Former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, one of the leading neocon architects of the Greater Middle East and North Africa Project launched by the US after September 11, 2001, wrote a propaganda article titled “The Perils of Isolationism” in the Foreign Affairs magazine dated August 20, 2024.
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Screenshot from Foreign Affairs
In the article that marketed the dangers of the US withdrawing from the world stage against Russia and China to the American public, the US is described as a state that brings peace, tranquility and security to the world.
Interestingly, there is not a single line in the article about Israel’s genocide in Gaza.
Image is from the Public Domain
Rice, who served as National Security Advisor to President George W. Bush during the US’s most aggressive period in 2003, said in one of her articles, “We will change the borders of 22 countries in the Middle East and North Africa.”
I consider the only correct paragraph in Rice’s unnecessarily long (15-page) article in Foreign Affairs to be the following:
“The United States is now a different country; exhausted by eighty years of international leadership, some of it successful and celebrated, some dismissed as failures. The American people are different, too; they have less faith in their institutions and the viability of the American dream. Years of divisive rhetoric, Internet echo chambers, and ignorance of the complexities of history even among the best-educated young have left Americans with a fragmented sense of common values. Our elite cultural institutions are responsible in these areas. They have rewarded those who destroyed the United States and ridiculed those who praised its virtues. To address Americans’ lack of faith in their institutions and in each other, schools and colleges must change their curricula to offer a more balanced view of U.S. history. These and other institutions must foster healthy debate, encouraging competing ideas rather than creating a climate that reinforces existing views.’’
A Regressive U.S. and the Never-ending Wars
With 248 years of recorded history, the United States is in rapid decline. The pains of moving away from the dollar-based global economic system and establishing a new multipolar world order are increasing geopolitical tensions everywhere at global, continental and regional levels. The US and its integral part, the EU, continue to seek and provoke adventures far beyond their capabilities and power for the continuation of the global hegemony led by the US, sending the message that they will not allow a new order.
Canadian economist and author Professor Michel Chossudovsky said in the spring of 2011:
“The world is at a dangerous crossroads. The US and its allies have launched a military adventure that threatens the future of humanity. The ultimate goal is the conquest of the world under the guise of “human rights” and “Western democracy”… The hegemonic project of the US in the post-9/11 period is the globalization of the war that the US-NATO military machine has spread to all regions of the world with its emphasis on covert intelligence operations, economic sanctions and “regime change.”
Many of the methods Chossudovsky wrote about have been implemented by the US to date, but despite all the wars, conspiracies, government changes, military coups and color revolutions, economic blockades and sanctions, the US cannot achieve the ultimate goal.
For example, the number of countries that have imposed sanctions on Russia in the Ukraine-Russia war that started on February 24, 2022 is around 40 out of 193 UN member states. The majority are EU members, and the rest are American vassal states such as Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Singapore and Japan. This means that the overwhelming majority of the world does not comply with the US. The US cannot be a game changer, especially with the endless wars it has started after 2001 and the death, chaos and deprivation it has brought to the continents. It is stirring up and provoking countries with colorful coups through institutions and individuals purchased with irresponsible printed dollars, but it is not getting results. If the US had been successful, there would be no Ukraine-Russia war today, nor would there be an Israel-Gaza war. The fact that the US unconditionally stands by Israel, which commits genocide, in the Gaza War that is taking place today, and that Netanyahu received a 3-minute standing ovation in the US Congress show that Washington can never be a honest broker and cannot set up games anymore. In short, US initiatives make headlines on the first day, but the initiative in question is forgotten a week later.
A Disappearing State Ukraine
2.5 years have passed since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, which was provoked through Ukraine’s NATO membership for US geopolitics and rimland consolidation, on February 24, 2022. Ukraine, which has the entire media and propaganda power of the West, the open support of the EU and NATO, against Russia, whose depth, especially its manpower and defense industry resources are incomparably vast, is now an exhausted state. Its economic power has regressed to a level incomparable to that of before the war. Its demographic power has been severely damaged. Although Ukraine’s suicide attack on a historically significant settlement like Kursk was aimed at preventing losses in the Donbas region and diverting Russia’s attention from there, Russia did not shift forces from strategic Donbas for Kursk. Russia is gaining on the Donbas front every passing day. If the war is not stopped, the possibility of Ukraine losing the Odessa port and being completely cut off from the sea may even come to the fore.
