The thunderous salvos of fireworks in celebration of the New 2007 Year have quieted down, and the lengthy Christmas vacations are finally over. On these festive days, heads of all states must have been wishing their peoples peace and prosperity, health and happiness. All of them were probably sincere in saying this. For who, being in power and absolutely sane, would wish to invite disaster?
It depends on the way you look at it, though. The intentions voiced by top US and Israeli executives in December 2006 – January 2007 can hardly be referred to as good. Because intensive preparations for a nuclear missile war cannot be described as a blessing for either their own nations or any other peoples. However, it is the US and Israel that appear to be preparing such a «gift» for the world in the new 2007 year.
Preparations for the New Year celebration have for whatever reason (it would be interesting to find out the actual reason) diverted public attention from the interview which Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert gave on December 11, 2006 to the German TV channel SAT 1. This interview, however, came as a bomb explosion. The Israeli Prime Minister, annoyed by the interviewer’s question about U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates’ statement that Iran had concerns about Israeli nuclear weapons, answered in exasperation, «You had better ask Gates about it!». After this, declaring that Israel «had never threatened anyone with annihilation, whereas Iran openly threatens to wipe Israel off the map», he said exactly the following, «Can you say that this is the same level, when you are aspiring to have nuclear weapons, as America, France, Israel (highlighted by me – D.B.) and Russia?».
In this way, therefore, Israel’s possession of nuclear weapons was finally confirmed at the top Israeli level!
So while the world community has until now been content with Israel’s assertions that it will «not be the first country that introduces nuclear weapons to the Middle East», Olmert’s words gave the world’s leading politicians a lot to think about.
It now appears that Israeli leaders from Ben-Gurion to Sharon have been hoaxing both the UN Security Council and the IAEA for no less than forty years since the nuclear reactor was built in the Dimona desert, which has never been inspected by these international organizations. Even Moses spent less time leading Jews around the desert.
Israel’s unwillingness to join the international Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) is now viewed in a different light. And as Israel is the only country in the Middle East that has a monopoly on nuclear weapons, the secret Israeli plan for using tactical nuclear weapons to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities is now becoming a reality.
Unlike Israel, Iran has joined the NPT and signed the additional protocol to the treaty, thus committing itself to unequivocal compliance with all provisions of these international acts. Besides, Iranian nuclear facilities are being created under IAEA’s control.
Of course, Israeli possession of nuclear weapons has been an open secret for more than a decade.
In December 2005, General Yury Baluyevsky, chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, declared that «Israel had already for a long time – I’m stressing it – really possessed a substantial arsenal of nuclear weapons».
A year later, on December 7, 2006, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said in testimony to a Senate committee that Israel possesses nuclear weapons, which partly explains Iran’s desire to have nuclear weapons of its own. Notably, it is the first time that a high-ranking US official made a statement on Israel’s possession of nuclear weapons, timed to recognition of this fact by the Israeli Prime Minister. Prior to this, the US administration had preferred playing up to Israel in its desire to preserve «non-transparency» of the national uranium project.
Israel’s nuclear program was launched in 1952, and the first Israeli nuclear weapons were produced as far back as 1967-1968 at the nuclear complex in Dimona in the Negev desert, located mostly underground and possessing a full cycle of nuclear weapons production.
Israel has nuclear delivery vehicles – US-built F-15 and F-16 aircraft, as well as three German-built diesel-electric submarines of the same class – Dolphin, Tekuma and Leviathan, capable of carrying up to 20 surface to surface torpedoes.
Israel also has in its arsenal up to 300 medium-range ballistic missiles Jericho 1 (with a range capability of 500 – 600 km) and Jericho 2 (with a range capability varying, by different estimates, between 1,500 and 3,500 km).
This is more than enough to eliminate the most serious, according to Israeli leaders, Iranian threat – its nuclear weapons production plants. Israeli special services were convinced that Iran would be able to obtain its first nuclear bomb between 2005 and 2007. Now that we are in the critical year 2007, it may only mean, according to experts from Mossad (Foreign intelligence service) and Aman (Military intelligence), that Israeli nuclear monopoly in the region is drawing close to an end. Therefore, one should hurry.
Israel already has experience of destroying nuclear facilities of its unfriendly neighbors. In 1981, the Israelis successfully planned and conducted the so-called operation «Babylon». In the course of this operation, Israeli aircraft bombed the Osirak light-water reactor under construction near Baghdad in Iraq. The Israelis conducted the air raid against Osirak, though it was being built by the French …
The currently planned Israeli attack using tactical nuclear weapons, which may be arbitrarily designated as «Babylon-2», has as its key targets the uranium enrichment centrifuges that may be used in manufacturing nuclear weapons in Natanz, the nuclear reactor and unique underground storage sites for uranium-containing gas in Isfahan, as well as the heavy water reactor in Arak. State and political leaders of Israel believe that destruction of these facilities is going to at least seriously delay implementation of the Iranian nuclear program, if not wipe it out. On the whole, there are up to six identified Iranian nuclear facilities that may become potential targets for elimination by Israeli aggressors.
