No Hope for Ukraine: Losing Artillery = Losing the War
Ukraine is running out of tanks, Russia has fortified its frontline and has got plenty of troops to hold every centimeter.
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Losing Artillery = Losing the War
Ukraine is running out of artillery shells and NATO cannot deliver. The Washington Post admits that Ukraine faces a critical ammunition shortage which has no solution. In desperation, Ukrainians silence their guns, collect dangerous unexploded ordinance, and try to make improvised artillery shells. This is ultimately an artillery war. See this.
Russia has locked Ukraine into static positions where the Ukrainians are being hammered by Russian artillery. More than 90% of casualties are inflicted by artillery. Ukraine losing the artillery due to lack of ammunition and guns simply means Ukrainians are dead and lose the war. That will in even the best case happen to Ukraine late-Summer 2023.
Everything Stacks Up Against Ukraine
Ukraine also has no chance of creating a mobile war. Ukraine is running out of tanks and after its partial mobilization, Russia has fortified its frontline and has got plenty of troops to hold every centimeter. Where Ukraine has difficulty to move troops from sector to sector because Russia has destroyed the power-supply for Ukraine’s electric trains, Russia for its part has developed rail-logistics, roads, and depots all the way around Ukraine.
Russia also keeps training reserves and hold them ready. Russia has doubled much of its defense production and is about to increase its standing army by an additional 500,000 soldiers. Russia is constantly moving these reserves around and holding drills all around Ukraine – never letting Ukraine know if, when, or where Russia starts a surprise attack. Within 24 hours, Russia can start an attack or counteroffensive and keep pouring in forces for days anywhere from Belarus down to Kherson. NATO has so far only delivered 57 heavy tanks – another 50 tanks have to wait and may come too late, if ever.
All talk about more Western tanks, especially weak old Leopard 1 and very few stronger US Abrams is for “later in 2023 or perhaps 2024”. Meanwhile, President Putin has announced that Russia’s tank production is now ramped up to 1,600 tanks per year. As a consequence of Russia’s mass attacks with drones, Ukraine is also running out of air defense missiles. Contrary to Ukraine, Russia for its part seems to have an endless supply of missiles and artillery ammunition. For more than a year since the beginning of 2022, US “experts” have told lies that that Russia is “running out” of missiles and ammunition, but Russia continues to fire them on an enormous scale.
Because Russia wins the artillery duels, Ukraine and even the USA is running out of anti-artillery radars to conduct artillery-duels. In addition to overwhelming artillery barrage, Russia has started using a range of mass-produced guided bombs up to 1.5 tons that can destroy fortified as well as moving targets with precision 40 km away by aircraft from 40,000 feet altitude, outside the range of Stinger missiles and Ukraine’s old-type BUK air defense. Ukrainians suffer “death from above” by the tens of thousands without ever seeing the Russians. All Western reports of Russia running out of men, equipment, ammunition, will to fight, or feeling an impact from sanctions are a lie. Ukraine and NATO have run out of Stinger anti-air missiles and Javelin anti-tank missiles to deploy in the war. The Washington Post has earlier admitted that Ukraine has lost nearly all its experienced soldiers, and even worse, Ukraine as suffered the irreparable loss of most of its experienced commanding officers and NCOs (sergeants etc.).
Strategic Losses for Ukraine
No matter how much US “experts” try to lie that the city Artemovsk (formerly known by its Ukrainian name Bakhmut) is of no importance, the fact is that the city is a key strategic point. Artemovsk is a strategic logistical center and has been a huge fortified position with underground bunkers and tunnels for Ukraine. In a week or so, it will be completely gone for Ukraine.
In Artemovsk, Russia has control of everything of the East and Center (incl. the city hall) all the way to the railway line and is breaking into the remaining western positions of Ukraine from the North and South. At the MiG statue in the South of Artemovsk, Russia is now overlooking the western fields and dirt tracks where Ukraine with great difficulty and heavy losses could haul a few supplies. Ukrainians are cut-off in Artemovsk, their forces are getting more and more cramped as they retreat into a smaller and smaller western area. The Ukrainians cannot evacuate their dead or wounded, cannot rotate forces, and cannot receive ammunition, food, water, or medical supplies. Even in the best case, Ukrainians occupy less than 15% of the city. See map.
Zelensky’s Empty Promises of Offensives
President Zelensky already in early March 2023 ordered his soldiers to sacrifice themselves in Artemovsk (Bakhmut), including with a false promise of a “de-blocking” offensive to rescue them. Zelensky even went to nearby town Chasov Yar around 22 March 2023 to give a pep-talk to his soldiers supposed to “liberate” Artemovsk. But nothing has happened from the Ukrainian side to “de-block” Artemovsk for over a month. On the contrary, Russia has fortified its grip on the city and is marching fast forward inside it (ref. map). Russia has even tightened its grip on another strategic and fortified city, Avdiivka, during the past month. This simply proves, that Ukraine is out of strength. Later, snowfall was said to hamper Ukrainian operations. Bogus. Snow didn’t hamper the Russians who even took advantage of the snowfall to advance. Ukraine is so weak that Russia just presses on everywhere on the front, including (with great Russian success) Artemovsk. Apart from also encircling Avdiivka, Russia also on a daily basis destroys hundreds of Ukrainians in Kremenna in the northern front and continues to press on Vuhledar in the South.
The End of Ukraine
Ukraine may start a “counteroffensive” – somewhere. The humiliating absence of Ukraine’s promised “de-blocking” of Artemovsk proves that Ukraine cannot. Cannot anything. Russia is starting to look forward to Ukraine’s attempt to start a “lemming-offensive” with inexperienced troops, lack of officers to lead, lack of air cover, lack of tanks, and lack of artillery or even ammunition.
In Kherson city, Russia in 2022 had the disadvantage of logistics across the Dnepr river. Not anymore. In Kharkov region, Russia in 2022 had the disadvantage of a low number of troops. Not anymore. This time, Ukrainians will be having the bad luck of attacking against plenty of well-trained Russians defending from several lines of prepared and well-supplied positions – everywhere. And for a considerable time, Ukraine will face the disadvantage of muddy ground impeding offensive mobility and logistics moving forward.
Through artillery, Russia destroys some 10 Ukrainian artillery pieces and 10 or even more Ukrainian armored vehicles plus often a couple of tanks on a daily basis. If Ukraine waits another month until the mud dries and they get a handful more NATO tanks, Russia will have destroyed 500-700 more Ukrainian armored vehicles and artillery pieces, even before Ukraine gets its act together. That’s a lot compared to Ukraine’s expected NATO delivery of 1,200 armored vehicles and less than 100 tanks. Ukraine even seems to contemplate an attack in Kherson region across the wide Dnepr river against prepared Russian positions on the opposite bank. Clearly a suicide operation. On top of this, Ukraine has all the other serious disadvantages mentioned above. Ukraine may try an attack on the Crimea bridge, but that will not give Ukraine’s weak army strength to take the South and cut other Russian logistics and depots. In an offensive, Ukraine will as the attacker take much heavier losses. A Ukrainian offensive will only accelerate Ukraine’s demise. It will be a Russian “shooting gallery”.
It is dawning upon the West, that any Ukrainian offensive will be Ukraine’s last.
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Karsten Riise is a Master of Science (Econ) from Copenhagen Business School and has a university degree in Spanish Culture and Languages from Copenhagen University. He is the former Senior Vice President Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of Mercedes-Benz in Denmark and Sweden.
He is a regular contributor to Global Research.
All images in this article are from the author