Ukrainian troops prepare to fight Russian forces in Donbass (Source: Indian Punchline)
The USA’s Success in EU and NATO
On the other hand, the most successful front in this war is the weakening of the EU through Ukraine and Russia War, making it completely dependent on the US for defense, and transforming NATO into a 32-member structure with the exaggerated Russian threat. NATO has not only expanded, but also its defense budgets have been increased excessively due to the war. Thus, military sea/air/land transportation corridors and new bases that will surround Russia from the North Sea, Adriatic, Aegean, Baltic, and Black Sea with American military equipment have been implemented. Furthermore, the US has decided to place medium-range nuclear missiles in German territory, which is a semi-colony, in 2026, which is an extremely dangerous and provocative picture. The US side, which was able to establish a balance in nuclear and conventional deterrence in the Cold War, no longer knows any limits in nuclear provocation.
The US Nuclear Strategy document leaked to the press last week revealed the nuclear armament targeting China. Let’s add the hostility towards Russia created in the public opinion of the US and the EU to these provocative successes of the US. For example, rumors that Russia will turn towards Poland and the Baltic states after Ukraine are frequently spread by the Western media these days. However, Russia’s capacity is limited. This perception of threat can be created despite the fact that the Baltic Sea has turned into a NATO lake and there is no direct land connection to Russia’s Kaliningrad Oblast. The main reason for this is of course to be able to sell weapons of the US military industry through the war created in Europe and to keep the the hostility against Russia alive, to be able to maintain political and military pressures, and to keep NATO’s raison d’être alive. There is no other country in NATO and the EU that questions the Russian threat created by the US, other than Hungary and Slovakia. UK is unable to act outside the US. The situation of France, which produced great military leaders and strategic thinkers such as Charles De Gaulle and Andre Beaufre, is deplorable.
The situation of Germany, the economic locomotive of the EU, is worse than a colony. Its industry and economy are in decline. Even the oldest and most prestigious shipyard in Germany, such as Meyer, which was founded in 1795, is on the verge of bankruptcy and the government is launching a rescue operation.
The situation of Türkiye is complicated. Thanks to Article 19 of the Montreux Convention, we are able to maintain our active neutrality, but due to the economic pressures of the US and the West, we continue to make concessions in every field. On August 14, the American USS Wasp amphibious assault ship, whose primary duty is to protect Israel in the Gaza War, and our TCG Anadolu amphibious assault ship and TCG Gökova frigate were able to conduct transition training in the Mediterranean.
We learn about this activity from American sources. While the government is doing this, the opposition remains silent. In other words, in defiance of Atatürk, we have been dragged into a situation close to the cooperation of Damat Ferit of the Istanbul Government and the American Mandates of the Sivas Congress during the armistice period (1919-20).
However, in the period between the two world wars, which is very similar to today’s conjuncture, that is, during Atatürk’s time, Türkiye was very careful in its balance policy while its military, economic and demographic power was very weak. In August 1935, our Minister of Foreign Affairs Tevfik Rüştü Aras summarized the situation due to the increasing Italian fascism and threat as follows:
“In our opinion, the French-English friendship on one side of Europe, the Turkish-Soviet friendship on the other side and the good relations between them constitute the main basis of European peace. All other combinations are being worked around this.”
The Biggest Danger Is the US Vassals
In the current conjuncture, the best scenario for the US is that a new war will break out in Europe when the last Ukrainian soldier dies and the war is over. Undoubtedly, this war will be caused by the irresponsible vassals of the US, which never wants a direct conflict with Russia and pats them on the back.
Countries such as Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Germany and the U.K. are open to all kinds of scenarios. Moldova can also be added to this list. The sworn mandate holders and imperialist vassals in Türkiye are also ready for the tasks given.
However, we also need to mention a great risk. As long as these weak and vassal states are not controlled by the US and are not told to stop, they can act irrationally and illogically and directly start a Russia-US conflict.
It should not be forgotten that world military history is full of surprises. In a conjuncture where Russia’s interior is being hit with American and British weapons, a provocative attack is being carried out in Kursk under the hidden command of NATO forces, and F16 fighter jets are being given to Ukraine, how Russia will respond to the US and its friends is at least as uncertain and risky as the reaction Iran will show to Israel after the killing of the Hamas leader. What if this response eliminates the conventional escalation ladder to the point of a nuclear escalation?
While the US continues to arm Ukraine with a $60 billion sale last month and Israel with a $20 billion sale last week, Russia is arming and most likely training its ally Iran. Does the US making a rational judgment before unleashing its vassals on Russia? We don’t know.
