular, have suffered enormous losses in recent years and a report from the International Union for Conservation of Nature in April warned the iconic species was at risk of extinction. Thousands of dead seabirds have been found washed ashore on sites from islands in the Bering Sea to villages north of the Bering Strait, signs of another large die-off in the warmed-up waters of the North Pacific Ocean. (The actual numbers will be in the millions as most will die at sea.) The dead birds are mostly northern fulmars and short-tailed shearwaters, species that migrate long distances to spend summers in waters off Alaska and other northern regions, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service reported. Also in the mix are some kittiwakes, murres and auklets, the federal agency said.

The cause is being investigated. Necropsies so far show that the birds are emaciated – with no food in their stomachs or intestines and little or no fat on their bodies. “Right now, we know that they are starving to death and can’t hold their heads above water, and they’re drowning,” said Ken Stenek, a teacher in Shishmaref and volunteer in a program that monitors seabirds.

The precise toll is unclear. The new die-off follows a massive loss of common murres in 2015 and 2016, 2017 and 2018, the biggest murre die-off on record in Alaska, and a precursor to near-total reproductive failures for murres in the Gulf of Alaska and Bering. It also follows the deaths of thousands of puffins found last fall on St. Paul Island in the Pribilofs and, prior to that, mass deaths of murres and auklets along the U.S. West Coast. In each death wave, starving birds have left emaciated carcasses, and each wave has been associated with unusually warm marine waters.

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Video: What Did Malcolm X Really Think about the Democratic Party?

February 9th, 2020 by Timothy Alexander Guzman

First published by Global Research in February 2017

“I’ll have those n*ggers voting Democratic for the next 200 years” –U.S. President Lyndon B. Johnson to two governors on Air Force One according to Ronald Kessler’s “Inside the White House”

Malcolm X was a controversial figure during the civil rights era.  If Malcolm X were alive today he would have been disappointed with the African-Americans and others who overwhelmingly vote for the Democrat party. Why? Because Malcolm X often spoke out against the American establishment, in particular, the Democratic Party for their involvement in the destruction of the African-American community and how they are used as “tools” for political power over their Republican rivals. There is no doubt that he would have continued to expose the hypocrisy of the Democratic Party and the Republican Party and how they have failed the African-American community for decades.

Malcolm X was not a Republican and he certainly was not a Democrat as he once said “We won’t organize any black man to be a Democrat or a Republican because both of them have sold us out. Both of them have sold us out; both parties have sold us out. Both parties are racist, and the Democratic Party is more racist than the Republican Party.” Before and even after the Civil Rights Act was established in 1964 under the leadership of Martin Luther King Jr. and the well-known racist President Lyndon B. Johnson, racism in America was still at an all-time high.

Malcolm X gave a controversial speech on December 1st, 1963 speech at the Manhattan Center in New York City called ‘God’s Judgment of White America (The Chickens Come Home to Roost)’ following the assassination of John F. Kennedy which earned him a 90 day suspension from the Nation of Islam:

In this deceitful American game of power politics, the Negroes (i.e., the race problem, the integration and civil rights issues) are nothing but tools, used by one group of whites called Liberals against another group of whites called Conservatives, either to get into power or to remain in power. Among whites here in America, the political teams are no longer divided into Democrats and Republicans. The whites who are now struggling for control of the American political throne are divided into “liberal” and “conservative” camps. The white liberals from both parties cross party lines to work together toward the same goal, and white conservatives from both parties do likewise.  

The white liberal differs from the white conservative only in one way: the liberal is more deceitful than the conservative. The liberal is more hypocritical than the conservative. Both want power, but the white liberal is the one who has perfected the art of posing as the Negro’s friend and benefactor; and by winning the friendship, allegiance, and support of the Negro, the white liberal is able to use the Negro as a pawn or tool in this political “football game” that is constantly raging between the white liberals and white conservatives.

Politically the American Negro is nothing but a football and the white liberals control this mentally dead ball through tricks of tokenism: false promises of integration and civil rights. In this profitable game of deceiving and exploiting the political politician of the American Negro, those white liberals have the willing cooperation of the Negro civil rights leaders. These “leaders” sell out our people for just a few crumbs of token recognition and token gains. These “leaders” are satisfied with token victories and token progress because they themselves are nothing but token leaders

Malcolm X was asked about the assassination of JFK and said that the U.S. government had assassinated various foreign leaders including Congolese Prime Minister Patrice Lumumba who was a target of the CIA. Lumumba’s government was destabilized in 1960 which led to his abduction and was tortured and murdered by January 1961. Malcolm X had suggested that JFK’s assassination was a “case of the chickens coming home to roost” and that those who commit crimes against others will come back to haunt the perpetrators of those same crimes. The Nation of Islam in Chicago made a decision that after the 90-day suspension, Malcolm X would be suspended indefinitely.

However, Malcolm X had announced his departure from the Nation of Islam and announced the establishment of the Muslim Mosque Inc, a religious group that would eventually get involved in the electoral political process and community organizing for black civil rights. However, many people especially in the U.S. and to an extent across the world do not know much about Malcolm X. For starters, he was not a supporter of the Democratic Party as he was convinced that they were the party of racists. Was he correct to point out that the Democratic Party had racists within their ranks? Consider the 33rd President of the United States Harry S. Truman, a Democrat who wrote a letter to his future wife Bess regarding his thoughts about African-Americans and Chinese nationals:

I think one man is just as good as another so long as he’s not a n*gger or a Chinaman. Uncle Will says that the Lord made a White man from dust, a n*gger from mud, then He threw up what was left and it came down a Chinaman. He does hate Chinese and Japs. So do I. It is race prejudice, I guess. But I am strongly of the opinion Negroes ought to be in Africa, Yellow men in Asia and White men in Europe and America

The late Democratic Senator from West Virginia, Robert Byrd wrote a letter to Senator Theodore Bilbo from Mississippi in 1944 and said:

I shall never fight in the armed forces with a Negro by my side … Rather I should die a thousand times, and see Old Glory trampled in the dirt never to rise again, than to see this beloved land of ours become degraded by race mongrels, a throwback to the blackest specimen from the wilds

History books in American public schools do not teach or even mention what Malcolm X represented as an anti-establishment revolutionary who never voted for either political party because he saw the blatant hypocrisy. Larry Elder, a radio show host, writer, attorney and a registered Republican who grew up in the poverty stricken Pico-Union and South Central areas in Los Angeles wrote an article on what Malcolm X would say about African-Americans who overwhelmingly vote for the Democratic Party today:

What would Malcolm X say about today’s 95 percent black vote? Did the Democratic Party keep its promises to promote family stability, push education and encourage job creation?  The black community, over the last 50 years, has suffered an unparalleled breakdown in family unity. Even during slavery when marriage was illegal, a black child was more likely than today to be raised under a roof with his or her biological mother and father. According to census data, from 1890 to 1940, said economist Walter Williams, a black child was slightly more likely to grow up with married parents than a white child. What happened? 

When President Lyndon Johnson launched the War on Poverty in 1965, 24 percent of black babies were born to unmarried mothers. Today that number is 72 percent. Then-presidential candidate Barack Obama said in 2008: “Children who grow up without a father are five times more likely to live in poverty and commit crime; nine times more likely to drop out of schools and 20 times more likely to end up in prison. They are more likely to have behavioral problems, or run away from home, or become teenage parents themselves.” 

Not only has family breakdown coincided with increased government spending, but the money has not done much to reduce the rate of poverty. From 1965 until now, the government has spent $15-20 trillion to fight poverty. In 1949, the poverty rate stood at 34 percent. By 1965, it was cut in half, to 17 percent — all before the so-called War on Poverty. But after the war began in 1965, poverty began to flat line. It appears that the generous welfare system allowed women to, in essence, marry the government — and it allowed men to abandon their financial and moral responsibility, while surrendering the dignity that comes from being a good provider. Psychologists call dependency “learned helplessness”

“Humanitarian Intervention” and the Democratic Party

The Democratic Party (founded on January 8th, 1829) and the Republican Party (founded on March 20th, 1854) have had their fair share in foreign and domestic wars since their founding. Since World War II, the Democratic Party has participated in numerous foreign interventions as they have often proved that they can be as hawkish as their Republican counterparts as Reagan and the Bush family. It was the Democratic Party of Harry S. Truman who authorized the use of the atomic bomb on the populations of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The Truman administration also started “The Forgotten War” known as the Korean War where Truman called the U.S. intervention a “Police Action” under the authorization of the United Nations (which was dominated by the U.S.) due to North Korea invading South Korea. The U.S. and the United Nations backed South Korea while China and the Soviet Union backed North Korea during the war. The ‘Truman Doctrine’ also led to the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. The ‘Truman Doctrine’ originally implemented the Marshall Plan to rebuild Europe after the war and helped establish NATO to counter the Soviets in 1949. The Truman Doctrine also provided economic and military aid to Greece and Turkey to help fight the “communist threat.” 

The Democrats became even more militaristic with the Kennedy administration with their funding and training of Cuban exiles for the failed Bay of Pigs invasion in an attempt to remove the Castro government. The Kennedy administration also deployed nuclear missiles in Turkey which presented a direct threat to the USSR that eventually led to the Cuban Missile Crisis. Lyndon B. Johnson’s Vietnam War, Bill Clinton’s war on Somalia and Serbia to Obama’s destruction of Libya and the support of the Islamic State terrorists to oust President Bashar al-Assad of Syria and elsewhere.

The Democratic Party of today is more in sync with tribalism than they are for any real democracy. Under the Obama administration, Libya was destroyed and the Democrats said nothing. If it was George W. Bush or Donald Trump today that authorized NATO’s invasion of Libya, the liberal Democrats would be protesting in the streets. But since it was a Democrat, it was for the greater good, a “humanitarian intervention.” Some people who vote for the Democrats actually think that the Democratic Party is some sort of revolutionary resistance against the Republican Party however; both parties are the core of the political establishment closely aligned with special interest groups such as the major corporations, the Military-Industrial Complex, international banking cartels and other powerful figures and institutions behind the scenes.

Before his assassination, Malcolm X was already seen as a revolutionary figure who defied the American establishment at home and abroad. Democrats should read about the history of Malcolm X and learn the truth about the Democratic Party and possibly the next time they vote, it will be for a third or fourth party candidate that stands for a real democracy and justice that would dismantle the two-party system and the power of American Empire from within. But as long as the American public continues to be brainwashed by the mainstream-media, the education system and the political establishment from both parties, the American Empire will run amok until its inevitable collapse.

Here is a segment from Malcolm X on what he thought about the Democratic Party:

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Mobility and class are deeply entangled. Not only because one’s potential for mobility often has to do with one’s economic position, but also because a society built on today’s mobility paradigm – automobility – directly contributes to growing economic and social differences.

A society which puts the car on a pedestal quite obviously favours motorists. Another obvious fact is that white high-income and middle-aged men are an over-represented group among motorists. And the opposite is true among public transport users. But, a society that prioritizes motoring, and looks at ever-growing mobility as an almost magical recipe for development, increases the differences between its citizens and different parts in other ways as well.

The current traffic hierarchy, with the car on top and with public transport, bikers and pedestrians at the bottom, manifests itself in the fact that these means of conveyance are given different amounts of space and resources. With the car on top of the traffic hierarchy we get a society built on automobility: a world where our lives, to a far too great extent, are steered by cars.

This article is written to clarify how the current traffic hierarchy manifests itself and what its consequences are: a society built on automobility does not only pose grave danger from an ecological point-of-view, it also enhances the current notions toward greater economic and social segregation.

By highlighting the problems with the current traffic hierarchy and starting to map out the edges of another way of planning and handling movement we hope and believe that we can also give some clues on how to handle other societal problems.

The car is pitching us toward each other. Who has not experienced the feeling of putting oneself in a car and suddenly being transformed into a motorist? The pure act of putting oneself behind the wheel seems, for almost everyone, to lead to egotistic behaviour, a situation where everyone is trying to gain something on someone else’s behalf. While driving a car, one’s fellow human beings (other drivers, public transport users, pedestrians, bikers) become nothing more than obstacles. Who cannot, honestly, recognize the almost aggressive and competitive feeling that the car produces in oneself? Since we do not want to encourage this kind of behaviour, and since we are confident that one is not born a motorist, but rather becomes one, we strongly believe that the risk of people becoming motorists has to be minimized.

Because of this we do not only want to change the order of the traffic hierarchy and take the car down from its pedestal. Rather, we want a society built on totally different premises. A society where no one is forced into motorism, whether passively or actively. A society where proximity and availability to what people need to satisfy their needs and desires are put at the forefront.

Automobility

Cruel town, it’s a cruel town / Cold people cruel town
Cruel town, it’s a cruel town / If you fall, you stay down
Cold city, cruel system / Nothing’s made for people.
—Broder Daniel

Automobility is a concept used to interpret and describe those institutions and practices that organizes, supports and shapes the cars movement through, and its impact on, our societies. It is also the name of the discourse used to legitimize the car as society’s engine of progress by connecting it with ideas about freedom, development, individuality, and independence. Automobility is, in short, one of the founding socio-technological institutions through which modernity is organized.

Automobility is a compound of the words autonomy and mobility, and of course something of a pun since auto might as well be read as automobile. In this context it shall be understood as connected to autonomy, and as a concept to describe our societies view on mobility and autonomy: you achieve independence through mobility, and true mobility can only be achieved independently. Ideas strongly connected to the liberal ideology that proclaims us all as individuals – free to choose our own way of life – an ideology that in its most extreme form denies the very existence of society. But, just as the idea of the free individual is created and maintained by a specific formation of society, the idea of automobility needs to be produced and maintained. Without roads, the auto-industry and the oil-industry no one would use cars. Automobility is a self-contradiction in so far as motorists are not at all free to choose their own ways, but rather have to drive on roads built and planned by politicians, to workplaces, and from homes, located in specific places for political and economical reasons.

It is rather ironic that the car to such great extent has come to be known as the key to freedom and individuality, that it has become something of the holy grail for modern liberalism, when it is in fact so interlocked with a range of public as well as private systems of control. A countless number of regulations have to be in place to make mass-motoring function even as badly as it does today: how fast you can drive, where you can drive, in which direction you should drive, where you can stop, how much your car can emit and how safe it has to be are just a few examples of the regulations surrounding you every time you seat yourself in a car. To make this function, an enormous regime of control has to be in place to discipline drivers as well as non-drivers to behave accordingly and obey the rules. The freedom on the road has developed hand-in-hand with a deepening of the control of movement.

The current regime of automobility carries a number of unsolvable, and inherent, destructive tendencies.

Mass-motoring is congestion: automobility is based on a society which subsidises and encourages all of its citizens to travel by car, but if everyone does that automobilty soon turns into immobility. Traffic jams and gridlocks are the logical consequence of a car-society. Mass-motoring is its own worst enemy. The motorists freedom requires mass-motoring, but at the same time mass-motoring is intruding on the motorists freedom.

Mass-motoring is over-exploitation: our climate, our natural resources, ourselves, our cities, even the whole geo-political system has been hit by acute crises because of mass-motoring. The climatic changes gallop in tune to the roaring of engines, our cities are consumed by cars that leave less and less space for those living in them. Finite oil production and peak oil lead to geopolitical crises, even wars, to maintain access to cheap oil. Not to speak of the more than 1.2 million people killed every year as a direct result of traffic accidents.

It is important to call attention to the fact that the problems mentioned above are not some occasional disruptions in an otherwise well-functioning system. Because it is in fact the opposite: this is the normal, day-to-day, functioning of the system. Our roads and cars, built to support automobility, are killing over 3,000 persons every single day. But when was the last time you heard someone in power criticising mass-motoring as a system? That someone in the current political climate should proclaim a war on motoring appears totally unrealistic. Even though traffic safety of course is something good, it is also a way of trying to solve a problem by curing its symptoms instead of its causes. Car related deaths are apparently not seen as a political issue, rather there is a total resignation to these murder machines swarming our planet.

It is quite obvious that automobility is neither rational nor, in reality, a well-functioning system to organize movement. But that is not enough – even on a conceptual level it is, in itself, an impossibility. What is made out to be a system of freedom and independence is in fact based upon an intricate web of control.

Public mobility

They paved paradise, and put up a parking lot. —Joni Mitchell

Even though the concept of automobility is strongly connected with mass-motoring it is important to understand how these thoughts affect all parts of how we plan our societies. Automobility is based on an interpretation of the car-society, but can and should be used to understand how we view the individual and her rights and possibilities to move around. In a society so fixated with the idea of the free and autonomous individual it can be hard to see how so many of our notions are shaped by this idea. This makes it even more important to really grasp the concept of automobility and apply it when planning society. The concept of automobility is, when used correctly, a great tool to analyse society and to understand how traffic planning can be used to conduct radical and green politics.

To use a hands-on example on how automobility can be used as a radical tool of interpretation we turn to the debate around pod cars, but the same arguments and interpretations can of course be used to understand other subjects as well.

To summarize the discussions about pod cars: we acknowledge a problem, car traffic stands for a growing share of our carbon dioxide emissions and contributes greatly to the deterioration of our cities. Public transport is said to be the cure for cars, but how do we get people to use it? Our gut feeling often tells us that to control motorism we should adapt the public transport to the needs of the motorist – when it is in fact just those needs that are the problem. Pod cars might, with an emphasis on might, entice some people to leave their car at home. But will they change the structure of our cities? Hardly!

It is not so surprising that certain people from the green parties, liberals and the pod car industry advocate pod cars and by doing so enforce the idea of automobility. To detach the idea of the individual from a broader context – society – is a liberal project. But a radical movement that strives for real change must have as a virtue to always try to think one step further. And someone who does not challenge the liberal idea of automobility is not someone who wants to travel somewhere unseen.

The idea of the free individual with power to rule over his own life is a product of a certain society, and so is the idea of automobility. It is dependent on the politics that creates it, defines its limits and masks its inherent antagonism: namely that your mobility is based on somebody else’s immobility. The car is only the key to freedom as long as society is left uncounted for, hence all car adverts taking place in the desert or on empty mountain roads.

Instead of changing public transport to fit the needs of the motorist we should expand it. Instead of trying to individualize it we should strengthen its function as the social hub our lives and society revolves around.

If we, as a modern, green and radical left want to change our societies we have to challenge our heritage of putting too much faith in “development.” We must challenge ideas such as that one car each should have something to do with freedom or equality. We have to begin thinking about how to transform our societies in a direction where less mobility is needed. This does not mean that we should stop moving, but that repetitive, meaningless commuting should decline and that we should try to organize the travelling required from the knowledge that we all, together, constitute society.

A start is not to just accept, but to happily affirm the public in public transport.

Now we have come so far as to have identified a huge problem in how we view the relation between traffic, politics and cities, but how should we move on to solve this problem? In the long run we have to move away from today’s mobility paradigm and replace it with something like a proximity or accessibility paradigm. Instead of having one road administration and one rail administration we could introduce an accessibility administration which would look at the broader picture when developing or rebuilding cities, so that availability to what people need to satisfy their needs and desires are put at the forefront. An administration that does not see mobility as something good or desirable in itself.

This is something that will take a long time to see the impact of, and demands big changes in the way we plan and build our cities. But in the mean-time there are a lot of smaller changes to be done to reduce car-traffic and increase the share of trips made with public transport, on foot or by bike.

One suggestion, put forward by a commission appointed by the American congress is to complement the gasoline tax with a vehicle miles traveled tax. A tax which could be used to show that it is not only the emissions from cars that is the problem, but rather that the problem lies in the sole act of driving.

We can learn from Copenhagen, where they have gradually removed parking lots and car lanes, which has rendered a reduction in car traffic that has been easy for drivers to cope with since they have been given a reasonable amount of time to change their ways of getting around. While the number of cars has been reduced, the number of people moving around in the city centre has not. By reducing the amount of parking spaces with around two percent per year space has been freed to use for human activities such as pedestrian streets, bike lanes, public squares and street side cafes.

Other substantial, cheap and relatively easy to implement measures to reduce car-traffic are: congestion charges (given that the surplus is invested in public transport), an expansion of the network of pedestrian streets and less car lanes to make room for separate lanes for buses and bikes. We should also aim to better control illegal parking and build or expand systems of public bikes to integrate them with public transport.

Another way of making public transport more attractive to motorists is to make it fare free. By doing this, one also demonstrates how public transport, in itself, is sort of the antithesis to automobility. By making public transport free at the point of entry it takes on a qualitatively different shape, it becomes a true public space, a social and common wealth for all to use. Where the car is a private space and every new driver becomes an obstacle for the other motorists, public transport is a social space which grows and becomes better the more people are using it.

By making public transport free and available for everyone we are truly realising the potential for public transport as common space. When we are emphasising the public in public transport we are doing so because we love to live with people around us. But also because a living public space is a pre-requisite for people to feel safe and to use it: individual vulnerableness diminishes when we are surrounded by other people. Public transport should be an integrated part of the society we all are living in, and should therefore reflect its plurality of social relations and be available and inviting to all of its citizens.

Accessibility

Individual freedom in itself, without connection to your community, your family
and your friends, ends up being empty and meaningless.
I realized that those people I put in that car fifteen years ago where out there
trying to make a connection.
—Bruce Springsteen

Now that we have identified the problems with the current mobility paradigm and shown what measures to take to start to replace car-traffic with public and social ways of moving around it is time to discuss the bigger question: how do we change our way of planning from mobility to accessibility?

First and foremost, we must recapture the belief in politics. We need to regain public control over our cities so that we, together, can decide to say no when private interests want to exploit and build in ways that will ruin the possibilities of planning for a good city structure. We must revitalize our local communities that have been totally shredded by mass-motoring, separating of functions, privatization and segregation. But without a belief in the political capacity to heal these wounds we can not even start to dream of a different city.

An important step is to fully integrate public transport in the city planning, since both of them affect and are affected by each other. By controlling the city’s spatial expansion we get the opportunity to minimize the number of necessary trips that have to be taken, and also make sure that the public transport becomes a viable option for all citizens.

People speak a lot about the “flâneur city” today, more or less everyone seems to agree that our inner cities are in acute need of redevelopment. Less cars, more trams, bikers and revitalized public space are on the agenda. There is of course nothing wrong with this, but why is the focus always on the inner city? Most of us are living in the suburbs and the change has to start where we live. What we need is not more Jan Gehl-inspired changes of the inner cities occupied by the urban middle classes – or rather – those changes will happen anyways, so let us concentrate on other things.

To be able to defy the current mobility paradigm and start to build cities where everyone’s access to the good things in society is put at the centre, we have to start in our own suburbs. Of course we should learn from the best practices of inner city redevelopment, but the challenge in changing our suburbs are so much bigger than to make a few inner city pedestrian streets.

Exactly where to start is of course a question related to time and place, but it has to be connected to us living in the suburbs and our needs and wants. Lately we have seen a surge in community organizing as a response to the closing and externalization of local services. To cut down on public services such as schools as well as local stores is a logical consequence of a society obsessed with movement. That is also why the fight for living communities is so inspiring, and we should aim to develop and connect every single struggle for a local swimming hall or kindergarten, and understand them as struggles for everyone’s opportunity to satisfy their basic needs and desires where they live. Seen in this way all of these disparate attempts of community organizing can also be understood as working against automobility: as fights to stop the process where more and more local services are shut down with the motivation that people can transport themselves to similar services in other places.

By fighting for small improvements in the suburbs where we live we are also fighting against our dependency on transport. But just as much as this is a question of mobility, it is also a question of class. By recovering our local centres we can stop the current development where quality is segregated to inner cities. By introducing a principle of proximity for public services we are in extension making the overall quality of them better. Instead of making it possible for the better-off to pay extra and commute to a better school, a revitalization of proximity makes everyone organize for improvement where they live. In simple words: by letting the middle class in the residential area share schools and other public services with people from the blocks of rental apartments we are guaranteeing a raise in quality for everyone.

All of these changes also contributes to making our suburbs more lively even during those times of day when people are not going to or from work. Livable suburbs reduce our travelling needs and make us feel more safe than any private security guards, gated communities or surveillance cameras can do. The main source of feeling safe is to have people around us, it is actually no more complicated than that.

By filling our cities with open and welcoming public spaces we are filling our cities with life. By filling our cities with life we are making ourselves more open and welcoming. Changes in our cities render changes in our behaviour toward each other.

Instead of looking at commuting and other trips as something we “have to do,” something separated from other activities, we should see how they are connected with our means of living good lives. A city disintegrated by meaningless and imposed movement are also disintegrating our lives. A broken town is shattering our lives into different, disparate, pieces and alienates us from each other and ourselves. A society where everything has to have its own space and its own time – sleep, work, learn, play, shop, socialize – diminishes our ways of living.

This separation of functions may, just like the division of labour, be the dream of a planner or a manager, but it is time to face the fact that we have let this go way too far. Because who does not want to be able to play, learn and work at the same time – and in the same place?

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Planka produced this pamphlet in 2010.

Planka.nu is a network of Swedish groups that work for free public transport. Apart from engaging in public debate, direct action, and guerrilla media, the network administers the “P-kassa,” a solidarity fund covering fines for people commonly known as fare-dodgers, although they are more aptly described as passengers in public transport engaged in an anti-fare strike. In 2008 Planka.nu started the international site www.FareFreePublicTransport.com, a meeting point for activists working for a free public transport.

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On 29 January WHO Director-General, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said that there was no reason to declare the outbreak of the coronavirus 2019-nCoV in China a pandemic risk. On 30 January, he declared the virus an international emergency, but made clear that there was no reason for countries to issue travel-advisories against travelling to China. Let me speculate – the ‘international emergency’ was declared at the request of Washington, and the comment against the travel-advisory was an addition by Dr. Tedros himself, as he realized that there was indeed no reason for panic, that China is doing wonders in stemming the virus from spreading and in detecting the virus early on.

In fact, Dr. Tedros has himself, as well as other high-ranking WHO officials, on various occasions praised China for her effort to contain the virus, the speed with which Wuhan (population of 11 million, capital of the center-eastern Province of Hubei) and China as a whole has reacted to the outbreak. The latest achievement – in 8 days China has built in Wuhan a 25,000 m2 special hospital for treatment of the coronavirus 2019-nCoV and possible mutations, with 1,000 beds, and for about 1,400 medical personnel, for a budget of the equivalent of US$ 43 million – equipped with state-of-the-art medical technology. No other country in the world would have been capable of such an achievement.

Nevertheless, and against WHO’s guidance, Washington immediately advised its citizens not to travel to China, and withdrew non-essential staff from US consulates and the Embassy in Beijing, thereby triggering an avalanche of similar reactions among Washington vassals around the globe – i.e. most of the European countries did likewise, many of them canceled their flights to China, as did of course the US.

Russia also closed her 4,200 km long border, working hand-in-hand with China in containing the virus. This also means that no infected Russian citizen may leave China. This is a concerted Chinese-Russian effort – spearheaded by China – to control and contain the epidemic.

The NYT and WashPo are on a vicious daily campaign to slander and vilify China with lies and manipulated information on how badly China is managing the disease, when the complete opposite is the case. Compare this to the common flu epidemic, that hits the US and most of the western countries, despite the fact that the US and Europe have virtually implemented carpet vaccination (in some US States and EU countries even compulsory).

Yet, this 2019 / 2020 flu season which is far from over, has so far claimed more than 8,400 lives alone in the US, more than 140,000 hospitalizations and more than 8 million infected people. The US has about 330 million people. Compare this to China’s 1.4 billion population – with, as of 3 February, an infection rate of less than 21,000, a death toll of 425 in China, and outside of China reported two, one in Hong Kong, another one in the Philippines.

Expand these statistics to Europe and you find similar figures. Of course, nobody talks about it. This is an annual occurrence – a bonanza for the western pharma industry. In the west, disease is business. The more the merrier. Once you are in the “medical mill”, it’s difficult to escape. “Specialists’ find always another reason to send you yet to another “specialist” – for another treatment. The ignorant patient has no option than to obey – after all its his health and life. In China it is the total opposite. The Chinese system does everything for its population’s health and well-being.

Yet, China bashing in one way or another seems to intensify by the day. Yesterday, 3 February, the UN in Geneva has issued an edict that all UN employees returning from China must stay home and work from home for 14 days, i.e. a dictated self-quarantine. And new contracts for Chinese staff will be temporarily suspended. This is all propaganda against China.

Quarantine is absolutely not necessary. Chinese biologists of the Office of Science and Technology of the city of Wuxi (south-eastern Jiangsu province, near Shanghai) have developed a test kit that can detect the 2019-nCoV virus within 8 – 15 minutes, similar to a pregnancy test. This test kit is available to the world. In fact, it has been used to test an airline crew member arriving from New York at the Zurich airport and feeling ill. Within less than an hour, the crew member was sent home – it was the common flu.

In China, where by now scientific evidence is mounting that the disease – like all the coronaviral diseases, including the 2019-nCoV predecessor SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, 2002 / 2003 also in China), and its Middle East equivalent, MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) are not only laboratory fabricated, but also patented. And so are many others, for example, Ebola and HIV. Both, SARS and 2019-nCoV are not only man-made, but they are also focusing on the Chinese race. That’s why you find very few people infected in the 18 countries where the coronavirus has spread.

It sounds like a strange coincidence that in October 2019 a simulation with precisely the coronavirus was carried out at the John Hopkins Institute in the US, funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the WEF (World Economic Forum), as well as the Pirbright Institute of the UK, one of the world’s few level 4 (highest security level) bio-warfare laboratories (for more details see China’s Coronavirus: A Global Health Emergency is Launched. What are the Facts”).

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The west’s ‘demolition’ priority seems to have shifted drastically from Russia to China. Why? – Because China is an ever-stronger economic power, soon to surpass the United States in absolute terms. Since mid-2017, China is already number one, measured by the PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) indicator, indeed the most important one, because it demonstrates what people can actually buy with the money.

China’s currency, the Yuan, is also advancing rapidly as a reserve currency, gradually replacing the US-dollar. When that happens, that real money, like the Chinese Yuan, based on a hard economy and covered by gold, against a “fake” fiat currency (based on nothing), like the US-dollar, is taking the lead, then the US-dollar hegemony is broken and the US economy doomed.

To prevent that from happening Washington is doing everything possible to destabilize China – see Hong Kong, Taiwan, the Uyghurs in China’s western Xinjiang Province, Tibet, the infamous Trump-inspired “tariff war” – and now the new coronavirus outbreak. The death toll is at present about 2.1% (of total cases of infection), down from 2.3% a week ago.

But that and the constant bashing with negative western propaganda, travel bans, border closures, flight bans – and more – plus the disease itself, the medical care, work absenteeism, medication and medical equipment, not to forget the specially-built 1,000-bed emergency hospital in Wuhan – and an 8% average decline at the Shanghai stock exchange, bear a considerable economic cost for China. So much so, that the People’s Bank of China (PBC) has recently injected some 1.2 billion yuan (about US$ 174 million equivalent) into the economy.

This new coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, may just be a trial. Imagine a stronger mutation of a coronavirus would be implanted into the Chinese population, say with a mortality rate of 10% to 20% or higher – it could cause real havoc. However, a stronger version may not be so easily controllable and directable – i.e. towards the Chinese race – and may risk spreading to the Caucasian race as well – meaning the executioner would risk committing mass suicide.

Remember the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, the deadliest in history, infected an estimated 500 million people worldwide – at that time about one-third of the planet’s population – and killed at least 50 million people (a death rate of 10%), including some 700,000 Americans.

While preparing for the worst, because Washington – with the help of its level 4 bio-war lab –  will not let go easily, China’s approach of endless inventive creation, avoiding conflicts, will outlive the aggressor.

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This article was originally published on New Eastern Outlook.

Peter Koenig is an economist and geopolitical analyst. He is also a water resources and environmental specialist. He worked for over 30 years with the World Bank and the World Health Organization around the world, including in Palestine, in the fields of environment and water. He lectures at universities in the US, Europe and South America. He writes regularly for Global Research; ICH; RT; Sputnik; PressTV; The 21st Century; Greanville Post; Defend Democracy Press, TeleSUR; The Saker Blog, the New Eastern Outlook (NEO); and other internet sites. He is the author of Implosion – An Economic Thriller about War, Environmental Destruction and Corporate Greed – fiction based on facts and on 30 years of World Bank experience around the globe. He is also a co-author of The World Order and Revolution! – Essays from the Resistance. He is a Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization.

What’s more likely to shape Canadian policy in the Hemisphere: human rights and democracy or bankers’ bottom-line?

Last week Venezuelan politician Juan Guaidó was fêted in Ottawa. The self-declared president met Canada’s Prime Minister, international development minister and foreign minister. Trudeau said, “I commend Interim President Guaidó for the courage and leadership he has shown in his efforts to return democracy to Venezuela, and I offer Canada’s continued support.”

Last month Guaidó was dethroned as leader of Venezuela’s national assembly. While the vote was contested, it represents a significant blow to Guaidó’s year-old claim to be Venezuela’s legitimate President. To shore up his position as opposition leader, Guaidó travelled to a number of international capitals, the World Economic Forum in Switzerland and was a guest of Donald Trump at the US president’s state of the union adress.

The Ottawa stop on Guaidó’s legitimacy seeking tour was the latest installment of the Trudeau government’s multipronged effort to overthrow Nicolás Maduro’s government. In a bid to elicit “regime change”, Ottawa has worked to isolate Caracas, imposed illegal sanctions, took that government to the International Criminal Court, financed an often-unsavoury opposition and decided a marginal opposition politician was the legitimate president.

