Ukrainian officials acknowledge that Russian forces are advancing in Donbass faster than at any time since the conflict escalated, while at the same time, Kiev says its defences are collapsing due to a shortage of fighters, the Financial Times reported. The news only deepens problems for the Kiev regime, especially following the announcement that Mike Pompeo, who is sympathetic to Ukraine, was confirmed not to have a position in the incoming Trump administration.
The newspaper said Ukrainian military officials and international experts expect the conflict to enter a critical phase in the coming months as both sides jockey for territorial advantage ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration in January 2025 with a key “[battle] shaping up in Russia’s Kursk region,” parts of which Ukraine invaded in August with some of its best-equipped units. Russian troops ultimately held off that invading force.
According to the Financial Times, while Kiev is directing resources to reinforce its incursion into the Kursk region, Ukrainian defences in Donbass are “crumbling” due to a shortage of fighters and ammunition. Russian troops have intensified attacks in recent months, where Ukrainian troops have been unable to hold the front line.
“The average age is already above 40 in various brigades and there doesn’t seem to be enough reinforcements arriving on the frontline,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, a military analyst and fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, to the outlet.
Gady’s revelation about the average age of conscripts comes only days after Solomia Bobrovska, a deputy of the Supreme Rada (Ukrainian parliament) and in the parliament’s defence committee, said that the Ukrainian authorities will not be able to implement the mobilization plan by the end of the year.
Nonetheless, the Kiev regime still believes it can forcibly draft an additional 160,000 citizens between November and February, which the National Security and Defence Council hopes will replenish military units to about 85%.
The London-based newspaper cited military experts and one senior Kiev official as expressing skepticism that the target will be reached, saying drafting up to 100,000 was more realistic to expect.
“That would fill about half of the manpower gap,” they said, which would still be an improvement as some units are currently staffed to about a third of what was needed.
Several Ukrainian commanders and soldiers believe recruitment efforts were hindered by the open-ended nature of military service and the lack of proper training.
“A lot of guys now see mobilization as a death sentence,” said one senior soldier who joined the army in spring 2022 and has not had a break since.
Stanislav Aseyev, a prominent Ukrainian journalist turned soldier, told the British newspaper that “without a clear answer about the period of service and quality of training, the recruits will be as demoralized and ineffective as the current battle-weary infantry.”
The realization that finances will dry up once Trump enters the Oval Office only compounds existing issues, such as the manpower shortage and the lack of weapons. Making Trump’s arrival worse for the Kiev regime is the fact that Mike Pompeo will not have a role in the administration, someone who would have defended Ukraine’s interests against Vice President-elect JD Vance, a Ukraine sceptic.
Senior Ukrainian officials “were disturbed” when Trump announced “there would be no place for Pompeo, seen as more sympathetic [to Ukraine],” The Economist reported, which also quoted one of the officials as saying that it is “a very negative development.”
“The worry now is that Trump’s offer to Ukraine will come to resemble something closer to ideas put forward by J.D. Vance, the incoming vice president,” something that “would essentially rule out [Ukraine’s] NATO membership,” the report added.
In effect, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will not have a voice representing him in the Trump administration, unlike the current situation where his US counterpart Joe Biden is a fervent supporter and has wasted well over $100 billion on helping Ukraine’s war effort. As Ukrainian officials admit, there is already a shortage of manpower, and Russia is rapidly advancing, meaning that the inauguration of Trump to the US presidency shortly on January 20 – in the heart of winter – could not come at a worse time for the Kiev regime.
If there were one gleaming hope for Zelensky, it would be that a figure like Pompeo would have a position in the Trump administration. However, as it appears, there will be no prominent voice to defend Ukraine’s interests.
As temperatures continue to plummet in Ukraine, the situation by the time Trump becomes president again will be even worse than it is today, potentially forcing Zelensky to begin peace negotiations even without major coercion from the incoming administration.
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This article was originally published on InfoBrics.
Ahmed Adel is a Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher. He is a regular contributor to Global Research.
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