However, one week before the Hamas attack in Israel on October 7, 2023, Biden’s National Security Advisor Sullivan wrote, “We are living the best peaceful period in history in the Middle East.” How much can we trust the US? How many USs are there in the US? Is the US a state that can control itself?
The Situation in the Indo-Pacific Is Complicated
The West’s intrigues are ahead of its political, military and economic power on the Indo-Pacific front. The direct participation of the American ambassador in protests in Bangladesh, as in Ukraine in 2014, summarizes everything. (If Americans say democracy is coming, we should be very careful.) It is not sustainable for this poor country, which is adjacent to the Myanmar-China Econonmic Corridor in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, to surrender to a pro-American government with freely printed American dollars. Because this country is squeezed between India and Myanmar and has no chance of implementing American geopolitics in this geography. On the other hand, the signal flare of a colorful coup in Indonesia has started with street protests.
In fact, the scenario experienced in all underdeveloped or developing countries is repeating itself. In states where governments drowning in corruption act uncontrollably and ignore the people in order to maintain their positions, the US sees this weakness very well and evaluates it and presses the button when necessary in a way that will benefit itself. However, these colorful moves do not bring permanent results. These states are faced with the choice of either chaos and civil war under the guidance of the US or living in peace alongside Asian powers.
As long as the unity of China, Russia and India within the BRICS and SCO continues, it is no longer possible for the Anglo-Saxons to be the game changers in the Asian geography, especially in Central Asia. As long as the big three stand firm and solidarity is achieved, such attempts at a color revolution will not gain a character other than being temporary.
New Order Has Been Established
The war between Russia and Ukraine is actually a war between the US and those who say no to the Western hegemony led by the Anglo-Saxons. This conflict is not regional but global. Global balance centers have now been established. While those on the side of the US are states that were occupied by the US after 1945 and vassalized in the US sphere of influence, there is China and Russia at another pole. The third pole is India and the majority of the non-aligned states of the Cold War period, called the Global South. In this process, we see that the other two poles are trying to establish a balance against the US and its vassals through organizations such as BRICS and the SCO against the US pole.
The War of Transportation Corridors
The transport corridors connecting Europe, the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Basin in Asia, especially China’s Belt and Road Initiative, are shaping the geopolitical future. The US wants to render the transportation corridors that will challenge its hegemony dysfunctional through color revolutions, civil wars and regional conflicts.
Today, the China-Europe northern corridor via Ukraine has become dysfunctional. Every kind of provocation continues to damage the CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) via Pakistan, the Myanmar-China Corridor via Bangladesh, and also the Iran-China oil pipelines and transportation lines. In the meantime, serious mistakes and unexpected events also come its way. For example, the Red Sea-Mediterranean passage leg, which is indirectly outside of their control, has become dysfunctional with the Gaza war.
American Military Alliances Are Spreading
The US believes that if it prevents economic integration and political unity in the Asian continent, it will also prevent military structures. It is currently unlikely that the SCO and BRICS will turn into a military alliance system. However, the US is progressing very quickly in the Indo-Pacific region in terms of military structure and cooperation with its own vassals and allies. The transition of Japan and South Korea to a joint command structure, the establishment of the AUKUS alliance with Australia and England, and the provision of nuclear attack submarines to Australia after 2026; the total American military presence in Japan and the USA reaching 100 thousand, the agreement reached with the Philippines for new military bases, and the moves to increase military cooperation between the Philippines, Australia, Japan, and Canada are recent examples. (The recent collision of the Philippines with Chinese Coast Guard ships in Sabina Shoal was a provocative move. Because the television and news teams of important Western news agencies were also on the Philippine ships.)
Gaza War and the Mediterranean
Image source
Israel’s initiation of the Gaza War by drawing the USA to its side with a great fait accompli is a link in the process of the fragmentation of Asia. In this case, the USA, by postponing its Indo-Pacific priorities, will help Israel. Because it is known that a leadership that does not come to Israel’s side during the election period will not have a chance to win in the election. The 3-minute standing ovation given to Netanyahu in Congress is an expression of this situation. However, the process backfired. While Israel was looking for an easy victory, the war was prolonged. The Yemeni Houthis cut off the Red Sea maritime trade route. The US and its allies could not fully control this route.
The US’s Mediterranean Vision
It goes without saying that even if the US does not have the power, it will try every way to establish a puppet Kurdistan state in northern Iraq and Syria, to influence the government and opposition in Türkiye and to disintegrate the secular and nation-state structure.
The real reason for the tragedy in Gaza is that the US killed Arab nationalism in the region, especially after the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, and succeeded in disintegrating the Arab States. The Arabs who moved away from nationalism were divided and weakened again by the U.S-NATO and Israel through Islamization and religion.