On the same day Guaidó was fêted in Ottawa Scotiabank CEO Brian Porter penned “A call to action on Venezuela” in the National Post. The op-ed urged governments to “seize assets of corrupt regime officials” and to use the proceeds to give “support to the democratic movement in Venezuela.” Porter also applauded the Liberal’s “moral clarity by unambiguously condemning the Maduro regime’s abuses” and praised their “tremendous courage and leadership in the hemisphere and on the world stage.”

Scotiabank has long had frosty relations with the Bolivarian government. A few days after Hugo Chavez’s 2013 death the Globe & Mail Report on Business published a front-page story about Scotiabank’s interests in Venezuela, which were acquired just before his rise to power. It noted:

Bank of Nova Scotia [Scotiabank] is often lauded for its bold expansion into Latin America, having completed major acquisitions in Colombia and Peru. But when it comes to Venezuela, the bank has done little for the past 15 years – primarily because the government of President Hugo Chavez has been hostile to large-scale foreign investment.”

The perspective of the world’s 40th largest bank has shaped Ottawa’s position towards Caracas. At the other end of the continent, its interests have contributed to the Trudeau government’s support for embattled billionaire president Sebastián Piñera.

A number of stories have highlighted Scotiabank’s concerns about recent protests against inequality in Chile. The Financial Post noted, “Scotiabank’s strategic foray into Latin America hits a snag with Chile unrest” and “Riots, state of emergency in Chile force Scotiabank to postpone investor day.” Last week Scotiabank’s CEO blamed the protests that began in October on an “intelligence breakdown” with people outside Chile “that came in with an intention of creating havoc.” In a story titled “Why Brian Porter is doubling down on Scotiabank’s Latin American expansion”, he told the Financial Postthat Twitter accounts tied to Russia sparked the unrest!

Two weeks into massive demonstrations against Pinera’s government, Trudeau held a phone conversation with the Chilean president who had a 14% approval rating. According to Amnesty International, 19 people had already died and dozens more were seriously injured in protests that began against a hike in transit fares and morphed into a broader challenge to economic inequality. A couple thousand were also arrested by a government that declared martial law and sent the army onto the streets.

According to the published report of the conversation, Trudeau and Piñera discussed their joint campaign to remove Venezuela’s president and the Prime Minister criticized “election irregularities in Bolivia”, which were disingenuously used to justify ousting leftist indigenous president Evo Morales. A Canadian Press story noted, “a summary from the Prime Minister’s Office of Trudeau’s phone call with Piñera made no direct mention of the ongoing turmoil in Chile, a thriving country with which Canada has negotiated a free trade agreement.”

Despite numerous appeals from Canada’s Chilean community, the Trudeau government has stayed quiet concerning the fiercest repression in Chile since Augusto Pinochet’s dictatorship. A delegation of Québec parliamentarians, professors and union leaders that travelled to Chile in late January recently demanded Ottawa speak out against the abuses (four died in protest related violence last week). In a release about the delegation Mining Watch noted that over 50% of Chile’s large mining industry is Canadian owned. Canadian firms are also major players in the country’s infrastructure and Scotiabank is one of the country’s biggest banks. Chile is the top destination for Canadian investment in Latin America at over $20 billion.

As I detail in my forthcoming book House of Mirrors — Justin Trudeau’s Foreign Policy (Black Rose), the Liberals have said little about hundreds of killings by regimes in Haiti, Honduras, Bolivia, Chile and Colombia. On the other hand, they’ve aggressively condemned rights violations in Venezuela and Nicaragua. Many on the Left would say that is because those governments are aligned with Washington, which is true. But, it’s also because they are friendly to corporate Canada. If you want to understand Ottawa’s positions in Latin America look to what Canadian bankers have to say.

 

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I didn’t know him well, but in the 1970’s Hugh Keenleyside and I spent some time together.

That came about because in the late 1960’s fund raising walks for international causes had become all the rage! Oxfam, the English charity popularized them as Miles for millions events and I volunteered to help our London, Ontario crew put on ours.

University of Western Ontario historian Professor Ian Steele was Chair of the local Oxfam Committee and our walk chairman and was assisted by volunteers from several other international aid organizations, I was the new volunteer and happy to assist. I ended up succeeding Ian as walk chairman for a couple of years and then was elected to be a member of the Oxfam Canada Board of Directors and became Vice Chairman.

In the same era, an official Miles for Millions organization sprang up to encourage and support walks across Canada. Because of my work as a walk organizer and a business forms designer, I was asked to meet the Miles for Millions organizers in Ottawa to show them how to tighten up their accounting to reduce theft.

When I was elected to the Oxfam Board, Hugh Keenleyside was Chairman and I knew almost nothing about him. He was from British Columbia and was a dignified handsome man just over seventy. I sensed he was a man of interest but had no idea of his background. I worked with him for several years in the early seventies and it was not until recently that I learned just how significant his life had been.

He published his memoirs in two volumes in 1981 and 2 and I received them as a gift some decades ago but set them aside and have just now read them. The Memoirs are detailed notes from what had to be an extensive daily diary in which he recorded events from the important and historical to his thoughts about people and policies. The language at times is slightly dated, but his judgements are timeless. The first volume covers from his birth on July 7, 1898 when his parents lived at Danforth and Greenwood avenues in East Toronto until the beginning of World War Two.

In World War One, Hugh volunteered for the army and as he wrote was ‘…being prepared for war, to kill people much like ourselves.’ He joined the Tank corps but had never seen a tank. The war ended shortly after he arrived in Europe and I believe he returned home having never seen a tank. He went back to school, earned a Master’s degree at the newly opened University of British Columbia and began to teach history. A few years later in 1929, he joined the Canadian Department of External Affairs and was posted the same year to Japan to assist in opening a new Canadian embassy and he remained there until 1936. Shortly after his arrival, Japan attacked Manchuria, a part of China on the mainland. His memoir has pages of perceptive analysis of Japan as it became more and more intolerant in the period before it attacked Pearl Harbor.

In Japan Hugh met and wrote kindly about a surprising number of Canadian missionaries, no doubt a sign of the times, they were there primarily doing work like medicine.

In 1936 he returned to Canada and was assigned the job of planning for and then travelling with, King George and Queen Elizabeth (the parents of current Elizabeth ll) on their private train for a month long trip across Canada. The King had just become King on his brother’s abdication.

The second volume continues through the tragic events of the Second World War, the creation of the United Nations and up until the late seventies. Hugh had many senior roles in the Canadian government.  In 1941, he was appointed Assistant Under-Secretary of State for External Affairs. The Canadian Prime Minister is served by a Cabinet of about 35 Ministers who are selected from the elected members of Parliament to manage the various government departments; Finance, Health, Foreign Affairs, etc. Each of those departments is run day to day by an undersecretary or Deputy Minister, that’s the person who truly runs the department and does the work. Hugh had that job in External affairs and then later sought for and got the job as the Deputy Minister of Mines and Resources which he had from 1950 to 1958.

From 1944 to 1947, he was the Canadian Ambassador to Mexico. Next he served for 8 years as the director general of the United Nations’ Technical Assistance Administration. Then from 1959 to 1962, he was the chairman of the British Columbia Power Commission and co-chairman at the British Columbia Hydro and Power Authority from 1962 to 1969. There is a dam on the Columbia River named after him.

Hugh died in 1992 at the age of 94. I learned from his memoir that there were so many issues on which we had similar experiences or saw the world alike that it was no wonder we got along so well.

For example, the memoirs are not short of comments about economics and most are not kind. He wrote about the complete lack of useful ideas from economists to deal with the 1929 depression. Hugh knew it was foolish and cruel to waste a generation of human energy, hope and ideas to idleness and drudgery as society did. The only economist he wrote kindly of was John Kenneth Galbraith and on that choice I totally agree with him.

The YMCAs and Hugh’s involvement in them is mentioned often. It appears that the Y of the day was a respected service organization, more than a fitness club and certainly not the more evangelical version I see in Tennessee today. In this regard, he mentions Murray Ross a name I’m familiar with because my father knew him. When Dad was in his early twenties, he worked teaching business men’s fitness at the west end ’Y’ and Murray Ross was there. In 1959 when I enrolled in newly opened York University, it was Murray Ross who was president. And in the 1970’s I was one of the founding directors of the Whitby YM –YWCA. The town had a problem with teenagers with time on their hands and no place to go to blow off steam or to hang out, so a few of us got together and started a Y which continues to this day.

The few years Hugh and I worked together were immensely significant in my life but not important enough in his to be mentioned in his memoirs. Here is where we overlapped.

When I joined the board of Oxfam Canada it was being managed by a retired priest, Jack Shea who was the Executive Director. He was a sensitive man but from my recollection suffering from burnout, or it was possibly frustration from a lot of turmoil the well-meaning board had created. He was replaced by Jacques Jobin[1]* who led an ongoing transition to make Oxfam Canada an independent branch of the English parent while at the same time separating our Quebec colleagues into their own branch. Jacques and the various committees needed ongoing guidance from the Board which our quarterly Board Meetings couldn’t provide and as a result one of Hugh or I was needed regularly in the Ottawa office. Because he was in BC and I was in Ontario, it was more practical for that role to fall to me and Hugh and I had developed a close understanding so that it worked. We would often meet when he was passing through Toronto at the Guild Inn in Scarborough. That in itself was interesting.

During the forties the Inn was a happening place, a residence for artists with studios, stables, food gardens, chickens and cows; a country inn on 500 acres on the shore of Lake Ontario. By the time we met it was fading, but my guess is Hugh still preferred it because it must have held great memories. It was there he taught me etiquette at the diplomatic level; that you could drink clear soups by lifting the bowl in two hands, or the wisdom of wearing blue blazers and gray flannels because you could go anywhere from black tie to business casual and also, the tip to always travel with a small flask of your favorite alcohol in case you get in late or unexpected. He was a treat to work with and learn from.

We, Hugh, his wife Catherine together with my wife Mary and our eleven year old daughter Carrie and I went to a meeting of the International Oxfams in England in 1974. OXFAM began life as the Oxford Committee for famine relief in 1942 to send aid to people in Greece starving because of a naval blockade in the Second World War. By the seventies there were several national Oxfam’s; the parent in the UK, Canada, Belgium, the United States, and Quebec.

We met in a 13’th century manor house which the Quakers ran as a Retreat House – Charney Manor. Oxfam has had many volunteers with Quaker affiliation including Leslie Kirkley who was then executive director and chaired our meetings.  The meetings were run on what I assumed where Quaker principles;  there was an agenda but no votes. After a period of discussion, whenever the Chair felt it appropriate, he would comment. If he sensed agreement, he would say something like, “I think we agree we would like to …”. And if he heard no objection we would move on.  If he sensed conflict (as on more than one occasion) he interjected with “I do believe it’s time for tea …”.  Tea usually came with side conversations but if there was still not agreement when we reconvened, the item would be deferred. On occasion, it was deferred to the pub.

I would be remiss if I did not mention Hugh’s devotion to Katherine, his wife and partner of 58 years. She is mentioned throughout the two volumes. We saw how much he adored her as Hugh drove us on a sightseeing trip around Oxford. He was driving and teasing her and she asked him to stop. “Oh, I’m just pulling your leg my dear, because you have such lovely legs.”

I could not have wished for a better mentor.

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Note

[1] Jacques and I continue to communicate and he sends my comments to his son who is working in the Canadian Embassy in Moscow.

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No New Nuclear

February 9th, 2020 by Radiation Free Lakeland

Climate activists across the world are uniting to protect the planet from continuing fossil fuel use.  There is much talk of a green industrial revolution and a Green New Deal. This sounds good, but what does it mean? 

Kevin Frea co-chair of the Climate Emergency Network and deputy leader of Lancaster City Council has worked hard to sign local councils up declaring a climate emergency. He said: “This movement is being led by every political group and is involving local people in planning the actions needed to cut carbon.”

But there’s an important thing missing here. Last September members of Radiation Free Lakeland lobbied Lancaster City Council asking the council to include a No New Nuclear clause in their climate emergency planning.

Renewables

The council agreed that renewables are the way forward and it is brilliant that council members are actively involved in local community renewable schemes.

However, they thought that including a no new nuclear clause in their climate emergency planning was not necessary. Frea said: “Heysham, is number eight on the new nuclear plant list and it is not likely to go ahead”.

This new nuclear nonchalence rather misses the point. The continued push for new nuclear is decimating urgent steps towards renewables and energy efficiency.

The nuclear industry has been suppressing renewables for decades (remember Salters Duck?) and shows no sign of slowing down.

It is somewhat ironic that the biggest pour of carbon emitting concrete in the UK ever has taken place at Hinkley C near Bristol.  Yet Bristol City Council became the first UK council, on 13 November 2018, to declare a climate emergency.

Fossil fuels 

The nuclear and fossil fuel industry are mutually intertwined. The biggest gas plant being constructed in the UK right now is at Sellafield, home to 80 percent of the UK’s nuclear waste.

The new gas plant will not be completed until 2025.  As well as the gas plant there are diesel generators on the Sellafield site in case of emergency.

Sellafield’s Calder Hall reactor stopped producing its nominal electricity in 2003.  The main product of Calder Hall was plutonium for nuclear weapons.

Nuclear power is not green, is not new and is not low carbon. Mark Z. Jacobson, director of Stanford University’s Atmosphere and Energy Programme, said: “There is no such thing as a zero or near-zero-emission nuclear power plant”.

With construction taking anything up to ten to fifteen years longer than renewable projects, the emissions not saved over those years should be taken into account.

Emissions

Jacobson’s paper cites the Olkiluoto 3 reactor in Finland, the Hinkley Point nuclear plan in the UK and Vogtle 3 and 4 reactors in Georgia, among others, as examples of projects for which planning began in the past decade and whose entry into commercial operation is still far from complete.

Utility scale solar or wind schemes take from two to five years to begin commercial operations – nuclear effectively emits 64-102g of CO2 per kilowatt-hour of plant capacity just from grid emissions during the wait for projects to come online or be refurbished, compared to wind or solar farms.

Jacobson argues that even existing plants emit carbon dioxide due to the continuous mining and refining of uranium needed for the plant.

However, all plants also emit 4.4g-CO2e/kWh from the water vapour and heat they release. This contrasts with solar panels and wind turbines, which reduce heat or water vapour fluxes to the air by about 2.2 g-CO2e/kWh for a net difference from this factor alone of 6.6 g-CO2e/kWh.

Carbon footprint

In our presentation to Lancaster City Council we quoted from The Edinburgh Energy and Environment Consultancy, which has pointed out that: “All energy sources produce some carbon emissions during their life cycle. There will be CO2 emissions generated to make the steel to build wind turbines for example.

“It can be quite complicated to work out the life cycle emissions for nuclear power. Professor Benjamin Sovacool, now at Sussex University, has looked at 103 different studies and concluded that the mean value is about 66 grams of carbon dioxide for every kWh produced by nuclear power. This compares to about 9g for wind, 32g for solar and 443 for gas.

“This puts nuclear as the third highest carbon emitter after coal-fired plants and natural gas. If a large programme of reactors were built around the globe, life-cycle emissions would increase as the quality of uranium used decreased, making it necessary to use more energy to get the uranium out of the ground.”

Perhaps it is time for nuclear to be regarded almost as a fossil fuel by proxy in view of the vast amount of carbon dioxide released in the required processes before and immediately after nuclear fission takes place in the reactor core, and including later storage.

The full extent of the carbon footprint, nuclear fuel cycle and lifetime burden of carbon dioxide, toxic and radioactive emissions from the nuclear power industry and the negative impact on public health, the environment and the economy is not being adequately calculated and made available for public scrutiny and comparison with other energy sources.

PR offensive 

Further, the heating effect of discharges to the atmosphere and sea and also the use of water as a coolant for reactors and nuclear wastes are all contributing to ocean temperature rise and climate change.

We are increasingly concerned that the government is continuing with its nuclear new build programme virtually unopposed by mainstream  NGOs.

Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth have not included the need to divest from nuclear in their Climate Action Plans. While people are vehemently encouraged and fully supported to stare down the Climate Change wolf at the front door – the full pack of Nuclear wolves are already climbing in the back door.

So-called “Small Modular Reactors” are being pushed in a PR offensive by the nuclear industry and supported with £500M of taxpayers money.

The proposal is for SMRs to run for a few years (they still need massive concrete containment which aims to stop radioactive emissions),  and then be dumped in the as yet to be built Geological Disposal Facility.

Get involved

We can stop this. Please ask your council to include a No New Nuclear clause in their climate planning.

We will continue to lobby Lancaster City Council and other councils in the North West to sign up to a No New Nuclear clause.  If you would like help in pushing for a No New Nuclear clause please do contact Radiation Free Lakeland.

Climate Planning which leaves the door wide open to nuclear is meaningless.

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In the nineteenth century, Gilbert Sproat, a colonial official, wrote an account of his time among the Nuu Chah Nulth people on the west coast of Vancouver Island. He noted that the original inhabitants have “known every inch of the west coast for thousands of years.”1

Despite this acknowledgment of long-term habitation, the mindset of settler-colonialists toward the Original Peoples was condescending. This comes across clearly in a conversation between Sproat and a Tseshaht chief:

Chief: “We see your ships, and hear things that makes our hearts grow faint. They say that more King-George-men will soon be here, and take our land, our firewood, our fishing grounds; that we shall be placed on a little spot, and shall have to do everything according to the fancies of the King-George-men.”

Sproat: “… [I]t is true that more King-George-men (as they call the English) are coming: they will soon be here. But your land will be bought at a fair price.”

Chief: “We do not wish to sell our land nor our water; let your friends stay in their own country.”

Sproat: “My great chief, the high chief of the King-George-men, seeing that you do not work your land, orders that you shall sell it. The land is of no use to you…. The white man will give you work and buy your fish and oil.”

Chief: “Ah, but we don’t care do to as the white men wish.”

Sproat: “Whether or not, … The white men will come. All your people know that they are your superiors…”

Chief: “We do not want the white man. He will steal what we have. We wish to live as we are.”2

Sproat was fine by the outcome. He and other settler-colonialists

often talked about our rights as strangers to take possession of the district [of Alberni]. The right of boná fidepurchase we had, for I had bought the land from the Government, and had purchased it a second time from the natives. Nevertheless, as the Indians denied all knowledge of the colonial authorities at Victoria, and had sold the country to us, perhaps, under fear of loaded cannon pointed towards the village, it was evident that we had taken forceful possession of the district.3In a paean to white supremacism,4 Kleecoot, a large lake on Vancouver Island,5 was renamed in Sproat’s honor.

This colonial past points to widespread racism and an egregious moral mindset of white ancestors. This belongs to the distant past. Or does it?

Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose

A 7 February email from the Unist’ot’en Solidarity Brigade headlines with: “RCMP Have raided the Gidemt’en Checkpoint with Helicopters, Snipers, Police Dogs, and Tactical teams.”

The invasion was carried out by heavily armed RCMP despite the Wet’suwet’en having made it clear that they are unarmed and peaceful.

They have also made it clear through the unanimity of the hereditary chiefs that they do not want a Coastal GasLink pipeline going through their unceded territory.

The state and corporate media in Canada do not delve into how it is that Indigenous peoples who have never relinquished their territory or their rights to the territory have, nonetheless, had their territory claimed by settler-colonialists.

If Martians landed on Earth and populated Turtle Island with Martian colonies, and if the Terran resistance succumbed to superior Martian weaponry and epidemics caused by Martian pathogens, would the unsurrendered territories now belong to Martians? What if the Martians had a Doctrine of Discovery that recognized Terrans as uncivilized savages?6 Morally? One would think not. Legally? Depends on whether Martian law now trumps Terran law.

Why then does the Canadian state and corporate media refer to BC court decisions as requiring the Wet’suwet’en to allow Coastal GasLink to lay a pipeline across their unceded territory? Why is Wet’suwet’en law not primary?

Is this what Canada means by reconciliation? Is this what prime minister Justin Trudeau meant when he said,

It is time for a renewed, nation-to-nation relationship with First Nations peoples, one that understands that the constitutionally guaranteed rights of First Nations in Canada are not an inconvenience but rather a sacred obligation. [emphasis added]

Resistance

Unist’ot’en Solidarity Brigade has issued a call for support: “While the actions of the RCMP have been grotesque and unconscionable the power on the frontlines and in the streets has been beautiful! Keep up the pressure!”

People are holding all three entrances to the Port of Vancouver for the third day in a row

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Kim Petersen is a former co-editor of the Dissident Voice newsletter. He can be reached at: [email protected]. Twitter: @kimpetersen.

Notes

1. Gilbert Malcolm Sproat, The Nootka: Scenes and Studies of Savage Life (Victoria: Sono Nis Press, 1987; originally published in 1868): xv.

2. Gilbert Malcolm Sproat, 4-5.

3. Gilbert Malcolm Sproat, 7.

4. As evidenced by Sproat’s own words, “The mind of the savage then appears to rock to and fro out of mere weakness, and he tells lies and talks nonsense. I do not doubt, however, that in the course of time the mental powers of the Indian could be greatly improved by education. The chief difficulty is that the people would vanish from before the white man during the polishing process, as so many tribes of savages have done in other parts of the world.” (p 84-85)
“In one part of his character the savage resembles the lowest members of civilized community — such as outcasts in large cities. But another part of his character, inherited through the long succession of moral degradation, unchecked by any surrounding counteracting influences, is unlike anything that can be witnessed even in the most brutalized individual in civilized community.” (p 103)

5. George Vancouver, imperialist who immodestly named the island after himself, although he magnanimously included the name of a fellow navigator, the Peruvian-Spaniard Juan Francisco de la Bodega y Quadra.\

6. The United States Supreme Court has used the Doctrine of Discovery to support the superiority of white Europeans and their right to dispossess the Original Peoples and to slaughter them. In Mark Charles and Soong-Chan Rah, Unsettling Truths: The Ongoing Dehumanizing Legacy of the Doctrine of Discovery (InterVarsity Press, 2019): 104-116. Review.

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South African civil society will be holding a pre State of the Nation (SONA) Palestine solidarity picket in support of the South African government’s firm stance against Israeli Apartheid and in protest against US President Donald Trump’s recent Apartheid Israel plan. 

Last month US President Donald Trump, who once referred to African nations as “shit-hole countries”, announced a plan that he intends to impose on Palestine. A deal wherein indigenous Palestinians would be restricted to tiny Bantustans on a fraction of their historic homeland. The plan has rightly been rejected by Palestinians, progressive Jewish Israelis and countries across the world including South Africa.

The picket, which will start at 2pm on Wednesday 12 February outside the Parliament of South Africa in Cape Town, will be hosted and addressed by BDS South Africa, MJC, ANC, SACP, COSATU, NEHAWU, Embassy of Palestine, ANC YL, YCL, FOCUS, Al Quds Foundation, Media Review Network and various others.

On the eve of his State of the Nation Address (SONA), we are calling on President Cyril Ramaphosa to strengthen our government’s firm stance against Israel’s Apartheid regime. Ramaphosa has previously compared Apartheid South Africa to the situation that Palestinians are living under saying:

“As long as that struggle persists we will be on the side of the Palestinians…we will always be on the right side because we know what is happening there, its gross apartheid taking place there and we cannot but countenance a situation which is a duplicate or replica of what we went through, that we are not going to apologise for.”

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Rosa Luxemburg and Debt as an Imperialist Instrument

February 9th, 2020 by Eric Toussaint

In her book titled The Accumulation of Capital, [1] published in 1913, Rosa Luxemburg [2] devoted an entire chapter to international loans [3] in order to show how the great capitalist powers of the time used the credits granted by their bankers to the countries of the periphery to exercise economic, military and political domination on the latter. She sought to analyse the indebtedness of the newly independent states of Latin America, particularly, following the wars of independence in the 1820s, as well as the indebtedness of Egypt and Turkey during the 19th century, without forgetting China.

She wrote her book during the period of an international expansion of the capitalist system, both in terms of economic growth and geographical expansion. At that time, inside the Social Democracy, of which she was a member (the German Social Democratic Party and the Social Democratic Party of Poland and Lithuania – territories shared between the German and the Russian Empire), a significant number of socialist leaders and theorists supported colonial expansion. This was particularly the case in Germany, France, Great Britain and Belgium. All these powers had developed their colonial empires in Africa, mainly in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Rosa Luxemburg was totally opposed to this orientation and denounced the colonial plunder and destruction of the traditional (often communitarian) structures of pre-capitalist societies by the expanding capitalism.

Colonial possessions in 1914 (Source: http://etudescoloniales.canalblog.com/archives/2010/10/23/19409935.html)

She was opposed to these same socialist leaders who claimed that this expansionist phase of strong capitalist growth demonstrated that capitalism had overcome periodic crises, the last of which had occurred in the early 1890s. Rosa Luxemburg denounced this view which gave a false interpretation of the functioning of the capitalist system. Rosa was all the more vehemently opposed to it since this vision of an influential part of the social-democratic leadership served as a basis and justification for an increasingly collaborative attitude with the capitalist governments of the time [4].

While writing The Accumulation of Capital, Rosa Luxemburg aimed to construct a substantive argument to counter the pro-colonialist and class collaborationist orientations within social democracy that she had been fighting since the late 1890s. She also pursued another objective, which had its origins in 1906-1907, when she taught a course in Marxist economics at the SPD – the Social Democratic Party of Germany – cadre school, in Berlin. In fact, on that occasion, in order to prepare her lectures, she had gone back to read Capital and had deduced that there was a mistake in Marx’s substantiation of the extended reproduction scheme of capital [5]. In order to find a solution, particularly, to this problem, she made an enormous effort to analyse capitalism’s evolution during the 19th century. It should be pointed out that Marx, in Capital, develops his actual theoretical explanation assuming that the capitalist society has reached a stage in which only capitalist relations exist. He analyses capitalism in its pure state.

Rosa Luxemburg starts from the observation, made even by Marx in a series of writings like in the Grundrisse [6] (which she did not have the opportunity to read because these works by Marx had not yet been published during her times) or chapter 31 of the first volume of [7] which says that capitalism, in its expansion, destroys the traditional structures of non-capitalist societies that were conquered during the colonial phase.

Concerning the role of colonial plunder, it is worth quoting the Marx of Capital: “The discovery of gold and silver in America, the extirpation, enslavement and entombment in mines of the aboriginal population, the beginning of the conquest and looting of the East Indies, the turning of Africa into a warren for the commercial hunting of black-skins, signalised the rosy dawn of the era of capitalist production.”

It is also in this chapter that Karl Marx puts forward a formula indicating the dialectical link between the oppressed in the metropolises and those in the colonies: “In fact, the veiled slavery of the wage workers in Europe needed, for its pedestal, slavery pure and simple in the new world.” He ends the chapter by saying that “capital comes dripping from head to foot, from every pore, with blood and dirt.”

Marx describes the destruction of traditional textile producers in India during British colonial expansion. He also analyses the destruction of non-capitalist relations that existed in Europe before the massive expansion of wage-labour. But when he comes to highlight the laws of operation of the capitalist system, he assumes that capitalism totally dominates all relations of production and has therefore, already completely destroyed or/and absorbed the pre-capitalist sectors [8].

What is very enriching in Rosa’s approach is her enormous capacity for critical thinking and her willingness to confront theory with practice. She takes her inspiration from Karl Marx by expressing a fundamental agreement with him, but this does not prevent her from questioning, rightly or wrongly, some of his conclusions.

One point on which Rosa Luxemburg agrees completely with Karl Marx is the question of the unequal relations between the capitalist powers and other countries where pre-capitalist relations of production are still largely present. These countries are subject to the former, who exploit them in order to continue their expansion. Rosa Luxemburg, like Marx, shows in particular that the capitalist powers find an outlet for their manufactured products by imposing them on pre-capitalist societies, particularly through the signing of free trade treaties.

The Latin American countries that gained their independence, in the 1820s, against the Spanish empire

If we take the example of the Latin American countries that gained their independence in the 1820s, we see that they imported massively, manufactured goods, mainly from Great Britain, from whom they had taken out international loans to make these purchases. The governments of Latin American countries that borrowed from London bankers spent most of the money they borrowed, on the British market, buying all kinds of goods (military equipment ranging from weapons to uniforms, capital goods for mining and agriculture, and raw materials). Then, to repay their international loans, indebted states resorted to new loans that were used both to repay previous loans and to import even more manufactured goods from Britain or other creditor powers [9].

Rosa Luxemburg states in her 1913 book that loans “they are yet the surest ties by which the old capitalist states maintain their influence, exercise financial control and exert pressure on the customs, foreign and commercial policy of the young capitalist states.” [10]

To illustrate the penetration of manufactured goods from old European capitalist countries such as Britain into the newly independent countries of Latin America we can cite George Canning, one of the leading British politicians of the 1820s [11]. He wrote in 1824: “The deed is done, the nail is driven, Spanish America is free; and if we do not mismanage our affairs sadly, she is English”. Thirteen years later, the English consul in La Plata, Argentina, Woodbine Parish, could write of a gaucho (herdsman) on the Argentine pampas: “Take his whole equipment – examine everything about him – and what is there not of raw hide that is not British? If his wife has a gown, ten to one it is made at Manchester; the camp-kettle in which he cooks his food, the earthenware he eats from, the knife, his poncho, spurs, bit, all are imported England” [12].

To achieve this outcome, Great Britain did not need to resort to military conquest (although, when it considered it necessary, it did not hesitate to use force, as was the case in India, Egypt or China). It used two very effective economic weapons: international credit and forcing these newly independent states to discard protectionism.

Rosa Luxemburg insists on the role of international loans to colonial countries or “independent” states (such as the young Latin American republics or Egypt and China) to finance major infrastructure works (construction of railways, construction of the Suez Canal, …) or purchases of expensive military equipment in the interest of the big imperialist powers. This is how she wrote: “Public loans for railroad building and armaments accompany all stages of the accumulation of capital”.

She also asserts that “The contradictions inherent in the modern system of foreign loans are the concrete expression of those which characterise the imperialist phase.”

Rosa Luxemburg, as Marx had done a few decades earlier, insists on the role of financing the railways all around the world, especially in peripheral countries subject to the economic domination of the imperialist powers. She speaks of the frenzy of loans used to build the railways: “In spite of all periodical crises, however, European capital had acquired such a taste for this madness, that the London stock exchange was seized by a veritable epidemic of foreign loans in the middle of the seventies. Between 1870 and 1875, loans of this kind, amounting to £m. 260, were raised in London. The immediate consequence was a rapid increase in the overseas export of British merchandise.”

At the end of the 19th century, after the London bankers came those of Germany, France and Belgium.

German, French and Belgian imperialism appeared in conjunction with Great Britain, and began to lend massively to the countries on the periphery.

Rosa Luxemburg describes this evolution: “The following two decades made a difference only in so far as German, French and Belgian capital largely participated with British capital in foreign investments, while railway construction in Asia Minor had been financed entirely by British capital from the fifties to the late eighties. From then on, German capital took over and put into execution the tremendous project of the Anatolian railway. German capital investments in Turkey gave rise to an increased export of German goods to that country.

In 1896, German exports to Turkey amounted to 28 millions marks, in 1911 to 113 millions marks. To Asiatic Turkey, in particular, goods were exported in 1901 to the value of 12 millions and in 1911 to the value of 37 millions marks.”

Rosa Luxemburg shows that colonial and imperialist expansion allowed the old European capitalist countries such as Great Britain, France, Germany, Belgium (we can add Italy and the Netherlands), where there is a surplus of capital, to use this unused capital to lend it or invest it in the peripheral countries, which then constitute a profitable outlet. She writes: “There had been no demand for the surplus product within the country, so capital had lain idle without the possibility of accumulating. But abroad, where capitalist production has not yet developed, there has come about, voluntarily or by force, a new demand of the non-capitalist strata.” It’s only by destroying traditional local small-scale production, European manufactured goods took the place of pre-capitalist domestic production. Impoverished peasant communities or craftsmen in African, Asian or American countries were forced to start buying European products, for example British, Dutch or Belgian textiles. Those responsible for this situation are not only the European capitalists, but also the local ruling classes in peripheral countries who preferred to specialise in import-export trade rather than invest in local manufacturing industries (as I have shown with regard to Latin America in the Debt System in chapter 2 and chapter 3). They preferred to invest their accumulated capital to extract raw materials (e.g. mining) or to grow cotton and sell these products in their raw state in the world market, rather than to process them locally. They preferred to import manufactured goods from old Europe rather than invest in local processing industries and produce for the domestic market.

Attack on Peking Palace during Boxer rebellion.

Egypt, a victim of international borrowing

In the case of Egypt, which Marx had not studied in depth, Rosa points her finger on another phenomenon. In order to repay the foreign debt contracted with bankers in London and Paris, the indebted Egyptian government subjected the Egyptian peasantry to overexploitation, either by forcing it to work for free on the construction of the Suez Canal, or by levying taxes that severely degrade the living conditions of the peasants. Rosa Luxemburg thus showed how the overexploitation of the peasantry by methods that are not purely capitalist (i.e. not based on wage-labour relations) benefits the accumulation of capital.

