Iran Fires a Warning Shot Across Israel’s Bow

Sirens sounded across Israel on Tuesday as a massive barrage of Iranian ballistic missiles hit targets around Tel Aviv. The attack was launched in response to Israel’s assassinations of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah’s chairman Hasan Nasrallah. According to a statement released by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, the attack was aimed at “three military bases” in the Tel Aviv area. As of this writing, no casualties have been reported and the extent of the damage remains unknown.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian praised the attack calling it a “decisive response” to Israeli “aggression.”

In accordance with legitimate rights and the aim of [establishing] peace and security in Iran and the region, a decisive response has been made to the Zionist regime’s aggression. Netanyahu should know that Iran is not seeking war, but it will stand firmly against any threat. This is just a glimpse of our capabilities.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei followed the president’s remarks by posting an illustration of a large underground weapons cache that would be used to deter future Israeli aggression.

Less than an hour after the attack, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan delivered an ominous warning saying: “There will be severe consequences for this attack, and we will work with Israel to make that the case.” Sullivan refused to elaborate on the manner in which the US or Israel would retaliate, but some analysts think the response could come as early as Tuesday night.

Unverified video from Israel’s Nevatim Air Base shows a facility that has been severely damaged by Iran’s ballistic missile barrage. The wreckage extends in all directions and dozens of workers are seen picking through the piles of broken concrete and twisted rebar. If the video is real, then it appears that Iran has the technological ability to strike heavily defended installations at the heart of Israel. Naturally, all of this will factor into Tel Aviv’s decision about how best to retaliate.

Aside from Israeli military bases, Iran also landed a direct hit on an Israeli gas platform off the coast of Gaza. The “US-based energy company Chevron …operates the Tamar platform, which is roughly 13 miles off the coast of the Gaza Strip.” Palestinian officials have disputed Israel’s right to sell the gas as the field occupies an area within Palestinian territorial waters. Check out this post from Kathleen Tyson

(Israel) will annex Gaza to deprive Palestinians of Levantine Basin gas revenues, maybe Lebanon too. War is always about hydrocarbons @Kathleen_Tyson_

Bloodlust, yes, but land, oil, and gas lust too. Zionists will not tolerate any revenues from the Levant Basin gas reserves go to Palestinians and Lebanese.

US, UK, and EU are backing the genocides because they lost their bid with proxy Ukraine to regain the oil, gas, and lithium of the Donbas and Crimea.

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It’s worth noting that support for Israel’s expansionist war aims in the Middle East is now encountering stiff resistance among members of Washington’s foreign policy establishment. This is from an article at Politico:

Senior White House figures privately told Israel that the U.S. would support its decision to ramp up military pressure against Hezbollah — even as the Biden administration publicly urged the Israeli government in recent weeks to curtail its strikes, according to American and Israeli officials…

Not everyone in the administration was on board with Israel’s shift, despite support inside the White House, the officials said. The decision to focus on Hezbollah sparked division within the U.S. government, drawing opposition from people inside the Pentagon, State Department and intelligence community who believed Israel’s move against the Iran-backed militia could drag American forces into yet another Middle East conflict….

Officials in the intelligence community, in briefings and talks with members of Congress last week, had said they were increasingly worried about the potential for a direct ground confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah….

The administration’s public message to Israel continues to be: Avoid escalation and keep pursuing diplomacy with Hezbollah. Politico

While the author makes a persuasive case that elements within the US state oppose further escalation, it’s largely a moot point. The Biden administration has been Israel’s greatest enabler and certainly shares equal responsibility for the mountains of carnage strewn across Gaza and soon Lebanon. If a war breaks out between Iran and Israel, the US will back Israel to the hilt underscoring its culpability in mass murder and the triggering a Third World War. Here is a shortened version of today’s Statement by the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces:

“Following the illegitimate actions of the Zionist regime, assassinating our military advisors in Syria and Lebanon, and assassinating the leaders of the resistance such as Ismael Haniyeh and Hassan Nasrallah, and especially its massacres in Gaza and Lebanon, a harsh response was necessary.

The Islamic Republic of Iran, in the past 45 years, has never initiated any war, but will not hesitate to act in self-defence….

If the Zionist regime retaliates against Iran, it must wait for the destruction of its military infrastructure in the occupied Palestinian territories. In case of direct US-support for Israel in any attack on Iran, their facilities and bases in the region will be targeted in a harsh and regretful manner.”

