While the Singapore June 12 summit is back on, will it result in a bilateral peace agreement?
It is highly unlikely that Pyongyang will cave in to US demands which require a unilateral process of “denuclearization” on the part of the DPRK. Meanwhile, Donald Trump remains committed to his 1.3 trillion dollar nuclear weapons program which is casually heralded as a means to ensure America’s national security, at tax payers expense.
Trump has reiterated that US economic sanctions directed against North Korea will prevail; he also stated that a new set of sanctions are currently envisaged, but they will be only implemented if there is a “breakdown in negotiations”.
North Korea will be demanding something in return, which the US is unlikely to accept.
Moreover, unless the 1953 armistice agreement is replaced by a peace treaty, war is still on the drawing board of the Pentagon.
North Korea lost 30% of its population as a result of US bombings during the Korean War (1950-53). From their standpoint, the US constitutes a threat to their National Security. Resistance to ongoing US threats for more than half a century: the North Koreans are astute strategists. They will not give in.
What the US wants to achieve is a commitment to a unilateral process of denuclearization.
Kim’s letter to Trump was hand-delivered by a Kim top intelligence adviser Kim Yong-chol, at 1 pm (ET) on Friday June 1st at the White House.
At the time of writing, the contents of Kim’s Letter has not been made public. Reports however intimate that the letter (which constitutes a response to Trump’s earlier letter) suggests a refusal on the part of the DPRK to enter at this stage into a formal agreement with the Trump administration. At the same time, the DPRK may be putting forth certain preconditions for the conduct of subsequent negotiations.
Screenshot, Star Tribune, Jun1, 2018
Without having read the letter, Trump nonetheless confirmed that he would meet Kim Jong-un in Singapore on June 12.
While Trump was briefed by his advisers including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo concerning ongoing US-DPRK negotiations at the DMZ, he nonetheless admitted that he could be in for “a big surprise” upon reading the letter.
In a statement on the South Lawn of the White House (image above) in the presence of the North Korean envoy, Kim Yong Chol, Trump said:
“I think we’re over that, totally over that, and now we’re going to deal and we’re going to really start a process, … We’re meeting with the chairman on June 12 and I think it’s probably going to be a very successful — ultimately a successful process,”
While Trump is visibly preparing for his “Reality Show” in Singapore, Pyongyang is also putting together its own public relations campaign.
Trump’s friend and crony billionaire Sheldon Adelson owns the Sands Bay hotel and Casino which may be hosting some of the Summit’s social events.
Secret Kim-Xi-Putin Meeting Three Days Prior to the Singapore Summit?
According to (unconfirmed) reports, Chairman Kim will be in Qingdao, Shandong Province (PRC) on June 9, for the 18th annual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation organization (SCO) chaired by China’s President Xi Jinping. The report (yet to be confirmed) quoted by the Taiwan media points to the possible holding of a “secret meeting” between Kim Jong-un, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping on the margin of the SCO summit.
The same report intimates that Kim might be making a public address to the SCO plenary. If this were to occur, the dynamics of the Singapore venue would be affected.
Screenshot, Taiwan Tribune, June 1, 2018
It should be noted that the annulment of the 1953 Armistice agreement would require the participation of the three signatory states namely the US, the DPRK and China. And neither China nor South Korea have been invited to the Summit.
It is worth noting that another important timely summit took place in Singapore (June 1), the Asian Security Conference less than two weeks ahead of the Kim-Trump Summit on June 12, 2018.
The tone was aggressive with Defense Secretary Mad Dog Mattis threatening both China and North Korea.
Screenshot, Newsweek, May 31, 2018
The Pentagon said it was prepared to take on both China and North Korea as Defense Secretary James Mattis headed to Singapore for a major international security conference. (Newsweek, June 1, 2018)
Wall Street
Trump’s political statements are often timed to coincide with NYSE activity on Wall Street. The contents of Kim’s letter as well as Trump’s statements pertaining thereto are likely to affect stock markets when they open up on Monday morning. Those who have foreknowledge are slated to make sizeable speculative gains.