Rosa Luxemburg describes the process summarised above. She explains that the Egyptian workforce “This was throughout the same forced peasant labour over which the state claimed to have an unrestricted right of disposal; and thousands had already been employed on the Kaliub dams and the Suez Canal and now the irrigation and plantation work to be done on the viceregal estates clamoured for this forced labour. The 20,000 serfs who had been put at the disposal of the Suez Canal Company were now required by the Khedive (the Egyptian sovereign, note by Éric Toussaint) himself; and this brought about the first clash with French capital. The company was adjudged a compensation of 67 millions marks by the arbitration of Napoleon III, a settlement to which the Khedive could all the more readily agree, since the very fellaheen whose labour power was the bone of contention were ultimately to be mulcted of this sum. The work of irrigation was immediately put in hand. Centrifugal machines, steam and traction engines were therefore ordered from England and France. In their hundreds, they were carried by steamers from England to Alexandria and then further. Steam ploughs were needed for cultivating the soil, especially since the rinderpest of 1864 had killed off all the cattle, England again being the chief supplier of these machines.”

Rosa Luxemburg describes the numerous purchases of equipment and the entire projects carried out by the Egyptian sovereign through British and French capitalists. She asks the question: “What had provided the capital for these enterprises?” and herself answers: “International loans.” All this equipment and projects were used to export raw materials, mainly agricultural (cotton, sugar cane, indigo, etc.) and to complete the construction of the Suez Canal in order to promote world trade dominated by Great Britain.

The construction of Suez Canal.

Rosa Luxemburg describes in detail the succession of international loans that gradually dragged Egypt and its people into an endless abyss. She shows that the conditions imposed by the bankers make it impossible to repay the capital because it was necessary to borrow constantly to pay the interest. Let us leave the pen to Rosa Luxemburg, who lists an impressive series of loans granted on abusive terms to the benefit of the lenders: “One year before his death in 1863, Said Pasha [13] had raised the first loan at a nominal value of 68 millions marks which came to 68 millions marks in cash after deduction of commissions, discounts, etc. He left to Ismail Pasha the legacy of this debt and the contract with the Suez Canal Company, which was to burden Egypt with a debt of 340 millions marks. Ismail Pasha [14] in turn raised his first loan in 1864 with a nominal value of 114 million marks at 7 per cent and a cash value of 97 millions at 8¼ per cent. What remained of it, after 67 millions had been paid to the Suez Canal Company as compensation (…) In 1865, the first so-called Daira-loan was floated by the Anglo-Egyptian Bank, on the security of the Khedive’s private estates. The nominal value of this loan was 678 million marks at 9 per cent, and its real value 50 million marks at 12 per cent. In 1866, Fruehling & Goschen floated a new loan at a nominal value of 60 million marks and a cash value of 50 million marks. The Ottoman Bank floated another in 1867 of nominally 40 million marks, really 34 million marks. The floating debt at that time amounted to 600 millions. The Banking House Oppenheim & Neffen floated a great loan in 1868 to consolidate part of this debt. Its nominal value was 238 million at 7 per cent, though Ismail could actually lay hands only on 142 millions at 13½ percent. This money made it possible, however, to pay for the pompous celebrations on the opening of the Suez Canal, in presence of the leading figures in the Courts of Europe, in finance and in the demi-monde, for a madly lavish display, and further, to grease the palm of the Turkish Overlord, the Sultan, with a new baksheesh of 20 million marks. The sugar gamble necessitated another loan in 1870. Floated by the firm of Bischoffsheim & Goldschmidt, it had a nominal value of 142 million at 7 per cent, and its cash value was 100 million at 13 per cent. In 1872/3 Oppenheim’s floated two further loans, a modest one amounting to 80 million at 14 per cent and a large one of 640 million at 8 per cent which reduced the floating debt by one half, but which actually came only to 220 million in cash, since the European banking houses paid it in part by bills of exchange they had discounted.

In 1874, a further attempt was made to raise a national loan of 1 000 millions marks at an annual charge of 9 per cent., but it yielded no more than 68 million. Egyptian securities were quoted at 54 per cent of their face value. Within the thirteen years after Said Pasha’s death, Egypt’s total public debt had grown from £m. 3.293 to £m. 94.110, and collapse was imminent.”

Rosa Luxemburg rightly claims that this seemingly absurd series of borrowings has paid off for the bankers: “These operations of capital, at first sight, seem to reach the height of madness. One loan followed hard on the other, the interest on old loans was defrayed by new loans, and capital borrowed from the British and French paid for the large orders placed with British and French industrial capital.

While the whole of Europe sighed and shrugged its shoulders at Ismail’s crazy economy, European capital was in fact doing business in Egypt on a unique and fantastic scale – an incredible modern version of the biblical legend about the fat kine which remains unparalleled in capitalist history.

In the first place, there was an element of usury in every loan, anything between one-fifth and one-third of the money ostensibly lent sticking to the fingers of the European bankers.”

Then she shows that it was the Egyptian people, especially the mass of poor peasants, the fellahs, who repaid the debt: “Ultimately, the exorbitant interest had to be paid somehow, but how – where were the means to come from? Egypt herself was to supply them; their source was the Egyptian fellah–peasant economy providing in the final analysis all the most important elements for large-scale capitalist enterprise. He provided the land since the so-called private estates of the Khedive were quickly growing to vast dimensions by robbery and blackmail of innumerable villages; and these estates were the foundations of the irrigation projects and the speculation in cotton and sugar cane. As forced labour, the fellah also provided the labour power and, what is more, he was exploited without payment and even had to provide his own means of subsistence while he was at work. The marvels of technique which European engineers and European machines performed in the sphere of Egyptian irrigation, transport, agriculture and industry were due to this peasant economy with its fellaheen serfs. On the Kaliub Nile dams and on the Suez Canal, in the cotton plantations and in the sugar plants, untold masses of peasants were put to work; they were switched over from one job to the next as the need arose, and they were exploited to the limit of endurance and beyond. Although it became evident at every step that there were technical limits to the employment of forced labour for the purposes of modern capital, yet this was amply compensated by capital’s unrestricted power of command over the pool of labour power, how long and under what conditions men were to work, live and be exploited.

But not alone that it supplied land and labour power, peasant economy also provided the money. Under the influence of capitalist economy, the screws were put on the fellaheen by taxation. The tax on peasant holdings was persistently increased. In the late sixties, it amounted to 55 marks per hectare, but not a farthing was levied on the enormous private estates of the royal family. In addition, ever more special rates were devised. Contributions of 2.50 marks per hectare had to be paid for the maintenance of the irrigation system which almost exclusively benefited the royal estates, and the fellah had to pay 1.35 mark for every date tree felled, 75 pfennigs for every clay hovel in which he lived. In addition, every male over 10 years of age was liable to a head tax of 6.50 marks.(…)

The greater the debt to European capital became, the more had to be extorted from the peasants. In 1869 all taxes were put up by 10 per cent and the taxes for the coming year collected in advance. In 1870, a supplementary land tax of 8 marks per hectare was levied. All over Upper Egypt people were leaving the villages, demolished their dwellings and no longer tilled their land – only to avoid payment of taxes. In 1876, the tax on date palms was increased by 50 pfennigs. Whole villages went out to fell their date palms and had to be prevented by rifle volleys. North of Siut, 10,000 fellaheen are said to have starved in 1879 because they could no longer raise the irrigation tax for their fields and had killed their cattle to avoid paying tax on it.”

Rosa Luxemburg shows how British capital grabbed at bargain prices what still belonged to the State, and once this was achieved, how it gets the British government to find a pretext to militarily invade Egypt and establish its domination, which we remember, lasted until 1952.

She explains, “an opportune pretext for the final blow was provided by a mutiny in the Egyptian army, starved under European financial control while European officials were drawing excellent salaries, and by a revolt engineered among the Alexandrian masses who had been bled white. The British military occupied Egypt in 1882, as a result of twenty years’ operations of Big Business, never to leave again. This was the ultimate and final step in the process of liquidating peasant economy in Egypt by and for European capital.

It should now be clear that the transactions between European loan capital and European industrial capital are based upon relations which are extremely rational and ‘sound’ for the accumulation of capital, although they appear absurd to the casual observer because this loan capital pays for the orders from Egypt and the interest on one loan is paid out of a new loan. Stripped of all obscuring connecting links, these relations consist in the simple fact that European capital has largely swallowed up the Egyptian peasant economy. Enormous tracts of land, labour, and labour products without number, accruing to the state as taxes, have ultimately been converted into European capital and have been accumulated.”

As I wrote in The Debt System about Egypt : “Egypt’s 15 year-long pursuit for a partially autonomous development came to fruition when progressive young soldiers led by Gamel Abdel Nasser overthrew the Egyptian monarchy in 1952 and the Suez Canal was nationalized on July 26, 1956.”

Conclusion:

Rosa Luxemburg’s analysis about the role of international loan as a mechanism for exploiting peoples and as an instrument for subjugating peripheral countries to the interests of the dominant capitalist powers is highly topical in the 21st century. Fundamentally, the mechanisms that Rosa Luxemburg has laid bare continue to operate today in forms that must be rigorously analysed and fought against.

In the second part, I will address Rosa Luxemburg’s analysis of the debt and the submission of the Ottoman Empire to the interests of European big business. I will also point out some errors and weaknesses in Rosa Luxemburg’s analysis with regard to the debt and the international financial crises of the time that she analyses.

I would like to point out that it was an invitation to participate in September 2019 in a conference in Moscow on Rosa Luxemburg that gave me the opportunity to look again at her work and to prepare the material that we find in this article. The conference was organised by young university professors completely independent of the government and was supported by the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation.

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Translated by Sushovan Dhar

This article was originally published on CADTM.

Eric Toussaint is a historian and political scientist who completed his Ph.D. at the universities of Paris VIII and Liège, is the spokesperson of the CADTM International, and sits on the Scientific Council of ATTAC France. He is the author of Bankocracy (2015); The Life and Crimes of an Exemplary Man (2014); Glance in the Rear View Mirror. Neoliberal Ideology From its Origins to the Present, Haymarket books, Chicago, 2012 (see here), etc.

Notes

[2] Rosa Luxemburg, born on 5 March 1871 at Zamość in the Russian Empire (now Poland), was murdered during the German Revolution by soldiers on 15 January 1919 in Berlin on the orders of members of the Social Democratic government presided over by Friedrich Ebert. Rosa Luxemburg was a socialist, communist, internationalist activist and Marxist theorist. It is recommended to read the biography of Rosa Luxemburg written by one of her fellow fighters, Paul Frölich, first published in 1939 and republished by L’Harmattan in French in 1999, ISBN: 2-7384-0755-2 – May 1999 – 384 pages.

[3] The chapter “International Loans” can be downloaded free from [https://www.marxists.org/archive/luxemburg/1913/accumulation-capital/ch30.htm].

[4] Rosa Luxemburg, like others, fought against what was called “ministerialism”, which had been the subject of major debates within the Second International, notably at the Congress of 1907. A resolution condemned ministerialism following the experience of the participation of Alexandre Millerand, the French socialist leader, in the Waldeck-Rousseau government from 1899 to 1902. Judged too moderate, he was excluded from the French Socialist Party in 1904. Despite the resolution of the 1907 Congress of the Second International, many social democratic leaders who had voted for it hypocritically did not hesitate to enter governments during the First World War.

[5] For a presentation of the problem of capital reproduction patterns and the contributions of Rosa Luxemburg, Nicolas Bukharin, Rudolf Hilferding and others, read the chapter 1 (The Laws of Motion and the History of Capital) of Late Capitalism by Ernest Mandel, first published by New Left Books, London in 1975. The Verso edition was published in 1978 followed by a reprint in 1980 and the second edition in 1999. The book is also available online https://www.marxists.org/archive/mandel/1972/latecap/index.html

[6] Grundrisse, Foundations of the Critique of Political Economy (Rough Draft), first published in English by Penguin Books in association with New Left Review, 1973.

[7] Karl Marx. 1887 Capital, Volume I, Swan Sonnenschein, Lowrey, London. See in particular the eighth section titled: Primitive Accumulation (chapters XXVI to XXXII).

[8] Rosa Luxemburg writes : “Marx’s diagram of enlarged reproduction cannot explain the actual and historical process of accumulation. And why? Because of the very premises of the diagram. The diagram sets out to describe the accumulative process on the assumption that the capitalists and workers are the sole agents of capitalist consumption. We have seen that Marx consistently and deliberately assumes the universal and exclusive domination of the capitalist mode of production as a theoretical premise of his analysis in all three volumes of Capital. Under these conditions, there can admittedly be no other classes of society than capitalists and workers; as the diagram has it, all ‘third persons’ of capitalist society – civil servants, the liberal professions, the clergy, etc. – must, as consumers, be counted in with these two classes (…) This axiom, however, is a theoretical contrivance – real life has never known a self-sufficient capitalist society under the exclusive domination of the capitalist mode of production.” (The Accumulation of Capital, the beginning of chapter 26). Marx would have certainly agreed with Rosa Luxemburg’s affirmation: “real life has never known a self-sufficient capitalist society under the exclusive domination of the capitalist mode of production.”

[9] I analysed this in The Debt System: A History of Sovereign Debts and their Repudiation, Haymarket Books, Chicago, Chapters 1 & 2.

[10] Rosa Luxemburg, Chapter 30 entitled “The International Loans” of The Accumulation of Capital. All quotations from Rosa Luxemburg in this article are, unless otherwise indicated, from chapter 30, can be downloaded from https://www.marxists.org/archive/luxemburg/1913/accumulation-capital/ch30.htm

[11] Rosa Luxemburg, Chapter 30 entitled “The International Loans” of The Accumulation of Capital. All quotations from Rosa Luxemburg in this article are, unless otherwise indicated, from chapter 30, can be downloaded from https://www.marxists.org/archive/luxemburg/1913/accumulation-capital/ch30.htm

[12] Sir Woodbine Parish, Buenos Ayres and the Provinces of the Rio de la Plata, Their Present State, Trade and Debt, London, 1839, pp 338.

[13] Said Pasha (1822-1863), became the Egyptian sovereign (khedive) from 1854-1863.

[14] Ismail Pasha (1830-1895) became the Egyptian sovereign from 18 January1863 – 8 August 1879.

All images in this article are from CADTM

Australia has produced extraordinary journalists across three generations: Wilfred Burchett (deceased in 1983), John Pilger (80 years old but still active) and Julian Assange (48 years old, currently in London’s Belmarsh prison).

Each of these journalists made unique contributions to our understanding of the world. Although Australia is part of the western world, each of these journalists exposed and criticized Western foreign policy.

Wilfred Burchett

Wilfred Burchett lived from 1911 to 1983. He was a farm boy and his experience in the depression shaped his dislike of oligarchs and preference for the poor.  He went to Europe trying to volunteer for Republicans in the Spanish Civil War but that did not work out.  Instead, he assisted Jews escaping Nazi Germany.

Image result for Wilfred Burchett

Burchett became a journalist by accident. Having seen the reality in Germany, he started writing many letters to newspaper editors. One of the editors took note of his fluid writing style and intensity. They contacted him to ask if he would like to report for them. Thus began a forty year writing career.

He covered WW2, first stationed with British troops in India then Burma. Then he covered the Pacific campaign stationed with U.S. troops.  He was the first international journalist to report on Hiroshima after the atomic bomb. He evaded US military restrictions to go to Hiroshima and see reality for himself. In his story “The Atomic Plague”, published in the London Daily Express, Burchett said,  “I write this as a warning to the world” and “Doctors fall as they work”.   Immediately the US launched a campaign to smear his reputation and deny the validity of his story. The US military was intent on preventing people from knowing the long term effects of nuclear radiation.

Burchett’s report from Hiroshima was broadcast world wide and called the “scoop of the century”. It exemplified his career based on first hand observation and experience.

Over his 40 year career he reported the other side of the story from the Soviet Union, China, Korea and Vietnam. He wrote thousands of articles and over 35 books.  On China he wrote “China’s Feet Unbound” in 1952. Two decades later he wrote (with Rewi Alley) “China: The Quality of Life”.

Burchett wrote “Vietnam: The Inside Story of a Guerrilla War” (1965) “My War with the CIA: The Memoirs of Prince Norodom Sihanouk”(1974), “Grasshoppers and Elephants: Why Vietnam Fell” (1977) and then “Catapult to Freedom: The Survival of the Vietnamese People” (1978).

Burchett’s life, experiences and observations are brilliantly recorded in his autobiography “At the Barricades: Forty Years on the Cutting Edge of History” (1980). They reveal the hard scrabble youth and early years, the leftist sympathies, the decades of journalistic work based on first hand observations.

Burchett was vilified by establishment political leaders in Australia. His Australian passport was taken, the government refused to issue him a new one and he was barred from entering Australia. Even his children were denied their Australian citizenship. Finally, after 17 years, Wilfred Burchett’s citizenship and passport were restored when Gough Whitlam became Prime Minister in 1972.

With his unassuming and  affable manner, Wilfred Burchett became friends with leaders such as Ho Chi Minh, Norodom Sihanouk,  and Chou en Lai.   Bertrand Russell said, “One man, Wilfred Burchett, alerted Western public opinion to the nature of this war and the struggle of the Vietnamese people.”

This interview gives a glimpse into the character and personality of Wilfred Burchett.

John Pilger

John Pilger is another extraordinary Australian journalist.  After starting journalism in the early 60’s,  he became a war correspondent covering Vietnam, Cambodia, Bangladesh and Biafra. He worked 25 years at London’s Daily Mirror and then had a regular fortnightly column for 23 years at the New Statesman.

His first documentary, “The Quiet Mutiny”, depicted US soldiers in Vietnam resisting their officers and the war. In 1974, when Palestine was often unmentionable, he produced “Palestine is Still the Issue”. Nineteen years later, he wrote the second part and described how  Palestine is still the issue.

Image result for john pilger

John Pilger has written/edited over ten books and made over 50 films. He told the story of atrocities in Pol Pot’s Cambodia with “Year Zero“. He exposed Indonesia’s strangle hold on East Timor in “Death of a Nation: The Timor Conspiracy”.  In a four year investigation, he showed how working class victims of the drug thalidomide had been excluded from a settlement with the drug company.

John Pilger exposed uncomfortable truths about his home country and its treatment of aboriginal people. He did this through films including “The Secret Country: First Australians Fight Back” (1985), “Welcome to Australia” (1999), and “Utopia: An Epic Story of Struggle and Resistance” (2013).  He gives more history and detail in the book “A Secret Country” (1992).

In 2002 Pilger produced and movie and book titled “The New Rulers of the World” revealing the grotesque inequality in this “globalized” world where a few individuals and corporations have more power and wealth than entire countries.

In 2016 Pilger came out with the urgent and prescient video “The Coming War with China”.

More recently he produced “The Dirty War on the NHS” which  documents the stealth campaign to privatize the UK’s National Health System. Many of John Pilger’s films can be seen at his website johnpilger.com.

In the 1960’s and 70’s, Pilger’s brave and bold journalism received many awards and he was twice recognized as Journalist of the Year. But in recent years, there has been less acceptance as media has become more homogenized and controlled.  In 2018 Pilger said“My written journalism is no longer welcome – probably it’s last home was The Guardian, which three years ago got rid of people like me and others in pretty much a purge …”  

Harold Pinter, winner of the Nobel Prize for Literature, says“John Pilger unearths, with steely attention, the facts, the filthy truth. and tells it like it is.

Julian Assange

The third extraordinary Australian journalist is Julian Assange. He was born on 3 July 1971.  He became a skilled computer programmer and hacker as a teenager. Later he later studied mathematics and physics at Melbourne University. According to one of his math teachers he was an exceptional student but he clearly had other tasks and priorities.

Assange has edited or co-authored at least four books. For three years he worked with Australian journalist and co-author Suelette Dreyfus to write “Underground: Tales of Hacking, Madness and Obsession in the Electronic Frontier”.  First published in 1997, the Sydney Morning Herald called it “astonishing”. Rolling Stone described it as “An entirely original focus on the bizarre lives and crimes of an extraordinary group of teenage hackers.” 

In 2012, Assange produced the TV series “The World Tomorrow”. Over 12 segments, he interviews Ecuador President Rafael Correa, the current President of Pakistan Imran Khan, the leader of Hezbollah Hasan Nasrallah, leaders in the Occupy movement, Noam Chomsky, Tariq Ali and many more.

In 2013, Assange and WikiLeaks produced the movie Mediastan. It shows WikiLeaks global travels to meet publishers of the secret documents.  In 2014 OR Books published “When WikiLeaks met Google”. It consists of a discussion between Julian Assange and Google founder Eric Schmidt plus two companions. Assange writes a 51 page introduction which puts the discussion in context: how Google and other internet giants have become part of  US foreign policy establishment.

In 2015 Assange edited “The WikiLeaks files: the world according to the US Empire” and in 2016 the book “Cypherpunks: Freedom and the Future of the Internet” was published.Assange and  three other computer experts discuss the future of the internet and whether computers will emancipate or enslave us. One reviewer says, “These guys are really getting at the heart of some very big issues that practically no one (outside of Cypherpunk circles) is thinking about.”

But what makes Assange extraordinary is his work as editor in chief and publisher of WikiLeaks.  Following are a few examples of information they have conveyed to the public:

  • Corruption by family and associates of  Kenyan leader Daniel Arap Moi.
  • Corruption at Kaupthing Bank in the Iceland financial crisis
  • Dumping of toxic chemicals in Ivory Coast.
  • Killing of  Reuters journalists and over 10 Iraqi civilians by US Apache attack helicopter in “Collateral Murder”video.
  • 92,000 documents on the war in Afghanistan (and civilian casualties previously hidden)
  • 400,000 documents on the war in Iraq (including reports showing the US military ignoring torture by their Iraqi allies)
  • corruption in Tunisia (helping spark the Arab Spring)
  • NSA spying on German leader Merkel, Brazilian leader Roussef, French presidents (Sarkozy, Hollande, Chirac) and more.
  • secret agreements in the proposed Trans Pacific Partnership
  • emails and files from the US Democratic National Committee
  • CIA spying and other tools  (“Vault 7”).

Julian Assange has received much recognition: Sam Adams Award, Time’s Person of the Year, Le Monde Person of the Year,  Martha Gellhorn Prize for Journalism, Sydney Peace Foundation Gold Medal, Serena Shim Award and others.

But Assange has incurred the wrath and enmity of the US government. The “Collateral Damage” video and war logs exposed the brutal reality of US aggression and occupation.  Kofi Annan, former Secretary General of the United Nations, said the US invasion of Iraq violated international law. But there has been no accountability.

In response to WikiLeaks’ revelations, the United States has ignored the crimes and gone after the messenger who revealed the crimes. Thus Julian Assange was confined to the Ecuador Embassy for 7 years and is now in Belmarsh maximum security prison.  The US wants him extradited to the US where he has been charged with 18 counts of  “Illegally Obtaining, Receiving and Disclosing Classified Information”. The extradition hearing is scheduled to begin on 24 February 2020.

Across Three Generations

Australia should be proud of these exceptional native sons. Each one has made huge contributions to educating the public about crucial events.

Wilfred Burchett reported from the “other side” when the West was waging war on Korea, Vietnam, Laos, and China. He was demonized and even called “Public Enemy Number One” during the Cold War.  But those who read his reports and many books found an accurate and objective writer. His many books stand the test of time.

From the 60’s to today, John Pilger has told stories that were never or rarely told.  He has exposed facts and drawn conclusions which shame or should shame powerful forces, whether in the U.K., U.S.A. or Australia. He has documented the real heroes who are otherwise ignored.

Julian Assange is from the new generation. He has reported and published secret information about military-political power on “this side”. He has revealed truths which powerful forces do not want the public to know, even when it is being done in their name.

Now Assange is in prison and in danger of being extradited to the United States. If this is allowed to happen, it will mark a crushing setback and perhaps the death of independent investigative journalism.

John Pilger is a major supporter of Julian Assange. So is the United Nations Special Rapporteur on Torture, Nils Melzer. In a blockbuster interview he says “I have never seen a comparable case….The Swedish authorities … intentionally left him in limbo. Just imagine being accused of rape for nine-and-a-half years by an entire state apparatus and the media without ever being given the chance to defend yourself because no charges have ever been filed.” He goes to describe reading the original Swedish documents, saying “I could hardly believe my eyes…. a rape had never taken place at all…. the woman’s testimony was later changed by the Stockholm police… I have all the documents in my possession, the emails, the text messages.” 

Melzer describes the refusal of governments to comply with his requests. He sums up what is happening and the significance. “A show trial is to be used to make an example of Julian Assange….. Four democratic countries joined forces – the U.S., Ecuador, Sweden, and the U.K. – to leverage their power to portray one man as a monster so that he could be later burned at the stake without any outcry. The case is a huge scandal and represents the failure of Western rule of law. If Julian Assange is convicted, it will be a death sentence for freedom of the press.”

The three extraordinary Australian journalists were all rebels and all international. They all depended on  freedom of the press which is now at stake.

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Rick Sterling is an independent investigative journalist. He lives in the San Francisco Bay Area and can be contacted at [email protected]

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Mexico’s President AMLO Shows How It’s Done

February 9th, 2020 by Ellen Brown

While U.S. advocates and local politicians struggle to get their first public banks chartered, Mexico’s new president has begun construction on 2,700 branches of a government-owned bank to be completed in 2021, when it will be the largest bank in the country. At a press conference on Jan. 6, he said the neoliberal model had failed; private banks were not serving the poor and people outside the cities, so the government had to step in.

Andrés Manuel López Obrador (known as AMLO) has been compared to the United Kingdom’s left-wing opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn, with one notable difference: AMLO is now in power. He and his left-​wing coalition won by a landslide in Mexico’s 2018 general election, overturning the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) that had ruled the country for much of the past century. Called Mexico’s “first full-fledged left-wing experiment,” AMLO’s election marks a dramatic change in the political direction of the country. AMLO wrote in his 2018 book “A New Hope for Mexico,” “In Mexico the governing class constitutes a gang of plunderers…. Mexico will not grow strong if our public institutions remain at the service of the wealthy elites.”

The new president has held to his campaign promises. In 2019, his first year in office, he did what Donald Trump pledged to do — “drain the swamp” — purging the government of technocrats and institutions he considered corrupt, profligate or impeding the transformation of Mexico after 36 years of failed market-focused neoliberal policies. Other accomplishments have included substantially increasing the minimum wage while cutting top government salaries and oversize pensions; making small loans and grants directly to farmers; guaranteeing crop prices for key agricultural crops; launching programs to benefit youth, the disabled and the elderly; and initiating a $44 billion infrastructure plan. López Obrador’s goal, he says, is to construct a “new paradigm” in economic policy that improves human welfare, not just increases gross domestic product.

The End of the Neoliberal Era

To deliver on that promise, in July 2019 AMLO converted the publicly owned federal savings bank Bansefi into a “Bank of the Poor” (Banco del Bienestar or “Welfare Bank”). He said on Jan. 6 that the neoliberal era had eliminated all the state-owned banks but one, which he had gotten approval to expand with 2,700 new branches. Added to the existing 538 branches of the former Bansefi, that will bring the total in two years to 3,238 branches, far outstripping any other bank in the country. (Banco Azteca, currently the largest by number of branches, has 1,860.) Digital banking will also be developed. Speaking to a local group in December, AMLO said his goal was for the Bank of the Poor to reach 13,000 branches, more than all the private banks in the country combined.

At a news conference on Jan. 8, he explained why this new bank was needed:

There are more than 1,000 municipalities that don’t have a bank branch. We’re dispersing [welfare] resources but we don’t have a way to do it.  . . .  People have to go to branches that are two, three hours away. If we don’t bring these services close to the people, we’re not going to bring development to the people. …

They’re already building. I’ll invite you within two months, three at the most, to the inauguration of the first branches because they’re already working, they’re getting the land … because we have to do it quickly.

The president said the 10 billion pesos ($530.4 million) needed to build the new branches would come from government savings; and that 5 million had already been transferred to the Banco del Bienestar, which would pass the funds to the Secretariat of Defense, whose engineers were responsible for construction. The military will also be used to transport physical funds to the branches for welfare payments. AMLO added, “They are helping me. They are propping me up. The military has behaved very well and they don’t back down at all. They always tell me ‘yes you can, yes we do, go.’ ”

To concerns that the government-owned bank would draw deposits away from commercial banks and might compete in other ways, such as making interest-free loans to small businesses, AMLO countered:

There’s no reason to be complaining about us building these branches. … [I]f private banks want to build branches, they have every right to go to the towns and build their branches, but as they won’t because they believe that it’s not [good] business, we have to do it . . . it’s our social responsibility, the state can’t shirk its social responsibility.

Issues with the Central Bank

While the legislature has approved the new bank, Mexico’s central bank can still block it if bank regulations are breached. Ricardo Delfín, who works at the international accounting firm KPMG, told the newspaper La Razón that if the money to fund the bank comes from a loan from the federal government rather than from capital, it will adversely affect the bank’s “Capitalization Ratio.” But AMLO contends that the bank will be self-sufficient. Funding for construction will come from federal savings from other programs, and the bank’s operating expenses will be covered by small commissions paid on each transaction by customers, most of whom are welfare recipients. Branches will be built on land owned by the government or donated, and software companies have offered to advise for free.

About the central bank, he said:

We’re going to speak with those from the Bank of México respecting the autonomy of the Bank of México. We have to educate them because for them this is an anachronism, even sacrilege, because they have other ideas. But we’ve arrived here [in government] after telling the people that the neoliberal economic policy was going to change. . . .

There shouldn’t be obstacles. How is the Bank of México going to stop us from having a [bank] branch that disperses resources in favor of the people? What damage does that do? Whom does it harm?

AMLO has repeatedly promised not to interfere in the business of the central bank, which has been autonomous for the past quarter of a century. But he has also said that he would like its mandate expanded from just preserving the value of the peso by fighting inflation to include fostering growth. The concern, according to The Financial Times, is that he might use the central bank to fund government programs, following in the footsteps of Argentina’s former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, “whose heterodox policies led to high inflation and, many economists believe, the country’s current crisis.”

Mark Weisbrot counters in The New York Times that Argentina’s problems were caused, not by printing money to fund domestic development, but by a massive foreign debt. Hyperinflation actually happened under Fernández de Kirchner’s successor, President Mauricio Macri, who replaced her in 2015. The public debt grew from 53% to more than 86% of GDP, inflation soared from 18% to 54%, short-term interest rates shot up to 75%, and poverty increased from 27% to 40%.

In an upset election in August 2019, the outraged Argentinian public re-elected Fernández de Kirchner as vice president and her former head of the cabinet of ministers as president, restoring the 12-year Kirchner legacy begun by her husband, Nestor Kirchner, in 2003 and considered by Weisbrot to be among the most successful presidencies in the Western Hemisphere.

More appropriate than Argentina as a model for what can be achieved by a government working in partnership with its central bank is that of Japan, where Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has funded his stimulus programs by selling government bonds directly to the Bank of Japan. The BOJ now holds nearly 50% of the government’s debt, yet consumer price inflation remains low — so low that the BOJ cannot get the figure up even to its 2% target.

Other Funding Options

AMLO is unlikely to go that route, because he has vowed not to interfere with the central bank; but analysts say he needs to introduce some sort of economic stimulus, because Mexico’s GDP has slipped in the last year. The Mexican president has criticized GDP as the ultimate standard, advocating instead for a model of development that incorporates wealth distribution and access to education, health, housing and culture into its measurements.

But as Kurt Hackbarth warned in Jacobin in December, “To fully unfurl [his] program without simply ransacking other line items to pay for it will require doing something AMLO has up to now categorically ruled out: raising taxes on the rich and large corporations which, not surprisingly, make out like utter bandits in Mexico’s rigged financial system.”

AMLO has continually vowed, however, not to raise taxes on the rich. Instead he has enlisted Mexico’s business magnates as investors in public-private partnerships, allowing him to avoid the “tequila trap” that brought down Argentina and Mexico itself in earlier years — getting locked into debt to foreign investors and the International Monetary Fund. Mexico’s business leaders seem happy to invest in the country, despite some slippage in GDP.

As noted by Carlos Slim, Mexico’s wealthiest man, “Debt didn’t go up, there is no fiscal deficit and inflation came down.” In November 2019, the Economy Secretariat reported that foreign direct investment showed a 7.8% increase in the first nine months of that year compared with the same period in 2018, reaching its second highest level ever; and at the end of 2019 the peso was up around 4%. Stocks also rose 4.5%, and inflation dropped from 4.8% to 3%.

Partnering with local businessleaders is politically expedient, but public/private partnerships can be expensive; and as U.K. Professor Richard Werner points out, tapping up private investors merely recirculates existing money in the economy. Better would be to borrow directly from banks, which create new bank money when they lend, as the Bank of England has confirmed. This new money then circulates in the economy, stimulating productivity.

Today, the best model for that approach is China, which funds infrastructure by borrowing from its own state-owned banks. Like all banks, they create loans as bank credit on their books, which is then repaid with the proceeds of the projects created with the loans. There is no need to tap up the central bank or rich investors or the tax base. Government banks can create money on their books just as central banks and private banks do.

For Mexico, however, using its public banks as China does would be something for the future, if at all. Meanwhile, AMLO has been a trailblazer in showing how a national public banking system can be initiated quickly and efficiently. The key, it seems, is just to have the political will — along with massive support from the public, the legislature, local business leaders and the military.

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This article was first posted on Truthdig.com.

Ellen Brown chairs the Public Banking Institute and has written thirteen books, including her latest, Banking on the People: Democratizing Money in the Digital Age She also co-hosts a radio program on PRN.FM called “It’s Our Money.” Her 300+ blog articles are posted at EllenBrown.com. She is a frequent contributor to Global Research.

