Global Research

The leader of the winning Democratic Party in the parliamentary elections in Kosovo Hashim Tachi announced that right after December 10 the authorities of the country will proclaim its independence. The announcement made by Tachi evoked the predictable reaction of the EU, as one of the members of the international “three” on identifying the status of Kosovo, which replaced the UN after the failure of the Ahtisaari plan. The truth is that at present moment the UN is too concentrated on the Near East, to really take an interest in the Balkans and that’s why is willing to solve this problem as soon as possible.

The Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the EU Member States call upon the Kosovo Albanians to refrain from one-sided declaration of independence, whereas Washington promises to recognize the independence of the country already in January. Russia’s viewpoint is clear; it is against the separation from Serbia and suggests “wide autonomy” instead. Practically the world found itself in a diplomatic deadlock, which is fraught with inner tensions in the Balkans. The truth is that the EU special representative for the South Caucasus Peter Semneby is more optimistic about things. “I hope that the declaration of independence of Kosovo will not become a destabilizing factor in the Balkans,” he said also adding that in this case the disposition of the EU depends on the fact that the Kosovo problem is a special case. “Every conflict has its own history, its specific character and every conflict needs an individual approach, respecting the international law. The resolution of the Kosovo problem must not have any influence on the resolution of other conflicts but perhaps it is inevitable that Kosovo will give birth to hopes or apprehensions for other unsolved problems. Nevertheless, the EU is always for the resolution of any kind of conflict exceptionally from point of view of international law,” emphasized the Finnish diplomat. In his turn the Minister for Foreign Affairs of Sweden Carl Bildt announced that Hashim Tachi must understand the difference between the announcements made by an oppositional politician and by responsible political figures.

Several years ago Carl Bildt was the active mediator in the negotiations held over the issue of the status of Kosovo, which he called “the most sensitive region in Europe, where any abrupt movement may be fatal”. The EU representatives and the UN Administration in Kosovo say that Tachi most probably will put the declaration of independence off till a more suitable period, to achieve a maximum support abroad. “Tachi will take an advantageous position, but he will do nothing unless Washington and the EU key Member States give him the permission. He very carefully follows America’s advice. And they choose mid January,” quotes the British The Guardian the words of a UN official, working in the capital of Kosovo Pristina.

By the way, the headquarters of NATO and UN in Kosovo have designed contingency plans, taking into consideration several possible unpleasant scenarios in the development of events, among them inter-ethnical violations and massacres, attacks by the underground military groupings of both parties, crisis and the seizure of the Northern regions of Kosovo by Serbia, which will bring to separation of the country. The fact that the creation of the seventh state on the ruins of Yugoslavia is happening with the agreement of the International Community, may have decisive consequences for the neighboring countries. This is particularly applicable for Bosnia, where the non-operating model of three-body state, invented by Dayton, is still preserved, political instability is being observed, and the Bosnian Serbs are looking forward to the Kosovo crisis coming to a head.

The statements about the “Kosovo precedent”, which may be used in resolution of conflicts in post-Soviet areas, and in particular in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, are not supported by the critics. The most important thing is that independence of Nagorno-Karabakh was won and not granted. This is a very important factor in conflict regulation process. One thing is being granted this independence by someone and another thing is to win it. Nagorno-Karabakh doesn’t owe anything to anyone. This is why Azerbaijan and Georgia are more afraid of the independence of Kosovo than Serbia is. Everything is clear here, if Kosovo is separated, there will be war. In case with Karabakh the renewal of the military actions will end as quickly as they start. And the thing is not in Armenia, the World Community has several key viewpoints, which impede Baku’s efforts of “liberating their lands: the Middle East is the phantom of the independent Kurdistan. Another important factor that shouldn’t be left unmentioned is the oil pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, gas pipeline Baku-Erzrum and the new gas pipeline from Turkey to Greece and then to Europe. Unleashing a new war in such conditions will put the entire world under a menace, which is clear no one wants. According to Peter Semneby, Azerbaijan develops very quickly and thinks it’s powerful, but this doesn’t mean that it can resolve conflict with military or economic pressure. These hopes of Azerbaijan are simply exaggerated.