There it is in black and white: ‘Mess with us, and you are in for a world of hurt’. Couldn’t be much clearer than that.

A number of analysts are predicting that Israel will use a nuclear weapon on Iran to plunge the country into chaos and achieve a quick victory. While we don’t discount the possibility that Israel might pursue that option, we think it is unlikely for the simple reason that Putin—who reportedly spoke with Netanyahu on Tuesday—is not going to allow it. Keep in mind, Russia and Iran have significantly strengthened their diplomatic, economic and military ties over the last few years to the point they are openly committed to each other’s security. Here’s how military analyst Will Schryver sums it up:

Russia, China, and Iran have now formed a de facto military and economic alliance — what they prefer to call a “partnership”. In the case of Russia and China, a comprehensive full-spectrum partnership has emerged: military, economic, and monetary….

Russia, China, and Iran conduct regular joint exercises in the Arabian Sea. Those exercises have increased in both scope and frequency in recent years.

Both Russia and China are investing vast sums of capital in Iran, much of it in the energy sector and in ambitious transportation projects aiming to construct fast and efficient trade corridors linking China, Iran, and Russia as primary nodes of Eurasian commerce… Arms and technology transfers between the three countries have reached unprecedented levels….

It is increasingly evident that Russia, China, and Iran recognize that an attack against any one of them would constitute an existential threat to them all. The strategic interests of all three countries are now inextricably intertwined. Most importantly, they are united in a single overriding strategic objective: to dismantle the dominion of the long-reigning Anglo-American empire….

In a putative war between the United States and Iran, both Russia and China would actively support Iran… Iran would simply be supplemented with arms and other logistical necessities from both its partners — and quite possibly taken under their nuclear umbrella in an explicit act of deterrence.

The empire is stretched so thin and its potential for power projection is so diluted that undertaking even one Big War would be enough to bring the entire house of cards tumbling down. This is the harsh reality the Masters of Empire are now facing, and no amount of mythologizing about the “limitless” power at their disposal can change it….

To the extent Russia, China, and Iran are determined to act all for one and one for all, they represent a combination of global military and economic power that cannot be defeated. All for One and One for All, Will Schryver, Twitter

One final thought:

NBC News published an article just days ago that revealed the real reason that Nasrallah was assassinated and, of course, it had nothing to do with the official justification that he was a “terrorist”. No. It was because he was morally committed to saving Palestinians by putting pressure on Israel. In effect, Nasrallah was doing what the UN Security Council would have done months ago if they had found a way to prevent US obstructionism. Here’s the story from NBC:

Israel took the decision to assassinate Nasrallah after concluding he would not accept any diplomatic solution to end the fighting on the Israel-Lebanon border that was not tied to an end to the war in Gaza, an Israeli official said.

Israel had tried repeatedly to reach a separate diplomatic solution with Hezbollah since October 8th but Nasrallah was adamant he would continue firing until Israel made a deal with Hamas, the official told NBC News.

“What we found after over 11 months is that Nasrallah is persistent in tying himself — and the hijacked Lebanese state that he took over — to whatever’s going on in Gaza,” the official said. “He declined every diplomatic effort. He declined messages to stop connecting himself to Gaza. And he continued to fire at Israel, and in the past few weeks or months, even expanded the range and velocity of attacks against Israel.”

“This led us to understand that he cannot be part of the game anymore. And what we did is to conduct a very precise, intelligence-based strike against the headquarters of Hezbollah in Beirut, to make sure that Nasrallah cannot be a decision maker anymore in the region.” Israel decided to kill Nasrallah after he refused to separate Lebanon from Gaza, officials say, NBC News

So, according to Israeli officials, Nasrallah is a hero who sacrificed his life for unarmed civilians who couldn’t defend themselves.

How does that saying go: “Greater love hath no man…..”?

You know the rest.

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Birds Not Bombs: Let’s Fight for a World of Peace, Not War

This article was originally published on The Unz Review.

Michael Whitney is a renowned geopolitical and social analyst based in Washington State. He initiated his career as an independent citizen-journalist in 2002 with a commitment to honest journalism, social justice and World peace.

He is a Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG).  

Featured image: The Iranian air attack on Israel was an extensive air operation carried out by Iran from its territory against Israel on the evening of 1 October 2024, and included 181 projectiles. The result was at least 8 Israelis killed. The photos were taken in the Lower Galilee from a settlement towards the east. (Licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0)


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