The NATO allies of the UNSC held another emergency meeting to wail loud crocodile tears for the terrorists occupying Idlib who are actually on the UN’s terror list, and on the terror lists of the countries of the NATO tripartite aggressors, the P3 who called the emergency session.

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The impoverished UN may have gotten a big donation, able to post news of the meeting to its website, unlike after the Arria Formula process when OPCW investigator Henderson said there was no chemical attack in Douma, times were tough.

Special Envoy to Syria, Geir Pedersen wailed about witnessing “the humanitarian catastrophe that the Secretary-General has warned of.” He lamented the dissolution of the cessation of hostilities brokered by Russia and Turkey, lamented the losing sight of a “principle of proportionality,” and essentially suggested that Syria is wrong in trying to rid itself of terrorists. He called for another CoH and called for confidence-building between the government and the savages. Though Idlib has been under foreign terrorist occupation since the early days of the crisis, Pedersen shamelessly described “the biggest al Qaeda haven since 9/11” as “a refuge for hundreds of thousands of civilians from other parts of Syria who fled violence.

He called for Syria to stop defending its citizens, via an immediate [unilateral] CoH.

The beleaguered Mark Lowcock continues to hear voices. He shamelessly normalized Turkey’s criminal occupation of certain areas of Syria, which is not part of Turkey. He also called for Syria to stop defending its citizens, via an immediate [unilateral] CoH.

Karen Pierce (UK) was at her most vile. The terrorist pathogens who safely took the green buses to Idlib she magically transformed into “people who fled the fighting,” and was really pissed they are not allowed to continue their slaughter. She lied about International Law, and threw flowers of approval for Turkey’s breach of that International Law. The consummate colonialist, Dame Pierce sadistically asked the Syrian Representative why the conflict persists.

She called for Syria to stop defending its citizens, via an immediate [unilateral] CoH.

NATO allies in the UN did not call an emergency meeting when terrorists bombed this apartment building in Aleppo.

Kelly Craft (US) continued the fraud, describing armed terrorists as innocent people. She lied about the hospital, said that children were being driven from their homes. She demanded the imposition of 2254 (2014). She cheered Turkey’s criminality in Syria and claimed criminal invader Turkey has a right to Orwellian self-defense while illegally in Syria.

She called for Syria to stop defending its citizens, via an immediate [unilateral] CoH.

NATO allies did not call for an emergency meeting when terrorists bombed another Aleppo neighborhood.

Nicolas de Riviere (France) uttered the most venomous of lies, suggesting France never forgave Syria for Evacuation Day, and engaging in Freudian projection, dumping the crimes of France against its people, at Syria’s feet. He lied about hospitals, he lied about war crimes (and demanded punishment), and he insanely lied that fighting terrorists increases them.

He demanded Syria stop defending its citizens.

NATO allies did not call for an emergency meeting when terrorists bombed another neighborhood in Aleppo.

Assorted penholders, house servants, and other underlings regurgitated the warmongering of the P3 NATO allies.

Imagine a large gang of armed thugs break into your home, start stealing your work materials, slaughtering your family, and you manage to kill a few of them.

Then, imagine a group of suits halfway around the world, seated in fine surroundings, announcing that the murderous, thieving, thugs have a right to defend themselves against you.

Basking in the limelight of NATO P3 favored dog-of-the-day show, Turkey’s ambassador, Feridun Hadi Sinirlioǧlu sanctimoniously and smugly railed against a”clique in Damascus.” He bragged about his regime hosting Syrian refugees, while neglecting to mention that Turkey set up a refugee camp before the crisis began, that it was later used for sex tourism, especially regarding Syrian children, many of whose bodies were used for organ ‘harvesting.’ He deceptively moved the raiment of Erdogan’s tyranny into Syria.

He called for Syria to stop defending its citizens, via an immediate [unilateral] CoH.

The P3 NATO script demonized the Syrian Arabi Republic, and bestowed victim status upon the criminally insane pathogens armed by NATO, whose unimaginable horrors would never be tolerated in the UK, US, and France.

the-guardian

His Excellency, Dr. Bashar al Jaafari received permission from Marc Pecsteen De Buytswere, Belgium’s pro tempore president, to address the Council. Pecsteen’s P3 bias was already on record as part of the NATO whitewash of terrorism in Syria, while attempting to throw the sewage onto Syria. Ignoring the fact that President Assad has stated no country which tried to destroy Syria would have part in its reconstruction, Pecsteen held up his little coin purse for all to see, shook it, and threatened that the European Union would not assist in reconstruction until the SAR ceased to fight the terrorists and submitted to the colonial imposition of UNSCR 2254 (2014).

Pecsteen pretended that nobody knew that once upon a time, Belgium was a leader in dumping its human garbage into Syria, who were subsequently, magically, and moderately armed, and who enjoyed the energizing benefits of Captagon, which magically fell from the heavens, like manna (Belgian garbage is prominently featured in the colonial, alliterative, ICCT Foreign Fighters Phenomenon which fretted about what to do when their criminally insane returned home.).

He also pretended that nobody knew that Belgian special operatives continue to illegally be on the ground, in Syria.

A Belgian Jihadist in the ranks of the FSA, the Free FROM Syrians Army

A Belgian Jihadist in the ranks of the FSA, the Free FROM Syrians Army

His Excellency Jaafari addressed the Council as the meticulous voice of reason against the rabid NATO hyenas who transformed the UN from the place to maintain peace and security to a place to demolish peace and security, to destabilize societies.

Dr. Jaafari again brought attention to the elephant in the Council meeting, which continues to be ignored in all [anti] Syria meetings. This elephant distorts the landscape of his country, for the purpose of discrediting and smearing. He noted that those [self-afflicted] members engage in “a kind of addiction as to the unilateral scene” in the SAR, and that “the general [accurate] scene is not advisable in this Council.”

Syria’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations brought to the attention of the Council, that transfers of funds from two authorized NGOs, Denmark Refugee Council (DRC) and Adventist Development & Relief Agency (ADRA) have been prevented from the transfer of allocated funds for humanitarian needs in Syria. These transfers have been “being blocked by mediation banks in Europe and New York,” since July 2019.

This illegitimate interference has thwarted the planning of other projects by these legitimate humanitarian groups, the good diplomat noted. H.E. Jaafari abstained from mentioning the illicit liberty that NATO countries have, in their own distribution of humanitarian essentials into his country.

Syria’s ambassador reminded the Council that Turkey’s aggression against Syria, and the occupation of part of its territory is a breach against both International Law and the UN Charter. Dr. Jaafari reminded the audience that Jabhat al Nusra is listed as a terrorist gang, and as such, Turkey’s alliance with these savages is criminal. He emphatically noted that the Turkish pillaging of his country must be halted; that it is the responsibility of the state to defend its citizenry by combating terrorism throughout the country; he again invited member states to take their garbage home, from Syria.

The Permanent Representative of the Syrian Arab Republic advised the audience that the Security Council is not supposed to be a NATO meetinghouse, and, as such, the US ambassador had no legitimacy in stating that Turkey is a NATO ally.

He reminded all that Erdogan’s criminal threat to pray in Omayyad Mosque of Damascus was barked at the beginning of the creative chaos inflicted upon the SAR, therefore showing the criminal intention of the Ottoman imperialist to occupy Syria.

Dr. Jaafari instructed the guardians of al-Qaeda savages in Idlib, that since the beginning of the crisis, Syria has engaged in 17 CoH’s, and that every one of them had been breached by the beasts on two legs.

These were children just like yours or your brothers or neighbors.

He rhetorically asked why the Council never called an emergency meeting to discuss the bombardment of Aleppo, by terrorists breaching the CoH’s. He asked why such bombardment is acceptable to members who consider it impermissible that the Syrian Arab Army combat terrorists within its homeland.

The polyglot ambassador reminded the Council that more than two months ago, Syria opened three humanitarian corridors for the safe exits of civilians from [al Qaeda haven] Idlib, into government-controlled areas. SARC and Russian allies have been on standby, to assure the successful transit; however, the terrorists for which the NATO allies of the SC rend their collective garb, refuse to grant their freedom. Moderate al Nusra snipers have murdered near one dozen attempting to escape being used as human shields.

With whom do you wish us to hold a ceasefire? Cannibals? — H.E. Jaafari to the P3 NATO alliance Council members.

Ambassador Jaafari’s exquisite irony may have been too great a weight for the Belgian Pro Tempore, who tried to cut him off and offered a lie as an excuse (upon which UN WebTV momentarily cut the live feed.).

His Excellency Vassily A. Nebenzya intervened with a “Point of Order.” He carefully explained to the Belgian that the emergency Council meeting involves Syria, that Dr. Jaafari represents Syria and that the claimed five-minute rule is a recommendation, not a rule and that it should not be applied for “artificial reasons.”

Postscript:

In stunning coincidental timing, UK’s Channel 4 released another anti-Syria propaganda video, in collaboration with the stethoscope-less White Helmets. Though reputedly videoed in the summer of 2019, it suddenly followed the NATO called emergency meeting of the Security Council.

In their riveting story, a mom and thirty-five health professionals all somehow overlook the twin infant in incubator, while evacuating a hospital that does not exist, because of aerial bombings that have not happened.

The infant is kept naked ‘handed off’ from one man to another, with nobody having any idea when the baby might be reunited with derelict mom.

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All images in this article are from Syria News

The British Home Secretary supports an Israeli illegal forced annexation of the Occupied Palestinian West Bank whilst the Foreign Secretary is adamant that the UK will never support  illegal land grabs of either East Jerusalem or the West Bank.

Whose opinion will prevail?  The United Kingdom has been consistent in its declaration that Israeli settlements in the Occupied Territories are a violation of accepted international law and the Geneva Conventions on Human Rights, and our Foreign Secretary clearly reiterated this position during the week.

The situation is crystal clear as is the unanimous UN Security Resolution 2334 which demands the repatriation of all 600,000 illegal settlers back to their homes in Israel.

For the Home Secretary, however, to treat the UNSC with such contempt does not auger well for Britain’s place within the international community of nations.  Perhaps it would be advantageous for her to be moved to a department where she could do less damage.  Maybe Minister for Culture would be appropriate as it would not entail foreign travel or gratuitous interference in Britain’s foreign affairs, as unfortunately occurred in her previous ministerial position from which she was forced to resign.

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Hans Stehling (pen name) is an analyst based in the UK. He is a frequent contributor to Global Research.

Featured image is from IMEMC

Truth has broken through for those confused about how a publisher ended up in a maximum security prison in London with a one-way extradition ticket to court in the U.S. and the rest of his life behind bars.

One of the main German TV channels (ZDF) ran two prime-time segments on Wednesday night exposing authorities in Sweden for having “made up” the story about Julian Assange being a rapist.

Until last night most Germans, as well as other consumers of “major media” in Europe, had no idea of the trickery that enmeshed Assange in a spider-web almost certainly designed by the U.S. and woven by accomplices in vassal states like Sweden, Britain and, eventually, Ecuador.

ZDF punctured that web by interviewing UN Rapporteur on Torture Nils Melzer. One ZDF “Heute Sendung” segment (in German) is especially telling from minute 13:00 to 15:30 . The second is ZDF “Heute Journal” (minute 25:49 to 30:19.)

Both ZDF programs show Melzer being interviewed, with minimal interruption or commentary, letting his findings speak for themselves about how allegations against Assange were “made up” and manipulated to hold him captive.

The particularly scurrilous allegation that led many, including initially Melzer, to believe Assange was a rapist — a tried and tested smear technique of covert action — was especially effective.  The Swedes never formally charged him with rape — or with any crime, for that matter.  ZDF exhibited some of the documents Melzer uncovered that show the sexual allegations were just as “invented” as the evidence for WMD before the attack on Iraq.

Melzer had previously admitted to having been so misled by media portrayals of Assange that he was initially reluctant to investigate Assange’s case.  Here is what Melzer wrote last year in an op-ed marking the International Day in Support of Torture Victims, June 26.

No major media would print or post it. Medium.com posted it under the title “Demasking the Torture of Julian Assange.”

Excerpts:

“But surely, I found myself pleading, Assange must be a selfish narcissist, skateboarding through the Ecuadorian Embassy and smearing feces on the walls? Well, all I heard from Embassy staff is that the inevitable inconveniences of his accommodation at their offices were handled with mutual respect and consideration.

This changed only after the election of President Moreno, when they were suddenly instructed to find smears against Assange and, when they didn’t, they were soon replaced. The President even took it upon himself to bless the world with his gossip, and to personally strip Assange of his asylum and citizenship without any due process of law.

In the end it finally dawned on me that I had been blinded by propaganda, and that Assange had been systematically slandered to divert attention from the crimes he exposed.” (Emphasis added.)

Melzer ended his op-ed with this somber warning:

“… This is not only about protecting Assange, but about preventing a precedent likely to seal the fate of Western democracy. For once telling the truth has become a crime, while the powerful enjoy impunity, it will be too late to correct the course. We will have surrendered our voice to censorship and our fate to unrestrained tyranny.” (Emphasis added.)

Melzer’s indefatigable efforts to expose what Assange has gone through, including “psychological torture,” met with some modest success in the days before the German ZDF aired their stories. Embedded in the linked article is by far the best interview of Melzer on Assange.

Opposition to extraditing Assange to the U.S. is becoming more widespread. Another straw in an Assange-favorable wind came last week when the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) called for Assange’s immediate release, ending years of silence by such European institutions.

It remains, nonetheless, an uphill struggle to prompt the British to think back 800 years to the courage of the nobles who wrested the Magna Carta from King John.

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Ray McGovern works with Tell the Word, a publishing arm of the ecumenical Church of the Saviour in inner-city Washington. He is co-creator of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS).

Featured image is from Wired

Why Nancy Pelosi is “A National Disgrace”

February 7th, 2020 by Prof Michel Chossudovsky

Nancy Pelosi tears up Trump’s State of the Union Address.

“I thought it was a terrible thing,” said Trump. “It’s illegal what she did. She broke the law.”

On one thing I agree with Donald Trump:

Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi is a “National Disgrace”.

But not for the reasons mentioned by Trump.  

In all her public statements, Nancy Pelosi never mentions the war crimes committed by the Trump administration against the people of Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Palestine. 

Why? Because both Democrats and Republicans are committed to waging US led “humanitarian wars”.

And according to America’s media it was “collateral damage”: those US sponsored war crimes never happened.

“The War on Terrorism” and the “Responsibility to Protect”(R2P) are part of a bipartisan consensus approved by the US Congress, implemented by Bush,  Obama and Trump.

In a bitter irony, the media debate has centered on Nancy Pelosi committing an illegal act by tearing up a copy of Trump’s State of the Union Address rather than on the illegality of Trump’s  “Deal of the Century”:

“The Deal of the Century” which constitutes a violation of international law is a non-issue for the Speaker of the House.

Nor does Nancy Pelosi mention Trump’s unbending support of the Netanyahu regime including the crimes committed against the People of Palestine. According to the Jerusalem Post  “Nancy Pelosi reaffirmed her commitment to the State of Israel”.

Nuclear War 

Both the Dems and the Republicans are supportive of the Pentagon’s 1.2 trillion dollar nuclear weapons program initiated under Obama.

It’s all for a good cause.

It’s expensive for US tax payers, but it’s worth it, and it is not illegal.

According to authoritative US and Canadian media, America’s nuclear arsenal “makes the world safer”.

“War make us safer and richer” according to the Washington Post.

And that’s not “fake news” because the new generation of “more usable” tactical nuclear weapons or mini-nukes are  “harmless to civilians” (according to scientific opinion on contract to the Pentagon).

The mini-nukes have an explosive capacity from one third to 12 times a Hiroshima bomb.

Nancy Pelosi rips up her copy of Trump’s State of the Union Address


Screenshot of Trump’s email message

 

I agree with Trump that “what she did on Tuesday night” was not only idiotic (“a childish act”), it also reinforces the probability that Trump will win the 2020 elections, to the detriment of the Democratic Party.

At this juncture Nancy Pelosi constitutes a setback for the Democrats.

And this is the campaign the Trump people have launched, sending millions of emails to American voters. (As well some Canadians. I happen to be on his email list).

(PS. the screenshot below is for information purposes only)

 

 

 

 

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I’m writing this letter to myself. I need to talk to someone, even it is only myself. I need to believe that what happened to us was real.

All that I know of the past was learned by word-of-mouth histories from those who came before me and those few historians who remain now.

Some matters I know directly.

We don’t talk much anymore to each other because it takes too much physical effort.

It has been tiring to write this letter by the dim light available to me either in or outdoors, day or night. But it helps to distract me from the situation everyone is in.

Some matters I know directly. We don’t talk much anymore to each other because it takes too much physical effort. It has been tiring to write this letter by the dim light available to me either in or outdoors, day or night. But it helps to distract me from the situation everyone is in.Many years back I was part of the BMR or the Baltimore Metro Resistance. I was part of the BMR when I was young and I guess I still am a member now.

My parents migrated to Baltimore from Virginia. They are gone now, killed in fighting by bullet, blade, bomb, artillery or missile. That’s what I was told. I often wish now that I would have died with them, such are the circumstances these days.

There were other resistance groups in the former United States of America that I know of: Los Angeles, Houston, New Orleans, Saint Louis, Chicago, Detroit, Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, Charlotte (North Carolina) and Miami. Millions flocked to these locations in hopes of defending themselves from the brutal federal and state militaries; para-military security forces and mercenaries, and local police.

When I was very young, I became a courier in the BMR transporting everything from letters, food, ammunition, tools, medicine, water. I eventually became a competent, adaptable fighter with about an average talent for writing. There were so many thousands of us that were BMR fighters but only about 100 of us at any one time had the responsibility to compose three page letters that would serve as a narrative of the day or night’s activity. The letters included stories of combat, the details of terrain, retreat or advance, stalemates and casualties, poems, puzzles, trivia, anything that could be read for a few moments of escape. Once composed the many letters written by all of us went into a zip lock plastic bag, and circulated throughout our metro area for reading.

War

War does funny things, I suppose, like bring people together or tearing them apart or both. In tearing apart the United States, the government, clearly not intending to do so, brought people together, at least in our case. Our BMR was made up of black, white, latino, asian, and mixed race fighters, young and old, LGBTQ, anyone who accepted our cause. History, race, ethnicity or class no longer mattered to any of us. Sure, their were leaders and order necessary for operations, everyone below a leader was trained in how and when to fight and with what. Tactics and strategy did not belong to an elite particularly since no one could afford to be located at a central command post.

The only reference points in time I have for a starting point for the emergence of the resistance groups, or I suppose city-states, is 2020 to 2045. Beyond that, I don’t know whether it is now late in the 21 St Century or early in 22nd Century. Our oral historians told us that, at least in the then United States, martial law was declared during those years and the US Constitution and Bill of Rights were suspended. Government pensions, medical benefits, food assistance, environmental protections and every form of civilian aid were suspended apparently in about 2025 by presidential order. Elections were also suspended with the president appointing those who he thought should represent the people. Tribunals took the place of courts. A few other presidents came and went, I was told, but the die was cast: the allure of power was too much to for anyone to care about the general populace.

These were frantic times in the BMR as everyone knew an attack by government forces was imminent. But with the number of metro areas offering refuge and armed resistance, plus the ongoing wars the government was waging overseas, there would have to be careful planning by the enemy military leaders. Our strategists and tacticians reminded us that high ranking government military commanders were plodding, conventional thinkers bound up in the false promises of technology.

I learned that during the initial setup of the BMR, major food and clothing chains, drug stores, camping and fishing outlets, boats docked of any type, fuel from gas stations, water sources, weapons of all types from gun shops and ammunition all took part in emptying their shelves and stocking all the goods at various hardened sites in the BMR. Bank vaults, below ground parking garages and wherever there was a below ground facility were stocked. Prepositioned stocks of weapons, ammo and food were stored outside the Baltimore City limits. Shipping containers loaded with canned goods or plastic water bottles were submerged in the Baltimore harbor.

Tunnel construction began in earnest, tiered defenses were setup for BMR’s inner, outer and suburban areas. Choke points were set that would funnel attackers into kill zones. Booby traps, crude land-mines and even crossbows were used during the fight. Bicycles and skate boards were put to good use since fuel was severely rationed. Methods of communication had to be devised that would not emit heat because they would be detected by electronic warfare packages on enemy aircraft. We had to devise a low flying drone defense and we had to find a way to hide critical weapons and stores from satellites. Again, we lucked out because a lot of satellite and drone time was allocated by the government forces to their overseas conflicts.

Advantages

We had the good fortune to have in the BMR Johns Hopkins medical and research personnel on our side along with most of the air and space staff moving in with us from Goddard space flight center not far away. Many from nearby Fort Meade and some from the former National Security Agency joined us. I am not sure of the functions of many of those people but I know that doctors, technologists, space researchers and weapons developers were among them. We were able to develop our own drones that were used for reconnaissance.

I have heard that nearly 40 percent of those forces joined the resistance bringing with them weapons, munitions, vehicles and, more importantly, training. I learned too that a some Virginia Class Submarines, three strategic ballistic missile nuke submarines, a handful of AEGIS warships, and even one Carrier Strike Group joined the resistance too.

Of those, two Virginia Class attack submarines joined the BMR along with two AEGIS warships. Initially, no one in the BMR was sure what to do with this firepower but it didn’t take long for the technologists and military personnel that came ashore to suggest good use of the Navy vessels.The one SSBN that was aligned with the BMR may have served as a deterrent to the government nuking us. But it and one of the two Virginia attack class subs would have to take to the deep ocean to be effective. I did not learn of their fate. We were not nuked, I know that.

The other attack submarine that stayed with us had a nuclear power source. I don’t understand how they did it (though we did have some pretty smart people in our camp) but they were able to move the nuclear power source to a facility deep within the BMR. I guess the idea was to use it to power a BMR of the future. I’m not sure what came of that effort though in the end it didn’t matter.

The Virginia attack sub arrived to us loaded with cruise missiles and a couple of Navy SEAL units. The SEALS would push back an attack by other Navy SEALS dispatched by submersible from pro-government submarines to infiltrate and terrorize the BMR. They were essential to our defense and raiding/scouting efforts.

Cruise missiles were fired from our Virginia attack sub and I think they found their way to artillery and tank emplacements that initially surrounded us. The AEGIS warships managed to fend off some aircraft and missile attacks but ultimately succumbed to anti-ship missiles homing in on their heat signatures. The sub was eventually sunk by torpedo, I think.

Lucky

We figured we had a fighting chance against our opponents but make no mistake: it was because events were taking place outside the United States that might make our struggle successful. It is one thing to quell an internal rebellion, quite another to succeed against 100 million resistance fighters tucked away in metro areas while trying to win wars in foreign lands, on and below the world’s oceans, and in space. We figured that our opponents would eventually run short of fuel and munitions with so many to fight and we, luckily, were right.

Still, like all the other resistance groups around in the former United States and around the world , we lost thousands and thousands during the relentless barrages from air, sea and land. We started out poorly in defending the BMR on the ground but after fits and starts managed to push back our enemies. We learned that the Miami, Florida and Charlotte. North Carolina BMRs were defeated. Both Florida and North Carolina had a heavy government military presence and even with the help of those in the military that came to the aid of the resistance it wasn’t enough.

We celebrated the cessation of fighting for a short time. We all were skeptical that it was really over but our scouting parties found abandoned tanks, vehicles, artillery pieces and a lot of dead and decaying bodies.  The peace was short lived. Then nukes came. And then the planet rebelled.

During some short time period, some fateful decisions were made by the former United States, Russia, Pakistan, India and China.

Who knows the sequence but the end result was horrifying.

I guess the first thing to say was that China decided that US  Pacific fleet forces, the three Carrier Strike Groups there, were vulnerable.

China decided to take on those forces with their conventional forces and suffered badly. The Chinese surface, subsurface and air forces were largely destroyed. Given that hundreds of millions of their own people were fighting their Peoples Liberation Army within their own borders the vaunted advantage of PLA ground forces vanished.  With their naval forces destroyed by the United States and Pacific allies, they decided to launch nuclear weapons at Japan, Okinawa, Guam and Taiwan where the US fleet had a presence. The same weapons were launched at the three carrier groups in the China area of operations with the result being the elimination of US forces.

At the same time. Russia decided that the time was ripe for moving further into Ukraine, the Baltic’s and Europe, into  a barely armed Germany. Meager NATO forces supported by sacrificial US support units were no match for the Russians.

Seeing defeat, the US launched scores of tactical nukes to stop the onslaught.

At the same times, India and Pakistan decided to settle their scores by launching their stock of nukes at each other. Nuclear warheads flew between those two countries and around the globe. We learned that Newport News, San Diego, sub bases on the East and west coasts of the United States were destroyed by nukes. Washington, DC, Houston and New Orleans were also eliminated. Ground based missiles anywhere in the world, in our case in the Northwest, were cratered by nukes turning those places into radioactive no go zones.

The Nukes Time ended. Our skies were psychedelic with colors that defied sense. Orange, gray, blue, yellow, black colors would appear each day. It was getting cold as the sun seemed to fade into the distance. Our Geiger counters registered high but tolerable radiation. But many of us started feeling sick.

We learned, thanks to our telecommunications, internet and satellite technicians that the scene was the same all over the planet. Populations of the former United States, Russia, China, India, Pakistan Europe, Brazil, Malaysia, Mexico Indonesia, the African nations, were all now displaced moving by sea or land in hopes of surviving somewhere.

After the Nuke Time there was another calm period. Many of us were worried about this. We had all forgotten about Climate Change and planetary disturbances.

Earth Revolts

I remember one day waking up in the BMR thinking that the Earth had fallen away under me. I learned that the West Coast earthquake had finally come putting Los Angeles and the West Coast of the United States into the Pacific ocean. The volcano that was said to be dormant in the Pacific northwest exploded sending soot and tremors throughout the former United States. It was undeniable that the Earth said Enough! There were earthquakes and subsequent Tsunami’s everywhere. Volcanic eruptions around the Earth were so severe that the sky turned black.

Snowflakes made of ash fell from the sky. Respiratory distress was the norm. People coughed so hard that they vomited blood.

Probably the worst image of the times was picked up by a couple of our drones roaming over Ocean City, Maryland. Marine life started to appear on the beaches dead or dying. Thousands of people mauled each other and the dead, beached creatures for something to eat. The video was awful particularly since we knew that anyone eating the toxic meat from the oceans would have convulsions and vomiting with 24 hours and would die. The worst thing we saw from these video feeds was that people slaughtered each other for what they thought was good food.

All the coastal cities in the world are gone, sunk into the oceans. The oceans have turned into some viscous polluted mass. The seas and vicious weather pursue us up into the high ground or wherever we go.

I am ending this letter. I will drink a pint of vodka, take many  opioids and go into the black. But before that, I will put this letter into the zip lock bag and bury it somewhere.

****

Sir.

Yes, what is it.

Our sentient droids scattered around and above this planet have uploaded our data for analyses into the primary ship.

Good.

Make sure that all the sentient programming on this planet is upload back into the bio machinery. There is much to analyze.

Of course, sir.

Sir, one of our archeo devices has come across what appears to be a first hand account of the demise of this planet.

Good, construct it, translate it and send it to me.

Yes.

Are you ok ,sir?

Yes, this narrative is very sad, moving even. Well, put this in the archives with the other data retrieved from this planet.

Again, do not leave any of our sentient programs in this place. Send out warning satellites outside the ring of debris that surrounds this planet. Send out a warning using universal Planck communications that this place is toxic.

Let us move out of this solar system.

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John Stanton can be reached at [email protected]. He is a frequent Contributor to Global Research

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BRI-led Eurasian integration processes are one of the defining characteristics of contemporary International Relations, and the Golden Ring could eventually become the centerpiece of these efforts if Ambassador Hosseini’s W-CPEC+ proposal succeeds, especially if it’s done in parallel with N-CPEC+.

The Iranian Ambassador to Pakistan shared his visionary plans for CPEC+, the neologism that’s becoming popular in Pakistan nowadays to refer to the expansion of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor along different geographic axes such as the northern (N-CPEC+), western (W-CPEC+), and southern (S-CPEC+) ones. Turkey’s Anadolou Agency reported on Ambassador Seyyed Mohammad Ali Hosseini’s lecture at the Islamabad Strategic Studies Institute (ISSI) earlier this week, which deserves to be analyzed more in depth.

According to Ambassador Hosseini,

“Establishment of rail network between Gwadar and Chabahar and its link up to Europe and Central Asia through Iran, will usher major economic development in the region. On the other hand, construction of Railway track on Pakistani territory to China, linking the two ports will lead towards economic development in this region.” In practice, this would fulfill what the author wrote about W-CPEC+ in his CGTN analysis last April titled “CPEC+ is the key to achieving regional integration goals“.

In that piece, he wrote that

“Pakistani Prime Minister Khan’s recent visit to Iran saw the two neighboring countries agreeing to deepen their cooperation with one another, which could foreseeably evolve to the point of a W-CPEC+ overland trade route eventually traveling through the Islamic Republic to Islamabad and Beijing’s partners in Turkey, which could be paired with a parallel maritime corridor connecting CPEC’s terminal point of Gwadar with the Gulf Kingdoms.”

That’s exactly what Ambassador Hosseini proposed during his lecture at ISSI (minus the part about the Gulf Kingdoms), which could revolutionize Iran’s geostrategic role in the emerging Multipolar World Order and consequently make it one of the most important countries of China’s Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) if successfully implemented with time. Not only could this have significant economic implications, but also significant political ones as well.

The Ambassador is also quoted by Anadolou Agency as saying that “Countries like Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, Russia and China have the potential to form a new alliance for better future of the region”. While China and Russia eschew the term “alliance” to describe their close relations with other countries, the intent of his words is clear enough in that he’s calling for a strengthened strategic partnership between all five of those countries. This becomes a realistic possibility between China, Pakistan, Iran, and Turkey if W-CPEC+ is completed.

As for Russia, it could be brought on board this ambitious connectivity proposal if W-CPEC+ is expanded to include it via Azerbaijan by following the path proposed by the North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC) that those two, Iran, and India are trying to build. Moreover, the pioneering of a Russia-Pakistan trade corridor via post-war Afghanistan and Central Asia (N-CPEC+) could greatly contribute to making Moscow a greater stakeholder in this CPEC-centric strategic quintet that some have called the “Golden Ring“.

BRI-led Eurasian integration processes are one of the defining characteristics of contemporary International Relations, and the Golden Ring could eventually become the centerpiece of these efforts if Ambassador Hosseini’s W-CPEC+ proposal succeeds, especially if it’s done in parallel with N-CPEC+. The five anchor states of this connectivity vision could be linked to one another and the states between them (Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, and the Central Asian Republics) through a multitude of rail and other transport corridors built by China.

Through these means, China would be functioning as the engine of Eurasian integration and tying all of the involved countries closer together in a Community of Shared Destiny. The complex interdependence that would emerge as a result of this vision would make each party greater stakeholders in one another’s success, with the construction of multilateral megaprojects giving their citizens unprecedented economic opportunities. The CPEC-centric Golden Ring would therefore strengthen stability in the geostrategic Heartland of Eurasia.

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This article was originally published on OneWorld.

Andrew Korybko is an American Moscow-based political analyst specializing in the relationship between the US strategy in Afro-Eurasia, China’s One Belt One Road global vision of New Silk Road connectivity, and Hybrid Warfare. He is a frequent contributor to Global Research.

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Just a few hours before the J31 Fare Strike convened at Grand Central Station, I had the opportunity to speak with Mayor de Blasio as a call-in to the Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. I alerted the Mayor to the fare strike taking place that day, scheduled by various NYC transit advocacy groups in reaction to the 500 new Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) officers Gov. Cuomo and ex-NYCTA Pres. Byford approved to monitor the subways. I mentioned that both parties publicly admitted that the purpose of the officers is not public safety, but instead to issue fines as a means of lost revenue recuperation. These officers are being deployed at a cost of $250-million over three years, or as I said, at least 2.5 million fare-evasion tickets.

Being that de Blasio has touted himself as being against over-policing and the criminalization of poverty, I asked how he could allow this to happen in his city? I continued to press him on whether he would support a fare-free system, which studies have shown can lead to better funding of mass transit budgets.

The Mayor provided a very politically pat answer. To the point of a fare-free system, he responded that it was an interesting idea but he struggles to understand the logistics. To the issue of the 500 new MTA officers whose purpose is to penalize the impoverished without even a pretense of safety, he commented that the MTA officers would have to go through the NYPD’s community policing training programs. I’ll speak to the aforementioned logistics later, but as a first-hand witness to the NYPD’s community policing tactics last night, I’d like to begin there.

Lesson in Civil Disobedience

Upon arrival at Grand Central Station, there were groups of NYPD officers holding semi-automatic rifles and German shepherds on the platform. I was carrying a protest sign and could feel their eyes affixed on me. I was terrified on account of being alone, if they were to accost me there would be no witnesses. Fortunately, I quickly ran into friends. We entered the main concourse and joined the mass of protesters who assembled in the center surrounded by police. My friends were carrying a badminton set with them and began setting it up as a way to exercise joy in defiance of the scare tactics demonstrated by the police. Within seconds we were bum-rushed by dozens of NYPD officers. Two of us were literally picked off the ground by the police and immediately arrested, no questions, no warning. Legal-aid volunteers pushed forward to the defense of my friends, and I witnessed NYPD officers body check them so that the volunteers weren’t able to follow.

