Fertility Rate in England and Wales Falls to Lowest Level Since Records Began in 1938
The biggest decline in fertility rates is among women in the 20-24 and 25-29 age groups, the latest data shows.
The fertility rate in England and Wales has fallen to the lowest level since records began, according to government data.
The average total fertility rate (TFR) – the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime – was 1.44 children per woman in 2023.
It is the lowest value since records began in 1938, new figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show.
Some 591,072 live births were recorded – the lowest number since 1977.
Figures for 2022 showed the average TFR had declined to 1.49 children per woman, down from 1.55 in 2021.
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Greg Ceely, head of population health monitoring at the ONS, said:
“Total fertility rates declined in 2023, a trend we have seen since 2010.
“Looking in more detail at fertility rates among women of different ages, the decline in fertility rates has been the most dramatic in the 20-24 and 25-29 age groups.”
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This latest data follows analysis commissioned by Sky News showing the UK’s fertility rate is falling faster than any other G7 country.
Research by thinktank the Centre for Progressive Policy (CPP) discovered the fertility rate has dropped by 18.8%.
Women have increasingly had children at older ages, with only one in five women born in 1997 having a child before the age of 25 – the lowest of any earlier generation.
Not feeling ready, financial pressures and not finding the right partner are preventing millennials who want children from trying to have them, research from the UCL Centre for Longitudinal Studies has found.
The cost of housing and childcare have been cited as reasons, as well as people not feeling ready to have children because other major life events are happening later.
A fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is needed on average to ensure the long-term “natural” replacement of the population, according to the ONS.
Yet the rate has been falling since 2010 – and there is a similar picture globally.
The global total fertility rate was 2.3 children per woman in 2022, less than half the rate (5.3) in 1963, with most countries seeing a decline.
The lowest fertility rate is in Taiwan, where women are having 1.09 children on average, closely followed by South Korea with a rate of 1.11 and Singapore at 1.17, according to CIA data.
Ukraine – which was invaded by Russia in 2022 – Hong Kong, Macau, Italy and Moldova are also seeing the lowest rates.
Despite falling fertility rates, populations can still continue to grow for some time.
This is because it takes time for population growth to reverse, and also because of factors such as immigration.
Comment by Dr. William Makis
In 2021 when COVID-19 vaccines rolled out, the 20-24 age group would have been 17-21.
This is one of the reasons why so many universities and colleges implemented draconian COVID-19 vaccine mandates on all their students.
This had to be one of the desired outcomes. There is no way around it.
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