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As “politically inconvenient” as it may be for some to admit, whether they’re multipolar supporters outside of Brazil or members of the PT, it’s arguably the case that Lula is meddling in Nicaragua nowadays at Biden’s behest shortly after jointly condemning Russia alongside his US counterpart in DC. These two unfriendly developments literally concern countries on opposite sides of the planet, but they’re inextricably connected in the sense that they confirm Lula’s recalibrated worldview.
The US’ Hybrid War On Nicaragua
The US’ Hybrid War on Nicaragua that began in 2018 as punishment for President Daniel Ortega’s efforts to strengthen his Central American state’s sovereignty is entering a new phase after Brazilian President Lula da Silva just decided to participate in this regime change campaign. That newly re-elected and now three-time leader authorized his Ambassador to the UN Tovar da Silva Nunes to condemn Nicaragua before that global body and offer to host those of its people who’ve been stripped of their citizenship.
Anadolu Agency reported that the Brazilian envoy told the international community the following:
“The Brazilian government follows events in Nicaragua with utmost attention and is concerned with the reports of serious human rights violations and restrictions on democratic space in that country, in particular summary executions, arbitrary detentions and torture of political dissidents.
Brazil stands ready to explore ways in which this situation can be constructively addressed in dialogue with the government of Nicaragua and all relevant actors.
The Brazilian government also receives with extreme concern the decision of Nicaraguan authorities to determine the loss of nationality of more than 300 Nicaraguan citizens.
By reaffirming its humanitarian commitment to the protection of stateless persons and the reduction of statelessness, the Brazilian government makes itself available to welcome the people affected by this decision under the special statute provided for in the Brazilian migration law.”
This disturbing declaration will now be analyzed so that they reader can understand its full significance.
Ortega blamed the US for conspiring to overthrow his democratically elected government all the way back at the beginning of this off-and-on unrest over the past four and a half years. According to him, drug traffickers, foreign agents, and “NGO” intelligence fronts were operationalized to that end in an effort to violently oust him from office. After that part of their plot failed, the conspirators then tried to manipulate voters against him ahead of the November 2021 elections, yet that ultimately failed as well.
The Russian-Nicaraguan Strategic Partnership
Since the start of this Hybrid War up until the present, Nicaragua has comprehensively expanded its relations with Russia, even opening up an honorary consulate in Crimea in November 2020 in what represented the first foreign diplomatic mission in that region since its reunification with Russia. This was to be expected in hindsight since Ortega already recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia around one month after Russia secured their independence in the US-provoked Georgian War in August 2008.
Upon Russia being forced into commencing its special operation, Nicaragua abstained from the first UN Resolution against it but then vetoed the following two in October and last month as well as the one last April calling to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council. Ortega was also one of the first leaders to support his Russian counterpart’s recognition of the Donbass Republics’ independence prior to the start of that aforementioned ongoing operation.
There’s much more to their ties than just the diplomatic dimension, however, since the military one is even more important. Russia and Nicaragua very closely cooperate in this sphere, and that Central American state also participated in last year’s Vostok 2022 drills in its partner’s Far Eastern region. The US’ Senior Director for the Western Hemisphere at the National Security Council said last September that Russia’s military ties with Nicaragua worry him more than its ones with Cuba or even Venezuela.
On the humanitarian front, Russia operates a land-based satellite station in Nicaragua to assist with disaster responses and shipped over 400 tons of flour to it in order to alleviate the consequences of the Western-provoked global food crisis. As for the economic aspect of their ties, that Central American state is considering participating in its partner’s Mir payment system and launching a maritime trade corridor to its Far Eastern region. All told, these two are true and trusted strategic partners.
Brazilian Meddling In Nicaragua’s Domestic Affairs
Having explained the Hybrid War context of the latest Nicaraguan Crisis and the role that this Central American state’s strategic partnership with Russia has played in ensuring its stability during these tough times, the reader can now better understand the seriousness of Brazil’s meddling in its affairs. Lula’s UN envoy offered for his country to host those over 300 Nicaraguans who were stripped of their citizenship and deported to the US after being found guilty of betraying their homeland.
Under the false pretext of “humanitarian commitments”, Brazil is volunteering to host these US-backed regime change traitors, who will in all likelihood continue trying to overthrow their democratically elected government with a wink and a nod from Lula himself. His policy can therefore objectively be described as “humanitarian imperialism” since it’s the exploitation of manipulated “humanitarian” optics for imperialistic ends, in this case helping the US illegally remove Ortega from office.