Over the next two hours I witnessed cops tackling non-violent protesters, I witnessed a man cuffed with his hands behind him get punched in the back of the head by a cop, I witnessed an officer press a man’s head to the floor using his boot, and I overheard many cops with their fingers on their gun holsters joking with each other about teaching everyone a lesson. These are the community policing techniques the Mayor believes I should feel rest assured the MTA is following?

This will likely fly over the heads of everyone at the State, the City, the MTA, and the NYPD, but it was them, not us, who escalated first. The 500 new officers is an act of aggression. Unarmed protesters were met by haughty officers carrying weapons and riot gear. The protesters reacted in a show of resistance to the MTA’s and NYPD’s show of force. The 1,500 additional armed officers deployed that day to monitor stations in order to “maintain peace” were blatantly inciting violence. Preparing for disorder is a self fulfilling action.

One of the reasons the original FTP coalition protest was held was in reaction to six instances where African-American teens were physically assaulted by NYPD officers over fare-evasion. About two years ago the Mayor’s office announced an order to the NYPD to discontinue arrests for fare-evasion and other minor infractions, and to not engage in the use of force while issuing infractions. I was disappointed to receive such a flat answer from Mayor deBlasio considering that the State and MTA are undoing a good measure which he once proudly enacted.

The Transit Adjudication Bureau released data that shows 89% of those arrested for fare-evasion are black or Latino. After being pressured to do so by a lawsuit, the NYPD finally released data proving that they target less affluent communities of color for fare-evasion. If the supposed purpose of an increased police presence is to promote safety and prevent crime, then why are these officers hiding until they can issue tickets or make arrests? Why are they wearing plain clothes? Why are they peaking from behind doors and pillars? Why are they monitoring cameras and not patrolling stations? Shouldn’t the purpose of a police force be more than penalization? Who does this protect and who does this serve?

When I reconvened with my friends after they had been released with court summonses, they had lacerations on their wrists from the zip tie riot cuffs being placed on too tightly. They had been transported without seat belts, their hands tied behind their backs, on an MTA bus to the 103rd Precinct in Jamaica – a 13 mile multi-borough trip from where they had been arrested. This raises an unsettling question… What in the hell were the NYPD and MTA doing transporting arrested individuals on a public transit bus operated by an MTA driver? Last I checked the city has paddywagons and corrections buses for that – I saw many of them parked outside Grand Central last night. This is an abuse of power, an exercise of the police state, and its only imaginable purpose would be to obfuscate the efforts of the legal aid volunteers, making it harder for them to determine where those arrested were being transported. My friends were charged with loitering and obstruction of traffic – phony charges for unlawful and unnecessary arrest. No crimes were committed.

Ha, community policing.

Logistics of Fare-Free Funding

Returning to the point of Mayor de Blasio failing to understand the logistics of a fare-free system funded entirely by taxes, I find that laughable. The system is already largely funded by state and federal taxes and subsidies! It’s much harder to fiscally reconcile a system suffocated by debt due to a dependence on municipal bonds. 17% of the MTAs 2020–2023 operating budget – nearly $2.9-billion each year, over 1 billion swipes – is devoted to debt services. Ex-NYCTA President Byford’s supposedly revolutionary budget plan requires additional issuance of municipal bonds and increases the deficit over the next three years. For those of you who don’t know what municipal bonds are, they’re investment tools used by banks and wealthy individuals to financially profit off sending the city these same businesses and investors reside in further into debt. This additionally allows the very same banks, corporations, and wealthy individuals to avoid paying their fair share in property and income taxes which would be utilized to maintain an appropriately funded city budget. In contrast to the Mayor, I fail to see how a system that relies on pay-per-ride farebox recovery works – because so far in the history of the MTA it hasn’t! The system has been in debt since the city first acquired it from the private companies which once operated it, and since then it has amassed nearly $44-billion worth of debt in the form of municipal bonds.

In order to increase revenue acquired from fares, an increase of ridership or a fare increase must occur. With the MTA limiting service on many of its lines for much needed repairs that I and other transit advocates support, it is unlikely they will see an increase in ridership until these repairs are completed. As for a fare increase, that is always expected to be met with great opposition and the threat of ridership decreasing – all it does is force more of a burden onto the needy who have no choice other than to use public transit, and inadvertently promotes the use of personal vehicles and cabs which contribute to congestion, gridlock, traffic, and pollution. A budget dependent on fare recovery projections, and not funded in advance by taxes, can never be expected to function efficiently.

The Gross Metropolitan Product of the NYC metropolitan area is roughly $1.5-trillion. All income earners in the NYC metropolitan area are required to match their state tax contributions with a city tax. If we want to be simplistic about a tax approach to replacing the current farebox funding, a 0.5% tax increase on all income earned in NYC would generate $7.5-billion a year – an additional $1-billion than that generated by NYCT, LIRR, and MNR fares – of which less than 60% goes to fund city subways and buses. This tax increase would end up costing a family whose combined income is $100,000/year only $500/year, or roughly the cost of 4 unlimited monthly MetroCards. If we wish to tax businesses rather than individuals, I would suggest we tax the institutions who benefit most from New Yorkers having the ability to travel easily. These are the Banking Institutions who have robbed the city through the control of its debt and the Real Estate Investment Trusts who capitalize on gentrification. If we wish to tax those who don’t take advantage of a mass transit system and by doing so contribute to congestion, traffic, gridlock, and pollution, we can tax the parking facilities who have skated by paying minimally in property taxes while generating huge profits, and the ride-share companies who are able to operate at loss-leading rates by mistreating their employees and avoiding taxes through loopholes. Whatever the method, nearly every single subway and bus rider would find themselves saving money on transportation by mass transit being funded through taxes rather than fares. In addition, riders would benefit from the most well funded MTA since its inception.

A fare-free system may seem somewhat confusing when all New Yorkers have ever experienced is the fare we’ve been subjected to paying, but it’s hardly a radical idea. Smaller cities across America have adopted a fare-free system, and as a result they’ve witnessed a larger, more balanced budget, an increase in ridership, and a decrease in personal-vehicle traffic. New York has lead the way in public transit for many years – it’s inherent to our identity as it’s the vital circulatory force that gives our city life – but its success has been hindered by debt and underfunding. A fare-free system is a safer system, a more efficient system, and a system that can combat systemic classism and racism by empowering people through its equity. Protesters like myself represent the best interests of this city and I hope we are treated amicably and with dignity by our fellow New Yorkers in our efforts.

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Coery Eiesbnreg is an artist and writer living in Brooklyn and blogs at medium.com/@coeryeiesbnreg.

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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has ordered his forces to strike Syrian army positions in retaliation for targeting a Turkish military convoy bound for the Saraqeb in Syria’s north-western Idlib province. His forces obeyed on Monday and allegedly struck a number of Syrian army positions, killing, he claims, 75 troops. The Syrian army was simply exercising the country’s right to self-defence when it fired on an invading convoy, killing five Turkish soldiers and one civilian and wounding nine. This right is guaranteed by international law and the UN Charter.

The Charter says the “exercise of this right of self-defence shall be immediately reported to the Security Council”, which should be expected to take action to “maintain or restore international peace and security”. Of course, the Council will do nothing if Syria lodges a complaint against Turkey, which has been committing aggression against Syria for nearly nine years. Turkey has also enjoyed tacit Western backing for this campaign and has been joined by the US, which has used Syria’s Kurds to seize vast areas of the eastern provinces of Raqqa and Deir Ezzor and the latter’s oil fields. 

Nevertheless, Turkey’s impunity seems to be coming to an end. Russia, which tried and failed to rein in Erdogan’s ambitions in Syria, has at long last decided to challenge Ankara’s “charade” claims it is only defending Turkey’s “interests” by invading Syria.

However, this could be a dangerous business. The Trump administration cannot be counted upon to curb Turkey, while Ankara could call on “all-for-one-one-for-all NATO” partners to defend Turkish forces illegally invading Syria if Turkey is resisted by the Syrian army and Russia. It is unlikely, however, that NATO would become involved as the heartland of the alliance would not be under threat.

Turkey and Russia were supposed to be partners in the Astana process designed to bring an end to the civil and proxy wars in Syria. Under a 2018 agreement, they were meant to impose a ceasefire in Idlib, now controlled by Al Qaeda’s Hay’at Tahrir Al Sham and its allies, and take other steps to stabilise the province. The ultimate objective was to prevent an all-out Syrian army offensive against insurgents based in Idlib where some 3 million civilians dwell.

While joint patrols were meant to monitor the ceasefire, Turkey was assigned the tasks of separating taqfiris from “rebels” and disarming the former, expelling heavy weapons and taqfiris from a buffer zone around Idlib, opening the north-south and east-west highways passing through Idlib and preventing attacks on Syrian forces from Idlib. When Turkey did not meet any of its commitments, Russia unleashed the long-planned Syrian army-Russian offensive to retake Idlib. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is now crying foul and claiming falsely that Russia reneged on its commitments.

It looks as though the Astana partnership is over. The break-up was inevitable. Turkish and Russian aims were always at odds. Soon after unrest erupted in Syria in March 2011, Ankara did everything it could to undermine and overthrow the government. Turkey invented the Free Syrian Army, to fight the Syrian army, and the Syrian National Council, to take over from the government, but neither proved to be of much use. Hordes of foreign takfiris were recruited to join the battle but the objective of the most successful group, Daesh, was the founding of a false “caliphate”. They are considered a threat to the international community.

Russia has formed an alliance with Syria that goes back to the days of the Soviet Union and gave the government both political and military support. At the end of September 2015, Russia dispatched its air force to provide Syrian troops air cover for operations. This turned the tide of battle and enabled the Syrian army to recapture most territory seized by taqfiris and so-called “rebels”.

Erdogan did not give up on his plan to oust the government but pretended that he and his Russian counterpart Valdimir Putin were both dedicated to finding a peaceful end to the Syrian conflict. Ultimately, Putin and the current occupant of the White House, Donald Trump, will have to contain Erdogan. Since Trump launched his “Deal of the Century” plan for a Palestinian-Israeli settlement, Erdogan has loudly condemned this plan in the hope of leading regional opposition to it. This has almost certainly alienated Trump, who had been in the habit of consulting Erdogan on Syrian and regional affairs and meeting his demands. Trump does not take snubs lightly.

If the Syrian war is to end sooner rather than later, Putin and Trump will have to reach an accommodation on Turkey’s actions in Syria and the 25 per cent of Syrian territory held by US-sponsored Syrian Kurdish forces. Since Putin is a far more powerful world figure than Erdogan, and Trump seems to admire Putin more than Erdogan, some sort of Syrian post-war political agreement just might be achieved at the Turkish leader’s expense.

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On February 4, Chief Judge Beryl A. Howell issued a ruling on what the jurors will be allowed to be told in the trial of the Embassy Protectors scheduled to begin on February 11. She granted most of the government’s requests to prevent the jury from hearing important facts about the case, leaving the protectors with little in the way of a defense.

The courtroom will not be an oasis of truth in Washington, DC. The fact that Nicolas Maduro is the lawful president of Venezuela, not the coup leader Juan Guaido, cannot be uttered in that courtroom. Even though everyone, including the judge and prosecutors, knows that Guaido has not served one nanosecond as president since his self-declared presidency one year ago, the jurors will not be allowed to be told that critical fact. They will be led to believe that Guaido’s fake ambassador Carlos Vecchio is real.

Judge Howell argued that the court was bound by precedent that says courts must accept the decision of the president as to who is the leader of a foreign country. If the president says Mickey Mouse is president and Donald Duck and Goofy are his ambassadors of another sovereign country, then in the US courts that is the legal fiction they must abide by.

This is important in the Embassy Protectors’ case because the government’s excuse for entering the embassy to make false arrests was based on Carlos Vecchio, a fake ambassador of a fake president, giving them permission and ordering the eviction of the protectors. He was the Donald Duck to Guaido’s Mickey Mouse.

Other relevant topics that cannot be discussed are international law and events during the first 33 days in the embassy. The jury won’t be told that it is standard practice for governments to negotiate protecting power agreements, which was going on while the protectors were in the embassy. The jury will not know that the Protectors were prepared to leave the embassy voluntarily once a protecting power agreement was reached between the US and Venezuela.

The jury won’t know the Trump administration violated the Vienna Convention by raiding the embassy on May 16. The protectors cannot talk about the facts that the State Department failed to protect the embassy from break-ins by pro-coup advocates and that they allowed the breaking of windows and doors, defacing of the embassy and both threats and assaults of people inside and outside of the embassy.

The judge believes this information will confuse the jurors. Yes, the jurors would be confused if they knew the police allowed the Embassy to be damaged and stood by as people were assaulted, but it is members of the Embassy Protection Collective who were charged with interfering with their so-called “protection of the embassy.”

The judge also ruled the protectors could not argue that their First Amendment political rights were violated.

The protectors are not completely defenseless. Judge Howell ruled that the statute for interfering with protective function requires the government to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that the four protectors acted knowingly and willfully, meaning they had an intent to break the law. She is permitting the protectors to say they believe that Maduro is president, but they can’t state the fact that he is the president.

The trial of the four Embassy Protection Collective members begins on February 11 and is expected to last about one week. The trial starts at 9:00 am at the Prettyman Courthouse, 333 Constitution Ave., NW, Washington, DC, room 22-A, Judge Beryl Howell.

We want a physical presence at the courthouse on the 11th. However, because individuals entering the courthouse may be potential jurors, we are calling on all supporters of embassy protectors not to approach any individuals with handouts who may be entering the courthouse. For information about what is deemed appropriate behavior on the day of the trial see Call For Support at the Upcoming Hearing and Trial.

With all these restrictions imposed on the Protectors, the chances of their conviction have increased dramatically. It is clear that we now have a longer, more protracted legal battle on our hands. We therefore need to raise the level of our fundraising goal for their legal defense and ask our supporters to continue making donations. You can contribute to the legal defense fund of the Protectors at DefendEmbassyProtectors.org.

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Michael Welch’s GRTV  feature interview with UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of Human Rights in occupied Palestine, Prof. Michael Lynk.

The plan will take us backward. It violates international law.

It is an unilateral arrangement between Israel and the Trump Administration.

It recognizes the annexation of the Golan Heights.

A Third of the West Bank will be annexed to Israel.

All the settlements will be annexed to Israel. 

Annexation is illegal.

Watch the interview below.


The Mandate of the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Palestinian Territory occupied since 1967

Mr. S. Michael Lynk © PhotoThe task of the Special Rapporteur is to assess the human rights situation in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, report publicly about it, and work with governments, civil society and others to foster international cooperation. The Special Rapporteur undertakes regular visits or missions to the Occupied Palestinian Territory and reports annually to the Human Rights Council. OHCHR provides him with logistical and technical assistance. The current Special Rapporteur is Mr. S. Michael Lynk (Canada), who was appointed in 2016.

The mandate of the Special Rapporteur derives from the 1993 resolution from the Committee of Human Rights. The mandate calls on the Special Rapporteur:

(a)  To investigate Israel’s violations of the principles and bases of international law, international humanitarian law and the Geneva Convention relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War, of 12 August 1949, in the Palestinian territories occupied by Israel since 1967;
(b)  To receive communications, to hear witnesses, and to use such modalities of procedure as he may deem necessary for his mandate;
(c)  To report, with his conclusions and recommendations, to the Commission on Human Rights at its future sessions, until the end of the Israeli occupation of those territories;

The Special Rapporteur is an independent expert appointed by the United Nations Human Rights Council to follow and report on the human rights situation in the Occupied Palestinian Territory. Special Rapporteurs are not United Nations staff members; they do not receive a salary from the United Nations, and do not work for any government or interest group, allowing them to maintain their independence. The Special Rapporteur’s status as an independent expert makes him distinct from the OHCHR Country Office. OHCHR in Geneva provides secretariat services to the Special Rapporteur, as it does to all Special Procedures mandate-holders.

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An interview was recently given by UN Special Rapporteur on Torture, Nils Melzer, to Republik on Julian Assange.  The headline reads “A murderous system is being created before our very eyes”. During the interview, Melzer details just why he has got so involved in Assange’s case and what the implications of it are for the future of humanity.

Just to recap, Julian Assange, the former Wikileaks editor, was arrested last year after spending years incarcerated in the Ecuadorian embassy, where he sought asylum for fear of being deported to the US to face charges relating to his publication of leaked documents. It was back in 2010 that Wikileaks published damning evidence of torture and unlawful killings carried out by the US army, provided for by Chelsea Manning. He subsequently was wanted by Sweden on charges of rape, charges which have since been dropped, and which it has been suggested were part of a set-up to engineer Assange’s deportation to the US. Ecuador finally gave him up to the UK authorities last April, by inviting them into the embassy to extract Assange, after seven years of interment within the embassy walls.

The Wikileaks founder’s ordeal is set to continue however, it seems. The 48-year old is currently wasting away inside Belmarsh prison, where he was kept for months in solitary confinement, before incredibly, prisoners themselves protested and asked that he be allowed to mingle with the others.  The authorities recently agreed to this concession, but it all too little too late it seems for a man who has been destroyed by the US and British governments, for essentially trying to tell the truth.

As for Nils Melzer, he explains in his recent interview why he has specifically got involved in Assange’s case. His reasons are given as follows: 1. He says that Assange was disclosing evidence of systematic torture by the US army, but he himself has been persecuted for this. 2. Assange has been so ill-treated that he is now exhibiting signs of psychological torture. 3. There is a high chance of him being extradited to a country which Amnesty International has condemned for its use of torture. He also feels that the case has a special symbolic significance for the future of our democracies.

There are many extraordinary points made in Melzer’s interview, which I thoroughly recommend reading: the made-up rape allegation and fabricated evidence in Sweden, the pressure from the British authorities not to drop the case, the biased judge, detention in a maximum security prison, psychological torture – and future extradition to the US, where he could face up to 175 years in jail for exposing war crimes. But I think one of the most significant is the role that the media has played in this case. For Melzer admits that even he, initially, until he became aware of all the facts, was prejudiced against Assange as a result of what he saw and heard in the media. And it was the mainstream media that first began publishing false accusations that Assange had been accused of rape, the media that blackened his character.

The role of the media in Assange’s downfall cannot be underestimated. Even now, very few mainstream journalists are willing to cover his plight. Melzer states that the whole point of Assange’s ‘show trial’ has been to intimidate journalists from doing what Assange did: “The message to all of us is: This is what will happen to you if you emulate the Wikileaks model.”

He believes the case is a scandal and ‘represents the failure of Western law’. If convicted, he will consider it to be a ‘death sentence for freedom of the press.’

If anyone was to be convicted, Melzer argues, it should have been the individuals who carried the massacres and torture Julian Assange reported on. But to date, not one has been charged, nor any criminal investigation been carried out into their actions. Instead, Assange has been the victim of a new harsh reality: “It is becoming a crime to tell the truth” Melzer states.

On Wednesday it was reported that a petition has been signed by over 130 prominent Germans in favour of Julian Assange’s release. The signatories include names such as former German vice-chancellor Sigmar Gabriel and previous vice president of the European Commission, Gunter Verhuegen.  The petition states that Assange’s continued detention in the UK’s highest security prison – Belmarsh – violates his human rights, particularly given his poor state of health.

But these pleas are likely to fall on deaf ears. In Assange’s case it’s clear who is calling the shots, and that even European governments have been at the mercy of the US’ demands. And yet western nations follow the US’s lead at their own folly – our democracies are crumbling before our very eyes.

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This article was originally published on InfoBrics.

Johanna Ross is a journalist based in Edinburgh, Scotland.

Democrats Seek to Suppress Sanders Victory in Iowa

February 7th, 2020 by Patrick Martin

The effort by the Democratic Party establishment to conceal or suppress reports of Senator Bernie Sanders’ victory in the Iowa caucuses reached a new stage Thursday with Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez calling on the Iowa Democratic Party to “immediately begin a recanvass” of the state.

The twitter statement by Perez came only hours after the final figures from the Iowa Democratic Party showed Sanders more than 6,000 votes ahead of former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg in the February 3 caucuses, and behind by only two “state delegate equivalents,” out of 2,152, in the process that will lead to the awarding of Iowa’s delegates to the Democratic national convention.

With all but one of nearly 1,800 precincts tallied, Sanders led Buttigieg by 43,671 to 37,557 votes, with Senator Elizabeth Warren in third place with 32,553, among initial ballots cast at the caucuses. Sanders had 24.8 percent of the vote compared to 21.3 percent for Buttigieg.

Sanders had a smaller lead in the second round, after those backing “unviable candidate” (those with less than 15 percent support) were allowed to switch their votes. Buttigieg’s lead in “state delegate equivalents” arises from the overrepresentation of rural areas, where he ran stronger, in the apportioning of delegates.

The statement by Perez appeared to have two purposes: to provide cover for the Democratic Party in response to widespread accounts of inaccuracies and contradictions in the Iowa vote reporting, including a lengthy account posted on the New York Times website Thursday; and to further muddy the outcome of the caucuses, in which Sanders won a clear popular vote victory despite the effective tie in the number of delegates won.

Sanders wiped out Buttigieg’s narrow lead in delegates thanks to votes in satellite caucuses, which were held outside normal hours or outside the state to accommodate voters unable to attend the regular caucuses that began at 7 p.m. Monday night. In two results reported Thursday, one satellite caucus for night-shift workers at a food processing plant in Ottumwa, and the other for students and workers at Drake University in Des Moines, Sanders collected nine “state delegate equivalents” compared to zero for Buttigieg.

It is noteworthy that Perez issued his statement knowing that Sanders was about to hold a press conference in New Hampshire, where he is campaigning for the February 11 primary, to declare victory in Iowa. Sanders again refused to make any criticism of the Iowa Democratic Party for delaying the report of the results for many days.

In his tweet, Perez acknowledged “problems that have emerged in the implementation of the delegate selection plan” and urged a complete recanvass “in order to assure public confidence in the results.” A DNC official told the press that this would involve a hand audit of worksheets and reporting forms from every precinct and satellite caucus, checking for inconsistencies, mathematical errors and other mistakes. The scale of such an effort could postpone any final report of the Iowa results for days, and perhaps even until after the New Hampshire primary, the second contest in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Image on the right: Tom Perez (Source: Flickr/Gage Skidmore)

Iowa state Democratic Party Chairman Troy Price said that he was prepared to order a recanvass, but only if requested by one of the campaigns, not by Perez, who has no actual authority to order the review. None of the campaigns has yet requested a recanvass, and it is not clear that any of them will, since those candidates who finished below the top two, including Warren, former Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Amy Klobuchar, want the public to forget about Iowa as quickly as possible.

The dueling statements from Perez and Price conceal their underlying political alignment: Price was the Iowa state director for Hillary Clinton’s campaign in 2016 before becoming state chairman; Perez was the choice of the Clinton wing of the party to head the DNC, narrowly defeating Representative Keith Ellison, backed by Sanders and Pete Buttigieg in his first national effort. Both Price and Perez are adamantly opposed to the nomination of Sanders, who calls himself a “democratic socialist.”

The New York Times account, under the headline, “Many Errors Are Evident in Iowa Caucus Results Released Wednesday,” was based on a precinct-by-precinct analysis that suggested both math errors in the tallies and more serious violations of rules governing the caucuses, including more people voting in the second round than in the first, and votes being subtracted from “viable” candidates, when their totals should only have increased.

The Times claimed there was no pattern in the errors, in terms of favoring Buttigieg or Sanders, the two leading candidates. Its analysis did not include well publicized and cruder errors in the initial count, such as awarding hundreds of Sanders votes to former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick, who did not campaign in Iowa, and hundreds of Warren votes to billionaire Tom Steyer. These mistakes were publicly corrected by the Iowa Democratic Party, but they obviously did not add to the credibility of the overall result.

The figures showed the gap between Buttigieg and Sanders, in terms of “state delegate equivalents,” narrowing to near nonexistence. That did not stop the bulk of the corporate media from continuing to present Buttigieg as the surprise victor in Iowa and Sanders as the second-place finisher, and even claiming that Sanders’ comfortable lead in the polls ahead of the New Hampshire primary was in danger.

An example of this was a headline on the website of Newsweek magazine, which read, “Pete Buttigieg Gaining Quickly In New Hampshire As Bernie Sanders Stalls: Poll.” The article was actually reporting a poll in which Sanders led with 31 percent of the vote, with Buttigieg in second place at 21 percent. The report admitted that “Sanders maintains a healthy lead in the state where he won more than 60 percent of votes in the 2016 contest.”

The main concern of the Democratic establishment is not Sanders himself—a proven defender of capitalism and a longtime collaborator with the Democratic Party leadership in the Senate and House. It is that the nomination of a candidate who publicly (if less and less frequently) embraces the socialist label and who professes his opposition to war and militarism could provide encouragement to the leftward movement of millions of working people and youth who are looking for a way to fight back against the capitalist system.

There are further signs of the deep political crisis wracking the Democratic Party. Campaigning in New Hampshire, former Vice President Biden took up the anti-socialist cudgel wielded by Trump in his State of the Union address. “If Senator Sanders is the nominee for the party, every Democrat in America up and down the ballot, in blue states, red states, purple states, easy districts and competitive ones, every Democrat will have to carry the label Senator Sanders has chosen for himself,” Biden said. “He calls him—and I don’t criticize him—he calls himself a democratic socialist.”

The Biden campaign was in visible crisis, purging both the Iowa state director and the Iowa field director after the dismal showing there, and shifting advertising money from the South Carolina primary on February 29 to the Nevada caucuses February 22 in an effort to avoid losing the first three contests in the Democratic race. Biden admitted in one campaign appearance Wednesday that the Iowa caucus had been a “gut punch” to his campaign.

Meanwhile, the Sanders campaign announced that it had raised $25 million from more than 648,000 donors in January, the best fundraising month of the campaign, with an average donation of $18, most of it on-line. These included 219,000 first-time donors. A campaign statement declared, “Working class Americans giving $18 at a time are putting our campaign in a strong position to compete in states all over the map.” According to Sanders aides, “teacher” was the most common occupation, and the top five employers of those making contributions were Amazon, Starbucks, Walmart, the US Postal Service and Target.

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Last month, U.S. Customs and Border Protection adamantly denied that it was detaining U.S. citizens and legal permanent residents of Iranian descent and interrogating them about their religion and political views. The agency also assured the public that it had not issued any directive related to the detentions and interrogations.

There was already strong reason to question CBP’s denials, given the mounting and consistent reports that border officers were, in fact, targeting travelers of Iranian heritage returning to Washington state from Canada. Now, we have even more reason to think CBP lied.

Last Thursday, a local Washington paper published a leaked CBP directive, which appears to have originated with CBP’s Seattle Field Office. Sure enough, the directive instructs officers to target and detain travelers based on their national origin and to interrogate them about their religious background and beliefs.

Leaked CBP Directive

Source: The Northern Light

If this directive is authentic, CBP has been caught in a lie — one that concealed troubling and abusive treatment of travelers who hadn’t done anything wrong.

The directive is a damning document. It makes clear that CBP officers are to target and detain travelers whose national origin or citizenship is Iranian, Lebanese, or Palestinian. It also explicitly instructs officers to interrogate these travelers on their religious affiliation and beliefs, specifically making references to Muslims of the Shia sect.

To be clear, the government has the authority to question travelers to verify their identity, citizenship, or legal status, and to conduct reasonable searches for contraband. The government cannot, however, select travelers for further questioning based on their national origin. And questioning travelers about their political views, associations with others, or religious beliefs and practices can infringe on rights guaranteed by the Constitution and federal law, which we do not surrender at the border.

This kind of biased targeting is nakedly discriminatory. It wrongly renders whole classes of people inherently suspect simply by virtue of who their parents are, where they were born, or what religion they practice. It is also, in many ways, an extension of the Muslim ban — which affects a large number of Iranians — and the Trump administration’s stereotyping, unjust profiling, and targeting of Muslims more broadly.

This targeting is also incredibly demeaning and stigmatizing to the people who experience it. One mother who was detained in Washington state by CBP in early January couldn’t bring herself to explain to her two young children what was happening during their detention. Instead, she went outside the facility to cry so they wouldn’t see her break down. Others — including U.S. citizens and lawful permanent residents — lamented that even if they are born in the United States or have lived here for decades, they’re still being treated as outsiders.

The reported CBP directive also puts the agency’s downright bigotry and ignorance on full display. The directive states that CBP is looking for people with connections to the military or Iran’s specialized Quds Forces, and then draws a broad and vague connection to the Shia sect of Islam. But there are between 160 and 210 million Shia Muslims worldwide, and approximately 93% of Iran’s population is Shia, so the connection CBP is drawing is based on nothing but bias.

CBP goes on to warn in the directive that “anyone can state they are from a different faith to mask their intentions.” But one’s faith — whether it is Islam, Christianity, Judaism, or any other religion — says nothing relevant about one’s “intentions,” whatever that means. That is why this kind of broad-brush targeting, in addition to being wrong and unfair, is a colossal waste of time and taxpayer resources.

Compounding these concerns, the directive instructs CBP’s highly secretive teams, dubbed Tactical Terrorism Response Teams, or “TTRTs,” to vet travelers of Iranian, Lebanese, or Palestinian heritage. According to public statements by CBP officials, these secret teams already have a troubling record of harassing innocent travelers, and the officers who comprise them may rely on their “instincts” to target travelers who the government has never identified as posing a security risk. We’re currently suing CBP over the secrecy shrouding these teams.

The leaked directive continues a broader pattern of CBP misconduct that ranges from humiliating and harassing to cruel, inhumane, and lawless. CBP treats the border as a massive dragnet for vacuuming up intelligence on anyone who crosses it — a gross distortion of CBP’s actual authority. And this is not the first time CBP has lied or misled the public to conceal its misdeeds. CBP officers have written fake court datesto send asylum seekers back to Mexico and distorted statistics to mislead the public about realities at the U.S.-Mexico border.

We will continue to hold CBP accountable and demand that Congress investigate CBP abuses. In the meantime, it is critical for all travelers — U.S. citizens, legal residents, and visitors — to know and assert their rights when crossing the border.

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Scarlet Kim, Staff Attorney; Hugh HandeysideSenior Staff Attorney

The administration’s new managment plans “are the latest in a series of insults… that began when Trump illegally dismantled Bears Ears and Grand Staircase at the behest of corporate interests two years ago.”

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Tribal and conservation groups on Thursday condemned the Trump administration’s “unconscionable” final management plans for Utah lands previously protected as national monuments, which critics warn will open up the region to ranchers who want to graze livestock and companies looking to cash in on the area’s oil, gas, and coal.

In a joint statement Thursday, critics charged that the U.S. Interior Department should not have finalized the plans while President Donald Trump‘s December 2017 decision to severely shrink the Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante national monuments is still being challenged in federal court.

“It’s the height of arrogance for Trump to rush through final decisions on what’s left of Bears Ears and Grand Staircase Escalante while we’re fighting his illegal evisceration of these national monuments in court,” said Randi Spivak at the Center for Biological Diversity. “Trump is eroding vital protections for these spectacular landscapes.”

Several advocacy group leaders, including Conservation Lands Foundation executive director Brian Sybert, denounced the administration’s plans as irresponsible and dangerous.

“This reckless management plan is an attempt to circumvent the courts, plain and simple,” said Sybert. “It threatens one of America’s richest cultural landscapes, along with living indigenous cultures tied to it since time immemorial. The destructive plan not only ignores tribes, it ignores a majority of Americans—both nationwide and in the West—who do not support the reduction of Bears Ears in the first place.”

Theresa Pierno, president and CEO for National Parks Conservation Association, said that

“the administration’s reckless management plans set our worst fears in motion, leaving these treasured monuments and surrounding national parks needlessly vulnerable. The new plans put at risk the very things these sites were established to protect, including sacred spaces, adjacent national park landscapes, and troves of cultural and scientific resources.”

As the Washington Post explained,

“the expanses of wind-swept badlands, narrow slot canyons, and towering rock formations are sacred to several Native American nations and prized by scientists and outdoor enthusiasts. Bears Ears contains tens of thousands of cultural artifacts and rare rock art. In the rock layers of Grand Staircase, researchers have unearthed 75 million-year-old dinosaur fossils.”

The Salt Lake City-based radio network KSL reported on the Interior Department’s explanation for releasing the final plans Thursday:

Casey Hammond, Interior’s acting assistant secretary for land and minerals management, said if the agency had to wait to act until litigation was settled, “we would never be able to do much of anything around here.”

The plans impacting lands in the Grand Staircase region eliminate grazing along the Escalante River but do allow for minerals extraction in former monument lands. Grazing was also eliminated in some regions of the former Bears Ears monument, now named Shash Jaa, including Butler Wash and Comb Wash.

Hammond, in a morning teleconference, said despite assertions to the contrary, there is little interest by industry in oil and gas development in the regions, and the final management plans do nothing to change the status of the federal lands, which won’t be “sold off.”

“Any suggestion these lands and resources will be adversely impacted by being excluded from monument status is certainly not true,” he said. “There’s very little interest in mineral development on these lands.”

However, those fighting against Trump’s decree to carve up the monuments aren’t buying the administration’s claim that the management plans won’t imperil the previously protected land in Southern Utah, as well as Indigenous peoples and wildlife who have long called it home.

“This sellout to big oil firms, which comes after the Trump administration slashed the size of the two monuments in late 2017, is more evidence of extremely tight ties between U.S. Interior Secretary David Bernhardt and industry,” said Alan Zibel, research director at Public Citizen’s Corporate Presidency Project.
Zibel released a report last month detailing how Bernhardt’s former lobbying clients have dropped nearly $30 million to convince the Trump administration to serve the fossil fuel industry.

