“We make threats, but what exactly are we going to do? We’re the guys who couldn’t stop the Houthis from shutting down the Red Sea. Okay?
So, we need to stop thinking of ourselves as this undefeated heavyweight champion that no one can lay a glove on. We may have been that in our prime, but we’re past our prime. We’re overweight, we’re out of shape, we have really expensive systems that are really undermanned, and then, all of a sudden, we have to extend our logistics and communication lines to attack Iran? Good luck with that.” —Larry Johnson: Iran’s new Strategy to teach Israel a Harsh lesson, YouTube
Israel’s failed aerial assault on Iran on October 26 augurs a major shift in the regional balance of power. Iran’s technologically advanced air defense system coupled with its state-of-the-art, long-range hypersonic ballistic missile stockpile make it the most powerful state in the Middle East portending a peaceful era of cooperation and economic integration ahead. In contrast, Israel will be forced to accept its modest role in the emerging order by abandoning its expansionist ambitions and working collaboratively with its neighbors. (If that’s possible.) The prospects for regional peace have been greatly enhanced by the steady erosion of US global power due in large part to the looming financial crisis that will unavoidably curtail Washington’s relentless foreign interventions. With US and Israeli meddling in check, the China-led multipolar world order will quickly replace the threadbare “rules-based” system. Even so, the proximate cause of these remarkable events can be traced back to Israel’s misguided attack on Iran which proved beyond a doubt that Tehran’s multi-layered air defense system along with its prodigious cache of cutting-edge ballistic missiles made it the preeminent power in the region. Here’s a brief summary from former British intel officer Alastair Crooke of how Israel’s attack unfolded:
Judge Andrew Napolitano—Did Israel cause any meaningful damage to Iran in its attack on October 26?
Alastair Crooke—No, but something significant did happen, because the attack was supposed to lead off with the destruction of the air defense systems…. what they call SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) The aircraft was supposed to destroy the air defenses in Iraq, Syria and Iran so the second and third waves would come in with conventional weapons to destroy the targets that had been selected for them. But the second and third wave could only enter Iranian airspace if it was safe for them to do that. (if the air defenses had been properly suppressed) Now what happened (although we don’t know precisely) is that those second and third waves never happened. We got into the first wave and the Israelis said “That’s it, we’re finished. It’s over. We won and it’s a great success.”
What seems to have happened is that the Israeli aircraft with their long-range missiles to destroy the air defense systems never got closer than 70 kms to Iran, too far for their missiles to lock on to the air defenses because they needed the signals to lock onto. …The key thing they said—and this is from Israeli sources—“We’ve discovered an unknown air defense system over Tehran province.” So what seems to have happened is that they (the Israeli aircraft) were being locked onto by another air defense system so they were frightened to go ahead and they scrapped the attack. They then simply released their long-range missiles (Most of these missiles are guided by GPS and the Russians are highly adept at jamming GPS.) But …this unexplained air defense system, was possibly a Russian air defense system that can attack stealth fighters like the F-35s. … If you have a missile that has a radar capacity that is able to identify a stealth fighter, then the whole idea of the attack on Iran seems to have collapsed….
All the conventional bombers carrying conventional weapons wouldn’t go into the area because it was too dangerous, it was not a secure area. The airspace was dominated by air defense that threatened the stealth fighters themselves.
This has huge geostrategic implications if this is what in fact happened….
You see, there was a three-phased plan; and when the plan was scuppered, they just announced the plan as if it had happened. “We’ve succeeded. We flew over Tehran; we suppressed their air defenses, we bombed targets and we destroyed their missile capacity.”
It’s just hype. It’s not true. Judging Freedom, Alastair Crooke, You Tube
So, now Israel has decided to cover up what actually transpired because the strategic implications are just too catastrophic to face. As Crooke points out, if America’s stealth fighters cannot enter enemy space without fear of being detected, then the “whole western defense concept” lies in ruins. So, what Israel’s failed operation did was to expose the vulnerability of critical military assets that have been rendered obsolete by technologically advanced air defense systems that can not only intercept enemy missiles mid-flight but can also destroy the warplanes that launch them.
Let’s summarize:
- Iran has developed an advanced multi-layered air defense system that can counter any potential Israeli attack on the homeland.
- Iran has produced a sizable stockpile of state-of-the-art, long-range hypersonic ballistic missiles that can elude Israeli air defense systems and strike military or civilian targets anywhere in Israel.
The combination of these offensive/defensive capabilities ensures that Iran will continue to emerge as the regional leader.
Game. Set. Match.
For a more detailed account of the Israeli attack see interview with Colonel Jacques Baud or Col Larry Wilkerson & Scott Ritter or this piece in the Unz Review by former CIA officer and intelligence analyst Larry Johnson who says the following:
The Zionists used more than 100 aircraft to send an estimated 200 air-launched ballistic missiles into Iran. Israeli aircraft did not dare to fly inside Iran. And what happened? Iran, with Russian help, shot down the majority of the Israeli missiles. Iran showed no signs of panic or anger in the aftermath of the attack — not what one would expect if Israel’s assault had been a smashing success. Israel and Ukraine Gaslighting to Cover Up Failures, Larry Johnson, Unz Review
Repeat: Israeli aircraft never crossed into Iran’s sovereign airspace. They fired their missiles outside Iran’s borders and split.
The point is that many of the more reliable foreign policy analysts corroborate Crooke’s basic analysis. Yes, a few radar units were apparently destroyed in Iran’s western province of Ilam and in southwestern Khuzestan. And, yes, four Iranians were killed in the offensive. But Israel’s greatly anticipated and meticulously engineered aerial operation was largely a bust that achieved nothing and simply reinforced speculation that Iran has achieved a considerable technological edge on the Jewish state.