The Bushehr nuclear power facility in the south of Iran with a 1,000 MW pressurized water reactor being built with Russian assistance is no exception.
Israeli and US representatives have more than once discussed the possibility of such an attack using bunker-buster bombs with nuclear warheads. True, it was said that Israel might only use tactical nuclear weapons in this operation if the US refused to participate, so that Israel would have to face Iran on its own.
No matter how one regards disclosure of Israeli plans for a «preventive» nuclear strike – an information leak meant to put pressure upon Teheran, an attempt to «untie the US hands» or preparation of world public opinion for a nuclear war to be launched by Israel, one thing is clear – Israel is backed by the US.
As far back as in 2000, Israel and the US signed an intergovernmental agreement on cooperation and scientific exchange in the energy field. This agreement opened access for Israeli scientists to research laboratories of the US Department of Energy and its impressive array of data in the field of nuclear engineering. Signing this agreement, the US actually canceled the restrictions imposed on Israel after it refused to join the NPT.
Doing this, the US, on one hand, ensured itself, with the help of Israel and its «non-transparent» nuclear potential, comprehensive control over the Middle Eastern region. On the other hand, in the event of Israeli nuclear aggression against Iran, which may go beyond the boundaries of the Middle and Near East, the US will wash its hands, affixing the blame to Israel’s intransigently belligerent posture. It is not at all concerned that a considerable group of states may get involved in the conflict, too.
The operation planned by Washington and Tel Aviv is going to be the first use of nuclear weapons since 1945 when the US dropped nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, thus starting the first epoch of nuclear wars in the world’s history. And though the TNT equivalent of the bombs Israel plans to use is 15 times less than that of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima, the consequences of their use are going to be terrible.
The thing is not even that Iran may stop its 2.5 million barrels per day oil export or, say, block the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40% of the world’s oil exports is taken out on a daily basis. Even the bleak prospect of having Iranian anti-ship missiles turn the Persian Gulf into a mass grave for the US Navy group, which is currently deployed there and which may well participate in the strike against Iran, may seem only an overture to a greatest tragedy. Though, for the US, losing even a single aircraft carrier may be equal, in terms of its psychological effect, to the events of September 11, 2001.
It may not be ruled out that Iran – the country which is not called anything but «terrorist №1» in both Israel and the US – may make a retaliatory move, using its Shahab-3 missiles equipped with radiological warheads, better known as warheads of the so-called «dirty» type. Such a warhead may be equipped with 500-700 kg of semi-enriched dustlike uranium concentrate. Even a single missile launch may mean a dozen of Chernobyls for Israel and the US army group – just as for other countries in the Middle East.
Would it not be advisable for «hot heads» in Israel and the US to heed the words of U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who referred to Iran’s desire to possess a nuclear potential as an attempt to establish a power balance in the region, noting that Iran needs a nuclear arsenal as deterrence against Israel?
By the way, this is not the first time that these opinions have been voiced in the US. On November 16, 2005, the US National Security Archive disclosed documents dating back to Richard Nixon’s presidential term, which indicate that the US Department of State during the Cold War was seriously concerned that its key Middle Eastern ally might launch a nuclear arms race in the region.
A 1969 memorandum from Assistant Secretary of State Joseph J. Sisco refers to existing intelligence on «Israel’s rapidly developing a capability to produce and deploy nuclear weapons», despite its commitment not to be the first to introduce nuclear weapons into the region.
Joseph J. Sisco asked Secretary of State William Rogers to try and curb Israeli ambitions before it is too late. «If this process continues, and it becomes generally assumed that Israel has the bomb, it will have far-reaching and even dangerous implications for the U.S.», —the Assistant Secretary of State wrote. Speaking of the perilous consequences, he especially emphasized that «Israel’s possession of nuclear weapons would do nothing to deter Arab guerrilla warfare…, on the contrary it would add a dangerous new element to Arab-Israel hostility …».
This gives added substance to the warning that came in Dmitry Sedov’s article «2007 to open a new page in the world’s history», in which the author refers to motivations underlying Teheran’s aspirations for nuclear parity with Israel and the likelihood of a regional nuclear conflict.
Dmitry Sedov also refers to ways of avoiding this conflict. If the world community is genuinely interested in finding a solution for this problem, «there immediately emerges an option for establishing a regional nuclear-free zone in the Middle East. Under this option, Israel would get an official guarantee of military assistance from the US in the event of a military aggression and would destroy its bombs, whereas Iran would light-heartedly renounce uranium enrichment, buying finished fuel elements from Russia». In this case, however, one would need to «take a step towards settlement of the Middle Eastern problem on principles of equality, which appears unthinkable to the US and Israel. For the following step would mean radical concessions on the part of Israel, which would be the only way to peace, – withdrawal from occupied territories to the boundaries defined by the UN, and establishment of an independent Palestinian state». And this is something to which Washington and Tel Aviv are adamantly opposed.
It should be unambiguously stated that, in the event of an Israeli nuclear attack against Iran, the US will automatically become an accessory of the aggressor in creating nuclear weapons, their proliferation in the Middle East and their use in an armed conflict that cannot help growing into a big nuclear war.
