All Global Research articles can be read in 51 languages by activating the Translate Website button below the author’s name (only available in desktop version).
To receive Global Research’s Daily Newsletter (selected articles), click here.
Click the share button above to email/forward this article to your friends and colleagues. Follow us on Instagram and Twitter and subscribe to our Telegram Channel. Feel free to repost and share widely Global Research articles.
Global Research Fundraising: Stop the Pentagon’s Ides of March
***
The Black Sea was the only geopolitical area where Türkiye could not be surrounded from the collective west until 2004. Not anymore.
It should not be forgotten that the area that played the most important role in the first and last homeland defense of Turkish history in Anatolia, which was occupied after the First World War, was the Black Sea.
The Black Sea Saved Türki̇ye
The Black Sea became the artery of transportation via Russia and provided the logistics for the War of Independence.
If Ataturk – Lenin’s cooperation and the Black Sea did not constitute the basis for this transportation; If war materiel could not be delivered to the Black Sea ports in time; The Turkish War of Independence (1919-1922) could not be won.
The Black Sea formed the backyard for the Independence Road which stretched from Inebolu (a port town on the Black Sea Shore) during the Independence War.
The seas were safety and security as long as they were used favorably. The Black Sea proved this to Anatolia.
The Black Sea became the main testing ground for Türkiye’s active neutrality policy in the Second World War.
Both the Axis and the Allied front put pressure on Ankara to open the Turkish Straits to their warships.
However, Türkiye did not step back.
Only the Germans brought 6 disassembled submarines via the Danube and assembled them in Constanta-Romania, causing damage to the Soviet ports and merchant fleet.
Despite everything, the Black Sea became one of the calmest fronts of the Second World War, as Türkiye remained out of the war thanks to the Montreux Convention.
Thanks to the stability environment created by the nuclear horror balance of the Cold War and the balanced and serious foreign policy implemented by Türkiye, the Black Sea did not witness a serious crisis that would pit the two superpowers against each other during the Cold War.
Furthermore, Türkiye has created an exemplary environment of peace and stability for the world with initiatives such as BSEC, BLACKSEAFOR and BLACKSEA HARMONY.
The Black Sea was a sea of peace and stability from World War II until the Orange revolution that started in Ukraine in 2004 with the provocations of the collective West.
Great Provocation in the Black Sea
Today, the Black Sea is facing the biggest provocation of the last 70 years.
NATO and the West, which were geopolitically defeated after two years in the Ukraine-Russia War that started in 2022 due to the NATO expansion insistently imposed by the USA, are trying every way to reduce Russia’s energy by creating new red zones and to make it weak in the major conflict with China.
In this context, the construction of Europe’s largest NATO base, which will cost 2.5 billion Euros, has started in Romania.
The expansion project of the ‘Mihail Kogalniceanu’ base near Bucharest, also known as the Air Base, is undoubtedly a success for American geopolitics.
It is naive to think that the base in Romania will be used only to surround Russia.
This base will be used effectively to put pressure on Türkiye when it gets closer to Russia against US interests or when it enters into a conflict of interest with the US in Iraq, Libya, Syria or elsewhere.
According to media reports, this base will be larger than the American Ramstein Air Base in Germany. It is an extremely risky and dangerous development for Türkiye today, which managed to remain neutral during the Second World War even when millions of people died in its north.
Because this base will strengthen NATO’s ability to surround Asia and create new conflict areas with Russia.
In a conjuncture where NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana is Romanian and it has been announced that Romanian President Kalus Iohannis will be a candidate in the election process of new NATO Secretary General. So, we can now say that Romania is the new Poland.
The USA loves vassals, but exploits willing vassals with all its might.
The fact that this base, which is expected to be completed within the next 20 years, has a direct land connection with the Dedeağaç (Alexandroupoli/Northern Greece) American base in the Aegean Sea, will allow it to make large military buildups without being subject to Montreux restrictions.
The North Aegean and Black Sea express line has now been opened.
Situation of Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan
Last week, the NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg paid a visit to the three South Caucasus states, which are located in the Wider Black Sea Region, as the Americans call it.
During this visit, which included Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia, it was reported in the press that promises were made to connect all three states to the European-Atlantic security architecture.
If we consider this development that EU forces will be present as observers in the border region of Armenia, which is moving further away from Russia day by day, we can say that Armenia will accelerate its desire to leave the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
Meanwhile, the approval process for Armenia to start the Special Partnership Program with NATO continues.
This country’s coming under American and European influence will accelerate the process of Türkiye being indirectly exposed to pressure and being surrounded from the east.
This situation can be compared to the Caucasian Wall (After World War I, the British wanted to block Bolshevik Russia and create a barrier between Turkey and the Soviets by supporting the three South Caucasian countries, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia) a century ago.
Because Armenia’s malign relations with Turkey, which will leave the Russian sphere of influence and enter the US/EU sphere of influence, will be shaped according to American interests and the situation will worsen for us.