“Millions in spending on lobbying and close personal ties between lobbyists and the Trump Interior Department have proven devastating for America’s public lands and an outright bonanza for oil and gas interests,” he said. “Bernhardt has consistently favored industry over conservation interests and public health. Rather than listen to the millions of Americans who want to preserve these precious national monuments, the Interior Department consistently chooses to sell off our public lands to the highest bidder. Opening these special areas to exploitation threatens cultural and natural resources that never can be replaced.”

Carly Ferro, interim director of Utah Sierra Club, said the plan for Bears Ears “is nothing more than a wholesale handout to extractive industry, one that is illegitimate since President Trump illegally shrunk Utah’s monuments to begin with.”

“These plans are atrocious, and entirely predictable,” declared Sharon Buccino, senior director of lands at the Natural Resources Defense Council. “They are the latest in a series of insults to these magnificent lands by the Trump administration that began when Trump illegally dismantled Bears Ears and Grand Staircase at the behest of corporate interests two years ago.”

As Mary O’Brien, Utah forests programs director at Grand Canyon Trust, put it:

“There is nothing to be gained from this plan except the destruction of fossils, the expansion of scorched-earth cattle grazing and non-native forage seeding, the loss of dark skies, more roads and unenforced off-road motorization, more extraction from dwindling springs, and more unrecorded wildlife losses—all for what? To show what one president can do to any of our country’s national monuments, at any time, for any self-serving political reason?”

Shaun Chapoose, a representative for Ute Indian Tribe, accused the Trump administration of “failing in its treaty and trust responsibilities to Indian tribes,” a sentiment that was echoed by Davis Filfred, board chairman of Utah Diné Bikéyah.

“The Trump administration’s final management plan for Bears Ears National Monument,” said Filfred, “is an example of how the federal government continues to ignore Indigenous voices, and the sovereignty of the Navajo Nation, Hopi Tribe, Ute Indian Tribe, Ute Mountain Ute Tribe, and Pueblo of Zuni.”

Those native groups are all involved in the legal challenge to Trump’s decision to shrink the monuments.

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A showdown is underway in the Midwest as the owner of a large Missouri peach farm seeks to hold the former Monsanto Co. accountable for millions of dollars in damage to his crops—losses the farmer claims resulted from a corporate strategy to induce farmers to buy high-priced specialty seeds and chemicals.

The trial got underway on January 27 in US District Court in Cape Girardeau, Missouri. Farmer Bill Bader, who has grown peaches in Missouri’s “Bootheel” region for 40 years, is seeking more than $20 million. The lawsuit alleges that Bader Farms lost more than 30,000 trees due to Monsanto’s actions, in collaboration with German chemical giant BASF, to profit from a new cropping system involving genetically engineered seeds designed to tolerate dousing of the herbicide dicamba.

Bader claims Monsanto sold GMO dicamba-tolerant soybean and cotton seeds despite knowing the actions would trigger chemical damage to farm fields that were not planted with the new seeds. The intent, the Bader Farms’ lawsuit alleges, was to induce farmers to buy the specialty seeds as a means to prevent crop damage from herbicide drift coming from neighboring farmers who were planting the GMO crops and spraying them with dicamba.

Testing showed that leaves of his dying peach trees carried traces of dicamba. The 5,000-acre family farm, which produced 5 million to 6 million pounds of peaches annually along with corn, soybeans, various berries, apples, and tomatoes, is now struggling to survive, according to Bader.

Monsanto, which was bought by Bayer AG in 2018, and BASF, which initially developed dicamba in the 1950s, have claimed that other factors are to blame for Bader’s problems on his farm, including a soil fungus. The companies deny they have any liability for his losses.

But among the evidence introduced at the Bader Farms trial are internal Monsanto documents showing that the company predicted thousands of drift complaints would occur after its new seed product launch.

Bader is only one of a large and growing group of US farmers who say they are the victims of a clearly foreseen chemical catastrophe many years in the making that has ruined crops covering millions of acres of farmland. Other lawsuits making similar claims have been filed on behalf of farmers from Mississippi, Kansas, Nebraska, Illinois, and several other key farming states.

Dicamba has been in use for more than 50 years, but traditionally farmers avoided applying the herbicide during warm months when crops were growing and did not apply it over large swaths of land due to the well-known propensity of the chemical to drift far from intended target areas.

That changed in recent years due to the waning effectiveness of a separate weed-killing chemical called glyphosate. Introduced by Monsanto in the 1970s, glyphosate was considered a highly effective weed killer for decades. Monsanto introduced genetically engineered glyphosate-tolerant crops in the 1990s, and as the company had planned, use of glyphosate herbicides exploded in agriculture. But with the expanded use of glyphosate, many weed varieties developed resistance to the chemical, a problem several scientists had warned the company would develop.

To combat the weed resistance, Monsanto decided to launch a new dicamba herbicide and sell new genetically altered seeds that would allow farmers to spray whole fields of crops directly with dicamba just as they had been doing with glyphosate, killing the weeds but allowing the crops to thrive.

Monsanto announced in 2011 that it was collaborating with BASF in developing the dicamba cropping systems and received regulatory approval for its “Xtend” GMO seeds in 2015. The company’s dicamba herbicide is called “XtendiMax.” BASF’s dicamba herbicide is called Engenia.

Just as scientists had warned of weed resistance with glyphosate, many scientists warned Monsanto that the new uses of dicamba would likely devastate farms not growing dicamba-tolerant GMO crops. The company assured growers its version of dicamba would not drift.

But then the company released its new seeds to the market before its new dicamba formulation was approved by the EPA, leading to scenarios in which farmers buying the new GMO crops started spraying old versions of dicamba in large volumes in warm months.

In addition to large fields of crops, dicamba drift is also reportedly damaging trees, gardens, and wildflowers that bees rely on for nutrition.

Officials at Bayer, which owns Monsanto, maintain that improved farmer training is resolving the issue.

Steve Smith, director of agriculture at Red Gold Inc, the world’s largest canned tomato processor, said Red Gold has managed to avoid damage to its produce so far but his own personal fruit trees at his residence have been wiped out. Smith has been lobbying for years for tight restrictions on the new dicamba system.

Smith, who was a member of an advisory council to Monsanto on dicamba, testified at the Bader trial, telling jurors that the company had ample warnings of the risks its dicamba system carried for farmers.

In 2012, Smith helped lead a coalition of more than 2,000 US farmers and food companies that sought to force government regulators to analyze the potential problems with the new dicamba system and a similar system using the herbicide 2,4-D, declaring then that the new herbicides posed a “real threat” to “nearly every food crop.”

He reiterated that point in an interview with Sierra. “We told them (Monsanto) over and over again it was not a good idea,” Smith said. “They keep saying it’s a matter of educating the growers. But the problem is not education; the problem is chemistry.”

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Iraq Is on the Brink of an Energy Crisis

February 7th, 2020 by Simon Watkins

As the deadline for the U.S. to renew its waiver on Iraq importing gas and electricity from Iran approaches later this month, the three key players in this ongoing geopolitical saga have been preparing for all possible outcomes. As always in the global hydrocarbons markets, particularly in the Middle East, nothing is what it seems on first sight, with each of the main countries involved looking at outcomes that go way beyond mere gas sales.

The positioning began in earnest last week with a virtue-signalling comment from the Trade Bank of Iraq’s chairman, Faisal al-Haimus, that the bank – the main vehicle through which Iraq pays for these Iranian imports – would stop processing payments is the U.S. does not renew the relevant waiver at this end of this month. This would affect the payments for the entire 1,400 megawatts (MW) of electricity and 28 million cubic metres (mcm) of gas from Iran that Iraq requires to keep its key infrastructure in power, for some of the time at least.

In this context, peak summer power demand in Iraq perennially exceeds domestic generation capabilities, made worse by its capacity to cause major civilian unrest in the country. The relatively recent widespread protests across Iraq – including in the major oil hub of Basra – were widely seen as being prompted in part by chronic electricity outages. The situation also promises to become much worse as, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Iraq’s population is growing at a rate of over one million per year, with electricity demand set to double by 2030, reaching about 17.5 gigawatts (GW) average throughout the year.

Ahead of the waiver renewal point this month, then, Iraq has been playing both the U.S. and Iran, as part of the ongoing tightrope act in which it has been engaged since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003. On the one hand, a senior oil and gas industry figure who works closely with Iran’s Petroleum Ministry exclusively told OilPrice.com last week, Iraq has repeatedly stressed to the U.S. that it cannot effectively function – including at its oil fields – without Iranian gas and electricity supplies until a realistic alternative is up and running.

This is aimed, said the source, at extracting more investment from the U.S. both directly and indirectly, including expediting deals tentatively and firmly agreed with the U.S. before the attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq occurred. The key deal remains an integral part of Iraq’s longstanding rhetoric about reducing the epic squandering of its enormous gas natural resources through flaring. This deal, involving the signing of a memorandum of understanding with a U.S. consortium led by Honeywell, would reduce Iraq’s current level of gas flaring by nearly 20%.

Specifically, Honeywell, partnering with another U.S. heavyweight, Bechtel, and Iraq’s state-owned South Gas, would build the Ratawi gas hub. This, in its first stage would process up to 300 million standard cubic feet per day (scf/d) of ‘associated gas’ (generated as a by-product of crude oil production) at five southern Iraqi oil fields: Majnoon, Gharib al-Qurna, al-lhiss, al-Tubba, and al-Siba.

“Moqtada al-Sadr [the effective leader of Iraq] knows that every time there is a hint that Iraq will continue with its historically close relationship with Iran, the U.S. comes in to offer the services of its companies at beneficial terms to Iraq,” the Iran source said.

In addition to this, Iraq has two natural hedge positions against the U.S. not extending its next waiver, and leaving Iraq supposedly without Iranian gas and electricity in the very short-term before U.S. investment and deals can actually put power on the ground in Iraq. The first of these hedges is that Iraq will just keep the money that it already owes Iran for previous supplies. According to a comment last week from Hamid Hosseini, a spokesman for the Iranian Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Association, up to US$5 billion in payments from Iraq to Iran for past gas and electricity supplies is sitting in an escrow account at the Central Bank of Iraq, but Iran cannot touch it because of the U.S. sanctions. In fact, according to the Iran source spoken to by OilPrice.com last week, the figure is US$6.1 billion, which, if the U.S. does not extend the waiver later this month, Iraq will just keep.

The second of Iraq’s hedges against the U.S. not extending the waiver on these imports from Iran at the end of this month is just to keep importing them anyway. Iraq has a very long porous border with Iran and an even longer history of using it – and shared facilities – to circumvent oil and gas sanctions, and there is no reason to assume that this will suddenly cease.

The question then naturally arises as to why Iran would agree to continue to supply Iraq with gas and other commodities if it cannot draw out money owed to it from the Iraq escrow account. The answer is twofold: first, Iran is working in a number of areas on essentially a barter-based business methodology, according to the Iran source. “It offers oil and gas resources to China and Russia and others which, in turn, offer Iran items it needs, such as technology items, chemicals, agricultural sector goods, and finance facilities, for example, so there are ways in which Iraq could pay Iran in currency of one sort or another,” he said.

The second option for Iran, and an idea of the assassinated Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander, Major General Qassem Soleimani, is that Iraq assigns leases and ownership to Iran through a wide range of IRGC-related entities to commercial real estate and businesses in the Shia-dominated areas of Iraq. This transfer of ownership on a limited scale has been taking place on an intermittent basis for a number of years, especially around Karbala, Najaf, and Nasiriyah, according to the source.

“It suits the Iranians well enough, as it is a way of cementing Iranian control across the Shia population of Iran, and it suits Iraq as well as it means it doesn’t have to part with any money, which is always a strain on the already strained budget, and it means that it can leave it to Iran to control the radical Shia elements in and around those regions,” he added.

Finally, the U.S. cannot lose either way. If it extends the waiver, it keeps the door open to Iran coming back to the table to renegotiate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal whilst also keeping Iraq on side for future U.S. energy projects and keeping it from fully defecting to the Iran-Russia-China sphere of influence. If it does not extend the waiver then a relatively large non-Shia section of Iraq will keep the government in the state of flux that it has been since the fall of Hussein, which also benefits the U.S.

This strategy was previously known as the ‘Kissinger Doctrine’ of foreign policy – analysed in depth in my new book on the global oil market – in which the U.S. attempts to keep power in balance across a broad region through individual states fighting amongst each other, usually based on exploiting factional and or tribal and/or religious differences between groups.

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Simon Watkins is a former senior FX trader and salesman, financial journalist, and best-selling author.

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Failed Prosecutions: Donald Trump Survives the Senate

February 7th, 2020 by Dr. Binoy Kampmark

Never undertake a prosecution unless you have good grounds, and prospects, for a solid conviction.  In the case against President Donald Trump, there was never a serious prospect that the Senate would cool sufficiently to give the Democrats the votes necessary to affirm vote of impeachment in the House.  The GOP remains very much in Trump’s pocket, a remarkable if opportunistic transformation given the innate hostility shown towards him prior to the 2016 elections.  With their allegiance pinned to the Trump juggernaut, the hope is that, come November, the entire effort won’t sink under the toxic miasma that is US politics. 

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had agonised over the original decision to pursue Trump through impeachment proceedings.  One argument that seemed persuasive was the sense that too much energy would be consumed in the process, taking away from the election cycle and jeopardising the campaign to oust Trump at the ballot box.  She held out for a time, keeping the firebrands at bay.  But the demands of her office, and those around her to do something to combat Trump’s claimed misdemeanours in office, were too profound to ignore.  Even if the effort was bound to loose, a stand had to be made. 

Political strategists, however, thought of alternatives as to how best to land enduring blows.  Douglas Heye, former deputy chief of staff to House Majority leader Eric Cantor, felt that censure was more appropriate and would have constituted “a serious rebuke of Trump’s action and might have even garnered some bipartisan support.”

Once commenced, the approach of the Democrats seemed clipped, a crude abridgment that was as much a matter of caution as it was of fear.  The articles of impeachment were narrow, pegged to the issue of Ukraine, the nexus with US electoral interference, and obstruction of Congress.  The meaty report of the Special Counsel, Robert Mueller, played no part. 

For all that, the case against Trump did convince Senator Mitt Romney, the only Republican to be swayed by the arguments that Trump be removed.  The bar for misconduct in executive office, as opposed to the wheeling and dealing that keeps company with the occupant of that office, remains a high one indeed.   

The school of thought favouring Pelosi – that the Democrats had to pursue the impeachment route – has force with the likes of Robert Kuttner, co-founder and co-editor of The American Prospect.  “Trump’s contempt for the rule of law was so flagrant that it would have been a dereliction of constitutional duty for the House Democrats to turn the other cheek.”  While Trump was not removed from office, “it had to be done, and could yet produce major benefits for the Democrats and the country.” Kuttner, it would seem, is no political strategist. 

Keith E. Whittington of Princeton University is also of similar mind.  There were a host of “good reasons”, he claims in Lawfare, in pursuing an impeachment process despite falling at the final hurdle.  It constituted “a kind of formal censure” and “an effort to reassert important constitutional norms.”  For all that, Whittington makes a concession.  While an impeachment process might not be a failure because it ends in acquittal, one “that heightens political divisions without reinforcing the proper limits on conduct of government officials is not much of a success.”

Those divisions were laid bare in their partisanship.  The Republicans ensured minimal scrutiny in the trial process itself, including jettisoning any prospect for calling witnesses.  Further avenues of embarrassment were cut off.  It was a reminder that, however such processes are framed, impeachment is a political scrap rather than a sober judicial assessment.  The Democrats, despite their desperate attempts to make Russiagate swallow Trump, or the allegations regarding the withholding of funding to Ukraine as a quid quo pro for investigating the Bidens, have not been able to shift the ground.

Trump’s fantastically oily manner of conducting politics – an aping of business acumen and crassness – has left opponents wanting.  He slips, ducks and eventually turns the gun pointed at him against the opponent.  He makes sure it is armed, then fires.  The impeachment episode is now being loaded and launched as a means of acquittal and exoneration, while the Democrats are being accused of failed venality. We, claimed Trump “have that gorgeous word.  I never thought a word would sound so good – it’s called, ‘total acquittal.’”  Arithmetic is evidently not the president’s strong suit. 

The ever demagogic Louis Dobb of Fox Business is also happily restocking the arsenal, having told his audience that the Senate had “acquitted President Trump of both charges fabricated by Congressional Democrats, led by Speaker Pelosi and Adam Schiff, to carry out the most egregious and partisan attack against any president in our history – a man they knew to be innocent.” 

The representative Republican position, and not just one held by them, was to be found in the views of the Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.  “Right now, this is a political loser for [the Democrats].  They initiated it.  They thought this was a great idea.”  In the “short term, it has been a colossal political mistake.”  Much reading of the tea leaves is bound to follow. 

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Dr. Binoy Kampmark was a Commonwealth Scholar at Selwyn College, Cambridge.  He lectures at RMIT University, Melbourne.  He is a frequent contributor to Global Research and Asia-Pacific Research. Email: [email protected]

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Italy and the Changing – But Not Waiting – World

February 7th, 2020 by Maurizio Vezzosi

Recently the French President, Mr. Emmanuel Macron, admitted that NATO should be considered cerebrally dead. Such a statement, although influenced by the search for domestic consent, certainly reflects a deep impatience with European and Atlantic limitations by French intellectuals in general. These statements also reflect the fact that France realises that the international framework has become multipolar, with the new prominence of Russia and China.

The French international strategy is in fact changing, with peculiar attention to Moscow, in light of its recent failures (Libya, Syria, Françafrique).

While Paris is not hiding her feelings against Atlantic constraints, Rome still appears to consider US foreign policy as her own: the Italian Defence Minister recently stated that the main threats to Italy’s national security are the Russian Federation and China. A decadent policy that gives away its crucial decisions to the EU or the USA. The current debate in Italy does not seem to connect the domestic socio-political situation to the international role of the country. During the First Republic (1945-1992) Italy was able to take some advantages from the atlantic constraint and thereby improve somewhat the country’s general conditions, although not entirely without conflict. This whole period was defined as a “limited suzerainty” era, imposed on Italy by the US occupation.

Current Italian foreign policy is still affected by the notion of a world split in two blocks. That notion was dictated by NATO membership, imposed by US occupation rather than by a free Italian choice.

The former advantages of that era are now just a memory. A combination of blind obedience to the USA, the fear of an external threat – the USSR yesterday and the Russian-Chinese alliance today and disregarding real national interests, will surely end up in tears. The same applies to the current condition of Washington’s atomic ammo depot, in the hope of unclear advantages. 13,000 US troops in Italy look like an occupation rather than an alliance, and Italian public opinion should consider that.

In recent years, US military interventions reduced to rubble some important parts of Italian foreign policy, such as Libya, ex-Yugoslavia, Somalia and Syria. Instead of opposing them, Italy always supported these interventions, at the cost of her international stance, relations, and public money, exposing thousands of Italian troops in the Middle East to unnecessary risks.

In a multi-polar global framework, the very existence of  NATO is hard to understand, unless we consider it a tool of US decaying domination over even their allied countries, helped by time-honoured money flows. Notwithstanding all this, important sectors of the political and economic Italian ruling class keep liturgically repeating the importance of the moral link between Europe and the USA, and NATO membership is never questioned. An attitude Italy can hardly afford, at the cost of her economic, political and moral decadence.

The results of the clumsy attempt to keep up a shabby status quo can be clearly seen in the country’s stagnation, in its de-industrialization and in the massive migration of its young talented ones. Meanwhile, a significant section of Italian intellectuals is lazily giving up the task of developing an Italian-specific policy, oriented by real peoples’ needs. This in turn causes the obsolescence of Italian institutions and a general impoverishment of Italian politics. The progressive decadence of national identity and culture is leaving ample space to reactionary and xenophobic views. These in turn are generating popular disaffection and a general contempt towards politics.

Italian intellectuals are usually divided between Atlantic or Franco-German loyalty. Some of them seem to think that the solution to US domination is to stick with French and German governments, both of which have clearly shown that they do not consider Italy a fair partner, or a real ally. Notwithstanding the good intentions, EU interests are exactly the opposite of the Italian ones.

A real Italian realpolitik should admit that Italy does not have any allies inside the EU. Others maintain that an “exclusive” or “privileged” relationship with Washington would balance the monetary, political and military pressure of France and Germany. But the USA are considering Italy as simply one of their outposts, or one of the tools of their foreign policy. Italian weakness will never generate wealth or prosperity, and this illusion will only make matters worse. Italy keeps half heartedly supporting sanctions against the Russian Federation, Iran and Syria. Relations with the latter country were broken in 2011, just before its de-stabilization began. Before that, Italy was one of the main partners of that country. Although common sense would suggest to patch up the Italo-Syrian relations, the Italian state television refused even to broadcast an interview with its President, Bashar al Assad.

Libya seems to clearly explain the current Italian weakness: notwithstanding the cease-fire appeals by Italy, Russia and others as well as the Berlin meeting, a solution remains far from near. Very few dare now to admit that the invasion of Libya was the worst Italian defeat since WWII. In November, the Russian ambassador in Italy, Sergey Razov, declared: “Our approaches [Russian and Italian] are largely the same. We ask for a general cease-fire and support an international high-level meeting with all the interested countries, and a pan-Libyan forum”.

While the country’s decline is getting more and more evident by the day, breaking the atlantic and European constraints is crucial. What we need is a new Mediterranean and continental perspective, and Italy should freely design its own strategic relations. Italy is placed in a sea that, small as it is, is probably the most important of the whole planet, and should keep that in mind.

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This article was originally published in the Italian magazine “Quadrante Futuro”.

Maurizio Vezzosi is an Italian freelance analyst and reporter based in Rome.

Neocolonialism and Geopolitical Rivalry in Sri Lanka

February 7th, 2020 by Asoka Bandarage

Sri Lanka’s historical narrative has been defined by geopolitical rivalry, external aggression and internal resistance to that aggression. The early historical era experienced successive waves of invasion from South Indian kingdoms. These were followed by European conquest and consecutive rule of the coastal lowlands by the Portuguese (1505-1666), the Dutch (1666-1796) and the British (1796-1815).

There have been numerous sea battles among rival powers to control Trincomalee, the second-deepest natural harbor in the world, situated on the island’s east coast. Of great strategic military value, it has been controlled in turn by the Portuguese, Dutch, French and English. Its capture by the British in 1782 paved the way for Britain’s colonization of the entire island after the usurpation of the Kandyan Kingdom in the Central Highlands in 1815. With deception and manipulation, the British conquered the land and built a class of native collaborators; native lords, commoners and Buddhist monks who rebelled were convicted of treason and banished, imprisoned or killed.

British colonial authority and associated capitalist development resulted in a fundamental political, economic and social transformation of the island. The authoritarian and coercive policies used to maintain law and order, land expropriation for plantations, harsh taxation of the local population and the import of indentured labor from South India and other measures had long-term detrimental effects on subsistence agriculture, peasant land rights and livelihood, and the island’s demographic distribution, communal harmony and ecological balance.

Although Sri Lanka’s period of “classical colonialism” with direct political control by Britain ended with its independence in 1948, the socioeconomic and cultural forces set in place during the colonial period have continued to dominate the island’s development, particularly in terms of economic growth and social class and ethno-religious politics. Neocolonialism – a term introduced by Kwame Nkrumah, the first president of independent Ghana, in the early 1960s – describes a post-colonial state that is “in theory independent and has all the outward trappings of international sovereignty,” but “in reality, its economic system and thus its political policy is directed from outside.” The concepts of neocolonialism and non-alignment in foreign policy that Nkrumah and other leaders of ex-colonial states championed in the 1950s and 1960s still have great relevance for Sri Lanka today.

Sri Lanka is at a decisive historical juncture, facing new forms of geopolitical rivalry and external military, political and economic as well as cultural intervention, primarily involving overt and covert expansionist efforts of the US, China and India. The small, beleaguered country is struggling to safeguard its sovereignty, its territorial integrity and its very ecological survival.

Politics is about propaganda, control of narratives and exploiting ignorance and fear. There is therefore a practical need for an understanding of the colonial experience that goes beyond academic interest.

Post-colonial developments

Since independence, Sri Lanka’s political, economic and cultural evolution has centered on a high level of tension between external intervention and local resistance.

In the early years, Sri Lankan governments, like those of many ex-colonial states, introduced policies to nationalize foreign-owned plantations and other private enterprises, to foster local industries and develop local culture and identities. The Constitution of 1972 replaced the island’s colonial name Ceylon with Sri Lanka, declaring the country to be a “free, sovereign, independent and democratic socialist republic.” These designations remain on paper, but many of the nationalist policies backfired, giving rise to massive youth unemployment and violent social class and communal conflicts, specifically the 1971 Jathika Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) Sinhala youth insurrection and Tamil militancy.

In 1977, urged on by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, a newly elected Sri Lankan government introduced an “open economy,” reversing autarkic economic policies, giving free rein to foreign investment and imports, and privatizing hitherto state-owned sectors. This economic “liberalization” and associated dismantling of the welfare state, as well as the constitution adopted a year later, made 1977 a turning point in the modern economic and political history of the island. Still, it was not a radical departure, but rather an acceleration, of the capitalist development that had begun with the colonial plantation economy in the 1830s.

The central concern of the post-1977 period was the armed struggle for separatism by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. In May 2009, the Sri Lankan government defeated the LTTE in what is considered “one of the few instances in modern history in which a terrorist group had been defeated militarily.” Since the end of the armed conflict, both the political and ideological struggle demanding Tamil regional autonomy, as well as geopolitical intervention by external powers in Sri Lanka, have intensified. The convergence of these forces poses serious threats to the island’s peace, security and survival as a united and independent country.

Neocolonialism and geopolitical rivalry

Colonialism involves control of a less powerful country by a more powerful one, to exploit resources and increase the latter’s power and wealth. In essence, neocolonialism involves the same factors as classical colonialism: militarism, external expropriation of natural resources, deception and manipulation, collusion with local elites, incitement of ethnic and religious differences and local resistance to external aggression. Colonized people must recognize the history and methodology of exploitation and power in order to prevent continued manipulation, deception and domination and to protect the sovereignty and resources of their countries.

In the era of classical colonialism, a single external power, Britain, controlled Sri Lanka. Today, several powerful foreign countries, with China on the one side and the US, India, Japan, and others on the other side, are competing for control over the island, which is strategically located in the heart of the Indian Ocean in the ancient East-West maritime trade route. Sea lanes of the Indian Ocean are considered to be the busiest in the world today, with more than 80% of global seaborne oil trade estimated to be passing through the ocean’s chokepoints.

China has incorporated Sri Lanka within its US$4 trillion Belt and Road Initiative spanning the world and considered the “most ambitious infrastructural investment effort in history.” China’s projects in Sri Lanka include the Hambantota Port taken over on a controversial 99-year lease and the massive Colombo International Financial City, built on 269 hectares of land reclaimed from the Indian Ocean.

In challenging China’s increasing military assertiveness in the region, the US is seeking to include Sri Lanka in its own “grand strategy of a united military front between the US and India in the Indo-Pacific.” Concerned that Hambantota Port could become a Chinese military base, India is pursuing control over Sri Lanka’s other strategic seaports, developing the British-colonial-era oil-tank farm in Trincomalee and constructing a container terminal at the port in Colombo (in partnership with Japan), next to a Chinese terminal built as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

While there is antipathy in Sri Lanka toward Chinese and Indian intervention to grab local resources and control of ports and infrastructure, given the US military record, there is a much greater fear of US military intervention and interference in local governance. The United Nations Human Rights Council Resolution of October 1, 2015, co-sponsored by the United States and the former US-backed Sri Lankan government, in the name of peace and reconciliation could turn Sri Lanka into a client state where the US and the “international community” can dictate terms for constitutional reform and internal governance including the security and judicial sectors. In effect, the resolution has echoes of the Proclamation of March 2, 1815 – the Kandyan Convention – signed by the British and a faction of the Kandyan aristocracy that turned Sri Lanka into a British colony.

There is a parallel between the UNHRC Resolution and the proposed Sri Lanka compact with the US Millennium Challenge Corporation, a component of US National Security Strategy linking economic development with defense and diplomacy. They both manipulate the Sri Lankan government to turn against itself, giving up its power and responsibilities over the most vital sectors of the state, the resources of the country and the rights of its people. The MCC Compact seeks to privatize and commoditize state land to make them readily available to investors including foreign corporations. It brings to mind the early stage of capitalist development in Sri Lanka, when the British colonial state introduced legislation, infrastructure and other measures to establish the plantation economy.

Military engagement with Sri Lanka is considered vital to achieving US objectives in the Indo-Pacific region. The Acquisition and Cross Services Agreement (ACSA) provides the basis to set up a US ‘logistic hub’ in Sri Lanka to secure support, supplies and services at sea. If fully implemented, the ACSA would in effect “undermine the Chinese share of geopolitical control in Sri Lanka, by way of military presence in the country.” Similarly, if Sri Lanka signs the proposed Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with the US, it would allow US Army personnel to operate in any part of Sri Lanka, without any restrictions. Sri Lankans fear that the SOFA would make “the whole island … a US-controlled super state operating above the Sri Lankan laws and state….”

The way forward

Nandasena Gotabaya Rajapaksa.jpg

Gotabaya Rajapaksa (image on the right), the former defense secretary who led the armed victory over the LTTE in 2009, was elected president of Sri Lanka on November 16, 2019. His massive victory was a response to growing concern over national security and widespread opposition to external interventions.

The newly elected president and his administration are under pressure both from Sri Lanka’s nationalist forces that brought him into office and from external powers, especially India and the United States, who want to continue pursuing their own geo-strategic and economic interests in Sri Lanka. Local activists are continuing their demands to discard the MCC compact, military agreements and UNHRC Resolution, and also renegotiate better terms for Sri Lanka on the lease of Hambantota Port and environmental regulation of the Chinese Port City. The demands against Indian projects including the oil-tank farm in Trincomalee also persist.

Sri Lankan people recognize that these interventions together would thoroughly subordinate their country and turn the government into a mere shell of a state, leaving the island wide open for economic and military exploitation and a battleground for the geopolitical rivalry over the Indian Ocean.

It is not easy for a small country like Sri Lanka to forge a foreign policy that uses its geo-strategic position to its own advantage. While maintaining cordial relationships with the external powers, the principles of sovereignty, democracy and environmental sustainability must continue to be upheld. In light of the dangers posed by the recent bilateral agreements and the UNHRC Resolution, Sri Lanka has to join with other small countries in Asia and Africa to renew the policy of non-alignment that it championed valiantly during the Cold War.

It is also necessary to call on India to do the same. India, which was itself the victim of two centuries of British colonialism, needs to take on an enlightened leadership role in the region, independent of the China-US geopolitical rivalry. In fact, the term “non-alignment” was coined by Indian prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru during a speech he made in 1954 in Colombo.

Sri Lanka’s National Joint Committee expressed the urgent call for the island’s non-alignment in a June 2019 letter written to the then Sri Lankan prime minister regarding the MCC Agreement:

“[We are] committed to protect and preserve the unity and territorial integrity of our nation. We believe that Sri Lanka should follow a foreign policy of nonalignment. Due to the fact that Sri Lanka is strategically located in the Indian Ocean the country needs to remain nonaligned and refrain from getting involved in the geopolitical confrontation that is developing between America and China, through agreements that would enable these countries to gain a foothold in Sri Lanka.”

Indeed, it is urgent for all countries to uphold the principles of non-alignment and resist the polarization and militarization tearing the world apart. These principles – sovereignty and territorial integrity of states; independence from great power block influences and rivalries; the struggles against imperialism, colonialism and neocolonialism, foreign occupation and domination; disarmament; non-interference into the internal affairs of states; rejection of the use or threat of use of force in international relations; the restructuring of the international economic system; international cooperation on an equal footing – are more urgently needed than ever.

Sri Lanka’s historical trajectory – geopolitical rivalry, external aggression and internal resistance to that aggression – continues with great vigor in this current complex period. The tremendous suffering and destruction caused by this narrative calls for a shift in human relations from domination to partnership, from the exploitative and violent path of colonialism and neocolonialism to one of peace, justice and ecology. This is the transformational challenge facing both Sri Lanka and the world at this decisive time.

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Asoka Bandarage PhD is the author of Sustainability and Well-Being, The Separatist Conflict in Sri Lanka, Women, Population and Global Crisis, Colonialism in Sri Lanka and many other publications. She serves on the boards of the Interfaith Moral Action on Climate and Critical Asian Studies and has taught at Yale, Brandeis, Mount Holyoke, Georgetown, American and other universities.

Featured image is from Wikimedia Commons

Over the past two weeks of coronavirus headlines and heightened global anxiety, along with impeachment coverage and after over the Super Bowl weekend Americans huddled in living rooms in blissful oblivion, a story which in more normal times would be front and center has gone largely unnoticed. To be sure, the Pentagon couldn’t be happier that this bombshell has taken a back burner in global headlines

The Pentagon made $35 trillion in accounting adjustments last year alone — a total that’s larger than the entire U.S. economy and underscores the Defense Department’s continuing difficulty in balancing its books.

The latest estimate is up from $30.7 trillion in 2018 and $29 trillion in 2017, the first year adjustments were tracked in a concerted way, according to Pentagon figures and a lawmaker who’s pursued the accounting morass.

It sounds more appropriately news out of The Onion or Babylon Bee given this is *Trillions* and not just billions — though that itself would have been remarkable enough. Naturally, the first and only question we should start with is: how is this even possible? 

