On January 13, the President of the International Court of Justice, Nawaf Salam, was designated Prime Minister of Lebanon by the newly elected President Joseph Aoun, after receiving the greatest support from among Lebanon’s 128 members of Parliament.
Hezbollah and its ally, the Amal Movement, did not vote along with their fellow members of Parliament, and had preferred the other candidate, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati.
On January 9, Joseph Aoun was elected by the Lebanese parliament to be President of Lebanon, an office that had laid vacant for two years. Aoun enjoys the support of the United States and Saudi Arabia, and his election marks a shift in the power balance since Hezbollah was severely degraded by Israel in the 2024 war.
In his former role as commander of the Lebanese Army, Aoun played a critical role in the implementation of a US-brokered ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah.
Lebanon’s constitution calls for the President to be a Maronite Christian, the President to be a Sunni Muslim, and the Speaker of the Parliament to be a Shiite. Nabih Berri, the head of the Amal Movement, has been the Speaker for decades.
Judge Salam is outside of the ruling class, as is Aoun. Members of Parliament voting for the position of the Prime Minister voiced wanting to see a new type of office holder in Lebanon, one which is not weighted down by the baggage of past history. The 2019 crisis in Lebanon has been blamed on the wealthy ruling elite who have been accused of systematic corruption.
On January 12, Israel carried out air strikes in Lebanon, targeting areas in the east and south, with the Israeli military saying it hit Hezbollah targets including smuggling routes along the border with Syria. The airstrikes come during a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, which came into effect on November 27, 2024.
On December 8, 2024, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow along with his relatives and billions of dollars of public funds accumulated over 24 years of corruption. While the Syrian people cheered his ouster, Hezbollah and Iran were dealt a severe blow, as he was their ally and used Syria as the transit hub of Iranian smuggled weapons to Lebanon.
Hezbollah finds itself in a weakened state, having suffered from months of airstrikes, targeted assassinations, and a ground invasion. The loss of Syria’s Assad cannot be overly emphasized, as he had allowed Iran and Hezbollah free rein in Syria for years in exchange for personal protection.
Saudi Arabia has reemerged as a political influence in Lebanon after Iran has been pushed out. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman sent his emissary, Prince Yazid Bin Farahan, to Beirut shortly before Aoun was elected President.
Saudi-Lebanese tensions began after the 2005 assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, who was a Saudi-Lebanese dual citizen. Recently, the cousin of Asma, the wife of Bashar al-Assad, said in an interview from Beirut that Assad ordered the Hariri murder.
The United Arab Emirate’s President, His Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, sent a high-level delegation to Beirut to prepare to reopen the UAE embassy in Beirut. The delegation announced UAE’s unwavering position toward Lebanon’s unity, national sovereignty, and territorial integrity.
In 2019, Lebanon plunged into a financial and social crisis after violent street protests erupted across the country. Protesters accused the wealthy ruling elite of corruption after the banks closed and the Lebanese Lira began its decent downwards. This crisis pitted the poor and the working-poor against the small segment of the mega-wealthy in Lebanon, who traditionally control the government and its functions.
Riad Salameh was governor of Lebanon’s central bank, Banque du Liban, from April 1993 until July 2023. He is the most prominent face of the corrupt ‘political gang’ in Lebanon. In September 2024 he was arrested, accused of embezzling $330 million from the financially stricken country.
He is alleged to have siphoned the funds into Europe and the US, while using girl friends and relatives in his corrupt scheme. His vast real estate empire across Europe has been seized by the judiciary for a total value of about $92 million. European banks allowed about $100 million of suspicious funds to flow through Luxembourg-based companies used by Salameh to funnel funds out of Lebanon.
In 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) proposed a four-year loan of $3 billion to Lebanon, however the lender had stipulations which were never met by Lebanon. With a new President and Prime Minister now in place, hopes are rising that the stage is now set for the implementation of the IMF loan. Lebanon had stopped making payments on its $29 billion of Eurobonds in 2020, and at one point all banks were closed, which led to bank account holders staging bank ‘hold-ups’ to free their cash. The IMF wants to see a financial system in Lebanon free of corruption and able to make necessary policy decisions prior to freeing up the finds.
On January 11, former Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, met with Ahmed al-Sharaa, the interim leader in Damascus. The discussions centered on Syrian refugees in Lebanon returning home, drugs and weapons smuggling, and the need to secure their land borders, as well as to delineate sea borders. Both Lebanon and Syria have undeveloped off-shore energy deposits yet to be exploited.
In mid-December, Mikati had called for Syrian refugees in Lebanon to go home following the ouster of Assad. Authorities in Lebanon say the country hosts around two million Syrians, while more than 800,000 are registered with the United Nations.
According to the World Bank in 2023, Lebanon’s population was 5.354 million, making the Syrian refugee community almost half of the country’s population.
“The strain on our resources has been substantial, worsening existing economic trouble and creating fierce competition for jobs and services,” Mikati said.
Belgium, Denmark, Germany and the Czech Republic have stopped processing asylum applications filed by Syrians. Recently, Austria’s government has said it was offering Syrian refugees in the country a ‘return bonus’ of €1,000 euros to go back to Syria.
Europe’s migration policies are taking a new direction following the ouster of Assad. Italy, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Austria are pushing for a mass repatriation of Syrian refugees, citing the unsustainable situation in Europe.
In Germany, approximately 80,000 Syrians have filled critical positions in healthcare, engineering, and construction. Over 5,000 doctors and thousands of skilled technicians are keeping the wheels of the German economy turning.
Austria’s far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ), led by Herbert Kickl, is demanding immediate deportations and a cut in refugee benefits.
Some Syrians living in Turkey, Europe and Lebanon are not keen on returning home to an Islamist administration in Damascus. Having lived years in a democracy, and a free society, they are cautiously waiting to see how the future of the post-Assad government develops before packing their bags.
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This article was originally published on Mideast Discourse.
Steven Sahiounie is a two-time award-winning journalist. He is a regular contributor to Global Research.
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