Yevgeny Satanovsky, President of the Institute of the Middle East:
The modern idea of US security structures is that it is not Osama bin Laden who is the number one danger but a man from Yemen with his al-Qaeda department. The danger from this man to Saudi Arabia and Bab-el-Mandeb – every ship crossing the Suez Canal sails through Bab-el-Mandeb between Yemen and Somalia – is much bigger than from al-Qaeda groups in Yemen.
The current situation may provide for a division of Yemen into two states – the Shafi south and the Zaidi-style north. Especially now that civil war is about to break out and Saudi Arabian influence in Yemen is minimal.
Al-Qaeda in Yemen is no more than an instrument which President Saleh uses to persuade the US administration that he is their strategic partner in need of financial and military support, especially amid present-day conditions.
In this situation, the US came to realize that old plans, which are absolutely irrelevant today, were focused on a non-actual danger. This means that America will lose here as well, just as it happened in Afghanistan and Iraq.
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