Normalization between Armenia and Turkey can only be possible if this country gives up its genocide allegations, the symbolization of Mount Ararat in its state coat of arms, and the articles demanding territory from Turkey in its constitution.
The rapprochement with Armenia that will be implemented without taking these steps can only be called the concession of the defeated.
It should not be forgotten that in 1920 Sevres Treaty, nearly half of Turkey was left to Armenians and Kurds.
Sevres was the plan of American, British and French Imperialism then.
Nothing has changed today.
US Presidential Elections and the War
NATO’s sending of its Secretary General to the Caucasus, while the war in Ukraine continues and NATO is in serious decline, is not actually aimed at initiating a détente and peace talks with Russia until the American Presidential elections, but on the contrary, it is aimed at increasing the dose and scale of the war.
US President Biden cannot enter the November 5 elections having lost to Russia.
He will try every way to continue the war and win (at least not seem to loose) against Russia.
Discussions on giving F16 aircraft to Ukraine have accelerated; France’s intentions to send combat troops to Ukraine to fight against Russia were announced by Macron himself (and according to some sources, they were even transferred to Kiev); At a time when American, British and French military equipment and personnel were being transferred to Romania via Alexandroupoli, Putin, who broke historical records with both the participation rate (77%) and the vote rate (87%) in the Russian Presidential elections.
He switched to using the direct definition of war rather than the definition of special military operations.
The terrorist incident that took place in a concert hall in Moscow on the night of March 22, in which 137 people were killed, is undoubtedly an integral part of this process.
The attack was falsely claimed by ISIS; Victoria Nuland, one of Biden’s close neocon team, warned Russia to be ready for surprises a few weeks ago; Considering factors such as the US Embassy in Moscow recently calling on American citizens to stay away from crowded places, it can be said that the current situation, where asymmetric strategies prevail, has entered a rapid escalation process.
However, these processes will trigger Russia’s total mobilization and determination to continue the war, beyond the expectations of the United States.
The expectation of neocons and military industry representatives in the USA is for the continuation of the war.
For these segments, the war, wherever it occurs, is seen as a tremendous opportunity for an increase in the American defense budget and foreign military sales.
However, it is not easy to open new fronts under US leadership while the genocide in Gaza and US military support to Israel continues.
The Ukrainian War was easily started, but although Russia was damaged in some areas, it emerged stronger in the geopolitical field.
On the other hand, it is not easy to find new cheap blood sources to replace the 700 thousand young people lost in Ukraine so far.
After this stage, if the USA prolongs the war for Biden and the elections, Russia may not be satisfied with the 4 regions it has annexed to its territory and may make a move towards Odessa to sever Ukraine’s connection with the sea.
In this case, Transnistria, into which Romania and Moldova will be drawn, will go from cold status to hot conflict.
The equation changes.
Romania instead of Poland; Moldova instead of Ukraine; Transnistria Instead of Donbas, may be the new actors in the new scenario for American neocons.
Transdinyester and Moldova: Ticking Bomb
In Gagauz Autonomous Region in Moldova, Christian Turks dominate the south; To the east of the Dniester, there is Transnistria (Republic of Prinistrovia), where 200,000 Russian minorities live.
Let us remind you that the Transnistria region is an independent state not recognized by any other state other than Russia, under the protection of the Russian Army, which has 1,500 soldiers.
On the other hand, on February 28, 2024, the Transnistria Congress decided to officially apply to Russia to request protection against Moldovan pressure.
Last week, Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister Mihai Popşoi, who stands with Ukraine and NATO with an unwavering will, met with NATO Deputy Secretary General Romanian Mircea Geoana in Brussels, and Geoana declared that NATO allies provide all kinds of support for Moldova’s EU membership.
In the same week, Yevgenia Gutsul, the President of the Gagauz (Christian Turks) Region, which has an autonomous status in Moldova, went to Russia and declared her support for Russia in the Ukraine War, which further strained the Russia-Moldova Relations which are already tense due to the Transnistria issue.
Moldova is making great efforts to both gain favor with NATO and become an EU member.
Considering the existence of Romania’s common Latin ethnic ties with Moldova and the existence of periods of political unity in the past (such as the decision to unite with Romania after 1918), Romania, the chief American Vassal in the Black Sea, took his close relative Moldova with him to gain the favor of his master.
It would not be a surprise if Romania started a new process to provoke Russia in the Transnistria region.
If, for Biden’s sake, the Ukrainian War is prolonged and Russia’s inevitable intervention in Odessa is encouraged, then a Russian corridor may be opened to Transnistria through Ukraine.
This triggers the Russia-Moldova and therefore Russia, Romania crisis.
The biggest expectation of the US neocons and the military industry is that Russia and Moldova will enter a period of armed conflict.
If Romania assumes the role of Poland and Moldova becomes new Ukraine, pressure and provocations against Türkiye to become anti-Russian will increase.
Protecting pro-Moscow Gagauz Turks against Moldovan pressures will be an important test for Türkiye.