After all, $35 trillion is about one-and-a-half times the size of the entire US economy. Not to mention that the figure easily dwarfs the GDP of the entire combined nations of the European continent. Consider too that the current actual US budge for defense-related funding is $738 billion.

“Within that $30 trillion is a lot of double, triple, and quadruple counting of the same money as it got moved between accounts,” Todd Harrison, a Pentagon budget expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Bloomberg in a recent report.

But are we really to believe that mere “combined errors, shorthand, and sloppy record-keeping by DoD accountants” — as another analyst was quoted as saying — can explain a $35 Trillion accounting black hole?

According to the DoD, there’s nothing to see here

The Defense Department acknowledged that it failed its first-ever audit in 2018 and then again last year, when it reviewed $2.7 trillion in assets and $2.6 trillion in liabilities. While auditors found no evidence of fraud in the review of finances that Congress required, they flagged a laundry list of problems, including accounting adjustments.

With tax season now fast approaching, it’s not too comforting to know the Pentagon enjoys over half of all discretionary domestic spending for its global war machine in maintenance of our humble Republic Empire.

Bloomberg attempted to get a handle on it further in explaining, “The military services make adjustments, some automatic and some manual, on a monthly and quarterly basis, and those actions are consolidated by the Pentagon’s primary finance and accounting service and submitted to the Treasury.”

“There were 546,433 adjustments in fiscal 2017 and 562,568 in 2018, according to figures provided by Representative Jackie Speier, who asked the Government Accountability Office to investigate,” the report added.

Spokeswoman for the Pentagon’s inspector general, Dwrena Allen, downplayed what to most Americans will sound like the makings of an explosive scandal. “In layman’s terms, this means that the DoD made adjustments to accounting records without having documentation to support the need or amount for the adjustment,” she said.

And for further perspective on the DoD’s “defense” of the beggars belief figure:

“It means money that DoD moved from one part of the budget to another,” Clark explained to Task & Purpose. “So, like in your household budget: It would be like moving money from checking, to savings, to your 401K, to your credit card, and then back.”

However, $35 trillion is close to 50-times the size of the Pentagon’s 2019 budget, so that means every dollar the Defense Department received from Congress was moved up to 50 times before it was actually spent, Clark said.

“Trillions” explained away by a little benign neglect of simple documentation?

Of course, in the real world outside the halls of government and of largely unchecked power, a mere single trillion would be enough send people to jail. Here we’re talking $30+ trillion and it appears this gaping accounting black hole bigger that most of the world’s past and future economies will itself be memory holed and explained away as being but the minor errors of some DoD pencil-pushers, apparently.

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The disintegration of Iowa’s Democratic caucus before the nation’s disbelieving eyes could not be a better metaphor for what some are calling the Evolutionary Shift of the Ages. In a nutshell, a shift in the nature of reality is underway with the dissolution of obsolete institutions that no longer serve a public purpose  as well as a fundamental change in many of our own values and perceptions.    

Given that we are living in a time of extremes, there may be little comfort to consider that the current turmoil and political chaos are not random, disconnected events but part of a larger agenda meant to take humanity to a new level of consciousness that values peace, love, justice and compassion.   Another way to put it is that the old reality of war, disease and poverty are holding on with all the strength it has left against the new reality of Universal awareness.

With a rarefied air of expectation, it is as if Mother Nature is holding her breath, contemplating humanity’s reaction to abandoning an unsustainable world, while a new energetic vibration is pulsing through the planet that war and conflict are obsolete, unacceptable options.

If there was any further need to observe the collapse of American politics, there it was in Iowa in full view, all in its raw, unabashed experience and even for those who  prefer a good football game, it is undeniable that the signs of the US as a dysfunctional country are everywhere,  There is no acknowledgment within the corporate media that these shifts are occurring.

Only the Shadow Knows

Meanwhile, back in Iowa, there was a ‘coding’ error with Shadow Inc., a contract app hired to track caucus results, which failed spectacularly after it screwed up tracking tests just days prior to the caucus. Inexplicably, with only 62% of the vote for the first two days (upgraded to 97%), there is no declared winner with Bernie and Buttigieg in an alleged virtual tie.  There may be no need for the DNC, already discredited in its own right, to step in and save the day as if they have better credibility than Shadow, Inc.  Bernie was probably not expecting his campaign to be undermined so soon except the old reality needed to act quickly and forcefully to control the final outcome before all authority was lost.

According to the NY Times, the Shadow app has a shadowy history. Who would have guessed?  There are conflicting stories that it was developed in a rush two months ago or that a Democratic digital non profit firm ACRONYM ‘launched’ Shadow in 2019.  With ties to HRC’s campaign, ACRONYM, says it is only an investor in Shadow  To further muddy the waters, according to FEC records, Pete Buttigieg donated $42,500 to Shadow prior to the caucus – for what exact purpose remains in the shadows.   With a name like Shadow Inc. there is not much left to the imagination.   

National politics has always been a mostly reliable bell weather for how the country feels about itself; whether its ballot choices accurately reflect public discontent or satisfaction – unless there is tampering with the actual votes.

Buttigieg

In April, 2019, I wrote an article on the growing curiosity about who was Mayor Pete of  Indiana and how, for someone with no national following or identity,  was he able to easily rack up an impressive number of first-class media interviews in a short amount of time.   It was obvious from the Get Go that Buttigieg was not your average candidate struggling for recognition, operating on a nickel and dime budget or seeking a campaign network.  He obviously came into the race with big time connections to money and tv – online media   That article is here since those gnawing questions are more pertinent than ever.

Michael Bloomberg

In a recent change, the DNC granted special dispensation of their donor requirement rule to bazillionaire former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg.  That is the same rule used to keep Tulsi Gabbard and Mike Gravel off the debate stage since June.  But that’s all in the past now as the new rule opens up the February 19th debate to allow Bloomberg participation since he is polling at 0% and has no donors.

According to the FEC, Bloomberg made three payments of $106 M to three individual DNC accounts including a $800,000 donation to the Democratic Grassroots Victory Fund, a massive influx of money on the same day,  November 19, 2019.  Two days later, Bloomberg filed his Statement of Candidacy for President.   As Bloomberg begins to collect early endorsements, it will be the partisan reactions to his earlier Presidential endorsements that may bring the kind of doom and gloom that no amount of money can assuage including GW Bush, John McCain and  Rudy Giuliani along with his voter registration flip-flops over the years as necessitated by his own political survival. 

Tulsi

With Tulsi inexcusably denied a place on the CNN stage in NH and still in the race, presumably she will be on the stage with Bloomberg on February 19th unless the DNC finagles to keep her off – if that isn’t incentive for Tulsi to stay in the race, I don’t know what is.

It could not be more obvious that the rules were always about; a not-so-skillfully crafted mechanism to deny Tulsi and Gravel a platform or a voice as twenty other Dems with a lack of substance or style were expecting a safe kumbayah moment.  Instead, it was more than just Gabbard’s non-interventionist foreign policy views that plagued her candidacy as much as it was Tulsi’s no-nonsense approach, her authenticity that would not allow her to participate in a so-called debate as if it were a real debate.  Her participation was such a profound challenge to the DNC minions, with all the bantering back and forth, as she consistently displayed the character and personal ethic we should expect of every presidential candidate. 

Given the convergence of global cycles with a transition of cosmic significance which defies a black-white material world explanation, the adage that quantity is no guarantee of quality has applied to the Dem Presidential field in spades

It has been Gabbard alone, emerging with a shifting partisan political consciousness, struggling against the wind, to be heard in the face of yesterday’s relics, old solutions, old models that no longer function in today’s world.   It is a bitter, hard truth that sweeping transformation comes only after dissolution of antiquated patterns and political corruption to create a world model of localized sustainable systems.   

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Renee Parsons  has been a member of the ACLU’s Florida State Board of Directors and President of the ACLU Treasure Coast Chapter.   She has been an elected public official in Colorado, an environmental lobbyist with Friends of the Earth and staff member in the US House of Representatives in Washington, DC. Renee is also a student of the Quantum Field and can be reached at #reneedove31. 

Tensions between Damascus and Ankara have never been higher over the past nine years. Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan threatened on February 5, to declare war on Syria if the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) does not withdraw from the territory liberated from terrorists in Idlib province. 

“The attack on our soldiers the day before yesterday was a turning point in Syria for Turkey,” he said, referring to seven Turkish soldiers killed on February 4. Four Turkish military convoys were trying to establish a new control point in Jobas but retreated after the Syrian forces captured the town and attacked them.

On February 6, the SAA attacked a terrorist position in the suburbs of Saraqeb, and the Turkish military defended the terrorist position through the use of heavy artillery; however, this clash between SAA and Turkish forces resulted in the SAA advancing into Saraqeb.

Erdogan and Turkish position

 “We hope that the process of the regime pulling back behind our observation posts is completed in the month of February,” Erdogan told members of his AK Party. “If the regime does not pull back during this time, Turkey will have to do this job itself. We are determined to continue our operations to ensure the safety of our country, our nation and our brothers in Idlib,” he warned while adding the Turkish military would carry out air and ground operations in Idlib, when necessary.

A source in the Syrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates told the Syrian Arab News Agency on February 5, that Erdogan lied when he claimed that his troops entered northern Aleppo as a part of the 1998 Adana agreement.

“Syria stresses that the Adana agreement requires coordination with the Syrian government as it is an agreement between two countries, therefore Erdogan, according to the requirements of the agreement, cannot act separately,” the source said, adding “the Adana agreement to ensure border security between the two countries is indeed aimed at combating terrorism, but what Erdogan is doing is protecting his tools, the terrorist groups, which he provided and still has with various forms of support.”

On February 4, three Turkish convoys entered Syrian territories from Kafr Lusain crossing, bringing the number of vehicles brought in from February 2 to 400. Five other convoys have entered since then and headed to Idlib and Aleppo. Turkish forces, which invaded Idlib in 2017, have repeatedly tried to prevent the Syrian forces from recovering Syrian territory.

Russian position

The Russian Defense Ministry stated that the Turkish troops were hit because of their failure to communicate with the Russian military, as per agreement.

The Russian Reconciliation Center for Syria has called upon armed groups to abandon terrorism and seek a peaceful settlement, which Russia can guarantee by laying down their arms.

President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone with Erdogan after the Turkish soldiers were killed, along with one civilian contractor.  Erdogan stressed that Turkey would continue to use its right of self-defense against similar attacks, according to a statement by the Turkish Communications Directorate.

Putin and Erdogan have a relationship based on shared interests in energy, economics, and security. Neither of them will likely allow Idlib to destroy their ties, even though their interests in Syria diverge.  Russia is the deal-maker in Syria, and we saw Putin in shuttle diplomacy flying to Damascus last month, and then he flew on to Istanbul.

US position

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo condemned the attack by Syria on the Turkish soldiers. He declared the US “fully supports Turkey’s justified self-defense actions.“ Pompeo said the assault on al-Qaeda held Idlib is ‘unjustifiable’, and supports the Turkish position of keeping Saraqeb in the terrorist’s hands.

Pompeo further said that the US considers Syria’s attempt to take towns from al-Qaeda ‘unjustifiable and ruthless assaults.’ This is in keeping with US policy in Syria to support Radical Islamic terrorist groups enough that they can continue to attack the Syrian government forces.  From the first day of the Syrian conflict, ‘regime change’ has been the only US foreign policy.

The Facebook page of the US Embassy in Damascus, an institution no longer existing in Syria, posted a statement by Pompeo and changed its cover image to “IDLIB”.

Who is in control of Idlib today?

Saraqeb, and the rest of Idlib province which has not been liberated, is a well-known stronghold of al-Qaeda-linked groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP).  These groups are Turkish supported jihadists, and although HTS is a new name, it was formerly Jibhat al Nusra, which was the Al Qaeda affiliate in Syria. TIP is sponsored by Erdogan personally, and are the Chinese Uyghurs who he imported from China specifically to create an Islamic state in Syria.

The United Nations estimates that as many as 3 million civilians may be trapped in the area ruled by jihadists, who have oppressed the civilians who have no recourse but to try and survive under Radical Islam, which is not a religion or a sect, but a political ideology.

The Syrian Arab Army advances

The SAA has made consistent advances in Idlib province, and this has caused Turkey and the US to panic.  The SAA has taken village after village, and now stand poised to clear the highway linking Latakia to Aleppo (M4), as well as the highway linking Aleppo to Damascus (M5).  Ground troops and airstrikes have been utilized to achieve its goal to liberate all Syrian territories, and are 8 kilometers away from the city of Idlib.

The underwater pipeline attacked

In June 2019, sabotage attacks damaged five underwater pipelines off the Mediterranean coastal town of Banias, south of Latakia.  On February 3, explosives damaged the underwater pipelines once again, which are used to pump oil into one of Syria’s two petroleum refineries. No group has claimed responsibility, which leads experts to assume this was a state-sponsored attack and not a terrorist group.  Syria’s oil minister, Ali Ghanem, said that divers planted the underwater charges in the pipeline which sits 3 kilometers off-shore and at a depth of 23 meters undersea.  “The aim of the attack is to cease (oil) imports into Syria,” said Ghanem.

Underwater divers, using sophisticated underwater charges, and in such depths lend credence to the assumption of a well trained sophisticated team from a foreign country.  These are the very pipelines used to pump in the oil from the Iranian ship that had been detained by the UK at the best of the US last summer.

The Homs oil and gas facilities attacked, again

Drones were used in a sophisticated and synchronized attack on three Syrian oil and gas facilities on February 4, which hit the Al-Rayyan Natural Gas Station, the Ebla Gas Laboratory, and the Homs Refinery. Once again, these attacks have not been claimed by any group. Firefighters battled blazes caused by the explosions triggered by the drones attack.  All three facilities are in central Homs province. Syrian civilians have been suffering from lack of gasoline, cooking gas, heating oil, and electricity, all of which are caused by US-EU sanctions which prevent Syria from importing petroleum and gas products.  The US and UK have seized an Iranian tanker at sea who might deliver fuel to the Syrian civilians. This US-UK policy has been designed to make the civilians suffer, which has resulted in Syrians leaving as economic migrants, which Germany has been tasked to support.

The city of Homs and the surrounding areas have been under control of the Syrian government since 2017, and there are no terrorist groups present. Besides underwater diving specialists and underwater explosive specialists, there are also expensive and sophisticated drones in use, apparently by foreign countries seeking to increase the suffering and deprivations of the Syrian civilians.

Before 2011, Syria exported around half of the 350,000 barrels of oil is produced per day; however, production now has plummeted to around 24,000 barrels a day, which is a fraction of domestic needs. Thusly, there exists a vital need to import petroleum and gas products.  The largest oil field is now in the hands of the US Army, and President Trump is openly proud of stealing the Syrian oil.

Last month, near-simultaneous attacks carried out by drones hit three oil and gas installations in central Syria, while in December the attacks targeted the oil refinery in Homs.

The end game 

The liberation of Idlib province approaches and the proxy war will likely be settled in backroom negotiations, and not on the battlefield.

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This article was originally published on Mideast Discourse.

Steven Sahiounie is a political commentator.

Featured image is from Mideast Discourse

Canada, Palestine and the ‘Deal of the Century’: Four Statements

February 7th, 2020 by Canada Palestine Association

Reject Trump’s Plan: Exist, Resist, Return

by Canada Palestine Association

The Trump Administration has just unveiled the details of its “Deal Of The Century.” This plan includes, but is not limited to:

  • Giving legitimacy to illegal Israeli settlements in Palestine.
  • Annexing parts of the West Bank (including the Jordan Valley).
  • Granting Palestinians a “state” made up of non-contiguous cantons similar to the Bantustans under apartheid in South Africa.
  • Liquidating the Palestinian right of return.

These are just some of the aspects from this plan that has already been rejected by the Palestinian people and its leadership at large.

The road to Palestinian freedom lays first and foremost in addressing Israel’s regime of settler-colonialism, occupation and apartheid, in Israel dismantling its illegal settlements as well as recognition of the right for return.

Only consistent pressure on Israel, including through support for the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement, can bring about lasting and meaningful change for both Israelis and Palestinians.

Canada Palestine Association is an activist organization that has been doing Palestine solidarity work in BC for over 37 years.

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Canadian Jews Stand With Palestinians in Rejecting Trump’s “Peace” Plan

by Independent Jewish Voices

On January 28, 2020, US President Donald Trump unveiled his “peace” plan for Israel-Palestine alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Notably absent alongside these two embattled leaders, fighting to hang on to their damaged political careers, was any of the Palestinian leadership. This is simply because the disastrous plan that Trump has touted as the “Deal of the Century” is being seen by much of the world for what it really represents – the “Steal of the Century.” Trump’s new plan is a significant shift from previous American foreign policy in the region, and a slap in the face of international law.

Independent Jewish Voices Canada condemns this ill-fated plan in no uncertain terms. We stand with the Palestinian people who are taking to the streets in the thousands, both in Palestine and throughout the world, to denounce what many have called Trump’s “apartheid plan.” Moreover, we call on the Canadian government and Foreign Minister François-Philippe Champagne to unequivocally denounce this plan, and instead to remind Trump, Netanyahu, and the international community of their responsibilities to follow the principles of international law and justice.

There has never been a better time for BDS

While the Trump plan could represent a disastrous turn for any chance of peace and justice in Israel-Palestine, for us it means staying the course, digging in our heels, and continuing the work we’re already doing.

Independent Jewish Voices (IJV) was the first national Jewish organization in Canada to endorse the Palestinian campaign of boycotts, divestments, and sanctions (BDS). Trump’s plan is a stark reminder of the importance of BDS at this critical juncture.

It is worth recalling the main demands of the BDS campaign, and how they relate to Trump’s apartheid plan:

1. Ending the Israeli occupation and colonization of all Arab lands and dismantling the wall

Trump’s plan proposes that Israeli settlement blocs inside the occupied West Bank remain under Israeli control; that Jerusalem be Israel’s “undivided” capital; and that some form of a Palestinian state also be created, albeit with limited sovereignty.

The Israeli occupation of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank is the longest military occupation in modern history. Trump’s position to suddenly view the Israeli settlements in the West Bank as legal under international law is a complete reversal of previous American foreign policy, and patently dangerous. The path towards a just peace in the region must include dismantling Israeli settlements, ending the occupation, and tearing down the inhumane wall.

2. Recognizing the fundamental rights of Arab-Palestinian citizens of Israel to full equality

Trump’s plan suggests stripping nearly 250,000 Palestinian citizens of Israel of their citizenship, and transfering them to a future Palestinian state. The mayor of Tayibe (one such Israeli town slated for a population transfer), Shuaa Massarweh Mansour, stated in no uncertain terms, “There will not be another Nakba” (the Arabic word for ‘catastrophe’, referring to the ethnic cleansing of Palestine during the war of 1948).

Palestinian citizens of Israel already face incredible discrimination in areas related to land rights, cultural and language rights, and education. Rather than stripping them of their citizenship, Palestinian citizens of Israel must be granted full civil and human rights under Israeli law.

3. Respecting, protecting, and promoting the rights of Palestinian refugees to return to their homes and properties as stipulated in UN Resolution 194

Trump’s plan will effectively put an end to one of the central tenets of the Palestinian struggle: the right of return for all Palestinian refugees ethnically cleansed by Israel from 1948 onwards. The plan lays it out in a blunt and cruel fashion: “The Israeli-Palestinian Peace Agreement shall provide for a complete end and release of any and all claims relating to refugee or immigration status. There shall be no right of return by, or absorption of, any Palestinian refugee into the State of Israel.”

We know that there can be no just peace in Israel-Palestine until all refugees are allowed the right to return home. •

Independent Jewish Voices Canada (IJV) invites all people of good conscience to join us in BDS actions, and resisting this plan with all our hearts and energies.

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Trump’s Farcical Mideast Deal Ignores International Law

by Canadians for Justice and Peace in the Middle East

Canadians for Justice and Peace in the Middle East (CJPME) is highly critical of the Mideast Peace Plan announced by US President Donald Trump today – one that CJPME considers preposterous. The plan was done without the participation of the Palestinians, and ignores both international law and international precedent on the conflict. The Plan further entrenches pro-Israel decrees that Trump has made in recent years, including that Jerusalem will be Israel’s “undivided” capital and that Israel will be able to annex major illegal Israeli colonies in the occupied West Bank. Given that the Plan virtually ignores Palestinian interests, CJPME considers it useless in terms of resolving decades of violent conflict.

“The Plan announced today has nothing to do with the Palestinians,” announced Thomas Woodley, president of CJPME. “The Plan is a bogus ‘deal’ between the US and Israel, and makes no serious effort to accommodate any of the legitimate grievances of the Palestinians.” CJPME points out, for example, that Israel’s colonies (a.k.a. “settlements”) have been repeatedly denounced by the international community as being illegal. The 2004 International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling on the conflict concluded that Israel’s colonies violate the Fourth Geneva Convention. By allowing Israel to annex these colonies with no penalty or swap simply rewards Israel for its decades violating international law. With this new Plan, Israel has no incentive to discontinue its practice colonizing the Palestinian land that it occupies militarily.

This latest Plan cements CJPME’s belief that the US can no longer masquerade as an “honest broker” between Israel and the Palestinians. CJPME points out that the Trump administration has sought to undermine the Palestinian negotiating position for years. In September, 2018, Trump closed the Palestinian embassy in Washington. That same month, the Trump administration announced it would end all humanitarian funding the Palestinian refugees. In November, Trump’s Secretary of State Pompeo announced that Washington no longer regarded Israeli settlements on occupied West Bank land as inconsistent with international law. That Trump and Netanyahu would dare to announce a “Peace Plan” absent negotiations with the Palestinians is a farce.

CJPME calls other bodies or players to assert a role for themselves in the negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians. “If we allow Trump to continue with this sham, it sends a message to other rogue leaders and countries that international law is meaningless, and that ‘friendship’ with the US is the only bargaining chip of value,” concluded Woodley. CJPME does not consider Canada eligible to be a broker between Israel and the Palestinians, as Canada has largely aped the US’ pro-Israel Mideast policy in recent years. CJPME could envision the UN, the European Union, or other groups of countries (including perhaps China and/or Russia) asserting themselves into the negotiations process.

Canadians for Justice and Peace in the Middle East (CJPME) is a non-profit and secular organization bringing together men and women of all backgrounds who labour to see justice and peace take root again in the Middle East. Its mission is to empower decision-makers to view all sides with fairness and to promote the equitable and sustainable development of the region.

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Global Affairs Canada minister promises to “examine the details” of Trump’s “Deal of the Century” – CTIP offers him a 10 point summary

by Canada Talks Israel Palestine

Canada’s new Foreign Affairs Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne made a very cautious statement about Trump’s “Deal of the Century.” He avoided referring to it as a “peace” plan, or to its claim that the deal would create a Palestinian State. He said he would “examine the details.” For the minister’s benefit, CTIP offers a quick summary of the plan.

“Canada recognizes the urgent need to renew efforts toward a negotiated solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and will carefully examine the details of the US initiative for the Middle East peace process,” wrote Canada’s Foreign Affairs Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne in a carefully written press release.

The Minister’s statement implies that his department has not yet studied or formed an opinion on Trump’s 181 page “Deal” (official title: “Peace to Prosperity: A vision to improve the lives of the Palestinian and Israeli people”) which has been angrily denounced by all Palestinian parties, and many human rights organizations. The list of critics even includes some liberal Jewish ones. Not surprisingly, it has been praised by all of Israel’s political leaders and by the Jewish establishment in Canada like CIJA and Bnai Brith.

For the Minister – CTIP offers a 10 point summary of the “Deal”

To help Minister Champagne make up his mind on the substance of the “Deal,” CTIP offers this quick summary of some of its key elements. Notwithstanding its official claim to be a “peace plan” it does not take much examination to see that its proposals amount to a complete victory for Israel, and a complete capitulation for the Palestinians. It is a plan of conquest – not peace – and not one that any Palestinian leader could accept.

Here are ten of its main provisions:

  1. Expansion of Israel’s Borders: Israel’s borders will now extend to the Jordan river. In the process, Israel will gain another 20% of the West Bank. It will give up some mostly uninhabited desert land in the Negev near the Gaza-Egypt border. Israel will retain sovereignty over territorial waters, which means not only that it will control access to Gaza, but also the subsea resources (chiefly natural gas) off the Mediterranean coast.
  2. Exclusive Israeli control over Jerusalem: Palestinians will have to accept that all of Jerusalem (“undivided”) is Israel’s Capital and under Israeli control, including the Old City. Palestinians will be allowed to keep some land on the periphery of East Jerusalem and call it their “capital.” (In Canadian terms, “we will take Ottawa as our capital and you can have Barrhaven.”)
  3. Settlements: Israel will annex the Jordan Valley and claim sovereignty over 100 Israeli settlements in the West Bank. This includes 15 isolated settlements, which will be enclaves within an eventual Palestinian state. The Israeli military will have access to these isolated settlements.
  4. Israeli military control: Israel will be in control of security from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea. The IDF will be able to go anywhere in the West Bank and Gaza.
  5. Right of return denied for almost all refugees. Over half the Palestinian population are refugees – between 5 and 7 million people. They are the descendants of non Jews (Muslim and Christian) who were driven out of what became Israel in 1947/48. But according to the plan only a small number of Palestinian refugees and their descendants will be allowed into the new Palestinian “state.” None will have the right to enter Israel. The rest will have to give up the idea of return, despite the fact that it is guaranteed in international law.
  6. A Palestinian “quasi” state – “eventually? maybe?” The plan does not include immediate recognition of a Palestinian state; rather, it holds out the prospect of a future Palestinian “State” – eventually, and under certain conditions. But this state is unlike any other state in the world. It will be a strange collection of separate “areas” cut off from each other by Israeli only roads, and pockmarked by Israeli settlements which will be Israeli territory. The Palestinian state would have no territorial contiguity, and the parts of the West Bank will be connected via 12 tunnels or bridges. Israel will maintain control of all its borders. The West Bank and Gaza Strip will be connected by a 20 km tunnel.
  7. Some Palestinian Israelis could lose Israeli citizenship: The plan leaves open the possibility that Israel will redraw its borders to exclude several large Palestinian towns now on Israel’s borders. By including them in the future Palestinian “state,” Israel would reduce the number of non Jews in Israel by several hundred thousand.
  8. An end to resistance: Trump also called for the disarmament of Palestinian political factions like Hamas and Islamic Jihad, and “firm rejection of terrorism” as a requirement for Palestinian statehood. Palestinians would give up their right to defend their homes and schools from attacks by settlers, for example. The plan also demands that the Palestinians drop their request that the International Criminal Court investigate Israel for “crimes against humanity.”
  9. Recognition of Israel as a Jewish State: Palestinians would be required to recognize Israel as the Jewish State, and accept that the Israeli border will be along the Jordan valley. Israeli citizens who are not Jewish (i.e. Palestinian citizens of Israel who number 1.5 million) will have to accept permanently their situation as second class citizens with fewer rights than those of Jewish Israeli citizens.
  10. Promises of new investment and job creation: The plan holds out the lure of 50 billion dollars in investments over 10 years. “Over the next 10 years, 1 million great new Palestinian jobs will be created,” Trump promised, adding that the poverty rate will be cut in half, and the Palestinian GDP will “double and triple.” He did not say who would pony up the money, however. The implication seems to be that it would come from other Arab states, though none offered to do so.

Notwithstanding its official claim to be a “peace plan” it does not take much examination to see that its proposals amount to a complete victory for Israel, and a complete capitulation for the Palestinians. It is a plan of conquest – not peace – and not one that any Palestinian leader could accept. It would be very difficult to find ANY Palestinian, or human rights advocate who would think that this is “fair” or a “peace deal.”

What will Canada’s Assessment of the Plan Be?

Will Minister Champagne dare to criticize (or make any comment) on the Trump plan after he “examines the details”?

In addition to asking Palestinian Canadians, international lawyers, UN experts like Professor Michael Lynk who is the UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in the Occupied Territories, who called the plan “lopsided,” he might want to check with a non Zionist Jewish organization like Independent Jewish Voices Canada, or even a liberal Zionist organization like Canadian Friends of Peace Now (CFPN).

CFPN was scathing in its assessment, calling the plan the “sham of the century.” CFPN said the plan is“guaranteed to exacerbate rather than resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The plan pays lip-service to a two-state solution, but, at the same time, green lights immediate Israeli annexation of the entire Jordan Valley and the extension of Israeli sovereignty to settlements in the West Bank.” The group characterized the plan with terms such as dangerous, “one-sided” and “double speak.”

CTIP does not agree with Zionism of course and we often disagree with CFPN. But on this point, CTIP feels obliged to agree.

Canada Talks Israel Palestine (CTIP) is the weekly newsletter of Peter Larson, Chair of the Ottawa Forum on Israel/Palestine (OFIP). It aims to promote a serious discussion in Canada about the complicated and emotional Israel/Palestine issue.

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Later this month, India’s Supreme Court will hold a lengthy hearing on the commercialisation of genetically modified (GM) mustard, which would be the country’s first GM food crop. The court has asked the chair of the Technical Expert Committee to be present and says that the decision on GM mustard cannot be kept pending. The TEC has come out against using genetically modified organisms (GMOs) in Indian agriculture.

As lead petitioner in a public interest litigation  challenging the government-backed push to commercialise this crop, Aruna Rodrigues has over the past few years submitted much evidence to the court alleging the science and field tests for GM mustard have been fraudulent and the entire regulatory regime has been dogged by malfeasance and a dereliction of duty.

To date, cotton is the only officially sanctioned GM crop in India. Those pushing for GM food crops (including the government) are forwarding the narrative that GM pest resistant Bt cotton has been a tremendous success which should now be emulated with the introduction of GM mustard. Ever since its commercialisation in 2002, however, the issue of Bt cotton in India has been a hotly contested issue. Bt cotton hybrids now cover over 95% of the area under cotton and the seeds are produced by the private sector. But critics argue that Bt cotton has negatively impacted livelihoods and fuelled agrarian distress and farmer suicides.

In a recent piece appearing in ‘The Hindu’, Imran Siddiqi, an emeritus scientist at the Centre for Cellular and Molecular Biology in Hyderabad, argued that India’s cotton yields fall behind those of other major cotton producing countries. He attributes this to the decision to use hybrids seeds made by crossing two parent strains having different genetic characters. These plants have more biomass than both parents and capacity for greater yields. But they also require more inputs, including fertiliser and water, and require suboptimal planting (more space). Siddiqi notes that all other cotton-producing countries grow cotton not as hybrids but varieties for which seeds are produced by self-fertilisation.

A key difference is that varieties can be propagated over successive generations by collecting seeds from one planting and using them for the next. For hybrids, farmers must purchase seed for each planting. Using hybrids gives pricing control to the seed company and also ensures a continuous market.

Siddiqi says that the advantages of varieties are considerable: more than twice the productivity, half the fertiliser, reduced water requirement and less vulnerability to damage from insect pests due to a shorter field duration. He concludes that agricultural distress is extremely high among cotton farmers and the combination of high input and high risk has likely been a contributing factor.

Meanwhile, seed companies and Monsanto that issued licenses for its Bt technology have profited handsomely from an irresponsible roll-out to poor marginal farmers who lacked access to irrigation and the money to purchase necessary fertiliser and pesticides. Bt hybrids perform better under irrigation, but 66% of cotton in India is cultivated in rain fed areas, where yields depend on the timing and quantity of variable monsoon rains. Unreliable rains, the high costs of Bt hybrid seed, continued insecticide use, fertiliser inputs and debt have placed many poor smallholder farmers in a situation of severe financial hardship.  Prof A P Gutierrez argues that Bt cotton has effectively put these farmers in a corporate noose.

Cultivating knowledge 

It was against this backdrop that Andrew Flachs conducted fieldwork on cotton cultivation over four consecutive cotton growing seasons during 2012-2016 and a later visit in 2018 in the South Indian state of Telangana. His new book ‘Cultivating Knowledge: Biotechnology, Sustainability and the Human Cost of Cotton Capitalism in India’ (University of Arizona Press 2019) is based on that research.

A trained environmental anthropologist and assistant professor at Purdue University in the US, Flachs draws on anthropology and political ecology to show how the adoption of GM seeds affects livelihoods, values and identities in rural areas. By looking at everyday relationships and how farmers make choices, Flachs avoids falling into the pro/anti-GMO dichotomy that has polarised the debate on Indian cotton for the past 18 years. Instead, he looks at farmers’ aspirations, what it means to ‘live well’ and what ‘sustainability’ means in the everyday world of cotton cultivators.

Although some critics of GM cotton claim that the technology is directly responsible for fuelling suicides and farmer distress, Flachs is careful to locate the narrative of agrarian crisis against the overall backdrop of neoliberal reforms in Indian agriculture, the withdrawal of public sector extension services and exposure to commercial seed, pesticide and unstable global commodity markets (and spiralling input costs). 

In an increasingly commercialised countryside, independent cultivators have become dependent on corporate products, including off-farm commodified corporate knowledge. In the past, they cultivated, saved and exchanged seeds; now, as far as cotton cultivation is concerned, they must purchase GM hybrid seeds (and necessary chemical inputs) each year. 