Observers should remember that Lula just met with Biden a month ago in DC, during which time they issued a joint statement that included a sharp condemnation of Russia. This was followed by the Brazilian leader being endorsed by Color Revolution mastermind George Soros and then ordering his diplomats to vote against Russia during the latest UN Resolution that Nicaragua vetoed, after which he spoke to Zelensky and discussed the latter’s “peace formula”, which includes prosecuting Russia.
“Lula’s Recalibrated Multipolar Vision Makes Him Amenable To The US’ Grand Strategic Interests”, especially since he shares the ruling US Democrats’ liberal–globalist worldview to a large extent nowadays, in particular its domestic dimension. Despite politically aligning with the US against Russia in the most geostrategically significant conflict since World War II, most of his Workers’ Party (PT) base has been brainwashed by a literal disinformation operation into thinking that he’s “playing 5D chess”.
Analyzing Lula’s Ideological Motivations For Doing Biden’s Bidding
Whether it’s against Russia or now against Nicaragua too, Lula is clearly doing Biden’s bidding in the New Cold War, though he’s admittedly holding back a bit by not going as all-out as the US wants. This explains why he’s not arming Kiev, sanctioning Russia, and why he didn’t order his diplomats to sign a recent joint declaration condemning Nicaragua. None of this is being done under pressure or as part of a so-called “master plan”, but is simply due to Lula’s recalibrated worldview since his imprisonment.
The way he seems to see everything is that the world is truly divided between democracies and dictatorships exactly as the US has claimed in its information warfare campaign throughout the course of the New Cold War. With that in mind, it’s consistent with this assessment – irrespective of whether or not anyone agrees with it since it’s Lula’s sovereign right as the head of state to conclude and subsequently act upon – to condemn both Russia and Nicaragua while also claiming to want to mediate.
He either isn’t sincere with the second-mentioned goal or is so ideologically divorced from objective reality as to think that his respective condemnations don’t disqualify him from mediating either crisis, not to mention volunteering to host US-backed regime change traitors who were deported by Managua. In any case, continuing to cling to this superficially “noble” goal despite the policies that he promulgated disqualifying him from this can be spun to defend himself from accusations of colluding with the US.
Amidst the impending trifurcation of International Relations between the US-led West’s Golden Billion, the Sino-Russo Entente, and the Global South, Lula is actively positioning Brazil to align itself much closer with the US’ bloc than the other two, including the third one of which it’s a part. Instead of remaining neutral towards NATO’s proxy war on Russia like his fellow BRICs members have and not meddling in Nicaragua, he condemned those two multipolar partners and thus sent a clear signal.
Concluding Thoughts
As “politically inconvenient” as it may be for some to admit, whether they’re multipolar supporters outside of Brazil or members of the PT, it’s arguably the case that Lula is meddling in Nicaragua nowadays at Biden’s behest shortly after jointly condemning Russia alongside his US counterpart in DC. These two unfriendly developments literally concern countries on opposite sides of the planet, but they’re inextricably connected in the sense that they confirm Lula’s recalibrated worldview.
His notion of multipolarity isn’t anywhere near the same as Russia’s or Nicaragua’s. Just like his buddy Biden, Lula is convinced that the New Cold War is between democracies and dictatorships instead of being about whether International Relations will return to unipolarity or become multipolar. At the same time, he’s not going as all-out against Russia as the US wants by still declining to arm Kiev or sanction Moscow, but his hosting of anti-Nicaraguan regime change agents represents an escalation.
The difference in his approaches against Russia and Nicaragua is that his perception managers would have difficulty spinning his arming of Kiev and/or sanctioning of Moscow in any way that speciously upholds his allegedly “independent” foreign policy while no such concerns exist with Managua. The first set of policies would immediately generate global attention and thus completely discredit him in the Global South, while the second is barely discussed since fellow faux leftists in the region support it.
On that last point and wrapping up the present analysis, it’s now clear that the latest so-called “Pink Tide” isn’t what it seems. These “New Leftists” who recently swept to power, which includes Lula during his third term, are really liberal-globalist in their outlook and not multipolar like former Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez was or Ortega still is. Lula is now leading the pack and showing that even self-declared “leftists” in modern-day Latin America can end up being the US’ regional Hybrid War proxies.
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This article was originally published on Andrew Korybko’s Newsletter.
