The next global crisis will hit within the next ten years, and is likely to be geopolitical rather than economic or financial, according to a survey by a Moscow analytical center.
The Post-Crisis World Institute Foundation said the current economic downturn is not the last shock: It will entail another crisis which will reshuffle the lineup of forces in the global economy. The liberal model of a market managed by the metaphoric Invisible Hand will become history; the new economy will be state-regulated and governed by nationalist policies. This will lead to the emergence of regional clusters and limit globalization as local community values will prevail. The new global leaders will be China, India, the United States, Russia, Brazil and the EU.
The foundation surveyed 247 economists, consultants, business leaders, state officials and journalists in 53 countries asking their opinion on their vision of the global economic development. “The survey covered specialists in various fields who analyze and understand the current situation and have influence in decision making and shaping of public opinion,” explained Mikhail Polikarpov from the Post-Crisis World Institute.
A quarter of the experts surveyed preferred not to be named, especially in China, which is evidence of discrepancy between the public and the official position, said Yekaterina Shipova, the director of the institute. She said she was amazed at the pessimistic sentiments, which appeared common among intellectuals worldwide: “A geopolitical re-division and a multi-polar world forecast imply war.” There is a concept of a self-fulfilling prophesy, which means that the more people share an apprehension, the more chances it has to come true, she warned.
Separatist moods will grow, and balance will be shattered in some regions, impossible to restore with economic methods; geopolitical tools will be required, said Vladislav Inozemtsev, the head of the Center for Postindustrial Studies, a Moscow-based think tank. The United States is unlikely to accept China’s dominance and emerging nations’ growing clout.
There are even worse scenarios, such as the Taliban using nuclear weapons, said Sergei Guriyev, rector of the New Economic School. On the other hand, stock market quotes and five- and ten-year futures curves suggest that millions of investors do not share the gloomy forecasts. They do not think a geopolitical crisis is inevitable and believe in rational and wise policies of the countries, Guriyev added.
The Post-Crisis World Institute Foundation is an independent analytical center established in Moscow in early 2009, at the initiative of several well-known Russian public and professional organizations, including the Public Opinion Foundation, Stock Market Development Center, the non-commercial partnership Business Solidarity and others.
RBC Daily, Vremya Novostei, Vedomosti
