The conflict between Israel and militant groups like Hamas and Hezbollah has been a defining struggle in the Middle East for decades. The constant cycle of violence, punctuated by wars, rocket attacks, and incursions, has made Israel’s security one of the most delicate and volatile issues in global geopolitics. As the war intensifies, largely supported and sustained by the United States, the nation of Israel faces a precarious future. The current trajectory suggests that far from achieving a peaceful resolution, this prolonged conflict could lead to Israel’s eventual destruction, driven by both external military pressures and internal socio-political destabilization.
A History of Escalation
The conflict between Israel and Hamas has roots in the broader Israeli-Palestinian struggle. Hamas, an Islamist militant group based in Gaza, has been at war with Israel since its founding in 1987. Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group backed by Iran, emerged during the Lebanese Civil War and has been a constant threat along Israel’s northern border. Both groups reject the legitimacy of the Israeli state and have launched numerous attacks aimed at weakening Israel militarily, politically, and morally.
The United States, Israel’s chief ally, has provided billions of dollars in military aid, intelligence, and diplomatic backing to support Israel’s defense efforts. This support has allowed Israel to maintain a qualitative military edge over its adversaries, ensuring its survival amid regional hostilities. However, the reliance on U.S. backing has also tied Israel’s fortunes to broader American geopolitical strategies, sometimes complicating Israel’s pursuit of a stable, peaceful resolution to its conflicts.
The U.S. Role in the Conflict
The United States has long played a central role in shaping Israel’s military posture and regional strategy. Through financial support, arms sales, and diplomatic interventions, the U.S. has ensured that Israel remains a dominant military power in the region. The Iron Dome missile defense system, sophisticated fighter jets, and state-of-the-art intelligence capabilities have all been supplied or co-developed with the United States.
However, this close relationship has also come at a cost. Israel’s dependence on the U.S. means that it is often aligned with American foreign policy objectives, which can sometimes escalate conflicts rather than defuse them. For example, the U.S. policy of maximum pressure on Iran, including sanctions and the targeting of Iranian proxies, has emboldened groups like Hezbollah, which rely on Iranian support. Hezbollah’s increased aggression towards Israel, particularly in southern Lebanon, is a direct consequence of this heightened tension, leading to a growing two-front threat for Israel—one from Gaza in the south and one from Lebanon in the north.
The Ongoing War and the Erosion of Israel’s Security
The war with Hamas and Hezbollah is no longer confined to short, sporadic outbreaks of violence. The growing sophistication of these groups, particularly Hezbollah, which boasts tens of thousands of rockets and a well-trained fighting force, has elevated the threat level to Israel’s very existence. Israel’s airstrikes, incursions, and military campaigns, supported by U.S. intelligence and technology, have been able to suppress these groups but not eliminate them.
Each round of conflict exacts a heavy toll on Israel. Civilian casualties, economic disruptions, and the constant stress on Israeli society have left deep scars. The war has become more than a military issue; it is eroding the fabric of Israeli society. The nation’s democratic institutions are under immense pressure, with increasing polarization over how to handle the conflict. Far-right factions within Israel push for harsher military responses and territorial expansion, while left-wing and centrist groups call for peace negotiations and a two-state solution. This internal division only adds to Israel’s vulnerability.
Moreover, the constant state of war has turned Israel into a fortress state, diverting vast resources into defense at the expense of other critical areas like social welfare, education, and infrastructure. The never-ending cycle of violence also stifles the potential for peace, as young generations grow up in an environment where war is the norm, making reconciliation seem like a distant dream.
The Growing Geopolitical Isolation of Israel
In addition to its military challenges, Israel faces increasing geopolitical isolation. Although it has normalized relations with several Arab states through the Abraham Accords, the ongoing occupation of Palestinian territories and the treatment of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank continue to draw international condemnation. This growing pressure could undermine Israel’s relationships even with its newfound Arab allies, particularly if the Israeli-Palestinian conflict reignites on a larger scale.
Israel’s aggressive military actions, especially in densely populated areas like Gaza, draw sharp criticism from the international community. The United Nations, European Union, and various human rights organizations regularly condemn Israel for what they consider disproportionate use of force and violations of international law. This criticism not only delegitimizes Israel on the global stage but also complicates its alliances, including those with key Western powers.
As the U.S. becomes increasingly involved in its own internal political struggles and shifts its focus towards the rising challenge from China, Israel may find itself with less unequivocal support from Washington. A reduction in U.S. backing, or even a reorientation of U.S. foreign policy away from the Middle East, could leave Israel more isolated and vulnerable than ever.
The Risk of Overstretch and Collapse
The ongoing war, sustained by U.S. support, is pushing Israel towards a state of overreach. The constant need to fight on multiple fronts—against Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and potentially other regional actors like Iran—threatens to overstretch the Israeli military and economy. Protracted conflict without a clear path to peace is draining Israel’s resources and morale.
If the war continues without resolution, Israel may eventually face the prospect of collapse—not from a single overwhelming military defeat, but from the cumulative toll of endless conflict. The social divisions within Israel, the economic strain of perpetual war, and the erosion of its international standing all contribute to this dangerous trajectory.
Conclusion: A Warning for Israel’s Future
Israel’s war against Hamas and Hezbollah, sustained and supported by the United States, is heading down a dangerous path. While Israel has so far managed to maintain its military superiority, the costs of this constant war are becoming unsustainable. Without a shift in strategy—one that prioritizes diplomacy, peacebuilding, and regional stability—Israel risks heading towards a final destruction, not from external conquest, but from internal disintegration and geopolitical isolation.
The cycle of violence cannot continue indefinitely without breaking the very foundations of the Israeli state. If the current path persists, Israel may find itself facing a future where its survival is no longer guaranteed, a sobering prospect for a nation built on the promise of security and resilience amidst a hostile region. The urgency for a new approach has never been greater.
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Prof. Ruel F. Pepa is a Filipino philosopher based in Madrid, Spain. A retired academic (Associate Professor IV), he taught Philosophy and Social Sciences for more than fifteen years at Trinity University of Asia, an Anglican university in the Philippines.
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Featured image: Statue of the founder of Zionism Theodor Herzl, unveiled in 2012 at the Mikveh Israel synagogue in Tel Aviv. It is called “Herzl meets Emperor Wilhelm II”