Flachs mentions former Minister of Agriculture Sharad Pawar who once stated that farmers decide to use GM cotton seeds based on rational decision making because GM gives better yields. Indeed, this kind of thinking underpins much of the rhetoric of the pro-GMO lobby. But such decision making is far from the truth (moreover, Prof Glenn Stone has shown how ‘facts’ about yields have been constructed and that these ‘facts’ become mere distortions of the actual reality)

With hundreds of different GM seeds brands available in local seed stores, it becomes clear in ‘Cultivating Knowledge’ that environmental learning and the type of decision making referred to by Pawar do not exist. Confusion, social learning, ‘herding’ and emulation are the norm. Seed choices are not based on rational, cost-benefit decision making whereby farmers plant and compare crop performances and opt for the best ones. Their choices of seeds are based on the advice of (unscrupulous) seed vendors, newspaper reports, advertising and what other farmers are opting for.

Caste and social status play a major role in who is listened to, who is emulated and who is given short shrift by seed vendors. If a (high status) farmer opts for a certain seed, for example, another farmer will emulate. But even the high status farmer is not necessarily basing his seed decision of testing in the field: he too is emulating others, opting for whatever brand is ‘popular’ that season.

Similarly, Flachs notes that if your neighbour sprays pesticides four times a day, you do it five times to be ‘responsible’, to make sure you are taking care of your crop; to make sure you don’t become infested and are then seen as the culprit for allowing your neighbours’ fields to be infested too. This, even though you overuse dangerous chemicals and become contaminated with pesticide spray or your food crop that your kids will eat becomes contaminated.

As Flachs implies – in a runaway neoliberal landscape, these types of risks (the overuse of pesticides, taking out loans, seed preferences) become regarded as ‘natural’, as the outcome of individual choices, rather than the expression of political structures or macro-economic policies. In the brave new world of neoliberalism that India began to embrace in the early 1990s, responses to the ‘invisible’ hand of the market, the performance of questionable on-farm practices and financial distress have therefore been internalised and have become associated with a notion of personal responsibility, which can result in self-blame, shame and even suicide.     

Flachs notes that many cotton farmers also grow food crops. Here, in stark contrast to cotton, farmers still activate their own indigenous knowledge and environmental learning about seeds and cultivation, not least because they tend to still save their (non-corporate) seeds. For now, at least, the predatory commercialisation of the countryside has not yet penetrated every aspect of rural life.      

While Bt cotton farmers are losing their traditional knowledge and skills, Flachs says they still have to make decisions and ‘perform’ the act of farming, taking into account potential risks and what other farmers are doing.

For cultivators of Bt cotton, chasing the dream of a better life means striving for higher yields, even if this entails greater debt and rising input costs. And each year, as fresh seed brands appear, in the hope of hitting a jackpot yield, Flachs indicates that last year’s brand is ditched in favour of a new one. In the meantime, debts increase and maybe one in four seasons a farmer will attain a good enough yield to break even.

In ‘Cultivating Knowledge’, negotiating risk and gambling on seeds, weather and pesticide use are very much part of what has become a chase for ‘better living’ and an integral part of the corporate cotton seed and chemical treadmill. Gambling more or less everything certainly does not bode well for poor, marginalised farmers. And it’s a treadmill that is difficult to get off – even though Bt cotton was sold under the promise of reduced pesticide use, levels of usage are now higher that than before Bt cotton was introduced but non-GM seeds have all but disappeared from seed shops.

Whether farmer’s lives have improved because of the GM technology – or to be precise, the way it has been rolled out – is open to debate, especially if we consider what Gutierrez says about the corporate noose around farmers’ necks and also consider alternative possibilities (for instance, GM straight line varieties), which could have been pursued. Moreover, as Flachs notes, with a glut of cotton, does the world need more of it anyway? Perhaps farmers – aside from adopting different routes for cotton cultivation – would have been better served by planting food crops. These are the ‘counterfactuals’ that seem to be overlooked when discussing GM cotton in India.

Cotton cultivation (including organic cotton growing which Flachs also discusses) in India is very much a social performance. Flachs indicates that the field is a stage where notions of community obligation and personal aspiration are played out within the context of heavily socially stratified communities.

Key to this performance is the concept of sustainability. Both sides of the GM debate talk a good deal about sustainable agriculture. But Flachs discusses what sustainability means to farmers. Is it about a quest for higher yields above all else? Or is it about debt-free sustainable livelihoods and ecological care of the land. In the chase for yields – set against rising input costs, debt, the threat of bankruptcy and suicide, a free-for-all GM seed market with often unscrupulous vendors, the increasing use of dangerous pesticides –  what are the impacts on farmers’ quality of lives?

Is the outcome ‘better living’ for farmers and their families? Or does an air of desperation or insecurity prevail within cotton cultivating communities? These are the questions that readers will be compelled to ask themselves while reading ‘Cultivating Knowledge’. And it will become clear just what the human cost of cotton capitalism for many Indian farmers really is.

When people talk about rolling out GM food crops to uplift the conditions of farmers and make farming more ‘sustainable’, they should abandon such generalisations and consider how farmers and farming communities face up to the challenges of increasing pest resistance, dependency on unregulated seed markets, the eradication of environmental learning, a lack of extension services and the loss of control over their productive means. 

As Andrew Flachs says:

“Given that intimate local ecological knowledge has been shown to be crucial for sustainable endeavors, the GM seed market erodes rather than builds local efforts at sustainability…  These seeds make cotton farming less sustainable on Telangana cotton farms because they have created a system in which farmers can’t learn much about their seeds or apply that knowledge when they’re at the market buying seeds next year.”

For Flachs, organic cotton production (that also has its own set of issues to deal with), which provides safety nets and encourages ecologically and socioeconomically beneficial practices on farms, can help redefine what ‘success’ means in Indian cotton. While this may not in itself address the structural nature of the agrarian crisis, Flachs concludes that it offers some hope for incentivising local knowledge and technology that allows farmers to live well – and most importantly, to live well on their own terms.  

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Colin Todhunter is a frequent contributor to Global Research and Asia-Pacific Research.

US president Donald Trump‘s approval ratings, at 49%, are now at their highest ever level since his assumption to office three years ago (1). Trump is a heavy favourite to be re-elected in November, a likelihood which the ever-growing number of Western bookmakers unanimously agree upon, with Bernie Sanders a somewhat distant second favourite.

It should be clear to anyone by now, that the Western media campaign against Trump over the past four years has been an utter and complete fiasco. Trump’s acquittal in the impeachment trial now constitutes another blow to his enemies.

The mass media, often echoing the Democratic Party stance in America, have been focusing on the wrong issues in a self-serving and ill-judged effort to discredit Trump. The attempts in linking him to Moscow have been disingenuous for the most part, routinely overlooking Bill Clinton’s blatant interference in the 1996 Russian presidential elections – Clinton, while dining at the Kremlin on 21 April 1996, actually informed Russia’s electorate they had better vote the right way, that is for Washington’s proxy incumbent Boris Yeltsin, or otherwise there would be “consequences” (2).

Broadly speaking, the press have avoided mentioning the greatest dangers posed by Trump’s presidency: Growing possibility of nuclear war with Russia or China as weapons treaties are abandoned, along with his administration’s contempt for the environment and climate change.

Under Trump, there has been an ongoing rise too in military expenditure (described ironically as “defence spending”) with many hundreds of billions of dollars forked out each year, dwarfing China’s arms expenses in second place, with Russia barely featuring (3). It is quite a defensive operation that the Pentagon has been pursuing with three of its main adversaries, China, Iran and North Korea, almost surrounded by about 500 US military bases.

On its own, China is ringed by at least 400 of these bases stretching from northern Australia, up through the Pacific, across eastern and central Asia (4). This encirclement of China – the largest military build up since the mid-1940s, involving warships, submarines and bombers, etc. – was implemented by president Barack Obama following his announcement in late 2011 of a “pivot” towards Asia.

In the post-1945 years, US global power reached its low point at the end of the George W. Bush presidency in 2009. At that time, even the traditional “backyard” of Latin America was drifting away from US control, through the emergence of left-wing governments and establishment of greater integration between themselves.

Yet over the past decade, left-leaning Latin American administrations have largely disappeared, neither able to resist the temptations of corruption (notably in Brazil), nor were they capable of diversifying their economies away from a heavy dependence on raw materials like oil (Venezuela). Other major South American countries such as Argentina likewise relied on increases in commodity prices, which is a temporary phenomenon that before long declines (5).

Former Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez achieved commendable social advances, before his untimely death in March 2013, but he mistakenly remained reliant upon oil exports, failing to pursue sustainable economic initiatives centred on manufacturing or agriculture – with Venezuela possessing a potentially rich agricultural base.

Chavez’ immediate successor, Nicolas Maduro, has clearly had a central role in the crises engulfing Venezuelan society (6). Living conditions are plummeting in Venezuela and millions of the country’s inhabitants have fled. Venezuela has by now become almost totally dependent on its oil industry, which is an ill recipe, to put it mildly.

The situation has degenerated due to Maduro’s shoddy handling of the economy, and exacerbated further by the White
House sensing blood with implementation of crippling sanctions, worsening self-inflicted wounds.

In Venezuela and elsewhere, Washington’s “soft power” organisations like the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) have been funding elite opposition groups for years. While US interference in Venezuelan affairs has impacted seriously on the country, it has been a contributory factor to the turmoil, rather than the overwhelming cause.

To Maduro’s credit he has managed so far to stabilise his position, and thwart US attempts to oust him, but by ensuring his government’s survival he must address an array of problems plaguing a country which holds the biggest oil reserves in the world – the principal reason why Washington is so intent on ousting Maduro.

Over the past decade in Latin America, right-wing governments have capitalised on the shortcomings of the left, usually with assistance from the Obama and Trump administrations. By now, the right has re-emerged strongly in Latin America, bolstered most recently in November 2019 with the US-backed ousting of Evo Morales in Bolivia; which Trump publicly applauded the following day, describing Morales’ demise as “a significant moment for democracy in the Western Hemisphere”. (7)

Washington has restored much of its former hold over the Western hemisphere, thereby pulling clear of the nadir of post-World War II American power which heralded the end of Bush’s eight year tenure.

Elsewhere, though it is important not to overstate it, China does represent a growing threat to the US financial world order. In the 21st century, Beijing’s creation of associations like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) has been a significant development in international affairs, challenging World War II-era institutions like the World Bank and IMF, both headquartered in Washington.

However, this is partly negated by China’s position on the UN Human Development Index (HDI) table, whereby it sits in 85th spot among the world’s countries, 13 places below Cuba.

The UN HDI provides a penetrating insight into a country’s living conditions, based on life expectancy, per person income and education. Despite some hysterical forecasts, it is unlikely that China will even come close to usurping America’s standing as the “global hegemonic power” in the foreseeable future, leaving the US in a continued unassailable position. (8)

Gross National Income (GNI) statistics reveal that the typical Chinese person earns less than a third of the annual salary by comparison to the average American. Altogether, living standards in China are also below that of Thailand, Colombia and Algeria (9).

Ideological corporate media accounts steeped in neoliberalism warn seriously about China’s imminent arrival as “the world’s biggest economy”, inevitably highlighting Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures to support their arguments, which in the manner used is highly misleading, glossing over a nation’s combined living standards (10).
Meanwhile, the Pentagon is presently constructing even more military bases mostly with China in mind, across far-flung destinations like northern Australia, the Japanese island of Okinawa, the Pacific island of Papua New Guinea, and also Syria. (11)

Further westwards, positioned at the heart of the Middle East is another long-time US foe: oil and gas rich Iran, a country which is encircled by 45 US military bases and around 70,000 American troops – with these bases and infantry located in various Middle East states and oil dictator countries like Bahrain, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which hem Iran in around the Persian Gulf. (12)

The Middle East, swimming in oil and gas, is the most vital region on earth from an imperial strategic viewpoint, as has been recognised by US and British planners dating to World War II.

US government fixation on Iran has little to do with concern for the Iranian populace, and much to do with the fact this nation contains the planet’s fourth largest quantities of oil, along with the second highest levels of gas. The Iranian leadership is quite repressive but the Saudi Arabian dictatorship, a key Western ally, is appreciably worse with a dismal human rights record stretching back decades.

Iran’s people have borne the brunt of US sanctions, at least in part because they had the temerity in 1979 to oust a US/UK puppet dictator, the Western-educated Shah. A fear has persisted among Western elites that Iranian nationalism could spread to neighbouring Iraq and, worse still, Saudi Arabia, though the latter possibility is slim at best. The fact that Iran is outside of US control is a separate reason for the intimidation, including of outright military attack, a severe violation of the UN Charter.

The US-led invasion and occupation of Iraq had disastrous consequences, most worrying from an American viewpoint, closer relations did develop between Iran and a near decimated Iraq – two countries which together contain almost 20% of the world’s known oil reserves. America’s status in the Middle East is weaker as a consequence.

Other reckless and uncalled for actions, like assassinating an influential Iranian general last month, may further erode and undermine the US position along this critical area; but as in almost every region, the American military presence is uncontested, with additional thousands of US troops this year being dispatched to the Middle East.

As with China, its diminutive neighbour North Korea is largely surrounded by US military forces, advanced equipment and bases. In the immediate vicinity of North Korea the country is encompassed by 38 US bases, 15 of which are located in South Korea across the border where almost 30,000 US troops are stationed. Another 23 US Army installations are situated a little further to the east in Japan.

North Korea’s dynastic regime has managed to survive for over 70 years which, it must be said, is an astonishing feat, as this isolated country has consistently been under threat of an American invasion, and is enduring harsh sanctions which affect North Korea’s populace the most.

Since the Korean War (1950-1953) in which the US Air Force almost destroyed North Korea, the closest that the Kim dynasty came to being ousted was quite likely during the summer of 1994, when president Clinton nearly attacked North Korea with F-117 stealth aircraft and cruise missiles – as later attested to by Robert Gallucci, an Assistant Secretary of State during the Clinton years. (13)

With the Pentagon pondering an attack on North Korea in June 1994, US government officials estimated a death toll of up to a million people in the event of an invasion, which was finally deemed too risky and simply not worth it. Had the North Korean autocracy not armed themselves to the teeth as a deterrent, they would have been toppled long ago.
North Korea is positioned in one of the most strategically important parts of east Asia, hence the continued attention from US governments.

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Shane Quinn obtained an honors journalism degree. He is interested in writing primarily on foreign affairs, having been inspired by authors like Noam Chomsky. He is a frequent contributor to Global Research.

Notes

1 Jeffrey M. Jones, “Trump Job Approval at Personal Best 49%”, Gallup, 4 February 2020, https://news.gallup.com/poll/284156/trump-job-approval-personal-best.aspx

2 Mike Eckel, “Putin’s ‘A Solid Man’: Declassified Memos Offer Window Into Yeltsin-Clinton Relationship”, Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, 30 August 2018, https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-s-a-solid-man-declassified-memos-offer-window-into-yeltsin-clinton-relationship/29462317.html

3 Amanda Macias, “Trump signs $738 billion defense bill. Here’s what the Pentagon is poised to get”, CNBC, 20 December 2019, https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:y60JsOuvAxQJ:https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/21/trump-signs-738-billion-defense-bill.html+&cd=16&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=ie

4 Joyce Glasser, “John Pilger’s Documentary is fascinating and disturbing”, Mature Times, 5 December 2016,
https://www.maturetimes.co.uk/joyce-glasser-reviews-the-coming-war-on-china/

5 Noam Chomsky, Amy Goodman, Juan Gonzalez, “Chomsky: Leftist Latin American Governments Have Failed to Build Sustainable Economies”, Democracy Now!, 5 April 2017, https://www.democracynow.org/2017/4/5/chomsky_leftist_latin_american_governments_have

6 C.J. Polychroniou, “Noam Chomsky: Ocasio-Cortez and Other Newcomers Are Rousing the Multitudes”, Global Policy, 31 January 2019, https://www.globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/31/01/2019/noam-chomsky-ocasio-cortez-and-other-newcomers-are-rousing-multitudes

7 Donald Trump, “Statement from President Donald J. Trump Regarding the Resignation of Bolivian President Evo Morales”, The White House, 11 November 2019, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-president-donald-j-trump-regarding-resignation-bolivian-president-evo-morales/

8 Noam Chomsky, Who Rules The World? (Metropolitan Books, Penguin Books Ltd, Hamish Hamilton, 5 May 2016), p. 57

9 Human Development Reports, “Table 1: Human Development Index and its components”, United Nations Development Programme, http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/table-1-human-development-index-and-its-components-1

10 Noah Smith, “Get Used To It America, We’re No Longer No. 1”, Bloomberg, 18 December 2018, https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:z_UxiDoz7YAJ:https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-18/china-as-no-1-economy-to-reap-benefits-that-once-flowed-to-u-s+&cd=12&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=ie

11 Observatory Editor, “Two New US bases in Syria and an 85-year oil plan”, Observatory, 11 December 2019, https://newsobservatory.com/two-new-us-bases-in-syria-and-an-85-year-oil-plan/

12 Robert Fantina, “US Encircles Iran with 45 Bases, But Is Concerned With Iran’s Activities In Syria, American Herald Tribune, 16 January 2018, https://ahtribune.com/world/north-africa-south-west-asia/syria-crisis/2098-us-iran.html

13 Jamie McIntyre, “Washington was on brink of war with North Korea 5 years ago”, CNN, 4 October 1999, http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:OOlUNI9GSNkJ:www.cnn.com/US/9910/04/korea.brink/+&cd=7&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=ie

In Lewis Carroll’s Alice in Wonderland, Alice chases the white rabbit and falls down the well into a world of silliness and nonsense. Not so for our dear Amerika and us working stiffs. The world that we have found ourselves in may be nonsensical, but surely much more than silly!

In fact, all the good and decent working stiffs who make up the overwhelming majority of this nation should be like young Alice in one respect. That being to see through this Military Industrial Empire which is literally enslaving us towards out and out feudalism!

The corporations we have to deal with screw us each and every chance they get. The owners of this economy have deunionized us, part- timed many of us, foreclosed us into becoming their renters, consumerized us with 24/7 shopping, electronically mangled us with those 24/7 gadgets that many of us carry and/or wear like badges of honor, irradiated us with 4G and now 5G dangerous devices to our health… you get my drift?

Sitting there, with my fellow Socialist friend Jay on the phone, as we viewed this newest  Misstate of the Union, perhaps Lewis Carroll was correct. We have landed in place of nonsense, silliness and tragic forbearing. To see this president shoveling out the manure of what his regime has done to ‘Save America and the planet’, while honoring the low base life of someone like Russ Limbaugh, was enough for even a white rabbit or Cheshire cat.

One needs to watch videos of Il Duce, Benito Mussolini, and see where Mr. Trump has copied that demeanor to the point of absurdity. He has become a caricature of himself! Sadly, because of the Two Ring Circus this empire has created and nurtured, many working stiffs follow this Pied Piper right over the cliffs of reason! Why not, when the other ring, the Democrats, are equally full of ****! We have NO democracy as the bought and paid for phony and embedded- in -empire media has been asking us to drink that Kool Aid for generations!

One must go out and get Aaron Glantz’s new book, Homewreckers, to see how this 2 Party/1 Party con job operates. See how both the Bush Jr and Obama administrations just opened up the candy store for men like Steve Mnuchin (current Sec. of Treasury) and the slew of vulture capitalists.

Glantz shows how much of our working stiff tax money went down that rabbit hole to allow these sharks to profit on the misery of millions. The book documents how the invasion of mega corporate landlords has been allowed to prosper under not only Bush Jr and Obama, but on steroids under the Trump gang. Yes dear fellow Amerikans, feudalism is alive and well in this the 21st Century. Meanwhile, the party opposite, the Democrats, continue to do nothing about this pandemic. Why should many of them? Most of their ilk, just like the Republicans, are millionaires, with no worries about paying too high rents to landlords they do NOT even know how to identify.

At the Misstate of the Union last night we saw that row of fruit salad wearing generals sitting there with  stalwart looks on their faces. Reminded me of those generals of the Wehrmacht, the ones who survived Hitler’s purges, and how they kowtowed to their Fuehrer.

It seems everyone from all facets of this government, regardless of which of the two parties is in control, is subservient to the empire. If only the truth could ring out that We have NOT been at war since WW2! Trump then had the audacity to honor our military for being in places they had no right being sent to, and how they are ‘fighting the good fight’ to keep the world safe for all our corporations. He went on to praise our border patrol and how many ‘smugglers’ they captured, while they, like those generals, participated in the detention of little children whisked away from their mothers. As to the ‘ Party in Opposition’ , the Democrats, they do care more about those poor kids. Yet, they have remained silent when Bush Jr, Obama and now Trump’s war machine bombed the **** out of little Middle Eastern children, and even pregnant mothers, in this convoluted ‘ War on Terror’ .

From Alice in Wonderland: “What’s up is down. What’s down is up.”

Nuff Said.

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Philip A Farruggio is a contributing editor for The Greanville Post. He is also frequently posted on Global Research, Nation of Change, World News Trust and Off Guardian sites. He is the son and grandson of Brooklyn NYC longshoremen and a graduate of Brooklyn College, class of 1974. Since the 2000 election debacle Philip has written over 300 columns on the Military Industrial Empire and other facets of life in an upside down America. He is also host of the ‘It’s the Empire… Stupid ‘ radio show, co produced by Chuck Gregory. Philip can be reached at [email protected].

Featured image is a White House photo

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Belarusian President Lukashenko’s dramatic declaration that “the moment of truth has come” for bilateral relations ahead of his meeting with his Russian counterpart on Friday raises all sorts of questions about the future of their ties, though nobody should be surprised by this if they were objectively observing relevant developments over the past half-decade.

Background Briefing

Russia watchers are anxiously awaiting the outcome of Belarusian President Lukashenko’s meeting on Friday with his Russian counterpart after the former dramatically declared earlier this week that “the moment of truth has come” for bilateral relations following his country’s rapidly improving relations with the US simultaneously with its worsening ties with institutional “ally” Russia. The “fellow” CIS, CSTO, and Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) partners have generally enjoyed excellent relations since the dissolution of the USSR, driven to a large degree by Belarus’ economic dependence on Russia’s generous energy subsidies for most of this period and the West’s disgust of the landlocked country for supposedly being “the last dictatorship in Europe” due to its form of “national democracy” centered almost entirely on President Lukashenko.

This state of affairs, which was largely taken for granted by most observers, is quickly changing, however, as a result of two concurrent trends — Belarus’ “balancing” act with the West and Russia’s relinquishment of its aforementioned subsidies, both of which are linked to one another in a “chicken and egg” way wherein it’s difficult to tell which is responsible for which.

Belarus has indeed been drifting Westward for over the past half-decade because it believed that this would enable it to receive better benefits from a “jealous” Russia, while Russia’s ongoing systemic economic transition necessitates cutting unnecessary costs such as the generous subsidies to Belarus in order to redirect investment into the “National Development Projects”. Some in Russia regard President Lukashenko as being a crafty politician who’s dangerously flirting with the West in order to spite his Russian counterpart following a series of highly publicized but ultimately manageable trade disputes over the years, while there are those in Belarus who think that Russia wants to “punish” it for not “rubber-stamping” Moscow’s proposals for the so-called “Union State” which some fear would result in the inevitable loss of the country’s sovereignty in practice. These suspicions of one another have undoubtedly been exploited by the US to exacerbate the preexisting differences between these two officially “fraternal” states so as to drive a major wedge into Russia’s Eurasian integration plans for the emerging Multipolar World Order. Nobody should be surprised by any of this, however, if they were objectively observing relevant developments since 2015 like the author of this analysis was.

From President Lukashenko’s Own Lips

Against this ever-worsening bilateral backdrop, President Lukashenko’s latest words take on an ominous meaning. As reported by BelTA, the publicly financed and official international media outlet of Belarus, the Belarusian leader had the following to say earlier this week:

“I will not say that the United States is such great friends of ours. But the period of this cold, when we looked at each other over some reinforced concrete thick wall, is over. There is no need to moan or worry in this regard. We are forging relations with the greatest empire, the leading country in the world…Russia has got concerned about it. But have we advanced more in the relations with the United States than Russia? Look at them. They are trying to make nice with them, though it is not actually working. Are we worried? We are happy when they cuddle and kiss. Yet, they mounted hysteria over the visit of the secretary of state! Yes, he did visit us. I did not hide it, I hinted that we had a long-standing relationship in absentia. If we declassify all the materials, the world will applaud us. Mr Pompeo, when he was CIA director, and I conducted some major operations here. They contacted us, gave us information. We detained people here with nuclear materials on the border. We detained such people without their involvement, too. This issue is number one for them.

But our ill-wishers in Russia have not taken the trouble of studying the background of the relations. We have been building our relations in an inconspicuous and low-key way. [The US] reproached [Putin during his visit to the US when Belarus was still at odds with the US] that the dictatorship in Belarus existed thanks to him. When we met after that, he said to me, ‘Listen, I am asking you to be nicer with them’. He asked me not to quarrel, to mend relations. Look, this is what I am doing now. Who in Russia is now concerned about this? Whose toes have we stepped?…We have discussed everything (during Pompeo’s visit to Minsk last week): what I know and what they know. He spoke frankly about his politics. I described it the way I see it. He understands our current problems. They are well aware, even sometimes better than me, about some issues in our relations with Russia. He told me not to worry, that they will help Belarus. His said that the USA will deliver oil to Belarus at competitive prices.”

Basically, President Lukashenko acknowledged his very close working relationship with the CIA that was ostensibly established in order to stop nuclear smuggling activities that Russia allegedly wasn’t able to do anything about, which casts his neighbor as a ‘dangerous rogue state’. He also defended his rapprochement with the US on the basis that none other than President Putin told him to go through with it, thus deflecting what he feels is the unfair criticism directed against him by some in Russia. Not only that, but he insists that Russia has tried much harder to get closer to the US than his own country has (the ‘NewDetente‘), thus implying that Russia’s concerns are hypocritical. Growing angrier and angrier, he then let loose a diatribe against Russia that was reported on in another BelTA article from earlier this week:

“It is highly likely that I will meet with President Putin on 7 February. I believe, and I will tell him openly about it, that some moment of truth has come. We have built these good relations [between Belarus and Russia]. We were the architects of these relations. Are we the ones to break them at the end of our political career? We cannot be here forever. The question is what legacy we will leave…However, when you purchased Beltransgaz, you promised that we would get Russia’s domestic prices within five years. Go ahead and do it. Why are you deceiving us? Actually, you are not deceiving us, you just think that we have forgotten it. We just want fair, genuine and transparent relations. If you do not want the same, just let us know. Do not shout: ‘Oh, Pompeo [U.S. secretary of state] has come. He will be followed by Trump tomorrow. What are they going to do?’

If some Russians are concerned about what side we are looking at, let them have a look at their double-headed eagle who looks both sides. We are in the center. Therefore, we are watching what is going on around us. We are not Russia. This is a ‘bear’, a huge country. They can afford looking at the east and west and nowhere else. When it comes to us, if we miss something, our eagle will lose its head and find itself six feet under. Therefore, we are monitoring the situation around us and rely on ourselves…Russians have got on their high horse and are trying to bring us to our knees. What we are asking them is: if you cannot provide us with duty-free oil within the Eurasian Economic Union (you are trying to fool us around with this tax maneuver), then sell it to us at global prices.

How do you supply oil to Hungary, Poland and the West? Without any premium. Can an elder brother treat the most allied nation in such a way? After all, we are not asking them for money. We have paid back the loans taken last year, we have not applied for new loans. As far as loans are concerned, Americans pay them 1.5% for keeping their foreign currency there, while we pay them from 4% to 6%. This just could not make us happier – paying $1 billion to Russia every year. They have used their money in a very lucrative way…[Russians] do not want [cooperation]. They want to hit us on the head and bring us to our knees the Byzantine way. We are ready to cooperate. However this cooperation should be fair, transparent and bona fide. We are not asking for any additional preferences, just the same terms as they offer the West.

They have suggested that we pay $127 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas. Spot prices in Europe are under $100. We see what is going on around us and we know how to count. Therefore, stop yelling that you are providing for us. The trade shows who provides for whom. We are running a $9 billion trade deficit with Russia. In other words, they sell here $9 billion more worth of goods than they buy. Who provides for whom? Experts know that. However propaganda there is trying to pit Russians against Father Lukashenko and Belarus. Why do they need all that? The time is gone when they shouted that Lukashenko will grab the Golden Cap. Do not be afraid. We need to straighten relations. We need to pass to a new generation what we have achieved [in relations with Russia in the previous years] in a decent way.”

To simplify everything, Belarus is furious that Russia is allegedly ripping it off and supposedly treating it as a “junior partner” instead of a full-fledged equal one. Hammering home the point, President Lukashenko can’t believe that his partner wants to sell him resources at a higher price than the West pays. He’s apparently afraid that the systemic shock caused by paying such higher prices could crush his economy, even endangering Belarus’ stability, but he still thinks that a solution might be agreed to during the “moment of truth” slated for this Friday. All told, the words that came straight from President Lukashenko’s own lips vindicate what the author has been warning about for nearly the past five years already concerning the underlying distrust in Russian-Belarusian relations, leading him to wonder why his writings weren’t taken seriously.

What Went Wrong

It can’t be known for sure, but there are several explanations of why barely anyone realized how bad Russian-Belarusian relations were becoming until it might have been too late. From the “official” sphere on down, decision makers might have been caught up in the illusion of “groupthink”, believing that the latest series of growing disagreements between the two countries would follow the same model as before and thus eventually be resolved without any serious changes to their strategic partnership. They overlooked the seriousness of the most recent spat and also didn’t seem to have accurately predicted just how resolute President Lukashenko was in his “balancing’ response, going as far as actively soliciting energy from Norway, Saudi Arabia, and even the US. In addition, these decision makers seem to have believed Belarus wouldn’t go through with paying higher costs for these same resources that they could get much more cheaply from Russia, completely missing the point that President Lukashenko might not mind forking out a premium in exchange for what he rightly or wrongly considers to be “more reliable” contracts with “partners” who he feels treat him and his country “with the respect that they deserve” (for their own self-interested reasons of eroding Russia’s market share there).

The expert community, meanwhile, might have not wanted to “cause a scandal” by speaking frankly about their observations over the years if they privately understood exactly how serious the situation was becoming. Bilateral relations are very “sensitive”, largely owing to the single-person (“authoritarian”) nature of Belarusian decision making, so inadvertently “offending” President Lukashenko with a public “op-ed” directly calling out his intentions might have only made matters worse and accelerated the same “balancing” trend that Moscow wanted to stymie. It should be said that some experts other than the author have spoken out over the years, but their words evidently weren’t heeded, possibly because decision makers might have interpreted their “dark scenarios” simply as an element of “pressure” on President Lukashenko and not anything that they truly believed would transpire. At the “grassroots” level of the Alt-Media Community, “influencers” and casual commentators alike are mostly indoctrinated with the false dogma that “Russia is always winning while the US is always losing”, therefore regarding analyses such as the author’s own either as “attention-seeking fear porn”, or worse, as the “subversive act of a foreign agent trying to sabotage bilateral relations” (as if his humble articles have the power to shape the course of International Relations and therefore history itself!).

A New Era Awaits

Considering all that’s been covered in this analysis thus far, it’s obvious enough that President Lukashenko was correct in describing his upcoming meeting with President Putin on Friday as “the moment of truth” in bilateral relations, one which will lead to a new era in their partnership one way or the other. It seems as though the Belarusian leader is giving his Russian counterpart a “final chance” to submit to his demands for what he considers to be “fair and equitable relations” across all spheres, especially concerning energy and commercial trade, thus carrying the optics of an “ultimatum”. The most positive outcome would be if Presidents Lukashenko and Putin reach a “pragmatic” and all-encompassing “compromise” with one another to reboot their bilateral relations and put the past scandalous year behind them, maturely undertaking the necessary steps to allay their counterpart’s suspicions and restore their partnership back to its previously “unshakeable” strategic level. For as mutually beneficial of an outcome as that would be, it’s unclear exactly how likely it is to happen given that President Lukashenko might have already made his mind up to “balance” (“gradually pivot”) away from Russia, seeking only to reiterate that he will not “flexibly compromise” on his “final demand” (“ultimatum”) so as to then have the “publicly plausible” pretense for this new policy if President Putin refuses.

As such, it might be more likely that the second scenario will transpire wherein the meeting is a “failure” and then President Lukashenko returns home to announce that his country will be gradually “reforming” its relations with Russia, possibly by lessening its participation in the Moscow-led CIS, CSTO, and/or EAEU with an intent to eventually withdraw from one, some, or all three organizations in an “organized” manner. Russia’s currently dominant role in Belarus’ military and economic affairs might then be replaced with the US, China, and the EU (with an emphasis on the Polish-led “Three Seas Initiative“), each possibly in different respects so as to avoid repeating its over-dependence on any single partner. This doesn’t mean that Belarus would succeed with such a “balancing” strategy, but just that President Lukashenko might believe that it’s his nation’s “best option” given the circumstances, though he would do well to remember that public opinion is also very important in today’s world and that he might risk the ire of his largely Russophilic population through such moves if they interpret them as “passive-aggressive” or even potentially “hostile” towards the “Russian World” that many of them sincerely feel attached to. In that event, it’s anyone’s guess what the domestic political consequences could be, but President Lukashenko might be “daring” enough to find out.

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In chronological order, here are previous articles by the author focussing on Belarus-Russia Relations

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This article was originally published on OneWorld.

Andrew Korybko is an American Moscow-based political analyst specializing in the relationship between the US strategy in Afro-Eurasia, China’s One Belt One Road global vision of New Silk Road connectivity, and Hybrid Warfare. He is a frequent contributor to Global Research.

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