The US tried the successful model it applied to the Arabs for the Turks. However, despite all the Islamist parties that came to power with the support of the West after 1980, plots, provocations and moves such as the FETÖ (CIA backed Fetullah Gulen Islamist Organization) coup attempt, the Turkish people have persistently not given up their nationalist and secular identity. Although the attempts to transform Turkish nationalism into American Turanism (Pan Turkism) were partially successful after the 1970s, they could not create a permanent effect.
However, as long as Türkiye remains in NATO, it will continue to remain in the sphere of influence of US geopolitics. It will not be possible for it to have the final say. We saw this in the acceptance of Finland and Sweden into NATO. While burying our soldiers martyred by the terrorist PKK, the Turkish Grand National Assembly approved the US request without a single dissenting opinion. Sweden was made a NATO member. The US wants a divided Mediterranean. The US wants absolute control of the Suez Canal, the Turkish Straits and the Aegean Sea Passages. The US wants a puppet Kurdistan (Second Israel) covering the lands of Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkiye. However, it is not powerful enough to do it.
The Iran Factor
Iran’s resistance to the US with its anti-imperialist identity in the region is very valuable for global and continental balances. Iran is a very critical country that controls both Basra, the Caspian and the Central Asian basin.
Just like Türkiye, it is at the center of the continents and basins. It is indispensable in both maritime and continental approaches of global dominance theses. If its natural resource wealth is added to this, its geopolitical importance emerges. Iran’s surrender to Anglo-Saxon hegemony provides the greatest support in the siege of Turkiye and Russia. Therefore, both Turkiye and Russia should always maintain good relations with Iran. Within this framework, Iran’s presence in Russia’s North-South Transit corridor is important for the continuation of stable relations between the two states. In recent months, Armenia’s exit from Russia’s sphere of influence and approaching the West to the extent of conducting joint military exercises with the US; Turkiye’s casting a shadow on relations by making comments at the highest level that belittle Azerbaijan, its efforts to normalize relations with Armenia upon the request of the US, while Azerbaijan could not obtain concessions from Yerevan for a peace agreement, and most importantly, the removal of the Zangezur Corridor from the agenda do not serve Turkish geopolitics. They serve the US’s Balkanization of the Caucasus. In this context, Putin’s visit to Azerbaijan is extremely important. It is a great message to Turkiye, which says two states and one nation. I hope Turkiye, which is approaching Armenia under US pressure, has received this message.
Lessons for Turkiye
Ankara should act in line with the difficulties and losses it has experienced in the last 22 years. A puppet Kurdish state cannot be allowed in the south. Türkiye cannot be allowed to be divided through discussions on a new constitution and the concept of being Turkish. The Caucasus Wall (set by Western powers), which Atatürk said “its formation will be our destruction” 104 years ago, cannot be allowed in the South Caucasus.
We cannot allow to be cut off from the Aegean and the Mediterranean through the EU’s Seville map. It is unacceptable to allow the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus to be dragged into a new Annan Plan scandal through attempts at refederation talks.
It is unacceptable for NATO to use our sovereign rights, primarily the implementation of Article 19 of the Montreux Convention in the Black Sea, as a tool for American geopolitics. Again, as exemplified by the joint training of our navy in the Mediterranean and the American warships that came to the aid of Israel, which committed genocide in Gaza, through our NATO membership, an impersonal and unprincipled security policy cannot be allowed.
It seems that Ankara is paying the price of being drawn into the financial traps of the US and the EU in the last 22 years, and of shifting from a production economy and statism to a neoliberal consumer economy that has been rampant with full privatization, corruption, and hostility towards nature and the public, with geopolitical concessions.
Future generations can restore economic losses but geopolitical losses can only be recovered through war. The primary duty of governments is to protect geopolitical interests without fighting.
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Ret Admiral Cem Gürdeniz, Writer, Geopolitical Expert, Theorist and creator of the Turkish Bluehomeland (Mavi Vatan) doctrine. He served as the Chief of Strategy Department and then the head of Plans and Policy Division in Turkish Naval Forces Headquarters. As his combat duties, he has served as the commander of Amphibious Ships Group and Mine Fleet between 2007 and 2009. He retired in 2012. He established Hamit Naci Blue Homeland Foundation in 2021. He has published numerous books on geopolitics, maritime strategy, maritime history and maritime culture. He is also a honorary member of ATASAM.
He is a regular contributor to Global Research.