Meanwhile, as a result of Ukraine’s serious asymmetric successes against the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the responsibility of protecting the Blue Stream and Turkish Stream (Rus-Türk) underwater natural gas pipelines should be taken very seriously by Türkiye.
It should not be ignored that the Nord Stream Pipelines of Germany, the American chief vassal, were blown up with the cooperation of the USA, England and Norway.
Berlin did not even open an investigation into this billion-dollar project, which was paid for by the taxes of the German people.
What a pathetic situation.
ABM Missiles in Romania
There are SM 3 batteries of the US Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (ABM) System at Devesul Naval Base in Romania.
In 2019, the strategic American THAAD Air Defense Missile System was temporarily deployed to protect this base.
This makes the Devesul base the first target to be hit in a conventional or nuclear war.
Let us remind you that this base should work in harmony with the Kürecik X-Band Radar base in Eastern Türkiye.
Therefore, Kürecik radar is among the first targets to be hit.
As we always emphasize, we have no authority over the use of either the Kürecik Radar or the B 61 tactical nuclear bombs in Incirlik Base.
However, the risk of being attacked by nuclear weapons through these two military assets is indescribable.
On the one hand, we are building the first nuclear power plant in our country with Russia.
And also, we keep American B 61 nuclear bombs 230 km northwest of this plant to use against Russia.
We are faced with a complete oxymoron situation.
Turkiye’s Love for NATO Is Open to Concessions
Unfortunately, Türkiye, which is in a serious economic crisis and hungry for hot money, has come to the point of succumbing to all kinds of blackmail and threats of the USA, England and the EU as it goes to local elections.
In other words, the ruling party has returned to its factory settings in 2002.
In this case, Türkiye will be forced to serve American geopolitics as long as it is a member of NATO.
So much so that we have recently seen that the Turkish Armed Forces have been dispatched to NATO missions with great enthusiasm and energy, almost like a primary school child constantly raising his hand in class.
We can even say that compliance has been achieved with the declaration that NATO Secretary General announced last week that we should decide the armament policies and strategies of NATO members.
As a matter of fact, we learned from the media that the NATO Department was established under the Presidency of Turkish Defense Industries.
What a sad situation.
NATO now takes its place at the institutional level in Turkey’s defense industry and armament, which should remain the most secret and private.
This is a great achievement for the US Military Industrial Complex (MIC).
Just last week, the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Defense assigned our F16 aircraft to the task of protecting Romanian airspace.
How and why was this decision taken in such a complex and dangerous conjuncture?
We don’t know.
Ankara, which remained neutral in the Ukraine-Russia war, is now protecting the airspace of its American vassal Romania in this war.
Just as the Transnistria problem was slowly flaring up.
Let’s not forget that we are neighbors from the sea with the Romanians in the Exclusive Economic Zone and Continental Shelf delimitation in the Black Sea.
Let us remind you that both states extract natural gas resources in the Western Black Sea and these fields are adjacent.
So for the USA, there are many options to set up a mega conspiracy on the menu to create a crisis between Romania and Türkiye and use it as a means of pressure.
Interestingly enough, while Türkiye is moving to a new strategic model in the fight against PKK, YPG and PYD in Syria and Iraq, a decision is suddenly made to base an expanded NATO base in Romania.
American bases in Greece to the west; Turkey, which is surrounded by British/French bases in Southern Cyprus to the south, will now be surrounded by an American base as large as Ramstein to the north.
Under the pressure of these enclosures, weak governments will surrender to coercion.
On the other hand, the Montreux regime not only regulates the transit regime through the Turkish Straits, but also is a security regime that maintains balance and stability in the Black Sea.
We are the owner and implementer of this regime.
Now Romania, as a Latin state between Slavs and Turks, is planting a time bomb in the Black Sea under the American mandate, without any borders.
This base leaves our country, which must always remain neutral in the Black Sea in the future, open to many provocations through NATO membership.
Let’s be ready for all kinds of provocations in the Black Sea region before the American elections.
Among these provocations, we can say that there is a high probability that a process to terminate or amend the Montreux Convention (2026) will be initiated under the leadership of Romania.
Türkiye has been caught with great vulnerability in the geopolitical storm in the Black Sea.
The situation is worse than the Second World War conjuncture.
Because we live in the age of nuclear weapons and the Western world knows no limits in its determination to start and continue war.
*
Note to readers: Please click the share button above. Follow us on Instagram and Twitter and subscribe to our Telegram Channel. Feel free to repost and share widely Global Research articles.
Ret Admiral Cem Gürdeniz, Writer, Geopolitical Expert, Theorist and creator of the Turkish Bluehomeland (Mavi Vatan) doctrine. He served as the Chief of Strategy Department and then the head of Plans and Policy Division in Turkish Naval Forces Headquarters. As his combat duties, he has served as the commander of Amphibious Ships Group and Mine Fleet between 2007 and 2009. He retired in 2012. He established Hamit Naci Blue Homeland Foundation in 2021. He has published numerous books on geopolitics, maritime strategy, maritime history and maritime culture. He is also a honorary member of ATASAM.
Featured image is from InfoRos