As far as deterrents, that is a matter that can only be settled by convincing Israel that serial retaliation is going to cost far-more in terms of blood and treasure than what is gained. So far, Israel has not been persuaded on this matter mainly because it foolishly believes that Washington ‘has its back’. But even the US is not thickheaded enough to engage in a conflict that will inevitably lead to the destruction of its military bases and oil fields across the region sending the US economy into an empire-ending nosedive. So, while the sudden deployment of B-52 bombers and warships to West Asia suggests that Uncle Sam is preparing to join the fray in a Battle Royale against Tehran; it’s all a bluff. The Pentagon has gamed out this very scenario many times before and the outcome has always been the same: The United States is defeated.
In the comments section of Larry Johnson’s recent article at the Unz Review, editor Ron Unz had this to say:
(If Crooke’s analysis of Israel’s attack is) what really happened, I think the implications are potentially gigantic.
As I’d said some time ago, we might be soon seeing the first real-life test between America’s top-line F-35s and the Russian defensive systems. If the latter were clearly successful and the Americans can’t quickly get around this problem, why would other countries buy F-35s? They’re extremely expensive and supposedly have all sorts of maintenance problems, and if they can’t defeat much less costly Russian defensive systems, what good are they?
Also, how likely would it now be that America could actually destroy Iran in a direct war? Obviously, America has far more top-line aircraft than Israel and could deploy them from closer positions, not requiring as much refueling, but why would our F-35s fare any better than Israel’s? Meanwhile, our carriers and bases would probably be very vulnerable to Iranian retaliatory missile strikes.
I’m still not absolutely sure that the Israeli attack was totally unsuccessful, but if that’s the case, the global strategic landscape may have dramatically shifted. Ron Unz, comment 305
All good points, and they fit with our overall theory that US foreign policy elites know that the US cannot prevail in a conventional war with Iran and that, thus, Washington will not follow Israel “like a dumb mule” into battle.
If Israel decides to go to war with Iran, they’ll have to ‘go it alone’, which might just ‘bring them to their senses.’
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As many readers are undoubtedly aware, Iran is fully committed to responding to Israel’s latest aggression as is their right under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter which establishes the right of self-defense for member states. Iran will exercise that right and launch a retaliatory strike sometime in the near future. According to The Times of Israel:
Iran’s supreme leader on Saturday threatened Israel and the US with “a crushing response” over attacks on Iran and its allies…. Iranian officials are increasingly threatening to launch yet another strike against Israel after its October 26 attack on the Islamic Republic that targeted military bases and facilities and that Iran said killed at least five people.
Israel’s retaliatory strikes on Iranian military facilities came weeks after the October 1 attack, in which Iran launched 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, sending most of the population rushing to bomb shelters and safe rooms, causing relatively minor damage to military bases and some residential areas…
“The enemies, whether the Zionist regime or the United States of America, will definitely receive a crushing response to what they are doing to Iran and the Iranian nation and to the resistance front,” Khamenei said in video released by Iranian state media….
The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier likely is in the Arabian Sea, while Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said Friday that more destroyers, fighter squadrons, tankers and B-52 long-range bombers would be coming to the region to deter Iran and its terror allies. The Times of Israel
Iran will not back down or shirk its responsibility. There will be a response, and Israel will be held to account. What happens after the attack is anyone’s guess, but the threat of escalation will not impact Iran’s decision. According to an article at Axios:
The Biden administration warned Iran in recent days against launching another attack on Israel and stressed it won’t be able to restrain the Israelis, according to a U.S. official and a former Israeli official briefed on the issue….
“We told the Iranians: We won’t be able to hold Israel back, and we won’t be able to make sure that the next attack will be calibrated and targeted as the previous one,” a U.S. official said…..
Pentagon press secretary Gen. Pat Ryder said Friday that the U.S. was moving additional ballistic missile defense destroyers, fighter squadron and tanker aircraft, and several U.S. Air Force B-52 long-range strike bombers to the Middle East.
“Secretary Austin continues to make clear that should Iran, its partners, or its proxies use this moment to target American personnel or interests in the region, the United States will take every measure necessary to defend our people,” Ryder said. U.S. warns Iran: We won’t be able to restrain Israel if you attack, Axios
Image is from the Iranian Defense Ministry via AP
These attempts to intimidate Iran are not going to work. From the very beginning, Iran has acted with great patience and restraint, but it cannot allow another country to attack it with impunity. Even so, we should expect that Iran’s attack will be measured and proportional as they have been in the past. At the same time, Tehran needs to send a strong message to Tel Aviv that future provocations will be met with overwhelming force. (IMHO, Iranian leaders will discuss the appropriate response with strategic ally, Russia.)
As for Israel’s October 26 attack on Iran: analyst Alon Mizrahi summed it up like this on X:
What actually transpired in the last Israeli strike?
My ear is quite attuned to the different frequencies of Zionist propaganda, and from the very beginning the celebration seemed a little cold and fake, accompanied by a sense of apprehension and trying to give ‘everything is as it ever was‘.
And now, with the advantage of having been exposed to the reported damages and some other analysis by military experts, we can quite safely conclude that the Israeli strike failed in a major way.
A strike planned for weeks and decades and marketed as a resounding payback proved to have damaged some 2 or 3 structures in a way that’s hardly visible from satellite imagery.
That’s anticlimax if ever I saw one. @alon_mizrahi
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This article was originally published on The Unz Review.
Michael Whitney is a renowned geopolitical and social analyst based in Washington State. He initiated his career as an independent citizen-journalist in 2002 with a commitment to honest journalism, social justice and World peace.
He is a Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG).
Featured image is from TUR
